July is here but where is the heatwave? 14 day UK weather forecast
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- čas přidán 1. 07. 2024
- TheWeatherOutlook's Brian Gaze takes a look at the 14 day UK weather prospects from July 2nd .
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The forecast focuses on trends and probabilities during the second week rather than specifics.
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Don't want a heatwave just a blue sky and 22 degrees
@@tw7494 you are in the wrong country
Winter has gone on for 12 months now 😢
Yes, despite the media trying to make out we had the warmest spring and warmest May on record, most people can see through the nonsense now and do realise that we are all being spun a yarn for political reasons. June record below average temperatures for most of north west Europe and the UK is testament to this. Parts of Scandinavia and the Baltic states experienced their coldest winter for 30 years this year. But we don't get told this by the media because it doesn't suit the narrative that the whole world is burning when it's not.
Yes it has , same weather even on Xmas day it was 15 , no summer for the UK this year , all over
That's a slight exaggeration. May this year was quite a sunny month. And keep in mind May is normally spring rather than summer
So we literally had winter, then Spring was non existent, colder than Winter then Summer which is more like Spring than Summer, and we will be fast approaching September before you know it, the occasional warm day isn’t a Summer to me, when I was a kid back in the 70’s Winters were harsh with snow and summer was hot remember the summer of 76 and 77 scorching for the whole of the school holidays, the weather now is more unpredictable than I can remember it.
Why does low pressure linger for weeks, but high pressure comes and goes within a few days? Most of Europe now in a heatwave, but good Ol Britain doesn't know whether it's Summer or Autumn.🤬🤬
Geoengineering.
Jet stream shift
Solar Radiation management aka Geoengineering aka Chemtrailing and HAARP , Destroying crops and poisoning our bodies. Its a disgrace and a crime against all life in the UK.
@@andy530iexactly...
Because the AMOC is stopping and all climate models show a persistent low pressure over the north Atlantic and British Isles. It is hoing to get much worse and no-one knows exactly when, but in the future the Uk will see temperatures down to -40°C. You can find it on youtube.
There's something very wrong with the weather lately.
It’s all messed up
It’s being messed with!! That’s why to keep everyone in a depressed state you only need to look at every country in the world right now pretty much it’s either extreme heat, hurricanes, wash outs unfortunately we’ve been hit with more thick grey cloud because we was already a. Colder climate!
@@allanstewart6894 This type of cool, cloudy weather with rain at times during the Summer is perfectly normal for our islands in the North Atlantic. This is what you should expect unless of course you have allowed yourself to be mislead with political nonsense about a climate emergency. Its nothing of the sort, we are not the sub tropics.
@@spillarge you keep telling yourself it's normal but I've been on this planet for 38 years it not normal and I don't believe in man made climate change, make of that what you will.
Another year without a summer 😢
We probably will get a summer from September to February when the days start to get shorter as per usual
It's a bit early to make that call!
Hopefully. Getting sick and tired of the 35+ summer days and 20+ summer nights in this country, when we'd be lucky to see 25°C for a few days even in 2010 and the average was more like 19-21°C.
Last summer was mild compared to the previous two years, and I was still getting temperatures of 33°C in my room after midnight in September. Anyone who wants that stuff can go live in a country that's built for it.
@@tullypoo nothing has changed, the average maximum daytime temperature in July here in the UK is still between 17c and 23c depending on which region you live. Don't expect that to change because our idiot politicians declared an emergency ten years ago. They are just stupid people who know nothing and lie to you. Expect more of the same as the norm.
@@tullypoo this is Summer for these islands
Depressing.. never know a year like it. It went downhill this time last year and never recovered.. awful Summer
As is typical - by the time the UK sorts itself out with any hint of warmer weather, it’s already September, and summer is over.. So back to shorter darker days, cold, wind, rain. Utterly miserable
Cant wait to head out of the country around fall for some sunnier skies.
September or even October can often bring fine weather. Last year I was on the Islet of Wight in early September and IIRC, temperatures were around 30C in southern Britain.
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Indeed. the CET for September last year was higher than both July and August and in many parts of the UK, it was the warmest month of the year.
Sounds like heaven to me 😍😍😍
Thanks for this. I'm from Reykjavik Iceland and our summer has been under average here.
But in the north/ the temperature has gone to
20 - 25 °C but can fall to 10 the next day.
Cloudy, mostly calm weather without a rain.
I flew over you a couple of weeks ago! -:) Iceland is high on my list of places to visit. I suspect (not been focused on Iceland so correct me if I'm wrong) your cooler than average summer to date is in large part due to the position of the jet stream.
We've already had our Summer Brian you know this 🤣🤣
Hopefully not!
@@segamegadrive3903 summer here in the UK has always been 3 days and a thunderstorm. Never forget this regardless of the dumb predictions that it's an emergency and all catastrophe. It's nothing of the sort.
July 4 th - a severe depression forecast for most of the UK
Definitely if Starmer get in! Dangerous man if you look back his past 😡
No it isn't. A disturbance looks like running eastwards across the southern half of the UK on Friday as I mentioned, but it's not severe. See www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=54&chartname=eurmslp_preciptype&chartregion=eur&charttag=Precip%20+%20MSLP
Weather is miserable… It’s July, slate grey skies, raining and back to wearing my hoody. July! 💁🏻♂️👎🏼
Low pressure, followed by low pressure…and then, another low pressure.
Low pressure can basically kick the cr*p out of the high pressure systems.. 🙄
I know it’s a joke I have seen more sun and clear blue sky last November December and January
They're playing with the skies to ruin crops so we will be starving next.
Not my favoured weather in the summer months. That said, I do my best to remain objective because there are plenty of people around who enjoy the cooler conditions.
@@waynester71 weather is now manipulated around the world and not for our good either.
Rain? Can you send some of that down South please as we're lacking in it!
so now we have re-defined "heatwave" to describe any occasion the weather is "nice."
What was once described as a nice sunny day, is now a threat to mankind. 🙄😄
Another crap summer cloudy and cool.
Don't throw in the towel just yet!
Here in the Scottish Highlands waiting for Spring to start.... Was out cycling today in the same kit I had on in March... Reckon it'll be Sprautumn this year, just bypass "summer"!!!
First two weeks of July my annual holiday, looks crap again for 2024
Great forecast Brian. Damn that low pressure. Back to wearing a fleece indoors!
It felt chilly in the house when I got up this morning.
thank you brian.
My pleasure!
thank you like always!
No probs.
Thank you Brian
Welcome!
Ireland is so windy and cold now.
Staying cooler
It could change in the medium term, but I agree in the short term.
Correct me if I am wrong but shouldn't the rolling 30 year average dataset be 1991-2020 for comparing June 2024 average temperatures????
Isn't this precisely why the 30 year average is a 'rolling' average to ensure the correct context?
The correct dataset comparison demonstrates that the month of June this year was -0.7C colder than the current rolling 30 average temperatures for the month of June. -0.7C is significantly colder and it's way below the -0.1C maintained in this video.
Surely by comparing the coldest dataset one can find from 60 years ago as is done here takes the exceptionally cold June 2024 temperatures completely out of context and is therefore meaningless. Unless of course one is trying to diminish the exceptionally low temperature contrast of June 2024 by comparing this June with the coldest 30 year period of data from last century. That should do it!
Also if one uses the correct rolling 30 year averages it destroys the argument put forward that June this year is the first month since December 2022 below the average because there have been many months since Dec 2022 recording average monthly temperatures well below the rolling thirty year average.
If you look at the table you'll see anomalies against other 30 year rolling data sets. For example, 1991-2020 is there and as you note the negative anomaly is bigger. On the other hand, comparing to 1971-2000 shows a positive anomaly.
On the TWO tracker 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020 and 1659-2020 are all displayed.
www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx
Exactly my thoughts. 👍
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Yes, Of course I see this and now that you confirm the validity of the points I raised, will you now explain why you have taken this June's temperatures out of context by specifically choosing to solely highlight the one data set which ended more than 30 years ago?
I stand by what I said and which is 'IN CONTEXT', this June was very cold against the current 30-year rolling average dataset. There have also been many months since 2022 where monthly average temperatures have been below the current 30-year averages. Of course if one wishes to choose a data set from one of the coldest recorded periods from last century you can make out completely the opposite is true. Its all about perspective and you can only make the statements which you did if it's out of the correct context.
Can’t wait to see the back end of this summer as it has been pure dire at least the evenings will be getting shorter which is a bonus
Wow yea soon be dark and wet ffs were not amphibious you know
People forget we are floating on magma ....the recent earthquakes...volcanos ....the suns height of activity the universe is constantly changing so will our global weather .....the earth was in a ice age at 1 point in time ...
I wish one of the weather posters would offer up some explanation of the dire weather ? Why for the second year in a row have we got a south shifted jet stream . ? No one ever does though
Bouvet Island ...weather manipulation Haarp etc ... mad scientists
AMOC is stopping
@@GaryOKexactly👍 minutes of horror channel has been covering the goings on with that anomaly at Bouvet Island and the weather manipulat1on.
Why were so many summers in the 1980s poor? I focus on the short to medium range in these videos so don't directly address the point you raise. What I would say is there is a level of persistence in weather which is sometimes overlooked. For example, cold winters in the UK tend to come in clusters. Therefore, the adage that "we've just had a cold winter so another one is unlikely in the next year or two" is actually incorrect. (We've not just had a cold winter of course, but I'm just using that figuratively)
@@justinlinnane8043 I can explain it.
Changeable, cloudy, cool with rain at times is the normal here in these islands stuck out in the North Atlantic.
You should be asking yourself why you should be expecting anything different?
Nice shift Brian!😎👍keep it Cool 🌡🌦☔
Thanks 👍
"Are we in for a heatwave ?"........"No"................"thanks for watching"
This is why I take my Summer holidays in May these days used to be July to August its always crap weather after May in the UK, had a stonking two weeks in May on Holiday in Scotland's West Coast Highlands.
Thank you Brian. It would be nice if the Azores high could drift up from the south. Any chance?
Not much sign of that happening at the moment I would say. On the other hand, there's still a long way to go this summer.
All the cloud seeding 😂
Dont want a heat wave a normal summer would do some nice sunny days then rain
In a lot of ways the current summer is "old school" and analogous to some of the ones we had in the 1980s. July 83 was an anomaly, but many summer months in the 80s were cool compared to what we've become accustomed to in the last couple of decades. Perhaps we'll have a 1980s style winter???
Yes i remember the winters used to get a lot of snow now not as much dont know if its climate change but the weather for a long time now has been odd
Is this a result of the slowing AMOC, because it looks very much like it!!
You talk about the jet streams affecting our weather but what about the gulf stream ??? Saw a programme on tv saying it has slowed down
Never hear of the gulf stream these days , wonder why ?
BBC have a piece here:
www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml#:~:text=The%20cold%20water%20then%20moves,reason%20we%20have%20mild%20winters.
However, with sea surface temperatures generally above the norm around the UK I don't think it is a factor at the moment. The key is how pressure blocks are set-up in our region and that relates back to the jet stream.
Could do with some rain in London been dry for a few weeks now. Rain and warmer weather would be perfect!
Yes I agree. Here is Berkhamsted there has been some rain recently, but amounts remain small. That could well change in the coming days.
Hey Brian just not stopped raining since we laid Queen to rest. Do you recon whole of July and August are looking a write off or a chance of hot spells but may not last. Also says on some long range that September is looking a washout too
More activity in the Atlantic caused by higher ocean temps, and a fluctuating jet to make it all very changeable sadly, cheers Brian.
I still think there's time for a decent period of summery weather to develop but of course time will tell.
I don't know why people complain, it's not cold, don't need central heating, there's all of the second half of July, all August & sometimes September, so what lot of hot air, lol, pun intended. It's just about fine a bit brighter would be more cheerful, but I don't need a heatwave.
I think the ‘don’t need central heating’ part may well depend on where you live, we had to have it on in 12 different days in June!!!
@@wadelogisticsltd easier to put on a jumper, I grew up in the 50s & 60s, didn't have central heating.
But sure depends where you live, I'm in the south Central area, it hasn't been cold here.
@@shaungillingham4689 exactly, we’re in a rural part of South Yorkshire next to the Pennines, in June we had 3 nights of ground frost, 20 nights where the temp was in single figures and only 7 days where the maximum temp exceeded 18c. We get zero sun in the house to warm up in daytime due to woodland surrounding us. I can live with an extra couple of layers on, but I wouldn’t put babies/infants through living in a cold house.
@@wadelogisticsltd the thing is our weather is generally temperate, meaning not extremely hot in the summer & not extremely cold in the winter.
Heatwaves come & go but we are bound to get above & below average temperatures, so I still don't see this as unusual, we've been spoilt in recent years with Heatwaves but summer most years it is fairly mediocre, still there's time enough between August & September.
I'm so happy we live in such a kind and moderate climate.
The jet stream missed the bog and hit the floor.
Another crap summer cloud and cool,we don't want heat wave here it's lovely as it is 😢
More rain on the way
Global cooling 😢 what is the sun doing low solar out put ?
Stratospheric Aerial Injections. It's deliberate.
A few cooler than average weeks in one tiny part of the globe tell us nothing.
Why Oh Why do we rely so much on models when you say "the models don't compare" or "the models may have got this slightly wrong" or "the models may have got the temperatures a bit low so expect higher". It all seems hit and miss with this unreliable data being spewed out resulting in unclear and inaccurate forecasting. Perhaps the best thing for these computers to do is to store the weather events of the past and present because they are pretty rubbish at the future!
This has to be the stupidest comment I've ever read.
Brian puts it nicely during his introduction to Week 2.
If you're looking for a forecast which says on 10th July it will be X.X Celsius and it will start raining at 15:02 you have landed on the wrong channel. There may well be people who claim to offer that level of precision but IMO they are snake oil salesmen.
@@davidwinkle4168 Synthetic computer models should not be relied upon to predict the future correctly.
The whole of the scientific community understand this. Its just our dumb media and dumb politicians who can't understand this fact. The acid test is that they have never been able to replicate the past correctly. Take them with a huge pinch of salt.
You lot cannot get the next 14 minutes right never mind the next 14 days
14 days ago we were all going to die !
Global boiling on the rest of the chart.
we dont want heatwave here, its lovely as it is.
Speak for yourself
I'd personally be happier with a heatwave, but as I mentioned, many people will agree with you.
Can you give us any hope? When will it get warmer? We deserve blue skies & sunshine 😅
Please god for warm weather ,, need it for good hay , trying to buy hay last year was a nightmare 😢
I am very content with the cooler weather.
Typical i buy a bloody drone get registered ect and can't fly it in summer because of the wind and rain be bloody snow next week now knowing my luck
Global warming 😂
Thanks Brian Gaze
Pleasure.