[Festival of Ideas 2019] Are the US and China Doomed to Enmity?
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- čas přidán 27. 07. 2024
- Relations between China and the United States have clearly gone downhill in the past few months. Is this a temporary blip caused by Donald Trump or a manifestation of deeper problems? In this lecture, Prof Kishore Mahbubani will argue that fundamental structural factors are responsible for the recent deterioration in bilateral relations. It will evaluate the economic, political, cultural and strategic fault lines between the US and China, and identify the key driving forces among these factors.
Watch the lecture to find out more.
This public lecture is part of the Festival of Ideas (FOI) 2019, the inaugural flagship event of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. The theme for FOI 2019 is Governance for the Future: Asia's Perspective.
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Speaker:
Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore
Moderator:
Danny Quah, Dean and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
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America has always used war instead of diplomacy. War with their indigenous people, war with their neighbors to both the north and the south, war with Britain, war with itself, war with Iraq, proxy war with Syria, trade war with China, cold war with the USSR, economic war with Russia, economic war with Venezuela, economic war with Iran, war with Vietnam, war with Korea, war with Spain, war with Panama, war with Nicaragua, war with Germany, war with Japan and on and on and on. It has never resorted to diplomacy when war is so enticing. Why would it not go to war with China? It's already saber rattling with Iran seeking an excuse to attack. It's already saber rattling with China seeking an excuse to attack.
🎃🎃
Kishore is the pillar to a world making sense.
I deeply respect Kishore Mahbubani and his analysis on China & Asia's rise, China will overtake America & become no1 within a few years, backed by economic & demographic trends, but America refuses to accept it, instead America will do anything to maintain its dominance, but America can't stop China from overtaking America, its impossible, America has to change & adapt to this new world where Asia led by China will be the centre of world power.
China doesn't need to pick fights with anyone. As you've indicated, the fundamental resources available to the Chinese is facilitating china's rise. The US philosophy is a zero-sum game. They see the rise of China as a challenge to its own dominance. The US will do everything and use any means to remain on top. This may not mean hot war, but the strategy currently being employed by the US increases the chances that friction and propaganda will align both sides as diametrical opponents, which can ultimately manifest in some form of physical conflict.
@John Buffalo I am 97 Lol! You again? Hello, my friend, Get ready for Asian domination! Asia will rule the WORLD! It's irresistible, little tiny Britain can't stop it!
@John Buffalo I am 97 Are you serious? As the record that Chinese Navy have built many warships in 2019 which the tons are same size as the whole UK Navy. Chinese military is growing fast as the world never see in the whole human history. Are you sure your Navy can dealy with Chinese? I bet you will LOST all your Navy ships nearby China and LOST all your Asian bases by Chinese missiles which is the best in th world. DO SOME RESEARCH before you say something, will you?
Well, rise of China is inevitable. But, I'm not sure about China's demographics and financial bubbles. It may be threatening.
Time will tell.
@@naiyayika You don't need to worry about China's demographics or financial situation, you should be more worried about the demographics and financial troubles of Europe & America which is dire and worrisome, especially the decline of the White population and birth rate, and also unsustainable soaring debt problems, China just lifted birth limits and on the financial situation, China's government has a range of tools at its disposal, so no need to worry about China, you should be more worried about America & Europe, when China has issues, the Anglo-Saxon media always quick to find faults and talk of troubles for China, which is just wishful thinking, China will continue to prosper and rise, while America & Europe floundering, China will overtake America as the new no1 economic power within a decade, that's a fact! Backed by economic and demographic trends, which you can't deny, not even the bias Anglo-Saxon media can't gloss over, even if they try.
Many countries' leaders say they don't want to have to choose sides. But I wonder provocatively if this is even a scenario anymore? To quote Kishore:
- Most of the world's countries have joined BRI with China despite American challenges and lobbying
- In the example of the Indonesian university lecture hall, the clear majority of students today view China as the most important country in the world
- For Asian countries like Australia and Singapore, the current pressure to choose comes from straddling their Chinese economic relationship on one side but the American security relationship on another side, and these economic vs security relationships may be used diametrically against each other
- But if-or-when China's military-industrial complex eclipses America's, just as China's economy eclipses America's, countries may feel reduced need and pressure to be strategically ambivalent, American security challenge may reduce or withdraw from this contest, and whole set of economic and security relationships in the Asian system will be aligned
- Simply by not making a "choice" in the meantime, countries are in fact choosing a future they'd be more comfortable in being in within Asia.
China doesn't have and won't have a military industrial complex.
The American military industrial complex have come into existence because of its engagement in WWII. That's a pity!
@J K fake news! that rocket boy ever threated China to nuke Beijing and Shanghai as he thought China didn't support him well in the UN, and he was quiet now as China 100% implemented the UN santion to N Korea. Read more real news but not only Anglu Saxon medias on China, take this wise Singapore talent old man's word! N Korea's nuke tech was from USSR which was long time ago when they sent lots of students to, and it was lucky for them that N Korea have all nuke material in their own mountains.
Kishore is pretty well known in China, as 马凯硕 ma3kai3shuo4. Always a pleasure to watch him speak, almost like watching some kind of performance.
A very good and thoughtful analysis by some unencumbered minds.
Had already had two for myself since 2018 .Huawei for wechat and Sony for watapp., no problem, proud two mobile phone.
Enmity is not the same as war; enmity really means China winning slowly without starting a war, with the US looking on and lamenting without starting a war.
So refreshing to hear Dr Kishore !
The US set up rules based order with Institutions set up for their own interests not becoz they are benevolent nor magnanimous. China was able to work within the system to be where she is.
Without American money, China is a third world country
@@jamesbee-xg2ss There r always trade-offs. Americans put their money in S Arabia for their interests not becoz they like the Saudis. Similarly they put their money in Egypt or Pakistan for a purpose. China just work within the system. Don't believe that over the 40 years, China didnt do things covertly for them. Life is not that simple. Nations deal with bigger issues.
@@jamesbee-xg2ss No American money went to China. Instead most of the money came from oversea Chinese.
jamesbee 1125, The reverse is also true .
Global village or multilateralism will have to single out or santion a single country?
Very interesting and clarifying !
Really good discussion. Thank you.
It is clear that the US taught the elites of the world well. Not precisely for generosity, as they may think, but for sheer interest.
So much wisdom ..... Thank you Kishore!
Kishore said that the alleged IP thief and forced tech transfer only contributed a negligible part in the rise of the economic power of China, then how did it alienate the US business community? Honestly, those things were way more serious in the early decades of the economic reform, and the US business community seemed perfectly fine with them.
Kishore made an important point that in 2050 Europe's population was twice that of Africa but by 2100 Africa will be 10 times more populous than Europe and many Africans will find themselves in Europe to escape hardship (2100: Europe 630 million vs Africa 4,630 million . So Africa population is projected to be 7.34 times more than Europe population, not 10 times more.
Danny Quah knows his questions!! very impressive with his style!!
Thanks, Kishore takes a deep breath before answering and after, hehe.
Waiting for Prof Kishore's book :)
I don't agree that the US was benign in many of the institutions it created. It was always about maintaining Anglo Saxon dominance sometimes overtly and sometimes overtly - like Five Eyes. Anyone who sought other paths were isolated or attacked.
Education, equality, health care, and a clean environment are a priority. Friendly with neighbors and all nations including the US. The action of China in compassion and Soft Power could be a paradigm for the world.
Wow only you can save the west. God from Singapore!
Quah, China should demilitarize the South China Sea. The traditional alliances of the US are still intact- ANZUS, NATO and with Japan and So. Korea. Kishore's excellent assessment is well appreciated.
Lucid as per usual.
However on Xinjiang:
1)Whilst the Uighur/Xinjiang issue is deeply troubling, it may be also wise to remember that it is NOT a war against Muslims. The biggest Islamic community in China are the Hui who have no issues with terrorism/seperatism and have not been subject to any government attention.
2)Also note that whilst China is guilty of employing a clumsy, insensitive and blunt instrument to deal with the matter, there have been over 800 deaths both Han and Uighur as a result of indiscriminate Terror attacks since 1990s peaking in 2015. Imagine if that was say in the UK...what measures would have been adopted (see Northern Ireland). Thus far there have been allegations but no evidence that there have been ANY deaths in these camps. "Genocide" seems a bit of a strong word to use when as mention American bombs have inflicted far more "collateral damage" over its many wars in recent decades.
3)Plus the UN report estimated was between 10,000 and 1 million which basically meant they had no idea but the media took the biggest number and ran with it. The phrases "highly exaggerated" and "lack of due diligence" may come to mind. I mean, for mass prison, how about what US policy has done to the Palestinians? Media strangely silent.
4)Whilst China gets labelled with hyperbolic words like 'Genocide', what's happening in say nearby Kashmir is far more brutal and mostly unreported by Western media outlets since India is the 'largest Democracy' in the world. Instead media prefers to report on say Hong Kong in which the CCP seem pretty lenient in leaving the (very violent) protest largely in the hands of the HK govt and police to deal with. Again contrast Kashmir. For that matter the Yellow Jacket violence in France. Double standards much?
5)Finally those leaked reports - if one reads Chinese, one would realise that the translations provided are very different from what was actually said. If anything, much of it was instructions were to low ranking officials stressing that this was not a war against the Muslim religion and to treat the suspects fairly. Very much different from the translations provided. Some of the words which suggest 'extermination' really also translated were more related to destroying wayward ideas. Again very few people have bothered to question source (There was no official Government stamp...the writings were coped by the Paper itself) or get proper translations before jumping to conclusions.
This is NOT to excuse what is happening in Xinjiang of course but a bit of levity may be useful.
Your comment on Kashmir is unacceptable. I think you are aware that the ethnic Hindu population(kashmiri Pundits) in Kashmir had been brutalized and thrown out of their homeland, in the name of Islam. No media including Indian media highlighted the ordeal. No Human Rights Organization speaks about the same. islamization of Kashmir is the biggest threat.. Please have a look in the ethnic cleansing of Non Muslims in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan... Nobody speaks about the atrocities faced by the minorities... Don't forget that the Buddhist culture and religion has been wiped out in these Islamic countries ignoring the centuries old tradition...
Anglo saxon just refusted to understand ( even though they know the truth hurts ) SAD!!!!
Kishore is our future east and west
36:50 The US dollar is not the world only reserve currency , the dollar is one of and the main one. Euro, Yen, Sterling ,etc are also world reserve currencies. The euro , for example, makes up about 20% of central banks foreign currency reserves.
US dollar is 61% of reserves, Euro is 20% which is small when their economy is 20% of world GDP and their neighbors in their region need some Euros for other reasons. Euro was almost 30% then their economy slowed and then they raided Cyprus bank accounts for bailout showing money in Euros can be taken by govt to fund things. Yen is 5% despite Japan being 1/3 of US GDP. China is 1%. So, yes, we don't deserve it but our US Dollar is the world reserve currency. 60%!!! American people have flaws but they can't imagine not supporting the Dollar or using another currency, while in Greece or France people do talk of leaving the EU and currency.
Kishore saying US didn't behave like a hegemon when it became powerful....
Middle east: Am I a joke to you?
South America: Am I a joke to you?
Mexico: Am I a joke to you?
Laos: Am I a joke to you?
Vietnam: Am I a joke you?
US is powerful because it is a hedgemony. Otherwise, it will cease to be powerful.
Decouple Now!
Interesting and informative discussion! Kishore Mahbubani's insights are a treasure trove for anyone seeking to understand geopolitics and the historical events we are living through today. Looking forward to getting a copy of his next book.
Washington needs to be cleaned out.
What's wrong with Washington? Americans and politicians like it as-is. It's a great democracy.
Europe will be Africa's Africa or the second Africa.
kishore is an american fan no doubt
The US HAD PIVOTED IN PACIFIC 60 TO 80℅MILITARY before China military at scs.WHY?
Lo
One old junk Russian aircraft carrier from China can scare the shit out of 10 US aircraft carriers. Why? Uncle Sam has no confidence in himself?
US envision the world should have the same value and ideology as the west. That’s why US started every major war against other countries in the attempt to align other countries, killing millions along the way. What a western value. Let’s cut the craps. It was all about oil, US dollar dominance and the concept and maintaining of US empire.
The host seemed to be biased
"multilateral without US" and "using US dollar is our fault" 😁
he's being honest but it's not appropriate to say in the way he said it
learn to advocate but not advocating, having a strong direction, but say things in an open minded way
สวัสดีครับ
FDR's righthand man during his effort building up Russia after WW2 said something like " generations later would thank their freedom for his effort ----- I suppose a competitor to check on the imperialistic intention of "American Century" advocators.
Actually it is kinda worrying about China that now it is going to enact some kind of password law... and how secured are your account with the traditional Chinese platform like Alipay, Wechat etc... and of course the monitoring and censoring...
"You two can fight, but just leave us alone". Do you think China wants to fight?
All teal, what does it take to help ith no motive of power. It's structure of system, past change Tim, llp is outing on th VINE, all I see is greedy selfish take what they don't need- like the buffet line that billions can live by, but that's not l lower
Dont blame China watch this, czcams.com/video/n_klwY2RJDc/video.html
Danny Quah has no knowledge of technical engineering and is in way over his head when it comes to his understanding of the facts. He boldly claims China is ahead of the US in many fields; Quantum Computing, Fintech, AI, and Supercomputing, and thus there can be no question of IP theft if China is the leader. This is a layman's understanding of the situation. For example, just because Wepay and Alipay are enabling Scan and Pay purchases by Chinese people in many areas of the country, this only means they are ahead in adoption not on the underlying technology of QR codes and Mobile to Merchant transactions. His claim of Supercomputers is flawed, China hasn't even mastered semiconductor and memory chip manufacturing, and only 16 percent of the semiconductors used in China are produced in-country, and of these only half of these are made by Chinese firms. It is dependent on foreign suppliers based in America and Japan for advanced chips. Economists like these require to consult an engineer on staff before they pronounce these kinds of statements based on faulty premises.
The issue is US would allow other countries to own or invent the IPs? No, US just wanted to possess what other countries have.
Supercomputers don't need the small node semiconductors that smartphones do... So he was right. For several years - the fastest supercomputer in the world was Chinese with Chinese chips. That has changed in the past 2 years - but don't think it won't change again.
The US dollar as the main world reserve currency allows the US to export inflation away. There are lot of dollars under mattress , lost , buried, in people pockets that will never see the light of the day. In other words, the US will never have to provide goods and services for those dollars that people have all over the world even buried in seas, rivers, ditch, etc..37:20.
I have seen youtube video of people burning money, all it meant was that less paper money chasing less goods and services thus lower inflation. The same with the US dollar being the main reserve currency , there are dollars , sometimes as result of drug dealing gone bad, that will never see the light of day. It might be in some safe or on a dead person body. But less dollar in circulation just mean lower inflation for the US.
Long winded introduction to hear about himself rather than Kishore speak.
The silky cyclone dentsply end because ping substantively happen off a nauseating study. tasteless, abiding zone
I cringed a little when Prof Kishore said "but lets compare the record of United States and China in dealing with innocent Muslims. Which country has killed more innocent Muslims, United States or China," after addressing what the Chinese government is doing to the Uyghurs. It reeks of tu quoque/whataboutism, a logical fallacy that I'm sure Kishore did not intend to commit.
The point on hypocrisy, while valid, is unnecessary. When talking about Chinese action in Xinjiang, the discussion should and must be on the human rights abuses, the Chinese government's motivations, *and nothing else*.
He is not trying to justify China's actions, he even said China's treatment on the Uyghurs are bad. What he is trying to point out is the double standard used to judge and criticize China on that matter. If you look at the terrorist attacks in China over the past century, majority of it happened in Xinjiang. There is a case for China to curb the growth and spread of extremist ideas. America calls it concentration camps, China calls it reeducation camp and the UN panel calls it internment camp. So what are the facts we can work with? China has repeatedly open the camps to western journalists but till date there are still no proofs or evidence of it being concentration camp while America by contrast had Guantanamo. IMO i do think its more like internment camps, and that it does violate human rights, its still way better than America's Guantanamo and bombing of Muslims countries. Both are bad, but the context here is how the narrative of Xinjiang is used against China politically instead of it being about human rights. Because if its about human rights, people should be focusing on America's intervention and invasion in middle east. Even change America's approach to China's approach would have been an improvement. This is a case of lesser evil, not that we should accept it but we should start from the larger evil and work our way down. When the western media amplifies Xinjiang and downplays what's happening to the Muslims in middle east, its a betrayal to human rights.
The workable narcissus electronically spoil because golf superfamily pinch into a coherent certification. amusing, tame baker
well... 20 minutes in, and so far everything out these guys' mouth has been wrong in some way. Always just slightly wrong, by leaving something out... I am getting the strong impression that these guys have an agenda.
This speaker has such positive illusion on CCP and ignore how tough CCP treat its people. He shall go under CCP and experience the CCP's rule of law.
OBAMA got Nobel Peace Prize
If CCP treat its ppl so hash, probably millions that travel freely won't want to return voluntarily? I have Chinese friends praising how well their government has done to the country?
@@mangosorbet768 Wumao
@@zenlei8258 if I can be one probably would proud to be one. LOL
CCP is harsh against useless and worthless people mostly. Just don't be one.
I've heard this guy opinions for years. He is Chinese propaganda
Propaganda is unavoidable, depending on your education and what you've been scripted with. Or however your livelihood depends on and is intertwined with.