Russian Mobilisation - what does it mean for the war in Ukraine?
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- čas přidán 9. 06. 2024
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For nearly seven months, the war in Ukraine was not really regarded as a genuine war by the Russian government. The fighting would be done not by a fully mobilised Russian force, but by regular units, mercenaries, and Donbass conscripts - Russia's own conscripts would stay at home.
But after seven months the result of that complacency was a crushing shortage of manpower to feed Russian frontline units. Ukrainian mobilisation had made good manpower losses and allowed the formation of entirely new units - while the Russian regular army, still undoubtedly a powerful force, found itself overstretched and forced to trust sections of the front to proxies or Rosgvardia.
The results of that policy were obvious during the Kharkiv offensive.
Now, Russia has decided to double down and recommit to war. Announcing mobilisation, enacting stop-loss, and 'annexing' parts of Ukraine.
In this video, I explore why, how it's going, and what the implication may be.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats:
All my videos suffer from fog-of-war effects, but this one is especially difficult because it relies on things that are hard to quantify. The morale of Russian conscripts for example, is critical to the impact this mobilisation has, but is difficult to assess from open sources. As such, take my observations in this video as an attempt to surface relevant considerations, rather than any kind of confident or definitive assessment.
I also want to stress that while I focus on some of the difficulties Russia is facing during the mobilisation I want to bring one point home yet again.
Russia may be able to find its feet and generate new units if given time and an absence of battlefield pressure. It would be wrong to write off Russian mobilisation potential - and thus It is reasonable to assess that the importance of Ukraine accumulating additional resources in order to compensate is more vital than it has been in months (in my humble opinion).
Notes on Sourcing:
CSIS piece on Russian force design and manpower issues
www.csis.org/blogs/post-sovie...
Aljazeera (just as an illustration of media coverage) on Russian recruitment strategies prior to mobilisation:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9...
Full text of the mobilisation order:
www.politico.eu/article/text-...
Many of the DLPR/Russian sources used in this video should be familiar to those on this channel. Given the nature of many of these individuals, I do not directly link their content (and obviously do not endorse their views). But these are easy to find if verification is desired. Often quoted for example is Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of a 'regular' unit of the (now defunct) so called 'DPR.'
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexand...
Again, credit to Rob Lee and others for their work collecting and reporting on Russian obituaries and unit casualty identification.
/ ralee85
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:40 - What Am I Covering?
00:02:41 - Sponsor: BLINKIST
00:04:20 - The Problem
00:04:48 - Strategic Inputs
00:06:24 - Russia's 'Unused Strength'
00:08:22 - 1GTA: Instructors and Missileers
00:09:26 - Driving Issues
00:09:37 - I1: Casualties and Attrition
00:11:03 - I2: Contract Lapses
00:13:36 - I3: Recruitment Deficit
00:15:46 - I4: Deployment Restrictions
00:16:58 - Bleeding or Just Fading Away?
00:18:12 - Preparation & Denial
00:19:47 - The Announcement
00:21:07 - The Document
00:22:45 - Reality Might be a Bit Different...
00:23:04 - Stop-Loss & Referenda
00:23:15 - Stop-Loss, Russian Style
00:25:07 - Redefining Russia
00:27:36 - Mobilisation
00:27:51 - Russian Reserves/Resources
00:28:12 - What Are the Russian "Reserves"
00:28:50 - Russian Reserve Readiness
00:29:30 - Who is Being Called Up
00:30:52 - Making Quota
00:32:57 - Training Standards
00:35:42 - Training Failures at the Personal Level
00:37:40 - Equipment Standards
00:39:17 - BYO Kit
00:42:14 - Acknowledging Missteps
00:44:26 - Public Responses
00:45:52 - Motivations for Evasion
00:46:45 - Evaluating the Public Response
00:48:11 - Impacts & Questions
00:48:52 - Q1: Training Pipeline
00:52:27 - Q2: Morale
00:54:26 - Q3: Utilisation
00:56:14 - Stabilising the Situation
00:57:51 - Learning from Ukraine
01:00:44 - A Workable Proxy?
01:03:34 - Inflection Potential?
01:05:23 - Towards General Mobilisation...
01:07:18 - More Painful War
01:09:00 - Conclusions
01:11:43 - Channel Update
Sponsored by Blinkist: Use the link below to start your free 7-day Blinkist and get 25% off a Premium membership:
www.blinkist.com/perun
And, again, apologies for always being a week behind the news - but I always prefer to have a fuller picture rather than be first to the punch.
Check out cover caballs video about tanks being taken out of storage bases, he is a primary source in this regard as he bough satalight photos and counted.
Hi Perun, thanks for the video. By the way how about that pipeline.
I must say, I think you have a security clearance at your day job. And I admire your ability to filter your presentations to OSINT only. Another guy I follow on youtube only talks about Russian / Soviet submarines for that reason.
Better late and accurate then rushed and wrong, thank you Perun
23:10 missed an opportunity to "I am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it further" meme there.
Letss goo new Power point
*glok* Nice
W
my same reaction fr
@Djole Never thought I'd cheer that sentiment but here we are.
Best time of the week 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
When Putin said: "It's Morbilisation time" and morbilized all over the Russian Federation, it truly was one of the moments in the war.
It's Morbin Time
@@allmight9840 Mobin time
"I'm not gonna morb." -Vladimir Putin, February 2022
"VOLODYMYR.............. I'M GONNA MORB..." -Vladimir Putin, September 2022
Honestly, I strongly suspect that the events of the mobilisation are Putin’s generals disobeying him AGAIN.
He never actually wanted conscription in the first place, and was furious to learn that it was being done against his orders.
And then he probably learnt that local authorities in Russia were conscripting the old and sick.
Hitler had a similar problem with the German generals disobeying him again and again, which is why in 1942 he centralised authority to a point where all military decisions are meant to go through him first…only for the German generals to keep going around behind his back.
Putin similarly has taken direct control of the Russian military and ordered that Russian troops in Kherson are not to retreat under any circumstances.
He would do well to remember that in the last few years of WW2, there were many assassination plots against Hitler that involved the German military…
@@DogeickBateman oouuuooohhh i morbed all over the federation
I am 54, former US Army with no real disabilities. However, there is no way I could physically compete against a group of 20 somethings in an infantry batallion. It is a very physically taxing environment.
I am from Turkey and I thank you for your service sir. Seeing 50+ man with wedding rings on their fingers, holding a weapon that's almost as old as they are is a heart breaking seen. Even if they are on the other side.
I couldn't and that's what I did. In my 30s with a spine of an elderly person.
Park you ass on an HMG and you'd be surprised what you can accomplish.
@@cihanbakikok9156 Would you please pressure you government to act like they are a part of NATO and not just Russia's fuck boi, please?
@@LeCharles07 as a uni student I cant really do that yet xD
Dude you've set the bar for military and foreign policy analysis. I wish other media platforms would be so thorough. No click-bait. No plain-brain simplification. Straight-up data with context-sensitive presentation. Perfect.
Yes, Perun and thar austrian guy from military history visualized are great
God, I know. I’m like, am I into logistics? Then I watch another video from another producer, and I’m like no, I’m into a digestible, well reasoned and supported explanation of logistics written for laymen.
There are a few others which are just as concise as Perun.
@@alfredchurchill2328 Great, could you name some please?. I mean if they have the quality then i think they also deserve the attention.
@Albert Nobbs Agreed!! Even when some of the other CZcamsrs I watch regularly I leave a Clickbait comment and flag Dislike. They deserve it for disreputable behaviour !!
"If a region don't have to be fully controlled to hold referendum, the opportunity is endless" is GOLD!!!
Indeed I have had a referendum and your home is now mine, please leave whilst I take the toilet for my family.🤣
I wan't Kamchatka it's so many cool volcanos there and few annoying humans.
Finally New Zealand will come under Australian control.
Ukraine should push about 1km into Russian soil on a few places along the border and then just have a sham referendum and claim they hold most of the russian territory along the border.
I mean, if national borders have only turned into a gigantic game of "dibs", why not?
Some people in the Netherlands agreed and decided to hold a referendum over Russia (a comedians video), after all you don't have to hold the territory right? So, if any Russians want to join the Netherlands: now is your chance.
We’re all very spoiled to have this channel, I think. Perun is clever, well informed and puts in a lot of effort. Gaining his subs the old fashioned way with the best quality content.
Absolutely agree - and even his gaming channel is top notch imo! 😄
As an avid gamer there's literally no comparison between these videos and the videogame videos these in a realm of theirown when it comes to rapid fire info on the war in real time
and the random jokes thrown in spoken with straight voice is just so entertaining.
Agree! Long posts but very informative
Well said.
I'm Russian (still in Russia ATM) and as someone who's looking at this almost first hand, I can say the analysis about how mobilization itself transpired is quite detailed, for a western observer.
This whole disaster is just as sad for what it is doing to the Russian people as for what it is doing to the Ukrainian people. I hope you can stay safe.
Stay safe
Perun knows his stuff better than 99% of CZcamsrs
@@Xezlec maybe not quite as sad but yeah, its unfortunate for the average russian, no doubt
@@pissiole5654 he tried to lowkey it but yeah it reeks of so much disrespect.
PT! I knew there was something obvious and crucial that I was missing. Physical Training, especially for infantry, is crucial. Half of boot camp is getting in shape. Even if you don't get a lot of valuable military training, you absolutely MUST get in shape if you're going to be useful in battle. Simple tasks like getting in and out of the hole, going from prone to standing and actually running, with equipment, is going to be very difficult for a lot of these guys. (Trust me, when you get older, getting up and down off the ground is kind of a big deal.)
I’m turning 50 in January! Getting moving is definitely a lot harder than it used to be…😉
@@grahamstrouse1165 Wait till you hit 70...
@@MrElliotc02 wait til you hit 90…
Esp in the winter…
From 22 to 32 i was in a jägar unit who was supposed to operate behind enemy lines. At 62 it is sometimes hard to get up from a chair. If i had to run one kilometer i would need an ambulace... still i guess i in better form than the average russian fifty years old.
Just an anecdote..prior to Desert Storm I was an instructor in US Army. We had our E-4 and below pulled from us to fill out other units, but the instructors were kept at the training base. We had instructors volunteering to be deployed, but they were all told no. Thankfully losses were incredibly light, but we were training new people just in case. Don't change the logo..it's nice and simple, easy to recognize.
If/when Perun addresses the Ukraine training pipeline, it will be interesting when he gets to the 8 years of training Ukraine’s NCOs by Canadian, U.S., and UK instructors. We (Can, U.S., UK) have been training Ukraine’s trainer cadre for almost a decade. I imagine this has a great deal to do with Ukraine’s mobilization success after the early hiccups.
I was an Observer/Controller at the National Training Center. Our experience was much the same. "You aren't going so, stop asking." And, oh, by the way, the National Guard will be here next week to train and they're going.
@@markborreson yep, pretty much the same response we received. While it makes sense, it still hurt.
Tje logo is truly iconic.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Hell, certain units (i presume the Air Assault units) were starting to get that kind of NCO training since 2008, as Ukraine was attempting to get closer to NATO and was participating in both UN and NATO deployments
Russian spokesman "There is no plan for mobilization." That is actually accidentally accurate. Russia has no mobilization plan
Russia has no plan at all.
@@gaoxiaen1 yeah...but they still continue this shit!
The mobilization will be a test of who can make and field more:
Can Russia deploy more soldiers than Ukrainian weapons?
Can Ukraine employ more weapons effects to attrit those conscripts?
Either way, the coming winter offensive will be a test of how many weapons Russia can absorb with a wave of bodies, so the next wave can overwhelm this one. I think that’s the big picture. Things are going to escalate.
@@gaoxiaen1 yeah, and somehow accidentally always win major wars. I'm not saying that I'm supporting the war, just stating the fact.
@@dmitryletov8138 well, the 1st case of Mobilization, 1914.... they lost, the Russian Empire is not around in case you didn't notice :D
The Russia using 20% of its military meme is like the humans using 10% of the brain meme.
US army is about same - most of personnel is not 1st grade rifflmans.
@@sguploads9601 isn't it because the vast majority of servicemen are assigned to logistics and maintenance and not combat roles and only a relatively small percent are sent to fight?
@@XShadowzVarcolac Yeah, it's called the "tooth to tail ratio". Usually 7:1. The problem with the US is you get a tonne of private contractors doing stuff like logistics and engineering.
It literally is.
You showed the most important factor of military morale. The principle is as simple as efficient and can't be denied: The domestic advantage! Every sports team, military strategist and psychologist can tell you stories about how and why it works. Russians obviously underestimated it heavily.
I'm 56, pretty fit for a 56-year-old, and I take ZERO offence that you acknowledge that I'm not as capable as a 26-year-old - one month on the front lines, my knees would go, my elbows, I'd have a cold, then the flu, then pneumonia - I'd be a damned liability, even assuming I utterly believed in the cause. A pretty fit 56-year-old wants a warm bed and hot food to stay a pretty fit 56-year-old, and on the front lines? Poor food? Sleeping outside? In winter? No chance.
I'm 57, but my knees are crap, going up or down stairs without a handrail is difficult at best, just standing longer than 45 minutes would leave me hobbling, forget running, although it actually hurts less to walk than to stand still or do some stairs lol. Outside in winter, Nope, I don't like the cold at the best of times.
So true. Its the RECOVERY time, after one week I would be a mess.
A lot of the Ukrainian territorial units include guys a lot older than 56.
I'm 50 and a complete wreck of a human being so I take no offense what so ever
@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 That they do. There's a lot of older men in the US National Guard units, too. Their job is to hold a rifle in heated guard shacks and other rear-lines at security points and the occasional rooftop in populated areas. Not launching spearheads and going face-first into slugging matches at the trench lines.
I'm increasingly beginning to feel like this whole war, and the mobilization in particular, is a demographic catastrophe in the making for Russia. Maybe not as bad as the two world wars, but Russia will be feeling this for decades to come. They were already dealing with a shrinking population, and now both the casualties and the people fleeing the country are diminishing one of the most productive segments of their population.
It was already going down the drain 10 years ago.
This war is only adding fuel to the already burning fire.
@Deltarune In my opinion, Russia has already lost its status as a world power, and countries like China and India (yes, India. Keep an eye on that one, it has very high ambitions) are apparently looking to replace it as competitors with the USA in dominating the economies and cultures of other countries.
The amount of damage this war is doing to Russia is insane. Fleeing investors and money, destroyed lucrative trade relationships, isolated economy, restricted travel and goods, Russophobia, expansion of NATO, demilitarization, death of tens of thousands of young Russians. This is not going to end well for Russia, even if they can hold the land gained.
They were facing this even before the war, who knows how this will be accelerated
When he mentioned how many people they drafted from that village with a population of 400ish, I immediately had to think of the war memorials that Bald and Bankrupt always showed while traveling through the former USSR. It saddens me to think that there will be a second memorial right next to it with all those who passed in this war. I seriously hope that there will be enough resistance that it won't be similar but it will be devastating either way.
"So this guy hates the government and is loud about it. Let's force him to join the military against his will, give him a gun, and train him how to fight. How could this possibly go wrong?"
They didn’t really do the training part.
@@ianshaver8954 or the gun part lol
Imperial Germany tried this in WW1. Strikers got conscripted and sent to the front. Come 1918 and the German retreat, whole units went on strike.
Wish someone would explain the logic or the thinking of those governments sending dissidents to the army, like do they expect them to not live long enough? That they would shut themselves up maybe?
You know, when I strip my party members weaponry and armor to sell off in a video game its both funny and sometimes useful.
When it happens in real life its horrifying.
Hi Perun. I'm a Russian, I live in Moscow. And since I am pretty fluent in English and also exempt from the mobilization I thought I can be of use. Needless to mention - I hate this war. Feel free to write to me and ask for help with russian documents translation or anything. You have a great channel, keep up the good work.
May I ask, what are the average people saying? How do people feel about the state of the army?
@@mikehimes7944 My Russian homies are all emigrating while they can, so I reckon it can't be that positive lmao
Are you a banker or computer programmer?
@@mikehimes7944 the average people are shocked to find out that the army is spent. Personally I've been following independent foreign sources from the start of the war so I consider myself very well informed. To me it was no surprise. But I am an exception to the rule. An average russian is influenced by propaganda and is shielded from independent information by bias and a simple language barrier. So to an average man the mobilization is a very unpleasant surprise. And even more unpleasant is the fact that conscripts get sent to the front. Initially a lot of people thought that conscripts will take the place of regular units from the far east of Russia and those will get sent to fight. Or that they will only draft people with certain military skills and experience the army requires. The reality check is bitter and frightening. Nobody expected people to get drafted for immediate cannonfodder infantry work.
As a colleague of mine said at the office "Where the hell is our army?"
They didn't realize the scale of the fuckup. People are indeed somewhat pissed by the state of affairs. The fact that conscripts have to buy their own gear is very unsettling to the public. There's a huge shortage of gear. You can't buy certain items like tracking socks already since March. Now all sleeping bags and military clothing and body armor disappeared from stores. Recruits are expected to buy a shitload of stuff themselves but there's nothing to be bought.
In short - nobody likes what happens. But the public at large are not informed of the real conditions at the front, the scale of casualties and the realities of modern warfare. Incidents of poor treatment of recruits are presented as isolated problems that are being adressed by authorities in charge. They still believe everything is going to be ok somehow. They refuse to believe Russia is actually - albeit slowly - loosing the war.
@@blegi1245 I work for the military industrial complex.
Just so you know, Czechs already posted petition for annexing Kaliningrad. It went basically like this: Czechs: "We want sea and people there would simply love being part of Czechia." There was already over 1000 signatures when I saw it few hours after it started (after Putler announced annexation)
From UK - Absolutely brilliant - when finished send a copy to Russian TV and a copy to the UN - ooooh and a copy to the best stand up comedians - then sit back and get popcorn
@Leo E there you go with that logic of "historically it belonged to $name_of_country ". You've got it right.
Once upon a time Ukraine was ruled from Moscow, but that doesn't give Putin rights to govern Ukraine any more than Liz Truss can declare herself leader of Canada, India-Pakistan-Bangladesh, USA, Hong Kong, Egypt, Ghana and South Africa.
great move, we love to see it
@@clarkeorchard2304 If it works as the last few times they actually will use it as evidence that NATO wants to invade Russia, even a joke campaign. Their propaganda channels do not care.
@@julianbrelsford You forgot australia, barbados, ireland and half of france.
I spoke to the brother of a guy mobilized for Afghanistan by the Soviet Union back in the 80's... the brother got his papers... he went to the recruiting centre as requested... he was immediately put on a truck (or train) that went forever... it didn't stop for some days, there was no food or water.... some days later it stopped, they were given water.... then put back on a different train or truck..... and then they were in Afghanistan where they were clothed, equipped and sent immediately to fight. The Soviets gave them one water stop as their total training before being in Afghanistan.
I wish a Time-traveler Industrualized the Roman Republic
I'm from Zaporizhzhia and when some Russian relative asks "what do you think about the referendum" my answer is "what referendum"? Before the war, the city of Zaporizhzhia constituted about half of the entire population of the region. Now, with all the refugees, it's more. And Russians hasn't set foot into the city. Only their missiles did.
I have little sympathy for "regular russians" impacted by mobilization. For months they treated the war as something distant, something that isn't their business or fault and as such they shouldn't be the ones to have to do something about it and risk their necks. For months as my city was showered with missiles, as my friends and neighbrous bled, all I heard from regular russians, be it people online or distant relatives was, at best, excuses. Or more often, compaints that this was which "doesn't have anything to do with them" lead to sanctions that made their lives worse even though "they aren't at fault". I've seen and heard it many times, the fact that a russian citizen or political opposition is not "pro war" doesn't automatically mean they're "against war". They may not like it, but they'll just keep their head down and "stay out of politics". There were seven months of dead Ukrainians and bombed cities, if that didn't bother them enough to do anything, be it fighting or just running from the country, then it's hard to find sympathy for their current hardships.
Absolutely the correct position.
Russians need to lose this war & be forced to spend 5 decades paying reparations to ukraine through taxation.
🇺🇦❤️🇺🇦❤️🇺🇦 Stay safe. My prayers with you from Australia 🇦🇺
My Grandfather was drafted into the Wehrmacht in February or March 1945 as a 17-year old. Luckily, he never saw action before the end of the war. A Wehrmacht officer refused using kids and sent them home. Despite Russia's aggression I cannot help feel sorry for the people who will now be sent unprepared to the frontline.
Almost the same story as pope benidict in 1945, dude spent a couple years working aa guns as part of the hitler youth before being drafted. Officer didnt send them home so he deserted.
If you visit the WW2 cemeteries - look at the ages. Heartbreaking.
Dont be sorry. They are the bully. Their monthers support Putin. Hope that makes your sleep better, for what it's worth
@@piotr5830 To be fair, that support often comes from years of watching TV propaganda in a state with little or no press freedom. We need to remind ourselves sometimes that if we were in their shoes we might be exactly the same. And that that we should take our democratic institutions seriously.
Glad your grandfather was called up in a country lacking Russia's nihilism towards the lives of their own.
A friend of mine is a Afghan vet, and he said to me: If a conscript would be assigned to our unit with only a month of training, the first thing we would do is take his rifle, and second thing we would do is make sure the guy will be going home safely. Having someone who has no understanding on gun safety, operational methods, radio training, communication protocols ect is a liability. Plus its a extra mouth to feed.
There is a reason an US soldier is training for a year to even be allowed to do basic military services.
What was the doctrine during WW2 for this? Surely they didn’t train for a whole year first right? (not that it’s 1:1 situation but still demonstrative)
@@mduckernz None. The USSR lost 11 million soldiers against 2.5/3 million German soldiers. The USSR just threw bodies at the problem until the problem got pushed back. But the USSR had no choice, if they stopped with throwing bodies, there wouldn't be a USSR, so it was accepted by society. Do note land-lease from the US helped them a lot, mainly in supplying trucks. And Germany itself made some catastrophic mistakes.
However so much has changed between ww2 and nowadays in terms of warfare it is incomaprible. In the 17th century you just had to be good with a sword, in ww2 you just needed to be a good shoot. Now you need to have a good brain.
@@mduckernz War has changed significantly since the the 1940's. One precise long-range strike can wipe out hundreds of soldiers, numbers mean absolutely nothing now.
@@thundereagle4130 They also got massive financial and logistics assistance from the US, put their entire economy on a war footing and were fighting for their survival (The shoe is on the other foot this time.) They could also crank out T-35s from the Urals without having to import engines from Germany. Different world.
@@thundereagle4130 Oh, sorry, I should have specified- I was asking of US doctrine :)
(I’m assuming that’s what you were comparing to, re: Afghan vet)
Perun, I had to laugh hard when you say that the Russians assume that military veterans will remember their training and experience. I'm retired US Navy and 58 years old. I haven't been in a combat zone since I left Bosnia in 1999. The uniforms have changed, the weapons (I was still using a M16A2, I have never touched a M4), and tactics have changed in the last 20+ years due our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Russians are basically making these guys into cannon fodder. I feel sorry for them.
From what we've seen of Russian gear in this war, I don't think getting accustomed to modern weapons and uniforms will be a problem faced by many veterans.
@@HeadsFullOfEyeballs: I agree. However, if the US was doing the same thing, I would have to train up for a few weeks which the more modern gear, at least spend some range time with the new rifles and pistols coming out.
@@johndittmer8488 The Russian's military standard rifle is the AK74 which as the name sugggests hasn't changed hugely for the last 40+ years (except for the plastic trim instead of wood and a foldable stock).
Thanks again Perun. Spent 24 years in British army. You have no idea how cold and wet you can get, even with good kit. Late 80s (before British Army equipment improved in the 2000s) on Bergen-Hohne Training Area in -10 in my 439. It's horrible but you're young and it was only exercises lasting 3-4 weeks. These old guys with rubbish kit on the steps in winter poor sods. I can see a lot of them just giving up and deserting to be honest.
Or defecting to Ukraine to increase their logistics and provide all sorts of support
Imagine if these defectors were sent to defend the Belarus border allowing Ukraine to shuffle more of its trained troops to the east!
Done a few winters in Norway.With all the kit.3 months Jan.to end of March.The Melt, back to Blighty.Amount of gear you need is no joke.Tentage, fuel.Warming gear.Specialist vehicles.Base setups.Few nights in the back of nowhere as possible.Always need somewhere to thaw out after a spell in the field.Had snotracks bandwagons.Heating built into them for Norway.So can't see the Russians with any of that kit.Ukrainians will be getting all that kit I should imagine.So Russians with no kit Endex for them.
Ukraine have been calling Russian soldiers "Orcs" so much, that Russia has now fully embraced the quality standards of Mordor.
They've also embraced the ethics of Sauron.
at least Sauron was able to arm his armies.
Especially apt as Ukraine has somewhere called Rohan...
@@leeboy26 haha really? That's fantastic
Riders of Rohan! Use the 203mm artillery to liberate Lyman!
@@leeboy26 I would think Poland gets to be Rohan, while Ukraine is Gondor.
Definitely me in school:
"I hope I'll grow up to watch hour-long powerpoint presentations on military economics and logistics!"
If you are interested in learning about how logistics and economics affect military conflicts, I highly recommend the videos of TIKHistory, starting with this one:
czcams.com/video/kVo5I0xNRhg/video.html
Just stop watching those videos immediately at the moment when he starts talking about politics, or anything but logistics and narrow military history, really.
@@varana aww, someone's being salty huh...
@@varana Sorry, but I disagree with your suggestion. There are in fact more than a few points in which I disagree with TIK (such as his video on the Treaty of Versailles), but that does not mean that I am going to dismiss everything he presents and claim that all of it is false.
I disagree with Jordan Peterson on many topics, but I'm not going to dismiss all of his work based on one disagreement.
@@CMY187 very fair point. I like TIK's coverage of things generally, but he really has his bugbears. His frothing hatred of mannstein for example.
[initial statement is for perspective and is intended to highlight how much I respect and value your approach to these very detailed analysis-type vids] As a former US Army vet an current International Relations graduate degree candidate, I must say that I have been consistently impressed by the very thorough and academic approach you have to your videos sir. Your ability to synthesize key details and provide context to a vast spectrum of viewers (informed or otherwise) on a topic that is extremely complex is, also, highly impressive. Furthermore, the International Relations perspective you apply to all of your vids clearly demonstrates your tenacity for objectivity (a trait sorely lacking in mainstream media as of late). Even more so, your ability to seamlessly connect the tactical to the strategic within a "realpolitik"-based framework is inspiring given the crazy amounts of hyperbole surrounding the subject matter. I hope you know just how much your efforts are valued by those who are trying to sift through a mountain of major network media BS. SUBBED. BELL DINGED. SHARED with my friends.
“Private. Conscriptavich.” -Perun 2022
Fricken beautiful 😂
One of the reasons I got out was because I had a friend who got recalled. He was out for about a year in school with a pregnant wife and got deployed to Iraq. He was driving a Humvee and hit an IED blew off both his legs and he bleed out. Seeing people die after their time is up is a great way for you to not care about the mission you are being told to do.
yeah, that "he could've been alive and at home" really hits hard.
Damn, I'm sorry to hear that man 😔
Rip to your friend, I hope his child and partner are healthy and well x
That’s rough man, much love from Ukraine
I'm sorry to hear about the loss of your friend. That's really, really hard. My heart goes out to you man.
Perun's channel is proof there still is a market for quality and detailed content. It's amazing to see how fast his channel has grown.
The market never went away, it just became less profitable for the large media corporations. Same reason why investigate journalism is dead, it just isn't profitable anymore.
This channel is viewed by an international audience , and most media outlets are dinosaurs that don't think internationally.
The market for quality was small, is small and will stay small.
The "smarter" the content, the smaller the audience. Or as it is said, the more images a book has, the larger the potential customer base is. 😉
MSM has to be stupidly low quality, as otherwise the audience is too small. And advertising requires a large audience anyway in order to reach as many customers as possible. 🤷
Look at Russian propaganda, it's so low quality, that even the not so smart people get it, and run away when mobilization was announced. 🤷
@@jantjarks7946 There used to be smart MSM content, back in the days of print media.
But nowadays it's all about clicks, sensationalism, and most people are retards with a short attention span.
@@jantjarks7946 I prefer to think of it as "the smarter the content, the more loyal the audience".
@@andrewharrison8436 Touche! 👍
I have become completely addicted to your thorough analyses of the situation in Ukraine and Russia. Thanks so much for doing it.
Seeing the rusty AK being issued to a conscript makes me love switzerland even more. If I ever get mobilised( not likely), I have my gun, sleeping bag and almost everything exept for ammo at home. A swiss infantry man is basically combat ready when he leaves his house.
I've always found the extremely proficient Swiss Army to be evidence of Switzerland's military excellence. The country is a massive Doomsday prepper collective that somehow manages to be a cosmopolitan Heartland of European finance
After traveling a bit, I have to say I like the Swiss better than most other Europeans.
When I was conscripted into the Australian Army during the Vietnam War. My first 3 months of recruit training were under corporals, sergeants and officers who had just returned from Vietnam, The Seargent had fought in Vietnam AND Malaya. These people were highly skilled and motivated in giving us 20 y.o. all the skills they could share. We then went to our Corp training AGAIN with staff with first-hand experience. Finally, before going to Vietnam we did 2 weeks at the Canungra Jungle training.
And Russia could do the same with their Contract Army. Move them from the Front, and the Contract Renewal problem lessens.
Yeah but Australia intensive care about their citizens unlike a lot of other countries
@@michaeloreilly657 They could, but there's no evidence they are doing so. Further given Ukraine is still launching offensives I doubt Russia wants to risk losing people on the front.
the Australians were pretty widely recognized as the best in 'nam , guess can see some of why
what were you doing in a foreign country?
Did a PowerPoint presentation at work the other day. You motivated me to try harder and believe that a good slideshow can be as compelling as a movie if done right. Thank you
Internet historian just released a one hour documentary called "man in cave". Deceptively simple tittle and captivating story telling. Narration is the true medium, visual presentation is simply the support. Better than most "based on true events" movies I've seen.
Everything is storytelling.
@Stupifying Stupedity Watched that whole video. Really liked Wendigoon in it. His videos are always captivating and we'll produced. Great mini documentaries.
on the other hand Well There's Your Problem has shown you just need a picture, a few facts, a liberal bias, and a john madden pen
This is wholesome for some reason
@@stupifyingstupedity2112 that video was so good. I was shocked that an Australian delved so deep into obscure US history to find such a gem.
I have an immediate family member in the US Army National Guard. I asked him how long he thought it would take to get the IBCT ready for an actual war discarding personnel issues and transportation. His answer was 1 month. I say this to put into perspective what is being asked of these Russians who get days or even a couple of weeks of refresher training.
And the USANG has had basic training for everyone and an existing organizational structure.
@@TheFranchiseCA And each Guardsman goes through AIT for their MOS. Units do 3 - 5 days per month + 1 month per year. Soldiers also get skill training within their MOS + any career advancement training like BLC.
It really depends on the MOS. Some can be ready quickly, while others would need more than a month.
@@Nick-zz6xl The IBCT does not have a MOS. It is a combat unit.
I wish I was dictator of the Soviet Union instead of Stalin
I would have done a much better job than that paranoid maniac
As a 50 y/o, over weight, half blind (okay, I wear glasses, but just roll with it) and a veteran, I can say that bringing me back into the military would be a hard thing to think of. Pulling a civilian with no military experience to go fight in combat would be just sending someone to their death.
Can we all agree that the value of Perun's commentary is due in no small part to his reluctance to comment on any developments immediately?
He can get pretty current, BUT he tells you the assumptions, the limitation to his knowledge, and the context of his conclusions. Can't get any better than that.
I asked good friend of mine from Russia whom I've known for a decade, who did his conscription service as a tank driver, gunner and commander about whether or not he will leave and he told me this. "The people you see leaving have the money to leave and have money or family to support them overseas, most Russians barely have savings, let alone being able to afford $5000 USD for a plane ticket and $-000s more living in a foreign country, and you can only take out 10,000 rubles in cash because the border guards will check now" and he told me all the bullshit that happened with conscription before this "partial mobilization" even happened. He is very nihilistic about his future to put it simply.
Wars are always fought by the less educated and poorest.
We all remember the US soldiers captured in Iraq: mostly blacks, of humble origins and barely able to put 3 abstract words in a row. In contrast if you look at Hollywood movies the typical idealized US soldier is completely different.
In all the world the professional soldiers who enlisted voluntarily are not those with a university degree and a good salary, are those who could not get a better job in the civil society.
@@marcobassini3576 who captured US soldiers in Iraq ?
@@marcobassini3576
Based on that description, I've never met a "black" in my service. I met well spoken, hard working, fellow marines that happened to be "black skinned", but I never met this mysterious creature that can't even talk right.
That said, if a soldier does get captured by terrorist forces, he's probably just lost his unit, has nothing to look forward to but painful torture for enemy propaganda, hasn't slept more than four hours straight in a week, and is likely suffering from every physical and psychological horror imaginable. I don't care WHAT color your skin is, no-one can be expected to speak coherent sentences under those conditions.
The Iraqi regular armed forces, that were attacked by land and air by a coalition led (and by far and large manned) by USA. The image of the captured US soldiers were broadcasted in prime time by the news channels all over the world.
@@r3dp9 Sorry for the missing "skinned", but English is not my native language. And in all the languages I know (mostly Latin languages) they are simply referred as ”blacks" and "whites”. But, wait a moment!, Don't you say WASP (as White Anglo-Saxon Protestant)? Where is the ”skinned" gone?
I'm not a Ukrainian citizen, just a permanent resident (i da, Perun ja sam stari, pedeset pet, i devedeset pet kilograme!) and I was mistakenly issued a writ to front up for service. One phone call and it was all cleared up - according to Ukrainian law foreign nationals can't be forced to fight unless they volunteer. probably not the case if I was in Russia I would bet! - "you better turn up to the office and show us your papers anyway."....and bam ..I'm f****d!
Being a 40 year old, in relatively decent shape I feel I would still be a bad choice for a soldier. I can shoot and move but have no training. Trouble is it you have me sleep on the ground for a few days I'll be borderline crippled. My back will seize up and I'll be useless without a chiropractor visit.
As a fellow Aussie I really do appreciate you letting more information come to light around the topic of Russian Mobilisation before doing your research and posting this video.
So many content creators (including MSM) are so quick to jump the bandwagon the second any news story drops and make wild assumptions, try to predict the future or just flat out say things that aren't true etc.
So I really do appreciate you when you say you want to gain a clearer insight into this topic before dropping this video. It says a lot about your work ethic, really.
And finally, always good to see a fellow Aussie blossoming on CZcams. Keep up the fantastic work mate!
Also shining a light on Australians bad internet as well.
From yet another Aussie, I appreciate all of your efforts, and in particular for only posting videos once you're satisfied with the quality you can produce.
Another Aussie here and loving the well researched 1 hour+ power point!
I watched it straight away.
Australians try to have a personality beyond being Australian challenge!!!! Impossible!!!😱
I write assessments for various people.
One of the reasons why I couldn't respond to people asking "what about mobilization?" a week ago under Perun's video - I also wanted to have clear image of what was going on before making projections and estimated that I would have enough data maybe by Wednesday - though frankly only on early Thursday I've had enough data to write what impact it would have.
Otherwise I would have to use my crystal ball.
How do you keep dropping full documentaries so often? not complaining, your content is excellent and you know that your labor keeping the world informed is very much appreciated!
This guy deserves far more subscribers for his work.
Right?! I commented the same thing last week.. And have been saying it to myself for months
And at the same time as his existing full time job... Madness!
He’s clever, well informed and hard working. That’s it.
@@fartingfury What's his full time job?
I am incredibly disappointed in the average Russian. Although nearly 350,000 Russian men have now left the country to avoid the draft, yet there is still no vocal protest against the tyranny of Putin and his authoritarian regime.
Not easy.
imagine you are drafted and told :" yeah uhm, you need to get your own kit" and when you do so, it gets taken away.
Perun, im a 53 yo aussie that has done military training back in the 80s. i am on a pension for a back problem, have plastic cornea but can shoot quite well. that said can i remember half my radio and map training? no. i actually rang the Ukraine embassy and asked if they could use me. they said no. if i was russian im pretty sure i would be on the front by now. again this old aussie says SLAVA UKRAINE!
Regarding Ukrainian mobilization, the fundraisers and volunteers are extremely helpful in plugging the gaps left by the army, purchasing and delivering drones, medical supplies, vehicles, ear protection, night and thermal vision systems, and much more.
I love that Ukraine has the opposite problem; so many people volunteered to join the Ukrainian military that there were not enough roles or space for all of them.
And the Ukrainians were motivated, they volunteered. That is a big difference with the Russian mobilization. Motivated people learn much faster.
@@mikeynth7919 i wonder why Russian motivation by vodka hasn't worked for Russian conscripts.
I’m impressed with the endless grassroots support Ukraine has received for the war effort, including from outside the country.
i think the early Ukrainian volunteers also consisted largely of local volunteers . with great knowledge about the surroundings from living there a long time, and then locals calling out positions and movements, which makes good planned ambushes possible, or finding ways to retreat in case stuff goas badly . meanwhile the Russians had to ask the locals for directions.
I was surprised that you did not discuss the effect of mobilization on logistics. Needing more soldiers to accomplish the same effectiveness as the professional army would also increase the logistical requirements. Logistics is already a problem and seems likely to become a bigger problem as the counter offensive cuts off supply routes to northern Donetsk.
I would also think that fresh conscripts would not be as efficient with their supplies as trained soldiers. They would miss more of their shots, they would not have the same fire discipline. Getting killed faster, or having a lower threshold for breaking and running away, means more gear would be lost (especially if the enemy is the one on the offensive). Et cetera et cetera.
There's also the impact this will have on Russian economy long term. I'm no statistician, but if Russia has an aging population then sending your young and capable into the grinder isn't going to make things better. Granted, the numbers aren't THAT bad just yet, but add a few thousand people leaving Russia and the problems compounding over time and it'll have to have some kind of impact..
It just means it takes longer to get to the meat grinder. And the advantage is, less supplies need to be generated and shipped to the front, they're just not going to be around long enough to need them.
Integrating 300,000 new recruits is bound to be a nightmare for Russia, let alone 1 million
Look at the geography. Ukraine is massive; broken up by formidable rivers. The bridges across the rivers channel the logistics. Bridgeheads are difficult to establish and to maintain. Even on the open terrain much of the fighting focuses on crossroads and communication lines. It is a challenge for both sides.
I served as a Lieutenant in Germany with the US Army from '86-'89. I'm pretty sure some of those mobilized 20-somethings are the same Soviet soldiers I faced in the 80's. I'm a couple of months shy of 60, and way too damned old to serve as an infantryman- and so are they- even if they have military skills/experience, soldiers that old will be very limited in their effectiveness!
Perun’s work ethic and journalistic professionalism is refreshing and leaves you feeling well rounded about the topic covered. It just makes me sad to see that a man that is just applying what ever journalism major knows but unfortunately stops applying due to the capital pressures of content/news creation. This isn’t a one sided issue and it is also up to us the consumer to not only demand such standards but to show real financial incentives to those who stick to better ethics/professionalism.
Honestly the current execution of the mobilization reminds me a lot of stories I've heard of Soviet-era manufacturing: A factory manager will receive a quota decided down from on high, without regards for his factory's capacity or general context, and he either gets a bonus for meeting it or penalties for missing it. With this incentive, he pulls out all the stops and cuts all the corners in a usually doomed attempt to meet his quota, often making his finished product useless for its intended pupose without a second bout of repairs and maintenance, which is usually not his problem.
So it goes for "limited" mobilization. I think what is going on is a governor has been handed a quota of men down from on high, and is now pulling out all the cut corners to satisfy Putin's demand for troops. If some of those men get rejected for having more non-functioning eyes than limbs, that's no longer his problem.
Russia’s incompetence has long been a problem of “blame the junior official, not his superiors.” That is how that incompetence has persisted for so long.
@@Jkim890 The Czar is never wrong because he is appointed by God. His Boyars are imperfect, so they can be blamed for everything, all the way down the chain.
Funny story about that: My Finnish friend traveled to Russia 8 times per year for his business, and took me with him. Back in Finland at his kesämöki (summer cottage), he had this titanium snow shovel, best snow shovel in the world. He told me about how a Soviet-era snow shovel factory manager had a quota, but wasn’t delivered the appropriate amount of aluminum sheet to meet his quota. He managed to negotiate some kind of backhanded deal with a titanium factory, and obtained trainloads of titanium sheet! They ran that Titanium through the snow shovel blade dies like it was snowmageddon (which it is in Russia), and met his quota.
During the Yeltsin years, everything was for sale, so my friend came across one of these snow shovels with Ti blade and bought it.
Somehow, I don't think General Winter will be on the Russian side this time around.
Just discovered this channel. This is by far the most concise analysis i've ever heard. Spent the past 3 out of my 4 off days just listening to your stuff. fantastic.
Always a pleasure to see these pop up in my feed. Greatly enlightening, and much more in depth than the mainstream.
Totally agree!
But does the enlightenment involve goats?
@@danielomar9712 On skewers as rations
@@knifepony you can't do that , they're here to initiate the Baa Wave Assaults
Always worth the time. Another hour of PowerPoints!
Anyone who says a guy who's been off the line for 5 years will remember everything he needs to know to be a proficient infantryman has never been an infantryman, let alone a soldier. Land navigation is one of the most important basic infantry skills. Soldiers in the military who don't regularly practice it forget how to do it at all.
Hell, new lieutenants who practice land nav every day still forget how to do it.
It is not an easy thing to do to route yourself through unfamiliar, potentially hostile terrain with a load of kit using only a map, compass, and protractor.
Most people can vaguely remember how to operate a rifle but being able to shoot your gun without issue does not a soldier make.
Most dangerous thing in the Army, a 2LT with a compass…
Or how to perform care under fire, how to use signals, squad level tactics, how to call in a MEDEVAC, etc. It's genuinely absurd to think all an infantry is needed to do is be a finger to pull a trigger.
Nah, it's the bored private.
GPS was developed for the military and expanded to civilian use🤔☮️
"refusniks" ) it's. a good one 😃 Great work as always. Accurate, void of that "foggy state of mind" many war analysts find themselves in trying to look through the fog of war. Waiting for more vids like this.
Refuseniks
47:05 Love the sarcastic tone in this statement.
That asides, like some have said, I also feel like I'm being spoiled with the insane amount of information being accumulated in a single video. Thank you so much for the hard work, Perun.
I love how the facade of military strength Russia tries so hard to project simply encourages its enemies to more fully prepare themselves, with the result that when battle is finally joined they are actually far better equipped haha
Another good will gesture? LOL.
In my opinion, it is important to note that when it was the Soviet Union, it’s military was more-or-less decent, and that many of the best fighters and support personnel in the Red Army were Ukrainian.
In this war - the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - a 61-year old Ukrainian who is a veteran of the Soviet-Afghan War managed to drive away a group of enemy Chechens using hand grenades and an RPG.
@@CMY187 still I don't think Russia would have faired much better against Poland or Finland in the modern era
@@kameronjones7139 The Poles are actually daring Russia to go ahead and declare war on them, and in my opinion it would be sheer suicide to try to send any Russian troops across the Finnish border.
Honestly, I don’t know which is worse; to pick a fight with a Pole or a Finn (one of the commanders of an Israeli tank brigade in the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur War in 1973 was Polish)
@@CMY187 Russia opening a second front through Belarus with Poland would be the stupidest, worst decision to have ever been made in the history of warfare. It would eclipse Napoleon's decision to invade Russia, or the one battle where the Austrian army attacked itself. Right now the Poles are the most active in helping out Ukrainian refugees and pipelining shit into Ukraine, if Russia makes them take up arms, Warsaw will probably be begging NATO not to invoke an article 5, just to have a chance to do the damage to Russia themselves.
No need to write an apology for giving us the full picture + insightful analysis! I have been looking forward to hearing your lecture on the mobilisation. Being Danish (and thus at the connection from the Baltic to the North Sea), I call for a special Western "mobilisation". I suggest we close all our ports to shipping companies that keep going to Russian ports. Even if we make exceptions for food and medicine, I think this would end the war very soon.
With guys like you WW3 is 100% sure. By the way i have nothing against Russians. In honesty i should thank them to have crush Isis in Syria, what Nato couldn't achieve it seems, but still US still in Syria doing whatever things they do; US gov is full manipulating europe, only asset gone up since start of the war: Dollar.
To close those ports you will have to talk to Bejing first. Those ports are chinese controlled. Since 2008 happened and EU needed monney!!!
Worth noting, Beijing generally lacks the naval power to deblockade those ports that lie more than 500 or so miles from their territory.
@@durstigerhugo1312 lmao I’d like to see Beijing do something about it if the west closes it’s ports.
@@slimdiddyd Really, you would like to see it? Are you that guy who goes to a place hoping someone looks at your girl the wrong way? People like that tend to need to update their passport photo before the passport expires.
Wonderful as always. Thank you for sharing your knowledge, analysis, and expertise in such a clear, honest, and coherent way. I am a US Army combat veteran myself and have spent so much of my life now dealing with Army issues, but never on the strategic and especially economic level that you provide me. I recommend your videos to a lot of friends and coworkers; I hope they are also donating to your Patreon!
Keep on keepin on; I don’t know what you do as a day job in Australia (NZ, maybe?) but I hope the Ukrainian Armed Forces approaches you for advice or support in the future and can offer you a competitive career. It would pay major dividends for them. 🇺🇦 🌻
So how long until "One out of two gets a rifle. The one without follows him. When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots. The one with the rifle shoots. The one without follows him. When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots" actually happens?
Russia has been live 'training' Ukrainian defences since 2014. "Do no small harm" said Machiavelli. Russia's limited attacks have done just that, giving Ukraine ample time and motivation to prepare an appropriate response.
Ukraine has also been training the seperatist's with attacks on them since 2014.
@@sportsfanivosevic9885 The Separatists are also the ones who've been doing all the fighting. Now that's going to change and a lot of Ukropium addicts will lose their minds at the reality of Russian strength instead of just support for Donbass.
@@paddy9738 I didn't know the Russian first guards tank army and the VDV were seperatist forces. Seems like you learn something new every day.
@@patrickstar5136 Have you bothered to understand what support means or shall I explain? Why send your infantry to support the Republics when what they need is armor and artillery? This is the nature of Russia allegedly failing, they are sending units who are trained to work with Russian Armed Forces to support people who lack the required combined arms training to guarantee successful cooperation. When Russia joins the war for real it will no longer have to make up for doctrine differentials and can just fight like they know how to. That everyone chooses to ignore this most basic fact is a glaring issue.
@@paddy9738 I'll remind you of this comment a year from now and we'll see just how badly that prediction will age deal?
It's 5:42AM, but I'll be damned if I don't watch a Perun video the second it drops!
I literally just woke up. What a treat.
Perun dropped this at about 8:45pm Melbourne time, so probably didn’t mean to wake either of you
I was about to go to sleep. Whoops. There's always naps
Yeah Animarchy dropped too couple of minutes ago, so now we know what they spent their Saturdays doing.
👌for the effort
I like this time, they used to drop at 1:00 AM Monday morning Melbourne time. Yes and I still watched them.
After watching your analysis, I came to believe the reason 🇺🇦winning is not because of western support but of its determination and resilience, which spur us to fight back our selfishness. 🇺🇦 have earned it. Thankfully, the latest technology & gears are making remarkable differences on the frontlines.
Thank you for all your work. Together with your insightful updates, I learn a lot from your viewers comments sharing their experiences and thoughts. Sending all the best for you from 🇯🇵.
Ukraine's determination to fight has certainly helped it to overcome many of its structural flaws that otherwise place it at a strong disadvantage to Russia. However, do not underestimate the importance of Western support: without it, Ukraine would be in a far worse position than it is now, and might be losing despite all of Russia's deficiencies.
From the perspective of war narratives, we love tales of spunky underdogs fighting and winning against superior enemies with pure grit and determination. But if you want those underdogs to win, it helps to give them the supplies, training, and equipment to make victory feasible, and that's where NATO has come in.
Without western support ukraine would be done lol
@@AfiBless It's almost like having adequate alliances to support you can be important to winning a war or something.
Deciding to mobilize now instead of at the start of the war is just an absolutely idiotic decision and it's doubly so when it's on the heels of a major battlefield humiliation. This is basically the same as telling the new conscripts that they are being sent in because the guys who got sent in before have been completely wrecked. There really is no other way that a person could rationally interpret the situation.
The Kremlin probably had their reasons not to mobilize at the start. And they might not be military. Remember, hindsight is easy.
@@odinsrensen7460 I am sure that they had reasons not to mobilize at the stary and they were likely political ones.
I think it's more a case that they have missed the window in which they could have mobilized without sending the message that the first guys they sent in got ruined, so now they need more for a similar fate. Since they didn't mobilize at the start, they are quite possibly better off not mobilizing at all.
@@steelytemplar "they are quite possibly better off not mobilizing at all."
Then they'll almost certainly lose what they've managed to take so far. At least this way they have a chance of keeping what they occupy.
A Russian philosopher and commentator named Vlad Vexler went into this pretty well. Putin and the FSB have spent the better part of two decade de-politicizing the population to allow his regime's kleptocratic tendencies to thrive unchallenged. Basically, politically Putin needs his populace on the couch but now militarily he needs them in Ukraine. He can't have both.
Imagine announcing mobilization without declaring a war. If you are fighting and you have to mobilize, that's by definition a war!
#justdictatorthings
Haven't watched yet (obviously, I don't have a time travel machine), I will say that the fact that you waited until things were clearer on this topic says a lot about your ethics. We want in depth and researched stuff, not clickbait. Now, I need one hour free before I can do anything
I have detailed plans for a 100% working time machine available for a very reasonable price, makes reviewing your favourite content a breeze, hit me up brah
Its an hour long, wtf?! Editing a 20 minute video takes a very long time so imagine cutting up, scripting, voicing, research, etc for over an hour. Some youtubers have families and other real jobs also.
@@Morristown337 Is this your first Perun video?
@@Morristown337 That's why we respect Perun. And he does one every week, and the quality is frighteningly consistent.
@@Morristown337 perun doesn't edit. He talks for an hour and editors take notes.
Lieutenant = platoon commander. Captain = company commander. Major = batallion commander. Colonel = regiment (or sometimes brigade) commander. Brigadier General = brigade commander. (but not always they can command a division in a pinch.)
Thank you!!! 😊
Moscow throwing a party and a pop concert to celebrate the “annexation” of territory it does not control while Lyman gets surrounded is like the fictional Panem and the Districts in the Hunger Games.
I feel in some ways that there are diminishing returns on my praise of this channel. I keep it up nonetheless, because this channel ranks up there as one of the few channels, of any category, that are so high quality as to benefit society as a whole. Astounding dedication, excellent organization and presentation of extremely high content.
And all I can add is my thanks for your insight and dedication.
As long as it makes you feel good no diminishment. It can only help Perun numbers over the long term. I like it so much I joined his Patreon channel, too, because I want him to be able to continue.
Do you know any other high quality channels like this?
When I was a student they call us for mobilisation for operation in Jenin.
We had complains, no sniper and medic vest, MRE was ok but why MRE if they can feed us normal food, we miss bit of camo fabric etc.
The army solve it in two days, gave us what we need and improve the MRE (in Israel MRE is can food so you get more cans).
By the time we calibrate our weapons and arrange the vehicles we already got everything but you could feel the officer's didn't like the complains reached the media
It brings you to the main problem of Russia, they had 7 months to prepare! They can call a Platon, let them practice shooting, clean weapons etc for a week and send them home. They had months to prepare and they didn't.
It shows that every thing controlled by dictator that decide from today to tomorrow and all around him are idiots
Not a fair comparison. If the the Russians were lead by Israeli officers, Kyiv would have fallen in three days. But I guess that is your point, isn't it!
That's my point - seven months! And they can't even give these guys tents.
@@thekinginyellow1744 if Russia doesn't want to see rusty AK all over the news in Sep, they should invite that platoon in June for one week of training. Let them clean the weapon, arrange the vest an do some shooting in the range.
They knew mobilization is needed for months, Ukraine didn't blitz Moskva in sep 22
@@guyyosef3504 if they were that smart, they'd have never annexed Crimea.
It's fun to hear Perun's internal monologue struggling as it flicks between high-brow snark & impartial/unbiased.
As a former USAF procurement office and current PhD student, this channel is addictive!
"A small loan of a million dollars"
"A special military operation"
"partial mobilization"
same level of ridiculous in what those statements actually mean
Another element of morale I’m curious about: the health impacts of despair, especially alcoholism. A 50 year old who drinks 250ml of vodka before bed each night might not get the DTs if he’s suddenly in a combat zone with no booze, but he’s gonna be on edge. The slow deterioration of physical stamina for even someone in their 30’s who is drinking 8+ beers at a pub most evenings is going to reduce their capability, as well as their motivation when that’s no longer available.
At least some Russian troops have been given both vodka and drugs during the invasion per videos of abandoned camps and cell phone intercepts.
Russian doctrine prefers fearless, totally obedient troops so this fits. Especially for those ordered to do horrible things. Which appears to have been done *everywhere* tho Bucha was very bad.
Seriously, I've concluded there are no career military who haven't either committed or ordered war crimes unless they were stationed in back areas. It's basically an army of serial killers.
@@macmcleod1188 Being on the sauce is going to make them a liability in modern high intensity war
@@alexdemoya2119 yes. Russia is essentially fighting world war 2 (or even world War 1) style.
Five units a day will absolutely send you into eithdrawal if you suddenly stop. That man will die in delirium of he suddenly stops drinking.
@@macmcleod1188 I've often wondered how many human beings are *actually* that deeply emotionally affected by the idea of "doing horrible things" to people. Everyone must at least learn to convincingly pretend to be, obviously, or they'd be completely ostracized at best. And they tell themselves it's the truth, to feel good about themselves. But when wars happen, we see that most people (or at least most males) are able to get awfully nasty. And that seems to happen suspiciously quickly and suspiciously easily. Could the civility all just be a big lie we tell ourselves?
One thing that is glossed over, is the fact that bolstering a modern army with conscripts is a concept that worked well prior to modern warfare, whereas a warm body with a hand-held weapon was worth something. Modern warfare has changed and while the grunt with a gun or something pointy had military value in-and-prior to WWI and to a lesser effect thereafter, that has changed and what Russia is sending to the front lines is just a little more work for the ever-modernizing Ukrainian Military to plow through to the tragic human-cost of the Russian citizen.
I remember watching your dominions 5 guides, just checked on your channel and you blew up. Good to see you're still making content man
Russia claimed they will demilitarize Ukraine, but what they actually meant was they will "demilitarize IN Ukraine"...
Nah bro Putin is trying to bankrupt the West by making them use up so many bullets that they run out of raw materials to make them. 4D chess, try to keep up 😤
And they militarized Ukraine. Ukraine has been being propagandized to some kind of super great place, but it might end up as presenting a shit show worse than this mobilization if it's not being taken care of and rebuilt after this war. If it will be let fallen and forgotten like Afghanistan after the Soviet Invation, a country with tons of weapons, a traumatized population, a destroyed economy, a southeastern part in ruins, with tons of nazis and rampant corruption - dear god... Best for Ukraine would be if they win but Russia still pose some credible threat, then the chance of it being rebuilt by the West and faring well is quite high.
@@albertdittel8898 Where are the nazis? :P Ukrainian society seems very consolidated, honestly. Only possible friction I can imagine would come from Crimea and Donetsk probably (occupied since 2014).
Othwerwise, yes, I can understand the nightmare you are describing, but I think the West's commitment to rebuilding is very firm.
@@albertdittel8898
"Tons of Nazis"
No nazi would be sticking around in Ukraine after a crossdressing jew ended up in the highest level of office.
I don’t recall the exact words, but back in the mid-1930’s, USMC Major General Smedley D. Butler was asked how long it would take to train a new marine / soldier to invade and fight in a foreign land. He said it would take six (6) months. When asked how long it would take a to train a new marine / soldier to fight and defend his homeland, General Butler said *“ONE HOUR.”* The “one hour” might be hyperbole, but highly motivated defenders are easier to train, to accept hardship, to obey orders, and to be willing to kill and be killed.
Hence, Russian stagnation and failure... Excellent point...
Stop Loss! LOL!
In '90 my unit was mobilized for deployment to Saudi in preparation for Desert Shield and Desert Storm (as it turned out). My unit was pretty depleted in November, so the Army went crazy finding us troops. I remember one wave of troops we got were GIs who had literally JUST ETS'd!!!. I very clearly recall this corporal who joined us. He told us that he had JUST ETS'd in October, got sent home from Germany, and had just started unpacking when he got a notice calling him RIGHT BACK UP! To say he was pissed puts it mildly. If I remember correctly, he and his girl had plans to marry in December and they were getting everything in place... and off he goes to Kansas to join 1st ID in the sandbox. I kid you not, he BITCHED about that almost every day. Luckily for him, he got through the war without a scratch and was discharged in July of '91. I think he and his girl finally married in September or something.
So yeah, watch that contract boys! It will screw you every time!
Medical discharge, on the other hand, prevents that.
Perun, here is an idea for a future video. How are both militaries preparing for the fast approaching winter? How will cold affect the different logistics network of each side?
P.Conscriptovich: "You said I would be in only for six months!"
Darth Putin: "I'm altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further."
“Apology accepted, General Oligarchov.”
7 months between the invasion and Ukraine's first offensive. This is impressive. 3 months to get mobilization organized, 2 months of basic training and 2 months to integrate first new solders to complete basic into front line troops.
After Perl Harbor, America took 8 months before their first major ground offenses in the far east.
Plus Guadalcanal was defensive for well over half the campaign
Not front line troops. You need to re-read the directive.
Yes, it's impressive, but to be fair, a military offensive in the far east involves amphibious landings on islands and deployment over the ocean. I think we would have been much, much faster if the Japanese were landing on the west coast.
@@davidanderson6055 well, they did not have that much ground forces combat ready either...
Yet the American strategy favored Europe first ahead of the war against Japan. It is my contention that this was not merely political. The vast expanse of the Pacific theater presented technical challenges that - with the possible exception of Japan - had not been addressed at that stage. Logistics at scale over immense distances was an entire war within a war. Add to that the fact that those people operated without computers. They truly performed near-mirracles for their time.
As far as open source intel goes, you are among the very best I've come across. Bravo. Yet another great video.
I listened to this when it came out. I opened again by accident with other things on my mind and here I am, over an hour later, still happily listening to it again.
From Ukraine, just got news that our Autumn mobilization was cancelled.
I think our army/government is looking at this as an opportunity rather than a threat.
1. Logistics will become a nightmare... try to move, outfit, and train this amount of people. Small caveat here, russia is not planning to train and out fit them so moving will be the largest issue. Trucks, busses, small cars, trains - all of this will become critical to deliver these "soldiers" to the frontline. We'll see how it goes.
2. Average preparedness will drop by a lot. Imagine that you had a unit of 50 people that had basic training and some filed experience. Now imagine that your unit is merged with 50 people who have no idea how to hold a gun, with no radios, no understanding of how to work as a unit.
3. We already see that these units are used for reconnaissance by fighting. E.g., 10-20-30-100 people are simply told to go and look/occupy a point on a map, they go and die -> other units have an idea about where the fire is coming from.
4. They are drafting everyone. Some people are anti-war activists, that's basically active sabotage unit. Also we have evidence of drafts from psychiatric and prison facilities... good luck with those units.
I think they announced mobilization to freeze the frontlines by any means and to have a bluff. E.g., we are mobilizing 300K+ so FEAR US. Yeah... good lucky buddy.
Does that mean that Ukraine has enough trained soldiers for the moment, to continue its counteroffensive or that things are slowing down on the battlefield? As for your points, they are definitely good.
@@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma probably because of autumn rainfall causing Ukraine terrain to become boggy and muddy, hampering any major ground operations.
@@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma It doesn't look like the counteroffensive is slowing down: russians have just acknowledged the loss of Liman (claiming they have retreated in an organized way, but it doesn't look like that).
@@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma can only assume that we have enough soldiers to continue without drafting more. We still have people showing up by themselves without anyone asking them... + Army tries to recruite based on speciality, for example if you are a radio specialist - you can expect a letter asking you to show up. Or maybe you had previous official military experience and you're listed in their system.
@@Metalblowing Thank you for the clarification. That's what I was hoping for. It seems that Ukraine is doing the defense operation in an intelligent and civilized manner. As someone who was certain that Russia will knock out Ukraine in the first round and still I'm very anxious about the whole thing, I'm simply amazed that so far it is going so well (if that nightmare can be called 'going so well'). I'm from Poland and today I saw a girl wrapped in an Ukrainian flag collecting money for Ukraine, standing in the rain in front of a supermarket. You guys hang in there. From the bottom of my heart: Slava Ukraini!
Former servicemember here. Served 04-11. I still remember how I handle my weapon. I still remember basic tactics and how to actually perform in the field.
Big difference though, when I was trained, I was trained properly. Not used for forced labor and given crappy gear. I attended exercises. And most importantly, I was not a RUSSIAN conscript.
I got out in 96. I'm still pretty good with weapons, can run 3 miles. I was in Russia in 94 during a port Visit. My observation is that their training is just fine.
@@ivan200804 - Still had a lot of the Soviet doctrines then and motivation was probably better. Remember that 1994 is 28 years ago and corruption has mounted.
@@ivan200804 One of the retired US generals had visited a Russian tank battalion a few years back on a good-will tour. I've seen his quote that this particular unit was proud they were allowed one single solitary round fired from their tanks per year. Other units got zero, ever. Their yearly "training" was showing up for photographs to prove they were training so the command could get those training funds and then they were sent back home. It's a wholly corrupt system now.
@@Methalec1985 That's what I call wishful thinking.
Might still need a refresher, especially if you need to get updated on newer gear. Or to be integrated into a unit, unit cohesion takes several months in any case.
I look forward to this each week. Good vid mate keep them coming...
I know you are dropping these on Saturday now but it's still more of my Sunday routine to watch. Great content as always. I would add two elements to the challenges facing the Russians: Leadership and Logistics. The Leadership does a lot but, as well as providing the vision and direction, sets the tone and the culture that feeds the morale. This has not been done well by the Russians yet and not sure what they will do about that. On the Logistics side, the extra mouths will lead to feeding, billeting and medicare issues which will also impact morale. My (complete guess) is that catastrophic failure at the front in winter is a likely outcome based on what we understand today.
Six months ago I was looking for fair and sober analysis of the war in Ukraine. I was already a Ground News subscriber but your longer format interested me. Can’t remember if my first episode was End Of The Tank or All Bling No Basics but I’m fairly certain I have watched every one of your Ukraine videos. Thanks for all of the work you put in. I look forward to every episode.
They managed to mobilize close to 300k to leave the country.
Lol
Dream on😅
@@philrowell1251 the count on Wednesday was 260k. On Thursday alone 7k left for Finland. These figures are facts on the ground. You can verify these numbers since they are reported by the countries these fighting age men are emigrating to.
Made me laugh and startle my dog.
So after the Moskva was converted to a submarine, her excess crew were redeployed as tank operators? Seems like a normal thing for a modern military to do.👍
Yet another full-bodied authoritative presentation full of convincing detail from multiple credible sources, I don’t know how you do it. I am reminded of a line from Lewis Carroll’s ‘The Hunting of the Snark’ -
“So engrossed was the Butcher he heeded them not,
As he wrote with a pen in each hand,
And explained all the while in a popular style
Which the Beaver could well understand.”
Keep up the good work.
Back during the Cold War I worked intensively with mobilisation and refresher training. In short, if the unit called up for refreshertraining/mobilisation was mainly the same personell as in the unit as it was active and if the equipment is neatly preserved in depots just to pick up you can have the unit in the field in a few hours and in good working order in a few days. Motorvehicles form depots is a major problem though, there will be huge attrition in the first days and you need many good mechanics and lots of spare parts. But if you try to create a unit by combining all kinds of arbitrary personell you will need months at best to get anything approaching a field unit. And that even requires the equipment is present and in OK order - and someone being able to train the men and teach the use of the equipment are present. Otherwise the unit will be more a liability.
yeah and that's also assuming that even if the equipment in question is at OK level it's going to be effective against modern equipment sure a bullet is a bullet but material science for personal equipment has changed massively so a body shot which is one of the easiest targets to go for may not even result in a serious injury.
fascinating insight!
@@michaell8000 Russia doesn't have enough body armor or other equipment or training. The FNGs are used for bait so that the Russians can attenpt counter fire on Ukrainian artillery.
Another good one.
I particularly like your phase "Darwinian training". That sums things up pretty well. I find your comparison of Ukraine's need to train conscripts and volunteers at the start of the war to Russia's need now, late in the war.
.
I saw some interesting interviews with "irregular" forces living within sight of the russian border. After they were invaded, they broke into Ukrainian military warehouses, stole what ever they could carry and self organized into small units of friends & family. Then they went out to "make trouble" for russians. Very little direct help from the gov't. Every month some of their "boys" go off to join the official army, and more youngsters join them. Their tactical knowledge comes from retired veterans. Their other expertise comes from local knowledge. Their "command hierarchy" is informal. "Experts" command "higher ranks" as needed.
They have survived "darwinian training" rather than formal training, and now pass on that unofficial training to new guys who go on to join the formal military. Seems like the Ukrainians and Darwin are on good terms.
Hopefully Darwin won't be as kind to the russians.
Keep up the good work.
Ukrianes TDF and irregulars were especially in the early days used more like guerillas using hit and run harassment tactics to help the regulars hold their ground.
These forces and the reserves of recently experienced forced (2014-onwards) could then be rolled into semi-effective defensive troops, with some being trained as offensive forces.
Meanwhile many of the Russian conscripts lack even this with the last real war being in Chechnya, aren't as motivated or even as well supplied or led. And so will likely suffer horrific casualties if used even as defensive forces.
Yeah, the decentralization of Ukrainian civil society is something many people in the West did not understand. It's one of the main things that separates Ukrainian culture from Russian culture.
I've been in the Norwegian Home Guard.
You need a refresher every year. The soldiers need the reminder which the refresher provides.
The training/green troops issue is a classic problem. A military is desperate for manpower so you rush green/poorly trained units into battle. It fills a whole and buys some time but they perform poorly and take heavy casualties. You still need bodies so you send the the next group of even less trained troops to the front. Putting new recruits into existing units may help as veterans can lead/teach the new guys but that maintains size, not build it. To be effective you need to train which usually means you have to be winning and/or winter shuts things down so you can focus on training instead of holding the line.
This could cause more defections, desertions and revolts within Russia
“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.”
It’s historically well known that new recruits in the Russian military have to pay for protection when arriving at their units.
God I love being Australian and hearing Australian humour and sarcasm spread across the internet. Hilarious