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CNN Flubs Data Analysis
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- čas přidán 16. 08. 2024
- CNN seriously flubbed a data analysis, and published an embarrassingly incorrect conclusion regarding sales of firearms in the US. Their piece, titled "Gun Sales Are Plunging" would be more accurately titled "Gun Sales Keep Right On Growing".
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Gun sales are plunging?? 00:00
FBI NICS data 00:37
Article author discards context, reaches wrong conclusion 1:22
Four years of data in an I-MR chart 2:04
Sandy Hook 3:20
Reality is that sales growth continues 3:50
CNN used the FBI NICS check information. In the US, when you buy a firearm from a dealer, the dealer checks the NICS database to ensure that the buyer is not a prohibited person. There is a correlation between NICS checks and gun sales, but the match is not perfect.
CNN discarded most of the available context by comparing one month this year to the same month last year. The month from last year was just after an anti-gun President was elected, and the terrible Sandy Hook disaster. During that period gun sales, as indicated by FBI NICS checks reached an all-time high. Comparing with that month, sales are lower now. But looking at the data in context reveals that the growth rate is actually right on the established trend line.