Pac-12 realignment: does a rebuilt conference have REAL media value? l College Football Podcast
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- čas přidán 19. 07. 2024
- As the Pac-12 plots its next realignment move to rebuild the league, do they have any real monetary value as they seek a new league and a new media deal? Retired Fox Sports President Bob Thompson joins the show to discuss their options.
On today's episode of Locked On College Football, Spencer McLaughlin is joined by Locked On recruiting insider Brian Smith. He and Spencer discuss the impact of 5-star TE Linkon Cure choosing Kansas State, and the impact of Kyle Whittingham announcing his DC his his replacement-in-waiting. 11:55
The Big 12 preseason media poll was released with Utah and Kansas State occupying the top 2 spots. Why is Colorado 11th? Spencer also gives a "hot take" that might not be so hot. 21:10
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Pac-12 realignment: does a rebuilt conference have REAL media value?
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It would be a tough sell. The MWC will be getting a new TV deal in two years. Assuming that deal is around 8 million per school (don't tell me they are worth less than the Big East). If the PAc-2 wants to break off 6 or more MWC schools then their deal will need to be more than that 8 million per year + 20ish million per school to get out of the MWC. So we are talking at a minimum 15 million, probably closer to 20 if it is an all streaming deal like with Apple.
You might get told that the Big East is worth more than the Mountain West. Consider that the MWC has declined from their initial value 25 years ago.
The exit fees usually drop to 0 when the previous deal expires. They don't have to sign the new deal.
I would take 6 from the MWC, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Air Force, San Diego State, UNLV with the Beavs and WSU. Then hopefully we can get Cal and Stanford back to get to 10. Maybe join forces with ACC and form the leftovers after teams leave and form a 10 team east division with the 10 team west of the above schools i mentioned. Great for tv revenue due to huge time window to fit in for broadcast east to west across the country.
The networks and other media have slots to fill. Once they determine values for those slots, they will make offers to G-5 conferences because there is a saturation point in the B1G-SEC where some games are only viable regional à la the NFL. So if your conference can negotiate a 10-12 week slot for $100 to $120 million, it makes lots of sense to only divide it 8-10 ways. Probably insures more attractive games. Of course 2 slots adds more. The old Pac 12 after Dark slot has only one viable conference that fits.
We need to get through this most painful part in realignment and finally get to a tier 1 and 2 system. Once the tier 1 teams are in place in BIG/SEC then regional tier 2 conferences would be real beneficial a PAC12, B12, and ACC will probably realign each other, most after 2030. Then can work together and with the tier 1 for a path forward. At this point we are still breaking down the old system
Until we know how big that tier 1 will be it is hard to do what you are suggesting.
@@dgart7434 oh this will be a very long and painful process. We generally can figure out who is left. About 10 teams in the ACC and B12. Probably the hardest part will be those schools/conferences not added accepting tier 2 status.
@@adamb6370 I disagree that it is that simple. First off you are assuming two things that may not be true. That a "tier 1" will be around 45 teams. And that all current B1G/SEC teams will be included.
Neither are set in stone. A tier 1 could be as little as 24 teams leaving the likes of Northwestern and Maryland on the cutting floor. Or it could be 60+ which means most of the current P4 will get in. We don't know what the media landscape will look like down the road.
@@dgart7434 well I think the following expectations can be made. I agree whether it’s 40-48 is still undecided.
1. No one is going to get kick out. At least not yet….sorry
2. You have to be too 40/50 national brand.
3. You have to have a top 40 program…across the board.
4. You have to be a top 2 program in your state.
5. Based on state size, there will be a limit of tier 1 schools eligible Ex: Iowa gets 1, NC gets 2, California/Texas/and Florida get 3.
If you apply those rules in order a clear ranking develops.
UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson, Miami, Stanford, Kansas, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. I also count ND becuase I think they will be allowed Tier 1 as a single independent but will have scheduling requirements to meet.
Relegation is part of my dream.
It depends on who they can get to join up. I assume a super-G5 type Pac-X would have a value somewhere between the AAC (9M year per team) and the Apple offer to the Pac10 (23M per year). I saw a report last year (before Stanford and Cal left) that a rebuilt Pac was discussing a deal in the 15M a year range, with 17M a year to OSU/WSU/Stanford/Cal and 14M to the newcomers (SMU/Memphis/Tulane/USF/SDSU/Boise State/Fresno State/Colorado State).
If I was a good G5 program like SDSU or Memphis I would not take 14M to fly around the country and have all my games stuck on Apple TV.
@@dgart7434 You would if it was twice what you are making now, which it would be.
@atgdcommish608 not really. TV exposure has value to schools. Why do you think the MAC and C-USA take crap payouts from ESPN to play on Wednesday and Tuesday night?
Because a few million less is worth it if it means they get on national TV in front of millions of Americans who might be looking at colleges for them or their kids to go to.
Why in the hell would SMU leave the ACC for less money and notoriety in the PAC. We realize this is about money right.
@@DB-rw9ld SMU is not leaving. That was just a rumored offer from before they joined the ACC. I assume the deal would be a little lower without Stanford and SMU. I don't think Cal moves the needle either way.
The PAC 12 died when it didn’t take the media rights deal it was offered and the Big 12 took it. WSU and OSU just need to join the MWC. It makes no sense for the best programs in the MWC and the ACC to leave and pay an exit fee to join the PAC 2. I feel for those two schools, but grateful the PAC 12 turned down its media deal since my university could had been left behind without a home.
Amen brother. The forces that be killed the market to get value elsewhere. Will Mike Parker still be calling games on the radio?
As far as I know, yes he will
I’m pretty confident that the Pac will merge with the ACC, but I still stand by the idea that if the pac can convince AAC schools to jump on board for a long term conference, then a temporary 8 team conference can be built for ‘26 and the rest of the MW schools that are valuable can be added in ‘27 when the poaching penalty isn’t there.
I also think poaching the top MW and AAC schools can bring more value to the PAC than what the AAC has.
Voices like Bob's are the ones we need to be listening to for understanding how the Pac 12 will approach media value. Could they garner something the double digits (mid $15)? I am very hopeful that the Conference will rebuild with the best football brands from the Mountain West as well as brands in the Central Time Zone.
I can answer that in a word: No.
I don't care, it's the only college football I'll be watching
I totally respect Bob Thompson's thoughts on the subject. My follow up thoughts would be:
If MW is getting $4 million on a deal signed in 2020, how could they not get a least $8 million in 2026? Don't media rights value increase?
If MW vote to dissolve (9 schools needed to vote), why would the PAC 12 take 9 MW schools? It saves the war chest but wouldn't that still dilute the media rights value per school?
If PAC 12 agrees to take 6 MW schools and pays $100 million (scheduling agreement and MW exit fee of $3 million per school) that's giving half the war chest to a competing G5 league.
Whatever happens will happen but if conferences keep dying off I will be strictly an NFL guy. Which is sad, because I've been a college football fan for over 20 years.
All good things come to an end.
If you take 6 MWC schools, the penalty for the Pac-12 would have to pay counting the breach of agreement fee is $73 mil. Paying that much for 6 G6 schools seems absolutely ridiculous. I ran the numbers and they're only going to have less than $15 mil after they pay everything. And that isn't counting paying for any schools from the MWC. Their best option is to absorb the entire MWC into the Pac-12.
Fair question, but MW schools could get more value in multiple ways by being associated w/OSU and WSU
Nah. Colorado still a 🤡 show.
Does the name “PAC” actually have any cachet at this point? Larry Scott and George Kliavkoff damaged the brand beyond repair.
It sure does.... Lots of national alumni with good jobs across the country. Not to mention tradition among the old timers like me (the ones with money to spend that advertisers want to attract.)
OSU, WSU, Tulane, Boise St., Fresno St., San Diego St., Colorado St., UTEP, Rice and maybe Idaho has all major sports and be compelling enough to get a decent media package. Plus enough teams are close enough to each other the cost of travel can be kept down. And who knows after a season or two maybe Stanford and Cal go the cost of travel is way to high and maybe you can pull them back from the ACC.
Rice probably won’t leave to travel to the west coast when they’re already in a decent conference with a good geographical footprint.
Wouldnt it be ironic if the ACC actually did get pulled apart and the new rebuilt PAC 12 became something like...Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford, California, San Diego State, SMU, South Florida, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College and UConn, good enough to still be a P4 but still probably only getting $18m-$20m per.
How do media ratings work today? Is it per device (TV, iPad, iPhone, Computer) or still per household/location? If you record it and watch it later is it the same as watching it live? If I turn on 5 devices in one house how does that get counted? To get a better media deal do the Cougs/Beavs start a campaign to jack up the ratings?
It would probably go streaming and depend on the number of actual views. That was the final Apple offer to the Pac10 (after UCLA and USC left), around 23M per year, with upside if viewership went up. The Pac10 should have taken the deal (and added SMU and San Diego State).
SDSU 💪
Memphis 💪😊
@@chitowntiger1 I like Memphis, they deserve a P4 invite.
@@DayOneRob I agree.
As the infamous line in Jerry McGuire goes, “Show me the money!” Show me the money, Jerry. Such is sports as many sports are now in the entertainment category, not really athletics category.
Reverse merger then add Montana Montana state Sacramento State and UC Davis from the Big Sky . Get the PAC 12 to 18 teams so they have enough teams to compete with the other conferences
FCS schools will not be on the table
This Bob Thompson dude doesn't really know anything. Yawn. Get the superior John Skipper on there. He actually knows something real.
Tipsy Skipper > Sob Thompson