Magic Formula Investing | 30% Returns | Magic Formula Stock Screener for India | Joel Greenblatt
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Magic formula investing is a rules-based investing strategy that helps everyday investors identify undervalued companies. It was conceived by hedge fund manager, Joel Greenblatt who first published it in his book: The Little Book That Beat the Market. Joel Greenblatt claims the magic formula stock screen to have delivered annualized returns of over 30% consistently. In this video, I shall apply the magic formula investing strategy on Indian stocks and present the top 30 stocks that comply with this stock screening model
👉 Please access the worksheet mentioned in the video by clicking this link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
👉 Some Useful Resources & Readings:
‣ The Little Book That Beat the Market (book link): amzn.to/3lSpz6p
‣ Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (book link): amzn.to/3GSiddj
‣ Ahmed Madha’s article on Financial Tales: financialtales.home.blog/2020...
‣ Back-testing Magic Formula on Indian Stocks (paper) : papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...
‣ Critical look at Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula:
reasonabledeviations.com/2020...
‣ Magic Formula Stock List for 2019: www.capitalmind.in/2019/02/th...
‣ Where to find Shankar Nath? bio.link/shankarnath
👉 Video Chapters:
00:00 Boarding the Hogwarts Express
01:18 Concept of Magic Formula Investing
04:27 9 Steps to Building the Strategy
09:52 Performance of Magic Formula in Indian Stock Market
12:08 Top 30 Indian Stocks
12:40 Limitations that need to be Plugged
15:21 Shankar's Viewpoint
#magicformula #joelgreenblatt #beststocks
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor or research analyst. The content posted on this platform is purely for educational purposes and none of it constitutes investing or trading advice. Viewers should do their own research and diligence before investing or acting on the information presented
Love your content, keep posting. You are the best in this space imo. I hope your channel becomes a multibagger and hits 1Mil subs someday.
Thank you very much, Praneeth for your kind appreciation and gratuity. CZcams is a wonderful outlet for my three interests i.e. teaching, investing and creativity .. and I'm happy to know it is adding even more value in the lives of viewers & helping them understand investing better.
Seriously appreciate the fact that you spelled it out very clearly that simply trusting a small case or screener wouldn't do justice to this formula
Hello Vivek - that's my view of the world and I am glad you agree to it. Ofcourse, others might feel differently e.g. many of Indian quant funds are rules based. Even the Nifty 50 is a rules-based screener (size + free float + F&O etc.). I tend to err on the side of caution and hence, I use the screener as an important input but not a definitive output
Fan of your thumbnails
Thanks for the support!
its above my head, but i watch it again and again to understand, thank you so much.
Most welcome. Just like everything else .. practice makes perfect
Wow. Thank you for this well researched video sir and backing every statement with historical data. Your videos are really helpful 🙏
You are most welcome
Magically explained!! Love your work
Thank you so much!
Lovely video, wonderfully explained whole book in few minutes. Please keep posting such videos... Kudos..
Thank you
Truly setting standards in financial literacy with your videos Shankar! Keep em coming 🙂
Thanks a ton
Hello sir, great content & thumbnail as always 🎉, keep growing consistently, we r there to support u
Good to see u uploading ur vdo with timestamps, pls continue to add that in all ur upcmg vdos for more clarity! 🌟
Thank you very much for your kind appreciation. I'm happy these videos are helping you improve your own investing approach. My aim is to give viewers 2-3 pieces of useful information that sits in our brains .. and when a real-life situation comes along, we can remember the lessons, risks & opportunities from these videos and apply it. Hope I am on that track
Quality content is delivered everytime. Thank you ❤️😊
You're so welcome! Appreciate the comment
As usual quiet an insightful video. Each of your videos, if well understood and implemented are life changing strategies. Kudos for breaking things down in a pragmatic way and teaching us to fish!!!
Glad you like them, Paul! Appreciate your kind words
Thank you so much for posting such good content and detailed analysis of such amazing concepts,documentation and books.
So nice of you. Thank you very much!
You channel though new, is right up there in terms of quality of content 👏, hope you continue the great work
Thanks. I appreciate that!
This will be one of the best and highest subscribed finance channel for serious investors
Glad you are enjoying the content and finding it useful, Siddharth
Sir, thanks for a very insightful video, and for linking the references as well. I think will be revisiting this video a few times.
Thanks Varun. Please check out the worksheet aswell, you'll find it useful
all your vedios are worthy of adding to my playlists
Thank you! I'm glad you like them
Ur thumbnails are epic!
Truly appreciate your content. You have taken CZcams stockmarket Videos to another level. Keep up the spirit and sure you will be one of the top youtubers in India, very soon 👏👏
Thank you for your kind wishes and appreciation, S M S
sir your videos provide some REAL value. some concrete education that can be actioned upon. Appreciate it and I just can't help but rewatch your videos. Your videos are like school books which we have to study again and again, except that we actually like studying your videos.
I appreciate that! Happy to know my content is playing a small part in your financial education
Sharing knowledge is a very valuable thought. Kindly continue the Good work going 👍
Thanks a lot
As usual catchy thumbnail with informative content 🙏🙏
Glad you liked it. Thx Manjunath
SHEER BRILLIANCE. THANK YOU SHANKAR SIR for doing a lot of research for us. I wish the best for you.
Thank you Dheeraj, glad you found the video useful
Great, detailed quality video.
Thank you Sriram, glad you liked it
Very good information... thanks for your valuable time for very deep insight about the magic formula 😊
My pleasure 😊 Glad you found it useful.
Shankar Nath - hands down the best FinFluencer - He IS THE VERY BEST - What an outstanding video - his clarity is brilliant!
Thank you for your kind appreciation and vote of confidence, Sridhar. Well, I'll prefer a finance educator tag afterall the only thing I am trying to influence is for investors to learn real finance & investing :)
Excellent material. Thanks sir
You are most welcome
Amazing thumbnails and amazing value in the content. No doubt 😃👍👍
Glad you like them! Thank you
Coffee can investing or this? which is better?
Great Video. most of these things I know as I have studied but your videos help me to keep me on track. will be waiting for future content.
Thank you for your kind endorsement
Eagerly waiting for the day where i will be able to subscribe to your smallcase... Best of wishes for your upcoming endeavours sir👍
Thank you so much 😀
huge hands up to you sir for such informative content... honestly youre one of the top 3 educators i came across in my life till date🙏
Thanks so much for your kind words, Piyush! I'm happy to play a small part in your financial journey
Highly appreciated research and findings. Superb! Keep it up!
Thanks, Tissy. I think you were asking for editor access earlier today. As an editor access might make it difficult for other users to understand the framework, may I request you to download the excel sheet and work with it.
Appreciate your kind words.
@@shankarnath I copied and pasted. It worked. Noted with many thanks
@@tissyj Most welcome
No doubt this man is a Magician! Love the content!
:) .. I'm the half-blood prince
Another super HIT content from Super Humble Shankar Nath 👌
Thank you very much, Sree
If such a crazy alpha is possible with such a simple strategy, why do fund managers struggle to beat the index?
Isn't it the entire job of a fund manager and their team to research things like this?
What could explain what we observe?
Fund managers manage huge amounts of money. They can't easily exit their holdings as easily as we retail investors can.
More importantly why don't we have Small case for this from every provider.
very underrated channel.. great content again
Much appreciated!
Sankar Sir, I am in love with your style of content presentation. Thank You again for improving our lives by educating us with such ease. Bless you!
Request: I have been trying to understand & adapt Asset Allocation, but due to a poor understanding of the types of mutual funds and which ones work best for which type of investors(conservative, aggressive, etc), we end up making mistakes which are realized in long term. Assuming we all know in real time which type of investor we are, it will be a big help if you can cover this. Your videos on ET Money also do not cover this, also no other channel covered this on youtube. Not asking for a fancy video, just a live or plain video will work too. Actually, if I hear from you, my trust factor also kicks in.
Key Points:
- how many funds one should look into, for safety from fund manager mistakes POV.
- what types of funds is the right mix for diff types of investors for asset allocation
- Pattu Sir also explained that we should look into funds that give low lows instead of those giving high highs
Thank you very much. I covered my own asset allocation strategy in sufficient detail in my video (link: czcams.com/video/bN5QdxY3RVs/video.html). I have not seen a general asset allocation strategy yet but I'll have a video on AA from the lens of a conservation, income, balanced, growth and aggressive investor. I don't have a timeline on this but will add it to my content queue now. Thx for your suggestion
@@shankarnath Awesome and Thank You
Excellent work 👏
Thanks a lot 😊
Great video as always. Could you please also consider creating a video on Rule#1 Investing strategy by Phil Town.
Thank you for the suggestion. I'll try, I've heard of this before but unfortunately not many in India know Phil Town. If you have some writeup on it, pls do share.
Would love to invest in your Small case. Already have believe in your methods of working. Thankyou in advance for considering the creation of a small case.
Most welcome!
Awesome, Shankar! Keep up the great work. One day I will meet with you in person. :)
Thanks so much for your kind words! Will love to catch-up. I am based out of Delhi
Please make a small case with the magic formula. for us who are not bright with numbers. Great video. Got so much knowledge!
Hello Nabajyoti, thanks for your kind words. I think making a smallcase needs some SEBI related licenses etc., I'm not there yet. Pls allow me to circle back once I have something on this.
@@shankarnath yes please take your time and do the needful. And we'll keep learning from your videos. I didn't expect that you would reply to me. I'm super happy. Keep growing. 😌
Thanks
Hi Hari - thank you for this appreciation. I'm happy to see you are finding the content useful and hope you are applying it to your own investing framework.
Professor Nath, you made me feel as if I am sitting in my college lecture listening to Maths teacher after 30 years.. 🙂
Equations to Magic Potions .. that's a big leap in 30 years :) .. glad you enjoyed it!
That's absolutely right
If Shankar sir could come up with a smallcase based of any model that he think will work, my investing problem is solved.
Eventhough I might miss on great returns some years, atleast I know the journey is clear and in the right direction.
Waiting for it
Thanks for the vote of confidence 🙌
Thanks a lot
Most welcome!
This Channel deserves subscribers in millions.........SHARE
Thank you very much for your good wishes, Neeru
Thanks sir
Most welcome 🙌
Thank you very much; Can dividend payout history be another criterion along with these two parameters?
Most welcome. Joel Greenblatt didn't have any reference to dividend payout in his work around this formula
How I missed the great content you are posting on this channel ? Thanks for posting 📫. I would love and invest in your magic formula smallcase.
Most welcome. Please do share with your friends, colleagues and connections who would continue to enjoy and appreciate my content. Maybe some of them would like to subscribe to my channel. Thx!
Superb
Thanks!
Good research sir. . following this seems too much work.. especially for retail investors. And not many fund mgrs or other PMS's doesn't seem to follow this
Hello Ramya. Let's break it down:
1. Buying and selling once a year (say on 1st Jan) - EASY
2. Making the list on excel - EASY (took me an hour, 1.5 hrs max)
3. Verifying every stock in the list for cyclicity, governance, industry, headwinds, tailwinds, growth runway etc. is the complicated part
@@shankarnath true...sir. 3rd part takes lot of time... And doing it every year is not so easy.. as governance, cash flows , profits are items to be checked on a recurring basis
New Subscriber here. Thank you♥️
Welcome!
excellent
Thanks!
Hello Sir,
Informative content as usual.
As a passive investor I really want to know how we can invest in such a strategy.
I always get into a dilemma which strategy one should adopt. I really like coffee can investing approach that allows you to stay invested for longer time but at the same time i am intimidated by other strategies 😊
I have started reading Thinking Fast and Slow. Its an amazing book.
@Ejaj - i am sharing to learn here along with you, from my understanding, the answer to your question can be #allweatherinvesting style by Ray Dalio, if you chart out inflation vs growth graph in +/-, then you can chart from gold to bonds to real estate to equity (emerging, developed) to commodity in terms of their performance during these 4 quadrants. Then you can understand which asset mix will work better in every time. You can rebalance during period change.
Rising Inflation - Slowing Growth
Rising Inflation - Accelerating Growth
Slowing Inflation - Slowing Growth
Slowing Inflation - Acceleration Growth.
Since you are passive investor, these trend changes takes lot more years to happen and you can manage well.
Thank you, Ejaj. Please go with the strategy that works best for you. Personally, I use a combination i.e. pick the parts I like the most. Investing is an evolutionary process and as I am reading and researching, these are like Hansel & Gretel's breadcrumbs guiding me the path without really saying "here's a beautifully paved road".
Even through these videos, I am trying to put forward 2-3 concepts per video so that over this year .. my viewers can have 100-120 thought threads that they can continually adopt. Most of us have decades of investing in us, so there is time to learn & adapt. As I always say, "sharpen that axe!"
This is a really great video when most of the other fin videos are just regurgitating old content
Thank you very much, Rahul
What a video ❤
Glad you liked it!
I am surprised we don't have enough smallcases catering to this philosophy. There has to be a catch somewhere
First one to comment
First
Request u to make a detailed video on value investing parameters for identifying multibaggers in the long run...
Thanks for your suggestion, I'll add it to my content queue
Thank you for your very insightful video. Your videos are very helpful in learning new content. Could you share what screener is it that you use in the example?
Most welcome, glad you like them. I generally use screener.in, stocx.in and tickertape but am exploring a few more now
All the stocks you mentioned gave 30% returns in last 1 year
Sir can you please put screener link for this magic formula in description
@Shankar: I want your opinion on a slight add-on to Magic formula as follows: Do you think it will be beneficial if we also give Ranking to Profit growth 5yrs and Sales growth 5 yrs, and then finalize the top 30 companies?
Hello. Prima facie, every factor will look additive & great to have --- but without data I'll not be able to comment if it enhances the magic or fades it. If you have examined this hypothesis with data then please do share the results so that a better assessment can be made.
@@shankarnath so I came across some of the research informations online regarding the magic formula:
Various good combinations for duration 1999-2011 with S&P 500 as underlying index are:
Magic Formula and 12m Price index (momentum) +472.3%
Magic Formula and Price to Book +460%
Magic Formula and ERP5 +384.4%
Magic Formula and 5yr average Earnings Yield (EBIT/EV) +294.8%
@@shankarnath After a spectacular 2009 (in which the Greenblatt portfolios beat the market (S&P 500) by an average of 50%), stocks bought in 2010 lagged the market by 3%, and stocks bought in 2011 lagged the market by 28%. They beat the market by 7% in 2012 and 11% in 2013, but lagged the market by 9% in 2014, 10% in 2015, 13% in both 2016 and 2017, and 21% in 2018. Lastly, stocks bought in 2019, in the first nine months of that year and held for one year, lagged the market by 23%. Ouch!
Summary: It’s completely based on many aspects of the market dynamics.
Hello sir. Great content. Since you have shared several strategies like the coffee can, the magic formula etc. Which one would you recommend to an investor looking to invest around 10 lakh in the market?
Thank you. Personally, I don't use one strategy and I use a mix of these i.e. pick the best parts of each strategy as per my comfort. Infact, I am building my corpus in 3 to 4 buckets - each deploying a slightly different strategy - but being mindful of important core areas like asset allocation, systematic investing, rebalancing etc. It's difficult to explain it in words or a video because what might be comfortable to me may not be to others.
Hello Shankar
Hope you and your family doing great
I really appreciate the amount of effort for such a great quality video , big thanks to you
I am requesting you to make a video for normal investor with decent capital sized about 10 to 15 lacs with your all combined basket
please give us some insights in creating basket of strategy from your videos coffee can , magic formula, top 10 and remaining
All good, thank you very much for your suggestion.
Love your content, balaji amines is good ha ji, because it's going down and down
Thank you very much
@@shankarnath can hold balaji and average it
can you pls share screener link with this formula ?
Super
Thanks
You must start a Magic Formula Smallcase.
I'll try :) .. glad you liked the video
I unsubscribed to ET Money ever since you stopped appearing there. Lovin every video of yours!!
Thanks for this great content. Sir, make a video on 'Acquirers Multiple' by Tobias E. Carlisle.
Most welcome. Thx for your suggestion, I'll add it to my content queue
great video as always! adding debt & subtracting cash to calculate enterprise value seems counter intuitive..shouldn't it be the other way around?
Thank you. Sorry, I didn't understand the "other way around" part. Can you please detail it out a bit?
@@shankarnath adding cash & subtracting debt for enterprise value
❤
🙌
Shankar JI, Month on Month the top 30 stocks may change their position. How to choose the stock and accumulate and invest every quarter for 4 to 5 stocks over a period of 1 year.
Hi, here's how I would do it
1. Run the list once every 3 months and pick the top 5 stocks
2. Do this for the first 4 quarters which will get me 20 stocks
3. Then from next year onwards, don't run the list every 3 months but run it every 12 months
@@shankarnath Excellent. Thanks a lot. You made my day.
Hi sir, how did you calculate ROC for such a large number of companies, as this parameter is not available in the screeners? In the book, Joel says not to use ROE or ROA as it can be distorting.
You can make custom ratios in screener.in .. pls use that functionality
Thank you@@shankarnath
Your videos are very good but for people like me who are new to the fundamental terms might be hard to digest some part of your conversation. Keep up the good work going
PS-please be little more simpler while using finance terms just to reach larger audience.
Thank you Vikas. Here's my thought process.
1. There are 1,000s of videos for beginners. Topics like what is SIP, what is mutual fund etc. are aplenty and you are spoilt for choice. On the other hand, beginners-plus (i.e. people who have been investing for 1-2 years) have a lot lower count of videos, maybe a 1:10 ratio
2. What is also true is that a year from now, you will no longer be a beginner and would have graduated to beginners-plus. You would want more advanced content like magic formula, CANSLIM, peter lynch's methodology, coffee can portfolio, how to do a long-short, advanced screeners, industry analysis etc.
3. I am preparing these videos, so that when you reach that beginners-plus level .. you will have a ready repository of a 100+ videos that I can offer you which can match your expertise and thirst for knowledge. Because if I don't make these videos now, then when you are ready .. I won't be (100 videos take an year to make)
The seeds we sow today are eaten many months later!
@@shankarnath this isn't just excellent financial advice but also a very underrated content creation lesson. Plug in the gap for which there is a huge demand, in a field that is rapidly growing. You've beautifully bridged the gap between beginner investors and professional traders. You should rewrite this comment as a community post and pin it. Many aspiring content creators would benefit from this.
Ah .. why didn't I think of that, Debarun. Guess, I just write what I think :)
But yes, it's a nice idea to post it on my community .. even if it helps a single person, I would be happy. Will post it over the weekend. Thx!
Kindly do a similar video on CANSLIM technique
Thanks for the suggestion. I'll add it to my content queue
Please make videos on penny stocks
Thanks for the suggestion
2 years in markets, i didn't know about the magic formula. Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to many such videos and especially the industry analysis series
2 years is nothing buddy. I am in the market for last 10 years and still learns new things everyday.
Glad you found the video helpful. I have an industry analysis video coming up next week, maybe Saturday
Just a newbie doubt
Is Return on Capital and Return on Capitla Employed (ROCE) same?
Nope. There's a decent difference. Have a read: www.icicidirect.com/ilearn/stocks/articles/the-difference-between-roce-and-roic#:~:text=ROIC%20is%20a%20measure%20that,taxes%20and%20dividends%20are%20paid.&text=ROCE%20takes%20into%20account%20the,loans%2C%20and%20other%20debt%20obligations.
@@shankarnath Thank You❤
Sir reiterating my understanding
I should just consider ROIC (not ROCE) and Earnings Yield according to magic formula?
Correct?
Thank you for your video.
I have a doubt in that and can you please make me clear from that?
As mentioned in that Magic formula investing, we have to purchase the 5 to 6 of top 30 most rank companies on every 2 to 3 months period. In that scenario we will buy the last portion of companies at the month of 9 to 10. It takes almost closer to the current financial year. And we have to shortlist new magic formula based stocks on next year (another 2,3 months of last purchase). In the new stock list the last purchased stock may be a over valued and will not be in the new list means we are holding the high value stock next 9,10 months in our portfolio which means until holding 1 year. Is this correct or am i understand the magic stock investment concept wrongly.
Request you to please clarify the same and clear me to proceed the investment with out confusion.
Thank you once again to share these kind of videos to motivate me.
These formulas can be looked at different ways and are customizable. Like in this case, the stocks you buy in month 9 and 10 .. can be kept for the next 12 months .. and what is referred to as "annual rebalancing" can mean 4 balancings in a year i.e. 1 per quarter. For instance - say you bought A number of stocks in Y1Q1 (year1, quarter1), B in Y1Q2, C in Y1Q3 and D in Y1Q4. Now you can do the first rebalance in Y2Q1 where you sell the loser stocks of Y1Q1 and replace it with new stocks. And do this systematic exercise once every quarter. The effort is not high anyways
@@shankarnath Thank you so much for your reply sir .
Sir, i need to shortlist the recent stock list every quarter before i am going to invest or once i shortlisted the 30 stocks and every quarter i have to invest in that only ( Y1Q1=1 to 7 Stocks, Y1Q2= 8 to 14 stocks, Y1Q3= 15 to 21 stocks and Y1Q4= 22 to 29 Stocks).
Please reply sir.
@@madhankumar3581 Yes, you can try that
1998-2004 is 6 years not 16.
Will be waiting for your small case
Only if I could invest in the prospect of your CZcams channel reaching a million, just like the shares of a company or a crypto project token . Your CZcams channel will hit 1 million very soon.
Glad you are enjoying the content and finding it useful. And many thanks for your good wishes, appreciate it!
Great content and explanation
Glad you liked it!
so you can only rebalance the 5 stocks quarterly? not the whole portfolio?
No, yearly once - Rebalancing
And Quarterly - investing in 4-5 stocks
Do create magic formula smallcase sir for monthly sip,it’ll helps a lot for every investor sir❤
Thanks for the suggestion
Shankar Nath is a star!!!
I'm the half-blood prince
Very useful content indeed, Sir. In the context of this video, I wonder which is better in selecting the stocks:- using Magic formula OR using the Quant fund's approach as invented by Prof. Jim Simmons. Prof. Simmons's quant fund gave more returns than the Magic formula for a long period of time.
Your opinion, please😊🙏.
Thank you. I haven't gone into the ins-and-outs of Prof. Simons' approach but I understand it is quite complicated from a couple of documentaries I watched on the subject. The magic formula approach is a simple rules-based approach specifically made for retail investors. I have no particular opinion on which approach is better
@@shankarnath Thank you very much, Sir, for your genuine opinion.
I request you that if you get some insight about Prof. Jim Simmons's approach, then please make a video on that.
I understand that his approach is complicated to understand for the retail investors. However, if you get the information about his approach then it will be highly appreciated if you please make a video on that in a simple way for us to understand 😊🙏.
Dude your thumbnails
Sir, I want to join subscription based channel and would like to get personal recommendations. Whatever you tell is good to listen but impossible for me to practice. Kindly start subscription based channel.
Hi Vinay - I don't have a subscription based service as of now. Some viewers have sent in some ideas and few of them make absolute sense to the extent that I too would have joined a membership program. For now, I am focussing on creating good videos but you are right -- I will work on starting a subscription offering in 3-4 months from now that can offer a lot more value to serious investors
When will be next magic formula video will come sir?
No timelines. It might not be released as a video, it'll definitely be a part of my newsletter soon
Sirji plzz add reports in description section to study it....👍👍
And saluu 2 ur hardwork....👍👍
a small error at 10:11 in the video: the text reads "1998-2004" but since it is a 16 year period it should be "1988-2004" as you've said.
What's the point of mentioning returns only till 2009?
Sir
Nasim taleb take on stock markets , investment or trading per ek video banaiye
Thx for your suggestion, I'll add it to my content queue
Hi Shankar sir. Are you still with ET Money?
Kindly check my Linkedin profile, I keep it updated
@@shankarnath Thank you for responding sir. 🙏
Now that you are not with ET Money, I am having second thoughts of investing via them. 😐
Sir please please make a section of your reading list on your newsletter or either update us with your current reads in each and every video
Thanks for the suggestion