Will Killing the MAX-7 Save Southwest?!
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- čas přidán 14. 06. 2024
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Southwest Airlines, with its fleet of 737’s, has been one of the most loyal Boeing customers. But with empty seats starting to cause serious financial issues for the airline, their future could be in serious trouble.
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Below you will find the links to videos and sources used in this episode.
SOURCES
• Southwest Airlines "Ma...
• Southwest Airlines "Ma...
• The 60 Minutes intervi...
• Southwest Airline (197...
• NBC News story on Sout...
• Southwest Airlines 199...
• 1989 Southwest Airline...
• In a Blink: Southwest ...
• NATIONAL AVIATION MAIN...
• Upgraded Boarding
• A Day in the Life of a...
• United - Meet the CIEO...
• Why it's unlikely Sout...
• U.S. grounding Boeing ...
• Why Southwest is havin...
• Aircraft Make-Ready Pr...
• How Southwest Supports...
• Port Alberni’s Coulson...
• NYC Informational Picket
• 737-800 Arrival at Sou...
• Feds sue to block US A...
• Boeing and Ryanair CEO...
• JetBlue-Spirit Airline...
• WestJet’s 737 MAX: Beh...
• Testing the MAX: Boein...
www.reuters.com/business/aero...
www.reuters.com/business/aero...
www.planespotters.net/airline...
www.planespotters.net/airline...
www.avweb.com/aviation-news/s...
aviationa2z.com/index.php/202...
leehamnews.com/2024/05/06/44478/
www.newsweek.com/southwest-ai...
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The sponsor transition is the best i've seen
I figured Southwest would buy Alaskan Airline. Are they not an all Boeing airline too?
Southwest needs to start ordering Airbus now.
You should understand that the word "data" is a plural noun.
They could buy Alaska Airlines or Sun Country Airlines. Ofc they could buy jetblue, but after the whole spirit situation i dont think southwest wanna go thru that nightmare again?
Southwest: how much would it cost for an Airbus with a Boeing cockpit 🤔😂
😂
Russian manufacturers would happily make such a thing
@@erkinalpand would likely do a decent job with that modification…that would be crazy
@@kamakaziozzie3038 They actually can't. The MC-21 produced with all russian made components is overweight, underpower and not efficient enough compared to the NEO or MAX. The final range for MC-21 is expected to be as low as 2,000 km. Which is 68% less range compared to the original design with western engines/parts.
The russians doesn't have the capability to actually produce next generation aircrafts.
approximately 15 billion in development costs
SWA used to be the "cool" airline. I was on the last SWA flight of the night out of Las Vegas to Ontario, bitd/pre-911, with about 12 other passengers--half of which were SWA employees. Mid-flight, the captain comes into the cabin and explains that, according to their calculations they had a good chance to beat the SWA record for flight time from LAS to ONT. He explained that, from our prospective, it would only involve a couple of banks steeper than we were used to and, though it was totally safe, he would only do it if everyone agreed. The SWA deadheading staff was incredibly enthusiastic so we all agreed it was okay. Anyway, it was totally exhilarating doing those steep banks and we did, in fact, beat the company record by about 3 minutes. There was such a rowdy celebration when they announced we had done it. After we parked, the crew came out and we all chatted about it for about 10 minutes before we got off. That kind of stuff could never happen these days.
Hahaha! That’s hilarious
@@MentourNow And the good "old Southwest." Not the new one that abandoned its customers in the snowstorm in 2022. Said by a loyal Southwest customer. The corporate rot is everywhere, sadly.
@@johnharvey7913i was one of those stranded and they cost me enough United miles to get home it lst me a pair of Polaris business class to europe. There solution, the same amount of southwest miles. Not even close to making me whole. I would rather walk than fly them again. I a
Had been saving those miles for years. It makes me cry even now
I was going to say, as an employee. Please do NOT compare the anything Herb did to what the company is today.
@@billpennock8585 That really sucks, I thought I had it bad with my $600/day Dollar rent a car and 14 hour drive home on Chistmas eve.
Here’s a tidbit for yah. Breeze was founded by aviation entrepreneur David Neeleman. He founded Morris Air. Morris air was sold to Southwest. After his noncompete clause expired, he founded JetBlue etc etc. the guy has founded 5 airlines over the last 30 years. He definitely has contacts at Southwest
Love breeze
Southwest is a low cost carrier if your airport has a non-stop to the destination. If no direct flights are available they can actually be more expensive than the big three.
It really depends on the priority SW puts on your regional airport.
Yep, but that’s almost always the case with these airlines
@@MentourNow interesting, I did not know that.
Yes, I've ridden Southwest a lot mostly because MHT to BWI is a useful route for me to visit family, and that's a big one for Southwest. Going west on them, you're likely to have to change planes at Chicago Midway, and they become less competitive.
I didnt know that
@@MattMcIrvinluckily I live in Chicago so it is my starting point. None of my family ever had anything but a direct flight. We use Southwest all the time.
Have they considered just upcycling? All you really need is an old lawnmower engine, a ceiling fan, a couple of deckchairs, and you're good to go.
😂😂
As someone who thinks about circular business models in his professional life, this comment had me fall of my chair for laughter. I cannot put to words how brilliant this comment is. I take my hat off for you, Mr. Cooke!
Naaw... Have you ever seen a guy yanking the wire to try to start the lawnmower? For hours? And then the wire breaks. No, they simply don't have that many lawnmower wires. I suggest the old automobile handle. Much easier yanking. cheers! / CS
Speaking of up and cycling, why not let the passengers pedal? I'm sure they will be highly motivated if you turn off the engine at the right altitude to save fuel.
Southwest also made a name for itself by flying from Dallas Love Field and Houston Hobby after DFW and Houston International opened. Both older fields were located close to downtown, which saved lots of travel time. For a long time, Southwest was the only airline flying from Love.
I am retired from health care administration. For about a decade our corporate office was about 10 min. from Love Field. I used to fly at least monthly from HOU/Hobby to Love Field, sometimes 3-4 times. That 45 min. in the air was perfect for prepping for meetings, perfect for drinking a cup of coffee and not fooling with meals or anything. And SW gave me, a nervous passenger, so much comfort knowing that their planes didn't crash. Those were just great days for me for business travel. If I couldn't catch SW I had to fly American on the MD-80 to DFW and it was a pain compared to Love--even though I also enjoyed flying on the MD-80 variants with that long, skinny fuselage. Best wishes from the Houston/Galveston area!
@@loveisall5520 I kinda liked MD-80'd as well, but not for any great reason as I never really researched them for safety or anything. I think i had two good flights in them, and decided that I liked and trusted MD-80's. ... Now, I've never had a good flight on a 737 Max, but that's because I won't even board such a plane/submarine/earth-borer.
Could always walk down to Brazil and buy all the 195 E2s (146 seats, no middle seats) they want. On top of that most of the pilots they would hire from the regionals would already by type rated on it.
Anything that would boost Embraer into the big league permanently can only be an improvement since there are only 1.5 big companies at this point.
I fly the 170/175 and typed on the 195. It's a sweet plane. Way more advanced than Boeing 737
@@gringoloco8576 yeah I flew the 175 for about 8.5 years and was a check airman on it for 6 of those. I fly the 737 now. I miss the Embraer.
@@vintagewoodshop2978 I'm sure you do. When I jump seat on the 737 it looks like a cluster mess. Ten times the button pushes to do anything it seems!
@@gringoloco8576the 737 is basically right in between the CRJ and the 175 in terms of automation. It’s fun to fly but it’s an old design philosophy and WN buys the cheapest and most basic version - WN 73’s lack a lot of the stuff other 73 operators have. 🤦♂️
Sooner or later, they're going to stop making 737s, and Southwest will have to take on a new type. The A220 family is a great candidate.
Two or three years ago there were plans to order A220s, but because they were afraid that Airbus would not be able to deliver enough, they ordered Max 7.
I doubt Southwest will buy Airbus. Their words have been intended to only get discounts from Boeing. The two companies are so intertwined it wouldn't make sense to switch.
@@allEyezOnDelphi Discounts aren't too important if there are no planes being manufactured that will be sold at those discounted prices.
@@VisibilityFoggy That is so true (26 year SWA employee PHX!)
It's time for current management to resign and have new blood seriously consider the A220 instead of using it as a negotiating ploy for Boeing. It may take 10 years for the Airbus decision to right the ship, but better to start now than kick the can down the road even more. Otherwise they may be better off doing hub and spoke with planes that are too big.
I don't think anything could make me lose faith in Southwest. I'm a devoted Southwest customer through and through. Costs are low (debatable, but i'd say that's more of a result of the current US economy), Saftey record is impeccable, Southwest staff is friendly, Pilots are professional, two free checked bags, and literally everything else. Southwest is perfect to me.
It is very impressive to have a low cost carrier with such a stellar safety record.
I found their recent grounding disaster fascinating from an optimisation point of view. They have become so tied to their quirky scheduling optimisation software which in turn relied on flow of staff through point to point routes that it effectively became hostage to the combination of the software and the routes being in operation to be able to be in operation.
As we saw it was very difficult for it to recover from a major disruption compared to other airlines.
@@michaelpillingnowthe SWA CEO ignored staff pleas to budget for needed software upgrades and capacity. The employees knew trouble was brewing
I seriously hope you are joking. As a major carrier southwest's pilot professionalism and safety record are the worst of the major US carriers.
@@gregorythompson5826 every SWA pilot ive talked to seems like a very serious man.
@@gregorythompson5826 Southwest Airlines has had a total of 2 hull losses in all of it's years of operation. Also that title easily goes to American 🤷♀
About 17:45 I had a massive OHHHHHHHHH moment about Breeze, that's definitely the right merger if there is going to be one. Especially as Jetblue shifts a large part of its focus to transatlantic routes and the ULCCs keep their larger planes. The only other way to get enough A220-300s (Which is clearly the right aircraft) would be to convince Jetblue or Delta to sell them, and I don't see that happening.
The A220 is a beautiful plane to fly. It's very comfortable, passenger friendly and has an exceptionally clean wing.
@@michaelpillingnow Which is why Boeing attempted to murder it.
I'm a little surprised that it wasn't mentioned that Southwest has had experience, even recent experience buying a competitor in part to get ahold of their fleet. I' m referring to the 2014 acquisition of Airtran which itself merged with struggling Valujet years earlier. In addition for Southwest getting ahold of some valuable gates and destinations that they didn't already have, Airtran has two aircraft types in their fleet: the Boeing 737-700 (perfect for Southwest) and the Boeing 717-200. The 717 was the last major design under development at McDonnell Douglas before the Boeing merger. The 717 was the most recent version of the DC-9 family, originally to be called the MD-95 before the merger.
So in 2014, Southwest made news in that they were going to try to operate with two fleet types, much like they had briefly done with the 727 decades earlier. But this flirtation with a second type would not last. Southwest wrote the book on operating one type and they eventually conceded that the benefits of one type outweighed any flexibility in operating the 717. And the 717 wasn't that popular among customers anyway and Boeing eventually discontinued it. Southwest's 717 fleet was sold off to Delta which was still flying DC-9 family planes (MD-88s and MD-90s) at the time.
So while Southwest may be flirting with the idea of taking on another fleet type to solve a short term problem, I think the they may be looking at Breeze to break into the EU market, much like the new destinations they got when they purchased Airtran.
Southwest sold off the 717s to Delta, which was happy to acquire them.
Two things that make Southwest my only airline of choice: No fee for the first 2 checked bags, and no additional fees for changing flights. If either of those go away then so do I. I have indeed noticed that on my last few flights with SW, there have been quite a few empty seats (which is nice for us passengers but not great for the airline).
Especially with Max 8 that have no business on some routes. Many routes need 737-7 but more of them. Don't believe the flight attendants when they say every seat will be taken.
@@flashoflight8160 Is the Max-8 really that much more expensive to operate over the -7?
We moved my son to college in Houston on Southwest. 4 people, and we used our carry-ons. The 8 boxes of stuff were our free "checked" bags. One SUV rental and we were good. Total cost was about $800. The return to move back from Houston was $1500 including car rental, gas, and fuel. And 3 days. That 2 free checked bags is a huge deal as well with my friends, as we all are musicians or do work as techs. Shipping gear for free is a big deal.
@@uzlonewolf The issue is the extra 7000 lbs and more wear and tear on everything. It's also about 20 million more. It all adds up to a lot of small losses in efficiency.
The 737 Max 8 is 90.5 tons max liftoff weight and 120 million. (The Max 7 was 100 milion) The A220 is 63.1 tons max liftoff weight and 90 million (average). The E195-2 is 69 tons max weight and 65 million (yes, almost half the cost). Slightly less efficient than the A220 due to the weight difference, but that price difference versus the Max 8 is also more than enough to cover the maintenance for the plane for its intended lifetime - to break even. As such , the 8 is just a big brick of a plane when they need smaller and more economical. Both of the smaller jets are also about 15-20% more fuel efficient, because the 737 Max 8 uses engines that put out a lot more thrust and are designed for a heavy plane. For freight or heavy loads, the Max 8 great. Kind of like having a SUV with a V8 that gets 20mpg vs a smaller one with a turbo 4 that gets 25mpg. But if you are only carrying 3 people all the time, it's just wasted potential.
@@uzlonewolf Not sure if he's referring to the same thing, but there's a ton of passengers still intentionally avoiding MAX-8 flights (plus some people avoiding all MAX or all Boeing models). It's not an insignificant percentage either, supposedly something like 50% of all passengers, impressive for what is effectively a massive uncoordinated public boycott. It's usually just people filtering out plane models on booking sites or with travel agents, so it's just not very loud.
I cannot imagine the chaos it would cause for crew scheduling if Southwest added a different Aircraft type into the mix!😳
Yeah remember the two meltdowns?
Easier to start a second airline…
Acquire an airline and keep it operating separately.
At least for the time being until better solutions are in place.
Well, quite a few won't be working on Max7 anyway 🤫
@@scottrattray127westjet has done that with the Q400, maybe southwest should do the same with the E195-E2?
I normally don't care for commentary as my favorite content to watch. I call them talking heads. But this guy is knowledgeable and does his homework.
You know that scene in "Catch me if you can" where Leo is boarding the jet while hiding in a decoy group of 60's style Pan Am flight attendants? This channel is roughly twice as cool as that. Maybe three times, I'd need to run the numbers.
Too bad that most of the exploits in that show were made up. No surprise, since they were made up by the guy that was known for lying about things. LOL
If they have to train pilots on a new aircraft type anyway, why not the Embraer E2? The world needs a third major aircraft manufacturer urgently.
I “think” it has something to do with pilot union contracts and the amount of seats a plane must have.
I don't know much about the industry, but is Embraer even capable of delivering dozens of those E2s per year?
I don’t think southwest will leave Boeing. They will operate the 737 until Boeing comes out with its next narrow body. I would assume they will build it with southwest in mind. Southwest is literally Boeings largest narrow body customer.
The problem is getting enough of the same type at the same time so that they still have fleet scheduling flexibility. Embraer isn’t likely to be able to do that.
Everyone wants those 195s but they are also in super high demand. SW needs to find an airline somewhere in the world that has a bunch of them and either swap fleets or buy them out. Running a plane The A220 is actually slightly less optimal due to it being about the same cost per passenger as the Max 7, and their flights are now closer to 120-125 on average. Adding an extra flight or two on heavy routes isn't a big deal - they use the Max 8s for those, but say, a flight from Houston to Dallas maxes no sense when it's half full and the plane has these big engines.
Southwest was limited to Texas and adjoining states by the Wright amendment, which was put in place to protect DFW. Being a start up, that may have worked to Southwest's benefit. But, if you wanted to fly beyond that limit you had to have a plane change.
I really enjoy ALL your videos. I currently work for Spirit Aerosystems and I don’t have to tell you about all the quality issues that is public and some are internal. I think private/ regional aviation is going to pick up. That being said could you cover private jets like Cessna/Beech Gulfstream. Etc. Thank you for all your excellent content!! Dennis
Today if a CEO challenged someone to an arm wrestling contest it would be in the space industry
Ahhh space... The final frontier (if you're a billionaire)
Though the arm isn't really the first bit of anatomy that comes to mind, is it, that these CEOs you're thinking of would want to compare.
I like this history of Southwest.
Thank you! I’m glad to hear that
@@MentourNow
I love Southwest and the carnival seating.
Nice presentation.
There's a book that was written about Southwest. It's called "Nuts" and it's a great read.
it's funny how southwest went from being a boeing's client, to be a serious variable on boeing's financial business; the airline has always been used as an example on bussiness managment when it comes to low cost operations (because of having all the same aircrafts), so its this change will be very interesting !!! great job as always
While putting all your eggs in one basket may be great from an efficiency standpoint, it also leaves you with a single point of failure... it's a shot of "dumb idea" with a "bad plan" chaser...
The plural of aircraft is aircraft, not aircrafts.
@@davemiller6055 it's so funny the way i don't remember asking. it gets complicated when you don't have english as your first language so... yeah, thanks for the feedback tho
About 1965 I flew on PSA, Pacific Southwest Airline, from San Francisco to LA for about $12. They lined up their used airplanes on the tarmac and we walked out to them . Planes were filled one after another. Basically a bus line operation with cheap airplanes that had been refurbished. They only flew within CA.
I have fond memories of flying on PSA's fuel-guzzling 727's...
Petter, that was the best transition to a sponsor I've ever seen!! :D
I agree, that transition to the sponsor was great. Maybe at times Petter can try that again to keep his members on their toes. Good job!
@@camillejohnson7035 tripple dip mentour
“Low factor”?
It would be wild to see Southwest flying Airbus. Did they not play a role in how the bodged certification of the MAX and MCAS happened anyway, with regards to keeping MCAS out of type rating?
Sort of. There was talk that Southwest had a clause in their contract for the new planes, that Boeing would compensate them if the MAX required training in the sim. This clause drew a lot of criticism, and rightly so, but I'm not sure Southwest were the only ones to have it...
In the nut shell:Souhtwest needs smaller point to point aircrafts because its portion of fleet of smaller aircrafts is getting old(19y) and shrinking too. They can buy Breeze which happens to have 90 much more efficient and fresh Airbus A220-300s. At the same time SW would diversify by making a future proof move (by paying little more for daily logistics) to have access to two manufacturers.
Another words, more consequences from Boeing screw ups
Basically yes
Yeah, but their cost savings measures are really kicking in.🤪
Indeed. I think BCA is in a death spiral
@@MetalTeamster yeah Sounds like a Plane stall with a T-Tail plane.
@@cennsa140driverThey really are slowly getting there. I mean, in getting the company to the grave just like in the 90s.
I used to chaperone youth band and we flew with SWA quite often. Loved their 2 free checked luggage as we all have instruments to carry on or check, and no reserved seat came in super handy for shuffle around seating for the kids.
It's crazy to think that the 737-600NG, which was actually a bit longer than the original 737-100, was considered so short by the 1990s that it became a niche variant with only a few dozen ordered. Then they dropped that original size completely from the MAX and they might even be dropping the next size up. Just goes to show how much the 737 changed from its original intended role as a smaller-capacity go-anywhere regional airliner.
I’ve always wondered how much Southwest’s devotion to the 737 and fleet uniformity contributed to Boeing’s decision not to develop a completely new aircraft. Boeing’s disastrous business practices were the key driver, but having a huge and growing customer demanding continuity would bolster a flawed argument to eschew innovation in favor of milking an obsolete model for another decade or two. In this case, it seems both Boeing and Southwest are now paying dearly for a lack of vision justified at least in part by codependence.
The wishes of a really big customer are really important, but shouldn't really influence your business strategy for the next 2-3 decades... but who knows.
You just articulated so much of what I wanted to say. Short-sighted thinking that resulted in harming both companies...aka chickens coming home to roost. Although unfortunately there's still no true accountability for the lives which were lost.
Risk management is critical to any business. One known risk is that technology will age out. When and in what ways are the tough parts of the equation. The Max series seems mainly to be an attempt to kick that can down the road. With competing options already on the market, those risk questions were already answered to some extent for Boeing and Southwest before the Max was announced. Often there’s no perfect solution to manage those risks, but it seems that shorter term benefits were chosen over long-term potential in this situation.
The difference is in all likelihood, Boeing would survive thanks to a government bailout, but Southwest would just collapse. Honestly, the days for Ryanair and Southwest to exclusively use one model of aircraft might well be over the longer this nonsense with Boeing drags on.
The book 'Nuts' about Southwest is a really good read!
Super video, concisely explaining the low cost airline market thoughts!
Liked to watch it and actually learned some new specifics👍
Thank you.
Thank you for the videos Mentour Pilot! I really do not enjoy flying but watching your videos shows how many options good pilots have when things go wrong.
Glad you like them!
The 2020 talks were never serious, they were held to satisfy the boards due diligence requirements
You underemphasized a few of SWA's major differentiators. Near their beginning, they chose airports less traveled and with less expensive fees. In the 90s, they negotiated a long-term fuel contract that paid off as the market price rose. They also regularly brought air traffic controllers trays of food, so they could get better placement in queues for takeoff. Pilots regularly assisted maintenance crews cleaning out trash after flights to get jets back in the air (the benefits of not being union). Other carriers could not compete and lost ridership.
I will always choose Southwest over the Big Three if I have a choice. I've never felt like the "benefits" justify the premium charged and I almost always feel like the value just isn't there. Conversely, with Southwest, I always get what I pay for.
Very interesting! What a big fleet of Southwest,
Just flew on Southwest on their 737-700 which was lottery falling apart. Their back is against the wall as they don’t want to put money into them other than keeping them safe to fly but seats, trims, bathrooms etc are shot and need to be replaced.
They’re getting rid of 20-ish of them very soon. I’ve flown on 4 of them recently and they were fine. Dated, but fine.
UA’s A320 family are also falling apart.
It’s just what you get when you have a 20+ year airplane.
@@vitaly6312 The one’s I flew on the seats were in disrepair, trim falling off, overhead bins sticking, bathrooms needed new interior parts, etc. The flight crew said the specific 737-700 I was on was to be replaced years ago by the Boeing 737-700 max and is going to be pulled out of service soon being replaced by either better condition 737-700 or a new 737-800 max.
The 737max program is a nightmare for Southwest and others.
@@vitaly6312 Delta has some old and ratty 737s and A320s.
At what point does having an extra aircraft type become relatively insignificant in terms of all the disadvantages? Breeze has 90 A220s on order, but that surely is too small a number to not incur a lot of extra cost. But would, say, 200 become economically viable?
If Southwest bought Breeze, an extra order for many more A220s would be inevitable, given that hundreds of 737 MAX-7 orders would be cancelled. Those 90 planes (once they all arrive) would only be the start.
@@MentourNow But how long would it take to get them? Mainline Airbus is 6-7 year wait.
@@k53847 Southwest already spent 5 years on their ass after the two Max crashes. They need to act now and wait out the 6-7 years.
many thanks so captivating and thought provoking :) love your work bro
Can Southwest buy Air Canada so us Canadians finally get some relief from crazy seat prices. 😂😂
Vote that wacky government out 😂
But WestJet just invented a sweet new discount fare for you guys! 😆
@@matthewhall5571 I'd rather take Air Canada at this point than WestJet
Air Canada is awful 😣 always delayed and $$.
@@Doryz99 so true! my experiences with WestJet tho… oof. between the food poisoning (do NOT try their 5 cheese pizza if they’re still offering it), the $$, the booting of passengers, the insane delays and then cancellations (not from weather!)… I do not care for them
There is an aspect of the Boeing crisis that doesn’t seem to be mentioned often. That is the publics willingness to fly on Boeing aircraft.
The general public still doesn't really care. There is a small percentage of people that look online to see what kind of airplane will be flying on, but that is definitely not most people.
Perhaps if all the news media would stop emphasizing that it was a Boeing plane and start emphasizing the name of the airline since almost all issues arise from poor or faulty maintenance by the airline. The Alaska Airlines door issue was truly Boeing's fault, but not much else. The two Max crashes were caused in part by airlines not advising pilots of a potential issue incurred by pilots on a prior flight (Indonesia) and by a cowboy pilot who flew too low and fast over the airport after takeoff (Ethiopia).
I fly on Southwest a lot. the planes are full every time. I also fly Delta and that is at least 50% on 737's. Those planes are also full. The number of people who care is very small. And by the way, I've never had a problem on those planes. (Both the NG and the MAX).
Most people don't care. Even those who vow not to fly Boeing are only doing so to score popularity points, even if they don't get recognition for it.
Nice try, COMAC
1:01 smoking while doing curls 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Mentour, this turned out to be a very educational and good video. Thank you. Subscribed for the better over-view, kind of like the videos from Sal with his shipping channel.
Excellent summary. And, I think pretty accurate analysis. It will be interesting to see how it all falls out. I am 81 now, but I was with several star-ups in the 70s and 80s. I always admired Herb K and Southwest. The numerous advantages to a single fleet type are tremendous.
Counterpoint: even the 220s will not be enough to fully rejuvenate the fleet, so the Max-7s still have fighting chance. But this will only work if two conditions are met:
Condition 1: Instead of reducing the number of lines (which they currently are only doing because fleet limitations force them to), they double down on this growth strategy and work to keep the profitable new lines up and find other potential new lines to operate.
Condition 2: Boeing is able to guarantee a stream of Max-7s and commits to providing these faster than Airbus would in providing additional 220s. (If Airbus is planning ahead and help SW grow their 220 fleet, that'll really be the final blow for the Max-7!)
16:57 it is "Load Factor", not "Low Factor" as written.
The MAX 7 was supposed to be a star but the MAX 8 failed it
Well, the MAX7 was never going to be a big-seller.. but if Southwest ditches it, it’s likely toast
Didn't boeing stretched the MAX7 so Southwest could fit 150 seats into the cabin?
BOEING has been shit last 10 years . Who will buy them in their right mind @MentourNow
What a mess Boeing has made for themselves. Over the last few years, they have managed to erode decades of trust in this single platform, and having hung so much of their corporate identity on it, trust in their capabilities as a manufacturer overall. Given the issues we've seen with the 787, and even outside of aircraft with the Starliner, it may be time for a very public corporate pivot for Boeing.
Personally, I think they should close the order books on the 737, and develop a new aircraft in the same class, but with that drop the 7x7 naming convention entirely. They have a terribly tarnished reputation, and only through a very public showing of closing that chapter and starting a new one will they be able to win back public confidence.
I'd go further and say that the name "Boeing", as a sound, never really inspired confidence as it is. Keep the brand, but pivot to making pogo-sticks.
@@frankcooke1692McDonnel-Douglas would be much more relevant!
Boeing has today no money to create a successor of the 737 now, not the time and probably also not the workforce to do it. Boeing depends today on its 737MAX-Program. If it fails Boeing is finished. It´s as simple as that.
But really, couldn't the Europeans come up with a better name than Airbus?
@@frankcooke1692 At least pogosticks would mean that they could always jump-start the aircraft... cheers! / CS
I think it makes total sense for Southwest to get the C Series / A220. Boeing is not going to be able to meet their production targets for years at this point, and the A220 program is well-established and has multiple assembly plants if production ramp-up is needed. And if the A220-500 / A221 gets made, Southwest could replace their old -800s with it.
Ramp up is currently and issue with the C series and costs to manufacture. It is a lovely plane and once Pratt finally fully sorts out their issues with the GTF (none of which seem to do with the gearbox), this will be the perfect plane. Bombardier did do a nice job on their final large aircraft type. Knocked it out of the park. I am glad Airbus seems to recognize that. If bombardier hadn’t been dealing with many rail project issues during this time perhaps they may have been able to ramp up without getting to the brink. Certainly aren’t having the problems Boeing are on build quality either.
As a Canadian I'd like to thank you for remembering it's called a C Series. I did not hand a billion dollars of my tax money to a beautiful flagship technology development program for it to be called an Airbus.
What about the airbus A320
@@skylarpedersen1 they are looking for something smaller than the a320. C series /a220 fit the bill.
I would love if Southwest bought Avelo. They have an all -700 and -800 fleet and have gates at airports that Southwest doesn't serve (like the airport near me). But Avelo's fleet is also fairly old.
A lot of Avelo's 737s are ex-Southwest planes, if I remember right.
Seems to be a well-run operation so far. The airport in New Haven, CT, they serve has a 5,600 foot runway, with a hill at the end of it. I have flown out of there, but that is cutting it close. Just sayin...I like big airports and big planes.
@@johnharvey7913 The only time I ever flew to New Haven was on a Dash-8, which had no problems with the short runway. But I understand their facilities have been upgraded significantly in the past 20 years.
Watching your videos reminds me of playing the Train Simulator, memories of pressing the deadman switch every 30 seconds when the ad comes up
Great video as always!
You should think about covering airshows and their results, like what orders wete placed and their effects.
Buying Breeze sounds good in terms of fleet but challenging in terms of combining SWA's ancient route planning software with anything more modern. That seems like where the investment should be
**G-R-E-A-T** presentation Peeter. Good solid information, and clear explanation of the Econ101 of airlines. A nice set of source material references for the CZcamss. I also appreciate your mention of my San Diego late airline Pacific Southwest Airlines.
Peter, You explain things so clearly and beautifully.
I absolutely love ❤️💙💛!
A-List Member 6 years in a row.
same ive had my companion pass for years now. fly them everyweek, got off a southwest jet today and will be on another tomorrow.
One alternative to a fleet shortage is to 'wet lease', complete with crew. Could buying another airline be considered as a cheaper version of that model?
The two airlines could be run separately initially, as the Lufthansa group do, with non-flying functions then being the first to merge. There is nothing stopping the liveries being the same!
The 737 fleet could be run down as the A220 fleet was expanded, until ultimately the 737 side of the business no longer existed.
To work for Southwest, I would have thought that not only would they need some guarantee of volume from Airbus, but a commitment to a further stretch or stretches of the A220.
Regardless of what happens, in another decade or two, any major 737 operator is going to have to start replacing their 737s with aircraft with different type ratings to the 737. Whether this is a brand-new Boeing 737 replacement, or something from another manufacturer will have to be seen. One thing probably for sure, is that the out of grandfather rights 737 will start to die as soon as a narrowbody with the next generation of engines is released.
Buying another airline, might just be the least painful way of managing that transition.
Key point here: Current Pilot contract prohibits any aircraft flying a Southwest livery (or with any SWA markings, for that matter) being flown by other than SWA pilots.
@@Avi727 I am sure that the lawyers will get around that with a simple renaming of the company taken over and a little negotiating.
Such a clever way of integrating the ad. I even nearly decided to watch it!
I have always loved Southwest. The two free bags, good comfort, and friendly staff. Plus I was a 737 fanboy growing up.
It sucks to see Southwest struggling in part thanks to Boeings ineptitude but It would be cool to see if/how Boeing would handle a merge or switching their fleet to a new type.
Watching the early 90’s clips, I so miss when our society had a sense of humor and everyone wasn’t offended by everything. 🇺🇸
The "power behind the throne" is all about being the biggest victim.
"To learn who rules over your, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticise".
You mean, before we had the internet and this problem because obvious.
@@debrascott8775when i hear people pine for the old days i’m pretty sure it means i miss when white men could shit on women, minorities, and gays without fear of consequences.
@@Kantoblight you're completely right
@@Kantoblight"Without fear of consequences" ... And what should be the consequences if they have an opinion different from yours?
What about the embraer E2 ? Wouldn't it also perfectly fit the small seating requirements ?
In theory yes... but if Embraer takes until 2027 to deliver a good quantity of E195-E2s to Southwest, it might not be worth it. I'm not sure that there is an airline with a good amount of E195-E2s that Southwest could by now, but maybe I'm wrong!
There are airlines who opted for E2's to fly to Schiphol because the Netherlands are a tremendously densely populated country and the (relative) low noise of the E2's are helpful with landing rights (if you make less noise per flight, you're allowed to fly more). So the E2's are pretty good. Thing is availability and time. Given the manner in which Boeing screwed up, Airbus being booked full by ex-Boeing customers... if you want new it's hard to get new. I wonder how full Embraer are. Hope they are doing well.
@@MentourNow I am on camp Embraer too. What about an airline with an E-jet family and with plans to switch to E2? i like the diversity and i think you need the pilot pool for growth as well.
@@MentourNow Porter has bunch of them already
@@FrancisFjordCupola Airbus is indeed booked out for years - not so much with its A 220-Program, but this has meanwhile a huge backlog, too. Embraer in the opposite must be happy about every new customer for its E2-Program because the E2-Jets are really selling slowly and far behind what was expected. The largest Aircraft Embraer could offer - the E195E-2 - has usually 132 seats at maximum - that is eleven seats fewer than the expected 737 MAX 7 but only 5 seats fewer than the A 220-300. But the A 220-300 has a much longer range than the E195-E2.
Tough call. The cost of another airline plus the costs of setting up new crew training (pilots and F.As) maintenance training, inventory and a whole slew of other costs versus the cost of flying larger planes while they (SWA) wait on Boeing to get their act together. Guess that's what bean counters are for.
It saddens, me as a former B757 and B767 pilot, that the company that developed and built them, and all of their fabled predecessors has fallen on such dismal times...much of it self-induced.
Wow, what a fantastic analysis on Southwest which no American would dare to do publicly!
As always, very well done. Nothing is as simple as it may appear at first glance. One thing I wonder about is why the 737 Max is still a popular airplane. I flew on one from LA to ORD last week--completely full flight. As you may have assumed, since I am writing this comment, I survived the flight. But I am puzzled because the gemeral public still appears to be comfortable flying on that airplane spite of the horror stories about it's design and Boeing's failure to make product safety a number one priority. I remember years ago, when the DC-10 had a similar series of problems, the public largely refused to fly on that plane; DC-10s were fairly quickly removed from service and production was halted. What has changed from that time to today, when we just keep flying the 737 Max?
During the DC10 days, people take the word of the press for granted. Nowadays, the press is going too far that some people are starting to see through their sensationalism. For example, the press blamed Boeing for a ground collision in ORD, but there is no reasonable way Boeing could be at fault for a ground collision and the lack of logic shown by the press is as clear as day
I think there's very little to replace the 737 with anyways. During the DC-10's time there was the 747, 767, A300/310, L-1011 all vying for different segments of the wide body market at the same time. And when the FAA allowed over water routes for twin engines combined with the oil crisis, the era of trijets was starting to end.
With the 737 there's it and the A320 family. There's some competition from Russia and China, but good luck having one as a European or American airline. Then there's issues with Airbus in between order backlog, production throughput, and sort of going for alternative engine options at the same time.
Despite Boeing's troubles, it's still the case that flying commercial is far safer than it was then, and I think on some subliminal level most people know that. When I was a kid, flying commercial was already statistically the safest way to travel, and we were often reminded of that, but the reminders were there because it didn't *feel* like it: you'd hear about a plane going down with large numbers of fatalities maybe once or twice a year in the US alone. That doesn't happen today. The fatality rate from commercial aviation is far, far lower than it was in the 1970s even in absolute numbers, though volume is higher.
If the seats are not allocated at boarding, how do they know who got sucked out the window when a rapid decompression occurs?
Welcome aboard the 737 MAX! Be sure to count your family members before and after the flight to ensure no one has plunged 30,000 feet out of the aircraft. Fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the ride!
@14:52 Hey, That's the Alberni valley airport on Vancouver Island, I used to fly gliders there.
Interesting theories and well presented content for someone on the outside of SWA.
Most of the video I cannot comment on. I will say you mentioned the “turn”. A good investment has been made to improve that time. If you fly from Love field you will see the new RID’s (Ramp Information Displays). They are being constructed in MDW, BWI and DEN as well (permits are difficult). This will allow to turn those planes faster and gain additional legs, helping the capacity issue some. This is only one project of several aimed at improving efficiency the Southwest way.
SMOOOOTH😆😆😎😎🔥🔥- I love how u integrated the commercial break
How much more money is the MAX 8 to buy over the MAX 7, and how much more fuel does MAX 8 burn?
Like would Beoing be able to discount MAX 8 enough for Southwest so that the CASM is the same after 5 years, but you get the bonus of 30 seats each flight
That’s actually a great question.
True. Especially when Boeing has no bargaining power at this point and cannot afford to lose market share.
I’m actually flying southwest on the 10th and 15th of July this year and I’m so excited
Breeze flys the the regional airport by my house so I see a breeze A220-300 all the time
Excellent, Petter; I was hoping you’d discuss Southwest ever since I saw an CNN article that said an ‘activist investor’ (Elliot Investments) was planning to take a 1.9 billion investment in Southwest because ‘a change in management is needed’
Southwest has been a favorite of many US budget-conscious flyers, but a lot of tears in their operations have become very visible
Isn’t southwest one of the primary reasons Boeing stuck with the 737 to begin with rather than a clean sheet design? The irony
Two airlines influenced Boeing to stick with the 737. Southwest is one of them, but the airline that tipped the scale was AA. If Boeing made a clean sheet, Boeing could have told Southwest to phase out 737s and get used to the new type, and Southwest telling Boeing they want a re-engined 737 wasn’t as public. But now we have AA, who publicly stated that they want a re-engined version of a plane that they’re used to. Since AA has been a fairly big legacy carrier, they could potentially influence a multitude of other 737 users at the time like Continental/United and Delta to start thinking that way. This is what most likely tipped Boeing over to the 737 MAX.
@@Blank00 appreciate the background!
I'd like to see a video discussing whether both American and Southwest deserve some of the blame for Boeing's woes.
@@flashoflight8160 Mentour Now did make a video about that a month ago, though that video was more about facts, not opinions.
Jet Blue also has the A220-300 and just committed to more and has routes SWA wants. Breeze only has aircraft.
JB can't compete with SW as they have the same model as the Big3, SW will be just fine...
Breeze has a different business model. They connect smaller cities where there is an underserved need. Great airline, but not quite what southwest has going.
@@ImionsaeXwb77 JB has south American, Caribbean and Northeast routes that Southwest has been wanting for some time. JB wants Southwests and Spirits west coast presence. Hence why JB attempted to buy Spirit for slots and aircraft. If SWA went for JB, the most financially smart thing to do would be to keep the A321 and orders and A220 and orders and sell off the entire A320 fleet. By that time the entire Embraer fleet would have been retired. The A220-300 would take the MAX 7 routes and the A321 would extend SWA's reach into new markets.
@@antonyh37 I'm stating that JB is not a LCC airline, if SW took over JB they would need to either keep JB model or switch them to SW model, if they go over to JB model they're in some stiff competition with the big 3..
Or swap the A320s to Alaska for their 737s....
To a professional mariner, ULCC stands for Ultra Large Crude Carrier, in other words, a really big ship, usually a tanker, but sometimes a a dry bulker.
Thanks, you bring up an excellent point. Southwest is facing a similar problem to what Boeing botched so badly, which is what to fly _after the 737._ As you note, the popular, efficient, and in-production A-220 would be a great choice. But how can Southwest change over without damaging the economy of scale it has from flying one design? Dribbling A-220s into their inventory one at a time would be wasteful. Buying out Breeze would solve that problem. Following the merger, they'd already have a substantial fleet of A-220s along with pilots, attendants, and ground crew familiar with them.
I am old enough to remember the deregulation of our American aircraft industry. I'd sure enjoy seeing a Mentour analysis of where we might be in the US and abroad today had we remained with the old CAB and strict regulations from the seventies and before. Best wishes from Texas! And yes, I definitely remember the early SW here in Texas (I live near HOU) and the Braniff Airlines, and also the SW days under Herb Kelleher.
Yes agree old enough as well, October 24th, 1978 was the date. I remember Braniff International "colour, flair, style and more". Same with Western Airlines, Hughes Airwest, TWA, Pan Am and many more now gone. Air travel was a pleasure with quality. Today in 2024 air travel is a bus with wings. I never supported deregulation. As an Australian we lost Ansett Airlines of Australia 1936-2002. Bonza lasted 2023-2024!
Ansett 727.
@@ansett7272 There is such a fine line that local carriers tread between what customers will, and will not, stand for. Those photos of new SW seats are creepy, they look so uncomfortable. I can remember when part of their seats were covered in leather! Fortunately for me, I'm pushing seventy and don't have to fly anymore, and haven't in a decade. My preference here in the US was always to travel by car, even in my working days traveling the American South in rented Cadillacs or my company car. I would love to visit your beautiful country sometime. Your 'outback' reminds me of parts of our American West. Best wishes from the Houston area, the fourth largest city in the US, on the Texas Gulf Coast.
@@loveisall5520 Thanks for your comments not far off your age as well! Visiting your country many times has been great and flying America West Airlines in 1998 Boeing 737-277 an ex Ansett AN on board with America West Airlines HP from LAX to LAS was unique! Having flying the same aircraft in Australia domestic earlier and later on in the USA! WOW ! HP has gone 1983-2007. I still have their in flight magazine in my collection. Same as you I don't fly any more as my last flight was with Qantas domestic B737 in 2013.
Ansett-ANA Douglas DC-6B pistons radial engines were pounding away from Adelaide West Beach Airport. Love the Sound back in the days!
Ansett 727.
Flying would probably be much more expensive and lower in volume. That might be better for the environment (though those regs weren't for the environment, but to keep the industry stable). But not so good for air travel for the masses.
@@MattMcIrvin Yes I agree as Australia had the Two Airlines Policy from late 1940's until airline deregulation 1990 domestic. TAA TN Trans-Australia Airlines and AN Ansett Airlines of Australia. Same stable fare structure but competition was on service they provided. Not for the masses with high fare structure but quality service. Miss those days! Qantas was our international flag carrier at the time.
Ansett 727.
And the sad thing is, the MAX 7 only exists because Southwest wanted it. Ditching the MAX 7 now would be a huge insult to Boeing..given the arm twisting Southwest applied to Boeing in the first place.
Boeing made its own bed with the Max saga. Had they not 'screwed the pooch' out of corporate greed the max fleet would already be in service
@josh3771 , the MAX8 and 9 fleets are already in service. The 7 and 10s are still waiting certification..and that's mainly waiting on the redesign of the engine inlet cowling.
@@toms1348 Had Boeing not been incompetent the 7 and 10 would have been certified by now. They did this to themselves.
Great stuff Petter. Herb Keller was a gem! He made it possible for the “everyday” person to fly affordably.
That was a very smooth transition into the promotion 😏, I thought Boeing was cease and deceasing you 😆
God damn man, i was thinking of buying some BA and now you just rained on my parade 😅
Certainly a convincing argument of delaying that like the 737 7 Max…
I know this is recent news, but I was wondering if this was going to be about Southwest's Dutch Roll and 4,000 ft / min descent to 400 ft above the waves. I am wondering abt flying any Boeing, esp their Max disasters.
I think I will wait at least for the interim reports, before commenting on these.
Fascinating story. Thank you!
Wow, great analysis! Love this!
Glad you enjoyed it!
I came here from your community post.
It's funny to see Southwest Airlines see how it feels to deal with delays
Another great video about the airline industry and Southwest. Petter only showed one hint about his employer in the 737 Max-10 photo, not that it is a secret but Ryanair is the other very large low cost airline.
I was surprised to see a typo left in the published version when it had text explaining about the “load factor”, but spelled it “low factor”. Unless that was a subtle joke about the way Petter pronounced “load” without much “d”.
Good info on the industry
cover airline bonza in australia- went belly up
The problem of Bonza is routes, this isn´t for 737 or A320, but Embrae E190 or Airbus A220 (maximum), The Bonza Load Factor is too low with 737.
The thumbnail for this video is pretty hilarious.
You beat me to it but no denying the thumbnail is hilarious imagine if a boeing employee sees it
what do you mean?
Well I did think it was a missed opportunity for a slasher movie inspired image of a hand holding up a knife to the 737-7.
@@iWebPro_Officialmaybe they are seeing a different thumbnail based on their region. It looks like an airplane and a sentence above it with the question mark.
@@mediocreman2 yeah same. maybe.
Southwest buying Breeze makes so much sense, I'm just surprised that it hasn't actually happened yet
They could assign seats to overcome problems with their open seating concept and offer a premium cabin. That would be one way to put fewer seats on the max-8 and increase margins. Underlying these changes could be the same efficient operations as usual.
I think it has been definitively proven over the last 10 years that Boeing as a company is destined for full chapter 7. Will they die, no probably not but I believe their days as a plane manufacturer is coming to a close. They will survive as a contractor for military and space development perhaps even as a skunk works for other brands but they have consistently demonstrated for decades now that their approach to commercial aviation is not capable of competing with other brands, especially Airbus.
Then all we'd have is Airbus...with a complete monopoly. Comac isn't even a consideration anywhere outside China, or Russia. If you're correct expect fares to double...as Airbus will be able to gouge airlines with whatever prices they want.
It's too big to die. The government bailed out Chrysler, not once, but twice, because they were too big to fail. They will do the same with Boeing.
@@toms1348 True. That's the consequences of stupidity and greed.
You don't think it will be saved by Uncle Sam?
Boeing will be bailed out by the federal government, there's absolutely no doubt about it. Is it right? Well probably not, but there's approximately zero chance that they go through bankruptcy
The 737 belongs in a museum
I live in Chicago and the Southwest hub at Midway is about a half hour away. We like Southwest. My sister just got an unbelievably cheap round trip fare to Arizona and back to Midway Chicago...super cheap! I think it was the Southwest birthday deals.
Fascinating information👍
BOEING
Bosses
Only
Evaluate
Interests in
Negotiating for
Gross-profits
I know RyanAir have a huge 737 fleet
Ryanair also have some Airbus in the fleet, following the takeover of Lauda Air. O'Leary has said he would happily buy Airbus if he could get them.
@@connclissmann6514 Indee. But nowadays Ryanair itself, Malta Air, Buzz and Ryanair UK are operating together 566 737s while Lauda Europe is operating 27 A 320.
Keep an eye out for 1 or 2 737s that Southwest always keeps with the old "desert gold" livery. I saw one before the pandemic flying out of OAK.