My thougts are: I have tested the cars and the swap and the technology is just great. There is no other like NIO. If NIO can't make it we have to question the whole EV sector. Since I am driving EVs since 2016 I know that it works and the global EV sales numbers show annual increases in double digit percentage numbers. Simply said: I am very confident that NIO will be one of the top 5 car manufacturers in the next decade.
Thank you sir! I totally agree NIOs total deliveries in 2025 alone could very easily be over 500k including all three brands. I'll stay patient and add when I can.
Great analysis on battery swap. When the partners start building their swap stations at their expense with NIO operating them and we are earning some money as their cars are swapped, profitability will come sooner.
Do not forget the EV makers that have a battery swapping partnership with Nio. Obviously it will take a while before the cars of these EV makers are retrofitted accordingly, but when they are this will further improve Nio Powers profit significantly. By that time the number of Nio cars produced is not important anymore...at least not for Nio Power. By then I also hope geopolitical views have been subsided and Nio stock would be at all time highs again.
Thank you for continuing the interesting and important topic on NIO Power Swap Stations (PSS). However, my approach to calculation is different. Let me explain. So far, NIO has delivered about 530,000 cars and all those cars are generating 70,000 battery swaps per day. To generate 3 times more swaps (3,400 x 60 = 204,000; 204,000/70,000 ~ 3) NIO needs 3 times more cars on the road. So, NIO needs a total of 1,590,000 cars on the road (530,000 x 3 = 1,590,000). Taking into account that 530,000 cars are already on the road, NIO needs to deliver an additional 1,060,000 cars (1,590,000 - 530,000 = 1,060,000). Now let's see how much time will NIO need to deliver all those vehicles. We can assume a total of 600,000 deliveries per year for all three brands (NIO + Onvo + Firefly), or 200,000 deliveries per year for each brand. By the end of 2024, there will be about an additional 110,000 NIO and 50,000 Onvo cars delivered. So, the total in 2024 is 160,000 vehicles (110,000 + 50,000 = 160,000) That means that 900,000 cars remain to be delivered going forward after 2024 (1,060,000 - 160,000 = 900,000). From the beginning of 2025, the Firefly brand will start and the delivery rate will be 600,000 cars/year. That means it will take 1.5 years (900,000 / 600,000 = 1.5) to deliver all those cars (1.5 years from the beginning of 2025). So, NIO PSS would break even by mid-2026. Now, as you mentioned, this is a dynamic process. NIO had announced that they will deliver a total of 4,000 PSS in China by the end of 2025, cumulatively. If we assume that there will be 200 PSS in foreign countries by the end of 2025, and perform a similar calculation - NIO PSS would break even by the end of 2026. If NIO continues installing PSS in 2026 (they probably will) break-even date will be pushed further in the future. However, the break-even date will happen sooner if NIO's deliveries become higher than above mentioned 600,000 cars/year and/or if other car manufacturers start using NIO's PSS network.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. As I said the idea is that it would not be long for Nio to become profitable with the battery swap. The situation is dynamic, and the numbers are not exact. They are all rough estimates, so I would not put a specific date at this time.
I watched your content all the time. After watching few of your videos. My wife says i should buy few more NIO. Not knowing Im loaded up on NIO up till the brim. I must say you have this aura which convince others. May Allah keep you happy.
And just think what would happen when other EV manufacturers start swapping with NIO. More swap fees, cost savings on the buildout of the swap stations and income from managing the operations of partnered swap stations. And I wonder how many coffees they will sell now that the swap stations are offering coffees via vending machines. You can pay with your NIO phone! Thanks for your thoughts!
I've look at the NIO battery swap station this spring in China. It's so smoothly and so technology, It's so funny that i didn't feel nothing then done , I can stay over there even one whole day ,but not tired. I'm also very confident that NIO will be successful in the future!!
Hopefully, they will deliver on the UAE since they are invested hard in Nio, and they are part of the company, though i have the feeling the EP9 will be the leader their. They have money like sand 😅. I have the feeling they will even boost their sales there more than Europe. Your thoughts the great Odd and thanking you again for the great research you are doing for us, you really do bring us the best information concerning NIO.
Here in Korea too, Hyundai Kia Motors' startup company has now started developing baas. They are starting to feel the need to replace their batteries. Although it is a large company in the internal combustion engine field, it is more than five years behind Nio in the electric vehicle field.
Why are'nt more current owners of gas stations complaining to our government, about the limited access to build swap station here? It would only make sense to incorporate them now. In my opinion its time to get along with the technology NIO offers.
Good analysis, still NIO needs to target major cities for pushing out BAAS, since they already have SWAP infrastructure ready, and have more SWAP utilizations.
We should focus on the bigger picture, I believe. Swapping already is a resounding success. We have forged new partnerships that will soon show up on the future bottom line. Nio's income stream will grow logarythmically from here. I have no worries over whether we made a good investment or not. It's a moot point. What worries me has been the daily manipulation of its stock price. I will be hurt if Nio doesn't recover back above seven dollars before year end because of the wash rule regulations, and my pain is equivalent to a mosquito bite in comparison to some of the losses the majority of the others here have suffered. You have made some good observations regarding shorts. I think what really has been going on has been that high frequency trading has gotten way out of hand. It's escaped the ability of the big players to control the sizes and speed of execution of their trades and they don't have any idea how they can or will correct it. It's running amok due to sophisticated algos and computerized non-human contraventions. Our equity is but one of thousands in trouble. We need the exchanges to step in and slow everything down or it could end badly for everyone.
We always focus on the big picture. We covered shorting and especially naked shorting a few times. Check old videos. Wash sale rule is a personal issue.
@@gustavo-1972 Its a trading rule, the jist of which is designed to limit small investors from daytrading with under $25,000 total in available funds, and not listed professional day traders). The short explanation is that whenever we take a loss on a trade we are immediately blocked from offsetting our losses from our gains for tax purposes. We are obliged to obey the 30 day waiting rule which states we can only offset any losses with gains made in stocks that we have held for a minimum of 30 days straight (including weekends). Those losses will carry forward in future years, but the total amounts we can get discharged are limited each year. We can in essence lose $40,000 and make $20,000 but be restricted to writing off none of it because of failing to obey the waiting period. It can get complicated. There are several posts on YT explaining how it works. Your brokerage will have a formal explanation telling you their interpretation of how it works. If you don't know you should stop trading immediately until you fully understand the inherent liabilities, and if you trade on margin you definitely should stop trading until you cease trading on margin.
NIO needs other ev manufacturers to build cars using BAAS as standard then the swaps required for profitability does not rely on the shoulders of selling only NIO cars, thus profits can happen sooner. And don't forget, the other pillar that will push NIO up is the data side yes cloud business and ads revenue then weareables. These tech revenues can push NIO to higher levels too
There is also in my opinion a hidden gem if NIO ever decides to venture on the commercial utility fleet vehicles with Baas. Is not exploring so far that venue, small to mid sizes commercial vans for fleet and on the tech side fleet management software
Regarding the stocks I think the trading system is drunk as swift and soon the world will need to come up with another option as this system has degenerated completely.
No one is holding this company's share price down. look at BYD they earned $1.39 per share last quarter and they only trade price to book of 4.6. A wildly profitable company. Nio is around 2.6 price to book you should be glad the market is so forgiving when they lost -$1.24 per share last quarter as they are sprinting towards another capital raise which will make profitability even harder to attain. "build it and they will come "worked for a lot of industries when money was essentially free. Those days are long gone
Bro, Nio should have marketed there swap option in such a way that Nio owners would gladly pay for the privilege to be able to swap. Because William Li is lacking in many business 101 Skills, he now has a cash burning enterprise that could have been a money generator from the start…what a freaking waste of technology when you can’t profit from it.. sad stuff for share holders just SAD!😢😓😪🤕🤕🤕😩
These swap station owners have been given a tremendous opportunity to make a decent living coming out the gate. It doesn't take the smart ones long to realize the gold mine they are sitting on and quickly expand their operations. A gentleman in Florida has grown his ev battery repair shop into a multimillion dollar enterprise, one in which he fixes and repairs any brand of ev, and he now maintains a fleet of Lambos, Ferraris, Rolls Royces and others for sale or for rent. It all depends upon the foresight and ambitions of its owners. I'm eighty, but if I were in my thirties or forties I would be doing anything to secure the financing to buy my first swap station.
Well as much as I respect your work, I gotta keep it honest… There is wayyyy too much hypothetical wishing here and what you aren’t accounting for even if your hypotheticals did pan out, NIO is not just building another 1000 stations, in fact in a recent article, Li was quoting 100 thousand stations within the next 10-20 years I believe… But with all that being said, the hypothetical mindset is just a way to set yourself and others that listen to you up for a let down… Li hopes to sell 300,000 cars between all brands in 2025… If it’s more, that would be great, but your numbers are just a way for people to hype themselves up and then be let down if they aren’t achieved… Swapping being profitable has a long ways to go
My thougts are: I have tested the cars and the swap and the technology is just great. There is no other like NIO. If NIO can't make it we have to question the whole EV sector. Since I am driving EVs since 2016 I know that it works and the global EV sales numbers show annual increases in double digit percentage numbers. Simply said: I am very confident that NIO will be one of the top 5 car manufacturers in the next decade.
Totally agree
Thank you sir! I totally agree NIOs total deliveries in 2025 alone could very easily be over 500k including all three brands. I'll stay patient and add when I can.
You are welcome
We already have hit 500k accumulative EV deliveries for NIO I believe.
@@peterklausner9727 Sorry Peter I meant 500k total for the year of 2025 with all three brands
Delusion to think they'll get anywhere near 500k. 40k a month on average? Not happening
@@rune54321 May 9th 2024 produced
Great analysis on battery swap. When the partners start building their swap stations at their expense with NIO operating them and we are earning some money as their cars are swapped, profitability will come sooner.
Battery Swapping is the only way by NIO. - GO NIO !
GOD Bless You my brother keep up the good work 👍🏾
Do not forget the EV makers that have a battery swapping partnership with Nio. Obviously it will take a while before the cars of these EV makers are retrofitted accordingly, but when they are this will further improve Nio Powers profit significantly. By that time the number of Nio cars produced is not important anymore...at least not for Nio Power. By then I also hope geopolitical views have been subsided and Nio stock would be at all time highs again.
Thank you for continuing the interesting and important topic on NIO Power Swap Stations (PSS).
However, my approach to calculation is different. Let me explain.
So far, NIO has delivered about 530,000 cars and all those cars are generating 70,000 battery swaps per day.
To generate 3 times more swaps (3,400 x 60 = 204,000; 204,000/70,000 ~ 3) NIO needs 3 times more cars on the road.
So, NIO needs a total of 1,590,000 cars on the road (530,000 x 3 = 1,590,000).
Taking into account that 530,000 cars are already on the road, NIO needs to deliver an additional 1,060,000 cars (1,590,000 - 530,000 = 1,060,000).
Now let's see how much time will NIO need to deliver all those vehicles. We can assume a total of 600,000 deliveries per year for all three brands (NIO + Onvo + Firefly), or 200,000 deliveries per year for each brand.
By the end of 2024, there will be about an additional 110,000 NIO and 50,000 Onvo cars delivered. So, the total in 2024 is 160,000 vehicles (110,000 + 50,000 = 160,000)
That means that 900,000 cars remain to be delivered going forward after 2024 (1,060,000 - 160,000 = 900,000). From the beginning of 2025, the Firefly brand will start and the delivery rate will be 600,000 cars/year.
That means it will take 1.5 years (900,000 / 600,000 = 1.5) to deliver all those cars (1.5 years from the beginning of 2025).
So, NIO PSS would break even by mid-2026.
Now, as you mentioned, this is a dynamic process. NIO had announced that they will deliver a total of 4,000 PSS in China by the end of 2025, cumulatively. If we assume that there will be 200 PSS in foreign countries by the end of 2025, and perform a similar calculation - NIO PSS would break even by the end of 2026.
If NIO continues installing PSS in 2026 (they probably will) break-even date will be pushed further in the future. However, the break-even date will happen sooner if NIO's deliveries become higher than above mentioned 600,000 cars/year and/or if other car manufacturers start using NIO's PSS network.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. As I said the idea is that it would not be long for Nio to become profitable with the battery swap. The situation is dynamic, and the numbers are not exact. They are all rough estimates, so I would not put a specific date at this time.
GO #NIO !!!
I watched your content all the time. After watching few of your videos. My wife says i should buy few more NIO. Not knowing Im loaded up on NIO up till the brim. I must say you have this aura which convince others. May Allah keep you happy.
Thank you for the nice comments. I am just sharing some information for general knowledge
Nio needs approx 1.4m battery swap vehicles on the road for 60 swaps a day at 3400 swap stations, assuming each vehicle swaps once a week
We are talking about daily
Adding no more shares, but using the cost of 100 shares to buy x3 $5 leaps for 2026. Less risk, higher potential outcome
Leaps will smash it💯💯
Thanks Mr Odd, it is very useful. I love your videos. Other channels are not useful.
You are welcome. Glad you find the videos useful
And just think what would happen when other EV manufacturers start swapping with NIO. More swap fees, cost savings on the buildout of the swap stations and income from managing the operations of partnered swap stations. And I wonder how many coffees they will sell now that the swap stations are offering coffees via vending machines. You can pay with your NIO phone! Thanks for your thoughts!
Very true
Great video.. battery swap will be a massive profit center when all is said and done.
Hope so
Great perspective. Thanks.
I've look at the NIO battery swap station this spring in China. It's so smoothly and so technology, It's so funny that i didn't feel nothing then done , I can stay over there even one whole day ,but not tired. I'm also very confident that NIO will be successful in the future!!
Hopefully, they will deliver on the UAE since they are invested hard in Nio, and they are part of the company, though i have the feeling the EP9 will be the leader their. They have money like sand 😅. I have the feeling they will even boost their sales there more than Europe.
Your thoughts the great Odd and thanking you again for the great research you are doing for us, you really do bring us the best information concerning NIO.
Here in Korea too, Hyundai Kia Motors' startup company has now started developing baas. They are starting to feel the need to replace their batteries.
Although it is a large company in the internal combustion engine field, it is more than five years behind Nio in the electric vehicle field.
Is this ev startup company a joint venture between Hyundai and Kia?
Thanks for your work.
You are welcome
Let not forget to add the partnership NIO have in regard to the swapping system with others car brand!
❤thank you for all the information you always provide inspiration and important information thank you
Why are'nt more current owners of gas stations complaining to our government, about the limited access to build swap station here? It would only make sense to incorporate them now. In my opinion its time to get along with the technology NIO offers.
Good analysis, still NIO needs to target major cities for pushing out BAAS, since they already have SWAP infrastructure ready, and have more SWAP utilizations.
Great video thank you 🙏
My pleasure!
Gracias amigo , saludos !!!!!! 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽
You are welcome
We should focus on the bigger picture, I believe. Swapping already is a resounding success. We have forged new partnerships that will soon show up on the future bottom line. Nio's income stream will grow logarythmically from here. I have no worries over whether we made a good investment or not. It's a moot point.
What worries me has been the daily manipulation of its stock price. I will be hurt if Nio doesn't recover back above seven dollars before year end because of the wash rule regulations, and my pain is equivalent to a mosquito bite in comparison to some of the losses the majority of the others here have suffered.
You have made some good observations regarding shorts. I think what really has been going on has been that high frequency trading has gotten way out of hand. It's escaped the ability of the big players to control the sizes and speed of execution of their trades and they don't have any idea how they can or will correct it. It's running amok due to sophisticated algos and computerized non-human contraventions. Our equity is but one of thousands in trouble. We need the exchanges to step in and slow everything down or it could end badly for everyone.
What is a wash rule regulation and how that needs to be above 7? If you don't mind explaining.
We always focus on the big picture. We covered shorting and especially naked shorting a few times. Check old videos.
Wash sale rule is a personal issue.
@@gustavo-1972 Its a trading rule, the jist of which is designed to limit small investors from daytrading with under $25,000 total in available funds, and not listed professional day traders).
The short explanation is that whenever we take a loss on a trade we are immediately blocked from offsetting our losses from our gains for tax purposes. We are obliged to obey the 30 day waiting rule which states we can only offset any losses with gains made in stocks that we have held for a minimum of 30 days straight (including weekends). Those losses will carry forward in future years, but the total amounts we can get discharged are limited each year. We can in essence lose $40,000 and make $20,000 but be restricted to writing off none of it because of failing to obey the waiting period.
It can get complicated. There are several posts on YT explaining how it works. Your brokerage will have a formal explanation telling you their interpretation of how it works. If you don't know you should stop trading immediately until you fully understand the inherent liabilities, and if you trade on margin you definitely should stop trading until you cease trading on margin.
NIO needs other ev manufacturers to build cars using BAAS as standard then the swaps required for profitability does not rely on the shoulders of selling only NIO cars, thus profits can happen sooner.
And don't forget, the other pillar that will push NIO up is the data side yes cloud business and ads revenue then weareables. These tech revenues can push NIO to higher levels too
Great content
Glad you like it
I really hope you are right
I think Nio will deliver huge amount only half 2026
Deliveries will increase significantly in q4 2024
Don’t forget that with all the recent incentive packages that many of the swaps are free
There is also in my opinion a hidden gem if NIO ever decides to venture on the commercial utility fleet vehicles with Baas.
Is not exploring so far that venue, small to mid sizes commercial vans for fleet and on the tech side fleet management software
Maybe with the Onvo brand and not Nio
Are you counting the cumulative vehicles already in the marketplace, won’t they be swapping too ?
The 70k swaps/day is an average based on the cumulative vehicles
Regarding the stocks I think the trading system is drunk as swift and soon the world will need to come up with another option as this system has degenerated completely.
Europe and USA will hold down the numbers for Nio
No.they are perfectly fine
No one is holding this company's share price down. look at BYD they earned $1.39 per share last quarter and they only trade price to book of 4.6. A wildly profitable company. Nio is around 2.6 price to book you should be glad the market is so forgiving when they lost -$1.24 per share last quarter as they are sprinting towards another capital raise which will make profitability even harder to attain. "build it and they will come "worked for a lot of industries when money was essentially free. Those days are long gone
Do not forget that other EV manufacturer will be using the battery swap stations probably starting at the end of 2025 2026
True
Some people may use chargers not bs.
What is the percentage of owners still swapping for free ?
Profitable 2026 if we are lucky.
Before
Has free swapping stopped yet ?
Yes summer of last year I believe.
So when we have 1 million vehicles on road bs is profitable.
Let’s go nio 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
hellooooooooo odd investor EY....
Bro, Nio should have marketed there swap option in such a way that Nio owners would gladly pay for the privilege to be able to swap. Because William Li is lacking in many business 101 Skills, he now has a cash burning enterprise that could have been a money generator from the start…what a freaking waste of technology when you can’t profit from it.. sad stuff for share holders just SAD!😢😓😪🤕🤕🤕😩
The swap number I think still has 40% are free every day.
NIO give out too many tickets
These swap station owners have been given a tremendous opportunity to make a decent living coming out the gate. It doesn't take the smart ones long to realize the gold mine they are sitting on and quickly expand their operations.
A gentleman in Florida has grown his ev battery repair shop into a multimillion dollar enterprise, one in which he fixes and repairs any brand of ev, and he now maintains a fleet of Lambos, Ferraris, Rolls Royces and others for sale or for rent.
It all depends upon the foresight and ambitions of its owners. I'm eighty, but if I were in my thirties or forties I would be doing anything to secure the financing to buy my first swap station.
Excellent comment
It won't. Some other company will but not NIO.
Well as much as I respect your work, I gotta keep it honest… There is wayyyy too much hypothetical wishing here and what you aren’t accounting for even if your hypotheticals did pan out, NIO is not just building another 1000 stations, in fact in a recent article, Li was quoting 100 thousand stations within the next 10-20 years I believe… But with all that being said, the hypothetical mindset is just a way to set yourself and others that listen to you up for a let down… Li hopes to sell 300,000 cars between all brands in 2025… If it’s more, that would be great, but your numbers are just a way for people to hype themselves up and then be let down if they aren’t achieved… Swapping being profitable has a long ways to go
There is no hypothetical wishing. The 100k swap stations will not be Nio's responsibility. You are mixing things up
@@TheOddInvestor there is a lot of hypotheticals when you think about NIO selling over 200k more cars then even they plan to in 2025