5 Ways Russia's War Ends
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- čas přidán 14. 05. 2024
- I look at 5 possible outcomes of russia's war against Ukraine.
OUTLINE:
0:00 -Introduction
0:19 - "Negotiated Settlement"
3:01 - New Russian Leader
6:02 - Liberation & "Israelization"
9:00 - Russian Civil War
13:26 - Decolonization
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Your insights are fascinating. Much to think about. I see why you feel something like Option 3 is more likely than Option 5, but I do wonder. I remember when the Soviets had their last gasp attempted coup, and Boris Yeltsin emerged, making speeches from the top of a tank to an enthralled crowd. No one had the slightest clue who he was two days before and then everyone knew his name. He looked like the new hope for Russia and not the squalid drunken sell out he turned out to be. If that taught me any lessons about Russia, it was two things: 1) Anything can happen in the chaos (which is true of any country) and 2) The old entrenched Soviet / mafia powers will always find a way back into the centre of Russian power. They’re just so deeply embedded into the Russian psyche as well as their way of doing things. So, there must be a concerted, joint-international effort from the outside, like that of the western occupying powers in Germany after WWII, or whatever happens will lead us back to the old Soviet Bear.
There are no living Russians who have ever known democracy, or a tradition of freedom, let alone a state that does not routinely lie to and intimidate them. Even the myth of the unwritten contract in Russia, where the government gets to do what it likes in return for minimal state interference in private lives, was only Yeltsin and then Putin making a virtue out of a necessity. They couldn’t afford to fund modern police methods of detection and forensics, for example, when they cared less about justice than the masses obeying their laws. It will take generations to breed that apathy, cynicism and moral absenteeism out of Russia, unless they get bitten by the bug of democracy, like the progressive West Germans did?
*you are laughable*
BRAVO PAUL
I agree, 3rd version is the most reliable in short-time perspective
We’ve already tried option 1 and it failed hard. Took us where we are now.
hard to imagine how russia can come to some real kind of democracy, but in general there are very bright vision and thoughts, Paul
Paul, thank you for your supporting Ukraine! Greetings from Dnipro!
'Israelization' is a new term for me. Finland and other countries that border Russia already do this, or something like this. I think.
Peace!
🙏🕊🌻🔱 Excellent Update! This Insanity Needs to End! Ukraine is Strong! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! The World Stands Committed with Ukraine! 🔱🌻🕊🙏
Thank you for your support of Ukraine, Paul! It can be a mixed scenario where Ukraine is strong enough to push out the RF, leading to decolonization of the federation. Such a union as the RF has no future, the countries that are now part of the federation may have some problems with Moscow, but I don't think we should call it a civil war. Ukraine will win with the strong support of our friends and allies! Glory to Ukraine and God bless America! 💛💙
Standing up for Nazis is a dirty job, but someone has to do it.
Paul, thank you for supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦
Thank you to the American people for supporting Ukraine. We will definitely win!
“[The muscovites] preach the supremacy of the state, declare its omnipotence over individual man, and predict its eventual domination of all peoples on the earth; they are the focus of evil in the modern world.”
Ronald Reagan, March 1983
Yes Ukraine will win! I believe we (Americans) should give everything possible to Ukraine to end this war sooner rather than later. But no matter how long it takes Ukraine will be victorious and in unity we will all celebrate! Slava Ukraini 💪🏻🇺🇦🇺🇸
@@Carol9929 Дякую🤗Героям Слава!💙💛
@@abtrtomr Ronald Reagan was right... With American weapons and the support of Ukrainians, we will defeat the muscovites now 💪💙💛
Texas supports Russia we don't support the Nazis in Ukraine
Excellent, Paul! I'm 100% in agreement with you. Keep up the good fight on informational front to keep "negotiation settlement" folks out of the picture. Important work, you are doing, ma man!
Best scenario for Ukraine is driving ru soldiers out, and NATO accepting Ukraine shortly afterwards. Only this ensures peace in Europe and that Russia won't dare attacking again.
They might go against Georgia and Kazakhstan sometime in the future, but that's what sanctions are for.
and let the Ukrainians free to GENOCIDE the Russophone in the Donbass and Crimea? dream-on!
most important is for Ukraine to join Nato to ensure peace
Support Ukraine! 🇺🇦❤️
Thank you, Paul, for this thought provoking post! But to me, creating a democracy from the raw material of present day Russia seems as impossible as making a silk purse from an Orcs' ear. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 Heroyam Slava 🇺🇦 ♥️
When I think of the prospect of Russia becoming a true democracy, I think back to the long and bloody process in which France became one.
Before the French Revolution, France was an absolute monarchy. Their first republic that emerged from the ashes of the revolution was an utter disaster and that period was known as the 'Reign of Terror'.
That ended when Napoleon became dictator and then Emperor. Napoleon was then defeated by the British and the monarchy restored.
Another revolution established the Second French Republic. Napoleon III overthrew that in a coup and formed the Second French Empire. He then got dethroned after being defeated in the Franco-Prussian War and the Third French Republic was established.
The Third French Republic was so dysfunctional they didn't want it back after the liberation from Nazi Germany and their Vichy puppets. The Fourth Republic was so dysfunctional De Gaulle dissolved it to make way for the Fifth (present) French Republic.
Might be a very long time before Russia (or its successor states if it ends up breaking up) could possibly attempt democracy and have it finally stick. I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime.
try to do it in Ukraine or the USA, it's worse!
I mean we could end up with most territory back but slow war. Slow war for decades. I hope not.
Can you do an update on a counteroffensive, tnx.
Paul, thank you for your analysis !
Like every empire the russian empire will end the same way, by collapsing to the smaller parts. This process already in progress 😊
steps 3-5 sound like a plan😅
Some mediums just don't work for some people.
Thanks Paul 👍 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
👍👍👍
!!!
What about Chinese interests ??
Bases in possible new republics ? Or china controlled new Republic, like relation between Belarus and Moscovia now ?
Thank you for your great analysis. I am glad to see you address this explicitly (since I have been harping on it for some time). But if I could be so bold as to toss out some possible nuances: I see Option 5 as near- to mid-term Western fantasy. Given the present. ephemeral commitments of the Western powers, I don't see the mechanism of how this could come to be. Yes, I concur that, on a historical time scale, this kind of result can eventually evolve. But short of a comprehensive destruction of the social fabric, I could also see it taking a number of generations for a new mindset to displace the old. Perhaps not in our lifetimes. Like you, I see Option 3, the "Israelization" of Ukraine as the most likely with the facts as we presently know them. But this would require Ukraine's immediate accession into NATO to be viable for any period of time. And beyond that, who Russia turns out to be in the mean time will determine whether this is a good outcome, or yet another bad outcome. Imagine, if you will, another, very large, aggrieved, nuclear North Korea bordering half the the Arctic Ocean with a rabid Milblogger at the helm. Even if sanctions remain in place and NATO remains strong (along with the China variable), that might not be fun times. Option 4, Civil War, I see as a close second, but in reality this outcome is unknowable. It could, in reality, be much more likely under present circumstances, and perhaps we just don't know it. As you point out, outcomes can range all the way from a collection of well-mannered nation states to failed states with nuclear rogue actors. This is the Joker in the deck, and it can change world history.
🇺🇦🫂🇺🇸
Ukraine can give up siberia. Fair?
Moscovia !!
👍
Greetings from Poland! Thank YOU!
I like number five! 🤔They could follow the example of their old hereditary enemy Sweden! You know, once an aggressive superpower but up until now, no combat wars since 1814. Just a thought! 😁 🇸🇪💙🇺🇦💛
It would be nice, but those who know history would say: naive wishful thinking. With high degree of probability their next leader will be more brutal and inhumane. This one did not lived up to their expectation of being ruthless with “disobedient” and that is why the state failed.
Lolol
Yes...we are ALL laughing at you 😂
Like
Interesting analysis. Let's hope for a good outcome for Ukraine
I like the notion of Putin being removed by his own people, so whatever is going speed that up I support. Actually any scenario that doesn't include him being removed from power, is not a win. How can that even be acceptable for anyone, not least for UA? One thing I find strange is that nobody seems to get how different mindset the younger generation has, so Russia continuing on the same path I just can't really see happening. These times are so different from any other time in history to begin with, ie with internet and smartphones.
100%
Another possible scenario is Kyiv reasserting its historic role as the center of rus. When china inevitably decides to stick a dagger in the kremlin's back by forcibly seizing the resource rich eastern asiatic portions of russia, the nominally slavic western regions will seek stability and security in a European state most likely centered in Kyiv.
XDDDDDDD
Hi Paul,
Thinking about the future US elections from the republican side. It seems at the moment that it could be DeSanto or Trump again, although I think that Trump has been compromised by Putin. My point being that neither of these seem to offer positives for Ukraine. Your opinion would be much appreciated as you are on the hill and in the thick of it.
Ed. I'm a Brit
Slava krainii
I think 3 is most likely option as well. And I think zelenski agreeing to step down and have a new election in Ukraine could allow that to happen because it would allow Putin something. He could claim he denazified Ukraine. Yes we all know that is absurd but because it is absurd it can be a negotiating chip.
Sadly I think there is another option. Ukraine’s allies become more selfish and no longer support Ukraine and Ukraine loses bringing on a mass genocide of Ukraine. We shouldn’t ignore this possibility because if we think this is impossible we may not be as vigilant in our support.
8:20 I mean, Russia has been behaving like Hamas for a almost a decade now towards Ukraine. Look at their behaviour in Donbas during that time. It makes sense for Ukraine to become more like Israel in this context. They didn't ask for this, but their survival is at stake, just like Israel.
Every impire must be fall apart,
but sometimes it needs more time.
We hope for version 5, but might be 3.
1991 borders 👍👍👍
Not russian civil war, correctly russian mafiozian war between PMC
💅
#1 Not viable.
#2 Been there, done that and it was a big mistake.
#3 Return to 1991 is good but without isolation remains a mistake.
#4 Civil war will not happen, too many Russians are still oppressed.
#5 Possible only if Russia is isolated and younger generations are somehow re-educated. Wanting to be free has to come from them and not forced by the West.
Anything but the return to 1991 borders will be viewed as a win for Russia by autocratic countries and a lost of credibility towards NATO. Let's honor the heroes of Ukraine by ensuring that they get their country back, nothing less.
Russia has to be isolated. Canadians who think that we should not support Ukraine should recognize that our neighbors to the North is Russia. Russia has been building military bases right at our doorsteps. Canada can't afford to be complacent.
Слава Україні! 🤟
(Glory to Ukraine)
Thank you Paul. Always looking forward to your next video.
🍁Together we stand. Together we will celebrate the defeat of the Russian empire. 🇨🇦🍁
Lol
Paul, you are ignoring the elephant in the room. In WWII, when we tired of losing men fighting the Japanese, we started evaporating Japanese civilians by the hundreds of thousands. Do you think the Russians are more humane than we are? We better hope they are!!!
wow, you're insane.
There is no more Ukraine.
I think the most likely case scenario is Ukraine gets wiped off the map and becomes part of Russia ❤
🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦
Glory to Ukraine!
all based takes
Ukraine need to
- join NATO to prevent any russian aggression in future
- join EU to make russia harder to spread corruption
- get rid of russian language like Baltic countries did, just start with ignoring any russian content, including russian "liberals"
Lol Ukrainians literally speak Russia how can it be removed. Nothing wrong with Russia, Ukraine should have never existed in the first place
Where is your Ukraine victory are????
Funny man your joking
I wonder if Ukraine will activate a nuclear weapons program after all this.
Ukraine 🇺🇦 will never surrender!
Freedom is our religion !
💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛