Betfair Trading: Why is trading so hard? Trading horse racing on betangel
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- čas přidán 22. 08. 2024
- Peter Webb - Bet Angel: I've often mentioned on my Betfair trading videos that as a professional trader on betangel I can give a net positive strategy to people and they still lose money.
In this video, I explain exactly why that happens and how self-doubt in a position can through you out of a perfectly good trade.
But also why this is actually the norm in the market, how the behaviour you want to see is almost never what you will witness when trading.
Good video. Thank you. I struggle more with being too optimistic thinking the position will come good and not exiting sooner for a smaller red.
They struggle because you cannot tell when a horse is going to be backed or drift
For me, the best little 'nugget' came between 8-33 and 9-12. I reckon one of the hardest aspects of trading, is knowing HOW to build up those plus and minus reasons for entering a market in the first place. I reckon only experience - and hours of EFFECTIVE screen time will help us there......
Nice video though Peter. :-)
I absolutely love sports trading, win or lose, and watch your videos avidly. The videos are, in my opinion the most informative "out there". This is a fantastic example and perfectly demonstrates the problem of distinguishing between market noise and a "true" market move. It was years before this crucial aspect dawned upon me and, to be honest, I still struggle to be able to identify which is which, but getting a vague grasp of it turned me from loser to marginal winner.
The truth is that trading is a zero sum game - for someone to show profit someone else has to show loss. Factor in slippage and commission then the maths is that for one person to win, several people have to lose. And beyond the maths, the stark reality is that for 1 person to be profitable, 80-90% must be unprofitable as the profitable skilled traders stay around and become big traders, while the unskilled and unprofitable traders wash out after a while. This is true of Betfair trading and financial trading.
Nice video once again Peter. I think this is the reason that horseracing trading is so difficult and why a few of us prefer to trade in play on markets such as football as the prices tend to correlate to what happens on the pitch,court or field of play and it's usually easier to form an opinion this way. You can also get in and out of the market easier in markets that tend to last roughly a couple of hours to ones that last merely a few minutes. The realist in me tells me to avoid horseracing trading altogether and the gambler side pulls me in and tells me I can find a way of making money from it. It's also easier to trade football with smaller stakes versus horseracing,I find anyway.
Thank you I have added a third to my profit after watching this I am now more confident of sitting on my hands a bit longer instead of trading out for the loss, its amazing how many times one trade goes from losing to winning and back again in one trade its all about being patient.
It happens often, glad the video has been of help.
I would say the number one reason without a doubt why it is so hard to trade is spoof money and traders withdrawing money, we have all backed or laid at the top or bottom of the price range only for money to just vanish, suddenly you are 3 or 4 ticks out and the market continues to rocket out the wrong way, I cannot at all get an angle on this, Ive been seriously trying for 12 months to get some kind of feel or reason why this happens and where to spot this, I have given up on pre race trading and gone back to handicapping races resulting in straight lays or backs, pardon the pun but horses for courses, thats my speciality, weight, distance, class, ground trainer/jockey combo, if you can make money pre race and are making it with regularity then you go for it, I am a huge believer in anything is possible and you can be anything or anyone you want to be, good luck to you all with your pre race trading, I think you guys who make a profit are incredible.
Peter can you explain what are the 'reasons' you come up with for deciding if a price is going to go up or down? What general factors are you looking at
It is all down to luck. You have to decide if a horses price will come in or go out. There is no way to know what will happen, especially at smaller tracks. For example in an evening meeting a bet of £500 can send the market crazy. There are a few things that can give you an idea of what might happen but unless you have inside information it is just guesswork.
There are plenty of clues in the market but ultimately you need to anticipate something that is about to happen.
Awsome video, exactly what I needed. I would like to know if you offer more information on horse race trading, apart from the youtube videos. Thanks alot
you have said it many times but it did seem to sink in better with diagrames thanks peter
6:00 minutes into the video. I've heard you refer to an internal score card a few times, rating your confidence of a trade out of 10 to help you judge whether to stay in, add to or drip out of your trades. What are these aspects you look out for and how do you quantify them? Or is this giving away too much of an edge? When I trade, I am still second guessing myself and am not sure if what I am using as points for my eternal score card are what I should be thinking about.
I can echo this and I think this is my problem I am constantly thinking on weather this is the correct thing to be.looking at. Thanks God there are other out there with the same.problem.
The road is long , with many a winding turn.....That leads us to frustration and loss ! I've been "shaken out" countless times and also stayed in a negative position too long waiting for it to turn around when it's plainly hopeless. However given what you advise I will try to take a longer term view and see if I can hold my nerve long enough to profit. Many thanks for your help
james whaley I remember in an Economics lecture at Uni a lecturer explaining that those who think they can explain what is happening in the market are just guessing. he explained about countless empirical studies which proved that the market goes on what he described as a 'random walk' in its climb. if I understood him correctly he maintained it was impossible to know where price was going in the short term. he was talking about the Stock Market mind.
@@peznino1 I think the same principles still hold true in sports trading. Longer term moves are perforated by short term variance or 'noise'.
But what is a long time position when there is 10 minutes gap to trade pre race
👍2:28 thank you very much Peter.bad English. You a best.👍
Thank you.
Thank you Peter
Brilliant, just brilliant.
Peter , could you please clarify as to the points in your mind you go through when making trading decisions , you mention your " internal score card". It woild be great if you could list what you want to ,happen before and during a trade and how this thought process related to the card
Its not hard, just lay the favourites who have doubts about them and it will pay off in the long run. I never lay anything bigger than 2-1
Your trading strategy is to never lay above 2-1? Or are you saying this is a betting strategy?
@@betangeltv I find that way I get a steady profit without risking big losses. My aim is to clear about £400 to £500 per month. Just doing as a bit of fun & not putting myself under great risk. I'm sure there is alot more strategy to your trading but I don't have the time. I just study the racing post and go for horses which might not like the going & doubt's about the distance.
there are other things I look for like if a horse is not fully proven to be a short price and also horses which look un genuine but still are priced as favourites.
I know what you mean. There are lots of " False Fovorites" on the markets. Find it and make money from it.
I lost 30k and more on Betfair, there is no proven strategy and these guys making the youtube videos do it because they are not profitable traders, nobody is long term. they will never show you their accounts because they don't want you to know the truth. STAY AWAY FROM BETFAIR TRADING!
Hi James, I'm sorry to hear that. Trading definitely isn't for everybody and I've always instructed my team to err on the side of caution when advising people. I search my records, but couldn't identify you as a customer, so I can't reach out directly to you.
There are plenty of things that work pretty well as I have proven over the course of nearly twenty years now. Losing £30k must mean that you were doing something fundamentally wrong as trading itself at random is more or less a break even proposition (less frictional costs).
One problem that the market faces as a whole is that you and other people have no idea what is genuine or not. I see content produce on a regular basis that is just total fantasy, but then that is compounded by people pushing, promoting or falsely claiming that it works. Because of my relationship with Betfair, I've got a good idea of the shape of the market and individuals within it. So I can see through it, but I think most people can not.
I've tried hard to educate people about the realties of trading, but I think it's an almost impossible task as people just love a winner! While trading is definitely the only viable way of profiting from sports markets, I fear it's now being totally misrepresented and a lot of what people are calling trading, is just old fashioned gambler tidied up in a new wrapper.
That probably explains why I've found it almost impossible to get any credibility for what I do.
Trading is great, but takes a lot of work like anything in life. There are no short cuts. Sorry to hear you saw the bad side of it.
James, you really can make money Betfair trading, my recommendation is to try Bet Angel & explore & experiment all the features within it, in time it really will help you identify moves, you really will find that there are situations that repeat themselves over & over, it took me ages to work out how to unpick markets to give me a better understanding over the markets, best of luck in all you do
As JFK might have said “We choose to trade pre-race horse prices, not because it is easy, but because it is hard"
So does the Betfair market react by changing the odds due to the weight of money for a horse as with Betfair you are betting against someone else, the bookmakers change theirs to keep a 100% book. So in theory Betfair and the Bookies could have wildly different odds and favourites for each race.?
hi Peter, I want to learn to trade from you. I'm based in Dublin. do you run courses in Ireland or give live one to one Skype coaching perhaps?
Great lecture
Many thanks
Why doesnt it show the current market price on the ladder? thats whats confusing me. especially when its gappy. i dont have any clue where to place a bet relative.
Sorry, not sure of your question?
i worked it out. the price highlights as it moves and you can see the current backing support level. great software.
thanks
Do you ever back the field.
It would be nice to name those reasons especially for young traders.....
Young Traders - what about us oldies? Oh, you mean, New traders? :-) LOL
ye hold the position soo you u burn at the end, cant win its impossible ive lost thousands only winners are betfair,,
yeah you've lost so no one can win, nice logic
Somebody wins your money so i guess there is some one who wins
You drawed a woman's breat.....lol