Putin Will Never Invade Ukraine: 3 Reasons For & Against - TLDR News
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- čas přidán 27. 01. 2022
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Russia/Ukraine Playlist: • The Russia Ukraine Con...
We've been talking about the potential of Russia invading Ukraine for months now, and while tensions have been slowly ratcheting up it's not yet happened. So in this video we go through 3 reasons why Putin will & won't actually end up invading Ukraine.
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1 - www.nytimes.com/2022/01/17/us...
2 - SamRamani2/status...
3 - www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
4 - www.euractiv.com/section/poli...
5 - www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-r...
6 - www.economist.com/leaders/202...
7 - www.economist.com/leaders/202...
8 - / 1486234510874357767
9 - • Why is Ukraine the Wes...
10 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Uk...
11 - • Why is Ukraine the Wes...
12 - • Why is Ukraine the Wes...
13 - www.researchgate.net/figure/D...
14 - kyivindependent.com/national/...
15 - www.economist.com/europe/2022...
So did Germany send 5000 helmets twice for a total of 10,000?
🤣
Came here to say this haha
Was waiting for that one
Yes.
That will sure stop russia!
Fear our 10k helmets!
"We spared no expense"
No, the title to the video didn't age well. But the video itself contains intelligent analysis, acknowleges the possibility of invasion, and invites varying opinions.
yep, the video did not age well...
We're a strange bunch.
Idk why are u saying that. If you actually read the title you'll see it didn't actually say russia won't invade Ukraine
I think it aged well
"the title to the video didn't age well"
how?... It's even stated again at 1:10
this aged well.
Yep
Yep, 200,000 dead. More to come.
@@jimgraham6722 I thought it was 105K+ dead or smt like that
@@6000. bit of an unknown, but I think ruzz military plus uke military and civilian will come close to 200K.
There are also at least 200K uke 'missing' from areas occupied by ruzz, whereabouts and condition unknown, but probably in tradition of Stalin's tartar clearances, it's likely they have been relocated to Siberia with their cleared properties likely to be assigned to demobbed ruzz and wagner army people.
Well this was a fucking lie
The trouble with a bluff is that it can become difficult to back down from.
People in Russia weren't really told much so he's probably not worried about backing down.
@@olsenfernandes3634 Why are you talking about "people in Russia" if obviously you don't know anything about it? This topic is one of the most discussed in the media in recent weeks (if not months).
@@MrSkoresh Did you listen to what was said in the video properly?
@@olsenfernandes3634 Maybe Vbskor is Russian and knows better what is being said on Russian television ... but Westerners know all of them, they know how to play the balalaika better than the Russians.
@@olsenfernandes3634 My bad, I missed this particular moment in the video. In any case, this is completely untrue, state television talks about Ukraine every day, mainly in the context of "look what else they came up with". Russian opposition media and western publications broadcasting in Russian (Russian BBC, Russian DW and so on) also talk about it all the time, so the idea that the Russians do not know something is nonsense.
Rather, on the contrary, I could not find anywhere in the Western press a translation of a recent interview of the Ukrainian defense minister to the Ukrainian channel ICTV, where the minister himself states that "according to their data, there is no direct threat and the Russian troops have not created a single strike group indicating a possible invasion".
Those stories about "troops on the border" are also a very interesting narrative, I would recommend anyone worried about the war to open the NYTimes article and look at the names of the places where the Russian troops are located, and then find these places on the map. It turns out that the largest training camps are not "near the border of Ukraine", but at a distance of 200 and 300 km. And yet, for some strange reason, in the Western press there is only rhetoric about "troops on the border" and very strange distorted maps, and not direct data on the distance to Ukraine.
I would say that this was intended as a bluff but that doesn't mean Putin will back down if it means losing influence.
Biden gave him the green light
Crazy
BETTER TO BACK DOWN AND HAVE A FEW RUBLES LEFT.
@Владислав Пронин
He could bypass the East and image the west of Ukraine, that would be smart but difficult and Biden probably would only tolerate the invasion of ethnic Russian areas
@Владислав Пронин how much do they pay you per comment
@Владислав Пронин So why does all the evidence say that Ukraine is exactly that opposite of this statement? Is it all fake news? I mean... why not. Most news is fake.
this aged well
The analysis is actually very good. All the reasons that against invasion now confirms the real dilemma that Russian soldiers are current in , it also confirms the dilemma that Russia is current in. From a rationale person's perspective (based on Western thinking), it is in Russia's best interest not to invade Ukraine, it is simply not worth it, too risky and too costly. However, a reasonable person's rationale underestimates Putin's ambitions and his personal resolve.
This sums it up really well
you don't even know the difference between rational and rationale.
Yes, this video is a guess and only a guess.
but in the end it was wrong.
Let’s say it a third time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”
4th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”
5th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”
6th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”
7th time "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets"
8th time "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets"
Thank you, Germany. We appreciate this move, we believe it was not an easy decision. Every helmet counts!
Feeling sarcastic today?
They had to emphasize it twice. Lol
I get that this is seen as ridiculous, because it sort of is, but this is essentially a game of god cop, bad cop. Germany lets others send the guns, in order to keep some sort of relationship with Russia alive and therefore exert greater influence on them by diplomacy.
@@zhongxina9569 still waiting for Germany to send coffins for Ukrainian fascists
It was Ukraine that asked for these helmets, what a nonsense. And why is only Germany cristised? France and Italy deliver also no weapons, there's a serious anti German bias in Anglo Saxon media!
So this didn't age well...
I think everybody overestimated Russia, including Russia.
The issue with it being a bluff is that it would cost Russia a lot, western countries would still increase their efforts and diversify gas suppliers because they saw how vulnerable they were.
You my friend our a Chess Master
How then do you explain Nordstream 2 then?
@@RandMantearTheDragon he means that if putin backs down that would still make the west reconsider it's gas supplier. possibly making them reconsider nordstream 2
@@texoraptor112 from I have seen out the US and UE that seems more wishful then realistic. But yeah hopefully the west becomes less reliant on Russia.
The issue is that, even if Russia does nothing the west will somehow react, this may push Russia to actually do invade Ukraine.
This didn’t age well
Germany did NOT withdraw their diplomats. But it does cover the costs for the families of the diplomats to get out of there.
Which is way smarter... Watching media in the last weeks makes you think UK and USA actually want a war to happen. Germany is at least keeping some form of diplomacy alive
@@maximiliantschuchnig154 Not trying to push a conspiracy, but it seems ironic that the Anglo Saxons are the most belligerent actors from a Western perspective? A good question is: Why would that be?
@@maximiliantschuchnig154Bit naive. If russia suddenly invades commercial flights will either be stopped or sold out. The military forces can't go into ukraine to get them out as going into ukraine is a provocation. The more diplomats families in the country the more leverage Russia could have.
@@mcr2356 That may be true but talking about the topic as if it was already war is exactly my problem. If you remove all your diplomats you give the impression that war is much closer than it (hopefully) is. But I agree, if russia really invades this comment was very naive of me. I just think if the west calms down a bit it gives russia less reason to invade.
@@maximiliantschuchnig154 it's because both of those countries have a policy of trying to unite their countries politically against foreign enemies. Johnson and Biden both want an external foe to show that they are strong leaders, while Germany is a more Pacifistic and practical country and for obvious reasons doesent really want a war between nuclear armed nations to happen.
4:20 Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets. Although, Germany did recently send them 5000 helmets.
Stroke
Not a coincidence it's at 420
Although, Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets.
Very interesting to watch this video 70+ days into the invasion.
Funny seeing this more than half a year into the invasion
Now they've released the video "Will Ukraine invade Russia" 😂
Aged like cheese
As a guy born to the Czech speaking parents in the Sudeten, I want to cry.
Yes, Putin is using Hitler's excuse for invasion.
Don't worry, the thing Russia's doing to Ukraine, Ukraine has been doing to its western neighbors. They Stole land from slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and oppressed the minorities very harshly.
@@catalyst772 May I ask what year Ukraine invaded Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Romania?
@@catalyst772 Well, not really. Stalin was the one to do that. We can see the consequences of this today, but the Ukrainians aren't responsible.
@@catalyst772 Mind you that the areas Ukraine obtained from Slovakia, Poland and Romania were majority Ukrainian speaking, Stalin used this excuse to annex them into the Soviet Union.
I still think that the primary objective of this troop buildup was to extract political concessions from Ukraine and NATO. The threat must be credible for that to achieve. The key objective was most likely to block any NATO membership of Ukraine and turn it into a neutral buffer state. As the US and NATO have now so firmly rebuffed this, other options may have become more likely. Painting the situation as absolutely dire and showing Russia in a most unfavourable light in order to win support for their stern response to Russian demands, the US and NATO might have pushed the Russian government into a corner where they either
1) back down and acknowledge their diplomatic and strategic defeat
2) raise the stakes by building up more troops
3) take some military action after provoking the Ukrainians into firing the first shot.
I still think that 2) is the most likely option, followed by 3)
4) Backing down with the West helping Putin to save face, propaganda will do the rest
I really don't understand the idea of preventing Ukraine joining NATO by essentially threatening an invasion. In fact this likely would do the opposite with Ukraine wanting to join even faster and the West possibly moving towards it more quickly once the dust settles. What is even more Worrying for Russia is that Sweden and Finland now are actually more likely to join NATO than ever before, this after refusing for decades. If they'd join NATO has another way of threatening Russia's second largest city in case of war and could lock down the baltic sea much more strongly.
The Russians told NATO and the United States in 2008 after the Bucharest statement on Ukrainian & Georgian membership it was not acceptable. When the Georgians attacked the Russians that year and thought NATO would defend them Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia and crushed them. So Russia’s current position on Ukraine should not be a surprise to anyone. The military industrial complex needs a war to make money so conflict with Russia is what is needed
3) Ukraine is already punishing Russian speaking population, Russia is using this as an excuse, a valid one at that, after the CIA coup the fascist leadership has been very harsh on the Russian Ukranians, hence why Crimeans wanted to leave Ukraine. He will most likely take the Russian parts of Ukraine and halt at that, Belurus got his back so Ukraine is pretty much surrounded, Russia tested their s500 system in Syria with great success last year so they will have air superiority, all in all a win win for Russia, stronger diplomatic relations with China, no need for swift, China can take Russian coal, gas and Oil which is a better option and let the EU freeze and get the population against them. He might also connect with transnistria, although hard to do, possible and would grant him a strategic location. In the end the EU needs Russia more than Russia needs the EU.
This is just a surface distraction they are, have been and will continue to be clearing out the 2nd largest and oldest D.U.M.B. of the deep state. This is their last true support center. Next you will see Russia building up on the Israel border to finish the clean up. Plan warp speed almost over
This aged poorly
Correction: Sweden is not a NATO state (as is implicated in the clip ), though the country is part of EU. Finland has the same status.
Sweden and Finland do cooperate with NATO and has observatory seats in NATO.
@@Soundbrigade So does Russia and Belarus. You see where I'm getting at ;)
@@nikolajbrdbk628 no they dont, nato was literally made in opposition of russia and her allies
Forgot to add that Sweden is one of the most strongest countries in Europe. Russia must fear them long time ago
@@dragomiloje909 Sweden and Russia are traditional enemies.
"Nah guys, I got this piece of paper here that guarantees peace in our time."
god your so clever. and you know history.. wow.......but why not actually quote something?
This curdled like fucking milk. Lmao
It's quite odd that the UK government is actively blocking sanctions on the 50 or so oligarchs that have been flagged as Putin's money holders, who also happen to own quite a lot of London property and donate heavily to the Conservative party.
It seems you explained your comment just fine there
You know what else is odd? Germany sending Ukraine 5,000 helmets aswell as Germany sending them 5,000 helmets aswell
Yeah.. economic entanglement is such a double edged sword in this case. Russia got a lot of political influence in the UK/US/DE spheres via 'investment opportunities' which can either stabilize or destabilize things depending on how targeted they are.
It’s not odd, it’s classic Tory cronyism
he probably was in a downing street party. Sue Grey just wanst able to talk to him
Thanks for mentioning the helmets twice. I always forget about stuff like that.
I appreciate that you mentioned tipping of "pro western/eastern" balance in ukrainian politics in favour of the west. Large portion of pro eastern areas in Ukraine are now destroyed, depopulated or annexed and this will probably not change. Rump part of eastern ukraine can no longer affect ukrainian politics efficiently. There is also strong shift of perception towards nato in ukraine, from indecision towards clearly pro NATO. As for me i think and hope war wont escalate (it's already ongoing since 2014 although on low level)
Yeah. I think anexing Crimea was not a good strategic move from Putin's part. It is normal to expect, that when you attack another country, they will seek your enemies for aid. It was stupid to antagonize Ukraine. Atleast so it seems on surface.
Who knows what the actualy calculation was. Putin has the advantage of his secret service agancies and spies, that we don't. I suspect he had some strong evidence of losing Sevastopol and Ukraine joining the NATO being an inevitable outcome. In that case, it makes sense to make sure at least the strategic port stays in Russian hands. That would be my guess at least.
@@Member_zero Good points, loosing Sevastopol is just not an option, but invading Crimea when it is part of the NATO is not an option either.
@@Member_zero Twice in a row, a man who advocated peace became president in Ukraine and after that they quickly became warmongers. The country is not governed by the opinion of the people, otherwise the "revolution" would never have happened there, because even 50% of official polls never supported it.
Ukraine is now a purely American puppet. And every year more and more useless and problematic puppet. A huge amount of money needs to be spent on this country and it is absolutely useless for containing Russia. Ukraine will not be able to create anything other than a possible conflict between Russia and NATO, but it will not really help in the war with Russia.
But if NATO so wants a conflict with Russia, then you can always find other reasons. You can use the Baltic countries for this.
To say that this was a fatal mistake, because now in Ukraine they do not like Putin is simply ridiculous. Crimea is the only important strategic part of Ukraine.
@@Littlereaper558 I did not say this was a "fatal mistake". You missread or missunderstood my post. Because I implied, that, while it may SEEM this way, because he would take a lot of pro-Russian supporters out of Ukraine, it might not be, because he may be out of options.
I also suggested, that your reasoning is possible. So we actualy agree. However, as I do not have the details, I could not confirm it. I can't make claims about something I don't know. If you are correct, and you know more, then it makes sense - and I actualy would wish to thank you for clarification, and that my suspicion was correct.
Also - just to clarify. I am also not taking any sides in this. Or rather - I will keep that for myself, and you can regard me as having a neutral stance. So I won't claim, who is right and who is wrong. I am also distancing myself from any moral or ethical opinions. I wish only to observe the geopolitical strategy as it happens.
Id rather be pure american puppet then russian one. Look you have north korea - russian created and backed puppet and south korea - american puppet. So anyday american useless puppet
You explained the options quite well. Thank you, TLDR !
Prepare for massive push for renewables and grid upgrades to rock through Europe. As much as the prospect of a war is awful it will kick start the transformation since coal, gas and petroleum will be off the menu for Europe. Now it is time to invest in most promising companies in the renewable energy sector.
We need to re-introduce nuclear power. It's not the 80s anymore
i would agree if not for the relatively recent discovery of a massive underwater gas field in the med, also there is plenty accessible via ship what europe lack is the ground infrastracture to re distribute it from the hubs on the coast, so i would think a mix of the two options is more likely: some more renewable investment and expansion of domestic (eu) gas infrastracture with a shift towards wouthern europe and world wide shipping gas reserves
Countries like Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact members been saying "you can't trust Russia even in business" since 1990s...
@@tkg__ Interested they do not say as well any about Marshall Plan funds and such.
Good work
It's hard to find final conclusions. The problem is that everything is possible disregarding the possibility of getting real.
From the western media coverage it looks like Russia is less likely to invade - for now. But one wrong statement could make every gameplay irrelevant.
Before Russian troops entered Crimea, no-one would predict that, so predictions are of little value with Putin. My equally useless guess is that even Putin doesn't have a set plan, but is rather negotiating with China. Without China's support, Russia's economy would crumble with next invasion
This russian threat of war is not mainly for ukraine but to intice germany to approve nord 2 so that germany will have some illusion of "leverage" over russia.
@@netiturtle I cannot say that this analysis is very professional.I could recommend you Alexander Mercouris and The Duran.There are more interesting information.
@@netiturtle Russia have reserves 3 times of Ukraine gdp for comparison.
@@ekaterinaantropova1958 Mercouris is very informed. I highly recommend Pepe Escobar, one of the best analists out there.
3 weeks makes so much of a difference 22 02 2022
That prediction was wrong
It's a little weird assumption that if Russians want to have friendly neighbourly relations they won't invade. 'Friendly neighbourly relations' in Russian dictionary translates into 'Total submission and entrance into our sphere of influence'. Russia maintained very 'friendly' relations with Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia after WWII. And it's obvious none of them would like to return to that kind of affairs.
Well you cant beat relations with neighbours who dont exist
Well Turkey has at least a cordial relations and we didnt submitted them. They won the WW2 and governments in exile or the remmenants have no real power on their land. USA also created a spehere of influence and we knew examples like Chile or Cuba suffered because of rejection of this spehere. This politics not the ethic.
As a Hungarian I can confirm what you said holds true.
Russia didn't exist after ww2 untill 1991.
@@TheBarca1889 The Ruskies DOMINATED the Soviet Union. Nothing happened without the approval of Moscow. So yes, quite understandable all of the Eastern Bloc countries blame Russia for what happened betwee 1945-1991.
So Germany's helpful reaction: we won't send any weapons, but we'll send them some nice metal hats to wear while Russian tanks are rolling into Kyiv.
They need helmets, money not spent on helmets could be spent elsewhere.
Ukraine did ask the west for things like helmets and body armour
Since WW2 Germany has a strong pacifist streak, especially on the political center left (which is in power right now). That's why they won't send weapons. But you can't kill anybody with a helmet, seems to be the reasoning. Same reason why during the Vietnam war, when the U.S. asked Germany to help, Germany refused to send soldiers, but they send doctors and nurses and medical equipment.
@@Sir_Budginton Yeah, but when it's mentioned without context, it just sounds ridiculous ahahah
Exactly. To gamer friends i usually explain it like this:
In a game of counter strike, if you have 4000$, you get your Kevlar vest + helmet + a machine pistol.
If you have 4000$ and vest+helmet already provided, you get an assault rifle.
Sending "non lethal aid" still helps. Still helps in defense, and still helps to increase lethality. (Which makes the principle of "non lethal aid only" kind of pointless, in my opinion)
Well, this didn't age well.
This aged like fine wine
Timing and surprise will be key factors. You get attacked when someone thinks you've let your guard down. His options remain open, even if the probability of invasion is much lower than non-invasion. He's already accomplished some goals, for example discouraging a Ukrainian military push into Donbas and causing anxiety within Ukraine--if it generates open political and social fractures, that may be a likely trigger point.
We live in the era of spy satellites. The Americans watch every move that the Russians make in that area. So surprise is off the table and frankly not needed in this case.
A Ukrainian military takeover of the Donbas was a non starter from the beginning, even if some hot heads in Kiev were confident it was a great idea, not only gives the perfect excuse to the Russians for a Casus belli in eastern Ukraine but it would also diminish support for Kiev among Europeans.
jorge you are an armchair general. go back to playing war games on your computer, you maybe getting excited but this is a actual reality and real people will get hurt if there is an escalation in conflict, I am sure the NATO generals dont need your tactical advice, maybe you should have a closer look at what is actually happening rather than using your wonderful experience to tell us that we get attacked when we let our guard down. as for your "if it generates open political and social fractures, that may be a likely trigger" point. do you know anything about Ukraine? errr there are "Open political and social fractures" they have a civil war going on.. how much more open & fractured do you want?
@@Howleye Stalin moved ethnic russians into Ukraine after Stalin killed 10 Million Ukrainians by Holodomor and so empty villages and empty houses. Russians in Ukraine still love Stalin. So why shouldn't Ukraine occuppy its own territory and EXPEL traitorous Russian population? Putin can build them Russians some houses in Siberia and train them to fight the chinese.
It's more like there is a cease-fire agreement that Ukraine abides by (not crossing into certain areas or using certain weapons) but Russia regularly ignores such as with the BUK that downed the MH17. Recently, Ukraine let one of its drones fire a missile from outside the no-go area and destroyed a Russian artillery piece or possibly a GRAD (MLRS or Stalin Organ) that was prohibited by the cease-fire agreement to even be in the area. Putin had kittens ...
Those pushing the "protecting ethnic Russians" narrative should know that many in this "mistreated minority" have come to see themselves as Ukrainians foremost and support the journey westwards to EU and NATO.
I really appreciate your work and I know that it is very hard producing videos like this, but I think it is time for you to invest into a proof-reader or proof watcher.
There were again some errors in this video, 4:23 two times the same line, 7:42 "a steep drop in Russian attitudes towards Russia"
I don't want to be the grammar nazi here, I just think it would look more professional. Love your work, guys.
Lol I thought no-one else clocked onto this..
They 100% need a proof reader
2x 5000 helmets = 10 000 helmets no?😂🤔
Also 10:05, "geopolitical stratgy".
I hope little errors like this are just simple oversights by a small, overworked staff and not examples of their thoroughness generally.
Yea man, TLDR has been having so many of these typos, word misplacements or straight up wrong country flags.
It's like do they even read some of the shit they create?
It's clear that they're prioritizing quantity over quality.
Great video, wonderfully done . Thank you
this video hasn't aged well, has it now...
aged like milk
4:30 this is incorrect. The Croatian president stated that, and our PM and foreign ministry refuted and confirmed that the president's statement is false
Missed the videos were you looked at both sides of an argument, as you used to. Nice video!
The other view is something like "NATO is aggressive and Ukraine is Nazis which should not be sovereign"
@@daniel931016 NATO is aggressive. Ukraine is nationalist. Not that that's a bad thing.
@@krishivagarwal5189 NATO is defensive. USA might be aggressive but NATO is a defense alliance, not an attack alliance.
@@daniel931016 NATO does a play on words by expanding its countries eastward by getting membership for those countries and donating a fuckton of missiles there.
@@krishivagarwal5189 it is donating to NATO members because they have all signed a contract to protect each other according to Article 5. The reason why some of them donate to Ukraine is because individual countries choose to.
Aged like milk
About that...
I hope that the politicians will solve this crisis in a mature way. So without starting another military conflict. It is the common citizen who suffers the most during a war. Innocent men, women and children. Ordinary people, who just want to build a normal life. We really should avoid a conflict.
Not sure the Kremlin gives one shit about the common man, especially when they are Ukrainians.
NATO should be limited then
@@sinoroman Russia should piss off, I think you mean.
Actually, the EU (mostly Macron) and putin agreed that we should not fight
Great video! One friendly suggestion would be to avoid plosive sounds by angling your mic a bit off axis. Otherwise it can get distracting.
well this didnt age well
this didnt age well
Haha 4:20 "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets..."--"Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets..."
[TLDR .exe has stopped responding] 😅
Well this aged badly and very soon.
This is literally the Cuba situation during the Cold war.
And Cuba situation wasn't with Russia?
@@TomaszJegorow You make a good point, I will admend my comment, brain fart.
It's so facinating watching this on hindsight
I think the mic settings are a bit off
4:22 So that's 10000 helmets in total! Thanks Germany!
Well that was a fucking lie
This guy is not a professional military analyst
Thank yo ușo much for your thorough analysis. You don't jsut report facts. You put them into context and present them within a broader view. That's what national newspapers should do!
This is the first more or less actually objective video you've made on this issue and I applaud your for it.
Not really, just a tamer propoganda.
It was proven time and time again that most channels talking about Russia growing their forces in the rigeon use old pics from Georgian conflict, or just show Russias regular mayor base that was always located some 500 km away from Ukraine, and is primarally based there in case turks decide to start some shit.
IF Russia would want to invade, they would have prepared a force on the northern bodred of Ukraine instead of the eastern one - its closest to Ukraine capical, easier terrain to navigate(for tanks), no need to bother donbas/ukraine fortified borders, and you can even ask for donbas cooperation during invasion, meaning, if they go on offense Ukraine will be force to draw more troops to the border prior said invasion, and you can hammer them all at once from two sides.
I am waiting to comment "this didn't age well"🤣
Never say never. Just invaded.
What baffles me is even if it were a bluff, they’ve constructed field hospitals and transported blood supplies and military supplies near the border, and who knows what else they’ve got going on near the border. Isn’t that a little bit too much money for just a bluff ??
There was no bluff bacause there was no plan to invade Ukraine. This invasion was made up by Western media
@@timur43378 Yeah, of course. Those troops set up at the border are just cardboard cutouts. And i guess Russia didn't deny anything because it wants to damage its economy and risk international backlash? How smart of them.
@@alexxans1154 >Near the border
Aren't they actually 250 km from Ukrainian border?
That is the point of a good bluff, to make it seem real. Why make a bluff if people gonna know you're bluffing? Kind of pointless.
@@alexxans1154 Russia deny planning to invade. Putin and many other officials clearly says many times that there are no such plans. Situation is more complicated than you think. Your media don't tell details so you get twisted picture of situation.
Troops are near not to invade but to prevent Ukraine and US from provocation.
I think we should remember that when you want to attack, you don’t try to attract much attention to your actions. There was no explicit preparation for invasion in Georgia, in Crimea. Did anyone say a word about suspicious battalions on the borders then? Russian army is capable to leap to Ukrainian borders from their usual positions in a day (like there was in Georgia). There is no military strategic sense in coming a bit closer to your potential enemy and wait.
Nah Georgia is a small insignificant country in am area basically controlled by Russia. Ukraine is big, in an area with a lot of western presence who's military power is a lot greater than Georgia and thus requires a stronger and more noticeable invasion.
They where kind enough to let American's state that Russia would commit a blitzkrieg...............................im sure blitzkriegs where faster than that!
Hmm. I remember differently. There was plenty of Russian military training and forewarning ahead of time in both cases. For a potential war on this scale, there no chance to hide military preparations.
Well, Russia is probably one of the most closely monitored countries on Earth, monitored by satellites from NATO states (and most probably China too), most of them probably being US high tech satellites, boasting also infra red and other gimmicks we possibly don't know about.
Even if they would've moved and attacked Ukraine within 24 or 48 hours, they probably would've been discovered moving these troops and mobilizing nonetheless.
I remember Ukraine and Crimea situation in 2014 and yes there was unease and tension about the activity in the area at the time. The issue was that the people were very enigmatic. The troops were not identifiable, dressed in all black, and either lied or never told explicitgly why they were there,
This didn't age well
Interesting analysis given what we know now.
I'm quite liking the West's response to this in the arena of military build-up. Slowly adding forces rather than sending a massive force over - gives Russia time to see it happening without it looking too aggressive.
@Marcus De jong They've only sent Javelins and Stinger missiles because they are easy to operate, and doesn't require lots of training, which considering the worry of imminent invasion, weapons that could be immediately used are more important, but if things don't kick up it is likely that they will be selling more complex weapon systems to Ukraine in the future
@Marcus De jong Stingers, and personnel to provide training on them, have been sent. MANPADS are very defensive weapons; they can only be used if Russia invades
Seems aggressive to me
@@ilo3456 Sell weapons to someone to destruct their own country even more, when they live on humanitarian help already.Guess they buy this weapons with USA depts, end become more depend to Big Brother.
Don't forget highly successful drones from Turkey.
When Germany sent 5000 helmets to Ukraine, was it not in violation of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact?
Wut
That pact was violated years ago
@@prion42 r/woosh
Expired some 75 years ago
The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact should be annulled and restore the south-western section ( Cetatea Alba and Ismail) from Ukraine back to Moldova.
Yep.
This didnt age well.
I wish I knew about this channel earlier. SO well done, can't wait to see the other content. Is there TLDR content worldwide by region?
There are TLDR News (main), TLDR News Global, and TLDR News US
@@NityaStriker and this channel
What is a TLDR?
@@Apollo-ok5sq TL;DR is an acronym for Too Long; Didn't Read
@@vsiegel Ah, okay. Thanks for replying.
Watching this at 1.25x speed makes this (and other videos from the channel) a much better video
To be honest, 1,25 speed makes most videos better, everywhere.
Dont aged well.
Croatian here, Croatia didnt announced it will recall its troups, the president said that which has not much influence on anything. President comands the military but only in case of war, in case of foreign assistance and missions the parlament decides that and the prime minister and parlament dont side with the president on that one.
thank you for the additional info
Interresting. It seemed like such a uncharacteristic move for Croatia, to back down against Russian agression... after all, since Russia was always backing the Serbians, Croatia and Russia don't have a very close relationship.
@@jxg1652 well, we are simply tired from what happened and croats and Serbs share the same blood. Besides we would gain more from russian than NATO. Not counting the EU in this deal
@@markobucevic8991 I disagreee... nobody gains from russians.
I talked about russians with some ukrainians few weeks ago, they were visiting some friends of mine here and we hanged out together a lot.
They and everybody they know is against russian influence on their country. They want to get closer to EU, they want corruption to be eliminated from their country and have a normal European lives, like we do in Croatia a lot more since we joined the EU.
@@markobucevic8991 Seems similar to what happened between France and Germany. After centuries of punching each other in the face we figured we'll both just end up with smashed faces. Plus some common history (Karl the great, Kingdom of the Franks etc).
Hopefully Croatia and Serbia can enter the same path.
What I don't understand from your post - how would Croatia gain more from Russia than from Nato membership???
Great video! Can you cover what’s happening in Kazakhstan and how it might relate to Ukraine?
According to China Insights this is a coup by Tokayev to get rid of former president Nazerbayev. Tokayev's move is supported by Russia, because Nazerbayev was getting to close to China for Russia's comfort. That also might explain why Tokayev is democratizing the Qazaq government as reported by the Eurasian Times by not linking all power to just one person (a so called depersonalization). For now, he has the intentions to reevaluate his own role at the end of this year when he has kicked out the old guard related to Nazerbayev by a younger generation. Maybe he has to ask Putin permission to stay in power, it might be something else. I've no clue.
If China for whatever reason is going to retaliate for this move by Putin, Putin has to move back troops to Kazakhstan. Then he definitely can't invade Ukraine.
This depersonalization is actually reminding me of Putin when changing the Russian constitution. Putin has set up the system in such a way than when he dies, the power of the president is going to be reduced to make sure a civil war is going to break out among the oligarchs.
I can explain. President Tokayev basically used this unrest to purge the remaining clan of Nazarbaev and exited the two-vector approach of their economy. The country now has closer ties to Russia and China. The only relation to Ukraine was that Ukraine officially supported the "protestors" and even tried to fuel the conflict.
I like the fact you plainly stated you obviously don’t know before going on, that’s genuine
So is that 5 thousand or 10 thousand helmets?
4:24 you repeated yourself 😅
so, 10,000 helmets
Low effort is seen
This did not age well
This is looking more and more of a dire situation
4:24 you said the 5000 helmets sentence twice. Gave me a nice chuckle in the middle of being sad of the sombre situation.
So germany sent them 10,000 helmets
Like your videos, but found a small error. At 0:40 it shows an arrow indicating western troops, but the arrow suggest they are in in Belarus. That is not true of course. Other than that, keep up the good work!
I don't see why people would say, this video is wrong. First of all it didn't actually predict that Putin would or wouldn't invade. But most importantly it perfectly predicted the consequences of an invasion for Russia and that it was a bad strategic idea!
Well, this video didn't age well, as of last night..
Nice video, surprises me that there is still high quality media without propaganda
This is high quality? This is no better than me speculating based on what I see in other media, it's not like they've done any of their own research, not to mention many things they said were factually and verifiably correct, such as the lack of talks about this in Russian media, as Russians themselves can testify. If you think this is high quality media you're a lost cause
@@ararune3734 then show me any better media, if you come up with bbc or cnn you can delete yourself
@@yunus1352 Is that my job? I don't think so. What a weird comment. If others are trash it doesn't mean this one is any better, it literally regurgitates trash from the very media you're bashing now. Both equal trash
Everything I don't like is propaganda.
The Ukraine must have been very relieved to hear that Italy wasn’t sending any troops.
Don' think WW2, think WW1.
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo where they abandoned their initial allies then got stuck in the mountains for 4 years? Much better...
@@UnholyWrath3277 Italian victories made Ludendorff having 'the sensation of defeat for the first time'.
The treaty they had with Germany and K.u.K. was a defensive treaty only. In case K.u.K or Germany attacked, Italy had no obligations.
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo ya against the utterly incompetent Austrians lol and many of those still took 14-15 attempts on the same ridges
@@UnholyWrath3277 yeah, it's a pitty they hadn't you as their commander.
This aged well.
We will see.
I come from the future, don't listen to this guy.
this has aged like fine milk
"any moment now the Russians will invade......any moment now.........any moment"
This is the one time I am sad to say:
This aged well
It's so weird looking at it from time perspective
This aged so well
I think the question depends of what the West will do. If they act cautionless, showing something like I am sure he will invade. At the opposite, the more strong measures they will take the more Russia will look for diplomatic options.
Imagine making one small mistake you dont even notice then your whole comment section is blasting about it
I have never been so scared for my life ever before
If the answer is he will, in part, Putin may be waiting for the ground to be frozen enough for tanks to have maximum advantage in the terrain. If so, that may be a week to a month away.
David Appleby .. I can’t believe you are so naive to think that modern war is dependent on soil frozen .. lol 😂.. in Syria was it even one tank used by Russians ? Gosh no need even to go their physically .. modern sophisticated weapons are able to shoot any targets on large distances ..
@@juliaholloway1183 He mobilized some of his armored divisions. Additionally, Russian doctrine relies (like most major powers) on quick armored spearheads. His generals want to minimize losses so they'll use their most potent means of quickly defeating and encircling Ukrainian formations.
Finally, if there's any nation that knows how to fight on the Eastern Front, it's Russia.
@@VindicAlpha I thing Ukraine army is not stupid enough to get this fight and die for free, its all TV propagand.Even 10-20% will go to Russian side and disorder will be full.Lets no saying Russia control air total, comunication and almost everything, this javelins hit tanks in short range is a joke, tanks will be used just to mark territory, not for real fight.
@@juliaholloway1183 Note I said for tanks to have maximum advantage. Syria is a different case, less chance of getting stuck in mud and no chance of driving over deeply frozen water.
@@VindicAlpha to stop Ukraine Russia won’t even need to move to its territory .. Russia knows targets ( Russia has satellites and intelligence ) .. it will just shoot from Russian territory on proper targets ..with rockets Like Kalibr.. it will be more than enough to stop Ukraine and disarm them .. Russia also has laser weapons Peresvet which can burn anything on its way .. in the air and ground, Russia has powerful drones that can shoot targets ( were used in Syria successfully), at last Russia has hypersonic weapons on its planes ( kingal ) .. why would it need to use tanks ? Modem wars are not fought with tanks
"A steep drop in Russian attitudes to Russia" at 7:42
that matured well
YES hope!
the arms hypocrisy of germany is at its finest
What is hypocritical?
I'm surprised that you haven't even mentioned the flotilla of Russian ships just off the South West Coast of Ireland, inside eez
Russia thinks it can get away with provoking small countries like Ireland. It's important that the EU stand with Ireland.
All gingers will be destroyed......they have no souls.