Deep Dive 31/10/2023 - A look into Storm Ciarán and beyond - Met Office Weather Forecast
Vložit
- čas přidán 30. 10. 2023
- This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 31/10/2023.
An exceptionally deep area of low pressure, Storm Ciarán, will bring very strong winds and heavy rain, particularly to southern parts. In this deep dive we take a look at the cause of it, and how severe the wether is going to be.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - czcams.com/users/metoffice?s...
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
As a nerd, I love these deep videos.
Your not it’s wise to keep safe are planet can be very dangerous. Road conditions are important.
I've only just discovered this and I'm so excited about it 😂. I really want to show my parents but I know they will eye roll at me lol
I can relate 😊
Alex, you are an excellent presenter of this complicated area of knowledge and doing great work to help the public understanding of weather and meteorology. Thank you.
It's amazing to see the Met Office jumping into CZcams and providing this incredible and detailed content. Ace!
Thanks Alex, well done for a really informative Deep Dive, and explaining the background to Storm Ciaran. As a resident on the south coast, I'll certainly hunker down on Thursday morning!
That was a very packed deep dive! Informative and educational as always. Let’s hope people heed the storm warnings and don’t put themselves or others at risk!
Think about us on Guernsey. 95mph winds expected! No ships bringing food. It’s gonna be exciting!
Stay safe mate
Guernsey has a fantastic gin industry..you'll be fine.
Hold on to your wig!
Jersey Met have issued a red warning. Stay safe
Many thanks Alex, a very informative and interesting Deep Dive. I really do hope everyone takes care and acts responsibly throughout the next couple of days. Thanks a lot
Absolutely brilliant explanation of Storm Cieran and what to expect. Thank you very much.
now that's what I call a weather forecast!
I’m also a very amateur nerd, these deep dives certainly help me better understand how the barometric pressure ares are created and how they effect the weather as they track their course. Really appreciate your explanations and expertise thank you.
Thankyou for such a kind hearted update on the bad weather.....😊
Thank you Met Office for you informative and helpful weather report 😊
Once again I want to thank you guys for all your hard work. I will be going to Portland Bill to photograph the storms arrival.
Have Fun, great place to be. The Chesil Bank should have some impressive waves too.☔☔
When we were young , we used to call them winter storms , that was back in the 50,s .
Yes, I think the gist of all this is; it's going to be wet and windy. I think I have that right....
Such a professional, informative forecast as usual, Thank you Alex and the ‘ Deep Dive Met office team ! ‘
Alex as I live in the South East I guess this storm means prepare for the worst and hope for the best. An excellent piece. Thanks
Thanks Alex very clear and detailed presentation. I find these deep dives really informative and educational.
Thanks for the master class Alex! So on point! Your like a super AI Met head weather machine but with the added bonus of compassion and due care ❤
Deep dive! Always useful and interesting!
Excellent lad - that can`t be easy. Lets hope these forecasts become the norm and folk taKe more interest in their environment - that can`t but help to raise sympathy/empathy with our transient climate. Thank you.
Lots of work goes into these forecasts thank you brilliant
amazing Alex, love all the detail and the graphics that you guys produce. The total cumulative rainfall graphic used for Babet was top notch stuff. just a suggestion, when you have the yellow wind and rain overlapping, perhaps diagonal pinstripe the wind areas so it's clearer but also yellow?
Wow so much worry for Autum low windy rainy pressure system it's so historic 40 mph winds in London City shut down😀
Hi Alex,I hope that the met office management realise the quality of your presentations which are always so clearly and enthusiastically presented.
Doubled up all the lines on my boat mooring today in preparation. Adding in the high tide with a low around 950HPa will mean life on the pontoon will get interesting on Thursday.
Thank you Alex
Hi Alex, this kind of weather input in the spring and summer months for wildfire risk would be great, especially around the cold dry easterly weather patterns that can reduce RH and ultimately increase our risk of wildfire. I'm a national wildfire advisor so this kind of information is excellent for response preparation and community engagement.
We'll keep doing the deep dives all year. WIldfire risk is a sensitive subject
@@metoffice Thank you, I know we already have the FSI and FDR but a deep dive on predicted weather patterns helps responders prepare rather than committing to saying it will happen. So many variables but the weather is the key player and the 3 month outlook goes someway toward preparing responders but a more accurate forecast closer to the event would be very useful.
Excellent information. Thank you. Sometimes it is quite difficult to locate Great Britain outline on Atlantic scale charts. Particularly when using a phone sized screen maybe an icon our clearer outline?
Great explanation, Alex. Thank you! Much appreciated.
Excellent service full coverage makes it very clear, thank you all. Bill
Excellent presentation again Alex. Such a lot to explain about what we can expect. Great advice.
I live in West Cornwall, and vividly remember when Storm Eunice passed through in February 2022 (mainly because it took off most of my conservatory roof!). So I'm worried about Ciarán, and wonder how it will compare to Eunice.
First class information Alex, thank you, quite a scary few days coming up!
Very well presented, thank you (I hope no one is hurt on Thursday)
These are Brilliant videos. It’s actually the exact same track as the great storm I think as well but I may be wrong. I think red warnings will happen for Kent and Sussex coast. We need the pray this track stays a little south because if this goes north we’ll expect over 100mph gusts in places
There are some similarities
THANK YOU SO MUCH ALEX YOU REALLY EXPLAINED IT VERY VERY WELL DONE 😁👍🏼& I REALLY LOVE THESE DEEP DIVES SO MUCH EVERY TUESDAY'S ♥️😁🌞⛈🌧👍🏼.
Thank u for what u do 😊
Will be starting to watch these again as we approach the time of year when (hopefully!) we might get some snow…
Another new chart - the confidence chart! Excellent as usual.🌀⛈️🌪️🌩️
1st timer loved all of it thank you
Great session again, particularly like the background detail behind the main weather forecasts such as the probability around Low/High and confidence. Also love the source of our weather systems and the jet stream such compression of hot and cold over America. Great stuff.
Absolutely fascinating Deep Dive,thank you Alex.Found the track of Storm Ciaran ,interesting before its arrival in the UK.Amazing how common sense in bad weather seems to be lacking in some people,but that is another story! Once again many thanks.
Brilliant to get such a detailed run through events like this - thanks
Weather nerd here! Love to be educated. Great videos thank you.
Whilst your map is generally centralised on your screen perhaps the graphic guys could outline the contours a bit more so the cloud cover doesn't obscure so much, otherwise fantastic presentation 😊
Great job very informative and helpful
Excellent, Indepth forecast. NW Scotland stragely dry ( well, than it mortally is in Autumn) ATM.
is the pressure level going to be similar to the Great storm of 1987 ?
WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT ! ! !🤔
Loads of information, Thanks Met
Very useful deep dive, thanks for the great video!
As the planet warms, these storms are going to become the norm for UK weather, and we'll keep breaking rainfall accumulation records . . . .
@@raystewart3648 The geological records show that there was more rain during the MWP and some coastal areas (eg round Sardinia) had to be abandoned. Abandoning coastal regions now, when we have much higher population density, would be more problematic. The MWP was regional, part of the North Atlantic Oscillation, not global, as our current climate changes are, and was followed by the Little Ice Age. With higher temperatures in the deep oceans, we are not going to see a new Little Ice Age - yes, we'll still see oscillations in temperatures, but the baseline trajectory is trending upwards.
@@jimparlett4099 That is all fine, and I agree and knew this. However Earth has gone through much more extreme weather than we are in now. We are currently still within the latter parts of an ice age that started 2.5 million years ago. The main Pleistocene Epoch, lasted up an till 11500 years ago, but we are still in the later edges of this period. Temp have risen to twice the temp of to day over millions of years and has dropped as well, even before humans where around. My comment was meant to draw peoples attention to the fact that weather has been much worse in the past.
I am not anti-climate change, I recycle, even though its now to late. If countries like China and India, plus the US still use coal on mass, then there is nothing much the rest of the world can do about it.
I think this sort of thing will continue for another 2 - 3 months, at least!
Thanks as always. Love these deep dives, not dumbed down like so many forcasts.
Another excellent presentation. Thank you.
Exiting times weather wise. Huge storm surges in Liverpool bay spring tides this week, >10m total height. The track of Ciaran across Southern England should guarantee saturation UK news media coverage.
I REMEMBER THE GREAT STORM OF 1987 AND THE DESTRUCTION THAT CAUSED SO I AM KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS STORM CIARÁN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS ? ? ?🤔
Very helpful and informative thankyou
Superb.
Hi this is the first time I'm watching Deep Dive. Great information thankyou.
Visiting the UK (I’m from Scotland originally) over the next fortnight, so very useful for me :) Thank you!
Bruh hahahaha Scotland is in the uk 😂😂 bruh i think you were meant to say your visiting England 😂
@@justinwilson3922 🤦🏻♀️
Great Explanations. Thank you!
Great Job . Tons of material and very well presented. More of these Please !
Thank Yoi Alex! Amazing video
Very interesting information!
Thanks Alex, I find these very interesting!
Thank you, Alex
Tons of information in this one. Thanks. Fingers crossed the impacts are on the lower end of the envelope with storm Ciaran.
One small issue I have with MetO presentations is when considering the temperature of air masses (the difference over north america powering the jet stream), or when showing rainfall, there is no scale to associate with the colours.
Often we hear of warm colours or colder air in blue. Or alternately of bright colours depicting heavier rainfall. Even if its just a link to a webpage, would it be possible to see what the modelled values were in °C or mm/hr respectively?
Good point, we don't usually put them on our other broadcasts as not enough time for that extra info, but in a deep dive they could be useful
Already told my aunt to cancel her plans to travel from SW UK to London on Thursday. Worried about my friend flying in tonight from Prague to London.
Really well set out. Thank you.
Ciarán is pronounced Key-'Raw'-on, like the name Ron, eg CiaRon, due to the fada over the last 'a'.
Very well presented and informative ,we have been warned🤔
I live in a town that was badly flooded by the last storm the ground has not dried out so likely to flood again. Been a El Nino year I get the feeling we are just seeing the beginning of what is to come.
If ciaran is the beginning then we will get a c5 hurricane 😂
Thank you from Jersey 🙏🏼
I’m getting flashbacks to the 1987 Great Storm…🥴
Definitely going to get my barograph going and try to record the record low pressure….
Amazing insight into what is about to happen……
Very informative, and an excellent presenter. Another great Deep Dive.
Ooohhhh i love a deep dive video, first time watching these
October has been very wet soo far
Love the way you get rid of the jet stream at the touch of a button! 😮Please explain more about the 3D aspect of weather, for example, is there a barrier between lower atmosphere and the zone where the jet stream forms? How is lower and upper jet stream connected please?
I'm more worried about the storm brewing behind Ciarán, Which Zoomearth map shows on 3rd November, it could be up to 3 times larger then Ciarán.
brilliant presentation
My go to channel for in depth weather prognosis….brilliant , clear and precise…..well done to the team…..just hope you have it wrong…..I live on Jersey…..we are looking at a hurricane knocking on and likely destroying our collective doors…..
Thanks for sharing another deep dive Alex. Very helpful info!
Already got the met office app, but curious about deep dive on CZcams. I'm a visual learner so for me this is excellent, really well explained and the modern tech helps even more, wish I had this when I was much younger. I have subscribed and have also subscribed to the met office learning channel too as heard it explains that's good too. Thanks again really pleased. ☺️👏
I was meant to fly from Miami to london Wednesday night into Thursday morning, landing Thursday at 8am in Heathrow! I’ve very quickly moved my flights to another day….
One day can you run through the different models and how/why they bring different results? Do the Americans have a model that is better at predicting their weather? (or just a bigger computer). Does the European model just throw everything at our shores and use us as a windbreak?
I keep wanting to do a deep dive look at the different models, waiting for a 'quieter' weather day to do it. Maybe next week?
I work in a mining museum we keep an eye on the pressure because if we get a sudden drop in pressure we get gas underground.
I would love the met office to do an "After storm" analysis where they use their super computer based models to re run the storm but with all associated greenhouse gasses at pre 1750 levels and show the difference in results.
Travelling to Manchester about 1 am very detail thank you
very well done alex thx
Love to get some tidal surge info & sea conditions. Tides are huge of late. Really like this content
Good suggestion thanks
Thanks Alex for this week’s Deep Dive. 😀 sorry I didn’t watch it on Tuesday, i was getting ready for Halloween!! 🎃
I like these videos.
Could you do some more which cover the influence of low pressure systems and high tides on the impact of heavy rain. Coastal areas have taken a hammering recently and it seems that drainage and flood prevention systems aren't being built to cope with these extreme wet weather events which also coincide with high wind, low pressure and high tide effects.
Superb deep dive again. Easy to understand . Here in Derbyshire the ground is very saturated. Why is the winds coming from the east a lot and not from normally from the west. Is it a local issue or a international issue?
Good presentation!!
Very interesting, thank you.
Well, all the trick of treat food was gone from the bowl I put out. I think maybe most of it was stolen by a group of lads I saw tricking a block of flats and running off. Why can't they leave some for others. I'm just glad some got here early and got some treats.
I've turned off the lights, brought in most of the decorations, as storm Ciarán is coming in tonight. The lights will stay, be put back on for Christmas! Only had one set of orange lights, they are OK for Christmas too, aren't they? 😁
Excellent brief.
Please reply or heart comment so I know it's been read --- for comical purpose, could you get Jonathan Vautrey, do the deep dive, JUST ONCE, and invite a Guinness book of records Adjudicator, as I am certain he could win his place in the records for the amount of times he uses says - AS WELL - in one weather report, Please Please Please, I am not requesting this to be nasty to the sweet young man, it's purely as everyime he does the weather it makes me chuckle n chortle, and hope he has a blooming career maybe get invited onto Graham Norton or Jimmy car show, Many thanks in advance and thank you All for your terrific hard work and CZcams content it's appreciated by us all ❤❤❤
Excellent Analysis of a very difficult to predict situation....Similarities to mid October 1987.... 🌬🌧
Tempest..!
Very well executed dude.
My apologies I didn’t catch your name.
Thank you for information.
💪💪🏴☠️🏴☠️🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧❌