GUYANA | A Venezuelan Invasion?
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- čas přidán 21. 05. 2024
- On 3 December 2023, Venezuela held a referendum over its claims to a large part of neighbouring Guyana, even though it had been asked not to do so by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Despite a low turnout, the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, claimed overwhelming support for annexation. Since then, Caracas has moved swiftly to assert its sovereignty over the territory. As well as creating a new federal state of Guayana Esequiba, it has produced maps showing the territory as part of Venezuela and ordered international oil companies to leave the area. However, the big question observers are asking is whether Venezuela will try to assert its control by launching an invasion.
The border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has a long history. Having emerged during Venezuela's independence, which coincided with the creation of British Guiana, in 1831, the dispute was eventually referred to arbitration. In 1899, Britain was given control over a large part of the territory claimed by Venezuela, which reluctantly accepted the ruling. However, in 1962, as Guyana was preparing to become independent, the Venezuelan Government raised the issue again. Since then, the issue has remained unresolved. The matter became even more pressing in 2015 when large oil deposits were discovered off the coast of Guyana. In 2018, and in line with an agreement between Britain and Venezuela, the UN Secretary-General referred the issue to the ICJ. However, as the Court prepares to deliver its findings, Venezuela has decided to take matters into its own hands. But while an invasion would once have seemed unlikely, changes in international politics now make it possible. But will it happen?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:45 Post-Colonial Border Disputes in Internation Relations
02:13 Venezuela and Guyana: Location and Population
02:47 The Emergence of Venezuela and British Guiana
04:18 The Border Dispute between Britain and Venezuela
05:41 The Venezuela-Guyana Border Issue Returns
07:13 The Case Goes to the ICJ
08:37 The Roots of the December 2023 Crisis
10:31 The 2023 Venezuela-Guyana Crisis
11:44 Will Venezuela Invade Guyana?
13:47 The Consequences of a Venezuelan Invasion
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Office of the President | Government of Guyana
op.gov.gy/
Ministry of Foreign Affairs | Government of Venezuela
mppre.gob.ve/en/
Venezuela-Guyana Boundary Dispute | State Department
history.state.gov/milestones/...
Venezuela | Question of Boundaries | 1962
digitallibrary.un.org/record/...
Geneva Agreement | 1966
treaties.un.org/doc/publicati...
International Court of Justice | Guyana vs Venezuela
www.icj-cij.org/case/171
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MAPS
www.themaparchive.com
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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Venezuela #Guyana #Conflict
I really had to take a look at this truly fascinating unfolding story. It covers so many interesting elements of history, international relations, international law, decolonisation, conflict management, etc. But do you think Venezuela will in fact take the next step and invade? Or is this just Maduro posturing? If so, how does he climb down from this? As ever, I look forward to all your thoughts and comments below.
I do think he will go through with the land grab. The reason, he told Venezuelan oil companies to prepare to start drilling there. The Biden administration took some of the sanctions off Venezuelan oil, but I doubt they have the expertise to restart an oil well after it's been shut down without a partnership with Exxon or Shell. It's much easier to annex a running oil well and take it over. Maduro also strikes me as more of a reactionary dictator and not a long-term chess player like Putin.
The only issue here is that Venezuelans want Maduro OUT but Maduro is looking for ways to anchor and strengthen himself in power and continue ruling. It is as much for power as it is for money for the regimen. DO NOT THINK Venezuelans give a SHIT about The Esequibo at least not immediately, but they do give a SHIT about throwing Maduro OUT. Looking forward to your next analysis.
Venezuela claim very similar to Argentina claim of Falklands Island.
Your analysis is always a regular high point for me. Many thanks. 😉
Omites varias cosas importantes; La Corte Internacional de Justicia ordena no hacer el referendum a Venezuela, pero no dice nada sobre la suspensón de la explotación por parte del Esequibo (algo muy necesario si es supuestamente imparcial); Tambien omites que Venezuela no estuvo presente en el Laudo de París (como puede ser válido ese laudo si una de las partes no está presente); Así mismo omites que el Acuerdo de Ginebra ocurrió porque Inglaterra reconoció que el Laudo de París fue injusto e ilegal; y por último omites que Inglaterra reconoció en el Acuerdo de Ginebra que Venezuela tiene razones de peso para reclamar el Esequibo. Tu exposición al omitir todo lo antes dicho es como mínimo imprecisa y parcializada. No eres muy objetivo.
Guyana doesn’t bother anyone and we have welcomed Venezuela’s refugees with open arms. The people in this area don’t speak Spanish and have no desire to be invaded and forced to be part of a failed country. The government should focus on feeding its population instead of waging war. I’m sure their soldiers will be happier farming more than colonizing.
Can't invade what belongs to you.
in what terms@@Ekkiz98
you need to be abe to justify your claims before pressing it in the first place@@Ekkiz98
@@Ekkiz98 Venezuela was once owned by Spain. Maybe they should take back what’s theirs.
@jeanbastien9424 Esequibo belongs to Venezuela since day 1, no matter if yall like it or not, buddy
A failed state that aspires to rule a larger area 😂😂😂
🙌
Comedy
Failed and ignorant state
Russia or Venezuela?
@@peterstadlmaier3107 Good one😂
People should not imagine that Essequibo is like the open farmlands of eastern Ukraine. Venezuela can't just roll tanks and armored vehicles in there -- it's dense tropical forest, so Venezuela's very big advantage in military hardware is not nearly as decisive as one might think. Holding that large territory is going to be extremely difficult.
It's hard to imagine a war when there's no military on one side, and the other is mostly infantry in sparcely populated jungle. It'd be very weird indeed
That's not even going into the infrastructure needed to actually exploit the resources that they would be fighting over. I can't imagine Venezuela making much money off the land if the mines and rigs are under constant threat sabotage or even just straight up attacks, especially if any other nations get involved in the fighting.
Not to mention there is actually no road connection suitable for Even minor scale commercial logistical movements let alone a medium scale military movement. The only road in that area is actually in the Brazilian border not with the Venezuelan border. Requiring an amphibious invasion from the seaside which is far away from Venezuela naval bases and Venezuela does not have maritime logistical capabilities
Exactly, there's no infrastructure whatsoever, no roads or plains through which to send armored vehicles or supplies of any kind. Brazil is not going to lend its territory for foreign war operations. And Venezuela can't even keep their gas stations supplied at the very capital Caracas. As small as Guayana might appear, Venezuela's military is used mainly to suppress protests at home, not actual combat.
Every South American country has part of the Amazon, therefore they know well what the land is like.
I am currently living in India and this new is quite a shock in India currently, given Guyana's significant cultural connection to India. 30% of Guyanese population are Indians, many Hindu festivals are officially sanctioned, and the current President of Guyana is an Indian (Irfaan Ali). Moreover, Guyana has largely been seen as a friendly neutral nation, which made no sense to associate Guyana as an American ally (Guyana even criticised the US in many occasions), plus Guyana has a quite small military force.
Yet if the war breaks out, we all know who will Russia support. It shows clear that Russia will advance its agenda only for Russian greed and the fact that Maduro is even willing to attack a neutral country shows how far will Moscow go. That's why I heard some Indo-Guyanese students are pleading Indian officials to intervene to prevent a Venezuelan invasion and some of them have accused Russia of behind the act.
It is obvious that Moscow has a part in the ongoing conflict both here, and in the middle east. It is no coincidence this is happening now, to turn the attention away from Ukraine.
As a indo Guyanese, I just want to clarify that we are actually 39% percent of the population.
Thee is news that many, if not most, do not know of. I think it was in the late 1950s or the very early 1960s that Russia, at that time its forerunner, went to British Guiana to look for oil. They found oil in the ocean. That's what they said at the time. Then the Americans went to investigate. They said there was no oil there. Of course everybody believed the Americans. There was no investigation of what the Russians claimed. You be the judge.
Indian government to intervene you say.
As powerful as India may seem, such a long distance foreign military intervention is still not within the scope of Indian military capabilities.
Having troops are one thing, being able to feed those troops 10,000 miles away Is a whole different argument. That is why America does not have the biggest army in the world but still is the most powerful country. And Russia which technically have one of the largest armies is useless because it cannot feed them without the regular commercial logistics of Russian territory.
endians have being brought to Guyana by the British colonists ,they are not indigenous to Guyana and they should not get involved one of the most corrupt countries in the World in that area ,I mean endia ,endia has no right in Guyana and it should be kept out of it ,it isn't its business ....
As a Chilean myself, this only galvanises the fact that Russia only used Latin America for their dirty business serving themselves to distract from their failed war in Ukraine (I am of distant [1/5] Russian origin). This kind of action could not be done without clear Russian backing, we all know how much power Russia has in Venezuela. And then, dictator Maduro chose Guyana, a country that has traditionally been non-aligned as a target, for what? To impress Putin and to declare the foundation of the Venezuelan Empire? Guyana didn't even join the American wars in Vietnam or Iraq, Guyana has never sent troops to invade anyone and now Guyana has to take blame?
You see, it was never about "opposing American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan," both of which have long since ended. America is just a baddie that russia can use as an excuse to attack peaceful countries, destabilize the world, and expand their borders.
You're mistaken. Russia is winning the war in Ukraine which has the support of all NATO power at the beginning. Russia has already captured Eastern Ukraine. If you are getting western news, its time you change to a better source.
@@satmohabir7175 What media you are reading?
@@first-last-null Venezuela is one of the poorest nations in the world. If you want a Gaza or Kuwait then they will deliver for you.
It's not an issue or Russia. Of course Russia is involved, but so is the US (oil in the region). We should stop strawmaning issues and pretending it's all about the villain of the hour. Conflicts exist outside of Europe too and can't be reduced to the European enemy of the day
Leftists going full imperialist lol.
This video lied severely. There were wars and civil conflicts around the world as a result of decolonization and the Soviet Union destabilizing countries with global Marxism, the ideology of the oppressed vs the oppressors. The Soviet Union and other communist countries were founded to be expansionist and spread socialism around the world. Socialism is an ideology of war.
You realize this is a contested territory, no?
@@FOLIPE It's not by arbitration more than a century ago it is Guyana's. UN accepts current borders.
*Guyana backtrackin' to daaa US again!*
They always were. Ironic considering they always take the moral high-ground against Britain and France but they're no better. For evidence ask the Finns, Baltics, Poles, Ukranians, Tibetans, etc.
The reality is that since It became a British possession (British Guiana), Guyana has been an Anglophone country! It isn’t now, or has ever been part of the Hispanic world. It is the only English speaking country in South America. Culturally and linguistically it is aligned with the Anglophone Caribbean. Guyanese people do not speak Spanish.
Guyana is a nation of six races, including the nine First Nations tribes, each has contributed to the cultural melange. The English language, including Guyanese Creole has been the unifying factor. We have nothing in common with Venezuela, save for our geographical proximity. As far as we Guyanese are concerned, Essequibo is ours. Our ancestors, whether they were taken there in chains having been trafficked from Africa, taken from India, China or Madeira as indentured labourers, along with the continued presence of our First Nations people , they have all contributed to the essence of Guyana. Our ancestors sweated and died there, generations of my ancestors have turned to dust in its fertile soil. Essequibo is ours.🇬🇾
Re as far as Guyanese. So do most people. Unless they are from countries like Russia that like to annex and conquer other countries.
After what happen at Ukraine it feels like anything is possible and decades old taboos and rules - " the international system" are not that much respected anymore..
They were never respected.
Just ask the Armenians of the ex-republic of Artsakh. Independent for 32 years but on Jan. 01. 2024 they are to be officially disolved. All of its 100.000 abandoned everything and fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took over. And no one did anything. Its not even mentioned much if at all on the news.
@@ab9840 nobody have recognized them, it never was a country. Just a wedge to keep tensions alive. Guyana is a recognized country for more than 100 years. Not compareable.
@@zhuljensit does NOT change the fact than a state was dissolved by FORCE. Any ressemblance with Ukraine, Guyane,.....
-eastern ukraine has a large population (majority) of ethnically russian/russian speaking people who when voting in a referendum overwhelmingly choose to join russia
-west guyana has a small/sparse population (majority) of ethnically indigenous amerindians speaking multiple languages living in tibes/small villages scattered in the amazon jungle - so if they choose to not have any interference from either guyana government or venezuela government, & not be invaded militarily or exploited for oil reserves, then that should be respected & the entire region left alone
I just love how Venezuela is so selective in following the timeline. Maybe Mexico should ask for California back? What about Alaska and Hawaii, purtu Rico islands ? Israel or Pakistan?
Why only 2023 is there an issue with this border? Hugo Chavez never had any issues. Could it be that oily stuff coming up from the ground?
ya, maybe spain should ask venezula back
No, it's his economy. He's about to be deposed, he knows that.
Mexico literally accepted their loss through treaty and it was by an entirely different government (imperialist and not democratic),hardly the same thing
I don't think you watched the entire video, this is a century old issue.
Ethiopia and Venezuela have really disappointed me this week. Cut it out guys 😡
What did Ethiopia do?
@@JasbirSingh-zj1fg - They want to annex land in order to reach the sea and thus establish a seaport for commercial use. Being landlocked is costing them billions a year in added expense.
It appears to me that there is a plan to stress the USA on many fronts.
That’s our own fault… all we have to do is start to fund education and healthcare and infrastructure and instead of just military spending… but nope we got them tanks so we gotta use em and we have money to give anyone for war… smh all we have to do is stop
A Venezuela invasion of Guyana if allowed unchecked is a direct challenge to US power, and would show the decline of the Empire. Monroe doctrine and it expanded application (Roosevelt Corollary) does not allow for it
But stress goes both ways.
I think so too. The US has been vetoing a ceasefire nonstop and now this and other new issues will put the US on the backfoot and the other countries will not vote for a ceasefire
Venezuela claims come from grand Columbia a nation that no longer exists. The area of Essequibo was held by the dutch in 1802 and recaptured by great Britain in 1803. Venezuela got independence from Grand Columbia in 1810 believing they should be entitled to all of what they once held.
Guyana itself is a native American country with majority immigrants. The name of the territory is indigenous meaning "land of many of waters". The symbolism of Guyana from native crown presidential seal, golden arrow head flag and national dish are all native American. But Venezuela thinks it's still great Britain and somehow the people and land are still slaves controlled by the Spanish for their entitled minds. Unfortunately for them we were liberated and given freedom and independence by the Queen of England no longer subjects of anyone
Essequibo belongs to Venezuela from 1777 and the area which Guyana was founded in 1814 was actually brought by English people to Dutch people, the English started to invade West lands of Essequibo from 1830 looking Gold and resources using fake maps to take more Venezuelan lands.
guyana lie
@@joelvijesus😂
@@KwaserIGuess 😉is true pirate 🥱
@@joelvijesus but what they said is literally true. it's history. you're just ignorant
Bolivia is giving Chile the side-eye right now... That Pacific coastline is starting to look attainable.
Chile is far more powerful while Bolivia never has the same power projection.
playing devil's advocate here, but..... let's look at Russia/Ukraine. I thought it was game over in the first week for Ukraine, but here we are. They still holding down the fort. but I am well aware of the power dynamic between Chile and Bolivia. Chile is basically my home away from home and they are nothing if not organized (perhaps something to do with those German immigrants). My comment was mostly tongue and cheek 🙂. @@peruano-quichwa---aymara8611
Brazil announced it’s deploying its military to the border with Venezuela. Any military incursion by Venezuela against Guyana has gotten harder as Venezuelan soldiers would need to pass through Brazilian territory if they enter Essequibo because of challenging terrain elsewhere.
Only in the South, but roads and bridges could be built
@@omarb1912 Use the resources to feed the Venezuelan people, not to go to war.
@@omarb1912man, the border is thick dense mountainous forest . There is absolute no way they Venezuela can create land connection trough that.
One call from Putin to lula and Brazil will step aside.
@@bilic8094, how do you know that?
Long Live Guyana 🇬🇾🇬🇾🇬🇾
From what I understand, Argentina attempted to conquer the Falklands Islands from the UK. The country was under a dictatorship and the people were experiencing hard times, so this was to rejuvenate the nation. It ended badly. Essequibo isn't an island, but it is a dense forest and the Venezuelan military can't use its equipment.
I can see this as the perfect excuse to topple down the Maduro regime. Either by assistance or direct intervention by American led forces.
Basically nobody would support Venezuela but the traditional failed one party states
The Malvinas are argentinian
The ezequibo is venezuelan
Out with the European invaders
british took the falkland because they have a gasfield near it.
So timely, appropriate and informative. Thank you again Professor.
Let's just say UN failing just like league and many nations getting bold now
Thanks. I agree. But this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. There is no real way to fundamentally reform it. And disbanding the UN would make things worse. Meanwhile, trying to send in forces is more difficult than ever with the divisions in the Security Council. It is certainly a pretty bleak picture!
All international bodies did pretty much nothing besides fail.
It would be interesting to see if Venezuela can make this annexation stick
An annexation is nothing if you can't occupy the land. Essiquibo is mostly jungle with few villages, few roads and most communications via river or air to dirt strips
A Guyanan guerilla army could bog down the Venezuelans for years
It would also be interesting to the reaction of the US if Venezuela makes any moves on the US-owned oil rigs in Guyanan waters
A guérilla of 120 thousand people? Venezuela could easily settle it with many more
@@FOLIPE I think trying to settle the Essiquibo is easier said than done. It would need a huge investment in infrastructure
The southern half of the border region between Venezuela and Guyana is mountainous. This means the northern half, however this is still jungle
@@philjameson292actually it's quite easy, just give farmers the land and they'll settle it. Brazil is doing that in our part of the Amazon. Roads come later
Its the 21 century. With all those modern machines and tech., roads could be built and paved. Prefabricated buildings could be built and so on.
yea but Guyana has such a low population there wont even be enough solders to patrol the area .
Something tells me this is not going to end well for Maduro ...
Is that something called wishful thinking?
@@andrejparunovic6888 it is my wish and it's also what i'm thinking. If the economic mismanagement won't bring the Maduro regime down, then this slumbering conflict may do so...
honestly, I do not think it will end well for the Venezuelan people, although I would like it to affect Maduro directly, those who always bear the brunt of any conflict are the civilians, in this case, I am mainly concerned about the indigenous peoples living in the region, as I do not know if either side will take measures to protect them
Maduro will end up like saddam in the history book.
No matter what happens it won't end well for the Venezuelan people. Venezuela is hopelessly broken.
Brilliant in depth analysis as always, Professor Jim🎉🎉
We are enjoying your lectures Prof.🎉🎉🎉
Very interesting report. Greetings from Cartagena,Colombia 🇨🇴 🫡
Thanks a lot! What is the view on all this from where you are?
@JamesKerLindsay with our new President Petro who is a former communist rebel. He has opened relations with Venezuela and the Maduro regime. Typically Colombia would create a two front situation for Venezuela since they also claim Colombian territory in the Guajira region and threatened to invade before. Our current government does not represent us. Most wish that Petro would have a red line with Maduro. But this will not happen with a recent oil agreement. Petro has also ruined our defensive capabilities by attacking Israel. Our fighter jets are Israeli and we also had anti aircraft missiles on order all ruined by the current administration. We hope Guyana does not fall to this socialist regime.We have 2 million Venezuelans as refuges because of the failed policies.
I also have to address another thing, professor. This conflict was not kickstarted by the British. It began with the Spanish and the Dutch. Guyana was originally a Dutch colony by the 16-17th century but Spain never recognised the Netherlands' control of Guyana, in particular Guayana Esequiba. But when the Dutch transferred to the British, Spanish rule in Latin America was weakened and eventually collapsed due to revolution there, so Britain opted status quo.
The Dutch area ended in the Esequibo, the British are the ones who occupied the rest. That's why Venezuela doesn't recognize the British area but does recognize the Dutch.
Venezuela is not Spain. Venezuela went to war with Spain for its independence. But during the revolution they never invaded Guayana, so how can they claim this territory is theirs if they never moved in to liberate it from European powers at the time
@@postmortemargIt was theirs, just not very occupied, as it isn't even today. And yes, Venezuela is thee heir to the Spanish colony in the region, obviously
@@postmortemargthey can't! Venezuela never once occupied the Essequibo but felt entitled to have everything claimed by those they fought. They're brainwashed crazy in school to believe themselves entitled to native American land now controlled by a native American country. This is why as a nation of majority immigrants, we have a native American name, native American crown presidential seal, native American golden arrowhead flag and native American national dish.
@@FOLIPE
What part of 'they didn't liberate Essequibo during their independence war' did you not get?
Can the USA annex half of Canada's land, even though America did not liberate Canada during the American revolutionary war?
Finally, I was waiting for this video. Thank you.
This matter was settled in 1899 that Guyana own the land of essiquibo. Venezuela sign, stamped and seal the document on this. Venezuela help to draw the border boundries and accepted that the land belong to guyana.
And, besides, they got the Orinoco as they wanted. They celebrated their victory, made maps with Venezuela as it is today. So, why start up again 60+ years after this issue was settled? All because of some letter some guy said to publish after his death about wrongdoing from the British? Like, that shit makes absolutely no sense!
And the funny thing about this is that Venezuela/Spain, at the time, never formally controlled or settled in the Essequibo. So, how can they make claims to land they've never had control over? The people in that region have no ties to Venezuela or Spain. So, saying the land belongs to them is ridiculous!
I predicted this would be the topic of this week's video when i heard about this story! Sadly, i didn't think to tell anyone so i can't confirm this. Can you open some sort of sweepstakes thing for us to post out predictions on?
Professor Ker-Lindsay, please do a video analysis about the Guatemala-Belize border conflict.
Complicating any potential Venezuelan invasion is the geography of the region. The actual VZ-GY border is mostly impassable jungle; the only roads pass through Brazil. So their options would be to 1) risk it and go through Brazil, effectively declaring war on a much larger neighbor; 2) attempt to cut through the rainforest on their border for very slow gains that are highly susceptible to disruption; or 3) attempt a sea-and-air invasion that would be extremely demanding on their largely untested military and probably violate the sovereignty of Trinidad and Tobago. If he decides to press his claim militarily, Maduro doesn't have any good options.
This doesn't mean he won't invade, of course; plenty of countries have launched ill-advised invasions. But I'd still say it's not super likely.
As you said this would be a logistical mess and very close to the US. If they wanted to invade it'd be "smarter" to just set up towns on the other side of the border and say they are yours anyway, and the important issue of course is the licenses to extract oil in the fields in the shore in front of the area. That's the real dispute I think
I hadn't considered a sea-and-air invasion, but I think its sounds like the most likely step.
So what you’re saying is that for them, this is not going to go smoothly
@@biggiouschinnus7489 and how are they supposed to resupply those troops?
@@Baebon6259 That's the neat thing - they won't.
Ukraine and Gaza-Israel are the current flashpoints - at least the conflicts that make it into the media. We don't care about the disasters and massacres in Sudan and Darfur. We are screaming bloody murder about the situation in Gaza, where our impact and influence is much more limited than in Ukraine. But land grabs are in danger of experiencing a revival: Venezuela, Ethiopia and China have serious ambitions to impose their will on a neighboring country, if necessary with military force.
The Kingdom of the Netherlands also includes (as far as I know, parts of) the Antilles. The direct threat may be minimal, but increasing chaos in neighboring countries is not welcome for economic and political stability - not even for Suriname, by the way. The future flashpoints are also close to strategic routes for trade to Europe, such as the Red Sea and the South China Sea. Not to forget the presence of large oil fields!
Most readers are aware that Wagner is also active in Africa. But the current regime of Venezuela also uses their services, check video for further details. There are of course other players such as Western countries and China - but Russia in particular benefits from escalating conflicts, including in South America. And China could also see an opportunity in a divided West and a globally chaotic situation to annex Taiwan or exert influence elsewhere.
The U.S. and EU are crucial power blocs to stem increasing chaos on a global scale. They are certainly not holy beans - but compared to the alternatives, they are the least of all evils. If they make crucial mistakes and neglect their counteractions, this will increase international instability. Then we are not only talking about war or physical danger for the Netherlands and its citizens, but also and possibly especially about the economic damage that will follow.
Russia is making modest investments elsewhere to pursue its agenda, such as in conflicts in the Middle East, South America and Africa. These are worrying developments. Then the question is: what are the spearheads to counter Russian influence, discourage international chaos and protect both security and economic prosperity in the West and the world? The obvious answer is to deny Putin his main prize: control of Ukraine.
If aid to Ukraine is structurally reduced and undermined, this entails short- and long-term risks that cannot only be expressed in monetary terms. But also financially and economically, the price tag of even 'just' a damaged and weakened Ukraine will one day knock off the door of the EU and our country. Besides, for both the EU and the U.S., investments in Ukraine are, in relative terms, only “small change” in terms of budget.
Shrewd opportunists and short-sighted politicians and egoists live only for today with a fantasy of impunity for self-interest. It is true that national problems are often serious and neglected due to laziness and old politics and need to be addressed. But closing the borders and considering foreign countries and the world as irrelevant is shooting ourselves in the foot and also a form of Russian roulette with our future.
Help Ukraine and stop Putin now. That is much cheaper than the alternative.
Both America and Russia will benefit from this potential conflict via proxy wars/organizations. Both are just as bad as each other in a sense.
Russia could simply drag out the conflict in Ukraine another two years if needed one or two more aid packages won't help Ukraine win it's a lost cause.
@@bilic8094seems the aid packages arent coming.
Yup - the slow action in Ukraine is making other convicts heat up.
@@bilic8094 youre missing the point.
We can limit the damage caused by Russia by more accurate, faster and substiantal countermeasures,both in Ukraine and globally. At the moment, both sides can not gain a serious advantage.
A temporary stalemate might turn into a permanent one for decades. Meanhwile, Putin and his gang will remain power and giving time to stir a lot of turmoil abroad to distract his foes. Desperation of a foe facing a democraphic decline in coming decades.
So its more a choice of going the hard way or the VERY hard way. Too little, too late is a old russian narritve that clearly proved wrong. With decent western aid, Ukraine inflicted serious damage to Russian forces, for a bargain price. The return on investment rate is quite substantial from a military-geopolitical point of view.
Within the coming 2 years, Russia will totalle deplete its old sovjet-era stocks and even a substantial raise in military production can not replace that, with the current rate of losses. Thus Ukraine does the job the west failed to do, neutralizing a current and future threat of Russia. Without Sovjet stocks, its more a king-side North Korea.
I grew up in the Caribbean, Trinidad to be precise, and never knew about this before, very informative!
Thanks for posting.
excellent and fascinating insight and analysis. Thanks. New subscriber!
Gracias por tratar este tema con la profundidad que requiere. Saludos desde Argentina.
Thank you so much. What is the view on all this in South America?
@@JamesKerLindsay Most South Americans are appalled and the majority have opposed Venezuela's actions. I think this act was shocking because it targeted a country that has never allied with the West till this point.
I feel that if Venezuela decides to launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana, no matter which outcome of this scenario will be, it can tilt the entire Latin America, traditionally neutral or sympathetic to Russia, into an increasing pro-American path, since most knew this referendum was encouraged by Russia. Russia's efforts will be ruined if this occurs, but, as happened with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, will Maduro care?
@@JamesKerLindsay En Argentina aún no se habla mucho de este tema. Acá hay una polaridad muy grande y estos conflictos tienden a simplificarse y quedan reducidos a cuestiones ideológicas con dos posiciones bien definidas: los que ven a Venezuela como un régimen dictatorial de izquierda, que es utilizado por Rusia para introducirse en la región, y lo que ven a Guyana como un estado títere que responde a los intereses de USA. Hay muchos matices entre estas dos posturas que no son tomados en cuenta y no es fácil encontrar información objetiva sobre estos temas.
@@todoesoqueellosdicen2868 Lo que Venezuela está haciendo contra Guyana es una clara señal de agresión por parte de un régimen despótico prorruso. Guyana no es Ucrania y Guyana nunca ha estado involucrada en ninguna guerra desde que se convirtió en un estado independiente. De hecho, Guyana fue uno de los países que optó por no apoyar a Occidente en Irak o Siria, y no está involucrado en la guerra en Ucrania. Guyana es un país muy pequeño con poco o ningún interés en los conflictos de otros países.
Al asfixiar a un país tan pequeño e históricamente neutral como Guyana, probablemente alentado por Putin, Venezuela dejó en claro que no busca la paz en la región.
@@peruano-quichwa---aymara8611De verdad crees que Guyana es tan neutral? Su primer ministro (anterior ministro de defensa) fue educado en una academia militar británica. Y hoy USA anunció que realizará ejercicios militares aéreos en Guyana. Como dije antes, hay muchos matices que deben ser considerados en este conflicto.
This is the best explanation of the situation. Great research. by prof james. I am from guyana and since i born and grow essiquibo belong to guyana.
Thank you for covering!
Russia has been using Venezuela as a puppet for years and Latin America is too divided to handle. Some of Latin America's most right-wing nations are typically those closely aligned to the US like Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic and Mexico, or either having significant Central and Eastern European population (these people are traditionally anti-Russian) like in Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador and Chile. The Russians knew this. Once, Russia downgraded tie with my country Peru, for over a year, after we elected Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a partial Polish Jew with a strong anti-communist sentiment, due to his hawkish approach against Maduro regime.
If Venezuela is allowed to invade Guyana, a small country in South America that has nothing to do with the other conflicts abroad, this shows how far Russia has gone for it. Russia cares deeply about Latin America as a region where they can be used, but Russia also flags which countries where either they have right-wing movements or either have strong Central and Eastern European heritages with suspicion.
Nobody in Latin America is anti-ruszian due to "ethnic ties to central and eastern Europeans", that is a wild idea as those populations are nor relevant nor particularly anti-Russian in Latin America
@@FOLIPE Yeah, like how Russians flagging Argentina a fascist state due to Ukrainian Argentines returning home to fight against Russian imperialism.
@@elmatadoraelmatador2587A few dozen people is nothing of importance. You can't explain the politics of 46 million people based on that
@@FOLIPE Russians see the world differently than you do. You think a dozen people is not an issue but this is because it is your view. But for Russians, "a dozen" mean the country. I haven't been to Russia but I have partners worked in Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine. I know a lot about their mentality.
@@elmatadoraelmatador2587no the Russians aren't stupid, they aren't demonizing Argentina or anything. They even accepted Argentina in the brics. You are the one strawmaning Russia, not the other way round
Thanks James. My request met with perfect timing. :-)
I’d guess Venezuela will invade, unless the USA lays down the consequences, along with Britain.
Thanks a lot. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I do worth that this is more than a bluff by Venezuela, largely because I can’t see any countries stepping forward with troops if Maduro does decide to invade.
Amazing how some people just are itching to fight wars all over the world eh
@@fishcane1 The US is the ‘policeman’ of the world, so if it isn’t going to be the British, it will be the US. After all, it’s in our back yard, not Britain’s. Secondly, if Venezuela is allowed to bully Guyana, who will be next?
France too no? They train their troops in Guyana's jungles and have airbases near in French Guiana.
@@FOLIPE Venezuela is, for sure!
Thank you for the in-depth information on the topic of Venezuela Guyana border dispute. It is greatly appreciated. Thank you for the hard work and concise Delivery.
Thanks as always Prof 👍🏻👍🏻
США, Великобритания и Бразилия вы должны защищать Гайану потому что если Мадуро возьмет что то в Гайане это дестабилизирует весь регион и нападения будут и на Кубу и на Флориду , поэтому разместите в Гайане войска США и Великобритания и корабли 🛳!
Nós não queremos a presença dos estados unidos, nem do reino unido aqui na América do Sul. O Brasil precisa resolver isso 'sozinho'.
The world let Azerbaijan annex land forcefully, this was the catalyst for any country to do it under "historical rights" in recent years.
There is a stark contrast. Karabakh was recognized as Azeri territory by the UN members. Even Armenia did so. Esequiba is recognized as Guyanese.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth No, Essequibo never has been ratify as Guyanesse land! its a Limbo land under Geneva 1966 act.
@@baneofbanes No really, its a subject of disputed territory recognized by UN before the Helsinski act of 1974.
@@herluisalvarado8366 It has actually. And all UN members recognize it as such. Other than Venezuela, nobody else thinks the land is disputed. And Venezuela itself signed a treaty with Britain recognizing the current border, which it later unilaterally denounced.
I wouldn't say Azerbaijan kosovo was far worse ripping a territory off a sovereign country set a very dangerous precedent well before crimea and donbass also.
Thank you for covering!!
I learned a lot. Thank you, sir.
Thank you for another superb analysis.
I have a question. Guyana, I believe, is part of the Commonwealth. In this respect, does the United Kingdom have some obligations?
So far, I have not heard of any reaction from the UK.
1) As far as I know, Guyana haven't asked us to intervene and the US haven't given us permission to.
2) A former colonial power intervening militarily on a different continent is just as problematic as Maduro's proposed land grab. The cure can't be worse than the disease.
3) Russia would have a field day pointing this out.
4) The UK isn't a major power anymore. Of course, we are much more powerful than Venezuela but much less powerful than their Russian masters.
Really, the best result would be for the major South American countries themselves to intervene. If Brazil, Columbia, Argentina and Chile all stationed troops there, Maduro would surely have to back down on the military action even though he probably wouldn't on the claim . I guess we're about to find out if Lula is a genuine leftist in the best sense of the term or a left-wing idealogue.
@@martinhartecfc. Well, King Charles is head of state of Guyana. Supposedly he has some obligations in this regard?
i think the head of state thing is more symbolic than actual authority@@MagnaQ
@@martinhartecfc Sorry, but a few brazilian troops won't dissuade maduro.
Lula is doing minimal effort.
@@MagnaQKing Charles isn't head of state of Guyana. Guyana is a republic. Its president is its head of state.
I'm tired of war... that's all I can say.
Very interesting. Thanks!
Very thorough, neutral, and clear. Thanks for covering this topic
The Essquibo crisis which was for years a frozen territorial dispute escalated incredibly quickly when compared to other major border disputes in Latin America for example between Guatemala and Belize.
One word: Oil
It actually has been going on for years. Venezuela has been asking for their land back for years and have been threatening war for nearly 10 years now.
Those that control disputed land just need to drag there feet for decades hoping the other side forgets about it.
@@adelestears8298 It is difficult to argue that it was ever Venezuelan land. They really have no history of administering, surveying, or otherwise doing government-type things there. That was always done by the British, Dutch, and of course the native people themselves. That was pretty much what all of the diplomatic, arbitration, and court rulings have found. It was Venezuelan intransigence on accepting anything other than a finding in their favor that has caused this issue to fester.
@@adelestears8298 If your country agreed to the boarders in the 1800s you do *NOT* get to claim over 100 years later that you want the land back.
Stop being a barbarian. Do you want endless wars all around the world?
Professor, greetings and thank you for your presentation. We are being threatened with armed conflict. We have never threatened anyone and have only ever wanted to live in peace. That said, we will NOT just roll over and play dead. For us, the 1899 award was final. We have no comparable military force but there are always " asymmetric means", apart from robust US and UK support.
Sir, this war will be asymmetric, but not in the way people think.
It will be US, britain, canada, french, peruvian, colombian, brazilian support.
After this, maduro will be gadhaffied.
How can an agreement be valid if one of the affected parts is not allowed to participate in it?
Thank you, Brother, for your video.
Is there normally background music? I’ve never noticed but I like it
As a Spanish myself, I would say that it is better for Venezuela to leave this alone and accept that it is now Guyana land. I agree that Spain was the one who disliked this boundary, but Spain's biggest mistake was to press on to claim more lands while the economy was increasingly depleted. The French Revolution in 1789 and subsequent Napoleon invasion made Spain impossible to govern Esequibo. The draining of budget to fuel Spanish monarchy contributed to the eventual collapse of the Spanish Empire in Central and South America later on, and the begin of Spain's internal crisis that would only end in 1939.
We should have never pressed on Esequibo at all. It's worthless. We actually got an even greater amount of resources and actually Venezuela itself is supposed to be a gigantic oil field had it not been for the Chavistas regime. Spain was already among the richest in the world by the 18th century, but we missed the opportunities and the other Latin American nations are suffering as a consequence.
You do know that currently Mexicos economy surpasses Spain. Mexico is 12 on the list while Spain is 15. South Korea is 13 and Australia 14.
No, it is.part of Venezuela and an usurped territory. We signed the ginebra agreement to find a resolution that satisfy both countries
@@zamirroalol Geneva what? 1899 arbitration!!! Spanish never conquered or occupied Esequibo!!!!!! The dutch had control then british then Guyana- keep begging and staying poor
@@bwooodstar You mean the reunion where France and Britain decided over territory without Venezuelan representation? it's pretty much fair play if Venezuela anexes the territory lol
@@bwooodstar It seems you don't know right? Ginebra agreement buddy. It dictates that both countries must seek for a resolution that benefits both sides.
Arbitration from 1899 is not valid right now.
Good morning James,
Much as the region that Venezuela is trying to annex is resource rich but sparsely populated - what is the opinion of the local population in that region ? And what control does Venezuela exercise as of today for them to set 90 day deadlines to foreign oil companies ? Or is that message just meant to please Maduro's local audience ?
Hi Anirudh, lovely to hear come you. I hope all is well at your end. Great questions. From what I can’t tell, the area is very sparsely populated, mainly by indigenous peoples. It’s unclear what they might think. But overall I think that this is a case of Maduro trying to distract and please his domestic audience in the face of a horrible economic situation. The problems that, as one observer said, what appears to have started as a publicity stunt seems to be snowballing out of control. He may have no option but to take action. Importantly, the oil is actually located offshore. So I’m not sure what he will be planning. It’s certainly worrying situation. I think my even greater concern is that this all
Appears to be part of a wider pattern of international relations that is emerging where the old rules about territorial integrity are breaking down.
@@JamesKerLindsayYou left some important part about how the representative from the u.s, russia and britain vote in favor of britain case over esikibo border because of the UK secret deal with russia. That part you can see in this video czcams.com/video/biV4LMoO1FY/video.htmlsi=blNVA0_8ZBfwhN6g
Are you sure you are being impartial and not have any bias what so ever? Beccause for example you mentioned the 1969 act of free choice alot and refers it as a sham. Why you don't mentioned the same thing here?
Thank you for the briefing, though short, but thorough.
Thanks. I try my best. :-)
Thankfully this has cooled a bit. James are there any parallels to Guatemala and Belize? Muchas Gracias.
Thanks a lot. Yes, it does seem as though Maduro has backed down, for now. Although I wouldn’t put it past him to reignite tensions. Great question about Belize and Guatemala. I’d have to look into the precise details. But there are a few of these situations; not just in South America, but elsewhere around the world. The key challenge we face is that while countries used to have to grudgingly accept territorial ‘injustices’ we do seem
To be moving into an era where the old legal rules are being challenged and states feel that they can just take land that they feel belongs to them.
As a Venezuelan I would like to thank you for the accurate information that you give here in contrast with the abundant incomplete news that are currently being published omiting important details in the issue. Lets hope that everything will be solved in peace.
Sigue estando muy incompleto ignorando el acuerdo de ginebra y fraude detectado por la memorias póstumas de uno de los abogados del laudo arbitral París, en todos los medios ingleses omiten el acuerdo de ginebra y detalles que cambian todo el relato, todos muestran una versión haciendo lucir a Venezuela como agresor y a guyana como víctima indefensa lo que es totalmente falso
lol with 95% support seems like most Venezuelans want war.
why don’t he do something with what he has - they have the 10th largest reserves. This is attention grabbing for his election.
Probably United States has their Hands Full.. so it will let them do it ...for Now... I a mean time Guyana can't do anything...they have less than a million of people...
it doesn't matter. You have enough oil. Focus on developing what you already have instead of bullying a much smaller neighbor. And by the fact that you speak english its clear that you're probably of the Venezuelan upper class. Which means sympathy is difficult.
FINALLY. A South America video! Thank you James!
Haha! It does happen sometimes. Not as much as it should, I admit. How is everything?
@@JamesKerLindsay I am doing great James! Don't worry I have been watching your videos. I don't comment cause I don't want to trouble you by making you reply. Ha Ha. :) Keep up the good work!
@luxembourgishempire2826 No trouble at all! It’s always great to hear from the old timers who’ve been around since early days. :-) So glad to hear all is well.
Thanks for this information 😊
Very well explained.
As a Guyanese, this is deeply upsetting. They have no claim and settled it in 1899, which they accepted. This is being done as a distraction from the problems in Venezuela and a resource grab.
did venezuela accept ? is there any formal agreement ? i never heard ...
They literally do have a claim,it was once their shit
People often seem to forget the Ginebra teatry. Guyana, England and Venezuela signed that document. All of them agreed that the arbitrary line settled during 1899 is not valid because the legal process was not impartial and legit. Guyana does recognise that there is a dispute and that Venezuela has a claim. And the one violating that treaty is Guyana, not Venezuela. The only reason Guyana has support from the US right now is because they don't like Venezuela's government, even though Venezuela has everything to back up their claim legally. It is as simple as that.
This does come across as quite strange and bizzare .
I mean it's not as if Venezuela is short of land as its having difficulty managing the land it does control .
This does look like some kind of deflective move in order to take away the focus of venesuaelas dire economic problems .
Chavez must be turning in his grave at the thought of invading a neighbor , as always in cases like this there must be ulterior motives in the mix .
Thanks so much. Yes, you’re right. Vemezuela has more than enough oil already, and can’t manage it. It’s going to just try to mismanage more! It certainly does come across as a populist publicity stunt to deflect from Venezuela’s problems. The worry now is that he may feel that he has to see it through.
Hi Professor, do you think that if Venezuela does invade and annex Esequibo with relative impunity this will be the nail in the coffin of post WW2 order?
Very good comprehensive research.
Thank you so much.
Let's see how far Lulas love for peace reaches, when his neighbourhood is concerned. Did he already attack the US for supporting Guyana?
Peace is always better than war, especially other people's war
@@FOLIPE That's quite a surprising opinion.
@@juliarichter6987I guess you are from a militarist nation, which Brazil isn't
@@FOLIPE We aren't, but we love irony.
@@FOLIPEWell, congrats, lula is in a binder.
Telling maduro "stop" is not enough.
Look at rio now, are you sure brazil isn't a militaristic?
Certainly a good chunck of lula's base is very militaristic, to the point of holding territory as petty thief nations.
We have the equivalent of several petty gazas here. Brazil is militaristic.
Can you do a video on the Ogaden Region in the Horn of Africa and will it ever be able to take its independence?
Well put together
I wonder what were the arguments on both sides of judical arbitration? As far as I see, all territories west of Easeqibo river were part of Venezuela during Gran Colombia, so how did the territory become a part of Guyana?
It was claimed by the Spaniards but the region was never actually controlled by any european or post colonial state until the British settlers popped up in the river delta later on.
It’s like Portugal with its pink map; when they initially claimed that all of Africa belongs to them because of papal decrees and the treaty of Tordesillas at the Berlin congress, despite the fact that the actual zone of control was just parts of coastal Angola&Mozambique.
Spain and the Netherlands used to fight for control over South America. At that time, Guyana was a Dutch colony and the Dutch were the first to arrive at the Esequiba region. However the Spanish crown disputed it and so war broke out. When the Netherlands won their independence from Spain after a bloody war, Spain acknowledged Dutch independence but didn't accept the Dutch controlling the Esequiba region. The Netherlands later transferred Guyana to Britain but Britain opted for a status quo, a reason for what is happening today.
Gran Colombia encompassed territories that now belong to Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama, northern Peru, western Guyana, and northwest Brazil. So I am not too sure the relevance here. The fact is, Venezuela is in defiance not only as it relates to the 1899 Award, but recent ICJ rulings regarding the Court's jurisdiction to arbitrate the issue, as well as rulings preventing any kind of unilateral action.
@@Livermore1234That region is disputed, other borders have been settled. This is the conection
@@FOLIPE The only dispute is from Venezuela. It is doing everything in its powers to side step the terms of the Geneva Agreement, which allows the ICJ to adjudicate on the matter.
As long as the UN exists in its current form, it is just unless in maintaining peace.
The trouble is that it is hard to see how it can be reformed. And a new organisation would not have full international legitimacy. It would just be a collection of like-minded states. This would end a flawed, but nevertheless useful, forum for international contact and debate. As frustrating as the situation is, I do really believe that the world would become a lot more insecure and unstable without it.
@@JamesKerLindsay Indeed, and there is no "League of the Pure", or anything else like it to take the UN's place. Unfortunate as that is, I believe that is the case.
@@JamesKerLindsay To be reformed, first the UNSC veto must be ended for all their powerfull members which abusse from it to protect their interests! Also all UN members must join at ICC to face any war crimes in ilegal wars arround the World and ratify the 1998 Roma status.
@@JamesKerLindsay It certainly can be reformed. India should be a permanent member of the UNSC, and there are others too who should have a place. The current 5 members may not be the correct fit even if they were at the time of the formation of the UN. Expansion of the membership is probably the best way instead of removing over representation by the Europeans. Germany, as a powerful nation should be, as is a representation of the African continent, Brazil, Japan and a Middle Eastern country should all be considered so that the UN represents the world.
Classic dictator tactics: the country is going down the pan under my control so I will create a massive foreign distraction by going for a land grab.
Exactly. The worry is that he may feel that he has to go through with it and that the whole basis of international relations is changing so much that he feels can go through with it. A very worrying combination!
I truly have no idea how this will play out. Will Venezuela attack, or is it just posturing in an effort to rally around a leader? Despite their surperior military, could they actually take the dense rainforest land? Would they even need to, or could they just roll their navy into the exclusive economic zones? Would there be foreign intervention? So many ways this could play out, but I first and foremost hope the people of Esequiba stay safe.
a venezuelan coworker who has some knowledge about just anything; told me that the venezuelans are going to allow being attacked first so they can be in a state of war and Maduro won't go through elections
They would have to come by sea, or take the round about way through Brazil. Brazil has moved more troops and armor to the Venezuelan border in case they were thinking of option 2.
The west needs to grow some balls
Agree, otherwise in few decades to dictatorship regimes with more wars will rule the world
decrepit, failing states like Iran, Russia and Venezuela are eager to goad US Europe and Democratic Asia into a fight, Russia and Venezuela dont have much left to lose, their countries are in the toilet.
I wonder if Venezuela claiming to annex Essequibo might have a positive effect on the population. I’ll explain:
Currently, the economic situation in Venezuela is causing people to want to flee. No country wants their population to leave en masse, so Venezuela is not making it easy to leave.
However, if desperate Venezuelans want to move to Essequibo then that’s a positive for them! In Venezuela’s eyes they’re not leaving Venezuela as Essequibo is Venezuela, Maduro says so constantly. In everyone else’s eyes they left Venezuela for a much more prosperous rising star country. Even if the refugees agree that Essequibo is Venezuela they’re now in an area eligible for Guyanese social services and better Guyanese infrastructure. The only downside is an influx of “refugees” into Guyana.
Has no one else wanting to flee Venezuela thought of this one weird trick that will allow them to flee with the government’s blessing?
Interesting thought. Then Venezuela can legitimise their claim by pointing to the population being largely Venezuelan citizens.
@@mulamulelilumadi4717most of the people in that territory are indigenous are Indian or Afro Guyanese who speak English and don’t want to be associated with anything Spanish .
@@mulamulelilumadi4717 The influx of Venezuelans wont be entitled to gain Guyanese citizenship without the consent of Guyana. They will likely be given non-Guyanese asylum seekers cards and would eventually be returned to Venezuela. Guyana cannot be flooded with non-citizens for benefits.
Thank you Prof for this very explicit episode of history
Sir, kindly research the historical records properly before asserting that the territory is disputed. The border between Venezuela and British Guiana was settled in 1899 and signed and incorporated into each country's constitution.
I think Venezuela is waiting for a signal, I can’t imagine they are super eager to charge into war right now. However should war break out in Europe, the South China Sea.. east Asia etc etc they might make their move.
Maybe just imagining things but I feel like February 20 to February 22 2024 might be important.
Finally me and James agrees on something also the Hard Left coming out in favor of legitimizing Spanish Empire claims is cute
@AfroFvturism What have you disagreed with James about in the past?
James clearly explain that venezuela accepted the result from 1899. They sign and stamped the documents so the land essiquibo belong to the british and now guyana.
Brazil has moved army units close to the area, reportedly as the only practical route by land from Venezuela involves passing through Brazilian territory. Ain't gonna happen.
I am not familiar South American conflict but it seem this is economically driven conflict.
The disputed land may have natural resources that recently discovered.
These are always bigger countries or stronger nations tries to bully smaller countries. These bigger population nations always find an excuse to attacked the smaller one. If the UN punished these bigger countries who attacked their neighbors, this will be an end of invasions. Otherwise,what is the point of having Unated Nation. Every country big or small will defend themselves on self survival mode.
The bigger countries think they have more people to get more soldiers and they would came out unscrached.
Look the myth Russia couldn't won against Ukraine for more than two years although Ukraine has the supports from the west.
Border conflicts around the world always problems.
Millions died for small land or sometimes 10 to 20 km. Sometimes, it doesn't even worthy and the small land had no values. Fore example, Ethiopia and Eritrea when to war for small land and small town.
I would say Maduro is playing a beautiful game right now because whether the world likes it or not his controlling position in Venezuela cannot be ignored. Uniting people behind the flag and patriotism has been a continuous feature in the history of the country and this represents an extension of that. The idea of a military take over of the region is unlikely in the short term unless Maduro loses control of the narrative and a more extremist political party takes on this fight as a vote winner due to the success of the referendum.
Reasonable analysis.
Although the referendum is a fluke
@@ArtseyHayton06 Not sure how you call it a fluke, and I would also say Venezuela have a fair claim historically speaking. No doubt the reasons are primarily economic but longer term with Guyana's growing wealth and the failing local system there could be a greater threat to Venezuela.
@@ArtseyHayton06 a fluke is an oddity, something unlikely to occur again. This has been an issue over three distinct centuries now. Do you perhaps mean to say the referendum was a sham?
@@EamonCoylebecause despite the 'high' turnout, in actuality it was very low. That's why I call it a fluke.
Madero has a death wish
Another matter that needs clarification is the establishment of the boundary between Venezuela and British Guiana at arbitration. A German had established that boundary 50 years earlier. Why German? Because the Germans were the first explorers (conquistadores) in that region.
"As the dispute became a crisis, the key issue became Britain's refusal to include in the proposed international arbitration the territory east of the "Schomburgk Line", which a surveyor had drawn half a century earlier as a boundary between Venezuela and the former Dutch territory of British Guiana.[12] "
That was a valid reason for the establishment of the boundary between Venezuela and Guyana, as determined via arbitration in 1899.
If you look at a map produced by Venezuela itself at its formation you will clearly see that their map did not enter into Guyana's territory today but stopped at a location east of the Orinoco River but not extending to current regions of Guyana and certainly not even in the vicinity of the Essequibo River.
Unless Brazil interferes on Guyana's behalf they're screwed. While people are right too point out you can't really conduct a military operation in a rain forest Guyana is so small (population wise) that they won't be able too do anything if an invasion happens they simply don't have the means. Even an insurgency would have limited effect due too the population size. At best U.S. will re-sanction Venezuela nothing more
Wrong. The US can win this war with a single carrier.
But then there's brittain, france, canada...
Gostei porque a legenda fica em português
Very good synposis Prof. Especially on the ICJ part. Quite clearly the Russian/China world order would be based of publishing new maps and acting militarily on them.
In terms of whether Venezuala will invade I think will be what Putin wants.
Thanks so much. I agree. I really do worry that we are moving back to a 19th century approach to the world, where great power might is right determines international relations. A truly worrying trend. This is the reason why I take such a tough position on Russia and Ukraine. Putin has got to be beaten and the respect for territorial integrity restored. (And the West also needs to learn that it can’t bend rules, but then expect others not to break them!)
@@JamesKerLindsay "where great power might is right determines international relations." Is this not the reason for the Ukraine war? Ukraine wanted to settle the matter with Russia initially but NATO (USA) actually said no, you gotta fight and we will arm you to the teeth. Well, it is NATO, not Russia. But you get your news from popular American TVs so you need to view other opinions from around the word, but not NATO from Europe either.
Thanks
what is the opinion of the people living in this area on the matter? Do they have any affiliation with Venezuela or are they totally against any form of annexation?
Great question. From what I can tell, the area is sparsely inhabited. But under international law that doesn’t matter. And even if the population did want to leave, there is no recognised right to unilateral secession, let alone a right for a neighbouring state to annexe the territory. The principle of self-determination in non-colonial contexts is limited to autonomy within existing borders - unless the parent state agrees otherwise. However one looks at it, Venezuela’s actions are a direct violation of international law.
@@JamesKerLindsayand then there's Kosovo...
This is something Akin to what Saddam Hussein did to Kuwait in the early 1990's .. & most probably for the same reasons...Oil Cartelisation !!! 🤔😯☠️
Actually venezuela claims since day 1 that the paris arbitral award was unfair but never say something UNTIL the memorandum Mallet-Prevost was published
Exactly. It is Guyana who annexed the region for so long. Both countries should have left the region alone as it was disputed, but Guyana didn't listen and that is typical Guyana. This is the consequences of their action.
@@adelestears8298 Guyana did not annex any region. The boundaries were defined during the British colonial days. And the 1899 arbitral ruling gave the British the right to the territory west of the Essequibo as defined by Guyana's boundary with Venezuela.
@@satmohabir7175 and Venezuela never agreed to it that's why the area was posted as disputed teritority. Guyana has no business exploiting it.
8:45 I liked the "sly" way of saying that Guyana has the largest oil reserves "per capita" in the world. Venezuela actually has the largest reserves in the world, and is embargoed by the USA. The American media hides this.
9:15 There's a bit of a problem with those referendum questions since they seem somewhat leading.
Imagine being the muppet of Russia, a country with a gdp per capita 50% smaller than that of Romania.
Well, quite!
Russia has the greatest economy is europe, 5th in the World - of actual production, not like most of the western fluffy economy
@@Sweven521
*The 10 Largest Economies in the World*
1. USA
2. China
3. Germany
4. Japan
5. India
6. UK
7. France
8. Italy
9. Brazil
10. Canada
Professor Lindsay…I noticed you didn’t mention the Guyanese military helicopter that crashed close to Venezuela on December 6, 2023. Do you believe Maduro’s regime had anything to do with that incident?
Thanks. It wasn’t left out for any nefarious reason. I scripted and filmed it before I could cover this. (This is why I don’t usually like covering rapidly evolving stories. Anything can happen between filming and publication.)
The Munster treaty between Spanish and Dutch recognizes Dutch conquests and its independence.
Thanks. Great point! There is of course a truly fascinating history between Spain and the Netherlands.
🙏🇬🇾🇬🇾🇬🇾
Are we headed for another "from the river to the sea" stand-off in the world, that is the question ?
An important thing that seems to be explained in this video is that on one morning in 1962, Venezuela woke up on the wrong foot and did not recognize anything at all. Venezuela did not recognize the 1899 treaty because it was a decision made behind its back (in which, in fact, it did not participate), but rather it demonstrated that the treaty was legally flawed and therefore void; For this reason, the UN declared the area under claim and the Geneva agreement was reached and therefore, no country can take advantage of its natural resources. Or do you think the UN would accept anything Venezuela said without some true document?
@tanitox37 Venezuela accepted the 1899 arbitral ruling. Only much later it has second thoughts but no proof that the ruling was legally flawed. The UN did not make a ruling, it is before the ICJ as this court has claimed jurisdiction over the matter. But unless Venezuela has proof that the 1899 decision was flawed, it will be discharged and that ruling will carry the day. And it will.
The OAS does not look kindly to Venezuela's militaristic stance.
Statement from the OAS General Secretariat Regarding Recent Actions from the Regime in Venezuela towards Guyana
December 7, 2023
The General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS) expresses a sense of urgency and gravity regarding the aggressive stance of the Maduro regime of Venezuela towards the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, which has escalated to a point of significant concern for regional security and constitutes a matter that threatens the stability and territorial sovereignty within our hemisphere.
It is imperative to recall that the boundary established in 1899 by an international Arbitration Committee is in force and legally binding on all parties under international law. This award is currently reinforced by proceedings and decisions at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). These proceedings were mandated by the United Nations Secretary General in accordance with the terms of a 1966 agreement signed in Geneva by representatives of the governments of Venezuela and Guyana.
The Maduro regime is continuing to take and promote unlawful actions against Guyana, such as conducting an illegal and illegitimate referendum on December 3, 2023, by which it seeks to annex the Essequibo region. This action was taken not only in flagrant disregard for international law and decisions of the ICJ but also, once more, with an undemocratic use of democratic processes.
The Venezuelan regime had already pursued other aggressive actions before the referendum, including several incidents and acts of intimidation. These illegal actions have escalated and now the violations of the recent decision of the International Court of Justice are flagrant: the Venezuelan dictatorship is adopting jurisdictional actions in matters of defense, nationality, administration and economics in clear violation of the jurisdiction and territorial integrity of another State.
It must be also especially taken into account that the Venezuelan regime has been in permanent violation of the universal regulations of Human Rights -as attested by reports from the United Nations system- and of the inter-American regulations of Human Rights -as attested by reports from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR). The authorities of the regime are being investigated before the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity; the Venezuelan regime has been a stubborn and persistent violator of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, it has generated by its own actions the worst migratory crisis in the Hemisphere and the worst humanitarian crisis in the hemisphere, apart from the corruption trials referring to PDVSA and drug trafficking trials that involved circles close to the dictatorship.
The recent actions taken by the regime in Venezuela not only jeopardize the development and stability of Guyana, but also pose a broader risk to the security of Latin America and the Caribbean - a situation that has been repeatedly condemned by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).
In light of these developments, and with the ICJ decision on provisional measures against Venezuela on December 1, 2023, the General Secretariat reaffirms and endorses the request for a meeting of the OAS Permanent Council as soon as possible. This meeting would aim to discuss possible measures to mitigate this crisis and explore solutions that respect international law and regional stability.
Reference: E-082/23
Thank you. Good to see such a clear and strong stance from the OAS.
These comments are extremely interesting. I'm a born and raised Guyanese, so I'll try my best to not to be bias in my statement. Yes, Essequibo did belong to the Venezuelans and some may argue that it still does. Guyana was not independent when the agreement in 1966 was made, we became independent a couple months after. I believe the reason why the Venezuelans "changed their mind" about the agreement made in 1899 was because they were basically tricked by the British (Not the Guyanese, we were not independent) when a vote was in process. Hence, the second agreement in 1966. So to those of you saying that the Venezuelans legally own Essequibo. They do not. The Geneva Agreement was not settled and is left open for discussion between the two nations. The reason why we are even on the land is partially because we are moving on the grounds of the first agreement albeit it was unfairly won by the British (not our fault) and because before any Spanish or dutch even got there it was our indigenous people (the Amerindians) that were there and are still there. The Essequibo region is currently home to our indigenous people and most of our natural resources. There is a reason why Essequibo is left in its natural state. We are trying to preserve our natural minerals and forest. Honest question, do you think any of the resources would still be there if the Venezuelans were owning it to this day? No offense but because of the bad management our neighbors are not doing so well and that's not to say we are perfect but I think we are doing a pretty good job preserving our natural regions.
And we have no bad blood with Venezuelans, in fact we open our arms to the refugees that run from Maduro. Again, the Geneva Agreement was not settled, and that is what Guyana is currently trying to settle legally and peacefully; and I say Guyana only because Maduro and his government said they are not going to adhere to anything the ICJ says. We are a small, peaceful nation, we've never asked for trouble and we literally mind our business. I honestly never thought this would happen to us. Just as the Venezuelans say "we've known Essequibo to be ours" so do we, except our culture is actually deeply rooted to it. Essequibo is not just a part of our land but a part of our culture and togetherness. So I'm not asking any of you to take sides, I don't expect you to. I'm just asking that you keep both nations in your prayers and not spew rude and senseless comments like some of the ones I've been reading. Thank you professor for speaking on the situation, God bless. (Oh and please correct me if I'm wrong on any information shared)
You are mistaken saying that Essequibo was once Venezuelan territory. It has never been venezuelan territory. What actually happened is that the Spaniards from spain being the "first" european people to come to the Caribbean and south america had maps drawn as they explored. They included the Essequibo region in a lot of their maps even though they did not physically have settlements in the area. This was due to the area having just as difficult terrain back then as it does today. I have maps that i drew in school that show that the entire of europe is my territory, but sadly i cannot say that these are actually mine as i physically do not have my settlements there. Even though i have maps claiming that europe is my territory, the world would find it strange if i went to court to claim europe as my lands.
I relate to the *spirit* in which you wrote and would add a few things. The 1899 arbitration was mediated by colonialist, please note which countries. They had no options, at that time. Since 1966 Venezuela has tried to negotiate with Guyana, but it is unclear why they have not been able to reach some kind of agreement. I can tell you that I grew up seeing the guyana esequiba as venezuelan territory (albeit always marked with stripe lines indicating in dispute) in my school books. You also mentioned the success of Guyana in preserving the esequiba. I agree, but I wouldn't credit management per se, rather, you have 30x smaller population. Nevertheless, the crux of the problem is not mentioned - Guyana decided to grant licenses to American Oil companies, effectively ignoring the dispute. For that perspective the Venezuelan response is really not entirely surprising to Georgetown (or to other countries). Consequently, they also plan to issue exploration licenses. Sadly, this will likely adversely affects human capital in both countries, maybe third parties will get involved. This is a expected outcome for the world that we live in. I share your sentiment, prayers for all the leaders involved is the best we can do. 🙏
I am Venezuelan. Gran sábana and Esequibo also mean a lot for us. I grew up knowing that territory belonged rightfully to us. The British recognized the border during the time of Gran Colombia because there was a powerful army to defend it. Once that was gone it was up of grabbers. So much that the real target of the British Empire was to take the Orinoco River to keep messing and invading as usual business. They pushed the schomburgk line so much it even covered Venezuelan Towns such as El callao or Guasipati. With all due respect this is the way I look at it. If someone steals your car and then parks it in my house. That doesn’t mean that because I’m a good person I can keep it. It was still robbed and you suffered for it. We will always be neighbors and that will not change. Thank you for sharing your side.
@@colombeiallc2238 You only think that Essequibo is yours because it was falsely stated in your school books. That was a strategy of the Venezuelan government to produce citizens to recognize Essequibo as being theirs. So, that strategy has worked, as you so declared, as planned, that Essequibo belongs to Venezuela.
Essequibo was never Venezuelan territory. It was occupied by the Dutch before it was owned by the UK. Look at the original map of Venezuela, a stamped map to show the boundary of Venezuela and there is nothing that includes any part of Essequibo. It was just east of the Orinoco River which Venezuela still owns.
The arbitral ruling in 1899 actually shared the disputed territory under consideration. The UK was asking for land up to the Orinoco River but that was denied. The beneficiary was Venezuela. The Venezuelans were asking for territory up to the Cuyuni but that was enlarged. So while British Guiana rightfully owned Essequibo, Venezuela gained some land too though not all they asked for. It was arbitration that was agreed to. It was not a legal process.
This reminds me a little of the lead up to the Argentine-Falklands-Malvines war. It sometimes seems when a nation has major political and financial problems, the leaders look to find a cause to take people's minds of the problems in their own country.
Thanks. Great point. I agree. There are some interesting parallels with the Falklands.