How Geopolitically Realistic is Fallout's Great War?
Vložit
- čas přidán 30. 05. 2024
- Ditch your dull browser, and download one that sings! Get Opera GX for FREE by going to www.operagx.gg/moonchannel.
Minor SPOILER WARNING for the Fallout TV Show and the Fallout Series as a Whole!
---
I was walking along, minding my business, when out of an orange colored sky… Flash, Bam, Alakazam! The Fallout TV show came by!
And it got me thinking, well, just how realistic is Fallout anyway? Humans don’t turn into ghouls when exposed to too much radiation and nuclear bombs tend to be a bit more destructive than portrayed… sure. But what about the geopolitics and history of the Fallout universe?
In this video, we’re going to explore the geopolitics of the Great War and see whether or not such a war is possible in our own timeline! Now, we won’t be able to cover every aspect of Sino-American politics (I won’t be getting into trade relations, for example), but what we can do is look at Fallout’s timeline of the Great War, and do a play-by-play, to see if we’ll also be crawling out through the falling out before long!
---
10% of Moon Channel's Gross Revenue goes to charity: including our sponsorship income! We are currently supporting Doctors Without Borders (MSF).
You can learn more about Doctors Without Borders at www.msf.org/.
---
Please also consider supporting Moon Channel on Patreon!
/ moonchannelyt
---
Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
04:19 - The Great War Timeline
15:29 - Sino-American Relations at the Time of Fallout's Inception
22:38 - The Resource Wars
29:18 - Peak Oil and Global Reserves
36:02 - Vaults, Experiments, and Nuclear Warfare Doctrine
44:10 - Conclusion
46:29 - Credit's Gag; Silly Songs with Moony
---
Attributions:
Polandballs:
"Oh Russia" -
www.reddit.com/media?url=http...
"USA Sanctions Venezuela's Oil Sector"
www.reddit.com/media?url=http...
"Get Your Authentic Chinese Food Here"
www.reddit.com/media?url=http...
---
Playlist
Moon Channel News Radio:
• Moon Channel Atomic Radio
---
Please also check out more work from this video's thumbnail artist, @BobberWCC !
Twitter: bobberwcc
Twitch: twitch.tv/bobberwcc
More: bio.site/bobber - Hry
Ditch your dull browser, and download one that sings! Get Opera GX for FREE by going to www.operagx.gg/moonchannel.
I always thought it was ... counter intuitive at best to have an oil rig in the *Pacific* be the evac point for the shadow government. Even if it's still within the aegis of the US, wouldn't it be safer to find a hideaway somewhere in the Atlantic?
Please don't have Opera browser as a sponsor - it's a closed-source browser (users can't see what's going on behind the hood) owned by a chinese consortium.
no.
it's chromium based which means it eats ram like nobody's business.
本次赞助由中共资助，特别感谢“月亮频道”先生提供此空间
"1976 is 6 years closer to 1997 than 2024 is to 1997" hurt me
How about this. We are closer to 2077 than 1970.
The one that bothers me the most. 1997, and 2051 are the same distance from today.
gap between present day, cleopatra and pyramids - impressive.
gap between 2024, 1997 and 1976 - unsettling.
nah thats wrong i remember 1997 i don't remember no 1976
2001 is 23 years closer to 2000 than 2024 like if cried 😿
28:00
I love how the "Brazil was mentioned" has become a mainstay meme on this channel
this channel and theprimeagen ruined my brain with "Brazil mentioned" meme
🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷 wooooooo
24:15 "u can't tell whether i'm talking fallout or irl"
"national interests are way more important than corporate interests" is a dead giveaway. that's literal american propaganda
It is the 3rd more popular video on the channel so yeah
Huehue
gets me smiling like an idiot every time
I know it wasn't the intention there but the sentence "prisoners, drug addicts, and even Canadians" made me laugh harder than some of the jokes did
To be fair,some consider being Canadian a Mental Illness.
The bottom of society
@@thedudefromrobloxx😂😂😂
[Nate loved that]
You know what would fit the setting perfectly?
The Great War starting because the NORAD system was built by the lowest bidder, and had a false alarm.
The official cause of the war, at least from the writers from Interplay, was that the existence of FEV research and development got leaked to China, and they struck first to prevent the USA from using it.
That's very close to something that happened in the USSR in '83. Stanislav Petrov saw a report of launch of 5 (American) missiles and realized "if they were serious they'd be launching hundreds". He didn't report the strike, which likely would've triggered a Soviet "counter"-attack, to which America would counterattack.
The purported missile launch was a false alarm caused by _clouds._
(Maybe you were referencing him, in which case I must look silly for explaining the joke. It's a really interesting historical event, so I'll take that risk.)
@@bane2201 Or when they left a training exercise tape in one of NORAD's backup system. When the primary failed, the backup kicked in with the tape still in it, and everyone freaked out, lmao.
@@user-lr5kf5qf8e That's the thing that always makes me skeptical about a nuclear war. Even the most stead-fast lover of their nation would, well, NOT want to be the one responsible for ending the world.
No it wouldn't fit the setting perfectly at all lol. You're literally retconing a major pre-war plot point of a brutal, desperate, world war going nuclear between two super powers trying to acquire what remaining resources are left, by having it so le evil incompetent corporation were the ones that caused it. That COMPLETELY diminishes the severity of the situation to Disney levels of cartoonish incompetence
Bro intends to make a smaller video as a time filler, and then proceeds to make it 50 minutes. Fucking legend.
Absolutely a legend. And it shows in numbers. Not long time ago he was very small. I am really happy for him :)
The Song at the end Was dope. Holy moly
Big fan of the ending song, you did a great job covering a classic fallout song
Covering a classic -fallout song- late-40s pop song used in Fallout 3.
Somewhat more relevant to Fallout and human experimentation, the US forcibly removed Marshall Islanders, nuked the island chain, then moved the Marshallese back in order to study the longterm effects of radiation exposure back in the 50s. It wasn't until the 80s that the islanders were evacuated by Greenpeace even after rates of thyroid cancer were demonstrably higher in the small population. The Rongalap Atoll wiki article goes into this a bit.
inb4 zogbots defend the usa in the comments below
@@NeostormXLMAX Uh...dude that z word is the racist conspiracy theory that they're trying to take over the world / everything is secretly controlled by them. I'm not sure that you meant to go full bore on that. It really is that whole specific idea...
@@NeostormXLMAXIgnoring this to say the original comment is a bit misleading. In 1946, some Marshallese were forced to leave Bikini Atoll by the USA so they could use the area for nuclear testing, More than a decade later, a test went off that was over double the expected strength. A nearby atoll called Rongalap was then forcefully evacuated for the safety of the inhabitants, who were ready showing signs of radiation poisoning. This is when a secret task force was set up to study the radiation's effects -- without telling the islanders.
Keep in mind that, until this point, not much was known about the effects of radiation and even the most pessimistic American researchers underestimated it's power on humans and the environment. The US mistakenly allowed some islanders back to their homes at Rongalap after only three years, which caused more poisoning. After the US ignored their pleas to be brought back to safety, various NGOs stepped in to help evacuate the island.
Several decades later, the US government gave the islanders over 150 million dollars in compensation. They later sent a request for more money, which was denied.
Hope this helps 😊
@@Veilurebruh i bet your gonna say they underestimated the effects on hiroshima and nagasaki
@@NeostormXLMAX nope they didn't but they did turn a blind eye to the horrific Japanese scientist who did human experimentation, but was just torture that even a Nazi officer was disturbed. Who then proceeded to burn the victims to ashes when they lost the war and that warcrimes could catch up to them. The USA ignored those just like the Nazi scientist and recruited them.
I must say, hearing about the Logistical improbability (if not out right impossibility) of global nuclear eradication is somewhat comforting
Yeah honestly it's nice that I no longer have that on my list of "surprisingly numerous ways one species destroys this planet".
It was probably possible back in the days when the US had 40k warheads and the USSR had 55k. Also they theorized about something called a nuclear winter. Where enough dust would be thrown up in to the atmosphere that much of the sunlight would be blocked. Thus causing a global winter that would last for several years. Destroying crop yields and causing mass starvation. That is no longer possible either.
Today the US and Russia have about 4.5k warheads each on paper. Probably less in practice as they are very old and might not work anymore.
@@chuckwood3426 I mean, if your objective is just making the nuclear winter happen, you can still do it. Target forested area. What causes the nuclear winter isn't the nucleat blast itself. It's the massive fires that follow it. With Timber aplenty and the heat of the sun, even wetlands become a tinderbox. So you just have to target the right areas, the fires begin, they begin as monstruous infernos and then die out and the ash and soot goes in the atmosphere and dims the sun. Even though the plumes of debris and the mushroom cloud presented in the Fallout games are absolutely minuscule compared to even the lowest grade atomic weapon we developped.
It could work like 1816, also called "the year without a Summer" as a single volcano, Mt Tambora in indonesia exploded, the global temperature fell drastically to the point where 1816 got the coldest temperature recorded between 1766 and 2000, with a measly decrease of 0.4°C, crops failed en masse and multiple episodes of famines, food shortage and political insecurity followed, having themselves their own repercution.
Now, imagine a multicontinental wide fire capable of starving a world where shelter and food are already in crisis, and further than that, that just got itself out of a massive plague. Yeah. It would be tougher. Much tougher.
(Still after 200 years, you'd see a lot of natural verdant landscape, taiga and tundra even if that nuclear winter were to persist for decades, come on Bethesda )
I mean why couldn't it be a major factor though ya know? Like in reality big events like an extinction event don't happen all at once right? It's a chain event kinda thing most of the time right?
I'm ripped but I still think this makes sense
Don’t forget that the United States probably has a decently effective system for shooting down ICBM warheads.
Most of the air defense systems we have like Patriot and THAAD were developed specifically to knock ballistic missiles out of the sky, and have been doing so on a consistent basis for almost 40 years now.
The resource wars weren't fought over oil "alone." The lore clearly states that the resource wars were fought over oil, uranium and _WATER._ That's right, the availability of potable water was being depleted because so much of it was being used up for cooling all those fusion engines that were used everywhere. Mr. Handy fuel and Red Rocket stations didn't provide petrochemicals. It provided water with special additives to cool the nuclear reactions of the U-235 fueled reactors.
There were other resources fought over, too, such as the materials needed to make all those fusion engines.
Oh, and there are fan theories (and rumors based on the new TV show) that the "first shot" that set of the nuclear exchange in 2077 wasn't fired by either the U.S. or China, but by Vault-Tec itself, just to trigger the resulting war.
I don't think it's canon, but my favorite theory about the fallout universe is that the only difference with our world is that the transistor was never invented.
They do have transistors, but they invented them much later and were less commonly used/more archaic compared to ours.
Considering the USA added/adopted the 13 Commonwealths system in the 1960s, I think there's a lot more going on than just alternate computer development paths.
I think you mean that it's the sole divergence point that caused all the other changes.
@@jordanworton7003 Feels like kind of a retcon considering the only reference to them before Fo3 was use of the term 'chipset', which honestly feels a little vague given how differently tech works in Fallout.
Except that's not true at all though, the transistor not being invented (until later) wouldn't have an effect on the American culture staying locked in the 50's, or how the Soviet Union never collaped. Boiling it down to just one thing being different is incredibly reductive and disingenuous.
45:33 "No matter what happens, regardless of the variables, oil or no oil, nukes or no nukes, there will be war. Because although the conditions may change, war... war never changes". This is one the most accurate and profund quotes I have seen in a CZcams video and it perfectly explains the quote "war, war never changes"
always glad to hear more people mentioning the horrific shit that happened in Tuskegee. especially showing that it was recent enough that we have couple photographs of the victims.
Another horrible thing that happened was plutonium experiments on terminally ill patients. Deep state was and still is truly evil
Damn, I dunno whether it's badass or sad that Oleg was just so used to the gunfire in the streets of Moscow at the time that when asked about it, he just shrugged it off like it were just 'dem damn crazy kids and their fireworks'.
I kinda get it. If they're not shooting at me or in my direction... I'm gonna mind my own business I think. There's a bit of logic there.
Considering how these shootouts were just one expression of a country and economy in shambles, where the law enforcement was weak and corrupt enough to allow criminal organizations comprised of desperate individuals who, within less than a generation, had to adapt to whole new economy that, instead of being centralized, prioritized private businesses that, within a general lack of restrictions on private ownership and individual regions, cities and towns that held economic meaning only within the context of providing a single product or service that were now left unable to self-sustain their own population that now had to compete not just with their neighbors but the global market, were only capable of growing through, sometimes literally, cutthroat tactics, to grow and proliferate, leading to the rise of oligarchs who themselves would go on to define many of these industries and, through that, gain access to political power, further establishing their power and lobbying in their own economic interests... yeah, pretty sad.
Ever hear how one of the masculine figures in your life was basically a target of an honest to God assassination attempt with improvised explosives due to being a part of a small, city block wide extortion gang? Yeah, these kinda stories weren't even anything crazy in the 90's
Sad.
@@thosebloodybadgers8499probably one of the most in-depth and educated explanation for why these things happen. Congrats man. That was really well written
@@thosebloodybadgers8499 Yeah the USSR was bad but life for ordinary Russians plummeted after the fall of the RSFSR. Don't forget the extreme inflation and also a failed war
His pain is immeasurable but completely relatable
"Never let the enemy know, where you attack." ~ Sun Gobi Dessert Tzu
Moon seems to have forgotten that while we might not have reorganized into 13 commonwealths, we are divided into 11 court districts with sometimes slightly different implementations of laws.
It's easy to forget how complicated the American Governing bodies get.
Work life balance is difficult at the best of times. Don't let anybody, even your fans, pressure you into spending more time on something than you get enjoyment out of that thing. If you like being a lawyer and have found a good balance with making youtube videos on the side as a hobby, then there's absolutely no reason to start streaming on twitch or making tiktoks or whatever. This ain't your job and you don't owe us anything (rather, the opposite). Good on you for knowing your limits and just saying "Nah, I'm good the way things are." 👍
as things get worse somewhere, they simotaniusly get better somewhere else, the entire system of this world.
The Kendrick jump scare was crazy lmao
24:00
Oh I assumed you meant the images used in the us-canada info 10:00
Thank you so much for getting into fission reactors as an alternative energy source that we here in the USA don't take seriously. Though I must say, I did not know half of what you were talking about with the Fallout lore as that was a train I never boarded, you explained it succinctly enough where I could follow along.
Too bad there wasn't any tax law though 😂 still a great video!
I feel people often underestimate the geopolitical dimension of nuclear fission. The availability of uranium is limited, and only few countries produce it in large quantities. One reason why the 2023 coup in Niger was a big deal, was that France imported around 20% of it's uranium from there. In a world where countries increase their dependence on fissile material, uranium has just as much potential to cause global conflicts as oil.
@@astreinerboi also it's not just power generation and nuclear warheads that fissile material is used for, but also medical research as well helium harvesting. I personally support nuclear power generation because of the environmental factor, it doesn't pump tons of carbon into the atmosphere. I know neither does wind, solar or hydroelectric, but we don't really have the battery technology to use those to their full capacity at this time.
@@astreinerboi That ends up being true of virtually any technology. Using renewable energy requires large amounts of copper for grid expansion, as well as scarce critical materials needed for generators. If fusion power became available, there would also be issues with sufficient fuels. Long term energy stability requires both moderation of consumption and global cooperation, regardless of energy source.
@@Ash-Bun While I fully get the arguments in favor of nuclear, I still don't understand the battery argument. Maybe I'm missing something but the solution seems to be to just make more fucking batteries, right? We don't have enough? Okay??? SO MAKE MORE????
Like yes I understand nuclear is easier to get into RIGHT NOW but what if we just. Made enough batteries for the EVEN CLEANER energy types? So that we can have the CLEAN _EST_ energy RIGHT NOW??? Maybe I'm just stupid, but it genuinely does feel like, to me, that the simple solution has been simply not thought of yet by nukeheads
@@SnoFitzroy the problem is scale, currently the tech world is facing a small crisis because while new technologies are advancing super fast, they're also consuming more power, and battery tech hasn't advanced passed lithium ion batteries in a marketable way. Where that causes problems in terms of renewable energy is storage, because most of the energy produced by solar and wind is mostly in the warmer months, you would need to store energy for the winter months. And that's not even mentioning battery depletion or the sheer size of the batteries you'd need.
Head empty, missed this: another problem with storage is how unstable lithium ion batteries are when it comes to extreme temperatures.
Tbh As a mechanic I can tell you that there are multiple uses for oil where finding oil in a machine powered electrically or whatever makes sense given it can also be used for heat denser cooling fluid or ofcs lubrication. The type of oils don't get specified but typical synthetic mineral oils are used constantly even in machines using electric motors
Even so, the scenario envisioned in Fallout, where literally all the oil in the world is used up, is very unlikely, *especially* if oil isn’t being used as a primary energy source and is mainly used for industrial products.
@@JurzGarz Yeah for sure. Just saying that finding oil in a none combustion machine is not that wild given oil≠oil.
I suspect mr handy fuel is related to the flamethrower
Discovering the source and story of FEV in The Glow is one of my favorite and long-standing memories in all of my gaming history. It's such a creepy and ominous place, with a great design to slowly reveal the secrets. Great video Moony, thank you!
"How Geopolitically Realistic is Fallout's Great War?"
In one word: uncomfortably
I’ve never consumed anything Fallout related except for the Minecraft mash up pack, this was pretty amazing to watch honestly.
Wow it turns out Mad Max was way more realistic than I thought. I always found it strange that nobody seemed to care about gas scarcity for their vehicles while they fought to the death over water.
True
They fight over "guzzoline" as in the Road Warrior as well.
I think in a globalized and hyper-specialized world, you shouldn't understimate how the destruction of capital cities, major industrial centers, data centers etc. would result in massive indirect loss of life even in areas far from the nuclear blasts due to collapse of logistics and communication... not to mention what a global nuclear winter could do to food production and ecosystems.
Just imagine only the internet ceasing to exist overnight and what it would do to current society...
It'd be a major disruption and kill many people directly or indirectly, entire countries can collapse, and we will regress back a lot, but the point is everything won't turn into a fallout style wasteland where even 200 years later cities like Shady Sands, New Reno, or New Vegas with less people than Uruk (at its peak) are the hubs of civilization.
@@thelakeman2538 don't forget you can't compare city sizes in games to real cities.
Even GTA has not the same population than the real cities it depicts.
Because in all honesty, do you want to walk/drive the same distances in a game as in reality ?
@@achimdemus-holzhaeuser1233 I'm not talking in game, obviously games are limited and have game design considerations, even in the tv show shady sands is said to have had like 35k people, NV with strip, freeside, sewers, and north vegas included probably only has around the same no. of people (well maybe we'll know more about that in S2 of the tv show), certainly none of them have more than 50k people which would be the size of Uruk in the lower end, yeah I don't think we are going back to copper age or early bronze age level populations.
Nuclear winter has been way exaggerated, it wouldn't do that much.
i need a fallout thing, being a show or game, to just show that south america is basically unchanged from ours, and is just chilling
My favourite fan theory is that the rest of the world is perfectly fine, it's just the USA that's gone to hell
@@SpoopySquidi'm imagining china's just a cycle of uniting and then shattering into a bunch of warlord rump states like they were historically
@@AmyCherryLMAOeach chinese dynasty lasted longer than the usa even existed lmao
@@NeostormXLMAX its quite low bar to be honest
@@NeostormXLMAX holy shit yea now that i think about it, you're right
As someone who has never cared about fallout, this video was very interesting and entertaining
This video makes me really want a Fallout game set in China now
I i really want one but there are already hundreds of post apocalyptic chinese games all sci fi, china seems to be obsessed with sci fi compared to japan, unless its wuxia etc
Im already planning on a chinese wu xia rpg, that is secretly post apocalyptic hundreds of years in the future
Or set somewhere out in europe no information about them aside from invading the middle east. Love to know what factions form if there is any survivors in there since there is no vault tec influence what kind of story would they make. I doubt they would make any fallout games set outside of america tho since all of the fallout games is somehow related to vault tec.
Fallout games set anywhere except America is a sin.
Many fans would go ballistic when the "evil soul-sucking Reds" aren't evil whatsoever, and government corruption is dealt with harshly, and the people are the ones actually in charge (i.e. real democracy).
While nuclear war is a horrific thing that shouldn't happen, there's another strike against the Falllout scenario:
Nuclear fallout from nuclear weapons is actually relatively short lived. Remember that Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not only rebuilt: They are BIG cities and as far as I know, there's no places in either city that are irradiated by the bombings.
Granted, nuclear weapons of today are way more powerful, but even then: The half-life of the materials left after these sort of nuclear detonations are decades at best. The reason people tend to think nukes leave areas uninhabitable is that they think every nuclear bomb is basically just dropping Chernobyl on someone, not aware that nuclear reactors use very different materials and those disasters involve very different reactions and effects.
If an all-out nuclear war were to break out, it wouldn't even wipe out any countries unless they're really small. Even then, it's more likely than not they could just rebuild. The two cities we already did blow up with nukes so far not only rebuilt, they're major population centers again.
I think the real problem is the debris that would get into atmosphere, causing temperature to temporarily cooldown.
Volcanoes already do that once every so often, such as in 1815.
@@DukstlessDon't say that! Some unlearned congressperson might try launching nukes to buy time on climate change!
While that can be argued, there's also the societal knock-on effects from wiping a major metropolitan area off the map. Even in the case where only the top ten cities in the United States were hit with nukes and everything else was left untouched (Which is effectively implausible at that scale. There are too many military targets that come first.) the fact that a good chunk of commercial and financial hubs are gone would grind the nation to a halt. There's also industrial capacity locked into those areas too, where a lot of the goods we come to rely on would be on hold for the foreseeable future.
Then there's also the gruesome fact that despite their almost limitless destructive capacity, in the above scenario, there would definitely be survivors and refugees. Considering the lackluster response to COVID, the US would be completely incapable of handling potentially millions of people in desperate need of aid, food, and shelter in areas that are not equipped for that in the here and now.
While you wouldn't be fighting Deathclaws or singing 50's standards, you'd be living in a very schizophrenic time where you would be launched back to the early 19th century at times. It'd be an American version of Threads.
the first 2 fallouts follow this pretty well and then theirs bethesdas fallout
Good point, but don't discount dirty bombs or salted bombs which are intentionally designed to generate more fallout than standard bombs. The belligerents in the great war probably targeted nuclear power plants and missile silos which would also contribute. But overall I think you're right
I love how in the fallout verse taiwan just go poof. One would think the worst battle would be there
Consider that in our real world China refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan exists at all. To them, that's just another part of China. It's not unreasonable to believe this fictional version of China agrees with the real one.
At the time china and the usa were friendly and people assumed china would merge with taiwan peacefully, which is also why even ultra natuonalist japan wank series like mahouka show that china owns taiwan in the future
Go to war over...vacuum tubes.
Watching the Fallout show and Gundam 00 back to back was an interesting experience
Its called raygun gothic or atompunk asthetics
00 is objectively the superior gundam series. The episode where they break *spoiler* out of prison in season 2 is my absolute favorite episode of anything ever
Isn't the Fallout world also a world where the transistor doesn't exist, hence the large, bulky, sometimes analog devices?
It was invented but at a way later point in time compared to ours. I think it was like, the 2050's or 2060's when they finally invented the transistor.
They have that but they invented much later
@@nagger8216nope that's semiconductor chips in fallout universe that's around 2000 era
Fluidics might be a thing.
the transistor still exists.
song at the end was wonderful
2066 The north will remember. RIP all the brave souls lost along the Alaska highway. Really hope they straighten out that roller coaster.
I wonder how many FAQ answers we can get him to turn into songs now that there is precedent.
44:48 A comment from Taiwan simply for the beautifully shot Taipei 101.
That ending song had me giggly uncontrollably, thanks so much for this video
He said the line!
14:00 To be fair, Canada is pretty revolting. Source: I live here
wat
Looks pretty in pictures at least.
Not more than burgerstan
Western canada is so good, though, especially Alberta.
Moony you have a really good singing voice.
I personally don't see the entire world getting nuked the way it is depected in the franchise. By the time the games take place you could see a new Mexican Empire, explorers from Indonesia in NA, and all sorts of other interesting things. Fallout is so commited to Americana that it has to pretend like the rest of the world got deleted
Well it's still a fiction dedicated to tell a particular story, so
The Fallout franchise is strictly an "Americana" satire, it doesn't dwelve about other countries for a reason.
The world in Europe, MIddle East, and East Asia were in pretty bad state. We know from Raul that Mexico City was nuked and from Tenpenny the UK wasn't good.
personally i like to view it as the rest of the world is recovering from the resource shortages. even before the war things weren't going great, and a nuclear war taking out 2 major exporting countries would make that even worse. so maybe they weren't destroyed from nuclear fire, but plain old mundane food shortages and civil unrest could set back their industrial progress a few decades if not much more. not all crisises for a culture have to be so dramatic as a nuclear bomb
Blame Bethesda making the world +200 years post war look worse than Fallout 1 had it 84 years after. Fallout 2 and NV actually had the world rebuilding and civilization rising.
Hello. Can I use some of the material and research from this video of yours to adapt it in my non-English article, with proper attribution of course? Thanks for your attention.
Hi disketa! Of course! And if you'd like any of the sources I used, please don't hesitate to reach out directly.
@@moon-channel Thanks!
This before the ‘Soft Power’ vid…
Just one small thing. You cannot treat late-stage syphilis with antibiotics because Treponema pallidum is now in your organs, not the characteristic black ulcers unlike the early stages where it resides mostly in the first ulcer where bacteria enter and then after weeks to months in the exanthema. The early stage can be divided into those two and after the exanthema subsides you're kinda screwed(the late stage starts about a year to two after the initial infection), although in that stage there is much lower chance of mother-child transmission (about 30% I think and you can prevent it if diagnosed).
Also if you want to make a vid about something really depressing look into Bacteria's progressing antibiotic resistance. In 2050 we will probably have as many deaths because of this as of cardiovascular-related diseases.
Physician here. Actually, you DO treat 3rd stage syphilis with antibiotics. What else could you treat it with? Bleach?
@@rodrigomatos1636 I may have worded myself incorrectly. While you can treat syphilis with something like Penicillin G you can't cure it, since the drug cannot fully penetrate to areas where the bacteria resides, or at least this is what I remember from my lecture a few weeks ago, but I may be wrong or misremember something. I'm studying Medical Diagnosis in Poland which focuses mostly on diagnosis not treatment so there wasn't much talking about what to do with 3rd stage syphilis patients so I won't argue that I'm fully correct
@@rodrigomatos1636 I'd say bleach is a pretty good antibiotic. It even works on people!
@JedrzejStepniewski you are not entirely incorrect. Even 3rd stage syphilis can be cured with the proper antibiotics, however some diagnostic tests will still show up as positive, even decades after the infection has been properly cured. This happens mostly with treponemic tests (ELISA, Fta-abs) that test for the specific antibodies against treponema pallidum. This is why, when investigating syphilis, for example, in pregnancy, you should not order just one type of test if a patient already has a previous history of syphilis, but a treponemic and a non-treponemic test, that can also be used to ensure that treatment has had proper effect (for example, a VDRL dilution of more than 2, p.e; 1:128 to 1:32, after a couple months of the last dose of treatment) because a positive treponemic test can just indicate a serologic scar, not a new infection.
I hope you have enjoyed my Ted talk
Also, as far as I am aware, first stage syphilis does not usually present with blackened ulcers, but pinkish/purplish ulcers, that are usually painless or only mildly painful, and go away after a few weeks even if untreated.
New Vegas being the second best fallout after fallout 2! Hell yeah, same opinion here man. Had to pause the video there to say this, I love finding fellow Fallout oldhats. Not that I begrudge those who have only played modern fallout, but Fallout 2 is just special. Though, my favorite Fallout moment of all time is the end of Fallout 1 when you have enough information to show The Master how wrong his plan is. That speech both voice actors deliver is one of my favorite moments of gaming of all time.
They sure are I don’t get people who think 3 or 4 is better
@@FSR-1345 3 because it revives the franchise and 4 because its highly moddable and much newer
In the 1950s Ford made nuclear power concept car: Ford Nucleon
It had no actual nuclear reactor, but it looks like a Fallout car.
The nucluer drinks
“War, war never changes”
Somehow, in the Japanese version the same line reads
“人は同じ過ちを繰り返す”
Perhaps it’s a reference to the line of Amuro Ray from Gundam.
Personally I prefer the Japanese version, which means, humans repeat the same mistake.
Speaking of Gundam
I’d say it is a surprisingly interesting thematic companion to Fallout
Especially 00.
The fact that the Japanese localization uses a Gundam reference for that iconic line is kind of awesome actually, especially with how important nuclear power is to the UC timeline which Amuro is in
@@phoenixfritzinger9185both have ray gun gothic asthetics
The end goal of the vault experiments is to make a generational space ship to colonize another planet
Ooohh good call!
I think one thing that is neglected in the Nuclear Doctrine section: If you use 1960's nuclear warhead information, I think that it would be interesting to look at the production rate of nuclear weapons in the 60s and project it accordingly to Fallout's world. Like if Nuclear Weapon production never slowed down and kept going for 110 years. Additionally things like the automated Nuclear Silo's in Fallout 76 Likely increase the amount of weapons that the fallout countries have
For no reason this somehow reminds me of that MIT Tech Review of "You promised me Mars colonies, instead we've got Facebook". Quite funny that the predictions go comically wrong all the time, especially morbidly hilarious where people think there'd be some grandiose final showdown, instead, we just got a whimper/wet-fart to signify the end.
Thanks for hearing my rambling
The ending has turned all of my bad feelings into good feelings. ♥
It’s the busy time at work for me. Seeing this video come out at the end of the week feels like a perfect treat. Love what you do, Moony.
Thank you very much for making this video. It’s a fascinating and well made video essay on its own, but it means a lot to me personally as well. Fallout is one of my biggest special interests and has been for nearly a decade, but in recent years as real world events have started to seem more and more similar to the timeline of the games it has sometimes made me anxious to play them and I’ve felt guilty for finding so much joy in something so bleak when it feels like we might be headed in a similar direction. Your measured and realistic look at how likely it is for that to actually happen has definitely eased my worry about that and I really appreciate it :)
I love the ending song! It's so relatable.maybe it's a bit ironic, but I think it can be released as a single :3
It was sheer genius! And a great voice!
For me I belive the major divergence of the two time lines is that the brentonwoods proposals were rejected, and NATO was never formed. America, while not absent from the world, is much more isolated and isn't providing freedom of navigation. Thus south america and much of south east Asia persist in pre-industrial status and Japan never recovers from WW2 like it does in our reality. Even much of Europe remains in ruins or is just barely starting to fully recover by the time of the resource wars.
on an actual historical note, this really shows how much the US basically built europe and japan basically from the ground up. all these countries no matter the alignment had basically been bombed to rubble, and without the huge amount of money and resources the US gave towards rebuilding infastructure and industry, europe probably would have taken a few decades more just to get back at the prewar level. This is why The US has such a seemingly good relationship with germany and especially japanese cultures after the war, its that they literally invested huge amounts of money to make their economies function
"Even much of Europe remains in ruins or is just barely starting to fully recover by the time of the resource wars."
Europe is stated to have formed into a commonwealth in 20th century. It invaded middle east in 2052 starting the 'Resource Wars' with nuclear weapons (which prompted the Vault program) and after the war ended in 2060, collapsed into warring nations.
*Bretton Woods Conference
I'm very surprised fallout is getting a lot of attention recently!
It just had a prime show that was decently well done- which is really the best you can ask for nowadays.
@@giantmasterswordIt says a lot that a show that gets West Coast fans angry is still not bad.
@@EbonySaints It makes sense though. It's possible for an adaption to get lore wrong, but still capture the essence of the source material and be competently made, which is what I understand to have happened.
Fans invested in that particular part of the lore will be upset because it's messing with what they like the most, but fans of the series in general and the general public won't know or care, since most fans will be happy the feeling was preserved and the public will be happy it's a good show.
"because although the conditions of it may change... War, war never changes"
That closer gave me shivers. Overall great video.
Tim Cain, creator of Fallout 1 and 2, has been very active on CZcams and answering questions from fans. It might be worth asking him his own thoughts on some of these ideas. After all, it's rare and even somewhat novel that we get the chance to communicate with the creators of cultural hits themselves while they are still around.
It's amazing how I learn more about our world in your videos about videogames than in any news channel of my country. Great work moony! Love your videos
I was just thinking about rewatching another one of your videos! Thank you moon channel
Brazil not mentioned and I'm very happy
I AM IN LOVE WITH THIS VIDEO. You did such a good job establishing a story and explaining all the details. I also LOVED the song at the end, you are so talented !!!
im so happy to see something about fallout from you! the way you interlock real world history with whatever youre talking about has always been fascinating. fallout has always been an alltime favourite franchise for me, so seeing you cover it really made my day, and hell - whole week really. if theres more fallout where that came from im very excited!
I like your analytical, narrative, and editing style, and I like Fallout. I’d be happy to see any future videos on the Fallout universe that you care to do.
I support anything you decide to do Fallout or not.
Loved this video, felt extremely well researched and like you fr just enjoy geopolitics and understand fallout to a great degree
The largest surprise in this video is not that Fallout is a potentially viable projection of geopolitics, but that Moony's singing voice and guitar skill is pretty baller. Great cover, and a mood all around
It's surreal having a Venezuelan mention here on Moon Channel, and one that doesn't involve political incompetence and crime at that.
Yay i would love to hear about Fallout once in a while!
It always hurts to hear France being mentioned in Nuclear research, when everything was done to kill any edge we had in that research. So many reactors shut down and projects stopped...
I’ve never heard nor seen any of your content before, but this was an amazing, dare I say perfect video essay about Fallout and how close it could (can) be to reality, I hope to see more content in the future (And what an amazing song at the end)
Your song covers are worth sub bro 10/10😂
Is moon gonna mention the big lore reveal from the show
Anyway you do wonderful work
I'd say barring a few minor details, and the fact that we're a little over 50 years early we're basically right on course for the great war to actually happen.
The end song parody was PHENOMENAL
That ending song was the best, 10/10
Whenever I see people ranting about how silly and unrealistic "Bethesda's fallout" games and how new vegas and the originals are grittier and more realistic... I just take a minute and reflect how absolutely ridiculous the whole franchise premise is, without even getting into minutiae or lore.
How it exists under a very cold war minded "total nuclear annihilation" that couldnt ever realistically happen.
When the country was currently obsessed with middle east tensions and "dwindling oil reserves."
But ive always though... So much of society isnt a realistic target and wouldnt even be destroyed.
Whos gonna blow up Perth austrailia? Or Newfoundland? Or new zealand? Or well... The list is long. But even after a large scale nuclear event... The majority of the planet including John and Jessie Andrews from midstate Iowa would be just fine.
I think people forget that you can just like a thing without having to try to say something else is worse along the way, fallout is my favorite wacky rpg franchise even if it doesnt make sense😄
Mate, your content is exceptionally good! I'd love it if you made additional Fallout content or content in general. Keep doing what you're doing, you got this!
eeee I just discovered this channel but I love this! You go really in-depth with details and have a calming voice to listen to. I love fallout so much and I watch basically any video that talks about it so I'd def watch more fallout videos if you wanted to make them!
A nerrel upload and an moon channel upload? Today is a good day!
17:15 So in other words they predicted China's rise in geopolitical power?
21:30 _Of course_ Regan had a hand in China's economic growth... That explains a lot really.
They didn't predict the fall of the Soviet Union. The decision to change Russia into China was done months prior to the games development (starting in 1994) - the Soviet Union had already fallen for 3 years.
@@TitanKaempfer Oh right I keep forgetting it wasn't later into the 90s. I was only four years old at the time so I guess it's normal I'd forget that.
No they didnt, it was a coincidence that china was picked, people were saying china would collapse since 1976 and even today and people believed it 😂😂😂
@@NeostormXLMAX Of course it was a coincidence, that's beside the point. I've once had a dream about a virtual world inside a Sega Saturn that somehow predicted what PlayStation Home was supposed to be like (Sony however failed to deliver). A prediction by coincidence is still a prediction. Carl Jung would have a field day with this concept if he was aware of it.
China's economic growth was due to them working like dogs and using American greed against themselves by offering cheap labor. What do you think Reagan had to do with China and why?
Im not really a Fallout-er, but this was a very good video, very informative about many things, and also with some great little bits of comedy. Love your content Moony and also that was a lovely song at the end.
I think there is three things that need to be highlighted regarding the geopolitical reality of Fallout within a modern context above all else both already gone over by this and not.
1. The Fallout Universe never abandoned its high consumerist culture, and never had a fertility crisis like our timeline and thus while our world expects to see many nations diminish in population by the 2050s, the population in Fallout is only skyrocketing with the USA having potentially not just tens of millions but hundreds of millions of people higher, especially with Canada annexed into the nation resulting a nigh endless hunger for resources.
2. Many of the technological advancements that allowed massive oil discoveries IRL don't really exist in Fallout and while some oil discoveries would still be made, it would be much, much less oil than were have IRL and that's without the high resource demand the Fallout Universe has in consideration. This is important as ALOT of advanced technology and modern products require oil and would create a necessity for oil even if the USA in Fallout shifted to a purely nuclear power network. Countless consumer, industrial, scientific, and military products would be under constant risk of shortages if proper oil resources could not be secured. Simply speaking the USA cant survive without oil, China cant exist without oil, NO ONE can exist without oil in sufficient quantities if not for energy purposes, but for EVERYTHING. Hell, we put oil in our FOOD for example.
3. Venezuela all on its own is something id bring attention to namely that when fallout 1 was made Venezuela had yet to become a socialist state, and while it had already nationalized its oil back in the 70s the nation itself was still rather capitalist, and still relatively within the American sphere of influence when Fallout 1 came out, furthermore resources like oil are much easier for a Venezuelan strongman or corporate security to protect then the revolution and resistance famous Mexico which in my view makes as drastic an intervention as an invasion unnecessary. In all likelihood Venezuela had another coup with a now strong man willing to sell oil the highest bigger which is mostly the USA with much of the oil industry probably privatized and sold to various corporations, primarily American interests like Poseidon. Mexico meanwhile is also just plain closer to the USA and has alot of resources besides just oil like gold and various other minerals to exploit with a much easier logistical network to utilize than pretty much most of the rest of Latin America making it ironically the most ideal of any Latin American nation to occupy (its all bad and difficult for various reasons but Mexico has alot in its favor for an occupation) especially if the USA is only bothering to protect the resources its extracting. In this regard why Mexico is invaded and Venezuela is not I believe is pretty realistic geopolitically especially if the USA plays to the existing militant power brokers in Mexico like the cartels letting them run rampant so longer as they don't interfere with American interests essentially carving up Mexico into there own borderline warlord fiefdoms.
This was a very deep video
Moony, your singing voice is wonderful!
the song at the end was genuienly so beautiful, I think you are my new favourite youtuber
Nicely done, Moony. The ending song was definitely a vibe too.
I love Moon Channel's videos so much... The historical depth and Moony's skills make for phenomenal videos each time.
Opera GX is cool and all, but generative AI is definitely not
Whats the problem with writing ai i find it quite fun ngl. Ai written news articles are horrid
Lmao werid, because most people would say the opposite, having problems with opera but like ai, and frankly brave browser does it better since it lets you upload your own models and weights
The rise of natural gas also plays a major role in the diverging resource expectations.
I unironically really enjoyed the end credit song hahah, you've got a great singing voice! :)
Ooh moony tu cancioncita te salió tan bien que me mando en un bingo bango bucle de escucharlas por una hora mientras hago los quehaceres
Loviu moony
Hi mom
What an honor! You'll always be the Wayne Gretsky of aoe2 streamers in my book, Dave.
It’s kinda wild how in 1990s hearing that there were gun shots fired on streets of Russia was enough for an American to believe that Russia won’t be a political threat for a while. Especially knowing how “safe” some of the American streets are 😅
And another glaring gap in Fallout lore is omiting Australia from the world picture as it is far enough away to avoid being bombed during the world and somewhat shielded from fallout from the northern hemisphere
(It would be funny if one of the random encounters would be a meeting with Hi-Tech ANZAC patrol that is on the expedition to US to collect some Deathclaws that become popular pet back in 'Stralia🤣)
The condition, method, and goal of war has shifted significantly over the course of human history. I have always disliked the phrase: “war never changes”. 45:50
I don't disagree that the material conditions of war changes, but when Interplay used the phrase in the first fallout game I think they were aware of the apparent contradiction. You have a world shaped by nuclear war and evidence of a massive industrial scale conflict everywhere, but now those players are gone, and now the biggest threat to the wasteland is an army of super mutants. Clearly war has changed. I believe the phrase mostly refers to the human toll, that people are cast away and die and we are lesser for. The stain on the human condition that war is, that is what the phrase is referring to.
I always believed that the phrase “War never changes” is applied super vaguely, like in the sense that almost every war is about one side has something that the other wants or wants to stop
I think "war never changes" refers to the abstract damages it causes - the loss of life, the loss of emotional and mental health for everyone even tangentially involved, and the reversion of the on the ground soldier to Survival Mode.
@@XragebootsX Well yeah that's the definition of a WAR, where you fight over things you want. Without that you just have diplomacy
@thunderspark1536they could fight without wanting to get something
Thank you very much for the Video! A really good analysis of how other nations could respond in this new fallout alternative history.
The only thing that was a headscratcher for me is when you discussed MAD in the fallout setting, why you used the number of nuclear weapons in China and the US in 2024 and not the more appropriate Cold War era numbers, which the setting of fallout is mentally stuck on. Additionally, using the number on 2024 instead of 2077 is a massive time gap. So we could expect 32k nukes for the US and 30k for China at the very least, which was the peak bomb in real history. With 50 more years to build additional nuclear capabilities, that number should increase further.
I'm bopping my head to your end credits song. Wonderful quality. Subscribed!