Have you been waiting for the bottom??… Every Hot Rolex - Should you buy now or keep waiting?
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- čas přidán 11. 09. 2024
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We stand at the crossroads of a decisive moment for watch enthusiasts. The Grey market for Rolex timepieces has seen a gradual and uniform albeit slow downward trend. Values following 2 and a half years of a slump now sit at their lowest point since the peak of 2021.
This isn’t just a dip; it’s a seismic change in the landscape of the industry that has collectors and prospective buyers redefining their decision rationale of when to pull the trigger. The question looming large: Do you seize this bear market opportunity to buy the Rolex you’ve long desired, or do you hold your breath and wait, hoping prices might fall even further?
It’s the question I as a dealer have been asked most frequently, so let’s dissect the forces at play, is that downward trajectory still ongoing or flatlined, and objectively audit the market today for each and every most wanted Rolex model, Is it time you take the plunge or keep waiting on the shore?
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we are nowhere near the bottom for prices
Got a Datejust 41 yesterday from WOS Black Dial, Fluted Bezel and Jubilee Bracelet no discount 9.3k been on their waiting list 3yrs,i know the advice is Pass but I love the combo, no intention to sell so I'm very happy to have gotten the call 😜
great video vinny. My local WoS AD said they were stuffed with inventory, especially TT, Gold, and watches north of 20k. He said and I quote " people have just stopped answering the phone to our calls" Interesting.
Couldn't happen to a nicer shower of cnuts as the Pontiff would say!!
Submariners of all types were below retail in the grey market before 2020. I’ll wait for that or to get a call from the AD.
The secondary grey watch market is dead and floating face down in a backyard pool. Unbelievable!
best to wait another 6 months and you buy 10%+ lower.
There are a lot of pre owned dealers sitting on large numbers of "hard to get watches" that are fast becoming "easy to get watches".
The bubble has burst.
If everybody was like that nobody would buy anything. Most of the expensive things we buy we would lose money on if we had to resell.
@@jamessmith-on3jf Most luxury items depreciate when resold. Rolex, AP etc were a bit of an anomaly.
Vintage is a bit different though.
People buy luxury goods to show off wealth. If you can't stomach the devaluation you ain't rich 🤑
@@disgruntledoflondon 100% agree the fact that there is still a lot of rolex watches unworn unto 5 years old is a sure sign the owners can't afford them.
@@jamessmith-on3jf in a few years people will doing their Economics dissertations on the Rolex Bubble.
Lots of people speculating on Rolex "Investments" with money they can't afford to lose or getting into debt to be in the "in scene". They can't lose right? Rolex prices only go up!
The Bubble was fun, some people made a lot of money, but now a lot of "investors" are holding assets in negative equity. It's just how the game is played 😉
Let’s be honest, through all of the hype Rolex have made millions of watches. Their production is at an all time high. With demand waning prices will drift lower.
flatlined? far from it. the watch industry is in for a huge wake up call
plenty more room to fall.
I couldn’t be bothered to wait any longer for a sub date and went grey. Paid just over retail and got the watch same day.
congrats!
Same here. No chance of waiting several months for a no date. A year on and no call.
Its gonna fall more.
Just ask yourself a simple question : has the coming recession truly started ?
Some tightening of belts / some increased consumer discretion is noted …. But generally not really.
So, I would argue probably best not to buy ever increasingly mass produced watches that everyone in London, Kent and Essex already has 3/4 models in the watchbox.
Quite some stored inventory held by consumers that will be dumped….
I really appreciate you didn’t like bothe Celebration dial and the Grey/Black GMT. You have a good unbiased taste.
right!
I have an appointment tomorrow with WoS, I will report back, as to what the latest state of play is with inventory, etc, and supply more generally.
oooh fascinating let us know!
Waiting for that report!
@@vinnyfrancis plenty of inventory as I said before, but not as much as previously. The reason is Head office said there must be one, no empty cases, two, there must be no more than two of the same model in the window. If they have three or more of the same model in stock, at least one must be kept in the safe. WoS head office don't want multiple same models, in the window as it looks as if they are stacked with inventory...
And then you look at Trotters as an example who are quite literally 10-15% above the fair market value
Not sure why anyone would want to look there.
The wide boys deal with a lot of young execs from the pharmaceutical industry looking to spend their bonuses. 😂
@@David-yd6ur I don't know how Trotters get away with it, must be the most desperate of desperate. They have interesting clients...
@@BAF605 Yup, exactly this
And hope to god its 100% original...... would not trust them one bit.
I've been in the Rolex Ad in Birmingham and Nottingham. Both lovely, helpful and let me try on plenty of watches. If you want a two tone, or solid gold watch, you can walk out of the store with one, or wait a few weeks. Of course, many of these are actually cheaper now on secondary market, or same price.
And yet grey market dealers with bricks and mortar stores, are still holding out for Covid 2022 prices. Meanwhile last week my AD, without exaggeration and 4 Yachtmasters on Oyster flex, 6 Sky dwellers, a smurf, 2 guinesses all available as walk-ins. Mental
wow shocking really but this has not surprised me, the retail price increases of anything good have been much more than steep due to the trading price of gold rallying and the grey market just hasn’t kept up with it
Which dealer would that be?
@@vinnyfrancis good point. There were plenty of 30/40 k pieces available incuding the Pave dial yacht master He intimated I could have a discount on the rose gold yacht master and the Pave dial one also. 42k for the latter, fuck that. Maybe tempted on the rose gold one though!
Which skydwellers??
What dealer?
Info about the non date submariner isn't true, definitely not a few week wait
i’ve literally had a client who only waited 7 weeks on it and other dealers have reported to me similar situations with their clients…I only report the truth of what i’m hearing, perhaps try another AD
Depends on your profile with your AD
I’m waiting for the prices to drop.
With Chinese economy tanking prices will continue to drift till HK dealers start dumping extensive stock levels due to cost of carrying inventory.
Keep up the interesting content. Thank you
Yes China is really going backwards and this is 100% correlated with the west to go into decline now
Yes. Recent news of Chow Tai Fook, the famed HK jewelry chain with locations about every 500 meters in HK, is cratering. Sales were down massively YoY. If that’s a barometer for the mainland too (and very likely) I’d love to see Rolex, AP, PP send more product to the US.
People are buying super clones hand over fist now, which are 1:1 to virtually everyone unless you sit there for half an hour in your hand scrutinising it. Nobody seems to have picked up on this.
Folks this is when reality sets in. Rolex is not rare, its not uncommon, or unobtainable. This is a company that makes a million plus watches a year. The bubble has burst, things that are common will keep sinking. The cant get days are over.
It they are very durable very practical (unlike Vacherin and finiky AP) and very beautiful 😍
thanks for the info your the best for info and honesty
I appreciate that thanks for watching!
No profit, no flippers buying.
very true
I bought a watch from AMZWATCH lightly used for my last milestone birthday. Don't wear it as much as it deserves, but not afraid to, either. It's stunning . Good taste, Sir.
My concern is 20% price. 80% frustration with ADs in Singapore and their attitudes, and openly telling me it’s impossible to even get a date just. Just go to grey dealers.
Singapore Market, with reference to watches, is lost in general. Still on the cool aid there
I want to wait...
But I got all my Rolex, so I don't need you anymore AD.
Solid update and analysis as always. The only wrinkle I’d throw in - age. If you’re young and not incredibly well off, wait. Older guys who want to just get the watch they’ve wanted for some time, just do it. And if you do and 6 months later the price is lower, don’t let it bother you.
After the rumblings in the stock market today and a potential recession looming on the horizon I think right now is not the time to buy if you can wait a little longer. Simply to see how this plays out, personally I don't really see a world where recession hits, people are potentially losing their jobs and their stock portfolio tanks and they buy a Rolex. As for AP, or Patek I don't think a recession hits them as hard, but there are plenty of people running around with a Rolex that don't have money. If these people lose their job it is clear that their watches will enter the market. It's all fun and games when you receive stimulus checks and any asset you buy only goes up in value... however the tides have already turned and I suspect the blood bath has not even begun. Ofcourse if we don't go into a recession this won't happen, but I would stay on the sidelines for now.
Thank goodness someone called out the celebration dial as awful🎉
HAHA finally someone agrees! what were they thinking...
I think it's an awesome watch, the more hate, the more I love it LOL I'm female and I do agree that it's more suited for women than men. The dial is amazing in person and it just brings a bit of joy to the day. Different strokes for different folks :)
@@apriljones2272awesome great to have you! and from when i first laid eyes on the piece i just thought a 41mm is not right for this watch, similar to the palm fiat motif datejusts, they look good on 36mm but they never made them in 41. it’s a fun watch but just not for me, i’ve always found the tiffany dial too feminine aswell, this is just a development of that watch
Interesting to hear you say about the short wait time (as little as a few weeks) for a no date sub. I hope you are right, as I have been waiting for 11 weeks since registering my interest, and no call as of yet.
Fingers crossed! I have heard from other dealer and some clients that there is little to no demand for that piece, so perhaps lobby them more or try another AD
@@vinnyfrancis just an update on my situation, I have now been waiting for four months, and no joy. I have tried three other dealers, one said two years at least, one said five years, and the last one just said they are not even putting names on the list as the wait is so long and probably won’t be able to supply me one at all, so I am not sure where your people are getting them from with no wait, but it’s not anywhere near me 😂.
Waiting a few weeks for a no-date was definitely not my experience. Much much longer. I finally purchased first week of July after getting the call.
Steep retail price increases hasn't helped it, and your seeing the daft reseller still telling people on instagram that the markets never been better.
The only stuff that's really selling for more is the watches that were wanted pre covid nonsense. People just dont have the lose capital they had 4 years ago.
I've recently began my obsession as a watch collector. And i must say- out of all the luxury brands I've been researching, for me the MaMaCoo 's watches are the most intriguing.
So-o-o-o tired of hearing about the Rolex Pepsi.
tell me about it!…dont buy it, the price is a joke, that’s all that needs saying
@@vinnyfrancis Hi I got a question about the GMT Master 2 RootBear- I have the possibility of buying it for £12,500 is it worth it?
I bought this popular video watch from amzwatch , which was originally priced at a few thousand dollars, but now it's only $380! It's really suitable to pick up feces!
Wait till after Christmas!
Thank you for the honest update. Have always enjoyed your videos! I feel there is nothing stopping watch prices to fall further, no not even increases in MSRPs.
Thanks for watching, and who knows, these are just my honest beliefs when looking at the data but of course external economic events could arise that rock the boat. I think the genera picture of present is that the waters have calmed.
The muppet boiler room watch market is dead 😂
drop drop
@@vinnyfrancis lol, unbelievable but true. All joking aside, I like your channel 😀
thanks man.
Best regards,
Brad Pitt
Great episode, pls keep them coming.
Thanks for watching, will do!
got my 39mm with the white dial on the 3-link "Bader" bracelet watch on amzwatch 3 weeks ago and am loving it to pieces. Absolute fantastic watch that wears super comfortable on my 6.75 inch wrist. Chose the 3-link over the 5-link bracelet for the toolless quick adjustment. Way more comfortable than my Longines Hydroconquest 41 mm.
Once the interest rates come down prices will rocket back up over decades the trends showing price don’t drop for certain pieces be in Rolex or other luxury brands, we still can’t walk into AD and purchase certain models and to keep that hype I believe certain pieces will continue to be waiting list products or grey market buys
Great Vid ! but Vinny what about the Sub LV ? what do you suggest ?
Haha damn i knew there would be one…It’s actually quite fairly priced now i believe, for the older darker bezel in unworn condition you can find for around £11500 which has held at that’s price for a few month, though i’d wait on the new bezel as i think there is still a novelty premium on this
Thanks for the update Vinny. I'd say whatever the present demand for any particular model the general feeling among consumers is there is no rush. The Rolex ebb tide is lowering all boats. I recently picked up an El Primero at 50% discount. The watch was on offer at 40% but when I said I'd think about it the SA offered me another 10% for an immediate sale. He didn't even have to consult his boss. They are all hurting and that goes for the chains dealing in Mall watches too.
Thank you for making high quality videos!Love amzwatch ’s watches
what about the Pepsi Meteorite dial? I can get one right now at $53000 US.... safe bet?
Watches of the vale are now selling 2024 two tone rootbeer for same price as retail, this was the watch I was waiting on but going to wait and see if they continue to fall in price, as I can’t see them increasing
this is mainly due to the fact that two tone models across the board for rolex have increased by greater percentage at retail due to the rallying price of gold, the grey market just hasn’t responded to that rise so now there is parity, again not much movement on the grey price has happened lately so waiting begs the question of how long? another 6 months for a couple of hundred pounds saving perhaps?
Definitely good move to wait! It is only a watch bro!
@@vinnyfrancis Do you recommend buying a rootbeer and holding for long term?
Sub no date is harder to get than the date, my AD gets 1 in every 10 Sub Dates. Less people want them but Rolex also doesn’t produce that many.
Great video Vinny, your channel is criminally underrated! Keep it up!
Thanks man, very kind of you, have a great day
I’m planning on getting my first Rolex watch in 5 years a Rolex OP 41 Sliver
just buy from your friendly local AD, you can't go wrong
question is…when?? if it were as easy as that then this wouldn’t even be a debate
@@vinnyfrancis it’s pretty easy
amzwatch has set a new standard for replica watches. Their craftsmanship is impeccable. Its hard to tell the difference from the originals
Why does nobody ever talk about the Starbucks?
Prices at retail have increased to match grey prices. Rolex are increasing production as well so they take a chunk out of the grey market. At the same time people who are looking at Rolex have less money and are about to have even less once Labour get started taking all our money. All points to much more available stock and less demand on all but the Daytona and Pepsi models.
I got my call for submariner Starbucks in April after waiting 10 months. I paid $10,800. Grey market has it $14,000. No way. I’ll wait for that gmt.
If you take a look around now it's summertime and people have short sleeves on you will notice that everyone... And I mean everyone is sporting a smart watch.
I predict this will be far worse than the quartz crisis and if rolex et all are not careful with their shitty ad behavior etc they will be scratching around for any sales at all in 5 to 10 years time.
Rubbish!
@@David-yd6ur jeez is that the best you've got.
@@derekireland1460 Would you like me to comment on your poor punctuation as well?
Makes sense. I’ve also noticed mostly smart watches over here in nyc…people with money are afraid to wear expensive jewelry due to significant increase in brazen crimes. You can buy a Rolex now and wear it around the house but not outside. What’s the point…
@@jonreiter9846agree. In LA; fortunately in a very nice community with our own police so I wear my Batman everywhere w/o fear. But when I go to the Westside I wear my Tudors or microbrands.
MAMACOO watch are the best, I say this from experience.
Vinny, good video, but you forgot to cover the MK2 Starbucks, again.
Market will keep dropping until the undesirable TT sports, DJ, full precious metal etc, are back 20-30% below retail. SS Sub is less than three month wait at my AD. No purchase history needed. It’ll be back below retail on the used watch market along with all the rest run of the mill Rolex models.
All of these watches are hard to get from ADs in Canada. It seems like all the talk about “easy to get from AD” is from the UK.
This comment section is full of new or wannabe collectors. How do you think gray market survived 10 years ago when you could buy any watch you wanted from the AD? This isn’t anything new
otherwise an excellent comprehensive video as no one did . Information information , thank you
Glad you enjoyed it!
I've recently began my obsession as a watch collector. And i must say- out of all the luxury brands I've been researching, for me the MAMACOO's watches are the most intriguing.
Next year you can get a Rolex for one potato.
I live in Canada and the only prices and roll. I said I’m dropping of the really hype ones that went crazy. The ones like Shaw and the gym pees in there the ton of the prices here are still up. It’s not cheap and hard to get information from yeah I know the hype ones I want like crazy 45 times the regular price.
Great video Vinny. Many thanks.
thx for sharing, enjoyed it.
Glad you enjoyed it
Then I wouldn’t regret selling my MK2 SD43 as I plan to buy a MK1 after around 2 years ?!
Green dial OP 41 in a few weeks at an AD? It that’s the case I think I’ll give it a shot ❤
What about the Daytona in precious metal and oysterflex?
Rolex GMT-Master II or Rolex Daytona both in yellow gold
If I buy anything, I’ll wait until the recession genuinely hits, that it’s tsunami hits, etc... I think it is far too early, I mean perhaps a year or two too early.
what’s bringing such a tsunami recession on then? interested to hear this explained as so many other are claiming this…
Why I believe that the drop is very far from the bottom is fairly simple:
The WEF agenda coupled with the Western économies astronomical debts, the wars / conflicts leading to unreasonable and stupid policies and expenditures, the upcoming taxes explosions to pay for all this, all of which will lead to doom & gloom for most people.
The Western tech sector is the subject of massive layoffs which have just started whilst these high earners are luxury consumers.
Then the Chinese government cracking down on luxury items with “luxury shaming”. This has had a very significant impact on the Chinese market which led LVMH, Kering, Swatch Group, Financière de Richemont, etc… shares prices to drop because of a significant decline of the Chinese market… which has just started in fact.
I believe that we’ll see much more decline for 2024 when the 2024 figures will be released during the Q1 2025.
Then there is the BRICS group retaliation against the bellicose Western countries policies. These will steer clear from the US dollars, a term coined as de-dolarisation whilst factually they will pull away from all Western currencies. This will lead to a drop in all Western currencies as demand will falter. This in turn will put inflationary pressure throughout the Western world.
The energy costs will increase in case of a regional war in the Middle-East.
Anyone holding unhedged watches inventory may be in for a big bath… Hence there might be interesting deals to be made as even AD may be under pressure to get rid of their inventory.
Wow ! My response was deleted. Why ?
@@patrickjean-philippe7679 ? never seen your reply, auto deleted by yt perhaps? write it again
Then I wouldn’t regret selling my Starbucks as I planning to get a Kermit instead but after 2 years ?!
I have a day/date President that I want to sell- box and papers. Anyone know what I should ask ?
hi it all depends on dial colour and spec?
My AD certainly isn’t gonna dish out watches within a few weeks/months.
I wish !!
Offered me a vulgar configuration of a watch with diamonds
Absolutely not!!
Sorry to hear that, perhaps try another AD?
My one is in Knightsbridge
You had someone say Stratford is the place to go ,so fingers crossed
How can AD’s expect to keep you loyal when they don’t produce the goods 🤨
good job Vinny ~. JDS/CT
@vinny Your content is just great full of energy and good info! Why oh why do people think stainless steel watches it is worth paying over RRP? I know supply and demand…..but at the sub 15k price point most people are not millionaires…..so you gotta value your hard earned money
. Do you agree?
thanks man and i guess to many people the fact it’s over retail doesn’t really matter because they can’t get it at retail anyway so they see the market price as the ‘real’ price
During Covid times the market was silly. I think before this hype people have forgotten that you could walk in to buy stainless rolexes no problem....and many times with a good discount! Those times are back already for Omega and Cartier. Rolex prices haven't crashed yet as stock is being held back by dealers. The same is true for big UK car network. The question is who has the biggest pockets to keep going without selling anything? For cars this cartel works....as it is a functional item..watches however are NOT! CRASH GUARANTEED FOR ROLLIES! 😅
Excellent video. Thumbs up and followed.
Awesome, thank you!
Please somebody telling me why almost everybody talking watches has in the frame that book A Man & His Watch? It is a piece of junk ! Absolute butaphoria!!!
Great video vinny, I have a 2022 John Mayer, I have just watched it fall and fall, got a buy quote from watchfinder for 41k!!!! Where do you feel that watch will go in future?
yes the situation with this im afraid to say is not going to change much in the coming months. The problem is that the ‘event’ for which investors hoped would stimulate the market on this, has already happened by that i mean it’s discontinuation. It’s unlikely that anything will now happen to drive the market one way or another and as such unless you intend to hold for another 5 years i don’t believe it’s likely to grow in value. If we take the hulk as an example, it was produced for nearly as long as the John Mayer and has very steadily grown in the market since it got the chop, however this is a more accessible piece at that price point so not a great comparison.
Are you considering selling? I’m in the market for one
Spoken like a weatherman. No muss no fuss with a sprinkle of dry humor. Nice vid
haha that made me laugh, thanks i guess🤷♂️
@@vinnyfrancis It is a compliment. Keep it up!
amzwatch is best watch factory!!!
With the exception of the gold and platinum Rolex the prices will continue to fall, and fall. Thinking otherwise is nothing but wishful thinking. Buy the watch you like, not to see it increase in value.
Even precious metals models will drop as their margins are huge considering the value of precious metals used within their manufacture…
@@patrickjean-philippe7679 You have a point about the amount of 18 gold in a Day//Date. The thing is the gold Day/date is a beautiful watch unlike the fugly stainless models. :)
Ah ! Everyone has his/her own tastes and remains free to spend on whatever they can afford and fancy. For my part I go steel, titanium, ceramic and I buy the 1kg precious metals lingots for value. Different folks, different ways 😉
All dat amzwatch watches sssssoooooooo gorgeous！
I love that polo! What brand is it?
thanks man! It’s from the Saville Row Company, just google them😉
I think most Rolex owners are waiting for a bottom, mostly their best male friends one that they can’t own up to
I have to say that #MaMaCoo 's watches are amazing!
Yeah, yeah, yeah 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Do you think grey market prices will shoot up when crypto has it's Bull Run in a few months time?
good info
thanks for watching
@@vinnyfrancis im hunting for a 116500.. will wait as per your advice
paella vomit!! haha! yes my friend!!
are these wait times real mate? if so I can do 2 months !!!!
Sea-Dweller?
Rolex is not worth it. I own two sea dwellers and they have -5 seconds per day accuracy, what's the point
VC, PP, Cartier, AP are all beter choices
That should be under warranty, because Rolex is guaranteed to have superlative standards of -2 +2 secs a day
@@key4duty I brought the watch to service yesterday and yes it’s under warranty. Still too much hassle.
If you have the current 32xx movement, it could get worse since it _might_ suffer from the low amplitude bug. If you don't know what that is, you can read all 170+ pages on the Rolex Forums about the problem.
@@moonshine_gold exactly. Why would I wait in line to pay for an overpriced watch and act grateful when they make money on me.
the new rolex factory is selling for 50% DISCOUNT at the back door
🤦♂️ dumbest comment ever
I do love the hate Rolex gets. I do point to other brands though , where you take an absolute pasting on second hand value and with Rolex, not so much. Go by the adage that if you like it, get it.
❤❤❤
A few weeks wait for a no date sub ???? I don’t think so
try it. i have a few clients who have picked them up in a matter of weeks
Typical herd mentality, when it drops everyone waits, when it goes up everyone chase. Economics 101 🤓
This is so true!
Why dont you mention green bezel submariner???
I absolutely love watches, the high end watch brands are out of my budget but the MaMaCoo has literally an almost duplicate of every single watch on the market . Always a great but no matter your budget.