Love the back and forth discussion between respectfully different points of view. Provides a different type of value. Less secure pundits prefer just speech delivery.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
True. I first came across investing in the market in 2019. Already stashed about $480k in savings then, and the free money from the Government was pouring in, increasing inflation rate. I just got an advisor and kept the money there, just because I didn't want to keep the value of the money depreciating in the bank. Tbh, it's the best investment decision I've made since then.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
@@EPBResearch your current mic is probably okay, it's just maybe turn down the gain and put it closer. also sound reflection absorbers would help. You can make them pretty cheap by making a frame with some wood or whatever and wrapping about 3 towels around it and stapling them to basically make a towel canvas. they work amazing and work better than more expensive out of the box solutions you can buy for like 10x the cost.
@@kalef1234 Turns out that this ended up getting recorded on my local computer mic vs. my external mic which was plugged in and ready to go. So just a mistake on my end.
Valid comments on the mic. Turns out that this ended up getting recorded on my local computer mic vs. my external mic which was plugged in and ready to go. So just a mistake on my end. Hopefully it didn't take much away from the conversation.
What a mess right? I mean I didn't ask for someone to come in and give me forgiveness of forbearance on my car or house loan. A loan is a loan. Pay your loan. If you can't file bancrupcy and start your journey over. The rest of society should not be penalized for decisions an individual made.
Labor market is rough right now. I’ve got friends looking for work and not getting called back. Not sure if the data he’s looking at includes all those revisions they do after the fact.
Intersting. The unemployment numbers show that your friends should be having no problem at all getting a job. In fact there are over 1 million openings. Which means what? It means the jobs numbers are being cooked and things are way worse than they are telling us and companies are posting ghost jobs that they have no intention of hiring for to make their company appear to be in much better shape then it really is. Which means we are on the cusp of a recession. Sorry to hear about your friends.
@@bpb5541 Just because unemployment is low doesn't mean it's easy to find jobs. It simply means they are holding onto who they have but not looking for more.
I don't think housing starts is a useful indicator of much anymore because housing starts has been restricted by restrictive zoning more so than macro economic conditions. There is basically a huge "booking' backlog for housing from decades of under building.
If there really was "underbuilding" why are the builders sitting on so much unsold inventory and playing the trickle-out games so as to not let too many homes on the market at once? The smart ones pivoted to smaller, less profitable homes, while the greedier ones kept building mcmansions that millennial cannot afford. There is no actual shortage of toilets and bedrooms in America, only severe market distortions, caused by terrible interest rate and immigration policies, plus some demographic curiosities (Boomers aging in place). If those distortions ever clear up, there will be an ocean of negative equity.
The builders already overbuilt. There is not a inventory issues in a lot of the markets. But there is an affordability issue. Should we get even a slight pullback in housing prices... I think it could be one of the things (black swans) that starts the fire that burns everything to the ground. It is only one of 15 possible black swans I am watching. We will see which one kicks us off.
The standard 5min EPB weekly video has 50x the insights of a nearly 90min interview with this particular guest. Never heard someone talk so much...while managing to say so little.
Well it certainly made the rich richer... just like the GFC did. At some point their thieving is going to break everything. This will effect them too. They just might not be smart enought to understand that but they will.
Inflation isn't going away. My mother-in-law refinanced into a fresh 30... sure she's going to be in debt until she's 90 but her mortgage went down by over $1,100 a month. This was done by people (and businesses) all over the country. So instead of servicing mortgage debt now that $1,100 gets spent on Amazon, airplane tickets, lawn maintenance etc and the FED wonders why we have an inflation problem.
@@PermanentExile I can answer that. Inflation is self-correcting because investors need "real yield" to be positive. For example if inflation is 5% no investor is going to buy a bond paying 3.5% because that is a guaranteed loss of 1.5%. So long as we have inflation, we will have higher rates... and higher rates will eventually break our hyper-leveraged economy that has grown to depend on extremely cheap borrowing cost. This will eventually cause deflation because the high prices of things like real estate can only exist with very cheap loans.
Bro is not right. Money did expand. It was "printed." Again this year we will see a 2 trillion deficit much of which will be bought up on the balance sheet of the fed. Yes, not all of it went into inflating asset prices more of it got into people's paycheck on aggregate, but that's why we have inflation.
We printed more money in the span of 3 years than has ever been in existance EVER. you are very correct. That was very infaltionary. There are other things but that is the primary reason. In order to get it down we need interest rates to go up not down and unemployment to surge. Until then inflation keeps going utnil no one can afford anything and buisnesses go under anyways, then unemployment surges. I think we get the later which is what we are seeing... a slow burn until folks can't afford anything. WE are already seeing it in the car market. No is buying cars and car prices are falling rapidly. This will happen to both the stock and housing market ... just might take a bit longer. Now if we get a black swan all bets are off.
I have not received any good explanation for the incredible increase in the cost of living meaning rent auto insurance food electricity Multiples of the CPI Commodities are cheap relatively So I fall back on my conspiracy The goal is to drive 90 percent of Americans to leave the USA and emigrate to other countries
We printed more money in 3 years than has ever existed in the history of mankind. Too much money chasing too few goods... equals infaltion. At some point the debt based fiat currencies go to zero. This means only real assets will be worth anything. Think commodities, gold, silver, BTC, land. Most other things that are tied to the currency go worthless. So if you are correct commodities might not be a bad thing to start going long on. I think the US goverment can kick the can down the road a bit further... we will see.
Love the back and forth discussion between respectfully different points of view. Provides a different type of value. Less secure pundits prefer just speech delivery.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
True. I first came across investing in the market in 2019. Already stashed about $480k in savings then, and the free money from the Government was pouring in, increasing inflation rate. I just got an advisor and kept the money there, just because I didn't want to keep the value of the money depreciating in the bank. Tbh, it's the best investment decision I've made since then.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Top content. But mate please up your mic game.
X2
I'm working on it!
Got a new one to try on the next one.
@@EPBResearchwait. Try it before the next one.
@@EPBResearch your current mic is probably okay, it's just maybe turn down the gain and put it closer. also sound reflection absorbers would help. You can make them pretty cheap by making a frame with some wood or whatever and wrapping about 3 towels around it and stapling them to basically make a towel canvas. they work amazing and work better than more expensive out of the box solutions you can buy for like 10x the cost.
@@kalef1234 Turns out that this ended up getting recorded on my local computer mic vs. my external mic which was plugged in and ready to go. So just a mistake on my end.
Great listenThanks for the level-headed, rational discussion!
Great stuff. Thank you both!
Great interview Eric. I hope you're doing well
great interview
these comments, lol...ur mic game is fine, btw...best convo on macro ive seen in a while...get lyn alden on, shes my econ crush...
Valid comments on the mic. Turns out that this ended up getting recorded on my local computer mic vs. my external mic which was plugged in and ready to go. So just a mistake on my end. Hopefully it didn't take much away from the conversation.
What about factoring in Student Loan Forbearance?
What a mess right? I mean I didn't ask for someone to come in and give me forgiveness of forbearance on my car or house loan. A loan is a loan. Pay your loan. If you can't file bancrupcy and start your journey over. The rest of society should not be penalized for decisions an individual made.
Labor market is rough right now. I’ve got friends looking for work and not getting called back. Not sure if the data he’s looking at includes all those revisions they do after the fact.
High employment but not hiring anyone new is the first sign. Labor market is always lag indicator.
Intersting. The unemployment numbers show that your friends should be having no problem at all getting a job. In fact there are over 1 million openings. Which means what? It means the jobs numbers are being cooked and things are way worse than they are telling us and companies are posting ghost jobs that they have no intention of hiring for to make their company appear to be in much better shape then it really is. Which means we are on the cusp of a recession. Sorry to hear about your friends.
@@bpb5541 Just because unemployment is low doesn't mean it's easy to find jobs. It simply means they are holding onto who they have but not looking for more.
@@Etaoinshrdlu69its not low the gov numbers are rigged... real unemployment is 21p not 4p
@@marsmotion its low around the world...are all those rigged as well?
I don't think housing starts is a useful indicator of much anymore because housing starts has been restricted by restrictive zoning more so than macro economic conditions.
There is basically a huge "booking' backlog for housing from decades of under building.
2008, with record overbuilding, was decades ago? 16M empty houses per the U.S. Census Bureau.
If there really was "underbuilding" why are the builders sitting on so much unsold inventory and playing the trickle-out games so as to not let too many homes on the market at once? The smart ones pivoted to smaller, less profitable homes, while the greedier ones kept building mcmansions that millennial cannot afford. There is no actual shortage of toilets and bedrooms in America, only severe market distortions, caused by terrible interest rate and immigration policies, plus some demographic curiosities (Boomers aging in place). If those distortions ever clear up, there will be an ocean of negative equity.
The builders already overbuilt. There is not a inventory issues in a lot of the markets. But there is an affordability issue. Should we get even a slight pullback in housing prices... I think it could be one of the things (black swans) that starts the fire that burns everything to the ground. It is only one of 15 possible black swans I am watching. We will see which one kicks us off.
@@bpb5541 If you're watching them, then they aren't black swans. Just leading indicators at most (not saying you're wrong).
The standard 5min EPB weekly video has 50x the insights of a nearly 90min interview with this particular guest. Never heard someone talk so much...while managing to say so little.
Or maybe you just dont understand what Bob is saying?
Take your ritalin and watch it again.
Long story short, the preemptive billionaire bailouts of 2023 tore up the entire credit cycle rule book.
Well it certainly made the rich richer... just like the GFC did. At some point their thieving is going to break everything. This will effect them too. They just might not be smart enought to understand that but they will.
Inflation isn't going away. My mother-in-law refinanced into a fresh 30... sure she's going to be in debt until she's 90 but her mortgage went down by over $1,100 a month. This was done by people (and businesses) all over the country. So instead of servicing mortgage debt now that $1,100 gets spent on Amazon, airplane tickets, lawn maintenance etc and the FED wonders why we have an inflation problem.
And she employed a bunch of people with her spending
We are in the beginning of a deflationary recession
@@FeelingPeculiarWhat’s your argument and evidence for why this will occur, and why it has begun?
Why in gods name did she do that? That sounds like a horrible fincaial decision. It is better to have no loans.. including a mortgage.
@@PermanentExile I can answer that. Inflation is self-correcting because investors need "real yield" to be positive. For example if inflation is 5% no investor is going to buy a bond paying 3.5% because that is a guaranteed loss of 1.5%. So long as we have inflation, we will have higher rates... and higher rates will eventually break our hyper-leveraged economy that has grown to depend on extremely cheap borrowing cost. This will eventually cause deflation because the high prices of things like real estate can only exist with very cheap loans.
Bro is not right. Money did expand. It was "printed." Again this year we will see a 2 trillion deficit much of which will be bought up on the balance sheet of the fed. Yes, not all of it went into inflating asset prices more of it got into people's paycheck on aggregate, but that's why we have inflation.
We printed more money in the span of 3 years than has ever been in existance EVER. you are very correct. That was very infaltionary. There are other things but that is the primary reason. In order to get it down we need interest rates to go up not down and unemployment to surge. Until then inflation keeps going utnil no one can afford anything and buisnesses go under anyways, then unemployment surges. I think we get the later which is what we are seeing... a slow burn until folks can't afford anything. WE are already seeing it in the car market. No is buying cars and car prices are falling rapidly. This will happen to both the stock and housing market ... just might take a bit longer. Now if we get a black swan all bets are off.
After sixteen minutes I still don't understand the benefit of looking at "nominal" rather than "real".
Bro, do an interview with Gottfried feder. Let's talk about actual economics, instead of this insane usury stuff. Till then, I'ma bang, and piece
Lewis Ronald Thomas Jessica Johnson Linda
Get Danielle dimartino booth on the podcast
Please don't.
First
BS bla bla bla
I have not received any good explanation for the incredible increase in the cost of living meaning rent auto insurance food electricity
Multiples of the CPI
Commodities are cheap relatively
So I fall back on my conspiracy
The goal is to drive 90 percent of Americans to leave the USA and emigrate to other countries
Commodity prices have increased by 25% in the last 4 years, which is roughly in line with consumer prices.
We printed more money in 3 years than has ever existed in the history of mankind. Too much money chasing too few goods... equals infaltion. At some point the debt based fiat currencies go to zero. This means only real assets will be worth anything. Think commodities, gold, silver, BTC, land. Most other things that are tied to the currency go worthless. So if you are correct commodities might not be a bad thing to start going long on. I think the US goverment can kick the can down the road a bit further... we will see.
No, the plan was to elect Trump.