This Signal Flashed "Recession" For 22 Months Straight
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- čas přidán 28. 08. 2024
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In this video, we look into sequential signals of Business Cycle Recessions.
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DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.
I really appreciate that you only create materials when you have something interesting to say.
Alternative title: Evidence the Economy Has Been Heavily Manipulated for 22 Months Straight
You mean the numbers have been heavily manipulated.
Did you think they'd announce MMT program?
@@tuckerbugeater MMT sounds like commie gobbledigook. Blaming the government for not distributing wealth effectively is basically saying we're not commie enough. So no, they'll not admit they're doing MMT until after they've been doing for a decade.
Almost like the field of economics studies what happened in the past to more effectively manage the economy in the future because more growth is good for all.
@@tHebUm18 ah yes more inflationary growth is certainly good for all right?
June is 11 months from the last rate hike, buckle up.
You can hope... Not sure you noticed that there were cases when this signal was 2 years early...
@@csakzozo But then consider that we've been at all-time low consumer personal savings rates, all-time high consumer high-interest debt, skyrocketing housing inventory above 2019 levels in dozens of states, highest amount of homes with multiple price reductions since 2009, lowest demand for a mortgage since the early 1990s, and hundreds of corporations laying of thousands of salaried workers a month. Most importantly, median home price at over 6.5x the median income for over a year. That's almost 50% worse than peak 2007 bubble. Most unsustainable economy in all of world history and a MUCH larger bubble than 2007. There's not a single piece of math that isn't a lot worse than 2007. Housing and stock values will be 50-60% lower in about a year to 2 years.
@@enthused7591 You’re kidding yourself if you think the overlords will allow their stock value to drop like that. The government will only continue to pump up asset values and price out anyone else from scooping up any stock for a cheaper price.
@@enthused7591 well said
There's been no bear market/credit unwind in 15 years now...and counting. I think we're at the point now where we really need to wonder if Janet, Jerome and Joe have mastered the "art" of "stimulative" monetary debasement to the point of fully negating the business cycle that we once knew. I think we will know within the next 12 months if they cracked this code or not. However, Trump will probably pass another tax cut which could extend the game once again, so who the heck knows.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
True. I first came across investing in the market in 2019. Already stashed about $480k in savings then, and the free money from the Government was pouring in, increasing inflation rate. I just got an advisor and kept the money there, just because I didn't want to keep the value of the money depreciating in the bank. Tbh, it's the best investment decision I've made since then.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 13 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Love these studies and videos. You do great work and I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge with us.
We love to hear that! You can find our overall framework video breakdowns on our website.
Your animations are INSANE. Thank you for your hard work.
I'm definitely worried. My strategy has been to shift a significant portion of my portfolio into safer assets like bonds and gold. The global economy is so volatile right now, it's hard to predict what will happen next.
The continuous recession signal is a clear indicator of economic instability. I've been diversifying my investments more aggressively, including international stocks and commodities. It's essential to spread risk during uncertain times.
Same here. The global economic landscape is incredibly shaky, with issues like inflation, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions all playing a role. I've been thinking about seeking professional advice to better navigate these turbulent times.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could help to earn a high in these challenging conditions.
I tried a few in the past years, but I've been with Eric Paul Elmer for the last five years or so, and his returns have been pretty much amazing.
I completely agree. It's crucial to be proactive with our investments. On that note, I recently started working with this advisor to reassess my portfolio
by far one of the best videos on this topic. super quality!
Rising business cycle risk combined with extremely low equity risk premium (CAPE yield spreads) = very dangerous combination. Your system and patience will pay off handsomely. Really love your work.
This is a top tier video! These things fly way over my head but you make it easy to understand and digest. Kudos for that!
Glad it was helpful!
This channel has the best content and graphics. It's also presented with such a high quality compared to the rest. You can tell there was a lot of thought and effort to present something excellent. It's difficult to condense so much information that is also understandable by the end. Watching EPB is like watching the star student or star athlete blow all the other classmates/competition away. It's one of my favorites and I look forward to it when there's a new video.
You should have millions of subs. This info is awesome
Interesting. I created a machine learning model using various economic indicators to predict when a recession will start and for the last 2 years it has been saying around August 2024. It will be interesting to see what happens. Most predict there won’t be one this year but that’s usually when they happen.
What are you using for predictive factors?
(BTW you’re probably right)
lol
@@colonelgraff9198 About 40 different ones including index of global real economic activity, unemployment, sahm rule, interest rates, yield curves, average weekly hours worked, ppi, labor force participation, m2, housing starts, ism new orders, continued claims, output gap, bank willingness to loan, job increases, etc.
Because you used machine learning and similar to AI, that means it will likely be wrong and completely opposite to what's predicted
No you didn't lmao. People just go on the internet and make shit up.
I appreciate making an effort to point out that precisely timing the market is impossible compared to prior videos seemingly recommending people try to time the market when talking potential market indicators. Could go down a month from now, a year from now, or not at all and that's why time in the market is ideal for most investors.
Thanks for the video. It was very informative and educational for me. I look forward to see more videos from you like this one which was made based on data and economical science instead of other youtubers style who look for more follower. Thanks again.
So glad you liked it. Check out our framework videos on our website for more context on the EPB Business Cycle process.
Love your videos!!!
Thanks!
I really like your videos and deep analysis.....How about a study on the importance of the credit cycle only ?
Thanks Eric , love your work!
So time is no reason to think a recession isn't coming, it's the signals given by the business cycld. Does this mean for us young, radical optimists, we can still hope for the signals #1 & #2 to turn off without a recession occurring, regardless of how historically likely such a scenario would be? I'm just looking for hope.
This is great insight with very good explanations. Amazing work my man. Keep it up! 👍🏽👍🏽
Glad you liked it!
Fantastic video, as usual. Love the content and your business cycle framework.
Much appreciated!
Great video- as usual, Eric! As an aside- I used to joke, everything I needed to know about investing, I learned from Rodney Dangerfield’s character in Caddy Shack. 😬
would love if you did a video on how warren buffet came to his methodology of investing mentioned in this video. keep up the great work, i’ve been watching pretty much every video of the last 2 months
Warren Buffett is good at controlling his emotions while most if not 90% of humans aren’t good at that
Is it a flash if it's for 22 months?
interesting research, I have subscribed now
Come on Eric... who are you fooling here with this well researched frameworks and flashy informative videos... We all know Bidenomics and NVDA are going to save US 😉😆
According to past videos data - the recession was supposed to start last summer - so what happened?
Business cycle is pricing in Ai replacing biggest item on their expense report.
Great stuff. You're a rare rational person.
Great data visualization. Perhaps for this video it would have been nice to add year dates or non annotated vertical lines for each year between annotated years for comparison of each indicator in the data, first half of the vid.
You keep saying there will be a recession but what will it actually look like? Mass layoffs? Why? Does any of this analysis work anymore? The yield curve doesn’t seem to work anymore. Where’s the recession?
If you hear about your friends and family members getting laid off from high profile jobs that’s a recession.
If you see for sale signs on cars, and in retail windows with signs that they said discounts. Red signs everywhere.
An excellent video - thank you.
So... no warning for Spring 2000? Jan to March 2000 was the time to bail, seems the models had no warning to offer? Can't just gloss over a 45% drop
There will be no housing crash. The only crash will people’s insanity, as the world becomes more and more unaffordable.
Agree on housing
Agreed, especially in desirable cities such as miami. Say all you want about a crash and currency valuation. Still does not change the fact that the most desirable places in the world to live in will hold their real estate values. Coupled with constantly increasing population then housing will always keep value as long as the housing in said area is not overrun by gangs or all jobs leave the area.
@@nikopoulos5241 but but but but Nick Gerli says the whole market is going to BURN!!! 🤡
Population is collapsing not growing
A world that becomes more unaffordable (presumably you mean via inflation), is BEARISH for both stocks and real estate in the short/medium term because incomes don't keep pace and that historically anyway, forms a multi-year air pocket (one which we are currently experiencing... hence the skyrocketing but unsustainable credit usage). It's also bearish for "nice" vehicles (but not "all" vehicles, because people will still need to move around). So if they plan on printing to get out of this mess, that's great but it won't save assets in the short/medium term. Eventually, yes, inflation makes all prices line up with reality. 1995 and 2010 are two good examples of everything getting caught up.
The UAE no longer accepts Federal Reserve Debt Notes as settlement for oil sales.
Saudi Arabia now uses mBridge to settle oil sales outside the USD Fed Reserve Debt Note, but still accepts debt notes from The Fed.
De-Dollarization is the main difference going into and out of this next recession------some things change, some stay the same.
Global Reserve Currency Status is something the US is losing month by month-----we're in a different world going forward.
If stock market timers are not your audience, who is? Business owners? Employees looking to protect their incomes? Timing the market was the only reason I was watching this. Otherwise what am I supposed to do, save up money for the unemployment in the coming recession?
very helpful video, thx.
How would you know that, in advance?
@@csakzozo its always good to know the potential risks that exists based on historical evidence, regardless if they play out or not.
Thats amazing as my calculations put the next market bottom bottom march 2026 based on eclipses.
Thanks! Awesome vid
Glad you liked it!
"Buffet seemingly has no problem with waiting periods, because he's crafted a unique strategy that benefits from his patience and his ability to capture opportunities better than any investors to date".....except Nancy Pelosi
Great video
A broken clock is right twice a day.
And correctly working clocks are always right, except when they are wrong😂
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Top notch vid
Everyone poo poos market timing saying it's impossible. Yet Buffett thrives on market timing and most of the time does the right thing. He did not do very well during the 2020 COVID meltdown. He had a bunch of airlines and sold them at the bottom to stop the pain and could not focus on using his cash hoard to buy the dip like he usually does, so he missed out of the fast moving recovery.
Its 2 months since this video and it looks like the chance of a recession has increased dramatically.
Thanks
didnt the government change the way they measure recession or something along the line?
this time is different. Dario is right. I think this framework does not work anymore. Mortgages are fixed for too long, manuf. is a small part of employment (robots, offshoring) and fiscal stimis are a new reality.
Hey @EPBResearch, perhaps you can help me get a good understanding of a goal the fed reserve has- the 2% inflationary goal. I've been wondering how they got to that number as a goal, as well as what that 2% is in reference towards. If there's going to he inflation, it's measured to a previous reference year- so is the 2% in reference to the previous year? If so, wouldn't yearly reference changes make the 2% goal compounded?
The actions of the fed reserve suggest they're not wanting to really quash inflation but then again, fed reserve tools only work on the demand side of the supply/demand equation. To increase supply would require spending- and congress has the power of the purse. The US economy seems to be slipping into stagflation, so another question I'd ask is this- what policies can both the Fed reserve AND executive branch do to navigate thru stagflation with little blowback?
I watched somebody back in the day. The literally said the feds just like that number because one guy liked it. No supporting information defending it. A lot of people like 1-2%
Listen to Gary’s Economics. Everything will make sense.
The goal is wealth extraction from the middle class through sharp asset price inflation coupled with (much) slower wage inflation.
they probably don’t want to stop inflation. I think they are trying to set a new normal of high interest rates and get people to start saving. We’ve had cheap money (low interest rates) for so long people don’t know how to act (save money) including people in the government. How the fed offsets downturns in the market is by lowering interest rates but if they are too low they can’t do much of anything.
Higher interest rates allow banks to offer higher savings rates pre2020 you would be lucky to find a CD offering 3% while the rate of inflation was hovering around 2% now CDs are being offered at 5% not bad even if inflation is at 3.5%
@@demidvfedorov I wouldn’t say that is “the goal”. But yes it is a neglected consequence of central bank policy for which nobody is willing to take responsibility.
They ahould rate hike atleast 2-3% more
easy to predict when your looking back at history
so??? how do we find these 3 indicators ?? waste of time
I publish these indicators to clients on a monthly basis. Checkout our website for more info.
Is this video arguing that significant parts of 2023 was not in a recession?
Guys, the recession occurred in 2022. That's why recessionary signals flashed. It already happened. You missed it
Lol
Hahaha. Yea the big bad recession happened for only 3 months and then we recovered. Get real buddy. This time is different and it’s because the government printed trillions of dollars but if u think the recession already happened, I’ve got a bridge to sell to you
Trust me bro😂
I hate how coy Buffet is about not using business cycles to drive investment decisions. I think that really its just how valuations get most overdone near the end of business cycles as much of the growth of the previous cycle is priced into the stock near the end. But at a crash coinciding with an ending business cycle the stocks are pricing in terrible future earnings which makes them quite cheap and high yielding.
Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy is just a way of saying this in a coy fashion.
Ant yet, it looks like AS LONG AS YOU PRINT MONEY THERE IS NO RECESSION !
Me No good English. So when does recession come? Summary?
my guess is some day in the future
Say signal one more time
Trust me bro, the recession is coming, bro trust me
And it will flash for another 37 straight months...
Nah
Warren Buffett's BRK has underperformed an investment in an S&P500 ETF over the past 20 years.
Taylor Sharon Gonzalez Brenda Young Ronald
My guess is we are already in recession. Hadn’t it for NVDIA stimulating the economy with the AI craze, most tech stocks would have fallen badly
growth all on borrowed money. smoke and mirrors market returns.
Tip: increase video speed 1.5x
The "rhythm" of capitalism is that capitalists must destroy capital periodically (create artificial scarcity) to protect profits. This is not necessary in socialism.
I don’t care. Up only. This time is different because Biden is in power
CONGRATS once AGAIN to all those who play the ZERO risk free money just buy the SPX dips and collect the cash $$$ markets CRUSHING shorts one permabear youtuber at a time $$$ I love ZERO risk free money $$$ Kachingo$$$
Recession imminent for 20 years now. Any minute now.
Playback speed 1.25x
Again????????
Watch 7:45
Too linearly narrow, based on 'historical norms' that are continually abused.
You have been predicting a recession for years, when is it coming?
Martin Donald White Deborah Thompson Nancy
22 months ..😂. Yeah, stick with it
lol. Another QUAD four!🤢
Just buy Bitcoin
Sounds like it has been wrong for 22months
Did you watch the video?
@@zyxwfish@zyxwfish Unfortunately, not. The comment was made less than 2 minutes after the video was posted, and it's a 12-minute video. Hopefully, it was informative for those who watched.
I’m not sure he could have made a comment that was so spot on idiotic considering the purpose and content of the video.
@@EPBResearch its alright. Keep doing what you think is right. "Recession" will become a trigger word soon enough.
Go put all your money in bitcoin or gamestop or something you clown
Useless
Yes I watched the entire video lmao. Teaching people to use Business Cycle Recession indicators and bringing up Warren Buffett? This isnt 2007 anymore.
I don't know what's going to happen anymore than anyone else, but very famous last words are always: "This time is different"
What is it then? Give me a break
Which are you apart of? The upper or lower 50% of the average 100 IQ scoring individuals?
Who's voting for Joe Biden?
There will be no housing crash. The only crash will people’s insanity, as the world becomes more and more unaffordable.
There will be no housing crash. The only crash will people’s insanity, as the world becomes more and more unaffordable.