Grading My Best and Worst Stock Analysis
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- čas přidán 25. 07. 2024
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An important part of doing stock analysis is to go back and see how your analysis turned out, especially for stocks that you didn’t actually buy. Otherwise, how will you know if you made a good decision or not? In this video we revisit 4 stocks that I analyzed in 2023 to see what I said, what the business is doing now, and how it turned out.
00:00 Revisiting Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
04:14 Revisiting Croc’s (CROX)
07:02 Revisiting Nike (NKE)
10:46 Revisiting Disney (DIS)
*I am not a licensed professional or a financial advisor. This content should not be taken as financial advice. It is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. All opinions and perspectives are based on my own personal financial situation, experiences, and goals. Please ensure that you do your own due diligence before making financial decisions and/or meet with a professional. Links above include affiliate links, which means I may receive a commission at no additional cost to you.
A+ for doing this video!
Other people would have deleted the mistakes rather than reflect on them
So true!
Yes this is exactly why I watched this video. He helped me pick Texas road house at 101$
I respect your willingness to self-assess
Thanks!
Going back to evaluate and learn from mistakes and victories tells a lot to me! Congrats and keep smiling more in your videos, you have many good reasons for doing so! Well done, Matt!
Thank you!
Great video, always good to revisit our past decisions. I'd be curious to see you revisit your Starbucks sell decision in a year or 2.
Thanks, agreed that will be an interesting one. I know people are dunking on me because it’s up 15% or whatever but I wouldn’t be surprised if it trended back down after this bounce. We’ll see though, that’s one where I actually like the core business but everything else turned bad (IMO of course)
Excellent!! This kind of video is very helpful. Thanks
Awesome, glad it helped!
good review. I like how you admit mistakes. I like your videos. I like your explanations for your buys and sells even though I might not agree with them
Thanks, much appreciated!
I love the transparency. I will admit I was also wrong on Texas roadhouse as well but its not the type of company I invest in so I am okay with missing out on the insane gains.
very useful video. Learn a lot from your analysis. Your presenting style is very engaging!
Thank you!
As always, loving the vids man
Thanks!
Great video!
Str8 shooter
Always enjoy your content!
Thank you!
I’m pumped for this video! Like 85 here, just about to begin watching. I’m interested and excited to see what you said about these various stocks. I’m really enjoying your content and the frequency of your videos! thanks for your hard work, honesty, and your style.
Thank you, much appreciated!
Relatable.. thank-you for the video!
No worries!
I love this format. Very courageous and transparent of you to do this kind of grading. Whether A+ or F, we all learn some lessons.👍
Thanks, much appreciated
Always appreciate your honesty! 👍🏼
Thank you, much appreciated!
LOVE CROX!! Definitely a buy for me! Great vids 👍
Thanks!
love this format. Great video. I bought TXRH at 94 during the dip. The main reason, I personally enjoy the business. Great service and good food.
Very nice! I’m a big fan of their product as well, we just went there lol
K
Matt I was curious, how come you don't analyze smaller companies generally? Also, I love your content, it's part of what built my interest in analysis! :)
I will sometimes (CROX was one, I looked at WT recently too) but usually I like mid to large cap companies. In general I don’t look at a company unless they are profitable (operating income > 0) and a lot of the small caps tend to not be profitable yet, at least the ones with good growth potential.
That’s just my approach, it means I will miss out on getting into a company early but I’ll also miss investing in a lot of companies that never become profitable. Just my approach though
Congrats on the video! Very good idea to look back and learn from.
I personally agree with all your evaluations and also with your decisions to not buy because it did not feel right for you.
As Nvidia investors we will get spoiled because they hit so many good points it will be hard buying other businesses because they will look weak (moat, growth, profit margin, leadership etc)
lol yes NVDA has been a fun ride so far, it’s been pretty crazy and even with how high the price is going I know they’re so good as company. It’s nuts
Very good analysis, May be you didn’t but Crocs cos your Dog didn’t liked it , i always like your personal touch to everything 😂😂
Thanks!
Matt, congratulations on your LULU prediction. Thank you.
It was nice to see LULU report good earnings, wish I would’ve had cash last week to add more sub-$300 but oh well
Good Video.
Thanks!
You’re the best Matt, I’m a beginner investor and I really appreciate your content
Thanks! Glad it’s helpful
A+ for your American Express analysis.
Nice! Yes that one worked out very well
Really like the way you challenge your investment ideas even though it hurts. I did buy Crocs (and that is how I found your channel today) and I‘m up 65%, I have my own pain point and that is NVidia which I sold at a bit above $220… and why? Because it doesn‘t pay a dividend and my idea was to switch to dividend paying stocks. See, my way was correct with Crocs after I understood that my NVIDIA decision was as bad as it could be
We're always learning!
@@mattderron you won another follower ;)
Good for you in doing this. Remember, you cant buy or hold everything. I know you own NVDA, and you did better on that one that TXRH.
For sure, I'm at 12 holdings now and I feel like it's a lot. Yes NVDA has been fun so far. I'm sure that will be a wild one both up and down 🤪
So, time for you to start a position in DIS, TXRH, CROX? 😁
Mostly kidding, I think your point at 12:02 was absolutely right. You don’t want to buy something you have doubts about, even if those doubts don’t seem to be playing out.
Hey Man , really nice video ! I was wondering if I could help you with more Quality Editing in your videos and also make a highly engaging Thumbnail and also help you with the overall youtube strategy and growth ! Pls let me know what do you think ?
Matt, I had been watching/studying LULU for the past month, 500+ to 300?? Seemed a bit much? but have to admit your deep analysis from a few weeks ago convinced me to dip in the old money bags for 20 shares at 298.00. if you lived in California I'd treat you to a steak, well with the prices here... A cheeseburger. Good call on your part😄
Nice! Yes I missed adding more to LULU sub-$300 because I didn't have available cash in my account, otherwise that's what I would've bought.
Honestly that one wasn't even that hard - they've been well run and their outlook for the year was still strong (going to talk about all of this in my Friday btw) but for whatever reason the market was just selling it like crazy. Then all the weird articles and CNBC interviews talking about how they're losing market share...but without any real data.
Not sure what's going on there, but was glad to hear the report good earnings. Congrats on picking some up at a great price, glad it worked (at least so far) for you!
@@mattderron I have been built up a partial position on LULU with a average price of low 330's. I like the company's consistency and China growth.
So is Nike a buy now at $75?
Not for me. The issues with the business are still there IMO (slowing growth outlook) that I don' t really care what price it's trading at. But I don't use valuation as a primary consideration (it's secondary to the business outlook and operations)
Disney is an easy buy at this price!
I hadn’t looked at it again until this video, was interesting to see where they are at now
like i said your leading your subscribers down a bad path. you are not a investor. you are a trader and this is proven with amount of buy and sells you been doing over the months. I would NOT follow this guy if your new.
😂 you're back! Keep looking out for those people I'm supposedly leading down a bad path. I'm guessing you didn't watch this video then? lol
Compared to who on YT? The people that seem to be advocating Yieldmax ETFs? Or those like "Meet Kevin" who are always trying to sell something like an expensive course.
I don't know Matt. Never met him, likely never will. But I can tell you from the videos of his I have watched his analysis is sound. And while sometimes I do disagree with him. He certainly is worth the time I spend watching his videos. He is so much better than the majority of stuff I see here. Of course he is not a "god" don't just worhsip him or do something because he says to.
@@mattderron don’t worry they always end up denying the facts. Just like every other “finance CZcamsr” you are exactly the same. Always defensive
@@buyerclub2 he’s new to CZcams. Once he starts get a bigger following he will just end up another CZcamsr who gets heated when someone calls them out
I don’t know who hurt you man but I hope you find peace. I’m just a guy who likes stocks sharing my process and results and trying to help other who feel like they can learn something from me or are simply entertained with watching. Take care
Alright, you ask for it!
Texas (F). I would not be so hard on yourself, especially because the restaurant industry is a high failure industry. So I have little confidence in these companies. To me that has a lot of weight factor in the equation. I would say that the risk is even still there for the exact reasons you mentioned in your analysis a year ago.
So for me it is a "D".
Crocks (B-). As an investor not a trader, I see crocks as a fad (a niche) type of product. I agree for the right investor it could be a buy but as you said this one is not for me. Another Co. will come and have a fun funcky product that everyone will want for a few years and dethrone Crocks, Like, are you still wearing a fanny pack?
So for me "B-" is a fair assessment.
Nike (A). That is a though one for me because Nike is one of those companies where I draw a line in the sand for ethical reasons. Not paying their workers (using sweatshop labor), Michael Vick scandal, and doubling down with the 2003 dog fight advertising, etc (I could go back to the 1990s with their scandals). I can't, I just can't imagine having Nike stock. Strictly as an investor, I agree with your analysis, other brands are slowly chipping away at them and the Michael Jordan association is getting old. Their business model is not innovative anymore, their cost is likely to continue increasing, etc.
So for me it is a "A" analysis.
Disney (A+). As we chatted about last August. I love Disney's assets, I love how dynamic the new CEO is, I love that they are getting back on track. They are big enough to weather the DeSantis nightmare. I also like that the Disney brand is doing exactly what Iger said it would do and is pretty much getting the predicted/promised results, that suggest a competent management team! I love that I own stock at a very attractive price.
So for me it is a "B" maybe a "C" evaluation (sorry!)
.
"Your analysis can be right at a time" here is a thought, how about including a timeline when you make predictions, like "to me if this stock does not improve from my evaluation in the next 'x' amount of months, it will be a sell", that way we could amuse ourselves to see if you would have had the patience to keep an underperforming stock until it returns to be an interesting stock.
(I am not sure I am saying that right, maybe I should write it in French! LOL).
Cheers,
a.
Wow, "C" evaluation on Disney I had it as a A+ because I thought I nailed it lol! It's all good. Yeah timing is a weird thing because it's so hard to predict when things will happen. In general I don't mind holding an underperforming company (ahem MCD) as long as I still believe in the business. So I don't really base my decision to hold or sell based on time or even stock price. It's always based on business updates - SBUX is a great example.
Not saying that's the right way, that's just the way I do it 🤷🏻♂️
@@mattderron I agree with the sell-or-hold time period prediction. It kink of sounds like timing the market.
Coyate, I generally agree with your views on TXRH, CROS, and NKE. But I am unsure about DIS's turnaround. Their bad dramas still leave a bad taste. Plus, I have full position of Netflix. In comparison of the two, I can't see myself buying DIS.