What Are the Odds of a Trump Win This November? | 538 Politics Podcast
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- čas přidán 8. 05. 2024
- The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% - but does 538 agree?
Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced.
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The downvotes will continue until the podcast is posted in full
If the 538 podcast is now just on Apple and Spotify, this looks like the death of the 538 podcast. I'm a long time listener, but this is probably going to lose me.
really? it takes seconds to sub them spotify ore apple. Is that just too much trouble?
@@aarondavid826 Don't use either, don't plan to use either. There are better platforms, no idea why YT can't suffice.
@@stargobo same here, no plan on listening to podcasts. I detest their decision.
Not everybody uses Spotify. I want all my podcasts in ONE PLACE and I use CZcams. I like my app drawer to be clean. I want to use as few as possible and not have redundant apps that serve the same purposes. I used to use Google podcasts but they switched to I don't want to subscribe to Spotify or listen to ads on its free version.
It's the same reason I've started disdaining video streaming. Not that I can't afford it but it's so fucking fragmented these days where I just would rather download the shows I wanna see and put them in plex.
@@aarondavid826
Am I missing something? I don't use either and I seem to be getting everything. Are we just talking about a delay in posting or are some episodes apple.and Spotify only? @@stargobo
Just one more person saying that moving to audio-only platforms for the majority of the podcast is a big mistake. I hope the people in editorial control are listening and watching the numbers.
please post full episodes to youtube
Idk why they stopped
@@charlesmiv3842 Money, money, money!!
I’ve enjoyed FiveThirtyEight analysis since I found them in 2018. Have to say, ABC has changed this a lot and I’m not a big fan anymore. If you noticed your viewership numbers declining in the last month its because I have no interest in these short “fun” political vibe videos.. I want hard data analysis with perspectives on what the data could mean.
Just a friendly recommendation - a QR code in a CZcams video doesn’t make sense! You could just put a link!
It's also not that hard to search 538 into your favorite podcast app.
I do agree the obsession with QR codes is weird, if it's digital a link makes more sense.
Yeah whoever decided to use a QR code in a digital context has no idea what they’re doing
i think it's because these short videos will be posted multiple places including websites where there won't necessarily be a description where you can place a link. like on the abc news website i assume these videos will pop up randomly on autoplay in different articles.
@@ckqI don't use any podcast apps and I don't intend on signing up for any
@@ckqThey're no longer on your 'favorite app', they're exclusive to Apple & Spotify. You can't even get the full episodes on their site.
Just post the full episode to CZcams with a static slide background if you must. It’s a platform people use and are familiar with accessing content via.
Why did you guys leave CZcams?
ABC is killing the brand. Clare was the canary in the coal mine, Silver was the death sentence. 538 is just a death row inmate waiting for the chair.
@@TheOmildlyOinformed which one is Clare? I know Nate left a couple years ago
bc they are censored af.
@@2FLIPS3.5TWISTS how?
Just FYI, this is practically click bait. Nate himself said that the betting markets are not better predictors than polls. The participants are looking at the same polls we are. And you can tell from the odd 3rd party odds. Only the stat models are reliable.
I think they understand that. It's just a fun character when you're having a conversation about the vibes of a situation.
The betting market in this context is just to bring up conversation
Very sad to no longer be able to watch these in full on CZcams.
What are the odds that 538's viewership still supports them this November?
That may depend on what this model is that they're talking about. I understand Nate took his model with him, so have they created a new model from scratch? With no track record, I'm not sure how much confidence people are going to have in it.
@@thomasdalton1508 oh man, I knew he left, but didn't know he took his forecast model too. That's rough.
@@WarMonkeyPlays He didn't leave. They kicked him out.
@@thomasdalton1508 Oof, also - meant to thank you for the update in my first comment, so thanks
@@thomasdalton1508they didn't renew his contract. Could just be he was too expensive.
Wait, where's the rest of it??? 😭😭😭😭
Basically, if the election was today, Trump would be favored to win most of the swing states, while Biden needs to win PA, MI, and WI.
I think Trump's odds will go down over time and it's be pretty close to 50/50, I probably slightly favor Biden to win since the more people get to know about Trump and Biden, the more they'll favor Biden.
Biden will absolutely dominate the older population (relative to expectation), he just needs the younger population to like him more.
Biden is now also leading in arizona, and in nevada with RFK off the ticket, and its becoming doubtful he will be on the ticket in Nevada
No he wouldn’t be. The polling is shit and the betting markets have been overbidding on Trump chances since 2020.
@@NoPastNoFate : I agree that people are overestimating Trump's odds. The man lost the popular vote by pretty solid margins in two elections. He lucked into an EC win in 2016 and ever since, there's been an overcorrection by panicked pollsters who think they "got it wrong" back then. But in every election since then, Republicans have underperformed, so there's a disconnect somewhere in the idea that somehow Trump will do better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or 2016. What's the logic in that? Where would these new voters come from?? Is Biden that unpopular that his support would just disappear to the point where Trump would win after trying to overthrow an election he lost four years ago? I just find that hard to believe. My take is that most Democrats will "come home" to Biden, and independents aren't likely to want to risk another four years of Trump. They just need to be reminded of how they felt while he was actually in office.
@@NoPastNoFateTrump is winning 2024...Sorry to burst your bubble
I think I’ll unsubscribe for now. Good luck getting to 200k. I’ll be back when your content returns.
Welp, guess no more podcast for me.
Shame.
Especially if you’re uploading all these clips, not sure how this even helps you…
It’s not clear how one can be so precise with win odds. With % of vote, sure
Yikes 11 days later Polymarket now has Trump at 56%
No wonder I don't see these recommended anymore. Gatekeeping what has become a worse and worse product is insane. Brush up those resumes.
Predict It has the Democratic Party at 54 cents and Republican Party at 48 cents. They also have Biden up by 4 cents over Trump.
It’s been too long since you guys did a long form.
Apparently they dropped it on YT. Which is really lame.
This is not very useful. You can't do accurate probabilistic inference based on vibes.
Thats obviously not true because they just did it.
@@wizarddragonMost viewers have a statistical background, we want data driven analysis, not vibes driven. Not to diminish the role vibes can play in determining an election, but it shouldn't be the central point.
@@wizarddragon what leads you to believe it's accurate?
@@wizarddragon The accuracy has not been determined, so they did not just make accurate inferences based on vibes.
I really enjoyed the podcast but if you think im going to head to a different platform to hear it you got to be kidding.
I would sell. But who cares what I would do. The trouble with betting markets is that many of the people who are betting are not honest brokers. Literally. They aren’t there to dispassionately make money. They are there to root for their team. And in some cases, they may intentionally be trying to move the betting markets in a direction for political strategic reasons. I wouldn’t know what numbers to put on these candidates, but I do know the single most important piece of data and which side it favors. And so do you. It is the result of the last election, between these same two candidates.Thats not a poll or a betting market, iits an actual election. Biden won. By a medium small margin but certainly not razor thin. For Trump to win the rematch, several percent of the population in swing states have to think this: “I made a mistake last time by voting for Biden. This time im going to vote for Trump.” And this has to be a net gain. There will of course be some voters who do the opposite, flipping from Trump to Biden. In any normal scenario, Biden will have a higher chance to win than Trump. Normal scenarios include things like “Biden mumbled some nonsense.” Or “Inflation is still above target.” Or “Trump made a reasonable VP choice.” Or “There is fighting in the Middle East.” An extraordinary event could of course change things. But at the moment there isn’t one. This doesn’t mean Trump can’t win. Of course he can, any major party candidate always has a reasonable chance to win. You have to understand that probability less than 50% doesn’t make something rare. If you roll a normal die there is only a 17% chance of getting a six. But it happens all the time and no one would be shocked to see that outcome.
I must have been lucky as a kid because I got a lot of double sixes in Yahtzee.
I can't envision how that could have turned out less interesting.
Its terrifying that Trump is polling as high as he is. I cant believe that Id ever see the day when half of Americans would vote for open fascism.😟
They've gerrymandered the districts so much: if elections were fair, republicans would always lose, and that's not fair! So we redraw the maps to make it 50/50 every time
it's literally not fascism though, it's simply called "opposing political figure i disagree with"
@@AbdullaFilmAS no its literal fascism.
@@shiftymenno okay, do elaborate
@@AbdullaFilmAS 1. The rejection of democracy, the rule of law and equal rights under the law in favor of a strongman who interprets the popular will.
“The election was stolen.” (Trump, 2020)
“I am your justice … I am your retribution.” (Trump, 2023)
Authoritarians believe society needs strong leaders to maintain stability. They vest in a dictator the power to maintain social order through the use of force (armies, police, militia) and bureaucracy.
By contrast, fascists view strong leaders as the means of discovering what society needs. They regard the leader as the embodiment of society, the voice of the people.
2. The galvanizing of popular rage against cultural elites.
“Your enemies” are “media elites”, … “the elites who led us from one financial and foreign policy disaster to another”. (Trump, 2015, 2016)
Authoritarians do not stir people up against establishment elites. They use or co-opt those elites to gain and maintain power.
By contrast, fascists galvanize public rage at presumed (or imaginary) cultural elites and use mass rage to gain and maintain power. They stir up grievances against those elites for supposedly displacing average people and seek revenge. In doing so, they create mass parties. They often encourage violence.
3. Nationalism based on a dominant “superior” race and historic bloodlines.
“Tremendous infectious disease is pouring across the border.” (Trump, 2015)
“Jewish people that vote for a Democrat [show] great disloyalty.” (Trump, 2019)
“Getting critical race theory out of our schools is … a matter of national survival.” (Trump, 2022)
Authoritarians see nationalism as a means of asserting the power of the state. They glorify the state. They want it to dominate other nations.
Authoritarianism seeks to protect or expand its geographic boundaries. It worries about foreign enemies encroaching on its territory.
By contrast, fascism embodies what it considers a “superior” group - based on race, religion and historic bloodlines. Nationalism is a means of asserting that superiority.
Fascists worry about disloyalty and sabotage from groups within the nation that don’t share the same race or bloodlines. These “others” are scapegoated, excluded or expelled, sometimes even killed.
Fascists believe schools and universities must teach values that extol the dominant race, religion and bloodline. Schools should not teach inconvenient truths (such as America’s history of genocide and racism).
4. Extolling brute strength and heroic warriors.
“You’ll never take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength and you have to be strong. (Trump, 6 January 2021)
“I am your warrior.” (Trump, 2023)
The goal of authoritarianism is to gain and maintain state power. For authoritarians, “strength” comes in the form of large armies and munitions.
Don’t be fooled - Trump’s presidential run is gaining more and more momentum
Lloyd Green
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By contrast, the ostensible goal of fascism is to strengthen society. Fascism’s method of accomplishing this is to reward those who win economically and physically and to denigrate or exterminate those who lose.
Fascism depends on organized bullying - a form of social Darwinism. For the fascist, war and violence are means of strengthening society by culling the weak and extolling heroic warriors.
5. Disdain of women and fear of non-standard gender identities or sexual orientation.
“When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.” (Trump, 2005)
“You have to treat ’em like shit.” (Trump, 1992)
“[I will] promote positive education about the nuclear family … rather than erasing the things that make men and women different.” (Trump, 2023)
Authoritarianism imposes hierarchies. Authoritarians seek order.
By contrast, fascism is organized around the particular hierarchy of male dominance. The fascist heroic warrior is male. Women are relegated to subservient roles.
In fascism, anything that challenges the traditional heroic male roles of protector, provider and controller of the family is considered a threat to the social order.
Fascism seeks to eliminate homosexual, transgender and queer people because they are thought to challenge or weaken the heroic male warrior.
These five elements of fascism reinforce each other:
Rejection of democracy in favor of a strongman depends on galvanizing popular rage.
Popular rage draws on a nationalism based on a supposed superior race or ethnicity.
That superior race or ethnicity is justified by social Darwinist strength and violence, as exemplified by heroic warriors.
Strength, violence and the heroic warrior are centered on male power.
These five elements find exact expression in Donald Trump and the white Christian nationalist movement he is encouraging. This is also the direction that most of the Republican party is now heading.
They are not the elements of authoritarianism. They are the essential elements of fascism.
America’s mainstream media is by now comfortable talking and writing about Trump’s authoritarianism. In describing what he is seeking to impose on America, the media should be using the term fascism.
🔥🔥 VOTE BLUE 💙 Up and Down the Ballot in November for the Greater Good of the Country and the WORLD 🔥🔥💙🌍💙🇱🇷💙🇱🇷💙🇱🇷💙🇱🇷💙🇱🇷💙🇱🇷💙
I NEVER sit through an hour long podcast just to get some information.
I have lost so much respect for FiveThirtyEight over the last few years. These guys are more clueless and out of touch than a B tier freshman into poli-sci class.
Dear god….
It’s fun to talk about, but I would not trust their opinions
Hailey just got 21% of the vote in Indiana two months after dropping out. Trump's GOP support is very soft.
Dumb comment. Trump’s grip on the GOP is absolute. Dem support of Biden is a what’s very soft and weak.
Hopefully the Biden team takes advantage of that and reaches out to them more, as well as other disaffected Republicans. Biden got the endorsement of former Georgia Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan, and there are potentially other Republicans he could get help from as well.
If only we had closed primaries
@@realCyng : Those were closed primaries. (Correction, both North Carolina and Indiana have Mostly closed primaries, which means that unaffiliated voters can register to vote for one party. However, you cannot simply switch from Democrat to Republican in order to vote in the primary. So at best you have Republican-leaning independents not affiliated with a party beforehand)
@@bryanismyname7583 I doubt it
538 is crap.
It’s gonna be close
Yeah, you're going to lose me too.
When I saw this I assumed you had your model ready. There is very little value in 538 until the model is published. I get you need to do punditry to run a business, but you're not great at it.
Not that I disagree with you here, but I place no value in your opinion that, as you admitted, "is based on vibes."
_"What Are the Odds of a Trump Win This November?"_
*Zero.*
Next question?
Sadly, it's not "zero," but I'm a little surprised they think his odds are higher than 47%. Polling is trending slightly but pretty surely in Biden's direction right now (an ABC poll, a NPR poll and others have been showing him take a slight lead) as more people settle into the reality that Trump will be the Republican nominee this fall. That reality is very slow to kick in for people who don't pay attention to the daily ins and outs of politics, which is most people actually. Let's be honest about that. So, my feeling is that Biden will continue to do better as the race gets closer. But of course I could be wrong. Turnout will be key.
@@bryanismyname7583 agree, if anything, I suspect it's closer to the reverse. I still think Trump unfortunately has over a 40% of winning, but low 40s.
@@bryanismyname7583 Not to mention Hailey is still getting 20% of the Republican vote. She just got 21% in Indiana. There is a large number of Republicans that just don't like Trump.
Biden has approval ratings in the 30s and his two biggest problems are the economy where Trump is highly favored and his mental faculties due to his age. Which he can do nothing about. So at least 50/50 sounds right to me.
what did I just listen to? why do they need to make this so convoluted
I might vote for Pat Paulson or Vermin Supreme (despite that Paulson has passed on). Vermin wears a rubber boot on his head and runs on gingivitis and zombie power and will give everyone a pony. Paulson was dry witted and very funny. I like him too.
I like these shorter videos. (I wish you'd cut up your longer videos more often.)
I will be stunned if Biden wins
We don't care.
RFK in the mix
Only to bring down the votes on the other 2. How much is the big question. Like they said, a third party winner is extremely small if not near zero.
You’d think the brain worm story would kill his candidacy but evidently a slice of the US electorate isn’t operating in “conventional” terms.
The jury is still out on who is actually helped by his candidacy. But his own team has said they would like to help Trump. So, I'm not sure why a Democrat-leaning voter would go for him at this point.
@@bryanismyname7583 exactly. Even his own family has said they endorse Biden.
Pretty dam good ! Oh by the way FJB and puppet masters
FJB