Your videos are phenomenal. No filler, no grandstanding, no biased opinions. Just historical facts being used to interpret current macro trends. Thank you.
There have been several transactions with both strategic investors and private equity over the past 15 years since the Great Financial Crisis - oftentimes the PE component was not 100% and the capital raises were far less than $400 Million, money moves quickly from the hasty to the patient. The biggest hurdle for investors is maintaining mental control through losses, and investing in the right places at the right time
Purchasing stock in companies that are anticipated to have steady demand even during a slump is an obvious approach to invest for a recession. These companies typically include household goods, energy, and healthcare providers. Of course, an average Joe cannot make such selections; a financial counsellor is crucial in this process.
Everyone will need a strong FA to help them through the current market turmoil. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market conditions. I made more than $350K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an Financial Consultant is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
Dawn Maureen Humphrey is the Consultant that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over 3 decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info
It was easy locating your coach's webpage by looking up her name online. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call to use her services. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Market structure is radically different from the 1970s - back then, there were no algos, no high frequency trading, no dark pools, and basic computer-based trading was in its infancy. The minimum tick size for a quote was 1/8 dollar, and the roundtrip commission to execute a trade was like $20, which inflation adjusted today would be equivalent to $112 - and this required you to call up your broker on the phone for execution, which could take hours or even days. 2008 is much closer to our current structure, and as you can see today, even with breadth deteriorating, just 5-6 stocks can hold up the SP500, (temporarily) defying all fundamental/macro headwinds. This is clearly a result of the still-too-much excess liquidity sloshing around in the system as the result of the last QE.
I always found it funny thru the 90's how even then the biggest names would hold up even the Dow as well as SP and NASDAQ. And when AOL and Yahoo and several other companies part of the Dow went poop... they just swap that out for a the next winner chicken dinners. To make it look like the stoncks only take a little dip and over long term go up... not really the indices just pick winners. And dump losers. A big skew on what actual stocks do... most dwindle and eventually fall apart or get bought out forcing the holder to dump their shares... or it may get acquired by another ticker and dwindle over time. The indices, and in the case of the DOW are a distortion, the gimmick of stock gurus everywhere that throw money on a dartboard of stocks, and pick out their few winners, showing that to everyone saying look aren't a I a genius at stoncks, buy my brilliant stonck alert program! Come one come all! To my brilliant pretty penny! Despite the fact over their dartboard they generally lost big, with a few pretty pennies. Hence their subscription is their gimmickry that makes them money, not their trading... their stock salami fortune cookie scam. And ta'da! That's what makes them money. Otherwise if trading did make them so much money they'd be hiding in a secret location trading making themselves stupid rich.
Agreed! There's still 2 trillion sitting in Reverse Repo every night. High interest rates should decrease liquidity, but there's just so much money out there still waiting for a place to find returns
I think to add to what you are saying. There are many "Tools" in the hands of Government to mitigate negative markets with cash infusions, from bailouts to loans/Grants. Lots of fail safes make it a lot harder to knock down the market these days. So the Longer time trend for the 2008 recession seems the most likely trend to use. FYI, I am half way through the book Dark Pools which talks about what you mentioned. Very interesting stuff to hear how the market started and changed over time.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Not at all, having monitored edge my portfolio performance which has made a jaw dropping $483k from just the past two quarters alone, I have learned why experienced traders make enormous returns from the seemingly unknown market. I must say it's the boldest decision I've taken since recently.
Thank you for your videos. Yours is one of three channels that I follow, which I find to be high-yield and truly worth my time. I appreciate the succinct, scholarly, and non-sensational format of your presentations. Keep it up.
It seems like, in broad strokes, the rate hike cycle of the mid-2000s is direct cause of the inversion, and an indirect cause of the recession. That rate hike cycle lead to ARM adjustments in a vulnerable market which lead to defaults which led to an unwinding of derivatives, which led to a credit crunch which led to a recession. Essentially, a curve inversion was a leading indicator of an impending credit crunch; a forced-refinance at untenable rates. This time, the rate hike cycle also caused the inversion, but unlike 2006, almost everyone has an ultra-low fixed rate, and MBS derivatives aren't insane. So we need to identify which market is most vulnerable to the "forced-refinance." Perhaps regional banks? Perhaps corporations that leveraged up on low-cost debt? But with long-duration debt, that means a long lead time before the crunch. And with $1 Trillion in excess savings still out there, there's a lot of buying power left to sustain earnings and growth, pyric as they may be. Bottom line, where's the credit-sensitive market that's going to be upended by new, higher rates? Right? And is there any funny business (like CDOs of CDOs) that Main Street doesn't yet know about?
It was already defaulting in mid 2000 before any rate hike. The market was running out of suckers and bag holders for all that leveraged up bad debt. Same situation unfolding soon now.
Another indicator that has had a perfect record historically is the Cape Schiller ratio. And that has also reached recession predicting numbers recently.
Can you instead look at the length of time between the point the inversion stops i.e. zero spread at the point of turning positive again, and the start of the subsequent recession? Just looking at that chart it seems that gap is much smaller and potentially less variable. Would be interesting to see that comparison
Thanks for including a difficulty of timing the market with the inverted yield curve. Instead of timing the top, you could always start researching recessionary stocks, so you know where to put your money when you DCA or reallocate your portfolio. The inverted yield curve is only one of many tools you can use for anticipating the market.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
So, a stunning number of people today are still living their lifestyle while buying groceries on credit at high interest rates. Many have seen that as a facet of this age that was not present before, and that's why the stock market just keeps going. Normally, people would be pulling back, earnings would lessen, jobs would drop, and the market would drop. But if people just keep borrowing, I'm not sure past indicators of when the recession hits will prove a valid prediction. Also, really depends on what the government does leading into an election to help folks that did that.
I *think* looking at 50% of all yields inverted is even more accurate than the 3 month 10y. Both are great but 50% of all yields I think is one to also have an eye on.
The video is great, but I wish you touched upon the fundamentals of why the curve inversion predicts the recession -- what are the mechanics (What is the psychology) of market participants more heavily leaning on short term treasuries vs long term treasuries that make this a reliable indicator?
points to 2024 being the year for the most asset price drops and recession if similar to 2008, the main factors are the Fed's adjusting interest rates and unemployment (plus any federal government interventions)
I mean technically speaking, if you look at the true inflation rate , which is much higher than stated GDP , we have been in a perpetual recession since the early 90s. This is fundamental economics.
IMO the current inversion is the market betting the Fed will get inflation under control within the next decade more than a recession signal. If labor is going to kick off the recession I don't think it will happen- demographics have structurally tightened labor to the point I think we're in a new paradigm.
Thank you! Excellent work. My plan is to begin scaling in SPY shorts with 6-month expiration dates as soon as the yield curve begins to steepen for 2 months straight.
According to your inversion-recession chart, most recessions didn’t start until AFTER the inversion reversed. This may suggest we have a ways to go before a recession gets into full swing. Also, I wonder about the difficulty of comparing the present with past situations. We may already be in a recession but won’t have the data to confirm it until later.
Everyone is saying third-quarter this year the recession will start. That may be true. But you won’t start to feel it, or notice it until 3 to 6 months after it starts because of lagging indicators. So a recession will not be officially called until mid 24 or late 24. Notes; if you see the unemployment rate go up half a percent within a quarter there is trouble. If you start to hear family or friends, get reduced hours or work is slow there is trouble. If you don’t see, or hear these things, you literally have nothing to worry about, but be prepared.
I'm not sure this signal means anything anymore. The Fed balance sheet is gargantuan and without paying IOER short term rates today would be very close to 0%. The FOMC can literally make this signal anything they want overnight with these artificial means. In all cases before the balance sheet drove the market to adjust rates. Today, rates are entirely determined by central government policy. Look at Japan for example - 10 year rates are pegged just as today short rates are pegged in the USA. The signal is broken.
Very well laid out video! With this AI boom its getting difficult to stay focused on the looming recession. Looks like it could go on for awhile before getting ugly out there! All the best to everyone reading!!! Stay safe
at 3:27 why is there such a big gap b/w 14 month average ( -0.04%) and 15 month average (-.14%)? I wouldnt cherry pick month 15. The 10Y3M is a good predictor of recessions, but the timing issue makes it very hard to come up with a strategy that wouldve been profitable in the past without cherry picking.
Yeah i wish bro , ive shorted spy a month now only to see AI headlines left and right dragging investors in, just 10 companies are literally driving the market right now ...
So based on the probabilities of these leading indicators and the possible timeframes the crash will likely happen for this recession cycle, wouldnt it be smarter to begin moving money from my index funds that will most certainly be net negative over the next couple of years and instead invest more so into HYSA/money markets and commodities like gold?
It will fall somewhere in between 3500 and 2500. Take SPX and divide by M2 and it gives you support around there. But it has already fallen to 3500 so the worse in terms of performance could be over.
You are wrong. The economy has been in a recession since 2008 and possibly since 2001. What's been going on since then is lots of malinvestment leveraged built upon that malinvestment. Also tons of bailouts and bonuses to banksters for generating all that malinvestment. The graph should be showing that grey area expanded all the way from at least 2008 to the present as one large gray block.
Was just thinking about this. I ignore the macroeconomics as much as possible. Did the United States avoid recession this year? There was a lot of news about incoming recession earlier this year so I am confused
@@dannyrobles6947 guess americans are waiting for that but I should be more interested in the fact that the implosion is already priced in the stock market. The market bottomed like a year ago
The 2019 yield curve inversion should be looked at as if it was a false positive. The economy was likely to improve not get worse had the pandemic not occurred.
False, a recession was already going to occur early 2020...At best, covid was seen as a threat to turn the recession into a depression...at worst, it was a conspiracy to save big asset holders...
I hope a recession happens. I need a recession to occur. However, so many rules, trends, and predictable outcomes have been broken during and after covid ... that it wouldn't surprise me that this will also be yet another to fail to occur. We might just move along just fine and inflation settles down but nothing will remotely get back to normal.
I don't know about you two first claims but I 100% agree with the main one that covid and how governments and consumers reacted around the world screwed up a lot of 'common sense' in classic economics. In our lifetime, we experienced what happens when unemployment went to 15-20%, and what that meant was that a majority of people were still working and even encouraged to spend. Banks also came to the rescue of those hit hard by refinancing properties so a real recession was avoided.
Your videos are phenomenal. No filler, no grandstanding, no biased opinions. Just historical facts being used to interpret current macro trends. Thank you.
ai with a personal touch. but yes very good
@@RealLifeFinance Humans are just AI with a personal touch.
No filler. All clear data or drama. Thanks
There have been several transactions with both strategic investors and private equity over the past 15 years since the Great Financial Crisis - oftentimes the PE component was not 100% and the capital raises were far less than $400 Million, money moves quickly from the hasty to the patient. The biggest hurdle for investors is maintaining mental control through losses, and investing in the right places at the right time
Purchasing stock in companies that are anticipated to have steady demand even during a slump is an obvious approach to invest for a recession. These companies typically include household goods, energy, and healthcare providers. Of course, an average Joe cannot make such selections; a financial counsellor is crucial in this process.
Everyone will need a strong FA to help them through the current market turmoil. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market conditions. I made more than $350K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an Financial Consultant is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
@@emiliabucks33 That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this advisor?
Dawn Maureen Humphrey is the Consultant that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over 3 decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info
It was easy locating your coach's webpage by looking up her name online. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call to use her services. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I have a feeling this will blow up somewhere by September this year, just like in 2008s
I've been thinking late July, but I'm more pessimistic than most 😆
3rd qtr I think
Sep or Oct
Middle of September is the next liquidity squeeze, expect things to break then
I call November
Market structure is radically different from the 1970s - back then, there were no algos, no high frequency trading, no dark pools, and basic computer-based trading was in its infancy. The minimum tick size for a quote was 1/8 dollar, and the roundtrip commission to execute a trade was like $20, which inflation adjusted today would be equivalent to $112 - and this required you to call up your broker on the phone for execution, which could take hours or even days.
2008 is much closer to our current structure, and as you can see today, even with breadth deteriorating, just 5-6 stocks can hold up the SP500, (temporarily) defying all fundamental/macro headwinds. This is clearly a result of the still-too-much excess liquidity sloshing around in the system as the result of the last QE.
I always found it funny thru the 90's how even then the biggest names would hold up even the Dow as well as SP and NASDAQ.
And when AOL and Yahoo and several other companies part of the Dow went poop... they just swap that out for a the next winner chicken dinners.
To make it look like the stoncks only take a little dip and over long term go up... not really the indices just pick winners. And dump losers. A big skew on what actual stocks do... most dwindle and eventually fall apart or get bought out forcing the holder to dump their shares... or it may get acquired by another ticker and dwindle over time.
The indices, and in the case of the DOW are a distortion, the gimmick of stock gurus everywhere that throw money on a dartboard of stocks, and pick out their few winners, showing that to everyone saying look aren't a I a genius at stoncks, buy my brilliant stonck alert program! Come one come all! To my brilliant pretty penny!
Despite the fact over their dartboard they generally lost big, with a few pretty pennies.
Hence their subscription is their gimmickry that makes them money, not their trading... their stock salami fortune cookie scam.
And ta'da!
That's what makes them money. Otherwise if trading did make them so much money they'd be hiding in a secret location trading making themselves stupid rich.
Agreed! There's still 2 trillion sitting in Reverse Repo every night. High interest rates should decrease liquidity, but there's just so much money out there still waiting for a place to find returns
I think to add to what you are saying. There are many "Tools" in the hands of Government to mitigate negative markets with cash infusions, from bailouts to loans/Grants. Lots of fail safes make it a lot harder to knock down the market these days. So the Longer time trend for the 2008 recession seems the most likely trend to use. FYI, I am half way through the book Dark Pools which talks about what you mentioned. Very interesting stuff to hear how the market started and changed over time.
@@42medwardsFed is to create a crash to freeze inflation. It will take time.
@@pprb123 money is chasing money, but not in real world.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market.
@susannicky BS fake conversation.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Not at all, having monitored edge my portfolio performance which has made a jaw dropping $483k from just the past two quarters alone, I have learned why experienced traders make enormous returns from the seemingly unknown market. I must say it's the boldest decision I've taken since recently.
credits to Margaret Johnson Arndt one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
Thank you for your videos. Yours is one of three channels that I follow, which I find to be high-yield and truly worth my time. I appreciate the succinct, scholarly, and non-sensational format of your presentations. Keep it up.
What other channels are you following?
It seems like, in broad strokes, the rate hike cycle of the mid-2000s is direct cause of the inversion, and an indirect cause of the recession. That rate hike cycle lead to ARM adjustments in a vulnerable market which lead to defaults which led to an unwinding of derivatives, which led to a credit crunch which led to a recession. Essentially, a curve inversion was a leading indicator of an impending credit crunch; a forced-refinance at untenable rates.
This time, the rate hike cycle also caused the inversion, but unlike 2006, almost everyone has an ultra-low fixed rate, and MBS derivatives aren't insane. So we need to identify which market is most vulnerable to the "forced-refinance." Perhaps regional banks? Perhaps corporations that leveraged up on low-cost debt? But with long-duration debt, that means a long lead time before the crunch. And with $1 Trillion in excess savings still out there, there's a lot of buying power left to sustain earnings and growth, pyric as they may be.
Bottom line, where's the credit-sensitive market that's going to be upended by new, higher rates? Right? And is there any funny business (like CDOs of CDOs) that Main Street doesn't yet know about?
CMBS
Private equity. Commercial real estate.
It was already defaulting in mid 2000 before any rate hike.
The market was running out of suckers and bag holders for all that leveraged up bad debt.
Same situation unfolding soon now.
my good man, these videos are very good and very informative. thank you so much for what you're doing!
It would have been nice if you had explained why the spread is important and why it has been a good indicator in the past.
Another indicator that has had a perfect record historically is the Cape Schiller ratio. And that has also reached recession predicting numbers recently.
“The 2023 AI Tech Bubble”
Ride the wave and then abandon ship
This is such a well explained video!
Can you instead look at the length of time between the point the inversion stops i.e. zero spread at the point of turning positive again, and the start of the subsequent recession? Just looking at that chart it seems that gap is much smaller and potentially less variable. Would be interesting to see that comparison
Came over from the david lin report - great stuff, subbed.
Production value is always great for these videos
Thanks for including a difficulty of timing the market with the inverted yield curve. Instead of timing the top, you could always start researching recessionary stocks, so you know where to put your money when you DCA or reallocate your portfolio. The inverted yield curve is only one of many tools you can use for anticipating the market.
Wouldn’t mind a video discussing and selecting recessionary stocks, as this is the first recession for *many* investors.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Your videos are great. Keep up the good work👍🏼
So, a stunning number of people today are still living their lifestyle while buying groceries on credit at high interest rates.
Many have seen that as a facet of this age that was not present before, and that's why the stock market just keeps going.
Normally, people would be pulling back, earnings would lessen, jobs would drop, and the market would drop.
But if people just keep borrowing, I'm not sure past indicators of when the recession hits will prove a valid prediction.
Also, really depends on what the government does leading into an election to help folks that did that.
This is probably the best explanation on the yield curve and recession correlation.
I *think* looking at 50% of all yields inverted is even more accurate than the 3 month 10y. Both are great but 50% of all yields I think is one to also have an eye on.
The video is great, but I wish you touched upon the fundamentals of why the curve inversion predicts the recession -- what are the mechanics (What is the psychology) of market participants more heavily leaning on short term treasuries vs long term treasuries that make this a reliable indicator?
points to 2024 being the year for the most asset price drops and recession if similar to 2008, the main factors are the Fed's adjusting interest rates and unemployment (plus any federal government interventions)
I mean technically speaking, if you look at the true inflation rate , which is much higher than stated GDP , we have been in a perpetual recession since the early 90s. This is fundamental economics.
Bail outs has caused a lot of problems. Company’s either survive or fail. And major companies have not been allowed to fail for some reason.
@@mactruth648
Cronies of the central banks have profited greatly from all the bailouts handed to them at the public's expense.
Free market my a..
IMO the current inversion is the market betting the Fed will get inflation under control within the next decade more than a recession signal. If labor is going to kick off the recession I don't think it will happen- demographics have structurally tightened labor to the point I think we're in a new paradigm.
Thank you! Excellent work. My plan is to begin scaling in SPY shorts with 6-month expiration dates as soon as the yield curve begins to steepen for 2 months straight.
According to your inversion-recession chart, most recessions didn’t start until AFTER the inversion reversed. This may suggest we have a ways to go before a recession gets into full swing.
Also, I wonder about the difficulty of comparing the present with past situations. We may already be in a recession but won’t have the data to confirm it until later.
It would be interesting to see where U.S. elections fall in these charts and if they delay the negative outcomes.
My thoughts exactly! Buying votes is a real thing, and bailing out folks who've over-borrowed is a great way to do it!
Everyone is saying third-quarter this year the recession will start. That may be true. But you won’t start to feel it, or notice it until 3 to 6 months after it starts because of lagging indicators. So a recession will not be officially called until mid 24 or late 24.
Notes; if you see the unemployment rate go up half a percent within a quarter there is trouble. If you start to hear family or friends, get reduced hours or work is slow there is trouble. If you don’t see, or hear these things, you literally have nothing to worry about, but be prepared.
This was your best video yet - keep up the good work!
I'm not sure this signal means anything anymore. The Fed balance sheet is gargantuan and without paying IOER short term rates today would be very close to 0%. The FOMC can literally make this signal anything they want overnight with these artificial means. In all cases before the balance sheet drove the market to adjust rates. Today, rates are entirely determined by central government policy. Look at Japan for example - 10 year rates are pegged just as today short rates are pegged in the USA. The signal is broken.
Great content, great delivery, great graphics. Kudos !!!!!!
Very well laid out video! With this AI boom its getting difficult to stay focused on the looming recession. Looks like it could go on for awhile before getting ugly out there! All the best to everyone reading!!! Stay safe
We're at 15 months now and STILL NO recession after the inversion... I'm starting to lose my patience.
So based on this information, when should we expect to see a recession hit the market?
Pls make a updated video of this video
at 3:27 why is there such a big gap b/w 14 month average ( -0.04%) and 15 month average (-.14%)? I wouldnt cherry pick month 15.
The 10Y3M is a good predictor of recessions, but the timing issue makes it very hard to come up with a strategy that wouldve been profitable in the past without cherry picking.
Thank you Eric!
Great content, exactly what I was wondering at the moment - thanks!
For someone looking to short the market, what are my best options?
You're God's gift, sir. Thank you for educating me!
Just dropping a comment for when this video becomes an educational example of what happened in this new recession. 😅
Thanks for the reminder, looks like we're about to enter some uncertain times
so, tl;dr is "it's a very good indicator, but there is too much randomness to predict anything" ?
What technique do you use? I'm a beginner who is still learning about trading in the nfc community.
Great work Eric.
There is a saying that economic data is not essential to investing with a long term scope on a business you have targeted based on fundamental.
Thanks for all your good work!
Nice analysis. Many thanks👍
Seems like you missed all your predictions
Looking at the s&p500, I wonder if expectation has already been priced in and/or if a fed yield curve intervention is already priced in.
The problem with “averages” is we didn’t have an “average” stimulus package in response to covid. This can take a while.
An even more solid indicator is Real Gross Domestic Income. When it goes negative, we have a recession on our hands 100% of the time.
So whats the best financial play? Inverse Housing REIT ETFs? Short the SP500? Short boomed stocks like NVDA?
NVDA
Probably buy Disney while it is down
Excellent video, sir! Thanks!
excellent, subbed.
Amazing work, once again. Probably don't need the subtle zoom-out on the charts. Thanks Eric.
good info, thanks
Yeah i wish bro , ive shorted spy a month now only to see AI headlines left and right dragging investors in, just 10 companies are literally driving the market right now ...
You shorted spy? The chances that will have a positive outcome are low
Read the Boglehead's Guide to Investing
@@irascib1e is it a bad practice when a recession is lurking ?
@@Mark-nm9sm Yes
you are better shorting weak stocks in bad sectors than to short the whole market brother
great work!
Why?! Merely states observations / correlations but never explains 'why' the indicator is predictive...
We have deflationary factors in the market this time like AI and crypto currency
So based on the probabilities of these leading indicators and the possible timeframes the crash will likely happen for this recession cycle, wouldnt it be smarter to begin moving money from my index funds that will most certainly be net negative over the next couple of years and instead invest more so into HYSA/money markets and commodities like gold?
Yes
Awesome info, I was just observing this recently and its good somebody was confirming the info
I need to pinpoint when to load up on TLT...
We both know that recession will come just a matter of time. However when will it actually happen is still a question.
It will fall somewhere in between 3500 and 2500. Take SPX and divide by M2 and it gives you support around there. But it has already fallen to 3500 so the worse in terms of performance could be over.
Real estate is good though?
But its different this time right?!?!
I fucking love this channel!
Nearterm forward spread even better
This answers the 'how' not the 'why'
This is fine 😢
You are wrong.
The economy has been in a recession since 2008 and possibly since 2001.
What's been going on since then is lots of malinvestment leveraged built upon that malinvestment.
Also tons of bailouts and bonuses to banksters for generating all that malinvestment.
The graph should be showing that grey area expanded all the way from at least 2008 to the present as one large gray block.
Do the same with 10Y and 2M if you're honest.
Didn't happen
Was just thinking about this. I ignore the macroeconomics as much as possible. Did the United States avoid recession this year? There was a lot of news about incoming recession earlier this year so I am confused
@@tuomasvaltawe are waiting on the private real estate and cars market to implode
@@dannyrobles6947 guess americans are waiting for that but I should be more interested in the fact that the implosion is already priced in the stock market. The market bottomed like a year ago
Dow 36,000 by September - December 2023.
Probably winter 2024 when nobody will actually expect it
The 2019 yield curve inversion should be looked at as if it was a false positive. The economy was likely to improve not get worse had the pandemic not occurred.
The pandemic was priced in
False, a recession was already going to occur early 2020...At best, covid was seen as a threat to turn the recession into a depression...at worst, it was a conspiracy to save big asset holders...
Unemployment Rate :
20 May 23
🇺🇲
3.3
we need a recession and a period followed by relaxed regulations and economic policy, to fix this sh1t
the economist who invented the inverted yield curve model says it's probably wrong this year
In other words, we can predict the future....kind of.
Remember experts are always right, except when they're not.
Anything that decreases credit creation will have ill effects on the economy
Only 40000 views. What a shame.
Recession has been cancelled. It will go to All Time High by end of 2023.
Haven’t been able to reach my toes while trenching for years… with this I traced it within 30 seconds.. magic…!!
Nope. Been hearing same theory for at least ten years
Did this age well? ;)
2024 nov
I hope a recession happens.
I need a recession to occur.
However, so many rules, trends, and predictable outcomes have been broken during and after covid ... that it wouldn't surprise me that this will also be yet another to fail to occur. We might just move along just fine and inflation settles down but nothing will remotely get back to normal.
I don't know about you two first claims but I 100% agree with the main one that covid and how governments and consumers reacted around the world screwed up a lot of 'common sense' in classic economics. In our lifetime, we experienced what happens when unemployment went to 15-20%, and what that meant was that a majority of people were still working and even encouraged to spend. Banks also came to the rescue of those hit hard by refinancing properties so a real recession was avoided.
still valid ..;)?
Looks awesome, cant wait until we all get poorer and continue to not do anything about it.
2024 is going to be painful.
Michael Burry- 6 months +\- Book it Dano
unsubscribed from all bears. Bull market is 100% here
Nope
Virtually zero false signals? Then how do you explain all the valleys that dont coincide with recessions. This whole channel is clickbait.
This looks planned. Js