The Naval War in Ukraine - The Moskva, Missiles & Lessons
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- čas přidán 1. 05. 2024
- The Russian Black Sea Fleet entered the Ukrainian war as the unchallenged master of that body of water. Ukraine's own fleet was small and less modern, and the opening weeks of the war were dominated by news of the Russian fleet launching missile attacks and threatening naval landings that pinned down Ukrainian forces in Odessa.
But when the Moskva sank, the pattern of naval activity changed dramatically. Now, the Russian fleet stays mostly away from the Ukrainian cost, nervous of missile, drone, and air threats posed by an opponent whose own navy is mostly neutralised.
In this episode I look at the evolving war in the Black Sea, the evolution and role of the Russian navy there, the sinking of the Moskva - and what if any lessons foreign observers might be taking from the war at sea so far.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats:
The sinking of the Moskva, for all that we have learned, ultimately remains a mystery. I have not interviewed any of her crew, and I am not an expert in the field. I have tried to explain why I adopt conclusions on some matters and decline to make any on others - but even the conclusions made are only at a moderate confidence level.
There could have been more missiles, there could just have been some horrible freak accident involved. The comments therein are thus ultimately the best I can make using the evidence available - but as with so many other things in this war, I expect future evidence will reveal twists we do not now anticipate.
I'd also note there are a few typos that snuck through on the slides - forgive these please.
I'd also like to flag that the use of ground based systems at sea is not an unknow - though it is usually intended as an expedient. In some cases the ships involved may also merely have been transporting the systems, though that does not seem to have been the case in all instances.
Russian naval operations are obviously secret and knowledge presented therein is based on open source information - it is, for example, possible that Russia launches secret incursions against the Ukrainian coast, but the situation described is based on the best available information I have access to.
Finally - yes i know it's a stretch giving the Canadians credit for the Brits torching the White House , but the joke was there
Sources/notable articles:
Russian fleet strengths - composite but primarily Military balance 2021
US accelerating deployment of laser weapons for navy ships
news.usni.org/2022/07/26/cno-...
Weapon supply data drawn from open source aggregators - including Oryx and official sources, E.G for Germany
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-e...
Russian navy and PLAN recognition Guides
www.oni.navy.mil/Portals/12/I...
The Sinking of the Moskva by Christopher Carlson
www.admiraltytrilogy.com/pdf/H...
Russian claims on Moskva's sinking:
tass.com/russia/1438045
Turkey closing the straits:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:15 - What Am I Covering?
00:02:07 - Evolution of the Russian Navy
00:03:00 - Land and Sea Powers
00:04:14 - The Rises and Falls of Russian Naval Power
00:06:07 - Gorshkov's Navy
00:07:16 - The "Soviet Style” of Ship
00:10:00 - The Cost of Firepower
00:11:22 - The 90's
00:12:53 - Putin, Modernisation, Syria & "Kalibrisation"
00:14:45 - Pre-War Strength
00:15:46 - Russian Federation Navy Recognition and Identification Guide
00:16:13 - The Early Stages of the War
00:16:22 - Russian Fleet Strength
00:18:31 - The Opening Salvos
00:20:27 - End of the Ukrainian Navy
00:22:22 - From Snake Island to Odessa
00:24:32 - The Moskva Moment: A Moment That Captured Global Attention
00:26:53 - The Soviet Rustbuckets
00:28:36 - How Did It Happen?
00:30:33 - Moskva Under The Microscope
00:32:51 - State of the Ship
00:35:01 - Incompetence or Arrogance?
00:37:16 - What Did It Mean?
00:38:07 - What Happened?
00:40:19 - Emerging Threats
00:40:39 - The Missile Threat
00:43:27 - Drones and Air Threats
00:44:54 - Networked Intelligence
00:46:24 - What Next?
00:47:10 - Unmanned Systems Introduced
00:49:21 - The Crimean Dimension
00:50:15 - Force Regeneration
00:52:13 - Lessons & Observations
00:53:56 - Paper vs Actual Capabilities
00:55:36 - Soft Factors
01:01:19 - Nowhere to Hide
01:02:27 - Conclusions
01:04:01 - Channel Update
many thanks to everyone as always, sorry the release was a few hours late.
And before I cause an international incident over a joke - I'm aware that it was the Brits who burned the White House during the war of 1812, not their Canadian allies....but let's all give them a little team credit eh?
I really enjoy your dry witty jokes and overall knowledge not to many people know about admiral Horthy or the war of 1812 keep it up
I remember brave Canadian soldiers riding moose and flying geese storming the Whitehouse and I prefer it that way
America’s hat needs some respect so we can give it some acknowledgement for the team assist
Wasn't the Moskva originally a Ukrainian ship that was renamed in the 90's?
You’re going to give the Canadian viewers a run for their money when it comes to politeness ;)
A Russian visits Switzerland. In Bern he asks, "Hey, what's that building over there?". A local answers, "That's our naval department". The Russian laughs, "Really? What the hell do you need a naval department for? You people are funny". Piqued, the Swiss man replies, "Well,OK, but you also still have a justice department in Moscow, don't you?"
Switzerland does have a Navy, albeit a very small one, and they have access to the ocean by way of continuous rivers and channels.
@@SoloRenegade Brown-water navies don't get enough credit!
River Navies can play a significant role in modern warfare with their pontoon specialty
Replace Switzerland with Hungary for the joke to make even more sense.
@@shycracker pfffff that’s the coast guard
"The [British] Royal Navy would eventually be defeated by every navies' greatest opponent, the Treasury." Pure gold!
The British Navy would never have been defeated by Russia's 2nd Pacific Squadron:
Supply ship *Kamchatka: **_"Do you see torpedo boats?"_* No, not that there were any torpedo boats, but the British North Sea fishing fleet almost outgunned the Russian 2nd Pacific Squadron. Not that the British fishing fleet (not being Jpapanese torpedo boats) had any guns, but the Russians couldn't hit any thing either way.
It's a common refrain in Drachinifel's videos about US ships, pre-WWII. Although he usually phrases it as Congress not authorizing payments from the Treasury.
Politics sinks more ships than the enemy..
"Pure gold?" No, it's usually Pound Sterling, as in "pure silver."
Perun churning out quotes for the history books. I also like: when it comes to blue-water operations, swimming is not a viable alternative.
Russia: "We want revenge for the sinking of the Moskva. But also, the Moskva wasn't sunk by Ukraine, it just caught fire randomly."
It was sunk by special operation storm.
In mother Russia nature take revenge on you!
smokin again
Russian equipment does have a habit of doing that. Remember the Kursk?
"And besides we didn't want that crappy old boat anyways."
lol if they didnt why would you want revenge?
A former Russian sailor once told me that the Russian Navy is mostly “painted rust”. He had no reason to lie to me, he was a work colleague. He recounted thinking that hour after hour, while lying in his bunk, he thought about praying that his eventual enlistment would be up and that he could come to America and live a better life. I never forgot about that!
There are multiple first hand accounts in just this comment section of people seeing half an inch (12mm) or more of paint over objects like fire axes and pulleys for emergency equipment. This leads me to believe that he was almost certainly being literal in his description.
A previous ship I worked on flooded its engine room in Russian waters. Russian divers were called to do temporary repairs. When they were given a tour of our 25+ year old hulk including our dated accommodation, a few of these hardened ex combat divers started tearing up. We soon understood why, their “diving vessel” was a bare old barge, with a small hut for sleeping/everything, toilet was a bucket, another bucket was for washing, kitchen and warmth a small wood stove. All their diving stuff was in the open under tarpaulins…
@@smellysam I appreciate your anecdote and find it quite interesting, hopefully you won't mind some follow up questions:
Approximately when was this and what nationality was the ship you were servicing? Were you able to determine how typical it was for these Russian ex-combat sailors to have to deal with these accomodations on their active duty ships? Was their vessel with the "bucket situation" used to intercept and service their military vessels in need of diver-tier repairs? Did you see or hear about the 'painted over rust' and equipment that I read about? I am not a sailor or serviceman so I have no familiarity with this subject beyond a surface level (heh) understanding, so thank you in advance for what you can answer.
@@sqeeye3102 less than 10 years ago, our vessel was EU, civilian vessels on private contract. My colleagues with more experience said this work situation was normal for Russia but it was the 1st time they saw the divers get emotional.
The paint issue is a constant fight all over the world between sailors wanting to go fast and officers tearing their hair out. If it is more than one or two coats, I blame the officers for not inspecting jobs.
Rust prevention is constant battle, if the paint system is respected (chipping, acid, bond coat, under coat, hard top) the results are ok. But even on well kept vessels, rust can find ways, be found out too late and require heavy repairs .
@@smellysam Thank you for sharing your experience and taking the time to answer my questions, as a layman. I found it both illuminating and relevant to the discussion of current events. Stay safe and fair winds, friend.
Hi Perun. I work in government procurement. It was eye opening when you showed how insidious and inefficient corruption could be. You have made me happy to be that horrible red tape audit functionary. Also -" 1 hour power point presentation are fun". A sentence I never thought I would ever say.
Welcome to the club. I never thought I'd look forward to weekly powerpoint briefs.
You should get a name tag: If not for me: we'd be russia
His corruption video was the best one. His PowerPoint jokes alone in that video are priceless. Who ever would've thought the most reliable news and information in 2022 would be coming from a video gamer channel on youtube. Man CNN, Fox, and MSNBC should all be embarrassed and disgraced that it has come to this. Perun beats all of them by far!
It's surprising how a competent speaker can turn a boring PowerPoint into a weekly 1 hour long engaging video viewing session.
@@JB-pu8ik q
.
I don't know what is worse getting your flagship sunk by a nation with no actual navy or the Russian damage control that their own incompetence sunk it.
Having your flagship in such a state of disrepair must be more embarrassing
"Um um akshually the Ukrainians didn't have capabilities to sink us haha Russia strong"
>Ok even if that happened that implies the crew was *so bad* that it committed a naval disaster unseen since WW2
Bad damage control has sunk many of ship.
@@DogeickBateman even the best crew wasn't putting the fire out 50/500 extinguishers is a ridiculous level of corruption, beyond satire.
the level of disrepair the ship was in sunk the ship. Most stuff was not functional, including internal comms system
I absolutely lost it when you covered the PEJ. Perun, for context I spent 14 years in the Royal Canadian Navy as a mechanic, commonly called stoker, and damage control was something I had to be very familiar with. I do not have words to describe how utterly absurd it is to run all of damage control out of a single center. I spend most of my career on ships with half the crew of the Moskva, and we had 4 of what we called "section bases", which are basically what it sounds like the PEJ was meant to be. These are intentionally in very different locations on the ship specifically so that there is nowhere you can hit the ship which takes out all damage control coordination. The fact that they run all of this out of one place broke my brain enough that I had to pause the video for a few minutes.
Thank you for your service.
🤷♂️ The US Navy has similar DC capabilities to the Canadians then, but I've been through 200+ DC drills and not one of them had taking out DC Central and using satellite locations instead, as part of the drill.
Which comes back to the Soviet/Russian philosophy of firepower being far more important than survivability. If you stack your ship so no-one can move for missile launchers then you can't expect to also fit in a whole highly decentralised damage control system. Back in the day when the Soviets would have expected a direct fight with the USN (and USAF, and RN, and Kriegsmarine, and Marine Nationale, and etc) then this made sense - the ships were dead anyway, so why not have them fire off as many rounds as possible before they go? Not so sensible in the Black Sea fighting against a small naval power.
@@chooseyouhandle love boat.
@@chooseyouhandle The bulk of my career was on Halifax class frigates. That said, postings are quite short and the fleet is quite small. Therefore each of the trades ends up with an "everyone knows everyone" culture, much like a small town. Thus, when the Protecteur burned and people I knew came very close to dying in a fire it hit quite close to home.
I served 12 years as a British Warrant Officer in the Navy and I know for a fact when it comes to Sea power the Russian capability is nowhere near that of NATO. I am convinced we have the necessary capability to take care of any Russian threat…
Your reports are as always outstanding… This is the only channel I have seen to cover the naval aspect of the war. As an old sailor it was interesting to see an in-depth overview.
Slava Ukraine. Glory to the heroes
Have you not seen Lazer pig video?
czcams.com/video/aNEtlMSCiCI/video.html
10yr USAF. Everything we've seen points to a system of fear and force, rather than professionalism and any manner of accountability. It's hard to imagine a force operating like a gang, rather than a unit. From what we've seen, this applies across the services and continues to break my mind as how such a situation could not only occur, but persist for years.
That's because the intent of the Russian Navy is defence not offence like American and western navies are who are very Adept at invading other countries
@@odinikita4821 They didn't do a very good job of defending did they?
Perun: "Ships's systems don't do it any good if they do not work!"
Russian Admirals: "Write that down! Write that down, Sergei!"
Sergei: "I'm sorry, Admiral. My pen is not working."
remove the space between Pen and Is, and you'll have an accurate description of russian morale: they have no balls
Kek
Sergei: "And my hand has fallen off."
Admiral: "grab a new one dammit"
Sergei: "but Sir, you sold them all"
HAHAHAHA this is gold. Also I am Russian and my name is Sergei xD
56:10 “Hit Points” is actually the correct term! Though it’s been widely used in gaming since, it actually comes from WW2 naval simulation systems and 1 hit point represented the ability to endure 1 hit from a 14 inch shell
My level 14 Fighter can endure a lot more punishment than I thought then…
In a roundabout way, the Moskva wasn't a great choice for the region, in the nautical sense that the Black Sea is more or less a backyard pool noodle fight kind of ranges.
Sort of a case of, you're going to get hit, try not to blow up when you do
@@krissteel4074 AShMs are the most effective weapon against a ship, besides torpedos, so the moskva was kind of a sitting duck where it was operating.
So how many hit points did the Samuel Johnston have?
@@tarsxenomorph8845 Try the Samuel B Roberts xD
My late father developed the guidance system on the Neptune rockets. I found out after his passing. May he rest in peace. I’m so proud of him.
Presumably you found out after his passing because it was previously a State Secret and he would have had to kill you if he told you?
my late grandmother developed some great donuts.
Even more impressive back in the days before complex Simulation
Isn't Neptune is a modification of a Russian/Soviet missile?
My guess would be laser gyro inertial. These are not low cost systems.
The one thing I keep noticing about stories about the Russian army, is the lack of trust. In Western movies we always think of the military as a band of brothers, where people get incredibly close as they have to trust each other repeatedly with their lives. I know some people who are in the Dutch army, and that's what they tell me is their experience: it feels like they are a family, like they are brothers & sisters. But when I hear stories from Russian soldiers, it's all about how their superiors were stealing from them and disappeared whenever shit got dangerous, how nobody would tell them anything and how even their crewmates would steal from each other. Of course an army can't function if there is no trust!
Unfortunately, just like certain capital ships of the U.S. Navy during the 1970's. Thank you Pres. Jimmy Carter.
Perun actually has a video about how corruption screwed over the russian tankers in the kyiv assault
Roxy writes "The one thing I keep noticing about stories about the Russian army, is the lack of trust."
I agree with your view.
And this distrust comes from the top. *Putin is a crook, cheat, thief, and his methods of control are about terror, and he even rips off his own country.*
He doesn't trust his military, and they don't trust him.
Putin's system and methods goes all the way down to the bottom, as other articles and videos have shown.
This seems like a military culture issue, and a general Russian culture issue. We all sit shaking our head at how things are in their entire military structure, and hope the West never has this. I sure hope these lessons make their ways into NATO, US and other military training.
It does remind me of the very fractured and adversarial relationship of WWII Japan, army vs navy vs all others.
I have met and spoken with several older soldiers from Russia and former Soviet Union. The impression I got was that Air Force was ok and skill was rewarded etc, but that infantry basic training culture was quite sick. Pointless humiliation and abuse with a disturbing amount of sexual humiliation. Hazing rituals are a plague in many military but some of it can be described as bond forming. The descriptions I got were more like making it through prison.
I did the shortened military service in Moldova, a privilege reserved for those with higher education. Moldova inherited the military doctrine and culture from USSR, so I do not expect this to be very different than Russia. So, only 3 months of training, none in the barracks. Those who did train for a full year in the barracks would tell you the stuff of horrors - dedovschina, and the initiation by having the older soldiers woop your naked ass with a belt, humiliation of all sorts, having to clean hallways with a shoelace, etc. In terms of physical training, shooting practice, coordination between units - there's little of that, mainly due to lack of resources and everyone stealing everything, from shoes, uniforms, bullets, etc. Well... Everyone, except the fresh meat, if you were caught stealing, you'd be in a world of pain.
In my particular case, I shot about 20 bullets during my training, 7 blanks, 5 very low caliber. I was supposed to be a transmission specialist, but i only read about the things we were supposed to do, and we had no practice whatsoever - I've only seen the Motorola mobile stations, I've never hung wires for communication over roads or rivers, like the training claimed we should do. The retired colonel training us kept saying at every step: "You'll figure this out in the field, and also you will receive 2 weeks additional training should you be mobilized, god forbid". Mind you, i did my uni studies at the most prestigious institution, Technical University of Moldova. Probably at poorer schools they did even less trainings. So.. that gives you an idea.
You know, the fact that Perun is one of the few CZcamsrs who consistently gets more than if not double the view count as compared to his subscribers really shows just how informative and in-depth his content is
I think it's more telling how much of a quickly recognized legend he has become in this circle of study considering he only really started doing this extremely recently. Going from a videogame channel to one of the most widely acclaimed commentator and analyst of this conflict.
ZOV 🇷🇺🤙
@@mobiuscoreindustries yeah, he's one of the 4 horsemen of NCD at this point
@@leftismisadisorder3263 Man shatcho bih ahh up goofy ahh
No. It's a result of his highly researched, and carefully curated masking of what is propaganda. He gives the illusion of objectivity.
It's nice and comforting for the more intelligent people among us that don't want to admit their bias.
I have no idea what happened to Moskva, but the result suits us perfectly. But what happened to the flagship of our fleet, I know very well. Back in the late spring near Nikolaev, I managed to talk with the guys who served on Sagaidachny and transferred to the Marine Corps, which was holding up the defense on the Ingul River. They said that on the night when the invasion began, they managed to go to sea a few minutes before the place of their anchorage was hit by rockets. Their original task was to cover the retreat of the border guards from Snake Island, but this was essentially suicide and therefore the operation was canceled. Instead, they, along with other ships, used mines to prevent landings in the port of Odessa, and then sank their ship in the port. The commander of the Navy personally addressed the team and said that he could not order 150 sailors to simply die at sea performing an impossible task and asked them to provide all possible assistance for the defense of the city. The next month was a real hell for them. Russian ships could be seen with the naked eye on the horizon, there were not enough air defense systems to stop air raids, there were rumors that rus special forces were landed somewhere on the coast, our communications were jammed, and in those moments when the connection appeared, Russian propaganda was transmitted through it (calls to surrender, stories about how our government fled, Nikolaev fell and Odessa is about to be surrounded, oh you know, usual stuff).
Thank-you for sharing Edward, it really helps us to understand - what a nightmare !
Stay strong :))
Thank you for posting, Great Comment !!
You and your countrymen have served well, the rewards are coming your way.
Slava Ukraine !!
Even if the Ukranian flagship was prematurely scuttled, it is difficult to see how it could have accomplished anything before the Russians eventually got around to cruise missiling it into oblivion in-harbor. So giving it up before someone got killed trying to save it was probably the right call.
@@michaelramon2411 maybe leaving it in the middle of the sea with literally nobody on board would have been better, make the fascists waste ammo on sinking it
Smacks of corruption really to scuttle your flagship. If the ship is a potential target then drive it quickly up and down the coast using whatever offensive and defensive capabilities is available to her. Also the matter of the coastal vessels being easily 'captured'.
The whole southern Ukraine was basically given away to the Ruzz. Mariupol excluded, of course.
55:31 "Bullshit that protects reputations during peace time can cost lives during war time" Thank you sir, this statement needs to be stabled to the foreheads of every high ranking officer.
The 1990s in Soviet Russia… I was in Moscow at an institute that dealt with offshore oil and gas. The corridor was lined with reps from the submarine building yard at Severodvinsk ( Yes, that one ) begging for work. Traumatic doesn’t begin to describe the panic and humiliation of this elite hi-tech enterprise at the time.
Every branch of the military was suffering in those days. You could buy anything from handguns to tanks and helicopters. You could ask for training on weapon systems for a couple of dollars or Deutschmarks.
The SU ended in 1991, I was there in 1989.
This is the highlight of my day
Same
NATO propaganda
Highlight of my week, 😞(spent with people who are impacted by, but increasingly indifferent to the war in Ukraine). We need popular opinion to remain focussed to ensure Ukrainian success (however the Ukrainians define it)👍Slava Perun
Yup
Me too
The man. The machine. The lord of power point. And the man with the best space navy in Terra Invicta…. We present the Illusive Man himself…
Perun!
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] Got anything better than rapists peddling conspiracy theories?
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] The Putin-bots are out in droves this last week or so. Hope you get doxed. :)
NATO propaganda
I've been waiting for main videos every week for couple months now, and about a week ago I started watching his TI playthrough, and I love his presentation. It very much reminds me of Scott Manley (and his Xenonauts run), but instead of space science, it's military and politics.
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] Scott Ritter lmaooo
I grew up a Navy brat as Pops was a career Naval Intelligence analyst. Now I myself joined the Army and went into reconnaissance so this isn't even close to my area of experience, but bro I know quality when I see it and you made me do something I've never done before, recommend a CZcams channel to my dad. Great work man.
What was your Dad’s exact rate? IS?
The office printer analogy was priceless. But seriously, you answered the naval mystery for me. Your oratory skills never cease to amaze me. So engaging Thank you
Ukrainian here. As usual, fascinating stuff.
Some notes that are loosely connected to your video.
1. Fear of naval attack on Odessa was huge. Moreover, fear that Odessa will flip due to to high % of russian speakers was also huge. This is a big topic in itself for someone else to analyze.
However, I have relatives there and I know, for a fact, that our army kept insane amounts of resources there. They were expecting a massacre from air, sea, and land. Also they did a great job of hiding this force by making movements mostly during night time. E.g., you go to sleep, the next morning when you walk outside you notice that all asphalt is butchered because some tank or other stuff moved at 4 AM in the morning.
2. Quite a big % of all beaches were turned to minefields. Still.... People from Odessa are known for their sense of humor and freedom. So you will find pictures of people sunbathing in between mines. You will also find articles about how people blew themselves up because they wanted to have a swim... To be honest, the summer wasn't even that hot. You could manage without the swimming part for once.
3. Anyone who speaks russian/ukrainian should watch the documentary/journalistic movie about the - Kursk Submarine Tragedy by Dorenko. Whatever you think of Dorenko and whatever he said in his later years doesn't matter here. This movie was made when the russian nuclear submarine sunk due to some incident with it payload. All sailors died. All channels, all journalists, everyone in the country was told to stay quiet. This guy, literally, lied to the head of Channel 1 (Russian TV) and got a permission to fly and do some basic reporting.
He then produced a movie that explains how bad the russian navy was during the 90s. Interviews with soldiers, mothers, admirals. To give you a taste of how bad the situation was... that sea port that hosted some of the best nuclear submarines in the world, didn't have a computer class for its students and high ranking officers (captains and on) had no heating in their flats. They used self made metal containers to boil water and heat their flats/houses.
Yet the saddest part about this movie (since I have some military people in my family) was when Dorenko asked some soldiers about "why are the staying there... why are they still serving in the navy if it is some bad" and the reply was "because we are soldiers and we have a duty". This was sad to see... the abuse that this corrupt, messed-up regime did to these loyal officers.
czcams.com/video/KnfzQu2X97o/video.html (turn on english subs, maybe it will cut it)
4. We know, for a fact, that most of Moskva ship was managed by first year students/cadets. A parent of one of these guys (dead guys) created quite a scandal in the russian media by posting messages about his dead son. He was asking for information about the ship's status & demanding accountability from the russian government... well, the only thing that happened was that FSB showed up to his house & told him to stop this nonsense or else.
5. Moskva is infamous because it was stationed in Ukraine during the USSR collapse. The captain of that ship made a decision to re-position it from Black Sea to another russian port. He literally said that Russian and USSR are the rightful owners of this ship and not Ukraine. Bold statement since Ukraine actually manufactured the ship in the first place.
6. The ship was visible from Odessa. They were constantly standing close to the beaches to create a sense of danger. I believe they had complete disregard for our military and anti-ship capability. You should also add the fact that most russian generals/adminirals are in their positions due to ass-licking not war fighting. E.g., the guy on that ship had plenty of personal reasons to simply go around the Black Sea and threaten Ukraine to look "awesome" in the eyes of his peers and other commanders. This also happened to another "general" on the Kharkiv front. They guy that was commanding that front simply destroyed the whole TANK army that russia had there to create a sense of battles, victories, and territory control.
Not only this guy lost all of the tanks & god knows how many people, he was PROMOTED. Yes. The guy that lost most of tanks in the Kharkiv region was promoted... because his father was the higher ranking commanding officer (in that region) and he gave his son a medal (I think the last name is Lapin (Лапин)).
P.s., I'm trying to write my own course and I have no clue how you manage this amount of information with such consistency. I should really up my game. Great work!
*Adding a small correction. I'm writing a course on a non war related topic :) appreciate the enthusiasm that peole have, though :)
Great comments! Appreciate field level insight.
Thanks! I would really love to read your writings but take your time. By all reason Perun is pouring years of accumulated insight he has gathered previously into these, besides reacting to current events. Ultimately everyone has their own pace and approach and you're not being graded on productivity, what matters is the result.
Pity one can't just subscribe to a CZcams commenter to receive their comments :D
*people sunbathing on the beach in-between landmines*
Okay, it's official. You Ukrainians are the scariest fucking people on the planet. No wonder Russia is losing!
Hi Stan,
Great comments. I've subscribed to you for the day you can produce a video. What I particularly like is your empathy for Russians. We need to hear more from Ukrainians like you.
Long-term the only way Ukraine will be secure is if decent Russians are able to take their country back from kleptocratic, despotic, imperialist leaders. It isn't impossible, as can be seen from how Germany changed post-WW2.
@@thomasstyan2066 I have sympathy for some but not all. That movie in particular, it does show those old guard USSR military officers. Not the NKVD/KGB thugs.
Those were the types of guys that preventer the nuclear war. A single cold-minded officer didn't believe that US would attack and we're all alive because of him (Stanislav Petrov).
Pity that russian government managed to put most of these people either into the grave or absolute poverty. This is exactly why so many current high ranking officers are OK with bombing civilian cities, rapes, and killings... They aren't real officers. Just the uniform and ranks. Not the stuff that counts.
I think we need a video on rainy and snowy weather warfare since there's a lot of talk on whether Ukraine can liberate more land before mud makes it impossible to advance for both sides. Then there's the issue that Ukranian army seems to be better equipped for winter than Russians. Would that lead to Russian troops (especially "mobiks") freezing en masse in trenches or surrendering a battalion at a time just for a chance to stay warm?
it would be hilarious if the Russian army mutiny in winter because they were poorly equipped
When conscripts and their family complain that they have to buy own equipment like boots and camping gear and are told to use Tampons for stuffing bullet wounds you know you have a problem.
This is a great topic to delve on in the coming month, hope daddy Perun can do something on it 🏆❤️
Thats probably something we will find out in the comming weeks anyways
In much (maybe all) of Ukraine the mud season will pass as winter deepens and the ground freezes. At that point movement will be affected locally by depth of snow on the ground. Then when spring approaches there will be another mud season.
We can look to some extent back to February and March to see what Russian soldiers might do in the winter. There were widespread reports of untreated/poorly treated frostbite then. Russian soldiers in vehicles by contrast gave in to the temptation to turn the vehicle on while not moving in order to warm up. This is like lighting lighting a bonfire for an infrared system on aircraft, but perhaps worse still is that it turns burns through fuel while accomplishing very little putting a greater burden on logistics and running the risk of vehicles simply being abandoned because they run out of fuel which was also seen back in the spring. One would generally expect all this to lead to a greater likelihood of surrender especially in less trained and disciplined soldiers. Generally, people will choose to put themselves at the mercy of other people if the other option is an imminent death or maiming at the hands of nature. To do otherwise is a bit like a sailor from a sunken ship choosing to tread water until he drowns instead of surrendering to an enemy rescuer.
My father was a USN O6. Shortly after the wall fell, a colleague of his who was a attaché in a friendly foreign county was invited aboard one of the big missed cruisers. Obviously he was excited to go and marveled at such a beautiful ship. Beautifully designed with great lines that any sailor would love. The main take-a-way of his report was that ship was in beautiful condition, with fresh paint on every surface and piece of equipment. Most interesting was that most of the hatches over the various missile systems were painted shut. They could build them but couldn’t staff them consistently, and thus rarely able to train to a full readiness level.
Ukraine liked your video so much they gave you content for a sequel this morning.
Was it the special kamikaze drone operation on their 2nd Black Sea flagship?
When it comes to crew alertness and fatigue, it amazes me that ergonomics get CONSTANTLY overlooked. Being comfortable actually makes you better at your job!
You have been awarded 45 days restriction for the use of common sense! 😝
I do think it is a serious problem, though in my time in the Navy I didn't serve on any of the grey floaty things, I did have friends who served on them and some of the stories they told me make me shake my head to this very day! When things get rough it really is the little things that can make the difference, like a clean pair of dry socks, a shower, a freshly cooked meal that doesn't suck, and for the love of everything holy, a comfortable bed/place to sleep!
Yes and no, you need to create environment which keeps people alert and awake. Comfort especially after a long hours can be too comfortable. I designed a series of manual operation workstations as part of a injection molding plastics line. The original chairs I purchased induced a statistically significant increase in manual operation errors. People weren't as accurate as when standing. We switched over to a basic metal stool with with very minor increase in scrap over making people stand all day.
Ergonomics matter but not in the ways that you necessarily think.
@@otm646 agreed, it just goes to show that it’s an area where dedicated expertise and research can really pay off. Designing for crew performance and health while ensuring they remain alert sounds like quite the challenge.
There is a video of some Ukrainians that built a sauna in their trenches in what I assume are on the quiet Belarus sectors. They are very comfortable.
Meanwhile Russia jeers at their conscripts for complaining about not having luxuries like "food" and "water", and "clothing".
Perun: you don’t need to apologize for going through the history of Russia when it comes the military, especially what happened in 1990.
As a layman to military affairs, and especially around what happened to Russia after the breakup in 1990, it is welcome history and provides a starting point to my research.
Thank you for your hard work on these videos. It deepens my understanding of Russian capabilities and what a big mess Russian is in.
Stay safe, stay sane, stay Strong Ukraine 🇺🇦
If we were not interested in things like the history of the Russian military in the '90s, we would not be here
me personally i find russian history fascinating and have a lot of sympathy with them. You can't say that to a Ukrainian at the moment, but it's stupid to pretend that one evil dictator is his whole country - it's millions of people, their lifes and feelings
"Bullshit that protects reputations during peacetime can cost lives during wartime." Imma save that one. What a simple statement to sum up Russian operations in this war.
Also summed up torpedo development of the USN before WII.
I actually visited Vladivostok in the 90s and saw the red fleet there. It wasn't the red fleet because communism, it was red from rust. You could actually see it!
This guy pumps out PowerPoint slides like the Americans pumped out Shermans in WW2!
One a week? That sounds pretty bad for a war.
@@Awesomewithaz One a week per man? Not half bad productivity!
They say the Sherman was the right tank for the wrong war.
Ever heard of the "Fletcher Swarm"? USN could have won the war by throwing Fletcher Destroyers instead of Shells.
@@Awesomewithaz fair enough - changed it to PowerPoint slides 😅
When you have to apologise to your kids because you need to go and watch an Australian talk through a PowerPoint presentation
Just tell them you’re watching a gaming CZcamsr….
haha let the kids join in
I feel it could be a family thing, i mean this Australian keeps his saucy language to a minimum.
@@SianaGearz it would be great for putting the kids to bed and having a good time doing it.
Anders Puck Nielsen - a naval officer I'd definitely love see you collab with - has made a wonderful video analyzing the Moskva sinking.
Yes, great channel: czcams.com/users/AndersPuckNielsen
If you haven’t seen it already, Perun released a video interviewing Nielsen 2 weeks ago
Just hearing you talk about how the Russian black sea fleet is fairly modern and capable reminded me about exception to this modernity. The ship that was sent to survey the wreck of the Moskva using its submersible, the Kommuna, is the oldest actively serving naval ship in the world. This ship was attacked by Stukas at Leningrad. It winched a Royal Navy submarine up from the bottom of the bottom between the wars (finders keepers). It was originally commissioned to be a Submarine tender by Tzar Nicolas II. 😃
I hope the Kommuna is retired to museum ship status before it's too late. It's an odd, interesting ship with quite the service history.
"Moskva had a multi-layered air defense system that should have worked until it didn't."
Priceless 🤣🤣
I love the part where it was turned into a submarine
@@hindy101 I disliked it, because it does a disservice to what makes submarines special. Any ship can dive once. Military submarines have the ability to surface again using built-in high-pressure systems to displace water, thereby raising its bouyancy such that it can re-surface.
Moskva definitely managed to dive, but it doesnt have the integrated high-pressure fluid displacement system capable surfacing again.
That said, I am aware that it is literally (in the original meaning, antonymous to 'metaphorically', not the emerging definition - for future context this post was made in 2022) sub-marine as a result of having been sunk.
Whatever we decide to term this 'Special Marine Object', it's one more thing for Putin to regret about his failing 'S.M.O.'
Slava Ukraini! 💛💙
@@jamielonsdale3018 Indeed, I do agree with you. Though we must acknowledge together (and for transparency in the future) that the submarine statement is ofcourse hyperbolic in nature ;)
During more friendly times, I got to go aboard a Russian missile frigate. I was struck by the stupidity of having trip hazards built in everywhere. Pipes would stick out of the middle of a passage or deck. Also I noticed things that should be movable like a fire ax or a coil or rope, would be painted to the wall with countless coats of paint.
Remember...theft problems.
Also a handy axe may be a strong cutting argument in a philosophical matter of suicidal orders being given.....?
I've read a similar account of the ships of the Russian navy during the russo-japanese war. Lifeboats and their associated pulleys, ropes etc coated with up to half an inch of paint, effectively glued into the cradles by layers of paint.
I echo the comments on ropes being glued down with paint. I was on a ferry in St Petersburg many years ago at the Soviet disintegration. A warning to all… have a look at the davits before taking the trip….
Silly Westerner, strong Russian sailors don't need tools readily available in case of an emergency! They will simply beat the fire into submission with their powerful arms and their will to crush NATO!
Paint is not only a Russian problem. It was found when an RN CV was torpedoed at the start of WWII that the Floats were stuck to the side of the ship with paint.
The Russian government story of how the Muscavia sunk actually reflects more poorly on the Russian Navy than the Ukrainian story
Yeah, Id rather claim an enemy sank my ship than crew incompetence did. Of course then Putin would have to admit Russia is at actual war because generally other countries to not sink flagships unless you are in fact at war with them. Afaik, Russia is still keeping the falsehood name of "Special Military Operation".
Russia: It's not you whose got me...(explosion)IT'S ME WHOSE GOT ME!!!!!!
Ukraine: (😐😑😐)...Great argument...
Whether working out, cleaning my room or working on vehicles, your presentations help me get through the more mundane parts of my life while giving me unmatched insight into niche military topics in a digestible fashion. I genuinly thank you and everyone who's contributed for the amazing presentations!
This is the third video in a row that I've listened to today and I can't tell you how many things I've accomplished whilst doing this!
The RIMPAC exercises are a big reason that many nations have fairly good navies. The various "events" at RIMPAC are DESIGNED to find the flaws in both systems and strategy. The Australian [sub] sinking of a US carrier was an example of just how valuable such exercises as RIMPAC, RED FLAG, and REFORGER really are.
A perfect example is a French destroyer that recently got taken out in an event because of one sailor's geotagged Snapchat, even though the boat should have been completely dark.
Practice makes perfect.
Training and repetition are hard and expensive.
But true testing and asessment? even harder. Simulated threats are smoke, mirrors and assumptions... live firing of anti-ship missiles is not a good idea.
Buying ships is easy, mantainance is hard, operational readyness is divine in nature.
@@ricardokowalski1579 depends, because in training while expensive you CAN actually fire anti ship ordinance at actual ships, just not at them directly. The US navy has an unmanned ship they use specifically for this, where they do shoot live ordinance at it to test defenses, they just have the missile aim at a decoy tugged a few dozen meters behind the ship. In theory the only thing you can't "train" in live conditions is damage control.
@@mobiuscoreindustries I understand your point. My point is that if the crew knows they are towing a decoy...it is hard to make it a *surprise under pressure* exercise.
They may not know WHEN, but they do know it IS coming. The fog of war confussion is missing.
@@ricardokowalski1579 so to summarize your point and apply it to all warfare, yes, actual combat experience is better for troop quality than training. This is well known and was well known when King Pyrrus of Epirus fought the Romans in 280 BC.
On the other hand, well trained troops cut through untrained troops like a knife through butter, whether on land, at sea, or in the air. The difference between well trained NATO Navy and Army vs the untrained Russians is night and day.
The fact that the Russians has warships in the Mediterranean which they intended to use against Ukraine, but failed to transfer them to the Black Sea before they launched their attack on Ukraine indicated once more how unsophisticated the Russian war planing must have been. They could not seriously expect that the still NATO country Turkey would let their warships pass.
All these things really do prove that they thought they would stroll into Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government. Like everything the Russian army and state has done since the war began seriously suggests that idea any kind of major resistance lasting more then a few weeks really never occurred to them.
They thought they didn’t need them. Special operation to be over in two weeks at most, remember?
I expect even in a world in which Turkey had left NATO and grown close to Russia, it would have had to become really close and see some large advantage for Turkey itself before considering not enforcing the Montreux Convention and so possibly calling the treaty into question. So I can only assume nobody told the black sea fleet about this war in time for them to reposition, no doubt it was thought hardly necessary for this three day war.
It seems that the decision to invade was very hastily made, surprising everyone except the top brass. From the lowly army conscript rudely awakened from sleep at 5 am in Belarus, to the captains of the ships in the Mediterranean.
@@KarlJeager Crimean war happened in 1850s because of Russian designs on Bosphorus. Turkey would be insane to leave Nato.
It always impresses the heck out of me that you take complex subjects and ideas and convey them in a way that average mortals can understand. I also really like your sense of humour. All the best in growing the channel and look forward to future content. Keep safe & well.
Yep, I can heaR the amount of research in the casual flow of information. Does perun have research assistants?
To paraphrase Admiral Cunningham "It takes three years to build a ship; It takes 300 years to build a tradition"
Perun is the closest thing to a father I've ever had
He's just a guy talking propaganda about Ukraine war in his basement.
@@leftismisadisorder3263 Your name and that statement gives away your own loyalties.
@@leftismisadisorder3263 then make a video explaining what he gets wrong and why so we can watch your PowerPoint presentations if they're any good.
Oh what's that, you prefer shouting 'NUH UH' and sitting on your ass instead? Who'd have thought... 🤔
@@leftismisadisorder3263 first, he's a guy talking propaganda about Ukraine war in his basement while having _procurement and logistical academics and qualifications_
Second, you don't. Or at least no public evidence. Lol, lmao even.
NATO propaganda
Perun's coverage of 21st century war logistics completely throws out the idea that "war never changes".
Nearly two millenia ago, a Roman stated that "the sinews of war are infinite money".
War doesn't really change. The general public just forgets.
I've heard the phrase "Bolivian navy" used to describe any bureaucratic organization that either never had a real purpose, or no longer has one, yet the organization continues to exist, and maybe even defend itself.
Never heard that one, but it's fantastic.
Aaaaactuualy Bolivia has one of the best Navies on Lake Titicaca😂
Hey Perun, I have been very interested about geopolitics for many years, and I was surprised to be completely clueless about 90% of everything you explain in your videos.
I didn't understand/believe in the huge budget that went in defense. You helped me realize that I was very naive and had only surface knowledge about the military.
I'm very grateful for this flood of essential information to get a bigger picture. I watch your videos as soon as I see them and have time.
Don't be surprised about your success, people are starving for this kind of content/format, and you're one of the best communicators around.
i still think intelligence and diplomacy (two branches of the same thing) are worth even more: the biggest take for me of this war is, that USA KNEW 100% certain it was going to happen. Only Putin's closest inner circle, like four or six or ten poeple knew in Russia. That made all the difference, in my opinion, cos NATO got ready (not ready enough and wrong plans, but still) for two months or even six, they say, before it began. That is real 'intelligence gathering', to know at that level. That's priceless
@@rosegreensummer Same for me. It has made me extra proud of our military, and all the other things our government does right but nobody sees. Everyone hollers about stupid things our government does, and it's not wrong to do that, but a lot of things are done well, or atheist good enough. As a tax payer, I approve.
Just want to comment by saying Perun makes me proud to be an Aussie. Unadulterated analytic precision. No bullshit.
31:30 Well to be fair, some office printers do require a university degree to figure out how to operate... Especially the ones that can hide a paper jam well out of view of the naked eye
Very interesting to watch this right after the black sea fleet was attacked by drones. Crazy how Perun is somehow able to predict the future while warning us not to predict the future.
"Moskva, listen to me! This war... it's a mess. Life at sea is better than anything they've got on land!"
♫ The waves of the Black Sea beckon
♫ An offer you should accept
♫ You may be the prettiest flagship
♫ But your crew was most inept
♫ It may have been ammo storage
♫ Or strikes they could not prevent
♫ But there's no more use for moorage
♫ Instead you'll be more content
♫ Under the sea! Under the sea!
♫ Girl, you're in peril
♫ If on your barrel
♫ There's a white Z
♫ Up on the shore hijinks ensue
♫ Farmers with tractors come for you
♫ It's contradictory
♫ But you'll find victory
♫ Under the sea!
is there a recoding of this song anywhere?
@@gabrielandradeferraz386 Hehe, I'm not sure if you missed the reference... This is just a parody of "Under the Sea" from Disney's _The Little Mermaid_ animated musical. :D Here's the original song:
czcams.com/video/GC_mV1IpjWA/video.html
If you're asking whether I have made a recording of this parody: no, I have not.
@@rhubarbjin first of all yes, I missed it. that however ust makes it more hilarious, and makes me want even more to see a recording. im not a big fan of disney or the little mermaid but this is great
Lol
Goddammit, I started reading that in a Jamaican accent after the first sentence. 😅 Well played.
Also, on the conflicting narratives around Moskva, it was interesting to note that in Solovyov's somewhat recent skit where he complained about Ukraine going after symbolic targets such as the Kerch Bridge, he listed Moskva as another example. It appears that Russian State Media can't be bothered to lie about that one anymore.
I recommend Anders Puck Nielsen. He doesn't touch on the Moskva, but his latest video is on the changing Russian narrative since the mobilisation and bridge bombing. It wasn't that they can't be bothered, it's more that they are repurposing events as needs change. RF media rather than calling UA NAZI have switched to the more nebulous "International terrorist". The "International" part is important as it ties in west/NATO attacking and invading Mother Russia using Ukrainian proxy.
A. P. Nielsen also did a video on the Moskva, way back when it happened.
He's a former Danish sailor himself, I believe, and he attributed the sinking to the terrible man/machine interfaces of the Moskva's fire control and radar stations. They have zero automation and require a sailor to be staring at an unchanging (until it suddenly changes) screen without ever looking away. Just turning your head to reply to an officer can lead to a missile closing range with your ship unchallenged.
He illustrated his thoughts with photos of a typical bridge on NATO vessels vs. Russian ones.
He also commented on the differences in standard procedures in case of general quarters being sounded.
I found the video quite informative.
@@chooseyouhandle One man's terrorist was always another man's freedom fighter. Depends which side you are on. Mostly the term is used to de-humanize your opponent.
@@oohhboy-funhouse It's hilarious and horrible to see how the Botski Brigade constantly try to redefine what Russia's objectives are, according to whatever they're making do with at the moment. Hilarious because they expect people to believe this, and horrible because some of the vatniks and fifth columnists WILL believe it.
An excellent and informative summary of the Russian Navy Perun. Thank you. As an RN submariner during the Cold War, they were a serious adversary.
Never ever have I been so hyped for one dang hour of Powerpoint!
Potential future topic to keep somewhere in the list: middle powers trying to build a military-industrial complex. Case studies might include South Korea, Brazil, Turkey, and India, among others.
That would be interesting. To look at how some of the top powers built their militaries and then to compare/look at what current middle powers are doing to get to that level (or at least move up)
Australia as well, although it should have it's own video. There's a obsession with having bespoke modified versions instead of off the shelf designs.
Which waste a _lot_ of money.
And it's Peruns home turf.
[Mine as well].
@@casbot71 Perun has said he wouldn’t do any analysis on Australia as it‘a a bit too close to home. My guess is that he’s worried anything he says might get him fired from his job as a data analyst, because he accidentally leaked something classified.
@@Kaebuki or more likely pissed in someone's cheerios saying something they don't want to hear.
@@casbot71 He probably cannot, is not allowed to comment on Australian defence issues. I get the strongest sense that he works in this area for some think tank in Australia, as the skill set on display here does not manifest itself out of thin air.
I can also probably guess correctly as there is only one decent military think tank in Australia worth working for. I could be wrong, but I'd love to see a list of Australian Military Think Tanks. I think anybody who looked, would find it is a very short list, as Australia is not America who has hundreds if not thousands of the damn things. 😁
It's always the way mate, no sooner than you complete a comprehensive summary on the naval war another major incident happens. 😣 😂
every time perun uploads a video on the war, a significant development happens
Right? It's so inconsiderate
Maybe he should start daily updates!
Russia: We have the second best military in the world.
Also Russia: We can’t beat a navy that basically doesn’t exist
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] Lol at this comment, and the 1 like the bot gave to itself.
You won't be talking like this once those 300k reserves arrive
@Cultured Anime Waifu [Russian Waifu] 67k Russians say otherwise
@@sattm8230 Note how this single guy is posting a response under every comment.
Typical Russian troll tactic. The goal is to derail discussion, they're not communicating, words are weapons to them.
@@Paul-wo3qh 100k Banderites say otherwise
Russia only lost 6k
Ukraine took this personally and chose to change things up.
There is so much information in these presentations that I always listen multiple times .
I also like the long format much better than something thirty minutes or less.
I also recall some comments from an old sailor regarding images from a control room allegedly taken not long before the sinking. He noticed out of uniform (shirtless) sailors and people “not on watch” just hanging out in the control room. He described this as proof of breakdown of discipline and unthinkable in USN.
There's a video of such a situation where at one point a slightly older dude, probably a senior NCO, walks in to occupy a seat at a console and take charge of a situation and nobody gives way or jumps to attention or any sign of respect. Just leaning on bulkheads, puffing away...
@@dougerrohmer I wonder if stuff like jumping to attention are "Mickey Mouse" that only take place when authorities are known to be watching, or whether they are part of maintaining discipline and cohesion.
An opposite example might be remote patrols during the Vietnam War. While fragging officers got headlines, saluting them got the NVA and Viet Cong snipers to dispatch them instead.
@@warreneckels4945 I don't think it's Mickey Mouse. To have a core of NCO's to actually run things is a strength in Western militaries, and if these guys are good there will be real respect from the lower echelons towards these guys. Real respect will be manifested in many ways, like you don't slouch when the NCO is around. You don't have to have a bunch of toy soldiers jumping to attention, but you definitely don't have to have a bunch of subway hobos either.
@@warreneckels4945
If you read about military psychology, it turns out that clean uniforms, respectful exchanges between ranks, consistent structure and rules of comportment actually build esprit de corps. Not to be confused with arrogant and controlling officers who have psychological problems needing to humiliate etc. A modern officer on a modern warship will mesh the crew into operating this floating computer system. He might carefully explain exactly what he wants to hear in a technical situation report such as a run down of each system status, snags, current action on snag, expected recovery. Then next he might ask the actual opinion of the crewman on the procedure towards overall improved operation. This is a big change. In the past an officer could not ask an opinion. Now he can do so in a careful way, and command perfect respect and achieve optimal operational readiness. In the old days when the technology was crude and the crew grunt illiterate labour, you could keel haul and humiliate. On a high tech warship you need a meshed team. If it was true they had to hide the firefighting equipment to prevent the crew from stealing it we can sense the Moskva was the opposite of a successfully managed vessel.
I expect soon to see a submarine sunk due some sloppy actions.
Hi Perun, can you please do an analysis of Ukraine's likely reconstruction needs when the war is over.
That would entirely depend on whether Ukraine exists when this war is over. I think it will, but not in 2013 borders. I hope I'm wrong and that Ukraine gets it all back.
@@xenofunk1 well the possibility of Ukraine having it's full borders is likely, given with the war is going but let's not jinx ourselves. But I do hope Perun will do an analysis on reconstruction needs but also how the war impacted Ukraine on its economy and military after they calibrated to NATO standards. That will be awesome.
@@xenofunk1 good point, even though I would like to see a video on reconstruction, it would probably be more speculation then reality as we dont know what the borders will look like or what the cease fire/peace agreement might look like, if there even is one
I doubt it’s legal in any way, but I think all of Russia’s assets that were frozen at the start of the war should be used to Ukraine’s reconstruction.
It is easy to cheap & to destroy with bombs and missles , but rebuilding everything is going to be costly , and now that huge dam that Russia has placed explosives might be blown up too, the West should make Russia pay for decades to come., the frozen funds will be a drop in the bucket.
as brilliant a presentation as ever.... Like so many others have said, I can't believe that I am addicted to weekly one hour bullet point presentations 🙂 thank you for the wonderful education you are giving me
This is really an amazing channel. In-depth analysis that really holds up even after some time. One of my absolute two favorites on youtube, the other being TIKhistory. Thanks for your awesome work!
Mach 3 anti-ship missile: has to fly higher to reach Mach 3, and thus is detected at further range, giving more time to react despite its high speed.
Subsonic anti-ship missile: can sea skim in denser air, thus getting much closer to target vessel before being detected, giving less time to react despite its low speed.
thus, both weapons can be deadly when used correctly, as we seen with Moskva.
For extra points... time on target high/low attack to divide and confuse air defences
Which is probably the reason why the TB-2 was sent in. Its unlikely Ukraine could have predicted that none of the SAMs and CIWS were working, they knew the S-300 and their search and track radar was absolutely working since they likely had to deal with it earlier in the war. As a result in any attack they would have done their best to get this long range tracking system pointed AWAY from their ordinance. If anything it would reduce the likelihood of premature detection, and hopefully this new threat could not be responded to on time. Even the US had a few close calls where ASMs got within CIWS range before being detected and many times the only saving grace was that the CIWS was set on automatic engagement (something that obviously can't be turned on all the time considering the issues of the system sometime getting angry at random things). As far as I know none of the systems onboard Russian ships have such an automatic engagement capability so it opens up the weapons officer to become tunnel visioned.
Even with all the systems working perfectly, such a diversion could have at least enabled the missiles to get through the first line of defense and maybe even most of the second, but even then only counting the last resort weapons, the rotary cannons are no joke, and even the main gun could have been employed... Yet very demonstrably that has not been the case. An overwhelming high/low barrage plus ESM could have sunk such a ship, 2 missiles and a drone should never have. I don't like the Russians nor their navy, but such a waste of life through incompetence is beyond infuriating.
P-500 Bazalt (aka the SS-N-12 "Sandbox") is designed as a sea-skimming anti-ship missile. So no, it doesn't need to fly any much higher than the RGM-84 Harpoon during its sea-skimming cruise - one missile in a salvo will occasionally pop-up to provide terminal targeting data during the final approach.
The P-500 can do this because it's a physically larger missile than RGM-84 Harpoon - more internal volume to fit a larger warhead and fuel for the turbojet that powers the missile.
P-500 is 11.7m long x 0.88m in diameter, whereas the RGM-84 is 15 ft. long x 13.5 in. diameter (less than half in both dimensions, which means the internal volume is less than a quarter!).
@@zanaduz2018 volume drops off at the cube of length, not the square.
@@mobiuscoreindustries '2 missiles and a drone should never have'......This is a claim from Ukraine, not a verified fact. We don't know what sank the Moskva although both sides have a story for public consumption. The Ukrainian claim that it was sunk by only 2 missiles, both of Ukrainian manufacture, is so obviously triumphalist for Ukraine that it might not be entirely true.
Is it really true that the point-defence CIWS on Russian ships isn't automatic?.....not sure how they could be effective if not.
A while back I enjoyed comments from A Norwegian naval architect was much more severe in his appraisal of the Moskva. A takeaway I took was that the boat was a pumped ride. Image over engineering. One point I recall was that by packing so many of the rotating cylinder launchers it created a very large chamber vertically and horizontally so that ignition of one motor would overpressure the hull. The bigger a pressure vessel the worse the hoop stresses. If they would have reduced the number of launchers they could have maintained blast walls and positioned vents. As the ship was, it was a thug boat with gold teeth and sunglasses but unfit in terms of survivability. As if key people in the design process were trying to impress a dictator at the expense of known design standards.
I've seen very few people noting the underlying design methodology of the Moskva, so thanks for outlining. The whole thing was clearly built from the toys backwards, rather than standards upwards. An upside down pyramid, thick end first.
@@TristanJCumpole
And the inevitable price paid was apparently that it sunk with most hands lost after two small missile strikes. Maybe one day we will see images to confirm tbe death sequence. My favorite is that a missile ignited one of the vertical missiles motors and the over pressure damaged much structure and systems. That parade of sailors where no family member recognized any of them was further testament to Russia’s mindset.
@@richardkudrna7503 In principle, the brute methodology should be relatively sound if only the defensive layering is in place to cover the glaring faults it introduces. Especially those of zero redundancy where it matters, eg. damage control. However it was struck, it simply was in no condition - whether by design or state - to weather the damage. Paper tigers are both soluble and flammable!
@@TristanJCumpole
Agreed. If those condition reports are true the boat was barely seaworthy let alone combat capable. The most pathetic yet plausible was firefighting equipment locked up to avoid theft by crew.
@@TristanJCumpole wasn't the A10 thunderbolt built from the toys upwards? i.e. it's often described as a plane built around a giant gun. "Here's the gun, build a plane around it"
"The warship that had been told to go F itself had now been converted to a submarine..."
LOL! Perun is not without dry humour.
Great job great content. I love the fact that you keep a balanced perspective. We don't learn anything by telling ourselves we are the best and always right we learn by facing facts and adapting to them.
Waited for 2 hours.
Fiiiinally.
On a sidenote.
In your 1st vid about ukraine you said something along the lines of:
Time for me to go back to gaming videos ^^
Well guess you absolutly didn't expect how it turned out ^^
But congrats you deserve it.
Perun, as a naval nerd your presentations on naval issues are top notch. Keep up the great work!
Thank you Perun, for another well done video.
Looking forward to the next one.
The first time I heard this story, I instantly didn't believe Putin's version of events. I realized that Russians were so desperate to make sure Ukraine didn't get a 'victory' at that time, they'd make up some story of them just being incompitent since incompetence was already in massive abundance in the russian operations.
What I didn't realize at the time was how devastating to the moral and operations it was for the rest of the Russian navy. They didn't WANT to engage anymore. They were scared. The story that it was incompetence means they could still engage Ukraine, but the story that Ukraine could sink them... well that was a whole different matter.
I honestly can’t wait for the weekends because I know these videos are coming out. You do such an amazing job.
Training, training and more training. That’s what it takes to maintain effectiveness and cut down on the silly little screwups that can be so expensive. I’m not a military man, but I spent years organizing and providing semi-technical training for employees. I constantly faced upper management who thought one massive training session was enough and that no more was needed. We did that, right? Then there’s the issue of training fade, which happens when the folks who come aboard after a system is rolled out are trained not by experts, but by other people doing that job. It’s never as complete, but hey, it’s easy and less costly. All the while the errors and failures mount, but because the system doesn’t effectively track them as a cost, the top bosses have no clue. The work I did had nothing as valuable as lives and multi-million dollar ships at stake, but I absolutely see the similarities in the way the system responds.
Was in the U.S. Army Nationsl Guard, 1 weekend per month and 2 weeks in the summer. And every summer was like we were starting over even with little bits of refresher here and there during the year. And that was just barely establishing competence in our basic skills. To be at a standard to be deployed we'd have needed more months and an NTC rotation. Military skills are incredibly perishable.
Winston Churchill could never understand why the war could be in its third year yet his Generals kept telling him about problems caused by untrained troops…
@@glennsimpson7659 Laughing because it is sad. I read a memoir by an Airborne trooper at Bastogne (I think that's the on anyway, "Seven Roads To Hell") and he was saying replacements mostly got killed off fast while the veterans had built the instincts needed to survive.
"...folks who come aboard after a system is rolled out are trained not by experts, but by other people doing that job."
Yeah, I've seen that all too often. Seems to be the standard for management everywhere.
Perun - the enthusiasm and support of your subscribers and viewers is a direct reflection of your efforts and achievements consistently demonstrated over many months and based on sound knowledge and analysis.
Another amazing video. These never fail to entertain me and get me intrigued with whatever the videos content is about. Normally I would go to sleep watching power points but its something about yours that are entertaining. Most people that make videos like this use animation and other footage while talking and it still doesn't feel as entertaining as your videos, and I'm not even sure why! Keep up the great work, thank you for these videos brother.
There was a Russian video put out of the missile operating room although I don’t believe it was in the Moskva .
When they switched various radars on one was obviously not working so one of the operators just smacked it with his fist a couple of times .
Hell I have to do that on my boat occasionally with my fishfinder but the fish aren’t going to hit me with a 500lb warhead
I was just looking for a fresh-delivered presentation about an hour ago... I think I'm addicted to Perun
You're not alone with this addiction my friend 😂
@@T.efpunkt that's very pleasant to hear pal!
We need a perunhub
@@oddbod4442 let's hope @Perun sees this and renames the discord or something 😂😂😂
Honestly.. i didn't even think it was possible.. but your videos just keeps on getting better, and more informative..
Staggering job mate... Just stellar !
Another well researched and reasoned presentation. Thank you Perun.
Between you and Lazerpig, this has been my favourite topic covered in this war.
I'd never heard anout that report until the algorithm popped up LazerPig's video. Unbelievable, but also the only theory I've heard that makes sense.
@@j.f.fisher5318 The reported capabilities of the Moskva compared to the reported performance of the Moskva do not add up in any way so *something* is (as Lazerpig likes to say) a bit fucky-wucky about all this and like you say there aren't too many other theories that make sense. It will be very interesting to learn more as information filters out.
+1 for LazerPig! He and Perun are my favorite CZcamsrs in this genre.
Just wanted to say, between the analysis on this channel and the strategic and tactical display on the gaming channel, Perun is my favorite content creator. Thanks for the countless hours of content Perun!
Thank you for not being afraid to give unsatisfying answers if you don't have enough information. Clarity can be addictive as a drug so people like to simplify and make shit up just to make a simple and satisfying story
Loving your stuff mate. Keep it up.
Not gonna lie, it is HoI4 that grabbed my attention to just how impossible it is to build strong navy quickly.
And there it's of course much more simplified without issues of skilled workers and building entire core
PDX nerfed bathtub subs
eh, i only play millenium dawn and make south africa a super power
*'My ships don't lie' achievement hunt flashbacks*
@@sugandesenuds6663 Why be South Africa when you can be Africa. (Am also currently in the middle of a SA playthrough)
Well the Romans did build a strong navy extremely quickly... It was a long time ago though, modern ships are much more complex to build too and indeed require a specialized crew instead of rowers and fighters.
Speaking as an active officer in the RN, things such as Force elements at readiness (FE@R), FE@S (sustainability), Fleet Time Support Periods, Self Maintenance Periods, etc. These are all the meat and drink, the endless tedious, boring roulette of life in the Royal Navy for the support branches; the engineers who carry out the maintenance for and operate the onboard systems, and the logisticians who use their support systems to deliver and control the materiel to sustain these activities. It is boring. It sucks. It’s one of the least glamorous activities you could possibly imagine. It happens to be the life that I myself live, day in, day out. Even I hate it like poison. But nobody I have ever met in my career ever treats it with contempt or cuts corners doing it. Likewise Damage Control/CBRNDC training. Boring, repetitive, tiring procedures designed to prevent damage from stopping your ship from being able to a) float and b) fight. Nobody wants to do it but we all know how to and we can.
I would bet a pound to a pinch that the alleged report into the Moskva’s material condition was not only accurate but was the primary factor in why that ship was sunk by those missiles. The cost of equipment, personnel and spares used to carry out the activities I mention above with contractors like BAE and Babcocks run into the tens of millions of pounds. In a nation as corrupt as Putin’s Russia, the notion that there isn’t some degree of embezzlement and corruption undermining this kind of activity is something I find highly implausible.
A lot of this presentation is well-put and precise commentary on the state of Naval Sea Power within the Black Sea with Russo-Ukraine, but I'd like to add a couple of comments especially regarding the Moskva's Air Defence System just because I think it is very relevant to the role of the Neptune and Moskva's sinking, as well as broad comparison to how navies really handle being attacked by Anti-Shipping Missiles.
Before I comment on anything Russian, I would like to point out an incident with a similar attack in regards to the threat profile, the attacks on USS Mason by Houthi Rebels. Back in 2016, after an attack on a UAE Ship, the US deployed a Surface Action Group (SAG) with 4 Destroyers, including USS Mason. Operating near Yemen, the USS Mason was then locked on and attacked in the first of three engagements by two "cruise missiles" (we don't know exactly what they were, most likely Chinese built C-802, which is remarkably similar to Exocet), and fired off 2 SM-2s Anti-Air Warfare Missiles (not clear whether or not MRs or ERs, though likely MRs, I'll explain later), and an ESSM, a more shorter ranged missile. Not clear, however, was the interception of the missiles against the cruise missiles.
A second attack, again with two missiles, again was launched at the USS Mason, with also unknown effects on interception, though the US Navy claims an interception kill on the second missile fired at Mason.
The third attack, targeted with a final and third attack, saw 5 cruise missiles being launched at the Mason, with the Mason going full brown alert mode reportedly firing a radar and infrared decoy, and "several" SM-2 Missiles in response, with 4 of the missiles being intercepted by this flurry of AAW bubble. The final missile was reportedly done away by an accompanying destroyer's radar decoy, USS Nitze.
This is very much in stark contrast to the sinking of the Moskva, in which two Neptune Missiles managed to sink a slightly larger though probably less compartmentalised Cruiser, with no real attempt to even remotely defend itself using its Anti-Air Warfare suite. Why?
There's two critical topics to note here in terms of missile system design, one regarding the Neptune, and one regarding the Moskva's Air Defence System and Suite.
The Neptune, alongside a lot of missiles, are considered subsonic, as Perun points out, they are slower, and generally take more time to get to a target than a supersonic missile like the P-500 Bazalt / P-700 Granit / P-1000 Vulkan. However, subsonic missiles generally also fly much lower to the ground than supersonic missiles, thanks to the curviature of the earth. Much like the aircraft and helicopters seen in the Russo-Ukraine War, subsonic missiles generally fly lower to the ground to avoid the detection of surface based radar systems, just because of how radar works in terms of detection because the Earth is round and a surface based radar can only see as far out as its radar horizon. Supersonic Missiles have to fly higher to avoid colliding to the surface because of their speed, and so generally fly higher. They also generally have more range higher up thanks to less air resistance, but the main point in this engagement was that the Neptunes against Moskva, and C-802s against Masons, were subsonic "sea-skimmer" type targets in terms of the AAW threat. And I would heavily disagree with the notion that two Neptunes can't sink the Moskva. A Neptune individually carries almost twice the weight of explosive charge of the Heavy Common 16"/50 Mk. 7 shells, you're basically lobbing two shells from the USS Iowa's gun at a ship, to not mention kinetic impact and if not shot at maximum range, missile fuel being spread all over your ship if struck. There's photo of what exactly happens to ships that get hit by Harpoon, SINKEX, specifically HMS Boxer's SINKEX, and I encourage you to look at those and remember that the hulks there are not full of fuel, using power, and have no ammunition.
So, with subsonics explained, what does this have to do with Moskva and USS Mason?
Now, this is slightly going into speculation for USS Mason, we just don't know a lot about the engagements in detail, but we can absolutely extrapolate missile defence lessons still. The threat of sea-skimmers against an AEGIS-equipped Destroyer like USS Mason actually doesn't involve the powerful AN/SPY-1D Air Search Array on the USS Mason, more likely involving the higher-up mounted AN/SPS-67 Surface Search Radar to give targeting information on sea-skimming targets, and then feeding that information for the Mason to launch aforementioned SM-2 Missiles.
The SM-2 and ESSM, likely the SM-2MR Blk IIIB and ESSM Block 1, are missiles that uses what's known as Terminal Semi-Active Radar Homing to guide a missile onto a target. Using the AN/SPG-62s (satellite looking things on AEGIS Vessels), the missile is launched using Inertial Guidance nearby the threat, and then at the final stage of interception, the radars then will illuminate (point at) the target which the missile will then follow to intercept.
But this is also affected by the curvature of the Earth! Illumination Radars despite being put generally higher up on the ship, still gets affected by the curvature of the Earth, and will need to clear the surface to illuminate and guide the missile in. The SM-2MR Blk IIIB fixes this using a dual-mode seeker, essentially complementing this with an IR Camera that allows the missile to engage without illumination and use the IR Camera instead to provide its targeting data during the final intercept. The ESSM is not fitted with this but ESSM is a way-shorter ranged system so likely won't need to clear the surface of the water to engage. USS Mason's predicament was very much both a hallmark of the intercept capability of AEGIS Combat System and its missiles, and a grim reminder that, alone, ships are incredibly vulnerable to missiles, and require both the active defence of fighters and the passive sensor work of something like E-2Ds, which can feed information about sea-skimmers to ships to engage thanks to AEGIS' Datalink System.
The Moskva, on the other hand, is a Slava Class Cruiser, equipped with S-300F (Navalised S-300P, a Terminal SARH Only Missile), Osa with 2 Missiles per side of ship, and its AK-630 CIWS, is a remarkably lower threat profile in terms of shooting missiles at it, and is very much flawed in terms of fighting the Air Defence Battle.
S-300F is a very interesting thing onboard the Slava Class Cruisers. The illumination radar for the S-300Fs is the weird dome near the aft of the ship (3R41 "Top Dome"), meaning that even if all systems functional, you have to quite literally present your broadside or your stern to really engage any missile threats, because it can't illuminate physically through the superstructure. Even then, against sea-skimming targets, S-300F physically *cannot* engage due to a concept called engagement floor. Illumination Radars on average have sort of blind spots that at certain heights they cannot accurately get a bead on and point the radar at. For the S-300F/FM, it cannot engage anything >10 meters above the sea level. Subsonic Missiles fly around 2-3 meters above the sea level. So, quite literally, for anything other than basic Air Defence against higher flying targets, S-300 is unable to engage in terms of missile defence. This was a problem for the Soviet Navy, because whilst Harpoon is quite shorter ranged, Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile with its stupid ass range of 450+ km was a subsonic 1000-lb warhead threat to any Soviet Surface Task Force and the majority of its long-ranged AAW weapons were unable to touch it.
Osa is a very interesting case because its placement is also affected by its placement, that being it can only engage broadside or stern targets, and its radar (4R33 Pop Group) is also limited and cannot engage bow threats. Oh, and it can only track and engage one target at a time. And there was two missiles...
The AK-630s are very much a last ditch weapon, and one that's limited a lot by its system wide slaving to other Fire Control Units, and while yeah it might absolutely prevent the missile from crashing into your ship with maximum kinetic energy, fragments and fuel still exist after being intercepted by the 30mm bursts.
On paper, Moskva's Air Defence network and suites were very much a threat, but there's a very glaring point that due to lack of modernisations with something like the ARH S-400s and real lack of ability to expand the Air Defence weapons in terms of sensors, modernisations, etc, Moskva, and to a more lesser extent almost the entire Russian Navy, inherited the glaring issues with the Soviet Navy in which its long-ranged missiles being unable to respond in good order against First-Generation Sea-Skimming Missiles, a type of missile massively proliferated throughout NATO during the Cold War.
And to end it all off, remember that the Russian Navy during May had two Slava Class Cruisers with the same sort of problems of Air Defence against NATO in the Med, which even just minding the US, had a Carrier Strike Group with a very willing Carrier Air Wing with Super Hornets and Harpoons out the ass, 10+ Destroyers, and in the Atlantic another Carrier Strike Group and Gerald. R Ford just waiting for the Russians to trigger Article 5, and blow out the Russian Surface Forces in its entirety out of the water.
Excellent! Enjoyed it greatly!
Great job as always, keep it up!
Man, I love your videos. I’ve learned some new things and perspectives. I was directed to a new perspective after I submitted my, once then, perspective on the A10 talking about CAS. I have a new perspective. I love your videos and the people that you share them with. I look forward to even more.
Regarding the sinking of the Moskva, Nielsen had a very interesting analysis, hypothesising that 180s era cheap CRT interfaces are prone to user fatigue that may not show up during exercises, but that may end up doubling reaction times in long operations. The effect is doubled compared to a modern LCD screen and AI threat recognition and auto-response.
Add the probable lack of maintnance driven by corruption halving the number of active radars and defense systems, and the end result is actually not that surprising.
"Bad ergonomics kills"
That it is was CRT isn't the main point, but the way the information is presented on it combined with long shifts, where you have hour after hour with the same blips popping up again and again as the radar sweeps and nothing in the system notifying that something new has been added or is out of place from the normal pattern. Now do that for several weeks, 8 hour a day, and it is unlikely the radar operator is alert enough to get the ship ready for missile defence in the 2-4 minutes between first discovery and the missiles hit.
Even with a 1 minute each for threat recognition, release order, firing, hit confirmation loop, the moskva should have been able to fire its grumble twice, its strela 10M once and the CIWS alone had a greater than 90% chance of intercepting the attack.
The only explanation is that either the air search radar wasnt on, or none of the defensive systems were in operarional order.
@@egoalter1276 perhaps, but there was also claims for rough sea and the Neptunes (two HITS, but the claims I saw in the month after said more had been launched: 4-8 in total) have a lower flight altitude than the Harpoons that is lower than the engagement altitude of several of the radar systems. This means the missiles could have gotten fairly close before getting picked up and presented to the operators.
Given that the Ukrainians have intimate knowledge of the systems, it's not implausible they found a weakness to exploit, which in *combination* with other factors lead to their mission success.
It's seldom a single factor that produces the results, be it Hood, Midway or Chernobyl, but a chain of events that align.
I find Perun's conclusion fairly reasonable, in the end losing Moskva is a sign of Russian naval incompetence.
*"Anders Puck Nielsen"* channel that is, I guess?
@@larsrons7937 , indeed it is, video title as above.
Just when I think the quality of the research, analysis and it’s articulation have peaked, then this weeks presentation lands. Simply outstanding - fascinating, relevant and unerringly logical. Love it; thank you 🙏
Awesome work. Always look forward to the latest from you. Looking forward to more engagements with experts in their respective fields
Perun has blessed us with another amazing slideshow.
´Tis a good sunday!
NATO Propaganda
@@leftismisadisorder3263 cope
@@leftismisadisorder3263 Vatnik Shill, cope and seethe.
Isn't it not sunday in Australia?
@@urbaraskpraetor3316
Depends on where in Ozzyland Perun lives. It can still be Sunday. Or early monday.
Thanks again for another outstanding post. The rarity of what you provide, facts, delivery and analysis, soothes the anxious soul. Always looking forward to the next.
This channel is so good because of how it integrates history and current events. Masterful work.
Thank you for all the time, effort and dedication you put towards educating us in such a thorough manner.
As usual, highly informative and highly entertaining. I always wind up watching Perun's vids 2 or 3 times.
It's slideshow time!!!!! Drop everything else!!!!
Thank you, Perun.
Now, I watch.
☮️♥️♾️🤞
Hi Perun.
Excelent analysis as allways.
I've just sent your video to my nephew. He's a navy cadet. This might be handy for his training as a future navy officer.
Thank you for your excelent work!
Keep it up!
At last! Was waiting eagerly for this subject
Never been so excited for new powerpoint slides than now ❤
You always have the most impeccable timing this is exactly what I needed this morning