![EPB Research](/img/default-banner.jpg)
- 90
- 8 809 971
EPB Research
United States
Registrace 21. 12. 2017
EPB Research is an independent firm providing economic cycle research with a heavy focus on how business cycles impact corporate profits & various asset prices.
These 3 Indicators Predict Every Recession
Join our Free Business Cycle Training - www.epbresearch.com/business-cycles-training
This video explores the Modified Duncan Leading Index, a powerful tool for predicting economic recessions by focusing on three key sectors: durable goods consumption, residential investment, and business equipment investment. Learn why these narrow segments, comprising less than 20% of the economy, are crucial for understanding economic cycles and get insights into what they're currently indicating about the possibility of a 2024 recession.
EPB Research Services: www.epbresearch.com/our-services
Video edited by: www.tranches.com
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
This video explores the Modified Duncan Leading Index, a powerful tool for predicting economic recessions by focusing on three key sectors: durable goods consumption, residential investment, and business equipment investment. Learn why these narrow segments, comprising less than 20% of the economy, are crucial for understanding economic cycles and get insights into what they're currently indicating about the possibility of a 2024 recession.
EPB Research Services: www.epbresearch.com/our-services
Video edited by: www.tranches.com
DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
zhlédnutí: 41 066
Video
Will we see a Recession in 2024? - Brian McCarthy vs Danny Dayan
zhlédnutí 4,8KPřed 14 dny
In episode 4 of Navigating Cycles, we reignite the debate between economic heavyweights Brian McCarthy and Danny Dayan, looking deeper into Fed policy and the economic horizon. Brian McCarthy served as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Emerging Sovereign Group where he managed the Nexus Fund, a China-focused macro hedge fund. Brian is a regular traveler to China where he has met with hu...
The US Debt Crisis (explained)
zhlédnutí 51KPřed měsícem
Join our Free Business Cycle Training - www.epbresearch.com/business-cycles-training In this video, we'll not only break apart the debt situation in the public sector (US Government), but also analyze the private sector's debt burden. And if you happen to make it to the end, I'll share my unfiltered thoughts on the future trajectory of the U.S. debt crisis from the perspective of an economist. ...
US Housing Inventory Crisis: Its Impact on Home Prices
zhlédnutí 47KPřed měsícem
Join our Free Business Cycle Training - www.epbresearch.com/business-cycles-training In this video, we look at the recent hanges in home inventory and its impact on US home prices Learn More About EPB Research: epbresearch.com/ Video edited by: www.tranches.com DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owne...
America's Income Crisis: How It's Triggering a Collapse in Birth Rates
zhlédnutí 114KPřed 2 měsíci
Join our Free Business Cycle Training - www.epbresearch.com/business-cycles-training In this video, we look at the impact of lower incomes on birth rates in the United States. Learn More About EPB Research: epbresearch.com/ Video edited by: www.tranches.com DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of...
Finance CEO: The 2024 Recession Is NOT Going As Expected - Bob Elliot
zhlédnutí 13KPřed 2 měsíci
Finance CEO: The 2024 Recession Is NOT Going As Expected - Bob Elliot
The Fed is WRONG About the 2024 Recession - Brian McCarthy vs Danny Dayan
zhlédnutí 11KPřed 2 měsíci
The Fed is WRONG About the 2024 Recession - Brian McCarthy vs Danny Dayan
The Housing Expert: "Why Home Prices Aren't Crashing Yet" - Logan Mohtashami
zhlédnutí 56KPřed 2 měsíci
The Housing Expert: "Why Home Prices Aren't Crashing Yet" - Logan Mohtashami
This Signal Flashed "Recession" For 22 Months Straight
zhlédnutí 39KPřed 2 měsíci
This Signal Flashed "Recession" For 22 Months Straight
Today's Home Price Gap is 19% Larger Than 2008
zhlédnutí 93KPřed 3 měsíci
Today's Home Price Gap is 19% Larger Than 2008
This indicator declined -16% before 2008. It's at -9% right now.
zhlédnutí 77KPřed 4 měsíci
This indicator declined -16% before 2008. It's at -9% right now.
Chart of the Week: Corporate Profit Margins
zhlédnutí 7KPřed 4 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Corporate Profit Margins
Chart of the Week: Residential Housing Construction
zhlédnutí 7KPřed 5 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Residential Housing Construction
Chart of the Week: Leading vs. Coincident Employment
zhlédnutí 6KPřed 5 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Leading vs. Coincident Employment
What Are Business Cycles? Economic Cycles Explained
zhlédnutí 10KPřed 5 měsíci
What Are Business Cycles? Economic Cycles Explained
Chart of the Week: Labor Market Conditions Index
zhlédnutí 6KPřed 5 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Labor Market Conditions Index
Chart of the Week: Labor Market Part Time Ratio
zhlédnutí 7KPřed 5 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Labor Market Part Time Ratio
Chart of the Week: Inflation Adjusted Broad Money Supply
zhlédnutí 9KPřed 5 měsíci
Chart of the Week: Inflation Adjusted Broad Money Supply
This "rule" only triggers before a recession
zhlédnutí 143KPřed 8 měsíci
This "rule" only triggers before a recession
This has never happened before (Housing Market)
zhlédnutí 328KPřed 8 měsíci
This has never happened before (Housing Market)
Why This "Perfect Downtrend" Won't Go Away
zhlédnutí 67KPřed rokem
Why This "Perfect Downtrend" Won't Go Away
Why This Curve Predicts Every Recession
zhlédnutí 81KPřed rokem
Why This Curve Predicts Every Recession
Home prices Are Declining in 75% of Major Cities
zhlédnutí 802KPřed rokem
Home prices Are Declining in 75% of Major Cities
Which U.S. Banks Are Still Under Pressure?
zhlédnutí 117KPřed rokem
Which U.S. Banks Are Still Under Pressure?
Martin Donald White Deborah Thompson Nancy
Lee Patricia Miller Charles Moore Patricia
Lee Jessica Lopez Jeffrey Jones Kimberly
Can you please send a link with an online resource for live Modified Duncan Leading Index? I would appreciate that if you have one <3
Taylor Sharon Gonzalez Brenda Young Ronald
Moore James Johnson Barbara Walker Jeffrey
Walker Betty Martinez Frank Robinson Steven
Government expenditures (including the new bloom in interest payments) should not be discounted/avoided. Debt is the root cause of climate change. Governments expenditures are more than 100% of the rest of the equation. At some point, currency no longer matters. Just authority. Not usually now freedom makes money.
With the us dollar dominating everything...you owe everybody ...NOTHING...Rack it up usa...you owe all of everybody else on the planet NOTHING ...Because you say so ! It will come and get you !!!
Totally wedded to GDP. Explains FA....Stick to real facts...your god GDP...
I was watching a video about the Middle East, and below was a video with your screensaver. I thought that maybe this is the attitude of business, government, and students in the US towards Israel.
Davis Jose Anderson Barbara Taylor Jeffrey
Young Nancy Jackson Steven Martinez Cynthia
What about the US's exploding national debt?
Good video. Arguably they should remove the stock market index as a leading indicator. Passive money flows have changed it to a lagging indicator.
Don't be innocent enough to think that if you fix the economy, the babies will suddenly start being born.
@spark300c Churches not paying taxes is a massive drain on a nation. Freeloading billionaires who do no useful work: Wall Street banksters executives, know-nothing influencers with podcasts is a huge problem. And continued inaction against Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) only accelerates inflation, delays and exponentially increases greater action that must be taken in the future. Car centric suburbs that force car centric extremism, unsustainable economically and environmentally.
Now we know the truth, what can little citizen can do? The government has no capability to down the debts. Government has no choice to cut spendings.
The following is not legal or financial advice. The government pumps money into Asset Markets to improve the economy. Stock market growth only helps people that are invested into that market. The average American lacks an emergency fund, let alone a stock market investment. Those that have stocks as part of their 401K rarely look at their 401K so gains in the stock market don't seem real, but the higher prices and low wages feel very real. The key takeaway is to be invested in the stock market, so that you can benefit when the asset markets go up. A pre-requisite for investing is at least a 3 month emergency fund and paying off credit card debts first.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $124k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
True. I first came across investing in the market in 2019. Already stashed about $480k in savings then, and the free money from the Government was pouring in, increasing inflation rate. I just got an advisor and kept the money there, just because I didn't want to keep the value of the money depreciating in the bank. Tbh, it's the best investment decision I've made since then.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Love this channel so much. Thank you for your hard work.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
Veronica Hoy strategy has normalised winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading
As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest, on which platform? If you know any please share.
The first time we had tried, we invested $1400 and after a week we received $5,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
Garcia Timothy Martin Melissa Taylor Cynthia
Robinson Sandra Hall Deborah Harris Dorothy
Recessions are inevitables
I am holding a cash position right now, of about 300k. I know a dip is supposed to be the buying opportunity, so whats the best stocks to dive into, in this recession?
Chose quality stocks and follow them up. If you're not one for such complexities, hire a wealth manager to grow your money.
True, my porfolio took a massive hit in 2022, and I almost sold everything to switch to cash savings. However, I was advised to consult a pro. Following the guidance of this CFA, my portolio started increasing by 10% monthly. She had anticipated the crash and rebalanced my portflio accordingly.
pls how can I reach this pro, there's bloodbath on my portolio. I really need some help rn
Victoria Louisa Saylor is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I Found her online page by searching her full name, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds
Are these numbers inflation adjusted? With the inflation that we have today it might make more sense why so many numbers are out of whack.
Hes been wrong for months. Maybe its time to have him back on and be square with the facts?
Wishing and hoping won’t stop this economy from crashing under Harris!
Great explanation and reading of data! Thanks
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 5% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Great analysis.
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Let's face it, increasing stock and index fund purchases during downturns and bear markets is unnerving. Which makes it very difficult for most people, like me, to do. It's challenging to incur the risk of investing the $1 million I have in an S&S.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $$275k to $850K...
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
Annette Christine Conte is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Saw another video of you dated over a year ago, where you predicted a recession within months…. Been almost 2 years now and we had a insane bullrun 😅
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine duguay program is widely available online..
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Francine's trade signal service.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
The clarity and precision in Francine market predictions are astounding. I'm so grateful to have found her reviews here on CZcams as well.
where i can get the Modified Duncan Leading Index graph?
I wouldnt trust Elon Musk's opinion at all... ask him about his kids...😅😅😅
I'm in the camp who think that what we are going through is a structural problem and not a cyclical one caused by overproduction (ie a recession). entering and exiting economic contraction will look different from a recession.
Don’t worry, women’s expectations for men will continue to rise, though!
Sooo... we are in a recession?
TID BIT OF INFO: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FORECLOSURES are on the rise. Keep an eye out . Dont just jump on the fake ppump
We'll know by the election if a recession is in the cards in early '25.
Everything in this cycle has taken longer. Dang skippy, that's what $1.92T in deficit spending does to the economy. It's VERY BUOYANT!
Its the governments debt, not mine, so go play out in the highway for all i care
Could you upload this to spotify? 😅
Fantastic explanation
I sold my home 2020 and I've been dollar cost averaging all year long and I've almost maxed out my reserve, so I'm basically waiting for stocks to fully recover so I can break even, but on the other hand, I've been coming by articles on people who are puIIing off recurring proflts of over $150K wlthln just weeks of trades, what am i doing wrong?
I sold a couple of homes in the Tampa area for pretty good cash and I'm thinking to just leave it in stocks while waiting for a house crash to happen and as well avoid inflation, but is this really a good time to buy stocks? I hear it's a madhouse right now and I still hear folks are raking in huge 6figure profits by the weeks and I'd love to know how.
look at it this way, while some folks are waiting to make minimal profits when stocks recover, some others folks already know where to look and what to do to make hefty gains in these times, so yea, it all boils down to knowledge to risk mltigation.
True, I was in dilemma myself due to this chaotic mrkt, wasn't sure if to sell or just wait a little longer, 75% of my portfolo was tanking and in the red and the economy isn’t looking promising, but I began gaiinng clarity and have more confidence in my invt through an lnvt-advlser, I know most DlY-lnvestor like me would say advlsors aren't essential, but come to think of it, they're better trained and equipped at this and if I have to give just a little amt in fees for me to be able to net $650K in less than 8months like I did this year, I truly don't mind.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is the professional that guides you?
Her name is Annette Christine Conte can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Us will have recession in 23 September.....I think so...??!!
Hit 100k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month this 2024 investing with a professional broker Belinda Owens.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Belinda Owens here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Belinda Owens has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery Glory to God shalom.
“You can see these three indicators predict *every* recession” Shows a chart that goes back 30 years.