Is Raghuram Rajan’s Vision the Right One For India’s Economic Future? | Raghuram Rajan Live
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- čas přidán 27. 05. 2024
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Join us live at 9.30 a.m. on Saturday 2nd (11.00 p.m. Friday 1st in New York) to hear Raghuram Rajan talk about his vision for India’s economic future. “Where is India going today?” Raghuram Rajan asks in his forthcoming book ‘Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future’. Is it surging, having just overtaken the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest economy? Or is it flailing, having settled at a growth rate that’s grossly insufficient for the jobs it needs to create? By pursuing the ‘Chinese’ path of development focused on low-skill manufacturing exports has India got stuck in past strategies that are losing validity? To compete for the future should India instead focus on service exports, both direct services and manufacturing-related ones? If it chooses the latter route, what are the challenges it must overcome? Most importantly, will the present restrictions on India’s democracy constrain and restrict the creativity it must unleash to realize its potential? And, finally, to sum it up all, can India becomes rich before it become old? Join us live at 9.30 a.m. Indian time to hear Raghuram Rajan’s answers.
Interview has taken place at the most rightful moment as Dr is no longer seen on NDTV.
Thank you Thapar .Lots of important ideas gained.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
Thapper is son of traitor... So called General " thapper " his father who was Indian army general who surrendered before chinease army without any fight... And Chinese occupied nearly land eqal to whole state of tamil nadu. Also his sister... " Romila thapper " was the historian of JNU who made cock & bull story of our history... Which was implemented all over the schools of bharath...making slaves... Of nehru & Congress party.
CongreasParty work can be clearly seen by comparing India's growth history with South Korea.
Both gained independence in 1947 and 1948, respectively. Look at where South Korea is today in terms of its GDP, per capita income..
Shouldn't the party which ruled for 60 years in this 70-year-old country be blamed for all its shortcomings and why did we fall behind??
But shameless Congress now has the audacity to question BJParty, who has been in power for just 9 years! 👏
South Korea focussed on EXPORTING while Nehruji of Congress focussed on IMPORTING...with the slogan 'Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai' Congress at one point had let China dump their goods in Indian markets crushing all local Indian manufacturers.
Under this slogan, Nehruji gave away..
- Indian markets to China
- UN Seat to China
- 45,000 sq km to China
And then people question how did China's economy Increase so much so fast! 😑
Right bro, he is more by bookie not by reality. that is the reason he chooses academy@@Dk-uh4no
India's development path is unique in every aspect. It is an experiment never done before. Dr. Raghuram Rajan recognizes that all developed countries did not start as democracies, democracy followed development. He also laments the very poor quality of Indian education system which produces unemployable graduates because 15:00 India opted for quantity rather than quality. He also laments the malnutrition of children which will stunt their mental capacity.
He argues that India should leapfrog labour intensive industry to service industry
In 2022, Raghuram Rajan said India will be lucky to get 5% growth.
Now it's around 7.6%
Its fudged data
@@flewawayandaway4763When BJP wins, Its EVM and democracy is dead but when Mulla appeasement party wins, everything is fine.When economy under BJP grows, its fudged data but when Khangress is steeped in corruption, its social justice.When any media supports BJP, they are communal and Godi media whereas when any media supports Khangress and communists, they are independant media. Your narratives are pathetic and majority of Indians know it.
@@flewawayandaway4763 Really? What proof do you have for that? “Trust me bro”?
Fudging can be explained as such importing mobile parts, assembling them(THAT TOO thorugh PLI) and showing that as a part of your GDP
Isko bolte hai fudging !!!
7.6 % is because the Indian Government removed him from the position of Governor of the RBI. It would have been 5 % if he had continued to be the RBI Governor. Thanks to the Indian Government for taking the decision to remove him from that position. 👏😀
This man once said ,'India is dangerously close to Hindu rate of growth '.
If you were familiar with economics you'd know that "Hindu rate of growth" was coined by the late economist Raj Krishna in 1978 to describe India's low rate of economic growth between the 1960s and 1980s, when it averaged around 4%.
The "Hindu" here synonymous with "Indian", not the religion or the people who adhere to the religion.
@@shigraf I have no trouble in acknowledging my lack of knowledge on the Economics subject. However, if HINDU is synonymous with INDIAN PEOPLE & not with HINDU RELIGION then what did you have to say to the people who object to INDIA becoming a HINDU RASHTRA? According to the GREAT ECONOMISTS, RAJ KISHORE & RAGHU RAM JI, it would j then just mean Indian Nation not Hindu nation🙏
"Expert Economist"
@@Anp562 thank-you
Thanks Thappar for this interaction with our great Raghuram Rajan.
Great for what?!
@@ytskt he is the one of best economist on the earth.
Extremely interesting discourse!!!! So insightful🙏
Our Universities have been turned into political arena for left and right, not a centre of excellence of learning. I feels nostalgic seeing Dr. Rajan who once glorified and dignified our RBI and economy. Wish him long life and expect to hear his future advise. He must be brought back to India as Economic Advisor of INDIA Govt.
He is not talking about arts University
Iron attracts another as similar as knowledge attracts more knowledge! The people who respect the honorable and Holy Knowledge!
I think you don't know about iit , nit , iisc
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
only liberal arts and humanities. i went to a medical college, no1 has time for this political shit, everyone gets along and works
No one doubts India's potential, but the cultural aspect will let India down. The enormous corruption will limit India's future achievement.
also reservation
In the beginning Raguharam rajan says we should be focusing on labor intensive jobs, but then he goes on to say we cannot follow manufacturing model and we should be trying more for services. The reality is that there are many indians at various level of skills. we definitely need low end and medium skilled jobs.
It seems like companies want to move here for the high skilled talent, but not for the low-end and medium skilled talent. Why? because the rest of the logistics (power, land acq, labor, transportation, beuraucracy) are a nightmare compared to vietnams of the world.
If we need to have "labor intensive" jobs like he says in the beginning, we needed to solve the logistics problem first. All criticisms aside, seems like this govt has done a good start in this area.
Increasing skill in your workforce is necessary, but in the meantime we need to make it easier for "labor intensive" low end jobs, else we will have greater disparity. I don't see Dr. rajan making this connection anywhere/
The second gap in this explanation is that upskilling is NOT JUST school/university education.. For all his criticisms of assembly manufacture, if you were in the manufacturing industry, you would realize that it is actually an upskilling endeavor. The more manufacturing (even low skilled ones) you have, the easier it is to upskill your workforce and adjacent industries. A simple example is maruti. The entire approach of slow indigenization resulted in india becoming a automotive parts supplier. We have a skilled workforce in that area now. So we may subsidize a strategic industry now which just packages chips, which is low end. But it upskills the labor in 5-10 years so much so that low end chip manufacturing will come to us. Just as it happened for samsung/lg in south korea in the 90s. Now they ran with their upskilled workforce and did their niche enhancements for memory chips making them a leader in that area.
Even if chip industry doesn't workout completely, actually $2-5b is cheap investment if it triggers adjacent industry development (there are many adjacent industries from software to chemicals to materials, etc).
While his macro economic observations are very valid, I find his criticisms of industry policy completely detached from real world.
@SantoshKolenchery Absolutely bang on. To the point and very valid arguments. Am also a phd scholar working on Global Value Chains. What RRR says about Global Value/Supply Chains, Smile Curve are very true! But the point is that the high-value addition stages of production are Service-oriented, high-skilled and capital-intensive in nature relative to the low-value addition stages of Assembly and Manufacturing!
RRR says that we should focus on Labor-Intensive industries for creating employment opportunities for our working force, but the solutions which he said towards the end of the video are mostly capital-intensive in nature! Can he guarantee that focusing on the High-Value addition High-skilled Service-Oriented stages of production creates more jobs as he was saying in the beginning ? It's not possible!
This is the best response to RaRa’s book and assertions.
He is selling 1990-2000 neoliberal American economics model to India. His criticism appears to be politically motivated. Especially, with upcoming general election in 2024.
The author’s recommendation that India invest in education to develop a skill workforce, but that is a generational project. What India needs are solutions for next 5-10 years. It should definitely invest in education, but also invest in infrastructure to create niche manufacturing industries. I feel the prescription given by RaRa is too narrow, too small of an aperture…India needs to walk and chew gum at the same time.
He is also criticizing present government for being authoritarian, but that has been true of some past Indian governments. We did flirted with authoritarianism in the mid-1970s.
Also, author suggests that Indian democracy at the beginning of the country was the problem. I think that is a very lazy analysis that has been repeated by many for last 20 years or so. It misses the point that the East Asian countries were small and rather homogenous. A heterogeneous India with authoritarian government at its inception would not have survived. That said, the current government is somewhat authoritarian in her approach and making decisions on many of the long pending issues, which RaRa does not seem to approve of. So, it seems he is contradicting himself.
Lastly, I am disappointed by the interviewer. It seems this was an echo chamber. None of RaRa’s theories, assertions and prescriptions were challenged.
The true gem which MMS found, Mr Rajan's words are true to the point. We all anticipate governments take him seriously.
The problem is our politicians are incapable of imagining the future of the country but they are very good at making a bright future for themselves.
Absolutely 👍 appreciate wit and reality. 🙏
Are you talking about Nitin gadkari sir, Ashwini sir and goyal sir?
@@Iamroyl283 I'm referring to the entire political class with minor exceptions here and there.
@@Asterix0110 ok
Just like congress did
India's 2022-23 LFPR is 58.9% for age group 15-59, not 40% as he says in the interview. As an economist, one would expect RRR to know this! And a good part of the remaining 41.1% is because many women don't work by choice!
Dr. Raghuram Rajan should be made finance minister of India.
Would be a dream come true
This man was absolute disaster during his tenure
That will be nightmare.
Disgusting he became finance minister India become British colony
LMAO. You must be joking. Keep Rajan in Chicago where he can't do any damage to the Indian economy. This guy is a joke.
🤓🤓
I think Mr Rajan’s insights into the Micron FDI is very short sighted. When a large plant is built, a complete ecosystem is created and usually creates a rippling effect. It surprises me that so much media attention is being given to him? The full job impact can be 20-30x plus it lowers the cost barriers to bring other companies in the same industry. India has a small window to capitalize on its demographic trends and the global political landscape.
Karan Thapar is capable to conduct high intellectual discussions.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!! Tapad is bigoted mind!!
Lol
Great sarcasm
A very good analysis of Dr. Rajan's book...no doubt thought provoking.... supplemented by some good questions raised by your good self.
All credit goes to Raghuram Rajan’s guru “Politics-in-your-pants” Pandit Rahul ji.
Raghuram,
Experience as an Economist = 100% , performance as an Economist = 0%
Experience as a politician. = 0 % , performance as a politician. = 100%
That's him in nutshell
In my opinion India is messing with its present and future in its try to correct the past. Instead, India should focus on the golden egg of this era fueled by digital economy rather than chasing the lost opportunity.
After Dr Manmohan Singh ,Raghuram Rajan is the man to lift India out of the darkest quagmire of complete economic derailment.At this critical juncture of confounded crisis we look forward to his path breaking guidance and services. Such a far sighted sagacious man of utmost austerity is a rare asset for any regime except a ruthless regime of arrogant autocracy.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!! Manmohan was nothing better than a chained dog to Italian maino!!
Actually there was another consultant genius in the whole group; few know him today. It was Prof Mrinal Dutta Chowdhury ( MDC) an MIT fellow, teaching then at Delhi School of Economics (DSE) . He was the key architect of all welfare driven policies of the government at a time when most of the advanced nations had shocks of meltdown, but India went unscathed.
😂😂
Do u seriously think service jobs can provide mass employment when most of routine service jobs will go to AI.
The reason why service developed after manufacturing in the rest of the world is becuz nations CAN'T develop education quality without steady surplus income (from manufacturing)
Just like manufacturing requires surplus from agriculture.
Very informative and necessary discussion for a contemporary indian audience
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
Excellent course correction suggestion a must. Thanks Professor & Karan.
A must watch for all.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
Rahu Ram Rajan is a great Economist
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
Good discussion. Dr. Rajan's presription for a rich India is a bitter pill to swallow in the short term but would help leapfrog over other countries in the long term. For this India needs good governance and selfless politicians. Btw, US is trying to bring back manufacturing to avoid the bottlenecks it faced during COVID. Too much reliance in any country to do your stuff can lead to calamitous situations.
It was all a bit contradictory if you ask me. On one hand he says we shouldn't focus on manufacturing saying it is low-end but on the other hand says we are already doing high-end stuff. If we already are, I'm sure we'll expand on that. Unfortunately India isn't all highly educated/skilled people. You need jobs for all kinds, not just the highly skilled ones. In fact his stupid ideas will ensure only a certain elite get work, and the others find it more difficult to find jobs.
@@Bharat_P If you listened to what he was saying, he mentioned how we should first focus on making health and education for children and current youth, impeccable. That’s how we will get elites across the whole country.
Elites exist by a mere chance in this country. We need to learn how to manufacture “the elites” in this country at a large scale.
Edit: also, calling him stupid, just makes you look stupid and that’s it. This person is a distinguished professor of finance and economics in the University of Chicago (the most elite institution on the planet for economics), has been the Governor of RBI and the Chief Economist and Director of research at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He is the last person I would call stupid. In fact the current PM would better fit the title you’re trying to give to this man.
Think before you speak.
@prabhakarkrishnaswami4148 Yes, US is trying to now spread its manufacturing projects to different countries, and also bring some of the them to the US itself, but that is AFTER they successfully dominated the world in the top end i.e. the intellectual designing part of the game.
Now it already has the “elites” designing and creating the best of the best, so it has the money and the intellectual capital to bring back manufacturing in the best way possible, and that is not the labor intensive “Chinese or Indian strategy”.
US now has the capital and brain power to bring a much more advanced and automated form of manufacturing, very different from China’s low paid labor intensive model.
I 100% agree with Dr. Rajan. The Chinese model is not the way India can become developed. We need to succeed in the IP first, then think about other low output processes.
@@shubhamcweb Statistically, NOBODY has achieved that, not even countries like the Nordics. It's fair to say that everyone in the population takes a normal distribution curve in terms of educational performance OR achievements which can be measured.
FYI, If we are optimistic and assume we have plenty of elites in the country, I'm guessing that would be least 2-5% of the population (in terms of top notch education and potential), i.e.: 28-70 million people. Irrespective of what you do, that's all you'll get. I'm guessing 20% of that would be recent graduates with upto 5 years of work-ex OR 5.6-14 million people.
Now compare that to all salaried employees, i.e.: 400 million, or even better, white collared salaried jobs which is about 25% of that, i.e.: about 100 million people. RR is claiming we can/should ignore or stay away from manufacturing and that the service sector would create another 400million white-collared jobs which is total nonsense. He's clearly biased against India or on the payroll of people who are baised. Why else would he ask silly questions like "Why should India want to be a superpower?".
As regards RR's credentials, I'd call it an appeal to authority/ logical fallacy where your argument is judged solely based on their status or position rather than the strength of their reasoning or evidence. For example, Raghuram Rajan has incorrectly predicted both world and Indian growth rates for over several years now, enough to make any predictions or advice he gives unreliable.
So yeah, you think before you speak. RR is probably on the payroll of of the CCP and his claims of being able to create hundreds of millions of high-end service sector jobs are are as bogus as his advice.
@@Bharat_P Dude, I'm not going to argue with you.
Just remember, when you're in a literal shithole, you need to do things that no one has done. You need to embark on goals that no one has thought of. China is a live example of that. They didn't copy anyone, nor did they think "oh, no one has gone from a literal shit hole to a developed nation, so surely we won't be able to."
Anyways, don't bother to reply back to me. You seem rather well versed with economics, I am no one to argue with you.
The message remains the same 75 years later
The words are lovely, dark and deep, but I have mines to go before I sleep
India IT and services sector grew without a helping hand from Governemt. So I do expect that would be the case going forward. But the issue is only max 5% of Indians could afford to work in these services at best of times. How can the rest get employed. Only a part of the answer would be agriculture then where is the rest coming to come from?
Very informative interview, education and negotiating with countries for more opportunities for Indians is the key for India.
44 minutes well spent. Thank you for such educative discussions 🙏🏼
Thank you for this interview. Two very knowledgeable people who care for our country & want our youth to excel & outshine, at least if not outnumber the others 👌🏻
Absolutely lovely interview. Many of today's social media population and Govt. supporters would not have the intelligence to understand the point being blind to cheering of India's economy growing. Not that one should not be happy about that, but true sensible and intelligent Indian should also ponder, is this growth in real sense, does it convert to benefit of the common and poor people of India too. As Raghuram rightly pointed out, the most important thing for development of a country is to ensure providing jobs, earnings for survival to the maximum population majorly which are either unskilled or semi-skilled. We do all the talk of Made in India, and that world market is eager buying Made in India products, even the world's best products are going to be manufactured in INdia and so and so. Thats really great news, but how much employment have these things been able to generate. Even the skilled people are not sure of getting jobs and they are scouting all over abroad for jobs. Education in India once was supposed to be one of the best and that too cheaper, but now all the better earning family kids are travelling abroad to study and education in INdia is so damn costly that people are forced to have only one child, while education should have been absolutely free till graduation atleast so that the country gets truely developed and grown. Not everybody can be a Gujarati businessmen to earn money even without education.
RR is highly negative man when it comes to current government.
Good day 🎉
Bhakt speaking. You should challenge his ideas rather than making a personal remark/attack
How many jobs has your vishwa guru created? 😂
RR is not kalava aund bhakt. He knows what is good for the people of India.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
@@ckjaidev chatukar spotted!! What can you expect from crooked mind like hagu Rajan.. before he was we won’t grow more than 3%.. now he says we are growing at 7% because we are poor!!
Rajan is very sincere whenever on deputation.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
@@Dk-uh4no Your observation, sir, reads like citation for the next year Nobel prize for economics. Such is his sincerity.
@@sm9214 a blind chatukar won’t see the facts!! Hagu ragan should be made FM of paxtan!!
Ulster Institute estimate of IQ by country. PRC 104 India 76. That does make a difference as well. Not at the early industrial phase but for sure in the developed industrial stage.
The bright Indians left for greener pastures and never returned.
Absolutely. IQ is the making or breaking of society & civilisation. Palestine has 76, Israel 93. The superior IQ culture dominates the lower IQ society.
@@jimmylam9846 IQ dispersion is very high in India, it means a few people are very bright. IQ dispersion is low in East Asia, meaning the majority of the population shares a similar IQ. Now If East Asia IQ is 100+ with low dispersion then the society is highly intelligent.
Indeed insightful. Infact i went on to listen all the interviews about this book promotion, be it at The Wire, The News Minute, CNBC TV18 , NDTV Profit, The Hindu, Bangalore International Centre, Mojo Story, Blinkist etc. And i literally loved listening each minute, the same way i love listening Mr Jaishankar. He has made very good valid points that should be raised openly. It's true that most if the leaders be it of BJP, Congress, AAP and others won't be there in after 2050-2070 something. Meaning they won't be there to hold accountable, and our nation wiil be struck back and our future generations will blame us. Let's not have that attitude to not to listen each other and say no no my way is the only and the best way. Have the debate, maybe we can find things we like in each other's points, and then build a stronger policies. Government kisi ki b ho, lekin bhalai sabki honi chahiye.
I think he has really good points.. our govt should set aside its dislike towards him because of his politics & accept & implement his ideas as what i c is both govt & Dr Rajan have same goals for the country..
Raghu Ram at the beginning says for fast growth there needs an authoritarian system and in the later half he says you need democracy, civil society. And Karan lets him go
First person I have heard that says we shouldn't manufacture but scale up services.
He is essentially talking about running a western Europe economy in low literacy high population region. 😳
What he is trying to say is we won't be able to maximise our benefits from our population dividend by investing in manufacturing as the return on investment in manufacturing is not that high i.e. our population would grow old before we become rich i.e the per capita income will remain low even though the size of the entire economy might increase. And we all know that with an old population and not high enough income the future generation will not have a safety net and the govt will not be able to fund pension schemes. That is why he is asking to invest in the service sector to gain more money. And the numbers and data support him. China is facing a similar issue of funding pension and helping their youth and now has invested heavily in service sector.
As far as your point of literacy is concerned, he has emphasised multiple times on the need to invest in education and targeted delivery of social welfare schemes to uplift the poorest of the poor.
Thank you for another illuminating discussion.
brilliant and very apt views looking forward to a bright and developed India 2047 . Thanks Dr R Rajan and Mr Lamba , and Karan Tapar
Excellent, must watch interview. The million dollar question is whether this regime is open minded enough & intellectually willing to appreciate the very valid points made & do a course correction.
Given that we have a PM who is highly insecure (thanks to his lack of education), a party that is spectacularly/brazenly communal in nature & oligarchy/crony capitalism growing by leaps & bounds, it would be nothing short of a miracle if a liberal ethos is encouraged in thought & deed.
The only solution seems to be a change in govt in 2024. Given ECI’s & most constitutional bodies track record in the past 9.5 years, even this seems impossible.
To add to the discussion - if we still look at the Manufacturing sector it should be in the SME sector, but concentrating on reducing our imports.
Amazing interview. So much to learn about how present shapes the future.
That is genius dr raghuram rajan .. a big fan of him... he speaks black and white .. mr thapar dr raghuram rajan is not like you guys typically left Librando congressi wine sipping Delhi elites feeling left out as no more non hob for you in power corridor....
Dr rajan is genius and a good heart for India ..... please also learn from him mr thappar ....
Dhanyavad 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
We must not forget that Indira Gandhi stopped "expansion and modernization" of private sector industry which actually needed 1991 type of liberalisation around 1972 !!
This created havok in the employment and with the health of the economy, pushing us back instead of accelerating the growth !
I struggle to understand , how is India's present trajectory any different than what the good Dr suggests it should be ?
Please read: Small is Beautiful-Economics as if People Mattered, by E F Schumacher.
Thank You Karan for this interview
Raghurama Rajan as RBI governer gave high inflation in the country.
Few points for Rajan to take into account:
1.) China's growth rate was higher than India's current, but it is a communist and there it is easy to roll out policy. For e.g. Govt could not roll out Farm-bill because section of farmers opposed it.
2.) Apple create idea, design but then the jobs are in China or Vietnams and now in India. How many does apple employees in US ? So this high paying job will infact further lower employment rate.
Take for e.g. Bangladesh, it created low paying jobs for all in textile, so their employment rate is high, their per-capita is also high.
3.) Authoritarian economies later become democratic:: Chine grew but it is more authoritarian....your logic does not apply.
4.) On scaling value added ladder:: This will require very high numbers of skilled forces ? A designer also needs experience in mfg, from where will you bring that number and skills ?
It takes 15 yrs to become engineer and further 6 ~ 10 yrs of very good experience to befor one can be a value added workman. How will you upscale the 60% of labour who is employed in farm, or low scale mfg.
So an easy way is to scale mfg so that farm labour can be pushed to industries and later-parallelly skill your workforce to prepare for future high-level jobs. This is what Govt is doing.
Agreed on his suggestion on malnutrition linked with healthy labour.
Yes we need to do much more.
Development of China become a force 1980 onward, and that time we had not taken proper micro and macro level development programmes.
Since last decade this scenerio has changed in our favour. This rapid growth will ensure much needed growth in employment sector as well, hence we are on right path.
As much as I respect RaRa, the fact that he said our economy is growing at much faster rate because we are poorer just doesn't make any sense. If that is the case, India was growing slower under his tenure when India was even poorer and that too when the world had a favourable economic conditions post GFC. Now, the fact that we have growing above expectations in an economic environment where we just came back from COVID and currently going through two wars with Fed interest high af in US and slowing EU... We have to give credit where it is due!
There is a growing inequality, yes. There is an unemployment factor. Yes. But, the analysis that we are poor and therefore we are the fastest doesnt make sense. If that si the case, every country in Africa should be growing as fast as us. But, they are not. Expected better analysis from someone as credible as him.
He is Just like coach from dhangal😂.
"We will be lucky if we get 5% growth next year"
-quote by the legend 😂
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
😂😂😂😂
Most sensible and urgent
Very important to spread the dream
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
Wonderful way of elucidating the different paradigms of economics.
44 minutes well spent 🎉
Great to listen to Dr RR always, here in deliberation with media expert Karan - very insightful on how one can grow economy with majority employment to unemployed
👍👍
It was all a bit contradictory if you ask me. On one hand he says we shouldn't focus on manufacturing saying it is low-end but on the other hand says we are already doing high-end stuff. If we already are, I'm sure we'll expand on that.
Unfortunately India isn't filled with highly educated/skilled people, and never will be. You need jobs for all kinds, not just the highly skilled ones. In fact his stupid ideas will ensure only a certain elite get work, and the others find it more difficult to find jobs.
@@Bharat_P Yeah but if you know that this high end stuff is paying well, why spend enormous amount of money on the lower end of the spectrum? spending more money on educating the people should be the priority and not subsidising manufacturing facilities.
@@hariprasath6120that’s like saying why wouldn’t everyone study in IIT/IIMs? Firstly there aren’t enough seats and teachers for that which creates a supply problem.
It’s the same with high end jobs. You’ll struggle to find 20-30 million of them worldwide, I.e.: there’s no chance you can employ 600-700 million people with them.
In summary, RR is full of crap. He’s also clearly not wanting India to benefit from our current geopolitical situation and it’s frankly unthinkable for somebody to ask stupid questions like “why should India want to be a Superpower”.
My guess is that he’s on the payroll of the CCP just like a lot of news outlets and anti-government rhetoric spewers…
@@Bharat_P yeah but the thing is that service sector in India is already the biggest job provider with higher salaries. So, without much of an intervention we have a gold mine that employs millions and provides a higher quality of life, obviously one should concentrate more on the strengths rather than chasing a lottery. But not to say that it shouldn't be done but the amount of money spending should be relatively less.
@@hariprasath6120 it’s not going to provide employment for 700million high end jobs. Besides, only about 1% of the service sector jobs are high-end/hightech. The rest are mindless call centre or drone-level roles where cost arbitrage works in our favour. We seriously need to get into low-to-high end manufacturing and our farming sector requires a serious revamp
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the beginning he talks about how problem of mass unemployment looms large in our country and in later part suggests than rather than manufacturing we should concentrate on value creation. Here is the problem , to use his example while Apple creates a lot of value a company like that would create value for its majority stake holders and a comparatively lesser number of employees. Where as a company like foxcon though valued less would employ a large number of people because of the labor intensive nature of their activity. So is it just me of what he talks is actually paradoxical ?
There is a general perception that a country becomes development, when the service sector GDP is higher than the manufacturing, agriculture etc., that's how US, UK and other developed countries grew but India's growth is more in service sector from the beginning, our GDP contribution from manufacturing is less than from the service sector, there are people who say India skipped the manufacturing growth and leaped into service sector, now there is a focus or pressure to invest more in manufacturing and grow it rather than on service sector, what i perceived from Dr. Rajan's interview is to focus on value addition, don't invest or focus too much on manufacturing rather leverage our skills in the service sector and do value addition, like apple does.
I don't know why, listening to this talk iam just reminded of the story of 2 blind people trying to comprehend what an elephant is by touching some parts of the elephant.
Very good job sirji jayhind Jay Bharat thanks
Welk said. Coudnt agree more.
I admire him very much ❤
Very good interview.
Thanks Mr. Thapar for bringing such valuable guidance to general public (which otherwise won't be provided on the main stream media).
Dr. Rajan, thanks for your insights into how the India can get max advantage from all the sectors except Agriculture.
Offcourse, unfortunately agriculture IS NOT ALLOWED and NOT PROMOTED for export business, but wouldn't agri-export be benefitial to country like India with such a glorious history (strength) of agriculture sector?
As Martin Wolf says "India has become less liberal but more efficient". And while growing up we need to prioritize improvisations in our infra,system-efficiency etc. over the liberalism without completely ignoring it.
Raghu , how many people these consulting companies foreign banks hire in india only a fraction of the elite educated people in iit iim nit not small towns grads low skilled people and illiterate poor how will they get good jobs and high quality wages you have a very elite view of the economy and society 😔
Lots of important issues not considered.
1) Better irrigation system,water management will improve rural farming economy. We can become world ready to eat food supplier
2) No options for manufacturing. Should learn lesson from covid vacine supplies. At the time of war like emergencies no world country will support. Our own manufacturing and development is key for nation building.
3) Quality education system,best medical and engineering institution are key for skill development.
Rather than freebies govt should provide affordable education to mass population.Improved skills will help country in every sector.
Don't misguide youths. Their is substitute for hardwork.
he gives mother hood statement ; whose responsibility is to generate jobs ; govt or private
Outstanding!
In his book 'Development as Freedom' Prof. Amartya Sen has dealt these issues lucidly.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
We are not "vishwa gurus" but we r "vishwa chelas"... and work accordingly, this is the summary of this whole discussion and someone please teach these things to "The King" , who misguides the audience of being the so called vishwa gurus!!!!
The heady combination of two greats. Perfect recipe for a delightful episode which everybody should watch.
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
@@Dk-uh4no Based of facts from WhatsApp University, you are right.
@@kvafsu225 a blind Chatukar won’t see facts.. he relies on newslaundry wire propaganda university!!
Thapar, great?? What's his contribution to Indian society? Guy speaks good english although not as good as Mr Shashi Tharoor 😂
@@atty8 contribution to society is very subjective. At best only a perception
Interesting points 🎯
Very enlightening.
Thanks!
Also, around 7:00, RaRa says India should be focusing on labour intensive manufacturing and not capital intensive manufacturing like the recent Micron investment. He mentions this is not how China started and kinda hinted India should follow China's path.
Literally 30 seconds later after Thapar asks why in his book he mentions China model doesn't work for India, he goes on a rant how China's model used to work and how it can't work for India now
But... you literally said China model is what we should go for first literally 30 seconds go and then, completely contradict later.. wtf? Expected better from RaRa
I wish I could invite him to manage India's finance ministry.
This interview creates good awaerness ...
Every Indian must get an opportunity in running the government. Modi is repeating what Congress did. He was CM for 12 years and PM for 10 years, a total of 22 years. People say all Indians are corrupt. BJP buys corrupt people and welcome them into the party. To know whether Modi government is corrupt, we must have to change government and probe the existing government.
I’m convinced that Rajan would offer an equally eloquent defense of the same policies if “massa” approved of the policy makers.
Being a Himalayan wolf i always mock and laugh on left and right. I equally enjoyed on both sides arguing how they try to proving they are the best for this country. While of them are soley useful for running a counr😂
Excellent anatomy of Indian economy and development
I think, services will grow despite of the government, we need manufacturing as well.
Good point
Good point
Raghuram Rajan is working for the forces against the success of Bharat. He speaks with a forked tongue like what the Red Indians labelled the Americans.
Too good gentlemen..
You are awesome as always. I support u
Great interview, as always, with a giant like Raghuram, but his views on autocracy vs democracy seems mildly supporting the former, which is a bit intreguing.
Thanks
There’s one thing that I disagree with. Just going into high end manufacturing and services doesn’t solve the problem of the huge uneducated population. We need huge low end manufacturing too in our current phase of economic development the current
He wants to directly do high end job, when 60% of our workforce is into farming. How plans to upgrade them to a level where Goldman-Sachs will employee them or they go into apple for designing ?
He is not understanding that we first need to move farm labour (2 ~ 3% of GDP) to mfg (13% GDP) and later these can further act to skill-motivate their kids for high end jobs.
High end jobs are fewer in numbers where as low end jobs employee max. This is what China did....and are done by others.
India has to do both manufacturing and services. Service sector is not labor intensive. Only viable path for mass employment of low and semi skilled workers is manufacturing. Not once has government said India doesn't want to engage in service sector aggressively.
Service industry is easier to shift compared to manufacturing. As third world countries get educated, big companies would be able to shift in matter of months and India will be left high and dry. Manufacturing is a strategic requirement.
Very Best interview
@15:00 Thapar quotes Rajan's point that India should pursue growth led by the services sector. Rajan has said this before in various op-eds. This is mistaken. Arvind Panagriya, in his book - India Unlimited, makes an excellent point that there is no reason why we should pick and choose between manufacturing and services. As he says India can have robust growth if we walk on two legs, meaning we pursue economic growth with both the manufacturing and services sectors. To grow the manufacturing sector in India we will need to do labor sector reforms, which is hard to get through and can be potentially unpopular. I have a feeling that this shift to the services sector might be a cop-out to avoid making these labor sector reforms.
This cop-out seems disappointing because Rajan in the past( circa 2012-13, when I used to follow the news a lot) was usually in favor of doing reforms that can propel India's economic growth.
Artificial Intelligency, Digital Economy: India being multi-lingual nation could achieve prominent space in Information Enabled Technology Services in providing services of Content Writing, Translation, Online Services to MNC (IT) companies, etc.
Two brilliant brains.. worth to watch
Innovation happens only in an open minded society. No exceptions. If anyone thinks our society is open minded doesn’t live in India.
By innovation i don't mean mere incremental improvements.
Awesome 🎉
Great work Karan,
Very nice.
We hope dr.Rajan will play more effective role for Indian Economy
Hagu Rajan ravaged India’s economy as RBI governor .. banking with 12% NPA, economy in fragile 5.. has been against manufacturing.. such loud mouths should be questioned and banished!!
But why Pakistanis r so keen in indias an economy?