What China's Shrinking Population Means For The Global Economy
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- čas přidán 14. 05. 2024
- China remains home to 1.4 billion people. But that number is getting smaller.
The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported China's population slipped to 1.412 billion last year from 1.413 billion in 2021. The last time China saw negative population growth was in the 1960s.
Many experts believe that China's one-child policy, introduced in the 1980s, is one of the main reasons for the population decline.
"China's one-child policy was a mistake," said Yi Fuxian, an expert on Chinese population trends at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "China is worried because its economic outlook is bleak."
China revised its one-child policy to two in 2016 and three in 2021. But despite the change, younger adults don't seem to be in much of a mood to follow the policy and have more babies. The country has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, falling to an all-time low of 1.28 in 2020.
"This one-child policy has the Chinese people accustomed to one child per family," said Xiaolin Shi, an assistant teaching professor at Northeastern University. "So you can imagine how hard it is to change people's cultural attitude that has been such deeply rooted in their mind."
Some experts believe that slowing population growth is not only a concern for China but also a global concern, as the country has long been known as the world's factory.
"The global consumer is going to feel what's happening," said Mei Fong, author of 'One Child.' "What's happening in the bedrooms in China is actually affecting what's happening in the rest of the world."
Watch the video above to find out what caused China's population decline and how the shrinking population could alter the global economy.
Chapters:
0:00 - Introduction
01:14 - China's baby problem
04:32 - How the global economy depends on China
05:59 - How India's a threat to China
07:14 - What's next?
Produced by: Anuz Thapa
Narration by: Jordan Smith
Graphics by: Jason Reginato
Supervising Producer: Jeff Morganteen
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What China's Shrinking Population Means For The Global Economy
There's something perverse about being concerned about procreation and population mostly because one is worried about not having enough "cheap labor."
If you don't need cheap labor, don't use it, use expensive labor, but I'm fine with affordable goods.
True we should move on from this idea just as we have moved on from the cheapest labor - slaves
Ikr? They care more about cheap labor rather than human lives.
WORD
@@XOPOIIIOdisgusting take
Why do we swing so hard between “OMG AI AND ROBOTS WILL REPLACE US” and “OMG THERE’S NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE FOR THE FUTURE ECONOMY”??
Good question, these so called experts still see everything needs human labors in the age of AI and automation. Human Vs Machine, tell me which is more efficient and cost effective? Shouldn't big population be a burden?
Apples and oranges. AI isn't really going to replace blue collar jobs. It could easily wipe the Planning Production department of 300 people of a company that I worked for. Actual manufacturing jobs are pretty safe.
@@handaxia1251 exactly
automation isn't gonna be implemented until the elites feel that our numbers are managable and we can self regulate it.
@@rabbit251 not really. There is a 60% drop in the number of workers per factory. A third of workers produces three times or more goods
Also in china and many asian countries you don't marry your spouse, you marry their family. It's just way too burdensome. One of the main reasons why young people are avoiding marriage
Yep, especially burdensome for the WOMEN. No wonder more women are refusing to have children or even marry.
Also, the preference of SONS have come back to bite them (same with India) if they wanted a society to grow. What did they expect in a society of majority males? They are neither the carriers, creators nor *sustainers* of life. They forgot that they could not exist without the female, the default. Keep killing more women and girls around the world and the problem will increase 100-fold.
yeah, one guy has to carry whole wifes family, like a mule,f that
Young people are SMART!
Nah, many families are living as nuclear families, as many have small apartments that cannot accommodate the older folks. A large number of young married professionals reside in another large city where neither grew up because of jobs e.g. Shenzhen. They hardly see their extended families except when they travel back during holidays. Besides it isn't so bad if the grandparents are living near working couples because many Chinese grandparents unlike Westerners are very dedicated and hands-on in looking after their grandchildren full-time.
Bringing up children with western education and values and expecting anything other than western results is a fallacy, no?
It is funny that just a few years after announcing the two child policy the Chinese government announced the three child policy. Why not just scrap the policy altogether? If a few families decide to have eight or ten kids that will make up for many others with none.
Because that would give up a bit of control over their lives
It wouldn't change anything regardless, so it doesn't really matter.
No Dave, look at the population of Canada, Germany, Japan, and South Korea. You see the that their population has an inverted pyramid. But one you should really look at is Russia and China. These are dictatorships with a dying population and they want take you with them before they collapse that the real story.
It's not called "one child policy ", or "two child policy " in Chinese , it's called planned child policy.
They never admit that one child policy is wrong, because "it's all part of a bigger plan". But if they abandon the planning altogether, then they are essentially saying that planning was wrong, we should not plan, and they we were wrong. But dictators can never be wrong.
The nature of the CCP is to control all aspects of the population. They even define human rights not as part of individual liberty but as State power because the idea is: the stronger the government the better they can manage the population which is supposed to be some kind of benefit to the citizens.
I'm a retired international attorney living in Japan. I previously lived in China and Taiwan and speak Chinese fairly fluently. For years I advised clients not to put all production in China. Most Japanese companies didn't. If they could keep some production in Japan they did. The rule was to diversify production. Amazingly, the companies that didn't follow this rule were Americans and Europeans. Only now are SOME beginning to diversify. 🙄
Japan is a bad example, they are in rapid decline, 20 years ago all my home electronic appliances are Japanese brands, Sony, Sharp, Panasonic..... I don't have any today, NONE, I still drive a Toyota, but that's about it, and I'm considering to switch to Tesla soon. So Japan's model is done, they can't compete.
@@user-cr6yp7vx9r Wrong. Japan also makes the things in the other stuff. 1/3 of an I-phone is Japanese made with the chips and the screens. Panasonic makes the batteries in that Tesla you want. They design and make the hard stuff, their factories for basic no skill snap together assembly are though out SE Asian.
@@davidhill850 Actually Tesla has their own factory in US to manufacture batteries, they do buy batteries from Japan for some of their models, but they also purchase batteries from China and S. Korea, so as you can see, Japan used to be a dominate supplier for many products, now they have to compete with many other players, and I don't see they have an edge. Japan is no longer a success story, even they know it.
Clearly the Americans and Europeans are smarter than the Japanese. By doubling down on China, US and EU companies have access to the largest middle class market, which is in China. It's really stupid to manufacture elsewhere other than China. As a result Japanese companies lose out to US and EU companies.
@@user-cr6yp7vx9r yes because china & s. korea produce the same quality products but much cheaper price than Japan.
Doesn’t matter because India still has a lot of people. As the economy develops in a country population will decline. That’s a normal trend so it’s really no big deal.
China is the first major country in the world to become old before getting rich.
@THE ZOLDICS it will grow till 2050 then will decrease
It is quite a bit deal - the fact that nobody talks about enough is the _rate_ of decline. Losing half your population in 500 years is a one thing, it'd be a drag, but society, infrastructure and economies would adapt without any individual being significantly impacted or society getting too old. Losing half your population in _50_ years, which is closer to the situation countries like Japan, Latvia and China are in, means massive strain on keeping everything working.
There is a massive practical difference between 1.7 children per woman (e.g. the US and some Western European countries) and a 0.8 children per woman (South Korea). One slows economic growth, the other might lead to major societal collapse - we don't really have a precedent for it. South Korea and Japan aren't even yet in the steepest phase of projected decline.
@THE ZOLDICS no it will grow until 2050 from where it will decrease, but the difference is between China and India is definitely the speed. In China, people are already used to that one-child policy, that's so deeply rooted in their minds, government cannot change that so easily. In India we won't see major problems according the projections at least until 2100. The Indians have a much bigger time slot to get rich than the Chinese. All western countries first got rich, and only after they turned rich they had to face declining birth rates. Furthermore, developed countries have not a big problem with immigration because they attractive to foreigners which is in no way the case for most of the people regarding China. Language system is much more complicated and culture is more narrow-minded as well. India on the other hand could "import" English speaking people especially Africa without a long adaption process because both sides speak English already. To conclude, India for sure advantaged in long term
India didn't implement 1 child policy - besides there are many countries with similar GDP per capita as China that don't have falling population crisis.
So the population crisis in China isn't normal.
the problem with people is that they are always complaining. they seems to never get enough of what they have.
Things can’t keep going the same way indefinitely. Too many people, things are too expensive. This was always going to happen.
Coward
Good news for world, bad for big companies.
Too less people
World is overpopulated!!! But of white people only, according to medias... If you're black or arab, please do as many children as possible.
OVERPOPULATION IS A SCAM
@@fabricliver Black, Arabs and Indians should be the first to slow down.
There is literally no space in India, can speak from personal experience.
And Fertility rate is India has a high contrast by religion. Population of people from 4 religions is in decline rapidly, with TFR of just 1.5 and in rapid rise in Islamic population with TFR of ~ 3.
So it's a complex issue worldwide.
If I have to take 20 year debt, work 80 hours per week with an advance degree, only make peanut, and no freedom of any kind. I won’t make any kids either
That’s exactly what’s going to happen to India
@@the1stmetalhead Indians have a lot of freedom tho
@@thes7754 true so there’s a chance this strategy of growing population and economy might not work out for them. Since people have freedom they have the right to protest and even attack and throw over the government and it’s regulations. Whereas that isn’t the case with China. It’s a good strategy for a dictatorship but not democracy.
@@the1stmetalhead at least you can protest and have access to the real internet
@@kevinw4267 Indian goverment would cut off the Internet sometimes
Pieces like this need to talk more about the _rate_ of decline, not just whether it's shrinking or not. A country with a gently declining population (say, 1.7 children per woman, and projected to half in 500 years), will face some strain, but it will be fine - aging won't be too bad, infrastructure can adapt...etc. Might even be for the best economically, if productivity increases can be maintained.
By contrast, a country with a _rapidly_ declining population (which is most of East Asia as well as Eastern and Southern Europe) could face their populations halving in less than a century. It is very difficult to adapt to that - you get problems in terms of social and health care, pensions and social stability that wouldn't necessarily arise otherwise and would be hard to adapt to even with technology.
The scary thing is that we have no precedent for it. The only other time I can think of a country losing that many people that quickly are during plagues and wars, and they aren't analogous situations. We also don't know when or if it will end - if birth-rates don't somehow pick up eventually, you just run out of people. South Korea and Japan are experiencing this first - but their rates of decline aren't at their steepest projected yet.
by 2100 China's population would be 300-500 million based on Fuxian Yi's prediction. He is a obstetrics and gynecology researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest, which criticised China birth policies and was banned in mainland China since 2013
@@maxq4253 ah yes china will lose more than a billion people in just 77 years very realistic
Both South Korea and Japan tries to make policies to encourage birthrates , but they are "we tried nothing and I'm all out of ideas" at best. Allocation of funds is incredibly inflexible in modern government that any large scale changes will have some politicians will make huge stinker wrenches within the government.
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Agreed. Maybe the population growth will flatline well below replacement levels, but it is still a concern because the number of deaths could surpass the number of births, particularly in the case of natural disasters, plagues, and other similar situations.
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3:53: "...Old people aren't as productive as young people.." immediately cuts to the old guy "being productive" ✂ 😅
😂
China: Our plan is to increase the population.
Hecklers: No! That will destroy our planet!
China: Our population is decreasing.
Hecklers: No! It’s bad for your economy!
Literally, no one in the west is disappointed at the prospect of less vermin
It’s bad for (y)our economy
China can't even feed their own people
AI and automation are going to be taking up most of these jobs. Anyway,y the next 20 years, China is leading the way, they have seaports that are most fully digital now
@@themiddlelayer it'll be the same story for India soon
This probably happened a decade ago but they are acknowledging just now cause is not possible to hide it anymore
Can't trust Chinese numbers 😕
The challenge with India is it's infrastructure and the nature of it's bureaucratic government which has stifled it's progress. Don't see that changing regardless of its population. If you have conducted business or have travelled to both China and India the contrast between the development of the 2 countries is stark and obvious. From the progression of it's respective economies and infrastructures.
That's all changing ... the country came from $0.5 Trillion to $3.5 Trillion and this is not possible without change. Also, services are a lot more sustainable as expertise is baked in and this helps higher value added services. Last but not the least, investors don't have to worry about their investments collapsing overnight. One wrong move or you don't kiss ass in China and your investment is finished. What about all these risks? covid mismangement/huge lockdowns, govt strong arming (where is Jack Ma?) ... companies can't get out overnight but they will soon.
Japanese electronics and cars were considered junk in the 60s and 70s.
@@truthalonetriumphs6572 Typical comparing apple with orange, Taiwanese style.
@@truthalonetriumphs6572 "Japanese electronics and cars were considered junk in the 60s and 70s."
That was just a perception!
Products from Japan after WW2 were top-quality products. Starting from the mid-1950s, the rise of Japanese automobile companies was meteoric. Such growth doesn't happen due to junk quality.
@@jarjarbinks3193 Mid- 1950s?? Here's the Japanese growth graph: 1970 - $212 billion, 1980 - $1.1 trillion, 1990 - $3.1 trillion, 1995 - $5.5 trillion. People are talking the way it suits them. They believe what is convenient. 50s and 60s was all junk quality. Growth only started in the 70s and 80s.
Let’s all be honest here, the only reason why people worry about shrinking population, no matter in which country is 1. no more cheap labor and/or consumers and 2. less tax revenues which is needed to pay for ponzi schemes such as pensions.
Of course the modern economy relies on that expectation of growth in population to operate. However, the more educated the population gets, the fewer children they tend to have. It’s all for a reason. I’m not advocating for idiocracy here so to speak, but as someone born and raised in a third world country who barely escaped the faith of becoming a cheap replaceable factory worker as I was supposed to the day I was born in an impoverished household, there’s no f-ing way in hell I’d participate in that system. If I don’t “make it”, the misery ends with me and not my descendants.
However, I do understand why the upper class people are concerned with the population decline. At the end of the day, no matter under which system, 99% of us are modern-day slaves one way or another.
Slaves would be too extreme but under the orders of the 1% for sure
@@bloodwargaming3662 This might sound controversy but the defition of what is "slavery" has always been changing. The standard of living of what we call "peasantry" in medieval time aligns with what we defines as "slavery" nowadays, and some goes for blue collar factory workers prior to the 20th century. If we don't end up in idiocracy (that soon), our definition for "lower middle class" and below nowadays will become the new definition of slavery in the next century or so. We won't live that long to see if I'm correct but I strongly believe it'll be the case.
The medival, industrial revolution and of course us modern "slaves" live much better lives than the slaves, let's say in ancien Egypt or Roman Empire, but some goes for the 1% rulers who live much much better lives than the wealthiest Pharaohs. In most cases, the bar goes up for everyone, but doesn't change the fact that we're still slaves.
And of course we don't have that kind of "castle" system in most parts of the world, but no matter what happens, someone like me will never be treated the same as someone with royal bloodline, or from an old money / bourgeoisie (unless, just like how the bourgeoisie took over and became highly respectable a few centuries ago, I could accumulate enough wealth and power to change the way the game is played, which I can only hope for lol)
The cheap labor will transfer to Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
Every country is declining population, but some are worse than others. The Earth is getting shittier for quality of life.
Literally nowadays the news only say whatever happens in the world, means prices will rise 100%
India would have a crazy struggle finding jobs and resources for the huge population. Like now most of them would trying to move abroad if they are educated.
The problem lies in the modern institutions that want families to have the functions of both producing babies and participating in the workforce -- this means double jobs for each individual, especially women. Families who spend more time at home raising kids should be compensated as much as they participate in the workforce.
While those in charge of the national policy are worried about the declining population, as a millennial, I am optimistic. A declining population will lead to better treatment of young workers and a better work environment for them (currently, 9 to 9 for six days a week, overwork with low pay is common), as they become scarce and valuable.
Lies again? Smart Bundesliga Chinese Food
This should be a top comment
Not for big foreign brand corporate businesses who want to exploit the poor working masses around the world. The cheaper the labour, the lower the cost price hence the more profits they'll continue to have. They keep putting out these narratives to scare and divert manufacturing from China to India. Just looking for another place to exploit and spit them out when they are done.
China: lets pass the one child policy to reduce the population
Population: *reduces*
China: *surprised pikachu face*
I still remember Western countries berate China for overpopulation.
Now China has complied with western demands.
West now berates China for its lowering population.
lmao. phew
Not really surprise pikachu face. A lot of the old foggies that believe in the 1 child policy are dead and China's globalization strength and dependen ies did not take off really high until mid 90s. Before, the actual concern of famine caused by low food production can occur. It is easy to forget in U.S. where food can be acquired easily and food insecuries are caused by lack of funds rather than actual food production. Most gov policies around the world tend to be more reactive with incremental changes. Outright reversal of existing policy is more of minority than the norm.
As stated in the video, there are other factors that is causing lower population (already happening in U.S. and Japan). People are not going to have incentive to have 2+ babies per couple if they cannot even afford to put a roof over their heads.
Singapore made the biggest mistake of allowing only 2 kids per family, for which Lee Kuan Yew regretted so much a few years before he passed away.
And also China made the same for China's 1 child policy, for which Deng Xiaoping must be regretting so much now in his grave!
Singapore is a great and thriving country though.
Many ppl don't know Deng Xiaoping was just a Singapore policies copycat, and even less ppl know western policy advisors convinced Lee Kuan Yew of population control, he was too naive to realize they were just trying to stop "the yellow horde".
@prthmvrma Yes for now. However, the TFR has dropped to its lowest ever with 1.05 baby per couple. The effect will only be felt in few years time, not now.
@@adit1682 damn, I was thinking of moving to that country after my masters. Since I visited last year and had lots of fun.
800k out of 1.4 billion is a joke. Report on something substantive lol. These people probably just moved.
At least with agricultural mechanisation, food shouldn't be a significant issue, housing prices will fall as well. The main issue will be the reduction in tax revenue. Infrastructure maintenance will fall even further to the wayside and the rising elderly class will strain the economy. Though pretty much every country with population issues can solve it through immigration. Australia has been doing it since the 70s or so, since the native birthrate is lower than 2.1 children per woman. Asian countries are largely culturally and ethnically homogenous (with exceptions) and it might be hard for people to accept immigration as a solution.
Not Asia but East Asia*
Do you seriously think the government losing tax revenue is a concern for them? They'll just borrow more or print more money. The people will foot the bill regardless through lowering their value and taxing their savings (inflation)
Remember the terrible tax problem we've had ever worse every decade prior? Remember how when the USA was only 140 million it had a devastating tax-revenue problem? NO YOU DON'T because tax revenue just carries on per-population, per-capita as usual. Think about what you've said. You've said "It could be a problem to have the tax revenue for 200 million when there is only 180 million" as if that is a problem?
Yes, infrastructure would shrink accordingly. You decided it would be maintained for people who don't exist anymore. weird.
The biggest issue is simply going to be the age of things, and shrinking communities. Have you ever passed through a town where half the homes are abandoned, supermarkets closed, nature slowly taking over the landscape? That's going to be present in a lot more areas. I grew up in a state where you could find old stone walls and foundations randomly in the woods after the wool industry shipped to Australia/New Zealand before being mostly displaced by synthetic materials. You're going to see a lot of really old homes on the market in the US in the next few decades and not many new ones.
@@EmptyZoo393 I've put a little thought into this and wondered if some innovative people will develop a modern big-machines efficient kind of 21st century Scavenging.
My imagined example might be China in 20 years where a city has hundreds of dead empty 30 story high-rises. demolishing them is easy but will someone invent a mega-machine that can move and 'eat' that rubble, separating out the metals while grinding out and even processing concrete.. New improved tech that can separate copper from tin from steel and more efficient smelting.
I don't really know a whole lot about this industry overall but I wonder if we'll have the next 'elon musk' of demolition, 'urban mining' and high-tech scavenging where it's big-business profitable to make it worthwhile to vanish these remnants.
Land reclamation is way way better these days. There is no special profit in that but these days they can take a former drill site or mining operation and 2 years later you could be hiking, walk across the ex-industrial site and barely realize it was anything but natural. 10 years later there is no sign mankind was ever there.
When I lived in China in the 2000s people always asked how many kids do you have and gush if the answer was more than one. But no baby boom when the restrictions lifted. The price of living better.
Damn grandpas doing those balance beams put me to shame
If I was a factory worker in China, I would be glad that cheap labour in China might end. A smaller working population might mean higher wages and better working conditions. The GDP per capita in China is still so small that the economy has a lot of room to grow. China has built all those impressive universities in the last two decades and those will produce a high number of highly educated people. Infrastructure in China is much better than in most rich countries like the US.
BTW nothing offensive just want to inform president of China has all of his children studying in US.
Those “impressive” infrastructure needs people and money to maintain. Without people and money to maintain, they will rot. The high speed rails going to western China are losing money everyday. There are not enough passengers. And high speed rails can’t carry heavy freight to compensate for low passenger revenue. So, in a few years, the trains will rot, and $billions down the drain. The occupancy of skyscrapers in secondary cities is so low with no chance of recovery. Those skyscrapers will become just concrete skeletons soon. Those new gigantic airport terminals, shall I go on???
@@TurboChargedChristmas So do presidents and powerful people from many countries around the world. The US still has the top universities in the world. So what's wrong with presidents of China sending their kids to study in the US? Why do people keep using that as something embarrassing to mock China? It's not like China declared they had the best universities in the world lol
@@The_Art_of_AI_888 huh? I did not say that in negative way though. I can say it whenever, whatever I want my way, what the heck. Cant you just accept the reality? LOL! Did I make you angry? If yes and IDC, it’s still cool to mention it. There you go, greetings from Philippines.
@@TurboChargedChristmas lol now you are the one whos being triggered and can't accept the reality. I said the US has the best universities in the world, no? My comment was just pointing out how "people" (like you) keep mentioning it and making it as if China sending kids to the US to study is something very embarrassing and should be mocked. lol
People are not willing to have more children. The financial pressure is high nowadays
they've only been part of the global economy for two decades and everyone was making money before that
Yes, In Xi dreams, in reality China will be first country in the history that have fell from being a large economy to a small poor one in the less than a decade, it's obvious with China malicious approach to the world and it's resistance to change and reform, it's just matter of years that all advanced economies break their economical ties with them, which means close to $2 trillion export loss for China, and China's economical collapse.
China's cheap labour edge has long gone far before the population problem manifested. You can find far cheaper labour in south-east Asia or India.
China's production capability comes from its full production chain. You can get most of the raw material and middel parts in china saving the cost and time of importing.
No one wants a country that is unpredictable, irrational as China was with Covid, its own tech sector (where is Jack Ma?). Companies can't leave overnight, but they will leave. Same for economic friends/investors - Taiwan, Hong Kong, S Korea, Japan. They are setting up new supply chains. It will take 5 years for China to see impact.
Also, there are many types of manufacturing and production chains. India just needs to eat away 20 or 30% of the less complicated chairs. Remember, US didn't imagine Japan could destroy is auto industry in 15 years.
@@truthalonetriumphs6572 The US issues trade war out of nowhere. India loves to punish foriegn companies to protect their own. Compairing to reasonable reaction to a globle pandemic, I don't know what is Not unpredicable.
@@truthalonetriumphs6572 Of course other counties can set up new produciton chains. I'm just saying there's benefits manufactorying in one country. And countries around China can benefit from the already set up production chain too.
Because china doesn't rely on cheap labours, China doesn't necessary view Vietnam or India as rival but bussiness partners. That's all i am saying. Zero-sum mindset is not good for bussiness.
@@truthalonetriumphs6572 China would love to see India rise. More bussiness partners more prosperty. But the hositlity of India hinders its own growth. Vietnam seems to have more potential for now.
It was not Japan who desroyed US automotive industry, it was the US itself.
It was never about humanity. Just the fear of lack of livestock for production and tax payments. What's the point of serving a society like this.
Less people, higher wages, more employee leverage. Good for the people then.
Answer: Over population to have a cheap labour force to satisfy the needs of the global stock markets....?
“Babies don’t pay taxes” 🤦♂️ some people actually cannot see past their noses
We should force babies to pay taxes
Nope he is right, having many babies at once will cause a shock to the system and so do you spend the scarce available funds on babies that will pay off in the future or do you spend the funds now on increasing the productivity of the current ageing population through medicare etc etc I am an economist an in economics there are no solutions just trade offs,
🤣
@@dextercube1822 Pfft, we should force babies to work.
Just kidnap babies from other countries
an economic system that requires constant growth to prevent collapse is called a ponzi scheme
Life is very stressful nowadays
Only because of the rich.
I know Japan also has negative population growth the past year, I’m sure there are other countries. Wondering what are being done and what worked?
The fact that China's population is shrinking is not the worst thing in the world. Considering that it was massively-overpopulated, it's probably a good thing for the planet that the situation is now reversing and the population is declining. People are just using this change to create over-dramatic headlines.
lol population decline means lack of economic growth, lack of growth means a lack of investment in clean technology. This is very very bad for the planet.
This report has declared people in China to be essentially manufacturing equipment that could soon be in short supply. Could we instead talk about the people they are?
I hope this continues globally. Korean women are leading the charge. Life shouldn't be about work and consumerism to make capitalists richer with cheap labor.
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lol the price of stuff will go up? It already is!
You have no idea.
*Peter Zeihan was addressing this 5 years ago! Wild!*
At 3:55, "the aging population is not as productive." Cue two old ass men doing swings I can't even do >.
This is a good sign. This world is overly populated as it is already.
I think we are not taking this seriously as people
Indeed.
If, for instance, this channel were, this video would mention the future of work, which can and will be done without human labor, and welfare systems, which can function with less people paying into by adjusting the source taxes (e.g. taxing the rich)
I think this video explains how population decline can be managed
Matt Bruenig
Do Big Welfare States Make Countries Go Broke?
czcams.com/video/TjPrSEe7qkQ/video.html
SHRINKING??? Give me some of that thing you smoking!!!
Yeah, but the issue is the population is still way too big. If they want to raise their GDP per capita, they need to maintain economic growth independent of population (automation and AI) while at the same time reduce the population.
India is focusing on infrastructure logistics and making attractive destination for investors. If this continue, I am sure in next 10 years you will see india as manufacturing capital
Yes. India is just 15 years behind China (see GDP numbers for 2008 and now). China only has to stumble a little and the gap will narrow to 10 years.
Don't forget we also found a huge JackPot in Jammu and Kashmir with Lithium. And future is going for Electricity as prime energy source.
India is making Gobar
Apple is shifting from China to Bangalore soon.
@@anuragchakraborty8766 gobar is good for your helth man. Eat food naturally grown by using gobar.
This is the second story in as many days that seems concerned with a population reduction. I say great!!! We have a planet with finite resources and a species that has an insatiable appetite for consumption. We need fewer people on this globe and anything that happens to drop.the overall population is great, although there will be short term econmic and employ disruptions, the long term will be better.
less of china is good for the world
jesus your really uninformed on this topic is stunning please read more into it I thought the same thing but there many books and studies which show thats not the case
@@julienwoodstock5546 so what to do else? procreate to 100 billion ?
@@megalordik its not one or the other were not overpopulated which by the way will never happen even the UN keeps changing its estimation we wont even hit 9 billion 2nd all im saying is please read up on the economic consequences of what happens when there more old people then young people and we have a upside down demographic pyramid im not saying the world will end however one of the major consequences is retirement funds will run out because there not enough young people paying into not to mention less economic growth as well as more health care spending which will cost more money which we dont have as much in taxe revenue BECAUSE THERES NOT ENOUGH people in the work force to contribute taxes wise japen is a perfect example of this
Problem is there will be more elderly than working age population. Its bad always bad
the reason is simple: kids used to be like a automatic Uber, in their teens they begin to make some money, now they are like benz, never make money and always consum a lot of money.
As countries industrialize and modernize, population growth slows and the median age of the population increases. That is economics. Every country faces that.
The explanation of how they have only male heirs is way more frightening than a lot of westerners nowadays would dare to imagine…
Not really abortion is an option, and those that can't afford that just do the abortion after birth...if you know what I mean.
So they have abortions. How is that any different than the west?
@@MrNote-lz7lh yeah, you really have no idea mate
The people that were cofident in the one child policy are saying population equates exonomic power. I remember when the economists would fabricate zhe idea of the tricle down economics and the maturation of the market. I don't believe one prediction they said.
Trickle down economics was BS pushed by rich politicians to build their own wealth.
Doesn't mean anything.
How did this wormhole bring me to this from Bezz Believe trucks gone wild live premiere?
Its ok, we have lots of young and skilled workers in the Philippines
"any bad news on your enemy is good news". I get the general sentiment of youtube.
we don't usually hear how North Korea sucks, even it has got nukes. Something is dfferent about China, no matter how many videos predicting doom and bust for China, we just need more of it.
I think it's also just the fact that North Korea doesn't affect the global economy in comparison to a fraction of China. From economic, to population, to manufacturing of western goods. North Korea has none of that and no say in the world stage, they just have nukes to flail around for when they need more money.
You are frome china
China has an entire arm of their government, just to bad mouth the US on social media. It employs thousands. Many are actually prisoners in China, and this is their hard labor.
It's because we (mostly Americans) are kinda insecure. North Korea is and has always been a novelty, an interesting news story. China is a real world competitor. They make the most stuff, import the most oil and food, and have the most men. There's a general anxiety in the West the China is going to become more powerful than us, so we seek out reporting that alleviates this anxiety. That's not to say that China is actually likely to surpass America, but it's objectively closer than any competitor we've had in a century.
well most of it is sensationalized (especially from CZcamsrs)
Cheaper labour is all that I heard in this video, why not reduce the pocket size of MNCs, and pay the labour a bit more
Who noticed the Tesla before clicking ?
If chains can transition from being a manufacturing hub to a service based economy they might just be fine.
Thats not going to happen 🤣
@@drunkdriver
Exactly. It’s just an empty narrative. There’s not much meaningful in Communist China’s capability, culture , and government participation that suggests this change can happen in any meaningful and quick way.
The great Chairman has already kicked off his egotistic plan to tell the Great Leap Forward & the Cultural Revolution: “ Hold My Beer “
They'd still hurt. Less people means less jobs and money and everything else.
Manufacturing is moving out of China
Once the West stopped the steal of secrets they will do nothing but assume their real place
China's manufacturing advantage is not based solely on cheap labour. China is extremely efficient in supply chain and logistical management. Overseas enterprises appreciate this very much.
but that not true. China value add is actually quite low. Lower than for example mexico, sinapore, germany, japan
@@deonrobinson4293 Stated without evidence.
China is the factory of the world for good reason. Tens of thousands of foreign businesses operate there for good reason.
Mexico? LOL! And Singapore's manufacturing is a drop in a bucket.
@@s._3560 Mexico has one the highest value add and world class engineer. Way ahead of china by value.
Good for them, the young generation are getting smarter. The only thing the elites are concerned about is that they won’t have enough cheap labour to help them expand their ridiculously unnecessary profits. It’s time for quality instead of quantity
China's population is much lower, many they count reside in foreign countries. Also, it always overstates numbers. It is likely that India currently has the highest population and may have been so a couple years ago.
@@shockcat5988 Chinese people have farms that chinese people farm, in Africa.
This is true. China's real population is around 800 million; it shrunk due to Covid hitting the aging population.
India did officially surpass China this year
And elsewhere too.
That's good for humanity.
only people who hate humanity would say something like this. we're a fragile creature that can easily be wiped off the planet from a virus or natural disaster...kinda need as many people as possible for the survival of the human race. such a naive dense world view some of you have lul again u just hate people, the less u have to deal with is okay for you, your selfish and narcissist ways do not help humanity as a whole.
I am from China, let me tell you the real issue, the real issue is that many young people here dont even want to get married, in China no married=no child, so some provinces already introduced a new policy that legalize the child birth for those couple without getting married to encourage giving birth , but this is unlikely happend considering Chinese traditional culture, which discriminate such behavior.
there are 2 major reasons for the population decline , firstly with economy growth for decades , Chinese people are far more richer than their parents. Yong couples focus more on their career or want to enjoy more time of 2 people , so they postpone the age of having baby a lot. that is the same situation in other developed countries. Secondly , in the last few years , the high cost of education and house has stopped the willing of many couples to have the 2nd child , however with house price decline and prohibition of extra training courses out of school , this situation has changed a lot. From my observation of friend and people around. most people are willing to have the 2nd children , just a matter of time.
finally , will it be a big shock to global supply chain? i don't think so , because the advantage of made in china products has been shifting from cheap labor to mass production and complete supporting facilities such as logistics , financial service etc. the industrial which is sensitive to labor cost will shift to India , Vietnam and even Africa . that has been happening since a few years ago but not all of them will shift out completely because of the huge domestic market , the population of middle class is the largest in the World.
Add to that that during the one child policy they killed off a good portion of the female population as infants, so no matter the incentives there just aren't enough women to maintain the population
I live in China. I observe that people at my age born in 1990’s around me are quite reluctant to have even only one baby. I genuinely do not agree it is just a matter of time.
I find it funny how the workshop ofthe world. Is similar to hiring a new employee willing to work the graveyard shift and eventually move up to management
You would think China would make a cheap tablet for a universal teaching through zoom. So all kids from rural places can learn.
If you knew anything about China, no, no you wouldn’t
Rural area is a diverse and complex term in China. What you said is already partially true and is developing.
Doesn’t replace people making and buying things at an increasing rate as population declines
How can you do that? Teaching children involves more than just making them sit through lectures. This is not a college degree. Children will get distracted and stop watching the tablet. They'll get confused and stop following the lesson. You need qualified teachers in the classroom to help them stay on task and ensure that they're absorbing the information. You need to do activities and experiments to keep them engaged. Those things can't be done through any tablet.
There does seem to be a persistent and widespread believe that children only learn in a physical room(a school) with a teacher at the front of that room, even though for decades now people have learned through screens.
As a Indian I can say one thing about your predictions
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~(Eating spicy foods)
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U guys are expecting much from us bro.
LoL
You don't have that culture for working in factories? Probably you not stupid, you trying to full and scam people. But that's about it.
Automation is taking over manufacturing so less ppl will be involved in manufacturing in the future. So cost of goods will likely not increase much but manufacturing will become more ubiquitous which is a good thing. Global markets wont be overly dependent on Chinese labour.
Do you really think automation is not gonna increase price of goods?
Negative outlook + negative approach = negative results
One child policy on its own would have caused this slowly, but the if we can only have one it must be a son did the real damage. You see the same happening in for instance India now that ultrasound makes knowing gender before birth so easy, it leads to many abortions of girl babies and parents of sons crying crocodile tears over not finding a bride for their sons.
Means nothing if manufacturer's move to a better source of labor that isn't hostile towards everyone.
I wanted to say. No more cheap child labor. Ffs 😢
The US is also hostile to everyone too.
I honestly think the US business should invest more into making Mexico as the next big manufacturing hub, or at least one of the top 5. Probably better to have multiple large hubs then put all your eggs in one basket
@@sirpieman300 but mexico got crime problem, red tape, mafia can kidnapped your ceo for ransom
@dwarfhunter Mexico from my understanding is growing a lot. It probably had its own strengths and weaknesses for specific industries and it makes more sense to invent the weaker aspects elsewhere. Mexico will probably and hopefully become something great. But tbh not really sure about everything they do.
On one hand, it’s wrong to pay people pennies to work in factories, on the other hand, I don’t want to pay $1000 for a pair of sneakers 😂😂😂
"Thats not an expectation at all" 😂😂😂 7:05 lady you r gonna be extremely surprised.
Yes. India is just 15 years behind China (see GDP numbers for 2008 and now). China only has to stumble a little and the gap will narrow to 10 years.
By the time 2100, world population would have significantly declined. There's no escaping this.
China's population will be cut by 50% before 2040. Old will die and there is not enough growth to replace them.
Nahh.. African nations will be fine
Billions of Indians waiting in the corner
I'll come back here in 77 years. See you then.
@@the1stmetalhead dude indian population is near replacement level. You mean africa right?
One party system may not be bad. Take life expectancy of both China and US as example. In 1950 China life expectancy is about 38 vs US 68. After 71 years, in 2021 China life expectancy is 78.2 vs US 76.1( latest figure by CDC , US life expectancy dropped by 3 in 2020-2021 period from 79.1 originally). China expectancy increase by 40 years while US increase by 8 years only. China life expectancy increase 5 time faster than US.
Also Look at health care by comparing MMA rate( maternal mortality rate): in 1950 China maternal mortality is 1500 women death per 100,000 birth vs US 100 women death per 100,000 births. In 2021, China MMA is 16.1 vs US 23.8 per 100,000 (the lower the number , the better health care service level) .
Infant mortality rate: in 1950 China infant mortality is 195 death per 1000 birth vs US 26.8 death per 1000 births. In 2021, China infant mortality rate drop to 5 per 1000 vs US 5.4 per 1000 birth.
In fact among top 10 population countries, China’s life expectancy is longest 78.2 years old vs US 76.1 and India 70, Indonesia 71.7, Pakistan 67.3, Brazil 75.9, Nigeria 54.7, Bangladesh 72.6, Russia 73.1, Mexico 75.
And people in China retire at 55 years old on average to access pension. About 12 years earlier than US's 67 years requirement while some countries may not have pension at all. It means an American need work extra 40*52*12=25,000 hrs in his life than an average person in China. It also means an American only has 9 years to enjoy retirement while an average person in China has 22 years to enjoy retirement.
Also it is not means or asset tested when access pension in China. It means you get your pension monthly even you stay overseas, are a multi-millionaire or have another job after retirement.
Singapore is another example of one party system. Its gdp is highest among Asia.
Singapore isn’t a one party system…
USA is about the worst developed country on many metrics, especially health.
@@Aaron-ir4heSingapore PAP always was in power. So Singapore is effectively one part system. China also has 8 minor parties but they never are in power as well. Both are one party system in fact.
@@Aaron-ir4henot only health, China also beat US in public transportation, safety etc. See Why American living in China feel China has better public transportation than US. czcams.com/video/VPLSDLtbHWM/video.html
Japan is literally a one party system as well.
In the 1930s, most. small electronics and household items sold in the US were “Made in Nippon/Japan,” then quite a bit in Mexico, then mainly in China…..the factories will always go to the cheapest labor, relatively stable, friendly (enough) country, and have always moved around…there is no reason it would be “different this time” for China.
I thought Globalization mainly started after WW2 but thank you for bringing up this information
Japan wasn't cheap labor they were skilled labor at low cost.
Yeah yeah because of big reasons of this and that. For us most likely because young one already develop secret habits that dont want to share it or let other know about even with their partners.
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Just run a search on her name, and you would see all you need.
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Kinda scary statistic considering there are about 80 million people in China over 70 years old and the average life expectancy is 78 years.
India should be more worried about their populatiom maintenance their agv expectancy is only 65 🤣
"Shrinking"? 😄 (am not sure is that an under or overstatement...😅)
I Never wanted children and I’m sometimes labeled a bad person. Now you tell me children are there for cheap labor? Who’s the bad person now?
Currently India is solving all its internal problems
We have
Strong Stable Government
Fast Infrastructure development - New Ports, Highways, Waterways, Rail Network and Airports
Digitisation in all sector - best in the world
Young educated population - getting away from orthodox Socialist mind set
Moving to Renewable Energy - Making energy cost very less in coming years
Very resourceful - Vast land area, water available, minerals available, etc
So India will grow faster than predicted by IMF or World bank
"Digitisation in all sector - best in the world" . Best? LOL no please. That's some echo chamber propaganda chief.
People are saying declining birth rates are good. But I think it shows people are so insecure and pessimistic that they don't decide not to have children. I don't think a growing birth rate is sustainable. But can we at least solve the issues in the various countries that hold people back from having children? It will probably benefit the birth rate along with other aspects of people's lives.
Nobody sane every thought that China with less people would be a BAD thing...
For cheap labor, next targets would be India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Africa. The concern is about cheap labor, so the west can have affordable goods
Well that backfired well because of their one child policy in the past.
what REALLY did them was, they HATED female babiesm. they aborted MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of female babies, kept males. this is why pro-abortion communist lunatics in USA think short, never big
How did it backfire? China gdp is good and increasing.
@@AngelloDelNorte It will start to decrease because of the burden of the aging and decline population. The younger people will need to pay higher taxes in order to fund the pension of the large aging population.
@S H
How's that any different from Western countries? EU pays high, and in USA sons/daughters, they pay elderly center for someone else to take care of their parents?
But there not only country that population that is terminal decline. Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Russia as well.
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Mrs Claudia Walter's service is really good, I invested $22,000 and made a profit of $81,000 after a week. I still wonder how she gets her analysis
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United States👎 ＋𝟏𝟕𝟎𝟐𝟗𝟗𝟕𝟓𝟓𝟖𝟔👍
United States
+1702
the consumer won't feel it for long. they will simply move the factories to another place.
What it means is I will have to wait longer to get my electronics
I don't see this a bad thing. They already had too many people and India is even more overpopulated. Companies are moving out of China for a lot reasons, but lack of population growth is not one of them.
Rising cost is the reason
Lack of population IS one of the reasons. Not to mention right now the government is pushing for higher salaries for all workers, which means more expensive products. If foreign company stayed in China, the price for goods around the world would visibly be more expensive than it was. Let us admit it, WE ONLY WANT CHEAP LABOR SO EVERYTHING AROUND US IS CHEAPER!
Lack of population IS one of the reasons. Not to mention right now the government is pushing for higher salaries for all workers, which means more expensive products. If foreign company stayed in China, the price for goods around the world would visibly be more expensive than it was. Let us admit it, WE ONLY WANT CHEAP LABOR SO EVERYTHING AROUND US IS CHEAPER!
The economic model of an ever increasing population to care for retirement is not sustainable. Eventually the standard of living will have to decrease in first world nations or war is inevitable. I'm betting on a combination of both.
Yepp
As I appreciate a sort as that sort got ruined.
There I will utter terrible onto as it lies my feeling to quite zone
Stop saying "covid caused (insert issue here)", no. Authoritarian government policy caused your problems.
It's true that the population is important for a country's development, but in my view, the quality matters. That's why western countries have so many high-tech companies which are more profitable, undoubtedly. Hence, The decrease in China's population is not a big deal because they have popularized education. The education is quite important for a country as it means skilled workers and engineers. Have you heard the news that Iphone produced in India only has a less than 50 percent yield rate? That explains why manufacturing is thriving in China and can't go well in other countries.
Name a country with declining population and steadily growing economy.
Charlie Chan enters the chat....
@@brianjones7660 The world is changing.So, just break your stereotypes and get out of the information cocoons.
@@dengkezheng1655 how is the 3 Child policy going for you?
Collapsing population is your downfall as you Han are racists who can't allow non Chinese immigrants in any number.
@@brianjones7660 If you are really curious about that, I think you'd better find the answer by yourself rather than ask other people everything like an inquisitive 3-year-old kid.
So the buble bursted, maybe time to bring manufacture back home at last.
That definitely will be the great thing for humanity.
It is a gimme that labour cost in China will edge up over the coming years.
The Chinese government had been very successful in their economic development.
There are more and more good jobs, more educated population etc…
The low end assembly work will no longer be desired.
Manufacturing shoes, clothes etc will face tremendous cost pressure in the coming years.
Those jobs will migrate to low cost economies.
Chinas cost will move up to a mid income level.
Shoe manufacturing alr moved to vietnam