Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on the 2024 Bitcoin Halving
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- čas přidán 17. 05. 2024
- Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente explore how this Bitcoin halving might diverge from previous ones and what that means for investors.
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The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and decentralization.
Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.
Show highlights:
🔹How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving
🔹Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility
🔹Whether this cycle could be the "last cycle" or the "supercycle"
🔹Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle
🔹The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin
🔹How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will
🔹Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced
🔹Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern
🔹Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch
🔹Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH
🔹Arthur's rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps
🔹Arthur's and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle
Thank you to our sponsors!
➡️ Polkadot - polkadot.network/ecosystem/co...
Guest:
⭐️Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom.
⭐️Will Clemente, Co-founder of Reflexivity Research
_______________________________________________________
Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:41 Impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on BTC price pre-halving
04:54 Spot ETFs' effect on Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility
06:59 Potential unique impacts of the upcoming halving
11:20 Discussion on if this is the "last cycle" or "supercycle"
14:07 Arthur's prediction of a 90% Bitcoin drawdown
17:12 Indicators of nearing the cycle's peak
20:29 Effects of high inflation and interest rates on Bitcoin
22:54 Will's view on AI and productivity boom
24:40 Arthur on the irrelevance of U.S. presidential outcomes for Bitcoin
25:40 Impact of ending the bank term funding program on BTC
27:29 SEC lawsuits against Uniswap and Coinbase
29:32 Will on Coinbase's valuation
34:01 Future of Bitcoin L2s and security budget concerns
37:03 Arthur's bullish stance on Bitcoin Ordinals
37:28 Arthur and Will's unfamiliarity with Roger Ver’s new book
38:30 Potential impact of Runes Protocol launch on Bitcoin activity
41:32 Will's comparison of DOGE and ETH as commodities
44:12 Arthur's defense of Ethena against Terra/Luna comparisons
51:23 Altcoin performance predictions post-halving
58:06 Investing in AI
01:00:04 Arthur and Will's Bitcoin price projections for year-end and cycle-end
_______________________________________________________
#bitcoin #ethereum #crypto #cryptocurrencies
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I will be forever grateful to you, you have changed my entire life and I will continue to preach in your name for the whole world to hear that you saved me from a huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Nicole Brusher
I'm surprised you just mentioned Nicole Brusher here. I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
What impresses me most about Nicole Brusher is how she explains the basic concept of winning before letting you use her trading signals. This goes a long way in ensuring winning trades.
I am new to this, please how can I reach her?
TELEGRAMS
@Brusherfx
My question is, when BTC draws down , 80-90% is high,
where to we put the cash we’re pulling out of it?
You're spot on. Knowing where to invest can be daunting, especially if you're new to the game.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day invt decisions being guided by a invt-coach, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using a invt-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 1.5million
@@Plemmonsscott Wow, that's amazing! Would you mind sharing the name of your recommended advisor?
No wonder the demand for investment advisors has shot up since the pandemic.
I operate a wide-range of Investments with help of Eric Marc Luftig. His role as the managing director at BMO Capital Markets certainly speaks to his expertise and experience in the industry.
video out for 24 hrs. less than 12k views. retail not here yet
Spot on $$$
This is a small channel, you’d imagine you would take that into account.
I'm favoured, Getting my own Truck has always been my Dream for my business. I just acquired 2 recently, earning $32K weekly has been really helpful. I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support Charity Organizations. I really appreciate your videos
As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest, on which platform? If you know any please share.
I'd really like to get into crypto Investing. I have about $145k set aside, but I don't know anything about this market. Would you please provide the best approach to make money as well as a trustworthy resource for advice? Your help would be greatly appreciated.
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $7500. That really helps us a lot to pay up our bills.
Still regret that I sold my bitcoin early last year, even after my colleague insisted we shouldn't. Please Is Bitcoin still a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I still kept my money in the money market and with over $120k maturing soon, I plan investing well in it. Here for ideas
As a beginner investor, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Myself, I'm guided by Deborah Davis. A widely known crypto consultant
Wow, just watched an eye-opening analysis of Bitcoin's latest price twists. It's amazing to see the impact of funding rates, media hype, and big players' actions on the market. This crypto journey is full of surprises, and insights like these are invaluable. It really highlights the power of technical analysis in navigating these waters. For anyone on the fence, now's a thrilling time to dive in and potentially ride the wave to success. The market's complexities are surprising now, but also full of opportunities for the savvy investor...At the heart of this evolution is David Walter, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. His holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make him an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment....
he's mostly on Telegrams, using the user...
@dav_walter THAT IS HIS USER NAME.
A major distinction between winning and losing is using the right strategy and of course with signals like those of David, profit is assured.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience.
A better way is to get proper guide!!!! The most important thing is the technicality and David Walter keeps proven himself.
how are there only 7000 views this is alpha
Now 25k. It tells you were are still early. And serious retail has not arrived.
cos it does not have clickbait titles, good for us, alpha should remain limited to the people who want to find it
Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.❤
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Thank you Arthur!! Two old dudes fighting it out is the perfect description of the upcoming election. It’s a friggin circus
How low will fiat go?
Currently it is worth 1,567 satoshis.
Will it see 700 satoshis but end of year?
Arthur's octopus rockin wif hat 🐙
More than half of the podcast had nothing to do with bitcoin or the halving... Nice clickbait
This was great, thank you!
Thanks for the Polkadot tutorial👍🏻
Awesome show
Great discussion.
I like Arthurs Octopuswifhat in the background
Great conversation 😊😊
From my observation and historical market pattern, there might be a bit of turbulence in the market coming up, but here's the deal: Trying to guess what's going to happen next is less important than spreading your bets when trading and thinking long term. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Whitney Eston, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape....
She is WhitneyEston in TE L E G R AM...
great show
Awesome interview! In other news, I think you need a little more color in your room. It’s a contrast thing, I think you need some darker couches and that would do it. Again , I really enjoy this!!!
Pretty amazynG
As a bitcoin maxi that owns Eth, Sol and a couple of other coins, I am tired of the constant reference to shitcoins. Esp from Mr Hayes and Swan Bitcoin and Cory. Will is always respectful. If you want respect, don't be so disrespectful. You may think it's cool, it's just not. Alt coins please. Interestingly I had to agree to be respectful to post this comment!
The hat stays on! Haha Arthur
Great convo
"This time is a little different." 👍
41:54 Will says Doge coin is a commodity
Thanks Laura for this awesome content…been watching for years and learned so much! Love the deep dive interviews to educate people about crypto, been in this space for 6-7 yrs. 🎉
something about an ad for a blockchain on a supposed to be unbiased media outlet really rubs me wrong.
Even if Sol was as slow as Eth, I would still use Sol due to the cost of the transactions.
How simple can one be? If sol was as slow as eth the transaction fees would inherently be higher and more equal to eth .
How come icp is never in the talk
Great discussion and nice selection of complementary invitees
Forever Laura!
She's topped out my lads
Wait, let me guess, guaranteed to go up and to the right? No way!?
Sorry, I just thought about it aaand…I instantly regretted my comment 😂 your furniture is fine. Do you hommie! I work weekends nights so this is the start of my weekend and I am a little tipsy 🥂
Will has aged 5 years in 12months.
Crypto does this to you…
Will is a scam and a thief ! he got called out by zachXBTC ! such a little clown
@@taccntb4345 totally...
That happens when you try base
@@chaosreigns4390 You have a low iq, bro…?
27:49 WTF Will is drinking :D
We all know it’s going up over time despite volatility in between. So easy. We just zoom out.
“Binance smartchain for white people” 😂😂😂
oddly critical of bitcion runes
Hey Arthur. Reducing taxation does not equate to wasteful spending. The money belongs first to the people, not government.
I still remember the first time I ever heard of bitcoin and it was from when Binita Barnes was on Joe Rogan's podcast and I was SOOOOOOOOOO convinced and interested that I was so close to buying an entire coin after that episode.
The price was 13k Canadian at the time (If I remember correctly) but I only had 10k that I could afford to spend but stupid me didn't end up buying any bitcoin because I didn't have enough for a whole coin. That's a regret I'll never forget.
Luckily I eventually realized 99% of people invest with experts over time...
I'm a long term investor with Benita Barnes, I withdrew my profit of over £51,000 during the covid-19 pandemic
Bitcoin is on it way to breaking records.
How?
I'm a newbie to crypto investment. How can I reach this trader?
Please
She’s mostly on Telegrams, using the user-name below.
Benitabarnes 👈
Thank you for sharing this information here mate 😊
So good to listen to professionals rather than bubble heads who repeat the same bs they heard from each other (not mentioning names but one is Invest Answers, selling their Discord ripoffs)
what is based culture?
always feel weird remembering the very smart Target kid who helped me that day is now a bitcoin chain hawk chad
Wen is Pauly0x going to be on the show?
Is ‘Paxg’ a shidcoin?
Ladder out starting in oct , nov 2024 with 30% of portfilio , another 20% by 1/1/2025 and 10% each month until may 2025 and you cant lose . You may not guess the exact top but you wont get trapped in the 75% + drop in 2025. Thats my advice . 80% in top 20 cryptos and 20% in lower or mid caps and maybe if you choose put some early profits from the november withdrawals into promising low caps in ai, gaming , cpu gendering . Take half out as soon as 1x and only risk profits .
Papa bless
hat stays on
It depends on how high we through it! :P
Thank you for the content!!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and we will be set for life , made $24k from trading last month and so happy about it.
That's huge!! Been trying to trade on my own for a while now it isn't going well .few weeks ago I lost like $7000 in a particular trade . Can you please help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Well , I picked the challenge to put my finances in order . Then I invested in cryptocurrency stock through the assistant of my discretionary fund manager, Amenia Rose.
YES, That is exactly her name and also many people speaks highly about her . She is an expert and am just starting with her .
Such a genuine personality !!! She is really a good investments advisor . I was privileged to attend some of her seminar.
That's how I started my crypto investment.
Seeing people making much money on trading got me wondering what I'm doing wrongly .
Wow that's like my 2 years worth of salary
will seems so unserious. Seems like hes reading stuff off his screen lol
Laura, please stop putting ‘curious’ in EVERY question…
its chinese, shes been speaking chinese lately. 我好奇你們覺得如何
How can I make more profitable investment in crypto without incurring most losses?..
I've followed many traders over the years, but none have been as consistently accurate as Elizabeth Warren. She's truly in an inspiration to us all.
elizabeth Warren understanding of market volatility is impressive. She knows how to leverage it for profitable trades.
Don't take investment advice from a kid ...
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Celia dullpher
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Arthur said he will be dumping his bags once he hears the word super cycle!! 🤔 Hmm, if Bitcoin is such a great asset, why sell it for a weaker asset such as fiat? Help me make sense of this.
To buy back in, when low, with more money of course. We are all in this for moola 💰, more net, more gains. Ideal is to buy low sell high for best ROI….and then buy back in on next low. Of course easier said than done. And for the ones that don’t want to risk losing, they hold for long term. But someone like Arthur, he can probably pull it off better than most. Whether we have fiat or cbdc or gold or skittles as currency, whatever it is, we want more. Buy low sell high and repeat, that’s what makes that happen…..if you can pull it off.
I’d guess he sells 100% of any altcoin due to 95%+ sell offs and only a certain % of BTC & ETH. Probably a small % of BTC if any.
We have a word for that Laura
Dont sleep on Polkadot DOT!!!
It’s time to stop bragging about Forbes experience in the into. You sound unconfident.
Has anyone thought about a crypto shark tank? Seems like a no brainier. Get King Arthur and a few other founders to comprise the panel.
Why is will here? He was using on chain analytics in 2022 saying there's no chance btc goes below $40k lmao.
This was underwhelming
Will is now quite boring.
Will seems to be drinking gallons lol
Filcoin is shit. Do you research. It's too inflationary. There are competitors that are deflationary.
Arthur so great “it’s Binance smart chain for white people” 😂😂😂
THE $ZYN STAYS IN
Appreciate the content… but it was painful to listen to with all the “um’s”. Definitely worth retraining your brain to stop using “um “ and “like”.
1M before summer, 1B (BILLION) before fall. And then it will just go parabolic
Safest bet. Look at the chart, numbers do not lie.
Bitcion is the answer
Buy Bitcoin
What are you smoking?????
@@jorgemoro5476 no BTC ever in my portfolio, and how it could be when even Bitcoins forks exist so many? Bitcoin Cash - the same tech, the same limit of 21M, the same halving April 8, 2020., the same value proposition. So, what's the point? The point is that the more insanly your argument is the more obvious it becomes that this is all just a digital chain letter
I guess am I missing somthing, who the fuck trades on coinbase with such high fees while there is Binance? people constantly speak about 100m users base have that is more than US population. Laura please find a why to answer this question
People who can't use it, sadly
Safety. US publicly listed company, founded in 2012, weathered 3 bear markets. Rich people do not care about an extra 1% in fees. They care about wipeout risk.
@@phil_w who can't use Binance? is a VPN away and saves u a ton of money
@@khader88 Is this a joke? 1% times 100 trades equals 100% in fees in addition have u already forgot FTX?
Just fyi Arthur, when transactions fail on Solana, you are not charged a fee and the transaction is not counted as a transaction in tps metrics…… The TPS isn’t BS. A lot of it is bots, but they are real TPS. Hope this helps. Great convo otherwise.
When I saw this was about btc and not ETH I didn’t bother watching…. And I own one btc..
Why would they bother discussing ETH?
@@diddy1302 Ladies and gentelman... crypto noob spotted.
@@taccntb4345 don’t beat yourself up. You will understand one day. It takes time.
I'm new to crypto!. How can I make money from crypto investment as crypto is turning around massively.?
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
I personally employ Ms. Evelyn Turner as my t'rader. Her ability to t'rade and produce big pro:fits, in my opinion, is excellent.
Yeah that's right I think the best way is to invest with a professional, at least it saves the trauma of too much losses.
@ScottMelker-tg5zv
Really you actually knew her?I thought I was the only one she has helped me through the fears and falls of trading
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
@arthurhayes Base is Binance smart chain for white people.
Base is bullish for SOL. Newbs are gonna to look at Eth gas for Base and run to Sol.
ZYN coin most midcurve take i have every heard of a memecoin. Utility is bearish, ppl just want to laugh
still remember when will got everyone to buy the top cuz he had a glassnode account. kids been rekt
Arthur Hayes looks like Tyrone Biggums. WTF. Meant to be a millionaire and wearing a busted up sports vest to an interview. WTAF.
That’s why he’s a millionaire
That's part of his appeal. He's rich enough to do his own thing, even if it means wearing a tank top to an interview.
Billionaire not millionaire
... always take financial advice from people in muscle-tees..
Well when that dude in a muscle-tee is worth 9-figures you probably should.
@@rosco544 Even when that same dude co-founded a scammy trading platform? I remember him saying in an interview in 2018, "I don't care what the price price does, I make money either way."
He also pumps browncoins which should tell you all you need to know right there. He doesn't have your best interests at heart.
lol, that makes it even more sad…
so imagine I would call binance smart chain "the base chain for black people". I am here cuz I appreciate Arthus' takes. But this sort of rhetoric has to stop.
Visiting this episode in a few weeks to see how wrong these two were.
Shilling shitcoins. Classic fiat mentality
7
Will was Bitcoiner but is now a hardcore Shitcoiner but holds most of his wealth in bitcoin. Work it out.
poor moderator frankly.
I think the halving is overhyped
Arthur looking like a homeless water-skier
This guy should be in jail but ok
Dude loses a lot of credulity when every second word is a swear word, Low IQ
It was interesting until the F bombs and coarse language started. Had to go elsewhere.
Bunch of crap coiners
Arthur your lips look gr o s s
This dude looks like a homeless guy
why buying BTC for $63k when you can buy BSV for $66 it's the same bitcoin but for less money
Altcoins coiling up for another huge move....particularly SOL. Only 10% of SOL txnxs are failing now and they are still pushing new updates. When demand to use Solana increases yet again, it may congest, then they will adapt/modify and the show will go on. Its easy for other chain users to criticise Solana but there isn't even users on the other chains...ETH gas is down to 8 gwei today...nobody's over there, other chains are not in the same stratosphere with regards to txns, demand and users, so the criticism isn't even justified in the first place. What would crypto have without Solana ....crappy, slow , expensive dapps with anti network effects pushing new users and potential away....be grateful for Solana...if your crying about the market share Solana is taking and will continue to take from your bags get off your pity pot, eat some humble pie and start accumulating the SOL token.
$MAGE will pump hard
Twitts still bobbing the knob of meme coin btc.. It’s sickening that ETH has been marginalized by centralized $&@? coins. Base = ETH, normies..
Will now become shit coiner
Arthur , don’t lie Ethena will fall same as did Luna . Shit 💩 always same , stinks from a mile away
E-tuk tuk has a cool mission, would love to see some eco-friendly NFTs tied to it 🛺🌱