What is the State of LEGO Investing in 2023?
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- čas přidán 12. 07. 2024
- In this video I talk about the state of LEGO investing in 2023. I dive into some factors that could both possibly affect LEGO investing and if you should jump in a start LEGO investing here in 2023. If you are interested in more content focused around LEGO investing feel free to give me a like a subscribe to stay up to date on all things LEGO investing.
Interested in more content around LEGO investing? Promos? and my ebay store check out my link tree here: linktr.ee/jakes_bricks
Time Codes
0:00 - Intro
1:54 - LEGO Price Increases & Inflation
6:41 - Economic Recession
11:57 - Shelf Life
14:40 - Outro
#LEGO #legoinvesting #investing
I like what you said about how this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. This is to help fund your hobby.
Thanks Wumbo! That's why I started the channel!
I love what you said about helping people fund their LEGO hobby through LEGO investing. That’s what it should be about! ❤
That’s why I started this channel 💪💪
Great video! The video set up looks great and your observations about Lego not retiring sets as often struck a chord. Thank you for the pointers Jake!
Glad I could help!!
Love to hear about your thoughts about this, well done as usual :)
Thx!!!
Biggest thing I took from this video is Holy sh*t what have you done to make your camera quality this good? Not even just the image but the colors on all the boxes are BEAUTIFUL. Lol
Hey LifeBricks! The only thing that changes is I added led light strips to light up the boxes behind me! But I agree it really does increase the quality! Thx for the feedback
@AJSbattles33 Hi
Hi, gr8 to see next vid👍 Yo're one of the first who talk about potential investing problems. Most are overhyped and still blindly looks for best ROI. I would add that LEGO is still good investment but now it is harder to pick "the winner" in short term when you keep liquidity as one of your invest priority.
Thanks Maciek! I really hope to offer a balanced perspective. It certainly isn't all rainbows and roses but it is a great way to fund your building hobby
Great video you made some great points that I didn’t think of keep the great content coming
Thx Tony!!
My favorite Lego CZcamsr. Keep it coming.
Thanks Michael! Appreciate it!
@@JakesBricks your backdrop looks clean, love it. Take it to the next level. Backlight the aisles. 10$ leds should do.
@@michaelsmith5583 I did just put up led strips on the ceiling! You can kinda tell but I probably need more
considerate thoughts, thanks
👍👍
Beautiful analysis!
Thanks Sabrina
One other issue: Just because a set hasn't retired, doesn't mean it will be in stock. With the supply line issues and the longer shelf lives, retailers might not be able to procure sets or they may not have enough room to store them. This happened a lot in 2022.
So what to do? Buy your best picks early, maybe? Or wait and see regarding the potential recession? Double-down, or slow down?
This is great analysis and yes there are sets that are often consistently out of stock! For those set specifically if you think they will be good investments it may be smart to pick them up at MSRP if you can even find them in stock. LEGO has gotten better over the last two years with some of their stock challenges but they certainly still exist
I'll be going after the star wars diorama sets, I can imagine they'll be something people will want to have all lined up, especially once they release more. They're like the architecture sets for star wars.
100% Agree they should do very well!
Was wondering when we’d get a new video! You could get the Batwing at the discount price for a couple 10-minute windows. And Lego also price matched itself afterward.
Oh shoot I missed my opportunity on a price match 😩
I've recently started flipping Lego where I buy bulk Lego in big boxes, sort it back into the original sets. Recently got a lot that included the BB-8 diorama.
I'm wondering what your thoughts are on this method - it takes aaaages sourcing and tracking inventory to recreate sets but I'm hoping it will be worth it. Currently still sorting through about 30kg of Lego
I would say that is a very fun way of flipping LEGO but for TVM (time value of money) it usually isnt worth it in my experience. But if you have fun doing it then it is 100000% worth it
Wow, the spam bots here in the comment section are really annoying… Anyway. Jake, you have the best Lego content on CZcams, hands down! And congrats on buying those UCS Star Destroyers. Have you seen the prices on Ebay? Damn!
Insane right! Shocked at how much they have grown! And yes I gotta start blocking some people to avoid the spam!
Question: what are sets from 2020 (or two-3 years) are you selling? Can we see the return of investment?
I might make a whole video to talk about this
@@JakesBricks that would be great and maybe one how to start investing on smaller scale, the do's and don'ts
A lot of sets have a discount tag after they were sold out in Europe. Still pondering about the reason.
Clear out stock in store I believe. It’s a system thing If I’m correct
Bought home alone before the price jump. Interested to see how it plays out down the road
Great snag and a great set! I would imagine it would do well!
Please make i video about which sets (cheap, mid or High cost end) is the best for Lego investing. Which sets increase most in value, or what are easiest to sell in relation to small or bigger sets (cheap or more expensive)
Will add this to my video ideas list
What up Jake 🎉
Wassup!
📈🚀
To the moon!
I feel like Lego investors have disposable income. They can sit on inventory for a long period of time; their real constraint is space as the stuff takes up a lot of it. Maybe best to get rid of some inventory now to have space to invest while the economy is in the bottom of the wave. I know nothing, but I feel in the American economy, the worse is yet to come.
I would agree with this 100%. But I am hoping to help other LEGO collectors who can't afford the hobby fund their hobby through LEGO investing. So even if you have a very small amount of disposable income I hope this can help!
Great video but I think we’re in for a rough road ahead I hope,I’m wrong but the signs are there
I hope not… and then part of me hopes so. It’s a weird place to be 🤷♂️
The biggest question I have is regarding Legovesting, is actually worth it now? It seems a lot of people do it now. The secondary market seems pretty large, is it hard competing to get things sold and are you actually moving enough units per week to make it a viable hobby? I would factor in the monthly cost of storage, such as the room you are storing them in. Even though that is a dedicated storage space, it is still an extra room or area that can not be used for anything else. Also all the legos in the room might have a secondary market of thousands and thousands, but realistically what would your chances be to completely cash out in a 6 month window? It seems like the juice might not be worth the squeeze as a real investment, possibly a hobby that has the potential to fund its self? Do you keep a running list of quantity and money you have invested and then work out a balance when things are sold? Also do you pay more in insurance against a fire or something?
I guess it comes down to your definition of worth it. I do still think it’s worth it. Yes Lego investing is more popular than it was five years ago and there is certainly more competition, but there are plenty of sets that just retired here at the end of 2022, and plenty of them are already at 50 to 100% return on investment just three months after retiring, there will always be winners no matter how much competition there is. Yes, I do keep a running list of sets that I have sold what I’ve paid for them, and like for my own personal knowledge and for tax purposes. I recommend in a few other videos that LEGO investing is best between 2 to 3 years of holding time. If you were looking for a quick six month returns, it’s probably not your best bet. Hope this helps.
@@JakesBricks I understand that even now retired sets are marked up to 50% to 100%, but that’s not the actual return on investment, and that doesn’t mean that someone will buy your set. Considering equivalency and inflation, storage costs, shelving, time put in, it doesn’t seem like it is as profitable as it appears. For instance inflation has been up around 6 percent the last 3 years, so that puts the dollar you already spent around 18% weaker than the dollar you get when you sell a set after three years. I’m just wondering if these factors are considered. On average an extra living space has a value of 15% on a house. That’s just the selling price, not factoring in the interest rate. If a room is dedicated to storage, you are paying 15%+ on the mortgage for Lego storage, unless you own your house outright. It seems like on average after 3 years you have already lost at least 33% of the original dollar invested, and that’s after you put the set on market. If it sits longer than 3 years before selling, the loss of buying power goes up on the invested dollar. I’m just wondering if these factors are considered by Lego investors. Everyone says ROI was 50% on this sold set, but that’s not really true considering. Thanks for the reply, I’m just curious
@@user-tz2zz5ij1s I think everything you said is pretty correct and all things to consider. Storage is the biggest challenge certainly. Storage costs should definitely be considered but I don’t think LEGO investing can truly become a fully run business out of your house. Just a side hustle to help collectors fund their building hobby. If you bought a Disney castle 5 months ago for $350 and sold it today for $500 then you have $150 to spend on a LEGO set for yourself. Although all of your questions are truly only answered with time. Check back with me in 2 years ha!
@@JakesBricks thanks for the input. Any hobby that supports itself and is fun is well worth it. Thanks again for getting back to me, and I do enjoy the videos!
I think London Architecture is on the market for so long because it's also a souvenir in London shop
Ya waaaaaaay to long!
I am very interested in the hobbit and lord of the rings lego. I am looking for the sets on 2nd hand sites in good condition. From people who want to get rid of them or because they need the money. So I grab 30 to 50 euros per set. I just started with this. Do you think hobbit and lord of the rings is still worth it. And is this kinda a good way!
*?
I don’t think the older LOTR sets are good for investing today but the newer sets could be. But if you are able to find them cheap then any LEGO set is a good buy
Im an investor in different assets. Crypto, Lego and Stocks. Lego and Bitcoin have both the same go-for point: Long-Therm they WILL make a comeback. Im not so sure with stocks right now. Surely... the SP500 is always a save option. But i think alot of companies will take big hits in the following years. However.... Lego-Sets will not lose value while there on my shelfs.... so it doesnt rly matter if i sell them now or in 3 yrs. Same goes for bitcoin. It can come down and down as much as it wants... the new all time high will always top the old one . So i think im save
Interesting thoughts... I would say a major economic crash could affect LEGO prices on the secondary market... and yes I think with a long enough hold almost all sets could appreciate up past their original high value, for some it just may take a long time
is the Death Star™ Trench Run Diorama a good investment?
Should be decent I just wouldn’t pay MSRP
@@JakesBricks thank you Jake appreciate it
Yeah I totally invest to fund my Lego hobby 😊
*Snorts huge white line of powder off coffee table*
😏😏😏
Will you be doing a video on the top 10 lego sets retiring in 2023 for investing ?
I will! I usually wait until March-May time frame as early lists usually have many changes
Okay, thanks Jake
I think the Bull Market has already started coming back . 👍🏼
💪💪
How do I find out what Lego sets are going to be retired and which one’s aren’t?
Search google.. There are several reliable sources and articles. But my channel keeps you relatively up to date
I stay FAR away from these GIANT box sets for investing due to the shipping cost. And shipping cost will NEVER go down. It would cost 70$+ to ship that thing. Minimum 10yr hold on that Hogs Castle
TRUTH! Its so expensive! But to my surprise sets like the Imperial Star Destroyer are already trending at $1000
I'd be prepared to sit on stuff a long time. Gone are the days in covid where u could flip a 10219 tree house in 12 hours for >100$ profit. People are spending a lot less in this economic environment. More people are into investing. If you go on ebay, mercari, other sites people are selling at cost, if not below cost. It means people are trying to get out at any cost (you don't want to be selling against these people). If you're going to do this now, try to get stuff on sale, at end of production, and be prepared to sit on it for years. Only do it if you don't need the money, lego isn't like stocks and it's tough to liquidate fast.
100% I agree holds may be getting longer... Although there are even a few sets that retired at the end of 2022 that have already jumped by 50-100%. So I don't think the days of quick profits are completely gone but they may be fewer and far between.
The way the world is going I'd be investing in potatoes, automatic weapons, and bulletproof siding.
And eggs!
That Star Wars license expired in 2022...so we are all paying for the new license lol.
Interesting didn’t know that
If the Dollar drops in 2023 then Lego will also have to raise US prices, the Dollar has been strong for 4 years and has kept US retail prices stable.
This is actually a really important fact to consider! Thanks for the comment Keith
Creator sets are very long, shark, ships, castle, others
Long in size? Time on shelves?
i think with a recession looming on the horizon that we can all agree on LGB!
Item will tell…
Buy Lego's to enjoy/build etc. If it goes up in value, it's a "bonus" but don't count on it. With other companies catching up FAST....and kids born in 90s + did NOT play with Legos much. Think of today as a peak of Lego value. IMO, it's all downhill from here....
We will have to see… you cousin be right but I think like everything. People will jump on investing then get out of it. It ebs and flows
The rising tide raises all ships. The increased cost of the new sets (SW) that will someday retire and become more desired also effect the older and already retired sets and make them go up as well.
Very true!
I'm curious how the now retired 501st set will value. Given how popular the set was and the fact so many seemed to have invested in it to some degree.
Ya I am thinking it is overly hoarded and we had a similar set just released... I don't think it will end up doing as well as people were hoping. My personal opinion
Are you concerned about Lego salvaging sets to Walmart and Amazon?
Do you mean like damaged sets or returned merchandise?
The reason sets aren't being retired, is because they are still selling. If a set is making Lego money, they aren't going to stop producing it. Once they start sitting on shelves, and getting discounted, that's when they get retired. Look at any of the discounted sets at places like Barnes and noble. Most sets in the super Mario line, are 50% off and sitting. The queer eye diorama, sitting. The tie piolot and stormtrooper helmets were sitting for ages and got dropped. The imperial droid and scout trooper, tons on the shelves not moving, both retiring soon. It all has to do with sales.
I agree with you mostly… but I think fans have an expectation of new sets every year and they have to clear out the production of old sets to “gamble”
on new sets that they hope will out produce old ones
Sorry to say that but we are in recession now. Tough for budgeting but it might be a good time to buy the old collectable sets with lower prices....
Well if we are it doesn’t feel like it is affecting LEGO collectors that much at this point
Hi Jake can you do a shout out to AT BRICKS pls
I haven't done any shout outs at this point! But keep up your channel love connecting with other LEGO youtubers
@@JakesBricks Thanks I love your channel too
I am going to make very poor financial decisions this year
Well don't do that... 😬
Probably everybody here understands what you mean, but Lego sets are not “commodities” in the economics sense. When you’re talking about the potential effects of a slowdown or recession on Lego sales and selling ( 8:50 ), you keep referring to Lego as “commodities”. Commodities are things that are interchangeable and generally available from lots of sources, often traded world-wide. Crude oil, wheat, aluminum, chicken eggs, corn oil-those are commodities. Manufactured goods can be commodities, but only if they’re largely interchangeable: high fructose corn syrup, ABS pellets, RAM chips. “Plastic building blocks” aren’t a commodity because people have strong brand preferences, and not all brands are intercompatible. “Lego sets” aren’t a commodity because someone who would be very interested in a Lego Hogwarts castle might have zero interest in a Lego Razor Crest. If you care which company it was made by, it’s probably not a “commodity”.
So when you hear economists or talking heads online talking specifically about “commodities” in an economic context, they’re definitely not talking about Lego sets. And therefore you shouldn’t apply economic theories or predictions about how a particular economic circumstance affects commodities demand or prices to Lego selling or investing. If you do, you’re likely to lead yourself wildly astray.
Nat thanks a ton for this analysis. I am surely no where near an economist and my knowledge is certainly limited in that area. Would you classify lego sets as luxuries? Collectibles? What economic category do you think they fall under? Thanks so much for this comment!
Lego is oversupplying the market. When they release 500 sets per year in the end nothing will have value. Who is gonna spend 1000 bucks for a 6 year old set when he has choice out of 2000 new sets for 50/100 bucks
I have the same questions! But I am seeing the imperial Star destroyer, retired in 2022 already at $1100 in value. So someone is paying those prices!
hello, greetings from Italy, I think the recession is already underway here, luck is that in Europe there is a difference in economic possibilities in the different states, I sell on ebay and 80% of my customers are German, since the recession is felt less there and the quality of life is higher, this allows me to have a good return on investment, apart from this, I think that if there is a real global recession, Lego will be forced to lower its prices, precisely because "luxury" goods cannot afford to lose too much, having said that here in Italy there are still old toy shops where I happen to find treasures, the profits I invest in Lego anyway, to conclude, perhaps it is better to buy sets of small dimensions in view of the future so that everyone can afford, in a possible recession, to buy and make an economic collection such as brick headz for example
Love this thoughts and love hearing a perspective from Italy! Thanks for sharing!
If you are using a credit card to invest in lego...😂🤣😅🤣😂
Right!? Some people do!
flawed logic
Explain...
It's a state that shouldn't exist. Investing ruins the hobby
Or helps people fund their hobby. That’s why I started this channel
rly not. It helps people. My first set after the dark ages who got me back into lego was a retired one which i bought for a massive overprize. And im still happy i have it
We have been in a recession for almost a year. No idea why this dude is beating around the bush
What denotes a recession in your understanding? Genuinely curious
@JakesBricks high intrest rates, high inflation, low GDP, low consumer spending, stuff like Lego and other non essential goods on sale like crazy.
the one set is the lopndon bridge, 7 years of shelves
Yes forgot about that one!