Nassim Nicholas Taleb: "you should study risk taking, not risk management"
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- Live from RiskMinds International, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Trader and Scholar & Risk Engineer at NYU-Tandon School, shares his thoughts on our understanding of risk, the human factor, and what our grandmothers got right.
Visit the RiskMinds365 blog for more exclusive interviews and thought leadership: goo.gl/yQeosW
01:00 there is high economic risk, increase in debt
01:21 have increase in moral hazard, people gaming the system
01:38 there should be no risk management, you should study risk-taking
02:15 you have to worry about an industry that is dominated by non-risk-takers discussing risks
02:30 big data brings more risks than it solves
03:04 too much data yet our technical understanding has not grown
03:18 machine learning, AI will not help with fat-tails
03:48 psychologists shouldn't tamper with paranoia
04:18 have paranoia about ruin, leave risk-taking for things that do not entail ruin; volatile income + lower tail-risk > smooth income streams + higher tail-risk
04:54 opportunities in crises exist
05:24 the large majority of grandmothers' findings have been replicated and hold (unlike those of the majority of psychology papers)
06:16 (wrt globalisation) the world has lost its "island" properties
08:10 localism > globalism
09:00 what holds for 2019? well be talking about the same things next year, as we did this year
You are a genius
This is just incredible, CZcams should have this for every video. Please sell your services to them. Thank you
Thanks for this v appreciated 👍
I don’t know who you are but you have provided a valuable service to the rest of us.Thank you.
@@seandelaney1700 People who read summaries do not watch ads. CZcams's CFO hates that sh*t !
To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough. I've been quite unsure about investing in this current market and at the same time I feel it's the best time to get started on the market, what are your thoughts?
I can’t focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 3years, you see I’ve got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/unstable market doesn’t provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
I agree, my profit has been consistent no matter the market situation, I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2020 this time with guidance from an investment adviser that was recommended by a popular economist on a subreddit, long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over $850k following guidance from my investment adviser.
@@Oly_laura I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
@@hermanramos7092 Definitely! All of this happened in less than a year after Catherine Morrison Evans told me what to do. I started with less than $100,000, and now I'm about 17,000 short of having a quarter million dollars.
One of the smartest out there. People should follow him more than any other financial commentator.
He's tongue-tied when he talks, though. He's a better writer than a speaker.
@Rorsi92 In on of his books he talks about setting up his teams based on cumulative experience (total years) instead of the amount of profits. Since this is likely to represent people that survived the amounts of bad luck that gets thrown to the living
Every great trader has a deep understanding of their own psychology with risk taken.
This personal trading psychology affects every trade entry and every trade exit they make and there is awareness that this psychology is a “work in progress,” meaning that even great traders struggle with their inner demons from time to time. Those demons might be fear, greed, or regret. Have a current risk plan in place with your strategy, Regardless of what the demons are. IQD momentum strategy by Lukasz Wilhelm thought me how to have ability to identify changing market cycles with it's system method, the more you develop what we call “The Trader’s Mindset” with good learning the quicker you will confront your demons and the more success you will have in slaying them in risk factors..
Of course. If he is wrong about risk management/taking, he beats himself with a whip. He has skin in the game.
@Birman Hitman No, talking is also doing. You quibbled like a sophist to deny that fact, which destroys your credibility. When MLK gave his famous speech in Washington D.C., he did something more than some scribbler on a note pad in a back office that day.
so the last time he was in riskminds was 98" two years before the 00´s crash , and here he is 2018" two years before the 2020´s crash? :o he is gonna be my new crash indicator
He also dry coughed at 8:35 - OMG he predicted the coronavirus too!!1one
loool did you listen when he mentioned naive statistics? This is exactly what he meant. :)
LoLz...very perceptive!
"First time" not last time. 3 weeks, 50 likes and no one corrected this mistake? When I did not understand him I rewind, probably did it 8 times.
bro you got fooled by randomness
god bless Nassim Taleb
amen!
I just love this man. This is the calmest and most endearing I've seen him. He's just off the scale insightful.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Maria Reyes.
I'm surprised you know her. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
Mrs Reyes changed my life because of the high profits I got from investing with her.
You invest with Mrs Reyes too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
taking risks that don't lead to ruin, like being a concerned and genuine person who cares on multi levels. thnk you Taleb
A real thought leader of our time.
Listening to this shows up a lot of paths we can go down from 2020 onwards. Rellz insightfull interview
This man is just too brilliant
*Thank you for delivering the intelligence*
We will be talking about the same thing today, and in ten years ahead with some variation. Taleb's mindset is deep and profound!
Very interesting and thought provoking conversation. Thank you
Wow! Never thought of this. I was actually looking up the software- I’m at the pony where I have risk of course , but I have been doing risk management too but this is a new perspective for me! especially your words on paranoia
Great chat!
Love Taleb.
Brilliant mind. Loved his book Antifragile. Globalization and the winner take all effect at 6:48
That aged WELL
more so now in the wake of svb
I need to watch this every month :O
I want to see his lecture!!
It's amazing how nice his skin quality care is for his age! I'm in my 30s and have the skin ageing of a 70 year old 😢
Genius! As usual.
Agree, concentration and superstar phenomenon have become a problem.
Too good
this guy really sounds smart...it is my first time to listen and add value to my useless and insignificant existence.
WoWCity 🤐😏
oh come on :-)
where is the lecture?
Where can I find his lecture.
what surprises me is that there are only 3.7k people who liked this video, that means we have been tough by a deep end genius....
wisdom > models
Omg Seneca lives
The thing he said about grandmothers.. I agree, however, the world is ever-evolving so their advice might hold us back rather than show us the way forward
In the wake of corona, I think the questions that should be asked by corporate risk managers are, will govts be able to continue to provide QE/bailouts and how should companies/banks incorporate this into their risk analyses? Healthy, conservative companies have gotten screwed twice in two decades already. P&G could have bought a few companies on the cheap after 08 and become 2x larger than it is now. Just sayin'
People need to study getting off their butts, and reducing the risk when moving at speed.
Light-years ahead of his peers.
My Polish grandmother in Detroit told me "Learn history because it can kill you." I also learned and studied to become what I call the Polish-Ukranian Wise Man Job - Busha (babushka) often said, "My father knew when to get out of Poland (Russia)" (She remembers him saying 'these young guys are no good. A stint in the army would straighten them right out.' August 1, 1914.... he knew and headed straight or the port, first ship back to America. His wife and the kids followed shortly after. The Tzar didn't want to draft them. So as a small child I just figured it would be my job to always know when to tell everybody, 'It's time to go!" Of course I live in the U.S. so far so good. I moved to California and have appreciated how amazingly easy and reasonably safe our lives here are, hence, Polish -Ukranian Wise Man corollary: Also appreciate when you have it good.
Something else I know about my grandmother. If she watched this video she would go on and on about how menacing Taleb looks. That's another aspect of grandmothers. She was very smart (dropped out of school after the third grade went to work) so later if I repeated what Nick had said, she'd say, "That's smart." And if she were still alive today (117) I say, "Yeah Busha, reading this guy's books has made me a lot of money, even when I don't do everything he says."
And while I'm yammering on to no one.... Globalism is profitable, but then there's West Virginia. The solution for them individually is what I did, I got out of Detroit when it was clear it was failing. Everyone can't move to California and a lot of those people like where they live, especially like the network of family and friends they have. The better solution is to make sure they all have a basic income, good healthcare, good schools (Now Globalism doesn't have a problem in W. Virginia, they have customers) but this leaves another problem, what do they do to for meaning? (I invest in Tesla, recently I've done really well. Of course I check on all the variables...but to me this investment is obvious, it's almost guaranteed, but it lacks meaning. Tesla is changing the world, but I'm just making money. (I invested in Tesla because I read a book exhorting me to 'have my skin in the game.' The money is nice, but I can see how easy it can be to just become a rich idiot. )
Hi, guessing your friends in UKraine had timely exits?
What happen to west virginia exactly ? (Not an american citizen)
this guy summarizes in one sentence why AI will never take over
Nobody knows about the future not even Nassim
this seems to be the most cool and eloquent I've seen and heard him, and my guess it's because the room is so noisy, that he feels like he's in the traders room...
I wish I had the statistical and mathematical knowledge to understand Nassim, and actually learn and apply what he recommends.
In simple terms, just make yourself anti-fragile, i.e. able to take advantage of uncertainty.
@@programmer1840 How? Can you give an example?
You can apply it and I would argue you are already doing it. How?
You posted this comment (very low effort) and now you have people all over the world helping you out (high reward).
That's the essence, seeking out potentially low costs, high reward actions (optionality).
Hint: The above is usually situated where your skillset and people's problems intersect.
Hi where can I find that lesson where he explains how big data increase the risk rather than reduce it? Is there a video somewhere? Thanks
I would advice you to look for a professional trader who will explain everything to you, teach you and also help you trade. Do you need help?
What is the interviewer’s name?
Emma Walden
Man, I learn so much, yet am not any closer to finding out how to *APPLY* it…
How about a practical example? Not a _”universal”_ solution, but just a way to deal with a certain form of risk.
Learn from collective exp. of time dynamically.
The people want concentration, not fairness.
Anyone else is listening to this during the chinese flu Pandemic?
it is called covid-19
Back then was what I said.
Do you want me to delete my comment?
@@danielracovitan9779 yes Chinese Flu is called covid-19 too.
No during Ukraine war
let's all come tomorrow :p
100% he's so spot on. Our systems are weakened by lack of skin in the game and risk-taking. Protection creates interventionism and defensiveness.
Risk-taking is also more important than knowledge: czcams.com/video/f2eVkvBVDgE/video.html
On why Grandmothers are right .....5:00 and Psychology papers/studies are wrong 50% of the time (grandmothers have dynamic knowledge over longer time intervals),
*_Risk management is a component of risk-taking._*
That's true, but he was making a point, a strong one.
But WHAT are the grandmothers right about? That's what I want to know
taleb should study bmi
KELLY CRITERION
I would become billionaire in next 70 years
Risk taking kya sikhna. Earn two grand. Start dabbling in stocks.
Start this over. When he says 'risk taking,' think "no birth control" and see if it changes your perceptions.
Haha, good one! To the extent that unwanted pregnancy falls in the category of tail risk (risk or "ruin"), then it seems Taleb would advocate avoiding it.
@@briankaul1201 Yes, and his obsession in statistics seems to be with 'fat tails.' Or is it spelled 'phat'? ;D
@@briankaul1201 That is a 'doubly penetrating' analysis.
That helped
No birth control = a young society based on the responsability of their genitals and values
Risk takers and risk management, hmm. I don't agree here. What risk management is doing is quantifying the risk upto level, or just looking at the facts and then deciding whether to go ahead with a decision or not. Blanket statement, such as, there must be risk takers and not risk management, will only lead to potential disasters, by individuals in corporates.
Is it? Or do people in "risk management" only go ahead with things when all the (perceivable) risks are mitigated to (in their opinion) avoid the potential disasters? People in risk management are often probably better described as risk avoiders, to the point they miss the actual opportunity and die on one they think is devoid of risk. A poker player that only bids when they have got a "safe" hand will go nowhere and only increase the likelihood that they will go out with that one "safe" hand that they will play once in a blue moon; comparably a consulting engineering firm that no-gos everything but the safest of jobs will only be increasing the likelihood that they go out of business on that "safest" of jobs.
.. as a German Biologist - my old Buddy from East Germany...
Herr Putin
is your BEST student
he takes ALL the risks
including his own fatality.
It is never about Losing
it is about how long to ride the Bull...
and then came covid 19....
So what's the point of viewing his content and reading his books if life is about random sequences... this is like a priest tells you this world gonna end tomorrow and also sells you a cow.. what hell you will do with that cow and the priest with the money.. same way what do we can do collectively in all this randomness and nasim who randomly wrote a book and that book randomly got famous and then randomly 3 or 4 times he wrote some more random books and then he started preaching all this random knowledge to random ppl... how he said what was true 10 years ago but how the hell could be true if everything is random..
Unless he has made millions and millions....what he lectures and what he says means nothing
An ok amount from his ideas $97m
@@marcusfishenden4453 Ok make up another number. Clearly you are incompetent in using the internet. His net worth is 2 million and that's from book sales and working at a uni. It's not from any trading etc source: Forbes. Were you born in the 1500's?
This is a hilarious comment, he dedicated a book called Skin in the game based quite literally about this very thing. He has made millions from quantum trading and left to become a thinker.
Black Swan: "Bad things can hurt you."
Antifragile: "Bad things can make you stronger."
This guy is all over the map.
All truths are but half truths. Life is seemingly full of paradoxes.
I haven't read Black Swan yet, but in Antifragile he's very clear that what makes a system anti fragile, often kills individuals, and what kills the individuals, improves the system for the better. When viewed that way, there is no contradiction.
😁 I think someone’s wishful thinking is still there ... listen, keep this Corona bull up all you want - next “risk” I take is a lawsuit 🙂👍
every country should impose digital tax on google, facebook, and the other giants.
he's just in love with himself, for saying things that are quite obvious, lol
100% Lebanese
Greek Roman Phoenician. The most dangerous genetic conglomerate. Impossible to fight....Curse of Hannibal....
@@raginald7mars408 haha
does this guy has anything new to say over the past 13 years?
Wisdom doesn’t go out of style, especially when people seem to make the same foolish mistakes. We forget. Times change. Wisdom prevails through times and seasons.
It's stupid to say he is the smartest out there. How would you know? You probably dont know the math he knows. The problem is that no one is immune from conceit. Not even Nassim Taleb. But, I like Nassim Taleb and he would be my friend if he would answer me once in awhile.
john anderson What the."..
Shits wherever he eats. Imma outta here.
He is the most annoying person. His cross says it all. Yeah he is a genius alright.
Risk management goes through risk taking, as it's a part of risk management. By learning to manage risk you learn to take risks appropriately.
Nassim Taleb is overrated and after his daft 2010 predictions I've lost all respect for him. This is the issue when you start asking questions to people that have no idea what they're talking about.
Taleb has been acting like quite the fool, recently.
why do you say so?
@@spekyuleta2044 because he said globalist don't get it
ignore his twitter,
read his books,
watch his lectures
signal >>> noise
@@driziiD very trumpian indeed. simps will never understand this concept
Funny, how Taleb, being so smart, was blind about da Donaldo boy...
She was way out of her depth and did not get most of his insights, no ones fault.
Taleb is the biggest clown around.
That point about incorporating prior relevance is pure Bayesian
Minus the economic modelling and excessive data...
@@redman6790 looks like we've got a frequentist