How passer rating lies to you.
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- čas přidán 4. 07. 2024
- When ranking and grading quarterbacks, one stat that feels impossible to ignore is passer rating. But just how trustworthy of a metric is it when comparing QBs against themselves, each other, and across different eras? In this video, we deep dive on the passer rating stat and get to the bottom of how and when you should use it.
Time Stamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:44 - Passer rating is NOT quarterback rating
4:34 - What doesn't go into passer rating...
6:07 - Passer rating can cheat you
11:01 - The history of passer rating
14:12 - Don't let passer rating be your end all be all
Credits & Sources:
The Hidden Game of Football: www.amazon.com/Hidden-Game-Fo...
1970s NFL footage: • Classic 1970's NFL Hig...
Passer rating formula: emergentmath.com/2011/02/22/t...
0.0 passer ratings in history: stathead.com/tiny/ZczGs
All stats from Pro Football Reference.
Follow me on Twitter: / fbdoesntmatter - Sport
Hey guys -
At 6:47, Jared Goff had 0 interceptions.
He had 1 sack. I copied down the stats wrong for my graphic.
Thank you to those that called this out!
I’ve been thinking in the past couple of years how garbage of a stat passer rating can be. I don’t look at it very much anymore because QBs (maybe Wilson) have learned how to cheat it
russ' passer rating is BS because he would hold on to the ball too long and get strip sacked constantly, but he'd go 10/14 with a tud and a couple deep throws.
@@coalfey Russ has led the league in passes Behind The Line Of Scrimmage 8for the past five _YEARS!_* People are trying to blame Payton for being impatient. They don't understand. Payton tweaked or completely revamped the career of 3 other QBs, nine of whom have had success without him. (Doug Pederson did this with two as well).
He did all he could for Russ. The closest I've seen to someone trying to understand it said Payton resorted to calling mirror plays. These are passing plays where whatever is happening on the right is happening on the left.
They suck because they're easy to defend. The person making that video failed to see *why* Payton called them. It's because of the throws BtLOS.
Russ had been able to scramble around to where he could see the field. He's been losing that ability. He himself of course isn't measuring How Often he's doing it now compared to then, but _Payton saw_ this & identified it as The Problem.
If Russ looks right & can see the receivers are covered & knows where the receivers on the left should be, "maybe he only needs to shuffle left to a vantage point instead of having to scramble because he knows in advance where to look for the receiver." *Without* this, Russ would panic & throw to his check-down. It's an effing close to genius solution if you ask me.
There's two things falling out from all of this. Will the Steelers spot this problem in practices? There's a possibility they won't. Secondly, I can point to tons of things showing that Eberflus & Poles planned to oust Fields from day one & that Eberflus sabotaged him. _He_ might be a QB no ratings system can capture.
Daniel Jones:
Passer Rating 92.5 in 2022
QBR: 62.9
Contract: $160M (okay, half of that probably)
Easiest way to stat pad your passer rating is to have a high completion%
Meh, high completion usually results in less than 11 yards per attempt
TDs I think is the key stat pad, actually.
As a former Madden player, playing it safe with high completion percentage and some amount of TDs with minimal INTs is the perfect mix to have a high QB rating but not actually doing much for winning. Which is basically how all these "game manager" QBs work in real life, cheating the rating system.
I created my own stat called “Era adjusted net yards per attempt” It doesn’t use completions and takes into account attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks, yards lost from sacks, first downs, and strength of schedule. It then outputs it as a percentage compared to the league average. So far, I have found that the 2004 Colts are the best in terms of this metric, while the 1977 Buccaneers are the worst. What’s nice is you can do the same for passing defenses too, except lower is better and higher is worse.
Is this satire
@@Champe19 Nope. 100% real!
I've been trying to understand passer rating for years. Thanks a lot!
Happy to help!
An incomplete pass would affect your yards/attempt as well as decreasing your completion percentage. An example where a QB could do something negatively for his team to maintain his passer rating would be taking a sack when he could have thrown the ball away, but didn't want to affect either his yards/attempt or completion percentage.
PR is the only reason Russ Wilson still has a job. Being efficient is important, but it isn't the only thing. Better to combine and weigh every available metric.
I think that’s a bit of an exaggeration. Sure PR makes Russ look better but it’s not the sole reason he still is a starting QB in the NFL.
I feel like I understand this stat a lot better now. Thank you for this video!
6:47 No, Goff had 0 INTs, otherwise he wouldn't have had a perferct passer rating.
first comment hehe.
In all seriousness, This was a great video and really put a good perspective on some of the flaws of passer rating! Been looking for a video that goes in depth about this topic in an easy fashion. I wish the NFL designed a formula for rushing and receiving yard ratings as well (I think some guy on reddit tried to do this).
We live in a day and age where you need to have a passer rating of 90 or higher to be a solidified starter in this league
cause a rating of 90 means it a game that is better than 90% of other performances
Good video. This deservers more views.
great video!
Good video 👍🏼
The passer rating, like every other stat, is a valid stat but imperfect. You cannot base everything on a few stats. You need to take into account EVERY stat
It is useful, but like all metrics, does not tell the whole story. You could get strip-sacked five times for five defensive TDs and still finish with a perfect passer rating. Plus, given the rule changes since the metric was created, the number generated no longer illustrates exceptional passing as well as it used to. When created, 100.0 was truly exceptional since it was much harder not to throw picks. 158.3 was like an alien number. (Namath doing that in 1967 was crazy.) Now 100.0 is just another very good game.
And that's another thing (which you alluded to). Not all picks are equally bad. A fourth-down "arm punt" which has a potentially big payoff but is also less likely to get taken to the house by a defender (unless it's Ed Reed) is not as bad as a short check-down under duress on 1st and 10 that goes for a pick-six.
Great video, you nailed it.
I think one of the best things on Pro Football Reference is the "Adjusted Passing" section, as it shows performance relative to the competition, which is what really matters!
Ironic, Namath also had a 0.0 later in his career. Against the Bills, 2-18 3 ints.
Also on the other end, Joe Ferguson only threw 2 passes (both incomplete) with OJ, and fullback Jim Baxton ran wild (I think it was OJs 2k season)
@@DemonKingBadger Windy day in Buffalo?
@@JWD1992 could be, I really only remember the boxscore
Pastor rating doesn't consider how many series of downs , ints, and other turnovers and or clock time saved by referee calls. And how many questionable calls are made on the spot of the ball to force a challenge or time out by opponent, None of that oddly enough
Lol
Adjusted net yards/ attempt and EPA/Play are the only efficiency stats i really care about
I understand how VORP works better than I could describe passer rating or QBR. VORB is a basketball stat, I didn’t watch a single regular season game this year.
Look at EPA from ESPN QBR. It divides the credit and rewards volume.
It had Mahomes 3rd last regular season and Purdy like 7th and Tua like 10th.
It's way more reliable than rate stats or counting stats like yards which had Tua 1st.
Also accounts for rushing, passing, and sacks. Really is the best stat we have.
AV on PFR is somewhat decent too
Let me show y'all something more reliable. The eye-test. One of these QBs seems bent on Always Throwing pretty spirals, the other throws the ball lower, gets to his target quicker leaving the defense less time to adjust. Which is better? czcams.com/video/5JO1PsupF_U/video.html.
Now which is "considered" better?
@@UsefulPreconceivedNotions brother my eye test is better than yours and I have stats to back it up unlike you
@@ckq Oh, well, I'm sure that the kids in the schoolyard will be impressed by your tone of condescension. How does that system _work_ exactly? What does & doesn't it leave out? I was just making a point however of how we judge things regardless of stats _OR_ eye-test. Did you see the graph comparing T-L|aw & Dan Jones' 1st 50 games showing them to have almost identical numbers everywhere?
What does this system say about how Jones ranked at the end of last season (50 games before this disastrous one) compared to T-Law's out of curiosity? Having stats that say "nearly identical" it would be fun to see what another system gets different.
Come on, _play_ with the thing. If it says something different, would we know _why_ it got different results?
Incompletions should be handled similarly to (wild) pitches in baseball. If it's not the QB's fault, his rating shouldn't be docked.
What about QBR?
The real issue with Passer Rating are all of those Constants in the calculation. What are they representing? Also if those Constants came from that decade of stats then the Constants have to be recalculated every decade.
I make my opinion of QBs based off of wins, game situation and execution, playoff wins, Super Bowl appearances and wins, and their clutch factor.
Very similar to a running back's yards per carry. It's very much a function of the supporting cast. It depends on how good the blocking is and how good the passing game that complements it is. You can have a good YPC, because of a few or several 3rd-and-long runs.
YPC can also mislead you as to the overall effectiveness of the run game. Maybe you're only getting 3 ypc, but it's still enough - and you're stubborn enough about running - to give you a good play fake for the passing game. Cardinals with Curt Warner stuck with the run in spite of low ypc for that reason.
Passer rating can be destroyed by WRs who drop the ball.
I've always preferred QBR over Passer Rating.
There's more that factors into it, and modern QBs are far more dynamic than just the handful of metrics in Passer Rating.
Ah yes, QBR.
Aaron Rodgers
Passing - 26/39 for 396 yards. 2TD 0INT
Rushing - 1Rush -1yards
Tim Tebow
Passing 4/10 for 79 yards 1TD
Rushing 6Rush 38Yards 1TD
Guess who had the higher QBR that week....
QBR is the dumbest stat in the history of sports statistics. And you can't pretend you actually know what's measured anyway it is a completely proprietary system and the formula has never made available to the public at large.
Going just by last year..... yeah... I'd say in only the 7 games browning started he was at least as good as Mahomes and love were last year. He completed 70% of his passes and projecting out his pace to over a full season he would've hit 4,000 yards, about 25-26 TDs, 14-15 INTs, 8 Y/A, and owned a 60 QBR.
Love? 4100+ yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs, 64 comp%, 7.2 Y/A, 62 QBR
Mahomes? Just shy of 4200 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs, 67 comp%, 7 Y/A, and a 63 QBR.
Browning was posting similar numbers to that. I
Those are mvp numbers these days
No. Theres guys who stink for 3 quarters then light it up in garbage time for a 100 passer rating. QBR is better imo cuz it factors in situations like 3rd/4th downs, end of halves, and even rushing. Guys with really good QBR's tend to win.
Either way, Purdy’s #1
@@-PURPLE-HEAD This team made a super bowl with Jimmy G under center lol
@@williamhermann6635 Jimmy played his butt off that year! He deserved it!
@@-PURPLE-HEAD r/Whoosh
QBR.
Aaron Rodgers
Passing - 26/39 for 396 yards. 2TD 0INT
Rushing - 1Rush -1yards
Tim Tebow
Passing 4/10 for 79 yards 1TD
Rushing 6Rush 38Yards 1TD
Guess who had the higher QBR that week....
Yeah, it's a BRILLIANT system that really measure the QB...LULZ
Still better than the QBR trash
Aaron Rodgers
Passing - 26/39 for 396 yards. 2TD 0INT
Rushing - 1Rush -1yards
Tim Tebow
Passing 4/10 for 79 yards 1TD
Rushing 6Rush 38Yards 1TD
Guess who had the higher QBR that week....
I get what you’re saying but we often confuse or blend different conversations together. QBR is good considering one season compared to the other stats. If we’re talking about top five QBs playing right now then you need to consider how many Championship games they’ve been to. If a QB has been in the league for ten years and consistently has top five stats but has never to the Championship game, not top five. Generally if a team in the playoffs doesn’t make it to the Championship game it’s because the QB threw a game ending interception or made a game ending mistake. Two examples this year. Jordan Love throws a game ending INT. Jared Goff scrambling under pressure throws a 20 yard pass across his body to a wide open receiver and misses by ten yards. The receiver had zero chance to catch the ball. The “eye test” says these guys crumble under the big lights so not top five. QBR is great during the season but the top QBs win in the playoffs, period.
I think the real fault doesnt come from the stat itself but how its used. It is perfectly fine to use the stat for a game to summarize the passing performance of the game. The sports analysts should then interpret the data for the audience and explain the discrepancies that might be there.
You cant have a perfect quartbacking stat. There is too much variance, from the person themselves to the players around them to the field conditions. It helps to have a simple stat in mind and look at the context around it on your own. Over time the simple stats will reflect the actual performance of the qb by way of volume.
"Gee, I wonder if there's A Reason he's showing only Baker Mayfield when talking about how the ratings system can be tweaked? Yes, *before this season* Baker did seem to be playing like he was aware of all this & how to make himself seem better than he was. A _LOT!_ But less this past year. _Much_ less.
Passer rating, not rusher rating.
This rating system also comes from an era where intentional grounding and touching a quarterback were real things, u like today’s version of football where a quarterback is playing 2 hand touch
Maybe it’s time to calibrate the formula used.
When it comes to evaluating there is only one truth. Film don’t lie.
Well, given unlimited time, that's a great solution.
Coaches don't have unlimited time to evaluate their, or opposingplayerss.
@@duncanluciak5516 any coach worth their salt is looking at film. That’s like half the work all week for game prep.
It’s strange that you used Mahomes to argue against rating when he is one who “cheats” it, considering that he plays in a dink and dunk offense and throws shovel pass tds from the one yard line so often.
Lol
Yeah like how lamar has 4 perfect passer ratings and 2 playoff wins.
I'm more of a ANY/A guy myself
QBR >
This video: Jared Goff gets a perfect passer rating while thrown Ng an interception.
Also this video: A perfect passer rating requires 0 interceptions.
Seem like you're as reliable as passer rating.
Lol
I completely missed this while editing the video. He had 0 interceptions, but 1 sack, and I got confused while creating the graphic/recording the script.
Good call out!
Passer rating is flawed because it basically awards you for taking sacks. *cough* Russell Wilson *cough*
Passer rating is completely meaningless if you know ball
I hate to be that guy but 158.3 is not a natural number. The natural number line is made entirely of whole numbers.
You’re good! It was a joke because it is in fact unnatural and hard to remember
What geek added math equations into football anyway?
People saying qbr and passer rating don't matter are ALL Dak haters
Stats in football are mostly meaningless. The only way to really tell who's the better player is the eye test
in that case Lamar Jackson is the goat 🐐
@@wavemanj14 the eye test for him in the playoffs/big games isn't so great. If anything he's all stats
@@wavemanj14Your eye test stinks lol
I understand what you’re saying but that puts too much personal emotion into the ranking. That lets a person say a QB is top five even though their stats aren’t top five. What should also be considered, IMO, is how many times has that QB been to the Championship game and Super Bowl. Is a QB top five if they’ve never made it to a Championship game? Not in my opinion.
Russel Wilson was better than Mahomes last year, Mahomes was trash and on a great team. Wilson was also trash but on a horrible team.
Hurts having the lowest out of the group makes sense to me. Hes very overrated