Why self-driving cars are a LIE!
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- čas přidán 29. 12. 2021
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We’ve got some news for you… Self-driving cars are a LIE!
Now we hear you - you’ve probably seen a couple of self-driving cars shown off by some manufacturers. And what’s more, you’ve also probably heard that new Teslas come including self-driving tech!
Well here’s the thing… Any self-driving car you’ve seen from a manufacturer is only a concept. There are currently NO self-driving cars in production! And what’s more, when it comes to Tesla, although they do apparently include self-driving tech, we can assure you that it’s temperamental at the best of times!
So the question is - will we ever see a self-driving car go into production in our lifetime?! There’s only one way to find out… Join Mat for his latest video and see for yourself!
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First.
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Fourth :P. You win again carwow xD
4th
Second
Now f** way
"Cars that drive themselves were invented ages ago. They are called taxis."
-James May
😂😂 I always think of this
ahahahhahahaah😂😂 when did he say that?
@@ilmelangolo 1987
😂😂😂😂😂👌🏽
James May the goat.
“When will people started to realize flying cars are just aero planes, because if your car flys why the bloody would you drive anywhere?”
- James May
Maybe because some people want to enjoy both driving and flying. Like one day you'd like to feel the rush when you speed up on a fastlane, and other times you don't want to get stuck in traffic so you fly
@@George-Chris having wings will spoil the driving dynamics
cars can fly when you are in a race car and crash and get yeeted in the sky
@Aryan A well maybe something like a flying license combined with a driving license would work. I'd say it should be similar to a helicopter. As for the weight, maybe scientists will find lighter materials for such cars, combined with lighter engines (I mean electric engines are probably already much lighter than diesel or petrol ones)
@@anshulrao5581 retractable wings would be quite something though
It’ll never happen in the UK unless roads are drastically redesigned. Cars parked on the side of the road just scare the car, thin roads, roundabouts, strange junctions... It’ll only ever work for motorways here
I'd give it a year, two tops. This video is incredibly uninformed.
I very much doubt it will be different anywhere else. I'm sure no matter how good the motorways are, every single country in the world will have its own network of "bad" roads, and a few may not even have good enough motorways.
Ayyyyye my boy harry, love your vids, so simple with the how to’s
@@jordanshim380 Then you need to own one! They're rubbish. My journey yesterday (300 mile round trip) had at least two moments of sheer terror as my car made two crazy decisions.
Stop beeing such a boomer, "will never happen" is about the most delusional take ive seen, you would have said back in the days that mobile phones are impossible
I've been to India before the pandemic and I wonder how a self driving car would handle the traffic over there 🧐. Wouldn't surprise me if the computer crashes and shuts the car down entirely 😄.
I think one solution to chaotic driving in India is take driving completely out of human control 🙃. Having said that technology can't be prepared to handle all the situations at the moment anywhere. And Elon Musk knows how to stay in news.
Well now it's much easier after the pandemic.
And then the thirty people riding o top of the car will have to find alternate transportation.
Well infact - if ALL cars were self driving in India, the traffic would be much better. The humans are the ”chaos theory” per see.
But since India probably never will have all their vehicles as self driving, the dream of self driving cars is just a dream. On top of that there is the cast system, were thoose higher up in the system thinks they have the right to go through the traffic faster than the others.
@@bjornnordgren7258 I think the way to a more sustainable, better organized and less busy traffic is not to get everyone in their own self driving car. We should focuse more on public transportation instead of wasting tons of money into ridiculous ideas like self driving cars and pods traveling through tubes.
The fact that we still have pilots and train drivers shows how difficult it is to fully automate transportation, and self-driving cars are a massively more difficult problem to solve than those.
True!
@@chad9331 I know there are some automated trains out there, but only where the whole line was created specifically to be automated. If we were close to having fully automated cars then all trains would be using the same tech by now.
What you said about the need for pilots applies even more for cars, which is why we may never see true self-driving cars.
@@chad9331Most, but not all, which is the problem. The number of scenarios for a self driving car to cope with is infinite and manual intervention will always need to be there to cope with them.
No, that just shows how much power the Unions have.
One of the reasons that there are still train driver is that unions are blocking its implementation to protect their members jobs
Everyone who has been to Naples, Italy, knows that a self driving car there is absolutely impossible.
The Savastano's wouldn't allow it anyway
Have you ever driven in mumbai at rush hour?
@@vikkysawant1271 I've just heard about it, and apparently it's absurd
@@LM-oh3vw well im from india its scary as hell
Lol yes or Istanbul in Turkey haha 😛 test a Tesla around Arc de triomphe in Paris 😮
There is a period in the history of everything that works when it didn't. Never is a long time. It may take 5, 10, 20 years but level 4/5 self driving will happen eventually.
Teleportation doesn’t work currently. Some things just aren’t possible…..
It’s a pretty bold claim to say that human technology will stay on current status que for the next billion or more years to come. It took us a lot of investments, man power and time to get us to the moon or building a pyramid. But inventively we got there. It may take 20 years, 50 or 500 years, but as long as the technology advances and get better every year, there will be a point in time where we can pat us on the back and say that we have self driving cars. There’s no don’t in my mind.
@@gytefisk Jeremy is right it will happen eventually. anyone who lacks vision is simply wrong. sorry
It's already here. Not sure what Matt has been reading but this tech is a few years away.
@@gary3074 self driving cars isn’t as special as teleportation… give it time and we will have self driving cars…
Well said. My industry had its own experience with overheated projections by analysts. 40 years ago everyone wanted to be in the industrial robotics business. Money was easy to get, and people were becoming rich by taking companies public before ever shipping a product. Within 5 years reality had set in because robotics is hard. The actual market was less than 1/10 what analysts predicted. Oh, and the analysts had moved on to predicting the stellar future of the next Cinderella technology.
Hey Mat I'm waiting for the drag race with a Bugatti Chiron SS against a Rimac Nevera make it soon
Rimac would smoke Chiron easy
You think they can just get 2 insane cars whenever they want 🤔
Still waiting for yianny v mat sprint
@@WS-lt4nd Their have been so many
No we need Rimac vs The Plaid
I'm all for driver assistance systems like pre-collision assist but hell no to self-driving. I want to drive myself.
Could be useful if you drive thousands of miles at once, like big truck drivers do. That could help them a lot. Or when you're tired/drunk, much better if you'd have such systems where you don't drive at all
@@George-Chris I do lot of driving and I bought Comma AI Openpilot system to my car. Makes driving more chill and relaxing.
Wrong perspective. Driving yourself is fine. What about all of the other drivers that don't give a crap about crashing into you?
@@CharlesBangwiner its always the „others“ and everybody is the best driver , car accidents are the biggest unsolved riddle 😀
@@TschingisTube IKR! This people are fools.
The must have feature for crowded city drivers, driverless search for parking lots and self park. We can just get off and send it off to hunt for parking spaces. Bonus feature to detect parking attendants and auto leave.
In 2002 the first Roomba came out and even though it was said to be a autonomous vacuum it was not what you wanted from a autonomous vacuum, it was more of a gimmick. Today 20 years later autonomous vaccums work amazing and are truly autonomous.
good thing roombas aren't lethal when in motion
Lol, when the roombas malfunction which they do because i have one. Nobody dies.
@@donn.4766 Hardly get injured too lol
Right... because slowly moving in 2D space and instantly stopping when some object appears in front unexpectedly, is the same as self-driving cars...
It takes 20 years to work out how a small vacuum on wheels should work in a small closed environment. Imagine who long it takes to work out how a several ton metal block on wheels should work in a large open environment.
I’m no fan of autonomous cars but the way tech works is that there is always progress. Eventually we will get there. It’s inevitable, Mr Anderson.
Totally agree - we won't see them tomorrow, but in some years they will be the normality.
you are falling for a logical fallacy. the fact that something improves over time does not mean that it will keep improving for ever or reaching a critical mass that other people believe. it might be and it might not. the way it seems today it is very hard if not impossible at the moment.
"This video will age poorly :)" - Wright Brothers, 1903
I'm pretty sure that 60 years ago everyone would have thought that we'd have intelligent humanoid robots by now, but some problems aren't that easy to solve. A true self-driving car will need a level of intelligence for decision making that we're not even close to.
@@Xenon0000000000001 A main reason why you don't have humanoid robots is because they didn't have real economic incentive in the past. Therefore, there were no huge investments made in them. Going to the Moon was also impossible for people in the 1950s
@@drsocialist5572 And people in the 60's and 70's genuinely believed we'd have a moon base by now. As some people think that humans will eventually develop FTL travel and explore the galaxy. For every successful innovation, how many peter out and depart into a puff of smoke?
@@insanetrickster We did not build a base on Moon not because we don't have the technology but because our politicians are not long sighted. There isn't any immediate incentive for anyone to go to the moon and build a base. You would need huge investments in modern times and hope they pay off in the future. "As some people think that humans will eventually develop FTL travel and explore the galaxy. For every successful innovation, how many peter out and depart into a puff of smoke?", So you believe we won't? Ummm... Okay.
Humanoid Robots might sound cool, but a lot of our tasks are already automated. From washing machines to coffee makers, you don't genuinely need a humanoid robot. A Mobile Phone today might seem super futuristic to a kid in the 60s because it has huge economic incentives. At the end of the day, a lot of technologies die not because they are not created but because they don't make sense.
It already has aged badly, self drive taxis already here with no driver czcams.com/video/1BsWFzgUBQY/video.html
Mostly agree. After working in software and tech for 40 years (call me a dinosaur, but one with experience), I see things going awry in three areas: software, hardware, environment. We've already seen autonomous driving software interpret a sunset as a yellow light, or not seeing a white truck (fatality resulted), not recognizing construction barriers or repainted lane markers, etc. Hardware sensors or cameras not doing their job right, or a little spray paint or petroleum jelly on a camera by malicious vandals would throw things off, as a mischievously placed magnet might. Environmental factors include heavy rain, freezing rain, snow, dust storm, potholes, obstacles on road, etc. Ever drive into a rising sun, as on Rte 2 East towards Boston? It's more than just a big programming problem. We should be happy with things like adaptive cruise control, auto-braking in emergencies, and inter-vehicle communication.
Agree. These features should be advertised as DRIVING ASSISTS and nothing more than that. I love using it all in my 7-series, but I’ve experienced it on numerous occasions when they simply stop working due to heavy rain, dirt on the windscreen, numbers, etc. and you have to be wide awake when they fail. One thing Matt mentioned is how the car would detect people or obstacles and then just suddenly swerve or hit the brakes. This is probably one of the most annoying and scariest things I hate about it. What freaks me out in particular is that when it does happen I always pray that whoever’s behind me is not asleep at the wheel as this is territory for a massive accident in the making. I’d be surprised if there hasn’t been an accident by now. Big Tech think they’ve got this all sussed, but I have surprise for them: it ain’t gonna happen.
It will happen once we get mass 5G or 6G coverage. Then we will have vehicle to vehicle communications alongside, radar, cameras etc. The cars will also talk to the infrastructure,like traffic lights etc. So, yea it will happen. People didn't think we could fly a plane, we went to the moon, we have trains that now do 3-400kmh.
@@PK-xu7gu Only one thing will be missed from that future. Humans.
@@Gianniz27 You what?
@@Gianniz27 - Global Warming right? Or woke education, anti capitalism, and socialistic BS.... with no understanding of economics.
“Coming later this year” or “coming soon” was noted on Tesla autopilot option every year since 2017 (when I was a fan and started to pay attention). Tesla must be lucky since I never heard they get sued for this, a misleading statement that lead you to pay for something doesn’t exist yet. God bless those early buyers, may you have a trip with the autopilot before the car’s retirement.
They have been sued….
Lol Wut? You’re KNOWINGLY buying software that has not yet been approved for wide release. You pay $10-$12k in the hopes that once FSD is solved, it may 10x the value of that investment. Wake up.
@@okthisisthelasttimeipromise Who is telling the story FSD would bring 10x the value of the investment, is it Tesla? It's very obvious that FSD gonna make HUGE money by replacing human drivers in many industries, so I don't think Tesla will give up that profit and share with car owners. I believe what gonna happen in the end is, FSD "consumer license" would be only for "private purpose", charging "commercial users" on a monthly rate seems to be financial solution for Tesla to go in the next few decades. They made people believe that you can spend $12000 to buy a robot slave driver for eternity and keep making money from it, but based on my limited experiences with the capitalism and free market, that's not gonna happen.
@@okthisisthelasttimeipromise nobody will buy selve driving for 100k.
Im glad someone has finally made a video about this. These cars are so flawed its unreal.
Yea the electric car push is a straight bs move
Im not glad that no one is noticing the flaws and bad research of this video
@@michelbruns Use your common sense. Anyone who does any decent amount of driving and is aware about the volume of variables involved with driving and roads in general will understand how it will be near impossible to replicate that with a machine to the degree similar to that of a physical driver. But I’m aware many people like to live in fantasy
@@gbej1 you probably wouldve said some thing like "itll never work" about the internet or whatever too a few years ago
@@michelbruns Let's just say it won't happen in our lifetimes.
Looking forward to seeing how well this ages. Reminds me of those videos about the internet in the 80s
You should see a few of the 80s Tomorrows World. 🤔
On the other hand, in the sixties people thought we'd be having holidays on the Moon by now. And where we are? Not even travelling supersonic anymore.
@@635cz exactly. 👍🏼
I grew up in the 80s, and if you watch movies from the 60s and 70s as well, they are more wrong than right about the future. Hell the internet in its current form wasn’t really predicted in movies. The ironic thing is, most the shit in the movies never came true, yet things that did were rarely in the movies.
Holodecks
Flying cars
Beaming/teleportation
Easy comfortable space travel
Robots
Self driving cars
None of that stuff is true.
I will save this video to show to my grand kids. I hope Mr. watson from Carwow will be still there. 😄 🤣
Why would anyone want a self-driving car? Maybe it’s just me but I’ve never quite got the actual point behind why.
Yes, why!? If one dont want to drive just take a Taxi 😄
Because most car in the form of fwd 120hp econobox and they are boring to drive
You hit the nail on the head 'IT'S ALL ABOUT MONEY' lots of these projects attract a staggering amount of investment and even if they flop those who are involved can become rich very quickly.
Never say never if u look back and what has been done tech wise nothing has succeeded on first trial
Exactly how can you become rich very quick;y investing in technologies that flop?
@@TheWatcherInTheTower >receive funding for green vehicle project
>falsify and hide unspent money in expense reports
>intentionally fail
>pocket unspent money
>go "bankrupt"
@@MF-rtard89 that’s called a scam, they can do that with any other topics, not exclusive to tech
@@borderlessdoctordesu9459 I know.
I'm not convinced of 'never'.
It's certain that we are still quite a far way off. However do not underestimate the power of tipping points.
Guess every road will have to be remodelled.....
@@lejeunefilshandyman8447 Or the automation is advanced enough to even take account of road imperfections. It is possible in the future, but not now.
While I agree that the progress of self-driving cars has been routinely overhyped by the industry, it’s way too early to say the tech is a “lie”. We already have pilot programmes of level 4 self-driving vehicles up and running. The comparison with flying vehicles is also a poor one. The fuel cost alone of putting a car in the sky is always going to make it a non-starter (at least until we can get a Mr Fusion installed). By comparison, the economic case for automated vehicles makes obvious sense, which is why so much more investment is going into the technology. And yes, the roll-out of AV’s is going to make a lot of insurance lawyers very rich, but let’s not pretend like the courts aren’t already awash with disputes about driver-related incidents. I think it’ll be a long time for the technology to come to fruition. Maybe 5-10 years for the first level 5 pilot programmes, 10-15 years before true AV’s become commercially available and 30+ years before driverless cars make up a significant fraction of the global fleet. But it’s way too early to write the tech off at this stage.
This guy is totally correct! Great for manufacturers and electronics companies! More profits!
We have flying cars, they’re called “helicopters” and even with today’s technology they are still among the most difficult machines to operate in the world.
Haven't seen too many of them on the road so, no, they are aircraft.
@@wildcat1065 of course you haven’t, because they can flight! Mind blowing right?
Stupid comments 🥇. Today we have drones that fly themselves. Comparing a helicopter to a flying car is like comparing an electric car to a horse.
Very true
And they are dangerous.
Do you know that video or picture where a toddler is learning how to walk, while the parent has their hands behind them in case the baby decides to fall on its ass?
That's basically what owners of these "self driving cars" do. They "chill" while inside getting their nerves shredded by thoughts of how this system can decide to do something stupid any second. BUT HEEEY its "SELF DRIVING" (even though I work more mentally by having to monitor the AI. Than I would just driving the damn car myself)
Great comparison, but autonomous technology is also still in its infancy. It's gonna come around eventually, just like that toddler.
There is a difference between the child of scientists walking through the grass and the genetically brain-dead offspring of AUDI-fans walking through an antique glass-ware store.
Same for cars.. Sorry you don't get it.
Living on the countryside, even a simple lane assist system is interesting. If I have it on, sometimes my car tries to steer into oncoming traffic. That is because the road is so narrow there is only one marked lane for both directions and when you meet another car you have to drive at the edge of the paved surface or even slightly outside it. Meeting bigger vehicles, you must find a side road or similar. But the lane assist simply looks at the painted line, which obviously must be driven on or outside when meeting other cars, so it tries to correct you back into the middle of the road.
I think technology should enable the driver and stop trying to replace them
Or maybe that is the exact problem: enable as much as technology can, drivers are still stupid. Hence, the motivation to replace them. Though, forcing stupid drivers to take mass transit instead is far more plausible.
I don’t like the premise of driverless cars. I’m still a fan of the systems like PilotAssist and adaptive cruise control, where the car does most of the work while the driver oversees the car and jumps in when something goes wrong on the road. A system where the car works in tandem with the driver is better than a system where it works entirely on its own.
I like the premise of driverless cars, as long as they are also passengerless and stationary... and tiny (1 inch - aka MicroMachines)
FINALLY! Someone like Mat who's in the mainstream has spoken about my constant wondering with respect to these SciFi and unrealistic "Self Driving" car promises made to us.
What’s going on here ?, no driver 🤷
czcams.com/video/1BsWFzgUBQY/video.html
@@tastytechaddictsmtb its geofenced, its not true self driving AI. You do know the waymo is actually remote monitored by a whole team of people right?
The most recent version of the tesla fsd just had an accident lol.
Planes can pretty much fly themselves, yet they still have pilots to make corrections.
Fully autonomous has a long way to go. Every single company has FAILED in their promise to deliver self driving in the last decade.
I’d say in 15-20 years they may reach level 3-4 autonomy. They have been working on this for decades, since sci fi movies had the ideas in the 1980s….we’ve come far, but still have a long ways to go.
Really really nailed it!! It is the psychology and human laws that will hinder autonomous driving even if it has statistics on its side!
We will never forget if two Teslas cause fatal accidents, even when 10,000 random drunk drivers casualties could be avoided! How can we get around this??
You have to understand that no computer or machine will ever be able to adapt like the human brain can. No, humans are not perfect, but neither is the technology that we create. And as far as "statistics", keep in mind that so far, there are only a literal handful of *_truly_* automated cars that exist as prototypes, and they can only operate in certain areas. What happens when there's *_hundreds of millions_* of them on the road? You can't tell me that *_all_* of them are going to operate flawlessly 24/7. Hell, most game developers can't get the AI to work flawlessly in *_virtual_* environments! How the hell are these AI-driven cars going to cope with an infinite amount of variables in the *_real_* world?!
@Renzo "pTw" Rugnone And yet, the most technologically advanced aircraft *_still_* have humans at the controls. Why? Because there will never be a computer that does not require human intervention at some point.
HONDA released“Honda LEGEND Honda Sensing Elite”this year in Japanese domestic market.
Still not full autonomy. I'm using 1200$ Openpilot system in my Honda Civic. Makes stock systems to Level 2
@@LetitDrive Actually driver of Level 3 Honda Legend can use full autonomous mode on traffic jam on highway.
Of course using smart phone, watching TV and reading a book while driving are allowed by law.
LIE !
@@N-C51 sounds like what Mercedes is able to do in 2022
@@digglerdiggler Shit hits the fan when level 4 autonomy comes around. Rimac’s already doing that with the Nevera. The level of computing power in those things is insane.
Looking how at best "testing" locations the AI gets confused, there is no way self driving cars can work in Eastern Europe. Where no proper signalling exists, roads are more potholes than asphalt and there are no track lines half of the time.
it would be a disaster in india, vietnam, indonesia, etc.
@@JarJarBinkz68 Replace that "disaster" with "impossible". I have been to India. Those cars would just scan the street, see the horror and just shut down, hahahaha!
Potholes like in USA?
@@Wings_of_foam no, Potholes like in the Balkans. Pretty big difference
@@Wings_of_foam dont ever compare potholes from any place vs Balkans. (except maybe India). My capitol has holes where your entire car can fall in to...on the main roads!
That's why the sensation of "driving" is lost here. Is more of how fast can you drive while being able to scan for potholes & indents, while occasionally checking the road & traffic.
I agree and I am happy hearing that!! We won't forget how to drive!!
We had self driving cars, they're called horses. You get drunk and they take you home unsupervised 😉
Self driving is a tough nut to crack. But it WILL be cracked... at some point in the future (realistically still at least a few years away). The big question is, is your car future-proofed to be able to add the feature. With Tesla, I have more faith that the hardware currently installed will be up to the task, and that software updates can and will be rolled out. I can't say the same with other manufacturers. To be honest though, right now I'd settle for just being able to be hands and eyes off on motorways only. I think that is an easier problem to solve and would be a great first step. I hope this rolls out to more cars in the next couple of years and that Tesla make that mode available separately from full self driving so it can be enabled in countries that have given it the seal of approval.
About 120 years ago we were of the belief that ‘heavier than air vehicles will never fly’. Thank god there are people out there who are a whole lot smarter and adventurous than Matt otherwise we’d not yet have invented the wheel.
Yup, there’ll always be geniuses who prove people like Matt wrong
You dimwit, the biggest hurdle is the legal one. Laws take forever to change
@@-SP. doesn’t mean they’ll never change
You absolutely nailed it in this video. Good job Matt. Keep making new videos.
Agree sonmuch
The video is wrong, the tech is being used now czcams.com/video/1BsWFzgUBQY/video.html
In 2005 I did pedestrian detection as my final project at the university. Then I guessed that it will take at least 10 years for commercially viable self driving cars to appear. I was wrong, there still aren't any.
"Never" is a dangerous word when talking about technology.
I agree that there will probably be edge cases and conditions where it will not work (for a long time), so general LV5 autonomy (no steering wheel) won't happen this decade. Some niche applications, like LV5 long distance trucks that drive from city border to city border might happen earlier.
LV4 autonomy, that works better than a human driver >99% of the time I see happening before or by 2025. If conditions are off or to complicated for the car, the driver then can just take over and it will still be a massive improvement over today. If those edge cases are well defined and very rare, I would still consider this full self driving even if it technically can't drive itself all the time.
When talking tech never is strong, however the legal side well that could. Im also yet to see a driver less car reverse a trailer into a drive then place it between bushes. Not a common thing to public but a must for tradies. Also if no wheel how get in a wash bay and or on lawn to wash, or on lawn next to other cars,
only see them on a road
2025 is just as unrealistic as 2020 was 5 years ago, when Elon said it. Who knows what will be the standard of 2050, but for the forseeable future it wont happen. Even if it worked, it would constantly be in need of assistance with its own, or especially other peoples mistakes. Even more so, if the majority of cars is still driver operated, it wouldnt be relaxing at all. So whats the point. In the end, self driving cars will go slower as most people would drive themselfs.
Lol no chance. Maybe LV4 on just major highways by 2030
My model 3 just received V10.8. I strongly agree that lvl4 will be here in 12 months. In this video Car Wow doesn't go deep on FSD city streets. My guess is because its not available to UK.
"the driver can then just take over"
Right there is the biggest problem with the "evolutionarily" model towards self-driving. With every baby-step forward towards full autonomy, the driver is less and less engaged with the task of staying focused on driving. Yet, until we get to full autonomy, the driver is expected to be prepared to reassert full control at a moment's notice. This is simply unrealistic.
The only step I'm interested in is the "revolutionary" one, where the car is demonstrably superior at driving itself to such a degree that the steering wheel and pedals are no longer required. As long as I am responsible for the operation moment to moment, it's better that I just drive it myself.
Oh no, Tesla owners will feel jaded, and fleeced.
Dear Matt, i can understand your reasoning with the overpromising and underdeleverling. "They" said it would be here already but it has been proven to be a hard problem to solve. Currently there are roughly 2 approaches : 1) Tesla vision ( camera and software based) 2) geofencing and lidar based systems (rest of the industry). Last option you need to scan the whole surrounding first and that is very costly to do and maintain. Also u need a lot of sensors to match the current situatie with the orginal map. So in short : expensive and very difficult to scale, so only really viable for city environments so a lot of people can make use of the system. Tesla uses video cameras linked to AI to train their neural net and make him understand what is actually going on and make decisions based on that. U need a lot of real world data and neural net traning together with a lot of other stuff to make that reliable and safe. I understand your sceptism but i encourage you and everybody else to look at some of the latest Tesla beta software how that is coming along. You might be suprised how much progress they are making at the moment 🙂 latest version to look for is 10.8, cheers!
Totally agree. Tesla is close. It is going to happen.
Finally someone with a brain 👏
Yeah this video seemed incredibly anti-scientific. It is not a question of if, it’s a question of when.
I think if your livelihood depends on arguing against what is happening his comments makes sense.
The best way is to merge the data of Radar, Lidar and Camera, because every Sensor has advantages in different points. (Camera is crap if its dark or bad view). The difficulty in full autonoumos driving is that every (!) situation can be handled by the car. Teslas Autopilot is SAE level 2, and its a long way to go to 3, 4 and 5 (maybe impossible). I can't understand why this is named "autopilot".
There’s two sides here: either enjoy driving and drive yourself or use public transit/hail a cab. Or walk or bike. Walking and biking are cool.
Totally agree, I have several work colleagues who don't drive and believe they don't need to as cars will be driverless in the near future. I keep telling them it won't happen for a long time.
Id say give it about 20-30 years for fully driverless cars...
@@eliteiel9747 much less. After the media hyping up incremental advancements as the holy grail going back years, we are finally actually getting close. Inside 5 years IMO.
Thanks for the video, Mat. Definitely, the legal framework is one of the key points determining the implementation of the self-driving technology. That is clearly overlooked when making promises: may technology allow the implementation of a self-driving car by next year? Maybe. Will the legal framework be ready? Certainly not. And that is for objects moving on the surface. Now, have a look at flying cars, self-driving flying taxis - with no pilot on board BTW - and the like lot, with a 100 times more complex laws and regulations. If what has been done with self-driving cars could be called “overpromising”, I am out of adjectives to qualify what has been stated regarding flying cars and self-driving flying taxis. Cheers.
That isn't the issue. The issue is that there are an infinite number of truly unique and one-off driving situations that the AI can't prepare for. This means a tiny bit of snow covering a stop sign in a unique pattern every time. The moon in different positions not being recognized so it is being picked up as stop signs on autopilot, etc etc. This becomes even more serious when it is a flipped over truck of a truck type not previously seen which is all of them because they are all different places and vehicles.
@@joeleonard9965 Sorry, Mr. Leonard, I don't see how your answer proves that the legal framework is not the issue. And, additionally, those one-off driving situations you describe are not a real challenge for any current or future situational awareness system.
Elon clearly underscores that the technical aspect is one thing and the legal is another one, so Tesla is in the clear here.
It's entirely possible that there will be some serious legal battles over this but it's also possible it will be accepted quite easy. The history is full of changes that people deemed impossible before. California already allows for autonomous driving (to a degree) and this is because they want to allow for the truly self driving cars to arrive.
Even if they would allow it right now, it will take years for the technology to be ready, if ever. Just look at the fsd beta video’s, It’s totally sh1t. A little sunshine and it stops working. Snow on the front and it stops working. Heavy rain and it stops working. Let alone all the crazy manoeuvres it makes.
nope. the legal framework is not the problem. the technology is the problem. The laws will be a cinch and will be quickly developed compared to the technology
Thank you, Mat. Thank you for not hopping on board the hype train and actually analyzing the reality of the situation. It's probably not a popular opinion, but it is the best formed one. Also anyone that has a car equipped with an AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) system knows that false alerts are real, obnoxious, and sometimes downright dangerous.
After talking to some Engineers at Bosch I can just strongly disagree. The cars that are released now are 5-10 years old technology. In the Test Centers and Test cities there they are using prototypes of the expected tech for BBC a release in 5-10 Years and that is Level 4+.
Don’t compare your Level 2 with what’s currently being developed. And I’m not considering Tesla to even participate in this race to be the first to have a fully working system. Most innovation is happening at Magna, Bosch etc. and we will see it within a decade. Then the regulation has to catch up :D. And then the standardisation happens while more and more systems are fighting till one prevails
@@saladien9987 Guess we'll see, but I doubt it my guy; I also have people I know who are working on the development of these systems in both GM and Ford (I live near Detroit).
@@AC-io8qslet’s see :), from my driving of a ford Kuga as a rent car it shocked me deeply how behind they are. It felt like a car from the 80. Anyway my wife’s university dose autonomous research and that’s quite promising especially if we consider how many issues will be solved by it.
Self driving cars is about tech bros making investors excited. There was a time when people though we'd have personal jet packs in the future.
Exactly, tech companies get billions of money for the attempt.
"Never" is a long time. I agree they're definitely not ready now, but sure as the sunrise, they will be here eventually. It's just a question of "when" not "if." Chances are if you're watching this video, you'll want to drive your own car most of the time. But let's be honest -- won't it be nice when all those bad drivers (nobody watching this video, surely) are replaced by ego-less computers?
Agreed, I think it would need basically roads that navigate these cars...chips in roads everywhere basically. Although originally I just wanted to cry and shout "nooo, you are a liar, they promised me my self driving car, I want it, NOW" while kicking the air lying on my back.
As someone working in the field, I agree full autonomy is still a long shot. Nevertheless what most of the mentioned programs promised was level 3 (autonomous in a specific domain with driver intervention within 10s). Mercedes brought that to market (albeit in the most minimalist domain possible). But others will follow soon and extend the domain. It's called the mars mission of the automotive industry for a reason. L5 is not going to happen any time soon, but I am confident we will get there eventually.
Legislation is not going to be the issue once the technology is ready. I worry more about motion sickness and public acceptance once those cars will drive around in a very safety-centric way religiously obeying speed limits.
By the way, Tesla's marketing is deceiving and illegal in the EU. I regard it as near to impossible to achieve an ASIL-D functional safety rating required for level 3 with the sensor set provided for the simple fact that it does not offer redundancy. It's probably never gonna be more than an admittedly very good level 2 system.
which sensors does a human have that a Tesla doesn't have to drive? in what way do you need redundancy?
@@monkeyperson9392 A brain for example? Like you...
@@monkeyperson9392 Sound? When we hear a siren from a police car, or the horn from another driver alerting us, when we hear the squealing of brakes, etc. Touch, you can tell through feedback in the wheel if your tires have sat too long, how the road surface is, how hard you’re pressing each pedal, etc. Your inner ear allows you to determine velocity and gives you a proper perception of speed. Then there’s the cognitive schemas you’ve built in your brain for years as you’ve encounter driving incidents with other drivers that allows you to predict the outcome of interactions with other drivers in the road.
@@danhersey2531 they do have microphones.
they also do have accelerometers. these cars also have computer brains and their software can be teached.
I recommend to watch the Tesla AI day presentation.
LMAO...you're worried about fucking motion sickness. No...keep your car fantasies to yourself.
I don't understand why these manufacturers think that there is a demand of self driving car in the market, first of all it doesn't seem safer than regular cars and also it increases prices
The most honest video you have ever done Matt. Thank you.
Awesome vid as always Mat!
fyling cars are already invented.. and they are called "helicopters" .
I wonder why they are called Helicopters and not cars, any ideas?
Are they stupid in Latin America?
@@ajc5479 because they use propellers to fly instead of driving around on the ground.
So if they start making flying cars these cars will be helicopters. Unless they have fixed wings. Then they will be planes.
And yet the reason why "flying cars" are called flying cars is because the intention is that they can do *both* , drive on the ground like a car without needing speical roads of infrastructure, and fly. (no matter if like a plane or a helicopter)
So flying cars are not helicopters because most helicopters can't drive on roads, and none can drive without needing lots of space around them for their rotors.
@@nirfz doesn’t matter. If they defeat gravity using propellers they are, by definition, helicopters.
The reason why this is even more fitting is that they will, like helicopters, be completely impractical as «flying cars».
My gut feel is that all the major automotive makes are watching and waiting to see who launches the 1st autonomous car (mass produced - not prototype). And when the 1st fatality happens in an autonomous car crash, every other car brands will be watching the legal mayhem that ensues (with a bucket of popcorn 🍿).
This is a brave subject to tackle, hats off for covering it.
As the great James May has once said "self driving cars exist, they are called taxis" 😂
Are they serviced by a man called Keith?
But taxis still need someone to drive it…..
@@magnustan841 so you didn't get the joke....
@@Ammerstol No I really don’t…. 😂😂😂 I don’t watch The Grand Tour….
I love my adaptive cruise control but on a long journey keeping my hand on the steering wheel can be a pain, with lane keep assist and adaptive cruise control both on you would think you could take your hands off the steering wheel, No! 15 seconds then the alarms come on. This is where the car companies should be focusing on
@Shiv Shastri That's not true. Companies like General Motors have hands free driver assistance systems.
@Shiv Shastri It monitors your eyes. So if it sees that you are looking somewhere other than at the road, it sounds an alert. So you should always be ready to take over.
@Shiv Shastri NP
It's not 15 seconds... for me it does it every 10 minutes to warn me to move the wheel....
@@johnnyboy13642 lucky you
About the law. In Germany this is already done, because the laws are that general that if you get approval as maker of something without human input, the builder is responsible.
I find myself leaning more and more towards classic cars with absolutely no electric wizardry.
Wait till you get into an accident without ABS brakes or airbag as your ribs impact the steering wheel of your classic totaled car and your near dead self - Darwin Award! Just get a motorcycle instead, way more fun, cheeper and like a bike riding on the road just as deadly vs and SUV.
@@HDnatureTV Maybe you should watch some of your videos if the name is appropriate, so you don´t come off so passive aggressive? He means no automatic driving assistance systems like lane keep or distance assistent. A airbag is hardly wizardry.
And i completely agree with him, solely for the fact that if/when any of them make problems you can´t do shit about it yourself. You always have to pay the manufactorer for it and i rather like to work on my car myself instead of someone i don´t know and can´t supervise.
I honestly don't know if I'd every find a use for an autonomous car. If I want to cover a long journey and just sleep the whole way, I buy a rail ticket
@@Schmitzelhaus Got it in one, dude.
Self driving cars aren't yet ready, but you aren't an American and don't have access to the latest version of Tesla's software. They lock down many features for the EU/non-American market. Hands off the wheel driving already exists over here and Teslas are already driving on city streets with the beta software. So yes, not there yet, but the writing is clearly on the wall and I wouldn't bet against it...
i can't wait for fully self driving cars! due to medical stuff i can't atm
I like you Mat even more this year.This has been very informative.
Very interesting video. Have had the same questions as Matt raises. The biggest issue is not the tech, but who is responsible in an accident.
Hi Matt. Yes, at the moment they do silly things and they aren't capable of dealing with the unpredictable as you said.
But, when all cars are self driving which they pretty much will be in 30 years, then they will not only be predicable but constantly telling each other what they are doing so it won't be a problem.
This, people greatly underestimate the potential of machine learning
@@ryanpinder9053 I run a ML company and I think that the capabilities of "AI" are vastly overestimated. It's a well-known problem of breakthroughs: the actual progress is S-shaped, but is incorrectly assumed to be linear. In plain English: the better Algorithm driven cars become the harder it becomes to improve them (more time, more data, more resources). All autonomous driving startups had to learn this in the last years ... See for example Starsky Robotics.
@@ryanpinder9053 Its quite the opposite, everyone hypes STUPID IA and MACHINE LOLRNING
Even Elon Musk knows he wont do it any time soon, but will say it otherwise
@@ryanpinder9053 It's not machine learning, it's just a lot of if statements. I worked in automation; people greatly overestimate the potential of machine learning.
@@Orbilfolda Elon keeps telling others that ML IS NOT Linear but idiots keep thinking that it is from their response/answers to the videos, or reports.
These “flying cars” look more like tiny airplanes that have 4 wheels and accidentally could be driven on the road. In that respect may be we need to invent a sentient super robot and weld 4 wheels and some passenger seats on it and call it an “autonomous car”
i'll visit this video again in 8 years, relaxed on my car while it's self driving
Moving the goal posts again…2030 is it? Elon said 2017 there would be fully autonomous cars driving from NY to LA untouched lolol
Good points! To make it work vehicles would need to be on a more controlled network than a typical road preferably overseen by a central control center. Something like the Heathrow-Carpark Autonomous pod system.
That's *_exactly_* what I was thinking!
That got really passionate, Mat. Never seen that side of you since the “Worse Car Trends” video…… I personally never bought into self-driving, fully autonomous cars, for the reason somewhat hinted to at the end of the video. No matter how much investment car makers make into it, no matter how much noise they make, worldwide legislation won’t allow it. I think car makers should get to the levels Tesla are at with their “Autopilot”, that will do simple lane changes and effective cruise control on motorways, where cars are travelling faster and drivers without assistance need to be more alert, and stop there. That’s all the automation i’ll ever want in a car. Let’s not forget about the increased costs of cars more advanced autonomous technology, will bring. To be honest, we strike the best balance of driving assistance and human-operated driving right now.
Self driving AI should be unified, open source standard, developed by all manufacturers, with an overseer board of scientists. Otherwise, with many standards it will take forever to make, cause a lot of problems and it will cost many times more than it would, if there was a group effort to develop it.
I hope not
I agree - that is what it would take to get all the benefits. If everyone develops their own system, it will never work.
@@christianolsen9781 and it will never be as efficient as a human. Because all cars need to be set up to each other, whereas a human can do whatever he wants
We don't build group effort technology into capitalistic products. Also open source?! Have you lost your mind?! Think about that again when a little nerd crashes your car down a cliff because you were mean to him.
@@timbraska6750 you don't understand open source
i agree with you and the only thing I learned from video games is that never trust an AI. if you can't make an AI work perfectly in a world that you created and the rules has been defined by you then it's never gonna work in the real world which is more random action happens as you called it "unknown" events.
A 'driver-less' car always has a driver who is always responsible for how the car is driven.
Definitely going for the list of "NOT AGED WELL" future compilations, along side the declarations of IBM CEO saying the world would never need more than 3 PCs, etc.
The IBM CEO was talking about mainframe computers not personal computers.
Matt you are correct now, however I beg to differ about the future.
There are few levels of "Autonomy" in the automotive industry as you may know, L1-L5 with 5 being fully autonomous, Tesla is currently at what is considered a L2+ or L2.5.
Yes, Technology has a long way to go to reach Level 5, yes, legislation will most likely take a lot of time and for car manufacturers to start taking responsibility might take ages, but, as in other technologies, things that may have been considered impossible in the past are now a just part of our daily lives and are developing fast.
I do believe that no technology would ever be more powerful than the human brain, but I also think full Autonomous driving will be available not so far into the future, maybe 10-20 years from now who knows, but it will get there.
Happy new year
Make that 20-30 years from now and I'm on board with your comment 👌
@@justcows7772 lol
Probably
Most honest and optimistic comment.
Some great thoughts put forward. The organic form is under appreciated. Machines are no good at improvising or dealing with the unknown. As Garry Kasperov stated in an interview. Computers are superior in a closed circuit but in an open circuit we will always win. They might get in there after 2035 but time will tell.
I think, in urban areas, there will be full self drive vehicles in the form of public transport. Private vehicles won’t be allowed.
@jan simonides the future looks grim. Eventually, living won’t be allowed.
@jan simonides the way things are going, Musk is going to produce a real life “Skynet” and we all know what happens when that becomes “self aware”!
„Hey, have you heard about these two brothers, who are still hanging on to this pipe dream of a flying vehicle?“
„Yeah, white ore something like that. Yes, I don’t get it. Humanity has tried that for 300 years and always only produced prototypes that didn’t work. I mean, even Leonardo DaVinci couldn’t figure it out.“
„You’re right, that will never happen“
I honestly think that full self driving cars will fail the same way 3D TVs did. I don’t see any purpose for most people that are able to drive themselves.
The purpose was to boost car companies selling gimmicks
We own a current series Volvo XC90 with many ‘intelligent’ safety features and whilst it’s a great car, many safety features are fooled by commonplace events. Not only can it be fooled, but it would be potentially easy to hijack by creating situations the car couldn’t deal with. It’s difficult to foresee a time when autonomous cars will be as safe and predictable as they need to be
I always wonder about weather. If is dense fog, raining hard or heavy snow would the sensors be able to "read" the road? I have had where the snow on the bumper has set off sensors on my car thinking an object is close or received error that sensors are not available. Nothing is infallible.
Having worked in control systems for 15 years and having a degree and masters in electronics and control systems I can honestly say, folks the tech just isn’t there yet. It will be in the future but it’s quite a way off.
Bro whybwoukd anyone want fsd
Great points Matt and i have to agree that self driving cars does seem like a moving target always just managing to stay ahead. However, I see hope because powerful computers manage to master a complex game like Go which has an unimaginable number of possible outcomes. I think the solution is to increase the computing power to treat every second of self driving like a new game of Go which does seem doable.
this isn't a game, this is real life!
Are you really comparing a game to real life?
@@essentials1016 yes, real life is essentially a game, a very complicated game. Within real life are subset games. Driving, in particular, is a subset of real life game with rules, players with goals and specific outcomes.
I could not agree more - I have been saying the same things for ages. Great video!!
ONE OF THE BEST VIDEO I HAVE EVER SEEN ON CARWOW YOU REALLY NAILED IT RIGHT GOD BLESS
Waymo and certain chineses startups make FSD cars (but the FSD abilities are limited to certain regions). FSD will arrive to other brands in a short period of time.
Yeah Waymo have full self drive in Vegas
Just as you say, road design (or rather lack thereof) and insurance liability (see the trolly problem thought experiment) completely prevent fully autonomous vehicles. We will see ever increasingly better driver aids, but never autonomous vehicles.
The overlooked factor here is the insurance companies. They are very unlikely to cover autonomous driving and if they don't you won't be able to do it.
It is humans they wont be insuring much longer, if autonomous vehicles eventually work as well as we imagine:
Just look at how bad human drivers currently are: On average 3700 people die every day on the worlds roads, 37,000 per day substain life-changing injuries and 10's of millions are injured, costing 3% of the worlds GDP, and is the leading cause of death for children and young adults, and most of these are down to user error, incompetence, lack of concentration, drugs, speeding. distractions, showing off, falling asleep etc.. etc...etc...!
One thing humans have proved over the last 100 years, is we are incapable of consistently driving safely!
It is about time we transitioned to a safer means of travelling around our roads! and got away from the existing blood bath!
Really great job at reinventing new angles on your CarWow Wow!!
This is great! You could also have talked about the fact that AI developers exaggerate their accomplishments and don't tell you that they aren't anywhere close to being able to engage in human like functions. They also haven't told you that they don't know quite how the mind works. And again, aren't even close.
While I think you are right that companies have underestimated how long it will take I think you are wrong saying it will never happen. There are already driverless robotaxi services running commercial services in several US and Chinese cities, which shows the basic problem can be solved. It just needs to be scaled up. The legal point is a good one, but again being solved, as you mention its legal now in Germany and will be in spring 2022 with ALKS in the UK, which have required changes to the law on driving and liability. Certainly ALKS is very limited, but its just the first step. Fully autonomous driving is here and scaling, but it will take longer than many companies have been predicting.
this video was on point 👍
I don't want robots to have my life in their chips.
Finally the video about self-driving cars
Well, AI and sensor technologies had an unbelievable evolution the past 10-15 years, so for the technical aspect of it, it's a matter of perfecting the system. However, it doesn't shock me at all if it takes another 10 years or more for those promises to be delivered and then another 10 years for the global adoption and law adjustment.
As for the responsibility in accidents it will be just like it is now - insurance companies will deal with that between themselves.
And refuse to pay, even more than today, because they or the driver are not at fault. The manufacturer is at fault. The driver had no control, so how can they be responsible? It is so difficult to figure it out that in that case they would still require you to pay attention by law, so that you are responsible. It is and will mever be a full self driving car, it would be assisted driving, still false marketing, why not, sheepel are buying it.... oh, amd hacker atacks, I can't wait for a hacker to take control of such system, or jusy disable it and cause crashes/trafic jams. It happens with phones/pc, but it is not your life on the line like in the case of cars.
Weather is a big problem. I have a tesla and if its gets rain camera is blocked. Snow blocked. What full self driving do then? Robotaxi customers go out and clean it or what?
We’ve already got self driving transport. They’re trains, trams, buses etc. You just sit and it takes you.
Who actually wants a self driving car. If i buy a car i want to drive it
Why would you buy a plane ticket? You can fly yourself.
@@olavgausaker1 if i knew how to fly and have a plane i would rather that
@@bruhbruh4871 "Why would anyone do anything if I woudn't do it?"
Hey, Mat...really liked this video! I hope that we are never going to see all cars being self-driven...plus that i enjoy driving by myself! Keep the good job!
So you enjoy people dying? Solid.
Hundreds of thousands of people die each year from human negligence behind the wheel. But let’s thwart that technology because you think it’s fun to drive.
@@okthisisthelasttimeipromise yep...i would choose to drive by myself...a lot of people die in the ocean...yet, we still go to the beach...a lot of people die in construction...yet we still build houses....a lot of people die from cancer...yet we are focusing on stupid self driving cars! People die every day...and that is, how it is! Live in your meta world, if you are scared from death...and let the ones, that want to live our lives to the fullest!
@@okthisisthelasttimeipromise if you don’t know how to drive just say that lol
I was skeptical at the title of the video, like how would you know about this anyway?
Then it turned out to be a very informative video about problems with self driving cars.
One of your best videos, made a lot of sense.