Winning Sports Betting Explained - Step-by-Step
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- Sports betting CAN be beaten - but it's not a matter of just making picks. You need to understand how prices and probability factor in. This is the foundational cornerstone of this channel. Understanding how sports betting works so you can beat it.
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0:00 - What Sports Betting Isn't
1:15 - Understanding Probability
3:05 - Understanding the Sports Betting Market
4:35 - Understanding Bankroll Management
5:47 - Finding Your Edge
7:02 - Putting It All Together - Sport
My Uncle Lou Sassole used to say "Betting is the man's way of risking the present for a chance to shape his future."
Bet Straight, bet against the Narrative. Bet against free picks given out on the internet. The End. You’ll Win. Don’t bet Teasers or Parlays. Don’t pay for picks. Bet on what feels UN-comfortable
Wong teasers suck. I agree with all the 1st guy said except not to tease or parlay ive been pretty profitable with certain point shaving parlay systems
There are certain numbers and situations u can move numbers in certain directions and parlay them to make up for the loss of value for buying points
@ricobond because the books are fully aware of this strategy and numbers are made accordingly plus the wong strategy is highly constricting. Tell me what's wrong with teasing a +4 up to +10 or a -2 1/2 to a + 3 1/2?
Parlay money line not bad just not as sexy of a payout in my opinion
Bet sizing helps too. Try stern
I really appreciate your website and this video ! Thank you!
your editing skills is a pleasure to eyes good job
You said everyones not a superhero of math but I once got a Star and a smiley face on my math test.
I'd love so much to see the Jack's personal picks at any sport in a whole week. Most of the handicappers we find on internet does not hit in high rates.
rate doesn't need to be that high, just enough to win more $ than you lose.
@@aFREEsportsbettingSYSTEM I think that depends on the way you bet. Losing 3 parlays but winning one can generate profits. Losing 3 small straight bets but winning a big one can generate profits. But if your bets are straight and with standardized amounts, of course the success rate is important.
Yeah, it is all about the way you bet. I found one amazing stat and a way to profit from it year after year, and that is all I need. Happy to share with anyone who checks in.
As for losing three parlays and winning one, if they are two team parlays, you might be a little in the hole, if they are three teams or more, you won't keep up a 25% pace.
@@brucepayton4823
Smooth delivery
Everything you said about finding an edge and rise a repeat , I turned 100 to a 1000 for the first time took me 2weeks .. but I bet the house on the National championship, an not just betting an average bet I let the house take me .. but I’m back to the grind . Gotta lose to under stand . Soon as I heard you say that I subscribed lol
i bet for fun not money, it sounds weird but this is how i have won more than lost, betting just makes the game more fun
I was going to say what a weirdo until I read your whole sentence 😅 it actually does make most if not all games more intriguing to watch. I apologize for the pre judgement 😂
I agree. I love sitting down every night to watch a few games with money on them. I have never kept tack of my winnings but I’m probably somewhere around even.
I sure would love to learn how to make a profit though. I need step by step instructions and not these videos where they just talk. The ADHD is strong in me and I find it hard to follow unless someone is showing me at the same time they are talking.
This guy should show the picks he made and why
@MikeMike-mt9sh I can teach you a very basic strategy for free 👊
Outside of that I won't teach you anything else for nothing but if you want a basic strategy that works very well I'll teach you.
@@MikeHart72listen up ADHD 🤗 here we go.....
Step #1 find a team that wins and bet on them to cover when their LOSING 👈 find a team that's -8 and if your watching the game many times you can pickup the team at -1 or -2
Step #2 or find a team that sucks like the carolina panthers 🏈 and and BET AGAINST them ingame When their winning 👈
You could also (2) team parlay certain moneylines using the same concept *very simple*
For instance I have a simple (2) team moneyline parlay for tomorrow -390 & -150 which = -105 parlay 🤷♂️
Sooo you have simple options to take those types of teams INGAME or you can put together two team parlays with that basic info, or you can ignore everything I said and find your own way 🤗
I operate differently than most of the "experts" but those are simple things you can do and that's about as far as my charity goes 👌
I'm only telling you basically what I'm going to put in my sports betting guide but you can spend some time off season to figure out the information you need to make what I told you work.......peace 🔥🦂
Dosent matter if the team is -8 -10 -13 -6 ect just get 6 points or better ingame and you will do much better than how you've been doing 👊
My favorite bets are the ones where it impossible to lose, if you handle the math right. New customer bonuses, extra odds payouts, deposit matches, etc. True, they don’t go on forever and over time the get offered less and less often and for smaller maximum amounts…but a buck is a buck.
Thanks for the video
If you are a long term winning sports bettor (and yes, I am) you need to understand that though it works, it is boring. The math is a grind, all things being (mostly) equal and I quite often find myself betting against the teams I liked when I was growing up but like they say in The Godfather, it’s not personal, just business.
Love your content Captain Jack! Was turned onto you & Unabated from your recent appearance on BJA’s podcast.
Thank you for the advice and keep up the great work!
One of the questions you should ask yourself is why am I placing this bet then look at the odds if you think they are good then place the bet the way to be a good sports better is to work out the odds yourself it's what is called putting in the work the reason I win money is because the bookmakers are lazy they copy each other with their prices.
Yea simply law of averages. If arsenal are 50/1 to beat spurs 3-0.... Just imagine that match gets played 50 times, if you think arsenal would win 3-0 at least once it's actually good value.
Cant admire enough...Valuable stuffs u explained...
I can give a better way to go about this info thats hes giving. If you start with $10 you need to roll it 20x to make a $million. But you will not go 20 straight wins. If you can hit a big parlay at the beginning of your season, then keep half the winnings then spread out equal amount to the number of teams you chose then roll for each week. Even taking loses your wins keep rolling forward.
Hello ! Thanks for the tips. Do you intend on adding MMA to your website ?
We're always looking to expand the surface area that bettors can use to attack sportsbooks. No ETA on when MMA will be added though.
Thanks brother
So I watched this to the end just for him to advertise his service to us lol.
Dang. Good information. New there was a catch though. Plug
Wait, some people are making joke in here but this was some really good information sir. Thank you! If you don't mind me asking, what is the name of the tool that you are using, to see all of the sports books at once? I believe something like that is extremely beneficial.
That's our site, unabated.com. You can check us out for free. When you're ready, sign up for a demo or webinar on how to use the product optimally.
How does match handicap and total works?
I have lots of questions
So could I pick my favorite 2 player props backed off data , player trends , etc and then use your tool to find the best value for my certain pick ? If so haven’t they combatted that wit the location requirements because you won’t be able to access every betting app based on your location? Also do you think choosing favorites at an alternate line that’s safe with a higher wager is smart after your unit size has went up ?
Yes, if you bring a projection, the Unabated Prop Screen can simulate that game 10,000 times and give you a median value to compare with a sportbook's median line. It'll also give you the full distribution of results.
Geolocation is a completely separate. Unabated works anywhere, but it is not a betting app. You need to find what sportsbooks are available to you in your location.
Alternate lines are a great way to profit and Unabated has tools to help with that. There's no such thing as a safe wager though.
Need flexible mind good memory. Good study of performance and little luck and your good handikapın. If you don’t have good point spread knowledge forget the winning.
Im new to betting and am filtering through all the bets to find the ones i prefer. In order to determine the smartest bets, i guess i need the proper online tools that you show and use through unabated? I dont bet big and am not sure about buying this or oddschecker yet but will if this is smartest/only way for ev’s etc?
A large portion of our site is free, including most of the odds screen. Our advice is to absorb all the free content (including the extensive education tab) and then take Premium membership for a test drive with a 5-day trial. Also, join our Discord (also free) and you'll find a lot of people at various stages of their sports betting journey. You'll find it very helpful in determining what's right for you. unabated.com/discord
Thank you am looking at it now
How do you read player props? With the explosion of PrizePicks, Underdog, etc I see every day when both the Over/Under prop odds are both negative (similar to Circa at 6:36).
For example, if a player's points line says Over 21.5 -120 / Under 21.5 -110, would this imply the better value is to take the Under at -110 but neither line is a favorite?
The double negative odds on player props always gets me confused.
Sportsbooks and DFS Pickem sites like Underdog & PrizePicks offer negative odds on either side so that they can make a profit. In your example of Over 21.5 -120 / Under 21.5 -110. The sportsbook is saying you can bet $12 to win $10 on the Over, or you can bet $11 to win $10 on the Under. Similar to how there are 38 spaces on a roulette wheel, but they only pay you 35:1 if you guess correctly which space the ball will land in.
@@UnabatedAhhh ok I see, I think I got it. So unlike team odds where one is a favorite (negative) and one is the underdog (positive), this logic doesn't apply to player props, instead, it offers different values when there are both negative odds but one negative odd doesn't necessarily indicate a favorite. I think that's right...?
Right. It's just a way to price it so the sportsbook profits either way. You'll notice this exists everywhere in sports betting:
Nets -130 / Pistons +110. You have to bet $13 to win $10 on Nets, $10 to win $11 on Pistons. That $2 between the $13 one bettor paid and the $11 payout another bettor received is known as the vig.
How Bookmaker control all players?
If sharp sports book has better odds meaning higher +
Than non sharpp ... which line would you choose ?
If the sharp book has better odds then you can either bet it there or not bet it at all. It's like if I was trying to sell you a dollar for $1.05 and somebody else was charging you $1.10. I have the better price, but you're still overpaying relative to the value of a dollar.
BRO IS SELLING SHOVELS 🗣️🗣️🔥🔥
I tend to listen to Long Shot Larry
Does your premium service point you directly to plays that have the greatest edge?
Yes, our odds screen quantifies your edge and allows you to quickly identify the greatest edges. You can check it out further on our site and ask any questions you have in our Discord: unabated.com/sports-betting-community
Lmao my boy jack a jets fan let’s gooooooo
Unless your in Florida and only have the hard rock app
Isn't a major disadvantage of using online books is that they have withdraw fees?
None of the regulated US sportsbooks have withdrawal fees. Some unregulated offshore books might, and some sites that are operating as DFS betting might, but none of the regulated US books.
@@Unabated thank you
I have ADHD and without step by step instruction as you are doing it I find it hard to follow along. Do you have any videos where you make your picks and explain why you chose them.
We do livestreams for premium subscribers on our site (unabated.com) where Jack talks about bets and why he bets them. We don't talk about individual bets much on this channel because 1) we're not about making picks 2) we try to keep this content a bit more evergreen.
@@Unabated I’m not looking for free picks. I would need a video showing what you picked and why you picked it. Oh well, I guess I will stick to my current method…..bet on games I want to sit and watch that night lol
I’ve never kept track of my winnings but I would guess I’m somewhere around even, give or take a few bucks. I don’t bet to win big I just like how it makes watching the games more exciting
Can a heavy favorite have value? I am starting a system in a market usually offering -220s to -240s but I see often the probabilities are much higher. Getting the averages shows me the probabilities are in to 80%s some of the teams this season have hit this bet 31 of 37 times or more. Please advise
Sure. Value is relative. So while a line of -220 to -240 implies a 68-70% probability, if you project a probability of 75% (-300) then it would have value.
@Unabated wow thanks for response! It is very rewarding to work on a system and see gains and improvement and something calculated to work over time. Having an edge. It feels good. Thanks for response and confidence boost.
Sir any help for Indian odds..
I still don't understand it
most of time we get everything wrong , thanks for clarifying
I think now one can win in sports betting.
U just got to know what to look for. For instance. Last night Flacco is -185 to throw an int. I could have laid the -185 but I can take a Houston defender at +600 or better to get an int. Took Nelson at +750. It’s obviously not a guarantee, but at +750 I throw a few peanuts to win the whole bag as opposed to throwing the whole bag to win a few peanuts with the -185.
I love long odds. Like +1500 for a basketball quarter to end in a tie.
Jack of all trades
For any betters starting out, throw $20 in and take chances on .25 bets to get an idea of where you're profitable, went from $20 to $75 in three days, tho my dumbass blew it almost as quickly 😂
How to know ur edge?
It depends on what type of bet you're making. If you're playing a Top Down approach, your edge is relative to your source of truth. If you're looking to bet on player props, your edge is relative to your projection for that player. We have a variety of tools at Unabated.com that help you quantify your edge.
How to contact you?
u can buy the packages on his websites 🇵🇸
@@fineline8348have u?
The only way to win sport betting is to not bet at all, save you money folks
"It's hard therefore don't even try" what a great mentality. I bet your life is a thrill
Lol you got the broke 🐱 mentality I’ve bet over thousands and profitable just never do parlays only straights and be smart with ur bankroll and don’t go tilt
If that’s true what DF you here?
Bet underdogs
Do you have a telegram channel
No, but we have an active Discord community which Jack posts in almost 24/7. unabated.com/discord
To be honest with you. I have gone there but am still confused. What is the purpose
Here’s a 8 minute video talking about how to succeed but an 8 minute video about how I’m not going to help you succeed. “Sharps” are also only correct 60% of the time. So following them isn’t the best idea either.
Sharp sports betting is a journey. We wouldn’t be able to cover it all in 8 mins. That’s why we built an entire site dedicated to helping you on your journey. All of the education portions of our site are completely FREE. HTTPS://unabated.com
Well if the sharps are correct 60% of the time and everyone else is at 45-50% then following the sharps is makin money. So if u can do better than 60% I’d love to see that.
@@g-mode5047 made an NFL model that’s gone 4/5 for playoffs so far. It’s also up over 70% for the last 5 weeks of the nfl season. Thank you very much.
@hall2014 that's means very little.....
If anything all that tells me is your model sucks 13 out of 18 weeks of the regular season.
Ps.....how did it do the WHOLE SEASON?
because If your just going to "highlight" that small part of your model?
........then my nfl teasers went 9-1 the first ten weeks of the nfl season lol 🏈
i can play that game too!
@@g-mode5047 I completed it week 9 asshole. I didn’t get more in depth with picks until i liked the data being pulled and averaged the way that it made sense. I I’m not trying to start shit but at least try and have a conversation about it before offering an opinion about something you don’t know about
Always bet on underdogs for highest profit
That depends on how often the underdogs you pick win. You have to remember, they are underdogs for a reason and lose more often than they win
Take it easy y'all..no more than 5 per sports bet.. deposit the small wins edit: withdraw the small wins
So it sounds like he is talking about arbitrage betting but a lot of people can't access multiple or many sportbooks at all in their states
Not exclusively arbitrage. You can use Unabated to find edges beyond just arbitrage. Having multiple sportsbooks to play at is key whether you are betting value or arbitrage.
For states with limited regulated options there are hundreds of offshore and underground sites. Many are reputable. The Unabated Discord can help identify good options: unabated.com/discord
I have a nfl 🏈betting strategy that beats the closing like 97/98% of the time.
I dont care about "closing line value" means very little to me but you guys seem to care about it alot 🤷♂️ sooo ill perfect it and then you can buy it.
*it beats the closing line by 3+ points*
So if a team opens up at -3 *ill call it at -3* and then before the game starts the line will be -6 or more......thats what im selling 🔥🦂💯
Lmao, If you can do that you can be a literal multi millionaire.
@how2win354 I have so far 😊 ill post my list and you can follow it for yourself.
I gave it to las vegas cris but I guess I can send it to some random guy on youtube aswell 🤷♂️
I completed my list by week 4 of the nfl football 🏈 season so everything you see was what it was......
Week 6 bills -7 -110 / Miami-6.5 -110
Week 8 sf 49ers -110 moneyline
Week 9 skip
Week 10 arizona +2.5 +100 / Dallas-5.5 / bills -6 -110
Week 11 miami -5.5 -110 / baltimore +1 -110
Week 12 greenbay +4 / greenbay v detroit OVER *no lines were posted at this time but whatever it opened at that's what you take*
Week 13 colts v titans over 40.5 -110
Week 14 dolphins-7 -110 / detroit moneyline-120
Week 15 browns -3.5 -110
Week 16 Pittsburgh +3 -110
Week 17 rams +4 -110 / greenbay +3 / Cincinnati v kc UNDER 50.5
Week 18 greenbay moneyline-125/ eagles moneyline-155/ rams +7/ tb +2.5
.......anyways I'm working on this strategy called JEREMY SCORPIOS "CLV" ADVANTAGE 🔥🦂💯
There's nothing like it and in a virtual world full of lying scamming frauds?
IM THE ONLY ONE THAT DOES WHAT THEY SAY THEY CAN DO 😌
So when I say I put in 8-10+ hour days going over information and creating strategies I meen it ✅️
& when I say it takes me 2-3 years to create and verify and "Edge" I meen it ✅️
Anyways these idiots can't do what I do and your NOT gonna learn what I do off a donbest, spankodds, or oddsjam screen lol......good luck 👌
Anyways I don't give a Sh*t about closing line value because I focus on more important things, but since the sports betting community cares about this so much *and I like conquering new projects* 🤗 I decided to work on this.
I should be done with it by 2025 🤔 and if it continues to beat the closing line and my projections are on point? then it's something worth at least $3000-4000 a year.
*Anyways just because you beat the closing line dosent meen your games always win*
But the product SHOULD do what I said and have you beating the closing line 97% of the time.
95-97% or so 🤷♂️ idk it's beat it every week so far......and I see no signs of that NOT continuing.
Listen man. If you figure out how to bet NFL games and they move 3 points in your favor even 60% of the time before kickoff. It's worth alot more money than you think. It would make you one of the best handicappers on the planet. Good luck.
@how2win354 well this is year one, and I'll know by year three if there is an edge or not.
The more impressive part is I capped the MAJORITY of the season by week 4 😌 and if it holds up that to me is the most impressive tbh.
Now I just just focus on leap frog 🐸
They post week 11 when week 9s over so I focus on week 11 while the majority are looking at week 10 😋 #leapfrog
I think brighton everton is going to be over 2.5
You think ...
I'm so new into this and have so many questions... bout to retreat to the depths of reddit unless any yall got resources for these convoS? Im in a state with only 2 books, so without an edge in price, what shld the next focus be? are there more benefits to researching props, vs spreads, vs money lines? All equal risk/reward!? Hellllllp 😢
I assume that is CT. 3rd book coming with Fanatics in a couple weeks. You might find people in your same position in our Discord. HTTPS://unabated.com/discord
Focusing on props is an option, they’re generally easier to beat but limits are lower. That makes them harder to scale upward.
@Unabated appreciate it! mind blown this was only 2 weeks ago, feels like I've aged 2yrs in betting lol
as
Please can tou explain me well
Are u interested in betting
basing betting on stats is not the best strategy, it's a indicator for arbitriage but i use a different strategy
What’s your strategy?
I have a spreadsheet that statistically predicts the score of any football match in any league in the world.
Share?
I bet small amounts and on favorites, always. Only on matches I feel confident about.
Smoothly selling false hopes.👏
❤❤❤😂😂😂😮😮😮😮😅😅😅😅
really a professional sports bettor and blackjack player. Ok I guess better at making money off CZcams videos.
Is oddsjam legit?
I think spank odds is better than oddsjam & probably don best premium 🤔
But to answer your question yes oddsjam is legit.
My NFL LIST 🏈 that I posted here went 16-7 over the season at -110/-115 odds
& my NFL 🏈 +10 PT teasers went 13-6 68% with the last one hitting +110 on week 18.
So year #1 of my NFL 🏈 TEASERS I went 13-5
Year #2 *this year* I went 12-6 👍 also hit two (4) team +110 dogs.
And year #3 the last year I will post these for free when my testing ends will start Sept 2024 👌
After that my edge will have held up for 3 years and will be safe enough for my client to bet.
Anyways there's your update 🔥🦂💯
Edit update:
I said on year #2 *this year* I went 13-6 🤦♂️ I apologize for that, I didn't go 13-6 I went 12-6 66% and two games out of those (18) I hit two 4team teasers @ +110 odds.
I've only recently taken interest in sports betting and quickly learning that just like any game, you should always try to beat the game, not just to play and get lucky to win. I've just came across and read through your thread on this video and thought the strategy was interesting. Is there somewhere I can follow more closely on your 'new' leap frog strategy?
@ChipmunkJesus45 i
I don't post my "main plays" on my public Twitter 👈
I use it as a "proving ground" for future strategies I'm working on.
jared babilis is the ONLY person who gets my main plays because he's been my client 2 1/2 years and it sucks that I only have one but he's the best one I could ever ask for.
Anyways captain Jack could help you alot aswell and I watch his videos for inspiration 😊 but if you want to learn something different and mabye find some other ways to attack sports betting?
Then I might be nice enough to share some stuff I'll be putting into my sports betting guide 👊
Just know that NOBODY WILL TEACH YOU EVERYTHING THEY KNOW AND THAT INCLUDES ME, but I can teach you enough and you can take it from there.
.......I can teach you what im willing to put into my book 📖
Sooo unfortunately I can't teach you "leap frog" because I'm doing so ill kill the edge lol *same with the teasers* but I can probably teach you a simple yet SOLID ingame strategy for betting & maybe a hockey 🏒 strategy that you can modify to play ingame or pregame.
@ChipmunkJesus45 hey 👋 can you see this message or does CJ still have me blocked.
Nobody wins long term at sports gambling..it's never been harder to predict..plus the vigs= no shot
Lie
How many times have you’ve been broke Jack?
When I first started out card counting, I would save up enough to go down to Atlantic City and try to beat their 6-deck games down there. Never successful. Then I discovered some edges away from the blackjack table that changed my life. I talk about my backstory in this interview:
czcams.com/video/KYH2uZV571A/video.htmlsi=Mbmt2ctI6lBWqarE
bro i lost my life savings whats wrong with you
If your going to listen to anyone who's likely NOT fraud on youtube and is actually trying to help people then mabye you should listen to this guy captain jack.
You ever watch Billy Madison? Remember the guy at the end with the lipstick 💄 well that guy looks like jack lol 😆 okay jokes aside.......there's ALOT of bs online and you likely fell victim to it but I believe this guy is one of few that makes videos that seem like they want to help.
......so don't be so quick to judge him unless you wanna end up on his list LMFAO!! 🤣
*go watch Billy Madison* peace
Thank you for wasting out time
HOW CAN U BEAT THE BOOKIES WHEN THEY BAR U IF U WIN????
Your question is not a matter of HOW can you beat them - but HOW LONG can you beat them. That's when the science of sports betting meets the ART of sports betting. Knowing how to continue to get money down when books impose limits and knowing how to make books not fear your action are key concepts in sustainable sports betting. Check out this video we made about it: czcams.com/video/2NSnFL8TbIU/video.html
i think your a typical salesman with an answer for everything