Betfair trading | Three consecutive pre-off horse racing trades & some trading tips!
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- čas přidán 15. 08. 2020
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If you are just starting out on your Betfair trading journey if can be very confusing, especially on horse racing markets.
The markets are driven by opinion and often people turn up to a horse racing market on the Betfair betting exchange and attempting try and work out what is happening.
But I would be an advocate for have a strategy or tactic and then waiting for the market to present that opportunity to you.
Are you backing or laying first? Which runner will you be looking at? Why do you expect the trade to work? Then then you try and find that in the market.
If you can't find it, you don't trade.
Once you have perfected that strategy, you can then start to get a bit cleverer.
In this video, I discuss this concept and also show you three trades where I force myself to look for a back entry.
I just did this so you can see if you look for something you should be able to find it. But these three trades and slightly different from each other.
If you hunt for one specific Betfair trade or particular strategy, you may have to wait for it to appear. I've just used my knowledge here to pick off some trades.
#betfair #betfairtrading #betting - Sport
Well, well, well, I watched this video the other night not far from your home town of Southampton in a hotel room while working away, Ive mostly been a punter over the years but always wanted to trade successfully without gambling, today when I got back to Lancashire , I said right lets do this , no distractions, just focus on favourites and favourites who I think will be backed in, to cut a long story short , thats the best afternoons trading ever , not only that confidence grew and grew I was now identifying horses approaching crossover points that I was pretty sure would break through them, never before would i ever think of backing at 4.2 , this afternoon I did because I knew it had a very good chance of going through , of course some trades went the other way but on the whole I was right a lot more than I was wrong , there were some races I couldnt work out what was happening , in the past I would have tried to steal a couple of ticks, today there was no chance of me doing that , so i dont mind saying I traded for 3 hours today with 100 pound stakes, all back trades , amazingly i am 51 pounds up. The thing is yes ive been a racing fan and punter for many years and certainly I backed a coupe of horses because they were heavily tipped but the main change today was focus, waiting for the right moment and not panicking when you lose a trade, youre going to get it back , there is no way Im saying I have cracked this , there are races which confuse the hell out of me, namely two strong favourites or maiden races, not for me scary as hell but this video jumps out at me with the word KISS, not the American rock group , keep it simple stupid, looking forwards to tomorrow , best video youve ever done, thanks
The two longest sentences I've ever read.
Pretty new to trading. Felt like I've been getting out of my depth but this seems like a good steer back on track. Thanks Peter!
Glad it was helpful!
Very clear explanations of analysis and comparisons - really useful video, thank you!
Many thanks for your feedback.
You can't buy 20 years of experience unfortunately, the confidence and control you have is genuinely amazing to watch. I'm learning about 6 months now and sometimes feel like giving up. Creating winning trades isn't difficult for me, it's controling my losing trades that I cannot master. Thank you for your content.
Many thanks for your comment. It does take some time to master and half the battle is with yourself.
Great video, Thanks Peter and probably an important lesson for me as i was probably trying to climb above my station before getting the basics sorted. Was getting rather disenchanted by making 1 step forward then three back.
It's sort of like that when you start out. A sort of splutering engine.
Fantastic to watch the expertise demonstrated here. I've tried, on and off to trade like this for 10 years, without success, it is a real skill.
Thanks for your comment. I think half the skill to be honest, is to think about what people are thinking about.
Another informative video. Thank you. With doing a lot of automation recently I think I need to go back to basics.
Glad it was helpful!
Great video Peter. This situation really hit home with me and will be very useful. Not new to trading but still making novice mistakes. Your explanation on trying to predict everything on multiple runners is exactly what I do and I'm sure I'm not the only one. You make it seem so simple and the market looks like it's going in slow motion. Going to try and put this into practice this week and hopefully see some improvements. Thanks again excellent video 👍
Glad it was helpful!
Cracking video. Well explained again.
Thanks for watching
Good luck for your trading !
Thanks! You too!
Great video for newbies
Glad you liked it
Australian horse racing is pretty easy too predict like you said once you know what too look out for and such but USA U.K. and Ireland and extremely hard great video as always
Good content thank you. It is too easy to become jack of all trades i find, then read it wrong.
Y, it's worth focusing on one thing and building out from there.
Been trying now for the past 3 month but cannot seem to get the grasp of it, the reason why is I’m trying to do too much as this video explains. So going to take your advice and just concentrate on the one runner, thanks
Just focus on one runner, one strategy and write down a list of thing you need to see before you trade. At first it will be really slow and painful, but eventually you will start to pick up speed and get ahead of the market.
Thanks for taking up my suggestion! It helps as I do the same thing and it’s good to see that I’m not guessing or being fooled by randomness.
However, I often predict/ anticipate the direction correct 80% of the time (by looking at graphs and ranges etc) at around 12 mins prior to the off where there is average 70k matched but I am still profitable and consistent and most of my trades are completed by 5 mins to post. The question is, when I do get it wrong, it feels like I’m guessing. Am I trading too early? Even though I am consistently profitable? Not a newbie to it but would really appreciate your thoughts on it if possible.
Thanks for the video and imputing so much time and effort into your customers and viewers requests!
Good video. Looking forward to the York meeting. I wander where we will be with coronavirus this time next year.
Y, looking forward to some quality on the card. The problem with the future is that it hasn't happened yet, so I guess we will have to deal with that as see it. Hopefully things will have settled down.
Great video for someone new to the game. I've been doing exactly what you said, trying to spot multiple events all at the same time. The result is I've lost more than I've gained.
I'm only three weeks in but feel I'm getting there now. I'm going to have a week in "Practice mode" just using the technique in this video whilst logging my trades to see how it goes before I jump in again.
The stats I have so far suggest the lower distance races I do the worst in (more volatile?) And the longer distances I do better. Will see what this week brings!
It's more the type of race you are trading that is important, rather than the distance.
@@betangeltv Thanks, yeah I'm starting to see patterns (From data outputs from BA Guardian) Have you any videos on how to trade different martkets? I've been through 100's of your videos and your academy, but can't recall seeing any - apologies if I've missed them
Interesting video.Understood most of the reasoning there except the last trade. Predicting that the 2nd fav was going to drift and not break through especially after that large back order is near on mystical to me. I get with the race parameters/makeup why you exited when you did but the entry I can only put down to your experience.Will watch a few times and ponder. Cheers
I could see money coming for the favourite and the 2nd and 3rd were weak.
Peter, Thanks for this video. What action/criteria do you use when a trade goes against you? In other videos you have said that trades DO go wrong and you look at the P/L for a whole trading day to measure success.
I've always wondered what's on the other 3 screens ... it's interesting that we always see only one screen
But overall, this is good video and advice
It's a valid quesiton, but when I'm travelling I only use one screen and can trade perfectly well using that. I tend to look at charts, Betfair charts and the Bet Angel advanced charts.
It's almost impossible to record and present all four screens in one video so I tend to just focus on the main trading screen. I do remove some things from it to keep it clean, so there are little bits missing as it were, but I hope you understand that I need to do that to keep things within reach of most people.
I'd encourage Bet Angel users to modify their screens so it present useful informaton to them when trading.
Just moving from match betting into exploring trading & have been feeling very swamped & overwhelmed today. No serious damage done as only using minimum stakes out of a bit of match betting profit but was questioning whether I am mad to try learning to trade. Need to take your advise and learn one thing at a time!
In the last example, I would have said the second favourite looked like it was likely to come down based on the fact that large back orders were going in and there was a high volume traded on it. What was it that made you back the favourite and not the second favourite?
For starting out learning to trade, learning 1 strategy to master as you suggest, if using small stakes & being selective with trades, if this resulted in yielding a small profit, would you still recommend this as a good way to start out? Without knowing how scalable the strategy could be..could small stakes be scaled up to x10-100?
Similar to Forex trading, you Buy it (LAY) at the lower price and sell it for profit (TP) at the higher price or the other ways you Sell it (BACK) at the higher price and take profit (TP) at the lower price but anyway you have to set your Stop loss (SL) below the Buy point (Lay point) or above the Sell poin (Back point) depend on your Risk and Reward ratio.
Spot on
Totally beyond my capabilities 😂 but fascinating to watch.not a clue and will never attempt this 😂
It's good to self acknowledge something that you find hard. It's probably the best way to avoid losses! But may try something smaller first or a variation on a betting theme as trading can usually improve that.
Just started after watching your excellent videos. Currently looking for "pace" horses as shown on ATR and Patternform with a good record of their price dropping, top 4 in betting, back at the "off" and lay for 2/3 ticks.
Good luck. Timeform have some decent pace indicators as well.
hi, what would you have done if say in last vid after placing back bet at 4:30 and it gets to 4:10 then a stack of money comes in on lay side and it jumps out to 5 in a blink of a eye ? this happens regulary on many markets
If only it was this easy for us mere mortals!
Yes we all watch the master, he makes it look very easy, but to him it is...20 yrs has shown him how a narket is going to pan out and probably cost him as well over the years..hats off to him👍
Many thanks, everybody has to tread the same path. But mine is well trodden!
Hi Peter. I'm sure we once worked for the same firm in B/stoke ;-) I'm most definitely a newbie and sticking to a back/lay strategy across various markets to get me started. With Doncaster today and over the weekend I'm studying this and your other Horse Racing videos. One challenge is following the mouse while listening to what you are saying. So to test my understanding on the first video at around 5:26, you said you "got involved around 4.5/4.6". At this point in the video I think you have £150 matched, £250 waiting around 4.2 - 3.9 and up by the stakes boxes there's a box with your total £400, does this mean; in play, so to speak? To exit the trade you put in equivalent back bets. I know at the end you said the three videos are examples of Back/Lay, which sort of confused me until I realised the first video is definitely Lay/Back - I think - If I have this all correct. Keep up the great videos - thanks.
Another wonderful Peter, thank you. Just 1 question, are you still applying your edge to this trade as you go along or is the way your trading already your edge? If that makes sense!
I get my edge from knowing roughly what to do in each market. I never know for sure, but I have a good idea of what is likely to happen so I work in that frame of reference. Hope that answers your question.
@@betangeltv it does, thank you Peter. Much appreciated.
It would help if you showed whether they were handicap races or not and how much time before the off...
I usually do, it just depends on how the screen is setup etc. I guess I didn't on this occasion.
What would be a pointer that the downward trend has topped and even might now drift?
these are great videos they dont give you false hope he admits after 20 years you can still get it wrong
Better to be realistic than poor!
Hi Peter,
Just wondering if I could pick your brain for a second.
I am just wondering is it worth spending any time analysing starting prices from the Betfair data? My angle when combing through the data would be something along these lines -- is there a certain floor on a price for say a fave in novice race with 8 runners/6f?
In the above analysis, the goal would be to see if I can recognise if a novice was backed in too much and would maybe drift a little (which would become my strategy for that type of race).
Is it worth trying to find patterns like that or should every race be taken on its own merits, with no discernible price patterns in races with specific crietria - e.g. Novice/8 runners/6f.
Hope this makes sense.
As ever, thanks for the content and have a good day trading,
Dave
All that data will show you is that the market is more or less efficient, so you probably don't want to waste too much time on that. When you are trading, you are trading volatility, so it's the difference of opinion in the market that you are trading.
@@betangeltv Thanks Peter - noted.
You trade out and not hedge this means you on,y pick up the points if it wins and in effect free bet ? ..... when I have been trading like this I thought I needed to hedge my offset ?
Talking is easy but predict a winner in one selection
Do you have tips for greyhounds or videos?
Not particularly. I do some automated stuff on Greyhounds but they are quite small markets individually, so it's difficult to show much on them.
Some great threads on the forum that you may want to read. Including somebody that went from a novice to doing well on greyhounds.
Does reading handicap form guide help choose a particular horse say favorite or the second favorite price movement to be in one particular direction
Not particularly. The late market is dominated so much by opinion and what the horse is doing on the day.
Early on you can use the form to identify a possible mis-pricing. But there is often little to no money in the market.
@@betangeltvwhat time period is considered a late market by your experience is it the final 2 minutes or something where the mad rush happens what is your advise I'm selecting few lay to back options based on the pace , weight and distance increase do you have any methods to pick a back or lay selection or you just use indicators ..... thanks For the reply appreciated 😊
The late market is about 30 minutes before the race starts. At that point the horses are getting saddled up and people are looking at them for the first time and may change their opinions.
@@betangeltv you mean those who are at the track influence more than someone who get to see the horse in the final few minutes when the video streaming occurs makes not lot of sense for someone who is just aiming for few ticks does it
A lot of complaints I see about trading are that people don't understand why trends change or prices move suddenly. But it's often the on course activity that is doing that.
If you are in and out in seconds, it's less likely to be a problem.
in the last trade, what is the reason behind that decision of exiting right below 4 and not letting it reach lower prices?
Because it looked like it was about to break that key point.
Peter quick question please, do u ever trade 2 horses in the same market with the cross matching, one up one down, or do u just concentrate on the 1 selection ??
In the right market I will trade more than one runner. Say at a big meeting it often makes sense to do so if the market is stable enough to not lose control. If you trade both in the same direction, then you will definately get one of them right! Hopefully both.
Bet Angel that’s more useful advice than u realise, many thanks, I’ll concentrate 100 % on my selection and watch the others for movement to support my horse 👍
I trade sports find racing harder
Trading pre-off is a 'pure' trading market, it's just your opinion against others and a net result at the end depending on how you trade.
In other trades, especially inplay, you are somewhat dependant on the result, but this can make it more 'predictable'. I think this is why people like the inplay stuff.
@@betangeltv ur right mate it is but i still wacth ur videos i find alot of vuale in what u say even but u mainly trade horses
Yes I claim it $3000-000 I claim it i'claim it
"sit on your hands"
I have no idia what the heck is this about?
Me neither 😇
Just visit www.betangelacademy.com if you want to get started.
Avoid Irish racing if you aren’t highly experienced.. it’s shall we say 🤔 unpredictable 😂 .. yes that’s a euphemism.. fill in the blank 🎰
Yes, it can be pretty lively.