Bunting is Stupid and the Numbers Prove It
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- čas přidán 18. 10. 2023
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Bunting was for much of baseball history, a proudly-used weapon for small ball and fast players. But in today's MLB, it makes less sense than ever to bunt...
Articles cited in the video for further reading - pastebin.com/gjq200ME
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#mlb #baseball #sports #mlbplayoffs - Sport
Personally I think going on a rally and stringing a few hits together is more exciting than a solo HR
Eh nothing will ever beat a home run
I agree. Especially since after the string leads to a run scoring there's runners on and we can hope for more, a big inning.
The point made in this video is that stringing hits is more difficult.
The last 3 minutes are really key. Bunting runners over and “small ball” late in games is something I agree is going to be the key in close games and can be huge especially in the playoffs when runs are even tougher to come by.
But you haven't seen me drag bunt with Rickey Henderson in MLB The Show. I get a base hit 90% of the time.
Exactly
everyone knows andres gimenez is the sneaky drag bunt king of mlb the show
At least you're not that dude that bunt cheeses the entire game. Well, I hope.
1990 WaPo article Art of bunting has become passé.
“Henderson, regarded as the premier leadoff man in baseball, is blunt in his disdain for the bunt. He tried it less than 10 times in 1989.
"I gave it up in the minor leagues because I didn't bunt well, so I threw it out of my hitting strategy," said Henderson, a key member of the Oakland Athletics' World Series champions in 1989. "Most guys who can't hit or who aren't hitting well will look to bunt for a hit but I just go up there to hit."
The math here is a little suspect. If the average for position players bunting since 2015 is .479, then it's a very useful tool, at least for those position players who use it because I can guarantee you none of them have an on base percentage above .479.
Cause sacrifice bunts aren’t counted as ABs for BA but if you look at the OBP, which does include sacrifices, it was .348 which is not bad but really not that good either
@@nxnite A .348 OBP would be top 50 in baseball every year. By what metrics is that not "good"? lmao
This guy sounds like a three true outcome enjoyer
Total 🤡
king of juco is gonna love this
That was my first thought before I even finished reading the title!
Did you watch the whole video?
You mean that grown man who acts like a 10 year old?
More like King of Folded
@@ClaraInstalledAimbotyou’re so cool bro
My college team probably has the best profile for a team that should bunt. No real power threat, steal a lot of bases, a lineup able to get clutch hits, and most importantly, really good at actually getting bunts down. Basically all season we would get a guy on, they steal second, bunt them to third, then bring them in on a hit or sacrifice. It was so predictable yet because of our speed and effective bunt placement, teams would constantly struggle getting the actual bunter out.
That’s my road to the show character’s MO . Love to see it 👍
Bingo. To make bunting effective, the whole team has to kind of be built around that. Most MLB teams have a bunch of big, slow sluggers, so you can't keep the line moving.
@@Windjammer19No, the whole cycle just needs one really good runner on base, that's the hardest thing. If you already got a fast, probably leadoff hitter, all you need is a No.2 who knows how to bunt, the rest of the lineup can still hit high fly balls if they want.
That's the way to do it. I always prefered seeing someone bunted to third than to second. I know second is technically 'scoring position' but third is a much bigger deal, particularly with less than two outs since a fly ball can easily score the runner.
I never liked the way we score bunting either. We make a distinction between a hit and run and a run and hit but weirdly, if the runner actually tries to beat the bunt out in a sacrifice situation he risks getting charged with an At Bat. How about we just say, "Any bunt that moves a runner over, whether the batter tried to beat it out at first" is a sacrifice. So, for scoring, if they get thrown out, it goes down as a sacrifice. If they make it to first, just credit it as a 'reached first' without giving them credit for a hit. If they don't successfully move the runner over they get credited with making an out like normal. It's always seemed weird to me that for your stats it's actually better to just slowly walk to first base on a sac bunt than to try to beat it out. I mean, yeah, unless you are fast you are probably going to get thrown out, but on a squib if you don't leg it out your coach will yell at you but for some reason on a sac bunt it's fine.
We have a kid on our team who is all you would want in a ballplayer....except in full swing he's more likely to make an out. He's fast aggressive, smart and aware. You find the weakest infielder and make him make the play. Bunting he bats .500.
You didn't mention the times when people bunted to beat the shift. Cano got a double off the Red Sox doing that.
no hardcore shifts anymore tho 😅
all the things that made baseball weird and fun are being torn down and replaced with strike outs and home run derby.
Juiced balls ruined the game
I want to see hitters be hitters and actually swing the bat, bunting isn’t worth it anymore
@@erikfaughtjr.3013 If you're saying the MLB should ban the intentional walk, I'm 100% on board.
Bunting is quite possibly my least favorite part of baseball I’m not even a power hitter but I have gotten hit 13 times more home runs than times I got a bunt down I am who would normally bunt but I don’t because I’m a good contact hitter and if I make contact odds r it’s a better chance I rope it or at the very least hit a shitty ground ball to short resulting in what would have happened in a bunt and for a power hitter it’s even worse of an idea also it’s boring and it sucks especially in practice
@jackhumbach9086 most people don't like what they are not good at. Sucks to suck, as the kids say.
You need to consider the probability of trying to hit and lead to double play, and strike out that couldn’t advance runners at all
Avoiding the double play is the biggest benefit of the bunt imo. When I'm playing MLB the Show, I'm bunting in situations where a double play cripples my chances of winning the game, aka down 1 run late in the game with a runner on first. You know your opponent is gonna be pitching for a double play in that situation 100%, and getting a decent bunt off neutralizes that.
When playing Home Run Derby leads to winning more than playing Baseball, that's when you know the sport is broken.
With the ghost runner on 2nd base in extra moving over the runner with a bunt as the home team is more useful than, joey gallo striking out
I'm glad you brought up the "late in games" bunting as being significant. Like you said, if all you need is the runner on second to score, bunting is a good move, especially with no outs. As long as the person bunting is somewhat skillfull. Back when pitchers did hit, Foolish Baseball did a video called The Dodgers Mastered the Sacrifice Bunt and No One Cared. It was about how great their pitchers were at sac bunting. If you haven't seen it, give it a watch.
Kevin from Momentum is frothing rn.
we love kevin around these parts but this had to be done
@@StarkRavingSportsYou could've left Otis Nixon out of it. Reliving that brilliant "strategy" again nearly got me fired from work for using the naughty words.
Being a Marlins fan watching Jazz, a man with .900 OPS potential, bunt for no reason is liable to give me an aneurysm.
He has .900 OpS potential but he never has one. When you’re playing like straight ass you have to help the team somehow. Bunting is smart.
@@warlordop713 First of all, him bunting is not smart, it does not help the team when he does it, because he almost always does it with a blank slate of bases, and I feel like you’re old school just for saying that. Second, Jazz has stretches of .900 OPS for like 30 games straight when he puts it all together, he’s just inconsistent. You can check for yourself.
When you’re playing like straight ass, employing a strategy that results in you producing like even more ass is fucking idiotic. The best way for him to help the team when he’s off is to grind through the AB’s and keep getting his reps in so he can develop while he’s still young. Not to mention his All-Star year, of course.
@@sendAJtospace The diamondbacks and rangers proved you wrong. Stealing and bunting sac flies are squeezing runs and are good for the team when done at the right times. You’re talking out of your ass at this point. 😂
@@warlordop713 None of that proves that Jazz bunting when he does is helpful in any way. You’re the one talking out your ass and bringing up a couple teams that, while they do the little things at the right times(unlike Jazz)have nothing to do with what I’m talking about. Even liked your own comment while you were at it. Just stick to the subject instead of A) not bothering to read the comment and just ignoring it, and B) preaching stuck-in-your-ways strategy while completely ignoring situational value in the EXACT same way that Jazz does, please.
The most important takeaways I got from this are that Mike cares about Backyard Baseball 2005 and M&S at the OWG, two sports games I love
I honestly feel like you’re missing the point of bunting, or at least you didn’t bring up statistics that counteract this point. The point of bunting, at its core, is to advance a runner. It can also be used to avoid a double play, and occasionally (but not often at all) to beat the shift. I’d be very interested in the stat comparison of the first two categories for bunting vs attempting to get a hit, because the main stats you provided were just looking at bunting as a way to get on base.
Regardless it was a well scripted video, and I appreciate the comparison, stats, research, and evidence used for the area of bunting you tackled.
His focus on the OBP of sacrifice bunts was really weird to me. Like no shit it's low, the whole reason they're bunting is that they're willing to accept an out in order to advance the runner. The batting average of bunting for a hit is much higher, as you'd expect.
@@DarthLeon2 yeah not super sure why he didn’t actually address the stats of the main point of bunting, but it’s possible that there isn’t clear stats for it.
Bunting owns because you can do it to break up a no-hitter and piss off the "Unwritten Rules" guys.
Old man comment. I'm almost 60. I remember the Mets playing the A's in the 73 World Series. The game has changed so much that you can't really call it Baseball anymore. Up until the late 80's and early 90's starters actually completed games. In 73 Jim Palmer had 16 complete games. Most pitchers threw 280-290 innings and I never remember hearing stories about them blowing their arms. Baseball used to be exciting. Now it's all about home runs and strike outs. Every hitter is trying to go yard and strikeout totals have more than doubled. Pitchers are all trying to throw 100mph fastballs. Many amateur draft picks wind up needing Tommy John surgery before they are even drafted.
The climax of the movie Major League demonstrates your final point perfectly.
This method is used as kind of a mind game to pressure the pitcher and infielders to keep on their toes as it’s mainly used to advance runners on base and bring home the third base home on an affordable sacrifice play.
The Japanese has been using this and masterfully executed it. Their overall skills in worlds tournament has been proven us wrong that we baseball is also and could be very statistical and technical to win games.
Yeah, if your corner infielders have to play shallow to watch for the bunt you have less reaction time when the hitter slaps one. That's why the fake bunt, if the hitter can get it down, can be so devastating.
And while it's not impossible, it's harder to show... If you've got enough speed to force the infielder to play a couple steps in to watch against the bunt... how much does that improve your batting average on the rest of the at bats. To isolate that stat you'd have to get a big enough sample size of enough players so that you could compare their batting averages in situations where the infield plays them back (2 out situations, trailing big situations, 2 strike situations) to when the fielders are in, and then somehow control that for how they are being pitched since a pitcher is going to throw different pitches with 2 outs or a big lead or 2 strikes).
Way back in the day I used to play Earl Weaver baseball. The game automatically moved the fielders back with two outs. If you had any idea how to bunt and a reasonably fast runner you could basically get an automatic runner. (That game is so old that even if you do manage to emulate it you can't play it... the timing was based on the clock speed of your computer, and once you got into the early Pentiums the game was unplayable.)
Bunting is down and the Yankees demand their pitchers throw sliders all the time. Neither is a good thing.
If the batter bunt and the ball is landed into the foul territory it counts as of strike regardless, and it even called for the third strike as of strikeout after committing two strikes. Is that true?
I love the Jonah hill “because he gets on base” clip. I can see that meme a million times and it will still be funny to me
It doesn't help that because of the focus on home runs that most players don't actually spend time learning how to bunt. If you watch players footwork you can tell if they know how to bunt or not. If you pull your front leg out the head of your bat tends to dip, which leads to popups.
I never liked the pure sacrifice bunt... the ones where the batter doesn't really leg it out to try to encourage the throw to go to first. That is giving away the out. Leg it out. I've seen guys get thrown out on what should have been errors. Put some pressure on them even if you are slow. I never liked the hit and run either... run and hit. In a run and hit you put more pressure on the catcher and if your hitter misses the runner isn't a dead duck. Never give away outs.
I wish they hadn't killed the shift. I like that someone who could bunt could negate it. If MLB wanted to encourage small ball a bit would be to get rid of the third strike foul for bunts. The risk would be that some people might use it try to just keep fouling balls away, but you still have a chance to catch the popups or foul tips, but right now the risk of going up to bunt is that you are likely to fall behind in the count and then be forced to swing with 2 strikes. When the other easy option to get to first is to draw a walk bunting is a risk if you aren't really fast.
Never would i have thought “a video all about bunting is actually going to be intresting” but you have proved me wrong. Keep up the great work
It’s only stupid when You aren’t good at it. Don’t do it if you’re not good at it. It works in a lot of situations.
Calling a HR a feat of strength? Maybe in the 50s.
Yeah, you're right, and I've been saying this to baseball fans for a while. Bunting is often not the best strategy, and it shouldn't be overused. However, it's so unexpected that when used in a high-pressure situation, it can really catch the opposing team off guard.
Saying that players hit .233 when bunting for a hit is flawed.
It's assuming that everyone doing this is good at it and taking out the idea that there are different skill levels involved.
So batters could strikeout with runners in scoring position instead.
Atleast it isn't a double play lol
absolutely criminal that there wasn't a coach kent murphy cameo
That dude has gone silent, where is he? I love watching his videos!
stunlocked hearing the Gamecube Backyard Baseball OST
The players are making too much money now too be asked to bunt. I'd bet 75 percent of guys who are asked to bunt end up striking out.
Literally the only time it ever made sense was in the NL with a pitcher who couldn't hit a softball lobbed their way.
At least your runners got a base out of it.
But for literally anyone else it was so stupid.
"Each lineup has guys who can do this" - shows replay of the cleanup hitter hitting a home run...
Having not followed baseball in over 25 years, I just noticed something in this video. When did catchers start kneeing on the ground with one knee? (instead of squatting)
It's been within in the last 10 years or so. Part of the reason why catchers do it these days is because pitchers breaking pitches have so much more movement these days. As a result, the catcher needs to be able to move a bit more to get to those pitches so a semi-wild one doesn't end up hitting the backstop. It also allows catchers to release the ball quicker if needed and to my understanding, can reduce wear and tear on a catchers knee.
some of it is also the way some catchers have started framing pitches. where they start with their glove super low, nearly on the ground and raise it up to meet the ball as its coming in. It makes it easier to frame low pitches up into the zone to get more strike calls. framing upward seems to look more convincing than dropping your glove down to catch a ball (even ones already in the bottom of the zone)
I remember when Luis Matos had his fingers broken trying to bunt.
Is that music Super Nintendo, “Mario Paint”? If so, awesome.
Was that a bad bunny instrumental in 11:10 ???👀
Is that backyard baseball music I hear???!!!!
Sacrifice bunting Is a dumb play, but people underestimate bunting for a hit like if you fast it's a 50/50 chance
Kent murphy’s been saying this for a decade
All I got from this is that batters have become worse at actually hitting and just mindlessly swing for the fences.
This makes 0 sense lol
@@BrightHornet936 Good hitters are able to place the ball not just rip the ball in half hitting it as hard as possible.
@@Incubus635 not true at all lmao.
I dunno man, my main takeaway from this video is that the average obp for bunting since the universal DH rule .032 HIGHER than the average leaguewide obp across those 3 seasons
Bunting still has a role in the game imo, I think diversity in ideas to reach base is better for the game than not.
I miss non-DH baseball...
Yes I miss free outs every 3 innings at worst‼️
The way game theory works, it will be optimal to bunt at least _some of the time_ as long as the value of bunting _when the defense does nothing at all to anticipate it_ is greater than the value of not bunting in such a circumstance.
It's a "mixed strategy Nash equilibrium", similar to rock-paper-scissors
11:08 why is Bad Bunny playing in the background💀😂
You could bunt on the shift. But no they took it away. Bunting is a great tool of used correctly. You are wrong
But,Takahiro Arai-yes, the same power-hitting corner infielder who won the '06 World Baseball Classic-do a bunt-heavy approach during this year's Central League Climax Series. Explain.
i think you may mean "counterintuitively" than "paradoxically" I'm not sure what the paradox between bunting showing up less yet being more impactful is, but i do think the intuition would be that if you do it more it would be more effective therefore less effective strategies won't show up, such as bunting.
Forgot about the Mariners bringing back the turn ahead the clock uniforms
Tomorrow’s headline:
“CZcamsr Stark Raving Sports’ Car and Home Vandalized Overnight.”
Suspect left behind a “King of Juco” bat and spray-painted “Lift Small, Bunt the Ball” on hood and front door.
Another thing you forgot to mention is how much better defensively most 3rd baseban are now. So many more great athletes are out on the field.
Idk, man. Trout has a .375 BA on bunts (granted, small sample size with 8 ABs and 3 hits) and he's still got 96th percentile speed... it would be fun for Trout to catch the defense off guard by laying down a bunt. Although his recent injury troubles might keep that from happening.
And his first hit was a bunt single, which is also cool.
Speaking of bunting Game 2 of the ALCS I kinda of wish when the bases where loaded 0 outs and they brought Diaz in to PH they would of told him to bunt.
Lift Small Bunt The Ball.
This is like saying "The QB sneak doesn't make sense." Situationally, bunts can be incredibly useful and also minimize risk of bad outcomes. Guy on 1st, no outs, late in the game? I'd rather bunt him over rather than hope that I don't get rolled up into a double play. 3 true outcome people are irritating as shit.
Two types of people: those who love curling and those who haven't heard of it yet
My favorite sport every four years
My guy is playing Bad bunny and Tainy Callaita ??10:46
Mark Lemke would go ballistic over this video.
A lot of bunts are bad and unsuccessful because a lot of players don't actually know how to bunt correctly. You don't need to be very precise to get a hit with a bunt when you're fast, and you don't even need to be that fast. There are so many pitchers that are comically terrible at making a good throw to literally any base for what should be easy outs, so why not take advantage of that when one of those pitchers is on the mound? Power hitters are more common than ever, but if teams could fill most of the lineup with power hitters, then why wouldn't every team just be the Braves?
I think you also have to factor in how some players use bunting to get out of a slump, improving their overall numbers as well.
Have to disagree with you. The coolest bunt of all time is any bunt Ichiro did during his career because he made them look so cool.
Bunts for hits have always been relatively rare in my life time and Im in my late 40s
But moving the runner into scoring position if Im deeper into the lineup is still sometimes the right call imo
Lot of factors including your pitcher and the opposing team goes into it
I would use it on MLB the show more often if it weren't so easy to steal bases
You worry about missing out on the guy hitting a double and i worry about hitting into a double play
Of course NONE of this matters if the batter can't bunt and that's sadly a reality
The easiest thing to do in a really difficult sport
Many managers don't care if their players can't do it
I remember a story where David Ortiz did it successfully to move the runner along early in his career and he was basically reprimanded
But that was his mindset at the time. He's right around my age btw
the thing I will never get from Baseball fans is the fact that they don't understand how much the game changes over time. Rule changes are as much a part of baseball, as the fuckin mud.
Sac bunting to move a player to 2nd doesn't make sense anymore either when the current success rate for stolen bases is about 80%.
what if the player on 1st... isn't fast? Like no one should bunt Acuna from 1st to 2nd, but maybe it's worthwhile to get a Yordan Alvarez or a Corey Seager there in certain situations?
Damn, did Big Z dirty on the shout out.
you didn't talk about the squeeze play
"This video is sponsored by the king of juco"
The changes to base size and pickoff rules also make it sillier to bunt. Its easier than every to move a runner from base to base.
Eh, steals may be back up a bit, but compared to the heyday.
Ketel Marte throwing down a first inning bunt against Bobby Miller was ruthless
The art of bunting has been lost over the years because hitting HRs is sexier.
The bat is not suppose to move when the ball is hit and it should stay in the infield and stop where the pitcher or 1st baseman must go retrieve it.Grassy fields are ideal for bunting
Remixing wake me up huh
and now with Francona's retirement, we're going to see even FEWER bunts
This video sumed up: "if you don't agree with three true outcome baseball, you're dumb"
So my question is what about bunting against the shift. I know that isn’t a thing anymore but when there isn’t a third baseman to field it with a lefty up that success rate has got to skyrocket
Well there’s no shifts when it would work but if there were they would be effective but most hitters that had that shift were more likely to hit a solo home run then get a bunt down make sure it goes to the right spot then have someone else drive u in
Its interesting how the amateur advance metrics guys are so exact with their data and holistic in their knowledge of effective strategy in MLB..
Yet lack the self awareness to realize they're presenting their case in an overtly smug and condescending tone...
Just because no one takes the time to learn the skill doesn't mean the skill doesn't have value.
Really good video
Baseball needs to get back to some of it's core fundamentals. Ghost runners have no place in the game.
I think it's because they just don't practice it enough, so they are not good at it. And the fact that teams realized that bunting isn't better than hitting a home run just made the players not practicing the bunt therefore not being good at bunting
Coach Kent Murphy approves this message
Shout out to John Locke.
Small ball is what makes baseball so great
As someone who hates the bunt, I totally understand what you said at the end, but that means it still has to be so rare that it surprises people.
So the difference between swinging out of your shoes and bunting is only 16 points of batting average? That is really not that much of a difference.
Yea but a bunt gets u 1 base maximum 2 if we were back a while ago and there was some wack shift that’s illegal now and u hot lucky where it bounced and u we’re really fast. Basically swinging not only has a higher batting average which doesn’t matter that much anyway but it has a much higher ops which is a better stat bc it shows how many bases u average an at bat not how many hits u get bc in the grand scheme of things whoever gets the most bases usually scores the most runs
It wasn’t the point of the video but I just realized how the traditional leadoff hitter has become almost an ideal 9th batter in the modern game
*Grabs heart* .. Omg no... not the Otis Nixon last out bunt in a World Series elimination game. I can't take many more video reminders of how my Braves have done something dumbfounding in the playoffs. 😢
That title is terribly misleading.
The way a team is built matters with bunting. And of course.. the situation at the time does even more so.
A team like Texas bunting heavily in a game will look A LOT different from a team like Arizona bunting heavily.
And yes, yes. I watched the video. I know he agrees with this sentiment in the last couple of minutes of the video. That's why I addressed the title, specifically.
How can bunting be bad at the same time K’s are so high? If there’s such a high chance for a weaker hitter to strikeout, then it makes sense to bunt a guy over or in during a critical moment because at least it accomplishes something
A runner on 2nd with 1 out is about as likely to score as a runner on 1st with 0 outs. You only sac a guy from 1st to 2nd if the upcoming hitters are significantly better than the bunting hitter.
A runner on 3rd with 0 outs is much more likely to score than a runner on 2nd with 1 out. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out are much more likely to score than runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs. We're talking about 5% increase in chance to score by bunting the guys over. Unless the current hitter has a 5% greater chance to knock the runners in than the future hitters, bunting makes a lot of sense. Especially when you add in that possibility of the bunt resulting in a hit, and swinging resulting in a double play.
None of these uses of the bunt were addressed. Just a disappointing bunt hit piece.
bunt average went up after universal designated hitter bc the pitchers were also bad at bunting duh
Maybe with the devaluing of speed and the stolen base, pro players got worse at bunting.
You haven’t seen dalton varsho
Bunting still has value depending on the player using it, and why he is using it. Altuve bunting to beat the shift with his speed, Maldy who bats below the mendoza line putting a runner in scoring position.
In 10 years the bunt will be most exciting play in baseball
If a player can bunt it is better than a strike out.
It's weird how you used math to say bunting is dumb then showed numbers that mattered at the end then bunting is now awesome