Sergei Guriev on the political economy of Putin’s war in Ukraine: Global Economy Lecture 2023

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  • čas přidán 9. 07. 2024
  • Russian economist Sergei Guriev on the economic impact of Putin's war against Ukraine and its consequences for the world.
    Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/gurie...
    A summary of Sergei Guriev's lecture is available here: wiiw.ac.at/n-587.html
    #russiaukrainewar #russia #ukraine #ukrainewar #economics
    Video edited by Iulia Anamaria Barta
    About wiiw:
    The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) is Vienna-based policy think tank with a focus on Central, East, and Southeast Europe. We conduct research on international economics, deliver macroeconomic forecasts, comment the ongoing events, collect statistical data, and organize events to discuss policy-related questions.
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Komentáře • 431

  • @siegfried182005
    @siegfried182005 Před rokem +15

    It is nice, because you can see the whole projection screen:)

    • @Sir_Godz
      @Sir_Godz Před rokem +3

      its not like data is essential to this topic

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem +10

      Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @pagarb
    @pagarb Před rokem +27

    It would've been better if the charts could have been seen when he was talking about them..

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @rossmurray6849
    @rossmurray6849 Před rokem +38

    At 1:24:40, Mr Guriev said, "In May, I wrote an op-ed for The Economist..." The Economist just happens to be the only news source I trust enough to read regularly. In its latest edition, 3rd February, it had a lengthy piece giving reasons to believe the price caps on Russian energy exports were not producing the desired outcome. That's quite different to what Mr Guriev said in his presentation. I don't know what to think now.

    • @daniell.staetsky3110
      @daniell.staetsky3110 Před rokem +1

      I will tell you something. All manner of dissidents and Putin haters talk at us non stop. They may well be stellar in their line of business. And their grievances may be justified. But - because of how affected and bitter they are- they cannot offer analysis. Full stop . End of story. Right the last page.

    • @charlytaylor1748
      @charlytaylor1748 Před rokem

      This guy went to Luhansk - you may find it interesting czcams.com/video/B0i0zbuCIIM/video.html&ab_channel=BritannicaPolitica

    • @VangelVe
      @VangelVe Před rokem +9

      Correct. The evidence shows that the price caps and sanctions did not do what the politicians expected.

    • @voya8480
      @voya8480 Před rokem

      Read todaysnews. Putin cut export of oil.

    • @Driver-ur9mf
      @Driver-ur9mf Před rokem

      Oh dear, feel like you have been misled, or lied to? Tsk tsk, is Putin not playing well with the NWO? As long as you listen to those who spin the situation as an invasion, rather than listen to how it was explained, a liberation of his people, You chose your side. Choices have consequences.

  • @valentinann7823
    @valentinann7823 Před rokem +13

    Excellent questions, informative answers. Thanks for posting this presentation and making it available for broad audience!

  • @christiangeiselmann
    @christiangeiselmann Před rokem +11

    Thanks for video-taping the lecture. But you should learn to display the slides when the lecturer refers to them.

  • @Somebody_else_u_know
    @Somebody_else_u_know Před 2 měsíci

    Thank you for the information!🤝

  • @igawiga4452
    @igawiga4452 Před rokem +3

    As always, an excellent speech from Dr Guriev
    I used to attend his talks at the LSE events , he is extremely knowledgeable researcher and his curriculum speaks for itself

  • @georgechirayus4865
    @georgechirayus4865 Před rokem +4

    Very interesting talk. Such a shame that the wide shot doesn’t include the full presentation screen the speaker refers to. Worth noting for the future.

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem +1

      Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @rokiev8397
    @rokiev8397 Před 6 měsíci

    Guriev is rock star in question of sanctions

  • @wingedpearloyster
    @wingedpearloyster Před rokem +14

    This was brilliant. We need to have this kind of information in order to get a better grasp of what's happening. Thanks very much!

    • @usernwn7qe
      @usernwn7qe Před rokem +2

      Absolutely brilliant and unbiased, just badmouth every political opponent of the west and skip all other western friendly tyrants. That´ll guarantee you a career in our education system for sure.

    • @ennediend2865
      @ennediend2865 Před rokem

      Fully agreed 👍

  • @yossarianmnichols9641
    @yossarianmnichols9641 Před rokem +5

    I am impressed by his speed of lecture in a language that is not his native language. He doesn't seem to need notes very much.

  • @ibikic
    @ibikic Před rokem +10

    Did they answer why goverment was removed in 2014th in Ucraine, and why is Minsk agreement rejected to respect? Also why does US occupy Siria oil teritorry?

    • @peternewman7940
      @peternewman7940 Před rokem +2

      You raise some good points!
      The removal of a democratically elected government in Kyiv is rarely addressed in Western news media. I remember the murder of democratically elected Allende in Chile. Was that the CIA too? Remember how the Americans supported the Pinochet dictatorship? And Suharto's genocide in Indonesia. Half a million of his political opposition murdered - with American assistance and encouragement.
      Syria is a quagmire of competing interests. They have had a particularly rough ride.
      And Minsk? We in the West are simply never told why the agreements failed.

  • @rudyschenker
    @rudyschenker Před rokem +3

    Introductions are just long enough to take a short nap.

  • @aclvaz
    @aclvaz Před rokem +45

    I just love how economists explain everything after the fact. lots of assumptions and the major one is thinking that Putin is only just looking at his power and public support readings. what if is looking at Russia's future, and not only him but a big part of the leading team that supports him?

    • @pleasantturtle2799
      @pleasantturtle2799 Před rokem +5

      Game theorists can’t calculate such variables so they act like such things don’t exist.

    • @stevenmaritz2681
      @stevenmaritz2681 Před rokem +1

      He's a political scientist.

    • @charlytaylor1748
      @charlytaylor1748 Před rokem +9

      "if you laid all the economists in the world end to end they still wouldn't reach a conclusion"

    • @carlabroderick5508
      @carlabroderick5508 Před rokem

      Russia’s future is no longer in the equation because the loss of this war, even the revelation of Russia’s weakness due to the effect of corruption on its military, has damaged Russia’s future indefinitely.

    • @aclvaz
      @aclvaz Před rokem

      @@carlabroderick5508 it has revealed more the unpreparedness of NATO for real combat and the inadequacy of the private military sector to provide the necessary weapons and at reasonable costs. it has also shown other countries that they cannot trust on the USD for currency and wealth reserves

  • @Claudia-yd3dd
    @Claudia-yd3dd Před rokem +2

    Please show the slides with the graphs

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @AlexdaCunha
    @AlexdaCunha Před rokem

    I would like to look at the data that supports the prediction that Russian economy will grow in 2024 with such a small fall in 2023

  • @mustno3
    @mustno3 Před rokem +1

    Thak you for this great talk.

  • @Sunny-jr8kb
    @Sunny-jr8kb Před rokem +4

    Thank you sir for such a wonderful knowledge and that to free of cost.

  • @antonioflores4936
    @antonioflores4936 Před rokem +42

    Surprisingly this economic and political picture looks like a mirror image of USA’s problems and strategy for coping with their economic problem

  • @eumefmeauh6193
    @eumefmeauh6193 Před 5 měsíci

    Like!

  • @paulbadics3500
    @paulbadics3500 Před rokem +3

    Russia doesnt need chinese military support.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem

      Well... It needs Iranian support, north corea support

  • @PoisonelleMisty4311
    @PoisonelleMisty4311 Před rokem

    “After all, a woman who doesn't love cats is never going to be make a man happy.”
    ― Orhan Pamuk, The Museum of Innocence

  • @AndyT-np8mm
    @AndyT-np8mm Před rokem

    And what if decoupling is the goal?

  • @AtlasGaming4k
    @AtlasGaming4k Před rokem +1

    Great job not having a camera on the screen in a lecture where the speaker constantly refers to charts… fail

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  •  Před rokem +8

    Sounds like a good lecture, but where are the graphs Guriev is referring too?

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @AlphaPOTUS
    @AlphaPOTUS Před rokem +1

    1:08:27 Please share your thoughts here by replying to this comment.

  • @richardfarmbrough2335

    Looks interesting, but it's too quiet.

  • @seadog8807
    @seadog8807 Před rokem +7

    What a fantastic speaker, a truly impressive breadth and depth of knowledge and some excellent and insightful questions posed at the end of the main presentation. Thank you for posting this 👍👍

    • @_mimika_
      @_mimika_ Před rokem +2

      Да, фантазия у него действительно выдающаяся.... Столько всего придумал😄

    • @seadog8807
      @seadog8807 Před rokem +1

      @@_mimika_ Well, based on the official Kremlin figures released yesterday, I guess it won’t take that long to see who is right, and who is wrong here…… 🙈🙈

    • @_mimika_
      @_mimika_ Před rokem +1

      @@seadog8807 я указываю на конкретные аргументы, озвученные в начале, которые на самом деле ложные. Ну а на них выстраивается повествование. Не могу слушать и верить тому, кто врёт в самом начале своего выступления. И не раз. Очень легко проверить его слова☺️

    • @seadog8807
      @seadog8807 Před rokem

      @@andrei6267 What an incisively balanced and well weighted counterpoint, I congratulate you on your excellent contribution 👏👏

    • @seadog8807
      @seadog8807 Před rokem

      @@andrei6267 It’s impossible to have a balanced counterpoint you say…. Guess we’ll just have to disagree on that. But thanks again for your contributions 👏👏

  • @Deadpoolion
    @Deadpoolion Před rokem +40

    An unsubstantiated theory about tyrants, for example, it is mentioned that they do not change the regime, but there is an example of Chiang Kai-shek and Francisco Franco who were very radical and bloody, but switched to democratic peacefully transferring power. Also an example of the same South Korea where a bunch of military dictators led to democracy.

    • @Filisteu1900
      @Filisteu1900 Před rokem

      Franco didn't change the regime in anything, neither did Chiang Kai-shek, they died.. This autoritarian regimes are build around one person, the dictator, when they die the regimes can fall soon after.. there is not a change, they ended when the dictator dies or gets overthrown.

    • @Deadpoolion
      @Deadpoolion Před rokem +6

      @@Filisteu1900 Franco voluntarily resigned from his post 2 years before his death. It was he who chose Prince Juan Carlos as his successor. The King of Spain Juan Carlos I completed the process of turning the country from an authoritarian to a democratic one (yes, after the death of Franco), but it is obvious that the regime does not change overnight and there was preparation for this. Yes, Chiang Kai-shek ruled to death, but if you look at the history in detail, his regime, which at the beginning mass-shot dissenting people on the streets, softened and drifted into democracy. In his political testament, Chiang Kai-shek urged his compatriots to continue to implement Sun Yat-sen's three people's principles: to strive for the recovery and restoration of mainland China, to revive national culture, and to vigorously defend democracy. Yes, He transferred power to his son, but he did not turn Taiwan into North Korea, where the monarchy was actually restored. Jiang Jingguo In 1987, martial law was lifted and Taiwan's politics took a democratic path. Taiwan's economy has developed successfully. Jiang Jingguo had a reputation for being an honest politician. Under his administration, "Ten big construction projects" began. Jiang Jingguo paid great attention to Taiwan's economic growth.

    • @loic-6862
      @loic-6862 Před rokem +4

      @@Deadpoolion the three principles of Sun Yat Sen were : minzu, minquan and minsheng.
      Minzu : independence for the chinese people internally and externally, by chinese he meant Han. The Qing were Manchus and he saw them as internal usurpers. External independence meant for him to be strong enough to fight imperial powers and to command as much respect as they did.
      Minquan referred to democratic rights for the people.
      Minsheng meant welfare, his explicitly stated model was democratic socialism.
      Sun Yat Sen died in 1911, 38 years before the KMT flew to Taiwan. Why would he talk about “mainland”?
      Chiang Kai Shek cared for none of those during his lifetime. This is what matters, not what he wrote on his deathbed.
      His son, great man. Nothing bad to say about him, strong legacy in general.

    • @Deadpoolion
      @Deadpoolion Před rokem +3

      @@loic-6862 At the beginning I wrote that they are bloody authoritarian dictators, I did not justify them. I argue with the argument that authoritarian tyrannies do not change without revolutionary or outside intervention. To make it easier There is also the example of SINGAPORE and Lee Kuan Yew. He is also an authoritarian ruler who ruled the country for 30 years, who peacefully democratized and transferred power.

    • @VangelVe
      @VangelVe Před rokem +4

      The problem is that he is speculating about the future in the same way as was speculated last year. Russia did fine, given that it was the most sanctioned country in history. It has an industrial base and all the materials it needs to grow. If LG pulls out of the market in Russia, plenty of Russian and Chinese companies can step in and take its market share. Some sanctions were a boost to domestic producers. And who cares what the IMF is forecasting? The 2014 coup took place because the IMF wanted Ukraine to increase gas prices by 40%, but the elected government balked at the political and economic costs and went with Putin's offer instead. The coup was funded by Western countries and has come back to hurt them badly. Germany is deindustrializing, and the middle class in Europe is getting slaughtered as costs are rising much faster than their wages when their pension and healthcare systems face insolvency. The Eurozone is looking at a Debt/GDP ratio of 80%, while the Russian ratio is under 20%. Russia holds no certificates of confiscation in the form of USTs and has diversified into bullion that will be used as the basis of intercountry trade settlement.
      This presentation looks like wishful thinking.

  • @shramshram4137
    @shramshram4137 Před rokem

    Thank you, Sergey

  • @rubainijubil6338
    @rubainijubil6338 Před rokem +12

    iMf said Russia economy is growth..

    • @usernwn7qe
      @usernwn7qe Před rokem

      Growth for RU is 0.3% but it will unavoidably drop this or next year. Still Russia did very strong outperforming all predictions (8-12% drop).

    • @longandshort6639
      @longandshort6639 Před rokem

      Only because they stupidly adopt the numbers published by the RuZZians which are all lies.

  • @jessiejb4684
    @jessiejb4684 Před rokem +9

    The west is so united that the u.s. blew up germanys energy security.

    • @patrickdonohue530
      @patrickdonohue530 Před rokem +1

      It is called “Burning the Bridge” so there is no going back.

  • @richardsimms251
    @richardsimms251 Před rokem +13

    Again, what a great discussion with a very credible academic.
    RS. Canada

  • @felipe-vibor
    @felipe-vibor Před 7 měsíci

    What i don't understand is how do dictators are so popular in their countries? Or maybe i should ask what is the definition of dictatorship because i think there are other definitions out there. A dictator is brutal and cant be popular.

  • @asgerjrgensen1414
    @asgerjrgensen1414 Před rokem +2

    Very difficult to understand when you see what they are talking about.

  • @milanciga
    @milanciga Před rokem +9

    Can you also do a video about NATO invading Serbia and anexing its midle-age province Kosovo?

  • @KarlFullerNZ
    @KarlFullerNZ Před rokem

    Very good talk on the reasons why the war started. Thank you!

    • @holger3943
      @holger3943 Před 10 měsíci

      Did he mention Vicky Nudelman, the Maidan coup, and the civil war started by the US backed Kiev regime?

  • @funnstarbloggest7124
    @funnstarbloggest7124 Před rokem +9

    When western countries bombed other countries no Europeans talked about humanity. Now lecturing others

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem

      They did. You were not born or sucking your mum breast so you don't know

    • @bsh819
      @bsh819 Před rokem

      Sure they did, lel

  • @pagarb
    @pagarb Před rokem +7

    The most brilliant and sophisticated analysis of the situation in Russia and what happen, what Putin might do, and what are the many possible outcomes and their effect on an extremely complex and nuanced situation that's laced with so much uncertainty

    • @michalrudis2578
      @michalrudis2578 Před rokem

      @@andrei6267 It was just pure western propaganda claim back then to support the help efforts for UKR. What else would you expect from anti-Putin influential russian economist, that sees the long term implications of such massive sanctions destroying his own country? I would have said the same if I wanted to encourage the western society to make the move to massively support UKR which obviously will cost tons of money and to discourage any potential Putin ally from supporting him, because he might be out of power soon. Anyway I'm quite sure that the sanctions will bite and the russian economy will eventually collapse, sooner or later. I personally feel very sorry for the ukrainians and also for ordinary russians, who cant do anything about it, unless they start starving in huge numbers and the massive anti-Putin movement starts, that can't be covered up by the propaganda anymore. Peace from Czech Republic :)

    • @MT-ok9xv
      @MT-ok9xv Před rokem +1

      @@michalrudis3519 They have 700,000 thousand troops on Ukraine for an offensive. It is already over. NKK report claims Biden offered Putin 20% of Ukraine in January. BRICS is stronger. Russias economy is growing in 2023.

  • @paoloperrucchini8207
    @paoloperrucchini8207 Před rokem +31

    too ideologic
    ... very funny the fact that he really seem to think that UE is democratic

    • @carlabroderick5508
      @carlabroderick5508 Před rokem +2

      Tell us who is more democratic. Or are you referring to the EU customs Union somehow being undemocratic?

    • @bsh819
      @bsh819 Před rokem +1

      United Emirates?

  • @antonyfrancis3247
    @antonyfrancis3247 Před rokem +2

    Why would Russia, with energy sector contributing towards 21% of GDP, follow the South Korea model of growth?

  • @Deadpoolion
    @Deadpoolion Před rokem +50

    It's funny how the loss of the Russian market for Western firms that exported goods worth 400 billion a year is presented as an achievement

    • @DrDonnyTheBookofYou
      @DrDonnyTheBookofYou Před rokem +1

      This!!!!!!!

    • @paulbadics3500
      @paulbadics3500 Před rokem

      Good point..must have impact on germany & eastern europe but media wont admit it

    • @ekesandras1481
      @ekesandras1481 Před rokem +6

      we can live withouth them, let's see if they can also live without us.

    • @username7777771
      @username7777771 Před rokem +8

      Lol, what will we do if we can't sell toilets and washing machines to Moscow????
      🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • @DarkRoomAmbience
      @DarkRoomAmbience Před rokem +5

      Wow 400 billion sounds like a lot, considering Russia's total imports were around 250 billion in total before the war. Russia is a tiny market for exporters, they are a poor nation, with a small economy.

  • @richardsimms251
    @richardsimms251 Před rokem +7

    Wonderful quality talk in keeping with other scholars not living in Russia, or employed by Russian institutions or universities.
    Excellent

    • @johngame2119
      @johngame2119 Před rokem

      There would be nothing but propaganda from scholars based in Russia or Russian institutions.
      Unless of course they fancied an impromptu flight out of a window or poisoning.

  • @colettescobie1878
    @colettescobie1878 Před rokem +2

    Grocery inflation in Ireland 16.4% today as opposed to 2% 12 months ago.
    Electric prices gone up by 100%

    • @alexandertumarkin5343
      @alexandertumarkin5343 Před rokem

      The same thing, even worse. With the basic difference: besides the economic struggles, our people are being killed by russian occupants.

  • @user-ii1bw4rk4z
    @user-ii1bw4rk4z Před rokem +29

    Speaking about Putin in this tone, he wants to rise, but in fact politics is a much more complex thing than economics and he is simply unable to comprehend the scale of this personality. Time will tell everything.

    • @ekesandras1481
      @ekesandras1481 Před rokem +5

      actually politics is much more simple than economics.

  • @Joelmonterrey
    @Joelmonterrey Před rokem +5

    This is excellent. Very clear, comprehensive.

  • @puckluck2357
    @puckluck2357 Před rokem

    Great lecture, I love the concept of polling the popularity within a repressive regime. Brilliant

  • @yossarianmnichols9641
    @yossarianmnichols9641 Před rokem +5

    No way will Russia pay reparations.

    • @nikolazuzic
      @nikolazuzic Před rokem

      Never.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem

      It's like Trump wall that was to be paid by Mexico

    • @bsh819
      @bsh819 Před rokem

      Everyone will take a bite out of Russia for their reparations. First Ukraine... then Georgia, then on down the list. The Rus will be back to their 18th century borders and everyone will be happier.

    • @nikolazuzic
      @nikolazuzic Před rokem

      @@bsh819Ukrajina is Russia ,usa must be desolated

  • @petermann7131
    @petermann7131 Před rokem

    Nice lecture, but like all forecasts, assumptions and inputs dictate predictions. Some used here have been demonstrated to not be correct both methodologically and factually. ...but that's economics, it's not a science.

    • @peternewman7940
      @peternewman7940 Před rokem

      Economics is very much a science. But like all good scientists, economists must sometimes quantify things that are not countable. What is wrong with that? All social statistics do that.

  • @tonygold1661
    @tonygold1661 Před rokem +2

    An excellent talk by Sergei Guriev. Thank you.

  • @jmbpaz
    @jmbpaz Před rokem +10

    All risk is worth it for a new multi polar world my dear

    • @username7777771
      @username7777771 Před rokem

      The crazy thing is the US sits in a stronger position than before the war started. So far, the only winner here is the USA. So, thanks Putin??? 😊

    • @stephenbuck1280
      @stephenbuck1280 Před rokem

      So you want to live in a dictatorship like China or Russia😮 China has imprisoned 1,000,000 people due to their religious beliefs and Russia is highly corrupt and economically uneven country where a few are very rich and the poor are very poor.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem +2

      So go and fight on the front line

  • @DRArthur
    @DRArthur Před rokem

    🎉

  • @JRBendixen
    @JRBendixen Před rokem +3

    One of the greatest things about this man is, he is shy of saying he does not know the answer to a question.

  • @TomTabaczynski
    @TomTabaczynski Před rokem +4

    All the politically correct talking points. Why do you need a PhD for this?

  • @macster1000
    @macster1000 Před rokem +1

    Great Session!😊

  • @maxotaurus5140
    @maxotaurus5140 Před rokem +2

    We're just financing the debt? The Putin 350 billion frozen would pay it off.

    • @qatestmit
      @qatestmit Před rokem

      You mean the lost £350 billion the EU cannot find.

    • @maxotaurus5140
      @maxotaurus5140 Před rokem

      @@qatestmit
      If it is gone, good 😊 👍
      F Putin

  • @kyhber1
    @kyhber1 Před rokem +8

    Brilliant 👌..Now that's an expert in his field .

  • @ulfsoderberg2581
    @ulfsoderberg2581 Před rokem +14

    Dont listen to this. If you do , you would not get anyting right.

  • @fearhungerpride
    @fearhungerpride Před rokem +3

    The talk was fine, but it would have been great to see the slides that the speaker was referring to. Whoever was producing this needs to lift their game.

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @bisin87
    @bisin87 Před rokem +2

    Skip to 11:13

  • @richardcory5024
    @richardcory5024 Před rokem +7

    Sergei Guriev forgot to mention that the oil and gas no longer purchased by the West cannot be transported in any significant amounts to other markets. The logistics simply do not make this possible.

    • @stevenmaritz2681
      @stevenmaritz2681 Před rokem

      He did price cap on oil sales to external buyers, shipping insurance premium increases to increase costs.

    • @richardcory5024
      @richardcory5024 Před rokem

      @@stevenmaritz2681 The Russians said they would not abide by the price cap on oil by maritime transport but they have no choice.

    • @paulbadics3500
      @paulbadics3500 Před rokem +3

      Not so sure..turks & indians figuring things out very quickly & china has already been building pipelinea

    • @richardcory5024
      @richardcory5024 Před rokem

      @@paulbadics3500 There is no way on earth that the Chinese will pay the absolutely staggering cost and decade long work for thousands of miles of pipelines thorough virgin, uninhabited territory when they can continue to get fairly modest amounts of Russian oil at a huge discount and source all the oil they want from the rest of the world. The Chinese are not stupid, and neither are the Indians. There are no free rides for the Russians anymore.

    • @paulbadics3500
      @paulbadics3500 Před rokem

      @@richardcory5024 while it wont be easy for Russia to replace european buyers with asian ones quickly the transition has been well underway for several years & progressing at a fast pace...nat gas pipeline exports from russia to china already huge & will double by 2025 & again by 2025 & more Oil pipelines in the world , in meantime shipping LNG, Crude & refined products from arctic to pacific & through turkey & central to India..china & india big winners buying discounted oil & gas from russia while western economies suffer high prices & inflation..russian indian & chinese energy & shipping companies making a killing & lots of product being diverted to avoid sanctions & price caps

  • @johnaguirre9196
    @johnaguirre9196 Před rokem +12

    US/Nato's war.

  • @LeutnantJoker
    @LeutnantJoker Před rokem +3

    11 minutes of useless intro. When will organizers finally understand that people want to listen to the invited speaker, not you

  • @anthonykenny1320
    @anthonykenny1320 Před rokem

    was it really so difficult for the camera to move up a bit to take in the graphs
    almost made the talk pointless

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem

      Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @stanislav7920
    @stanislav7920 Před rokem +5

    46:14 "Accelerate the greening of the European economy..." - после этих слов, не вижу смысла дослушивать до конца.
    Скорее в Африке случится эта "green economy" - потребления там меньше.

    • @Pajune
      @Pajune Před rokem

      What are you smoking? Are you aware Africa is a continent with 54 nations with highly different corruption indexes?

  • @bjrnhjjakobsen2174
    @bjrnhjjakobsen2174 Před rokem +5

    The Russian fiscal 2023 budget is based on a oil price of USD 72.(actual price is 50). The deficit will eliminate the “special savings account” by June/July.

  • @dongye3645
    @dongye3645 Před rokem +4

    👍👍👍 very good lecture, , , a funny professor is always appreciated, , , otherwise i fall in sleep in class 😄😄😄

  • @SuperTonyony
    @SuperTonyony Před rokem +3

    If nations can still invade other nations and annex their territory, then the Allies fought WW2 in vain.

    • @DominicFlynn
      @DominicFlynn Před rokem

      But that's not what happened in Ukraine is it

    • @dominik36127
      @dominik36127 Před rokem

      @@DominicFlynn How come? Russia invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory so I guess it is precisely what has happened. First Crimea in 2014 and now they are trying to annex Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozia and Kherson oblasts.

    • @DominicFlynn
      @DominicFlynn Před rokem

      @@dominik36127 that didn't happen

    • @dominik36127
      @dominik36127 Před rokem

      @@DominicFlynn Yes it did. This is precisely what happened. But if think otherwise maybe you can enlighten us what do you think happened so we can explain to you where does your confusion comes from.

    • @vishwas1868
      @vishwas1868 Před rokem +2

      yes you need to tell that nato and the US, they have created havoc . No wonder russia which lost 27 millions lives in ww2 cannot stand the hypocrisy

  • @hujintao6862
    @hujintao6862 Před rokem +5

    This is a real, high level lecture by a competent academic.

    • @jmbpaz
      @jmbpaz Před rokem +5

      No, this guy has a HUGE ax to grind, also, he's total believer in liberal democracy and thinks free markets work. So no, he's trying to be more western than than the westerners.

    • @barissavas4027
      @barissavas4027 Před rokem

      @@jmbpaz true

  • @danielhutchinson6604
    @danielhutchinson6604 Před rokem +23

    Russia annexed Crimea in 1783, the West appears to never have noticed?
    Tennyson may have mentioned it in poem, about the Light Brigade......
    But the economy of Crimea has been as tied to Moscow, as San Diego is to Washington DC.
    The eternal effort to exploit Russian Resources is evident and harmful.

    • @DavidSmith-yi8ou
      @DavidSmith-yi8ou Před rokem +15

      @@andrei6267 wrong. Russia occupied Crimea in 2014.

    • @DavidSmith-yi8ou
      @DavidSmith-yi8ou Před rokem +9

      @@andrei6267 keep trying to justify the war why don’t you.

    • @DavidSmith-yi8ou
      @DavidSmith-yi8ou Před rokem +11

      @@politichia6820 like retreating from Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson… like that real world?

    • @DavidSmith-yi8ou
      @DavidSmith-yi8ou Před rokem +13

      @@politichia6820 you’ve been watching RT haven’t you.

    • @DavidSmith-yi8ou
      @DavidSmith-yi8ou Před rokem

      @@andrei6267 you mean that piece of Ukraine Russia annexed illegally in 2014?. Hypocrite.

  • @zadadazadada4298
    @zadadazadada4298 Před rokem +4

    Very informative, awesome presentation.

  • @margaretgoodheart4167
    @margaretgoodheart4167 Před rokem +27

    Title more accurately should be "NATO's War Against Russia".

    • @Bebe-ch8zk
      @Bebe-ch8zk Před rokem

      Good one Margaret, sike! Let's try this one "Russia is annoyed with NATO so they go and invavde Ukraine"

    • @user-ii1bw4rk4z
      @user-ii1bw4rk4z Před rokem +1

      You are not only goodheart, but openmind).

    • @scorpio9420
      @scorpio9420 Před rokem

      Yes, furthermore NATO=The USA.

    • @spiderone4
      @spiderone4 Před rokem

      @Adriano Celentano Why I can't see @Scorpio comment but I can see yours.
      "Putin was obviously worried that Ukraine could become a succesful democracy"
      Lol big lol after coup in 2014 first thing new democratic government did is to ban 2 political parties that had ~60-70 voter base.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem

      Russia against the free world

  • @janslodicka9020
    @janslodicka9020 Před rokem

    Terrible camera, sorry

  • @brianfriedman101
    @brianfriedman101 Před rokem +10

    What aggression? Are they talking about ukrainian nazis?

    • @ekesandras1481
      @ekesandras1481 Před rokem +3

      are there Ukrainian troops in Russia? No. Are there Russian troops in Ukraine? Yes. So who is the aggressor?

    • @endlesssolitaire731
      @endlesssolitaire731 Před rokem

      Imagine being so dumb to think that retarded post-soviet youth subculture which has no political representation has something to do with this war beyond being propaganda boogeyman for stupid people. As Russian citizen I saw this neo-Nazi subculture in Moscow, however idiots didn't justify any actions against Russian federation because some thugs bullied people with central Asian phenotype and shouted neo-nazi slogans.

  • @rkmenescal
    @rkmenescal Před rokem +26

    I had a laugh when he mentioned "eco-chamber" as if he is not trapped into one. Never underestimate the power of denial.

  • @alexandralexeev6057
    @alexandralexeev6057 Před rokem +19

    I am really proud that Sergei is russian, because people can see that we have liberal and educated people. And he shows that Russia has a chance to change and to be a democratic country

    • @constantquestioning4010
      @constantquestioning4010 Před rokem +1

      A Russia traitor betraying his motherland is an odd spectacle, a feeble mind spinning lies according to the neocon tune to satisfy Western audience.
      Vague simplistic opiniated misguided.
      He sounds uneasy.
      Distrust his biased analysis from start to finish.
      « EU is stronger than it was. »
      Such a denial of reality.
      Quite obvious that sanctions are not working, it is clear for all to see.
      Europe in recession, Russia developing fast a new future in a multipolar world order.
      The US must pay him lots.

    • @nuurnwui
      @nuurnwui Před rokem

      Fir enough

    • @303pools2
      @303pools2 Před rokem +1

      Russia is a democratic country a lot more democracy than anywhere else that’s for sure

    • @leonidragozin2247
      @leonidragozin2247 Před rokem

      And I really despise his heavy accent and minuscule vocabulary. A renegade who didn't even take full advantage of his treason!

    • @Overlord734
      @Overlord734 Před rokem

      @@leonidragozin2247 go away, rusnya, there is no vodka here.

  • @duncanbirnie4158
    @duncanbirnie4158 Před rokem +1

    👍👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

  • @sambassil7825
    @sambassil7825 Před rokem +1

    Thank you, great presentation, do you think Putin will be allowed to use nuclear weapons to save his regime?

  • @asbu5716
    @asbu5716 Před rokem +7

    Great talk.

  • @antoniomarsicola8608
    @antoniomarsicola8608 Před rokem +6

    A great explanation

  • @pulmo1
    @pulmo1 Před rokem +1

    Well done.

  • @bouloshijazin5129
    @bouloshijazin5129 Před rokem +3

    Interesting drivel

  • @paulbadics3500
    @paulbadics3500 Před rokem +11

    "Spin dictators" sounds a lot like US Canada Australia EU during covid & after

  • @maggiemay3520
    @maggiemay3520 Před rokem +8

    The speaker lives in a dream world😴

  • @Duginich
    @Duginich Před rokem

    Guriev is a great and sympathetic guy. At the same time, his views have their limits.

    • @dnickaroo3574
      @dnickaroo3574 Před rokem +3

      He follows the “acceptable narrative” as maintained by the BBC and TNI.

  • @jmbpaz
    @jmbpaz Před rokem +11

    Maybe, but Russia's economy grew faster than Germany's, not to mention insane UK with negative growth !!!!!

    • @jaarneal
      @jaarneal Před rokem +1

      Not sure what you’re referring to. The head of Russia’s central bank said that Russia’s gdp dropped by about 4%. Germany’s gdp grew (something like 2-3%), and the UK’s seemed to stay nearly the same… so it MAY be in a recession. We still don’t have all of the numbers yet.
      Regardless, compared to both of those western economies, Russia’s has suffered more. Like this guy said, given high oil prices, one would expect that Russia’s economy would grow by 5% in 2022. Instead it shrank by 3-4%, which means the sanctions have had a significant (but not catastrophic… yet) impact on Russia.

    • @malfeasance62
      @malfeasance62 Před rokem

      @@jaarneal he's about recent IMF predictions

    • @jaarneal
      @jaarneal Před rokem +1

      @@malfeasance62 Probably not, because he used the past tense “grew”. But yeah we’ll see how close the IMF comes to being correct.

    • @peternewman7940
      @peternewman7940 Před rokem

      @@jaarneal Interesting that when Western sanctions throttled the flow of imports Russia receives from the West, this naturally improved Russia's balance of payments - despite reduced revenue streams from oil and gas.

  • @jmbpaz
    @jmbpaz Před rokem +16

    How can a guy be so ignorant, the whole global south understands exactly what's going on, BRIC's baby.

  • @LosTCoz3000
    @LosTCoz3000 Před rokem +7

    it's ukraine's war. they could have ended this a year ago.

    • @ekesandras1481
      @ekesandras1481 Před rokem +3

      by surrendering?

    • @_mimika_
      @_mimika_ Před rokem +2

      На Украине все могло закончится ещё в 2014 году, без необходимости вмешаться в конфликт России. Для этого были подписаны минские соглашения... Которые поддержали Германия, Франция, Россия и которые Украинская власть обязалась исполнить, но как и всегда, обманула :(
      Но учитывая что Украина лишь марионетка, думаю что мирно развиваться России не дали бы, просто сменили марионетку:( У России много слабостей, которые используют¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

    • @malfeasance62
      @malfeasance62 Před rokem +1

      @@ekesandras1481 by following the Minsk agreements.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem

      ​​@@malfeasance62 Russia did not follow the agreements (btw: I saw you are a Russian following Russian websites)

  • @davewalters6348
    @davewalters6348 Před rokem +4

    Whole lot of speculation and outright propaganda mixed in with a few more then obvious observations

  • @henrycunha8379
    @henrycunha8379 Před rokem +1

    Awful video. Doesn't show the graphs, for whatever strange reason.

  • @fazm7093
    @fazm7093 Před rokem +14

    Quite one sided. How about bringing someone on who supports the current Russian government. It's very selective to say Russia has extra judicial executions when whe US does it regularly and uses it as a badge of honour

    • @theresaadams7143
      @theresaadams7143 Před rokem +1

      We are being deceived in believing that the deaths of high level missile scientists and other Russian elites are Putin's doing. I would not rule out CIA operatives doing the kiling instead.

    • @ekesandras1481
      @ekesandras1481 Před rokem

      both have extra judicial executions, Russia has more.

    • @fazm7093
      @fazm7093 Před rokem

      @@ekesandras1481 I doubt that but would be great to see the evidence. I think it would be more weighted towards the US by 50 to 1.

    • @theresaadams7143
      @theresaadams7143 Před rokem

      @@ekesandras1481 please provide sources for your claim. Because I can produce an overwhelming amount perpetrated by the USA, one such person is Kennedy and Osama bin laden, Sadam, Iranian general, khadafi and many more.

  • @davidfrommer587
    @davidfrommer587 Před rokem

    Useless to watch without the slides he is referring to.

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem +1

      Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

    • @davidfrommer587
      @davidfrommer587 Před rokem

      @@WiiwAcAt Nah, train your camera person better to show them during the talk

  • @minka6
    @minka6 Před rokem +9

    russia will be somewhere between Iran and N Korea. excellent lecture

  • @tubefm01
    @tubefm01 Před rokem +5

    I have the impression Russians generally speak honestly, this guy is an exemption.

  • @elizabethfitzgibbon3908
    @elizabethfitzgibbon3908 Před rokem +1

    Too much time spent on introduction

  • @ekesandras1481
    @ekesandras1481 Před rokem +4

    There is a Russian officer in Ukrainian captivity who gave very detailed numbers. He said from his battalion tactical group of 1.100 men about 300 refused to fight in Ukraine. And this was before the mobiks cames, so professional soldiers, not conscripts. When you consider that only rather patriotic people seek a career in the military, you may assume that the number in the general population is higher. At least above 30%.

    • @peternewman7940
      @peternewman7940 Před rokem

      Touche!
      Many Russians will have misgivings about their government attacking their close neighbour - indeed sometimes their own family and friends! Surely there are better alternatives to this war?

    • @bgc9562
      @bgc9562 Před rokem

      🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 source: cnn, cia, selensky🤣🤣🤣

  • @vi_terminator
    @vi_terminator Před rokem +3

    This is pure one-sided POV, Why don't this Prof. also discuss how US, NATO countries invaded and ruined so many countries. Because of the West aggression, Libya is now left devastated. See what happened to Afghanistan.

    • @uschurch
      @uschurch Před rokem +3

      Ghaddaffi gone, Saddam gone, milosevic gone. And you cry. Think about it.

    • @spiderone4
      @spiderone4 Před rokem

      @@uschurch Bashar el Assad holds because Putin decided to back him up. Obama gone ,Trump gone. Biden is desperate, waiting for Putin to drop him some bone so he could save some face. Neeext.

    • @walterbo7687
      @walterbo7687 Před rokem +1

      Because is about Ukraine war. Get over it. Or organise your own convention

  • @barcode6495
    @barcode6495 Před rokem

    There is no other russia and never has been.

  • @thomasmoseid2145
    @thomasmoseid2145 Před rokem

    Can't see the charts!!!

    • @WiiwAcAt
      @WiiwAcAt  Před rokem +1

      Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

  • @user-qm7nw7vd5s
    @user-qm7nw7vd5s Před rokem +1

    👍👍👍👍