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Ranking My Best and Worst Stock Decisions
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 25. 07. 2024
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I try to be really transparent on this channel sharing my portfolio progress every single month as well as all my buys and sells. But rarely do we ever go back to see how previous decisions panned out over timeâŠuntil today. In this video we go through my previous decisions to buy, trim, and sell stocks and see how those decisions performed versus the market performance.
00:00 How I measured best and worst decisions
03:52 My Top 10 Worst Decisions
12:16 My Top 10 Best Decisions
19:16 Takeaways and Lessons Learned
*I am not a licensed professional or a financial advisor. This content should not be taken as financial advice. It is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. All opinions and perspectives are based on my own personal financial situation, experiences, and goals. Please ensure that you do your own due diligence before making financial decisions and/or meet with a professional. Links above include affiliate links, which means I may receive a commission at no additional cost to you.
I stated this many times before. When you invest in stocks, you will always have winners AND losers. You just hope that you have a lot more winners than losers. And, when it comes to investing, everyone has their own opinions on which are good stocks and which are bad stocks. Some people do a lot of research. Some people do little research. You would think doing a lot of research will result in a massive advantage over those who do little research, but it is not an exact science. Over the long run, doing the research should work out better than those doing little research. However, nothing is guaranteed. You just try to do the best you can.
You give a honest level headed approach on your videos
Thanks!
I donât see bad investments, I see bad timing! đ Give it 6 months, and the results will be completely opposite! Unfortunately, I share that lack of patience gene, and it has cost me too. Add it to the list of âlearning experiencesâ, and move on to the next one! đ
For sure, totally agree with that. Iâm 100% confident that MCD and AAPL wonât be on the âworst decisionsâ list in 2,5,10 years lol.
Great video. It's pretty bold to talk so openly about the good, the bad, and the ugly.i think we all have these stories so it's nice to watch this and know it's a learning and growing process for everyone!
Thanks!
I'm really growing to like this channel. I need to go back and watch some stuff from before i found you.
Thanks! Let me know what youâre most interested in and I can send you some links
Great video and concept. Would love to see more in the future, like every 6 month updates.
Love the transparency. Keep up the good work.
Thanks!
id say that over the past 5 years, about 95% of the times ive sold, within 3 to 6 months, i regretted selling it. At this point in my life i really think long n hard before selling. My late step father was a financial planner...he always used to say "show me a market timer and I'll show you a fool".
I think in general those thoughts ring true. In my case Iâm selling based on fundamentals not technicals though. They are companies that Iâm moving on from because either they donât match my goal and strategy (WMT, SCHD) or something changed in their business that I didnât think like (WM, HSY). To me that is not âtiming the marketâ that is monitoring the companies you own and acting accordingly.
But obviously, we all have our process and what weâre comfortable with. I do agree that at some point you need to hold good companies for a while
Matt, as always, another great video with valuable information. I can always take away a lesson from your transparency. Job well done, and keep up the great work, Matt!
Thank you!
Great video! Love this content đđ€
Matt after watching this video it looks like you went from being a dividend investor to a growth investor. I'm happy you found your investing style. Now that rule you are talking about, I assume it is beating the S&P 500. I'm mostly an income dividend investor but I do have a few growth stocks. Anyways happy trails.
I don't really classify myself as "dividend" or "growth" or "value" investor. But I think one point of confusion is that I called/call it my "dividend growth" portfolio. That is based in the idea that I eventually I want this to be a passive income stream with dividend growth that outpaces inflation.
However, I'm still 10-15 years away from retirement. So in some cases it's about getting a market beating return with companies that don't pay a dividend now (or pay one but don't focus on it) but are likely to be quality dividend growth stocks in the future (AMZN, GOOGL, etc). At a minimum they should help me reach my goal of beating the general market and if they never pay a dividend then I can address that in 10-15 years.
That's just my approach to it, hopefully that makes some sense.
great video Matt...interesting to look back at the best and worst...certainly helps me stay focused on what I want to see in my portfolio...just like you do....
I feel itâs impossible to get better if youâre not willing to honestly assess how youâve done đ€·đ»ââïž
Really impressed, hope you will continue and weâll from our side will continue to enjoy yours marathon with you. Iâd like to wish you good luck and fingers crossed on your journey
Thank you!
Hi Matt, Thank you for sharing this great data. There are many mutual funds and ETF outperform S&P500 and probably your portfolio!
Sure, outperformance can be found with any higher risk growth fund, but my strategy is intended to outperform based on repeatable company fundamentals over time. The idea is that it should be less risk than just picking the hot tech ETF or something similar to outperform. Hopefully that makes sense.
Good self reflection. Yea the cycling isnt great, but you need to do it until you find a series of companies youre happy with to hold for the long term. Most of the ones you trimmed or exited were companies with bad future outlooks. Long term youre much better positioned now than 6mo ago.
100% agree, and I donât plan to do as much tweaking as I did to start the year. When I evaluated my portfolio at the end of 2023 versus my goals, I knew I had to make changes and I did. Obviously not everyone will like or understand that, but Iâve tried to at least explain why Iâm doing it and well just all see if the results match the intent
Hi Matt, I really enjoy what you are doing in this space. Thank you for bringing up discussions about how to assess our winners and losers. And I could totally relate to your story about Westworld in your last newsletter! I feel the exact same way about both the show and a few of my stocks! đ
Thank you! I actually started watching Westworld season 1 again after talking about it in my newsletter. SO GOOD đ
@@mattderron It was utterly heartbreaking to see the show slide so far, so fast. Almost worse than a market crash! đ€đ
@@mattderron West world was one of the best show for sure. Now I am going to have to re-watch it again!!!
New subscriber here. Are you basing your decisions more on technical analysis or fundamental approach? Thanks for the video.
Fundamentals. For example - I sold Hershey due to their updated outlook and uncertainty around Cocoa prices. I sold Waste Management because their sustainability investments were going to impact free cash flow for the next 3 years, etc. Obviously not all of them turn out well, but they are based in changes in the business and/or my outlook on the business versus my portfolio goals.
Hi Matt - great video. I really appreciate your honesty and forthrightness in sharing your âlosersâ as well as your âwinnersâ. I wonder if you really truly made bad decisions or if you just had bad outcomes. The two things are not the same, as you probably know. What really matters is the information that was available to you at the time you made the decision. The appropriate use of current information is what makes the difference between a âgoodâ and âbadâ decision. At the end of the day, a lot of price movements and fluctuations in the short term can just be luck đ
You're absolutely right, in life and in markets. In reality, outcomes is what I should've called it. Decisions play a part in outcomes, but not totally. That's partially why I included the market return in my calculation because a stock could've tanked but if the market tanked too...then maybe it was truly something out of anyone's control.
At the end of the day anything related to investing is at least partially based in chance, and any outcome whether it's been 2 months or 16 months or even 5 years is still just a moment in time snapshot of what happened, not why.
Thanks for bringing this up, when I do this again I want to talk about this more. I understood this when I did the video and looked over my results, but it may not be clear to others. I'm actually hoping a few of my big winners or losers change a bunch for next time so I can reiterate that point.
@@mattderron wonderful observation. I look forward to your future conversations on the topic :). Really enjoy your videos and the process you follow đ
Very segment, you should do more of these.
Iâll plan to update it every 6 months or so probably
Thanks for sharing. I assume the breakdown works more on a theoretical level, right? It sounded like you would consider losses (when compared to current prices) on securities you don't own anymore. But you didn't incure actual losses, is that correct?
The avoided losses are considered a type of "win" of decision making if I'm understanding correctly.
Yes itâs a little confusing. If I bought and sold a position then I use the actual dates to determine the result. But then adding in the S&P performance also skews it because technically I didnât âloseâ that part. Itâs theoretical like you said.
But on positions where I sold and then compare to current prices again itâs theoretical in that I donât hold the positions anymore so any gain or loss I didnât really experience. If I used the money to buy something else, then it would be included in that âbuy transaction.â
So you bring up a good point, these arenât real gains or losses. Itâs more like showing the level of potential impact of each individual decision. Not sure if itâs the best way but I tried it out đ€·đ»ââïž
@@malekhakim7436 correct, the idea is that it was a positive decision versus the market performance
Great, thanks for the details. In the decision-making realm these seem to hold as much relevance.
Liked. Subscribed.
Thanks for sharing a different way to analyze the performance, it brings very interesting food for thought! I've had my fair share of good and bad in the past year when I started managing my portfolio, but overall much more positive than when I had a financial advisor so I'm happy with my performance. Experience, knowledge and success come with mistakes along the way...
That's awesome! Glad you're doing well and outperforming even while learnings. Has to be a great feeling!
@@mattderron I outperformed what I thought I could do, not the S&P đ
@dominiquetheeasyminimalist lol thatâs cool. I mainly meant Iâm glad itâs going more positively than what you had going with your advisor. Has to be an awesome feeling
interesting but it really depends if you trim where you put that money going forward
Of course, if I bought something else, itâs then accounted for in the âbuy transactionâ of that stock
Great video and i appreciate you showing your vulnerability. Always making your own choices and getting better at it. Regards and respect from the Netherlands. Ray
Thank you!
Hello Matt, greatly respect your transparency and courage.
Totally understand your "feeling" with MCD. Mine is APPL- I have iPhone SE, iPad & iPod. Wife have iPhone 12, iPad & iPad Mini.
I think both will be just fine long term
Great video Matt, I try not to look at stocks Iâve sold but I always do, lol.
Thanks, itâs good if youâre trying to learn from past actions to be better going forward but yeah it can be torture too lol.
Really what I wanted to know was if the aggregate score was trending in the right direction. Any individual number will change drastically over time I think
Love this video. I've gone back and forth on whether and not to buy WM. Don't own it still.
Hi Matt, is SBUX / MCD /SCHD still worth to invest?
It depends on your goals and what type of companies you want to invest in. Iâm still holding MCD and SBUX, so for me the answer is yes. SCHD is great if you are building a dividend income or want a portfolio that focusing on undervalued dividend payers.
â@@mattderronU mention SCHD is for dividend income, how about MCD and SBUX?
@captainhook4583 they both can also be good for dividend income at a slightly lower yield (2% range) and they tend to have more opportunity for capital appreciation (stock price growth over time)
@@mattderron thanks for the time to explain đ
@@captainhook4583 no worries!
Noticed that some people didnât like that you were trading rather than investing.
Iâm new and confused since it seems itâs a rational decision to try to sell at a higher price.
And reinvest that money into a better investment.
I even wondered that if I should sell VOO at a higher price, then buy again at a lower price.
Other than the fact that we just cannot predict the future, what is the reason that we shouldnât trade? But keep inventing consistently regardless of the price?
This is a complicated topic for sure. In general, most folks will do better over the long term by just constantly adding to their investments over time and not trying to trade and predict market movements.
I think some of the confusion with my portfolio is people are seeing the number of "trades" I've done recently and assume that I'm not "investing"
The changes in my portfolio are mostly due to making sure it aligns to my goals - primarily being able to beat the S&P 500 in total return. My sells were done for fundamental reasons, and not price necessarily.
I sold WMT because it's a low margin slow grower.
I sold HSY because they have high uncertainty with cocoa prices limiting their future growth outlook.
I sold LOW because it was low margin retail with unattractive amounts of debt
I trimmed UNH because of concerns over the healthcare industry and didnt want it to be such a high allocation in my portfolio
I trimmed AXP because I thought Basel III endgame regulations would impact their profitability.
Not every decision will be right or wrong, but people assuming that I'm just "getting in and out of positions" are kind of missing the point of what I'm doing I think.
Bottom line is - if you're just starting out, pick 1 or 2 broad market ETFs and focus on getting in the habit of contributing to your investment account and build it up that way for a while. Once you have a foundation set, you can take more risk and try new things that you're interested in.
Hope that helps.
@@mattderron thank you so much! đ
Could you recommend any resource that I can use to grow as an investor?
@@kyukyu90002 no worries. Honestly I would probably start with these 2 videos on my channel (if you havenât already seen them)
Why to invest in this video - czcams.com/video/ucbzEyqoorA/video.html
How to get started easily in this video - czcams.com/video/N_oBTbcBbYc/video.html
In terms of books, if youâre just starting John Bogleâs Little Book of Common Sense Investing is great for starting with index funds.
Peter Lynchâs âOne Up on Wall Streetâ is an excellent book about individual stocks.
If youâre just starting out though I highly recommend starting with index funds and getting in the habit of investing first. Your income and how much you can contribute will be the most important thing for long term gains. You can always get more complicated with it later. Hope this makes sense.
You confirm that buying/selling individual stocks successfully is very difficult. For myself, it is much easier to stay with ETFs. A "macro" understanding for ETFs is more predictable than what individual stocks may do in the short run.
Yes that's probably true, what you give up in control you make up for with a broader target area. Meaning...you can know that semiconductors are going to be critical going forward and yet not know which ones will win out
@@mattderron Yes.
Matt, I bought Valero and Google after seeing your analysis videos. I wish I could have bought more. Keep spreading the knowledge. Thanks.
Awesome! Hopefully they fit well with what youâre trying to do.
Wow đ€© You bought American Express on my birthday
Buying separate stocks is very expensive lessons to realize that you better buy ETFs.
Anyone can pick a ETF, and many do. Stocks have a different texture and require a special perspective that is unique to one individual.
Money or Assets are granular to one's personal experience, needs , wants and desires, how they are applied to ones life can smooth or create challenges.
Live long and prosperous.
Worst: Holx 2/23 bought was a Schwab A Rating down 8.18%. since 2/23. Bought HNZ -6.98%- thought it was good enough for Buffet. Selling LLY 3/23 Best ASML 3/23 gained 59% sold 3/24; NVID +49% 1/24-3-24
If you ever do a video like this again consider adding time to the equasion.
MCD was among the ones with the longest timeframe and definetly would have been further down the list if you were to look at how much it has lost to the s&p500 per year/month since your trade.
This is interesting, what I showed did include the relative loss to the market though. Ie MCD itself was down 2% and the S&P was up 29% so total impact was -31%. Did you mean something different than that?
I really liked, that you used the acctual market movement to calculate the value of your decisions.
My recommendation is to change the formula from "(your performance) - (market performance)" to something like "((your performance) - (market performance)) / (timeframe)". With timeframe = end of trade - beginning of trade.
So in case of MCD I would round the timeframe to 1.5 years. Then take 30.xx% and divide by 1.5 years to get 20.xx% per year.
Oh I see, so basically do like a CAGR of the decision. Yeah I could maybe do that. Itâll be tough in some cases they werenât more than a year so it wouldnât have changed anything but thereâs something to be said for a decision that is 2 months old vs 16 months old so Iâll think about that. Thanks
Well, I hold 3 from your Worst Decisions list and 2 from the Best Decisions, but I don't think I'll do that exercise because âbeating the S&P500â is not one of my goals. đ
Makes sense, you should evaluate your performance based on your own goals for sure!
I think the conclusion to all this interesting analysis is that investing in the S&P etfs is much less risky and may be s bit less profitable in certain cases but you are not gambling your money on stocks (unless you are experienced like Matt).
S&P 500 index is a great way to build wealth for folks who have no interest in picking individual stocks. Doing that changed our lives for the better when I first started. We still have accounts that are only invested in the S&P 500 index today (like my wifeâs retirement account)
Thank you Matt!
I love APPL :( . I am probably going to add about 50ish shares in the coming months.
Yes long term I think they will be just fine and these prices will look cheap
@@mattderron btw love your videos. I generally like your style of investing I think with time alot of your choices are going to pan out to be winners!
@@NanoWealthGuy thank you! I think they will too, so weâll just have to see. Thatâs what makes this interesting!
dca into the market,
Pulling the flowers and watering the weeds is how i do it. I feel like a king when i dodge a bullet. I have started to buy UNG because I cant find my meds.
Lol, I do that from time to time as well! I try not too though lol
Thanks for sharing
Did anyone else fast-forward to just get to the final numbers and results?đ€Łđ
No worries!
@@mattderron good Job appreciate your transparency. Just wanted to know what results were . Thanks keep up the good work
No problem, it was a long one
Great video, I love it. Great mental exercise.
But I kind of disagree with you and, I will bring the "T" word...
I get it, you are making a snapshot in time of your decisions, so the question for me is: What triggered those decisions, did you lose confidence that the companies were solid profitable companies?
You mentioned "beating the market" and to me that is a bit scary, more on this in a minute.
There are other points but lets go with the above for now.
A snapshot, If you are doing that then the weight of what triggered that selling decision as an investor is huge. The decision must be made because you had decided that APPL, MCD, SBUX were stocks that would not, in time recover.
Beating the market, I think you mean beating the S&P500, still the thought process to me is not of an investor.
It would be interesting to understand what made you think the stock was not worth holding-on for the long run.
Is the stock going to beat the S&P500 over the next ten years vs over the next three months.
So as interesting as your exercise is I see it as a "T"rader" exercise not an "investor" exercise.
You possibly saw some of my earlier comments on my portfolio thinking:
A % is growth, a % is feeders, a (tiny) % is "play"
Growth = solid ETF (the three we talked about before) and some solid stocks (that still have to give me dividends, Aristocrats).
Feeders = Mostly ETF with high dividend returns, those dividends are moved to growth purchases, Jepi, SCHD.... and some stocks that gives dividend but also have high swing valuations.
Play = Not penny stocks but stocks I am willing to take a chance on. Stocks in Lithium mining, stock in Co that might replace/challenge NVidia... and ETF or two touching digital currencies.
I always measure them as % of my portfolio,
What are "Play" stocks/ETF 10%?,
Feeder? 30%,
Growth 60%?
I tend not to "trim for trimming", if the asset is within my allocation % and within my risk/confidence tolerance, I will keep it.
So my portfolio value increases but my risk tolerance is what I manage.
Alright, this post was wayyy too long.
Cheers,
a.
LOL
Not sure if Iâm misunderstanding some of the questions but Iâll try to answer what I think you meant. In terms of ones I sold, I explained why and what changed in those videos I posted when they happened or in my following portfolio update. In terms of stocks Iâm still holding like MCD, AAPL, SBUX I didnât sell those. That is just what the relative decision impact is at this point in time only. I expect them to do well over the long term still and my story hasnât changed for them.
In terms of beating the market, itâs the goal because otherwise I should just buy VOO and not worry about any of this (in theory). I actually enjoy doing this so even if I donât end up beating the market Iâm ok with that. But the idea is that I should have a goal for beating it to justify my time and effort spent.
Matt I love the way you are always super transparent with your followers. However I feel you are a bit too hard on yourself in the sense that investing in the long term cannot by valued appropriately in the short term. You donât hold any lemons in your portfolio so give them time to outperform 3-5 years as a minimum. Also for McDs do include the dividends as they form part of the overall performance so they need to be included I feel. I know itâs hard not to fiddle with the portfolio but honestly the less fiddling and just more dollar cost averaging in stocks you have a high conviction in is the way to go.
I agree with you that long-term investing decisions can't properly be evaluated in the short term. The reason I show these things and talk about them is that this how people react to their own decisions and how others react to our decisions.
I think many times we look at a 30 year price chart and think "oh I'll just do this, easy. I'm a long-term investor." Not realizing that it's up 10%, down 15%, underperforming for 5 years before finally outperforming, etc.
Or "hey you just bought NVDA and it's down 5% are you worried?" No, of course not. But the reality is that our long-term investing decisions get judged either by ourselves or others on a short-term basis all the time.
My approach is simply show it, front and center. Here's how it looks today. Here's the comments I got about it today about how I'm an idiot or a FOMO investor or should just buy an index fund. In one, two, 5 years we can look back and see "oh damn it worked out" because it mostly will. Like you said, I don't hold any lemons, that's by design and a big part of my whole approach. Quality companies over the long term should do just fine.
To me this is the best way to show what it's really like, but that's just my thoughts on it đ€·đ»ââïž
Whatâs your goal with this portfolio? Just maximize return and minimize risk?
I talk about my portfolio goal and strategy in each monthly update. This is the most recent one, my goal and strategy is towards the end - czcams.com/video/TfXbMU15B4Y/video.html
Great video Matt! Many of us like researching stocks so thats another reason to do it vs buying SP500. By researching stocks you are also learning market concepts which you likely wont do if you just DCA into SP500. Over time you will do well as stock pickers cant always identify winners but can definitely identify losers w terrible fundamentals. Do this video again in 2 or 3 yrs to let your picks marinate and I bet you will outperform SP500 easily.
Thanks! I agree, some of these should outperform over time. I think sometimes we forget how short of a time period 16 months is in the grand scheme of things
I don't think comparing against the S&P 500 makes all that much sense, since the alternative to buying is always cash.
It would depend on what you're trying to measure I guess...the point I was trying to get across is how well is my decision making performing versus just getting the market return
I really like your method of defining success or failure (?) By comparing against the 500. I've invested over 40 yrs. , I live a very comfortable retirement and my children will be pleasantly surprised with their inhertance. I have preached the 500 for 39 of those 40 years explaining how many professional investors and managers fail to beat the 500. Buffett fails in a handful of years. So, when I help fund my children's Ira I require that they buy the majority of their purchase with an etf 500. Did I take my advice over the 40 years? Sometimes but mostly not. I enjoy investing, and if you don't panic, don't pay attention to hot tips, and pay attention to the world and products you love, well then it's hard to lose. Mainly I own individual stocks because it's fun, I've done very well but would have been financially better off with a 500 etf or fund. Not happier, just wealthier. No matter what you do - invest. If you don't enjoy it then invest in a 500, in the end people will think you are smart!
100% agree with this, and that's what I've preached on this channel. For many / most people - just investing in the S&P 500 is a great way to go. If you have no interest in doing this research or owning companies or dealing with any stress associated with it. Just buy the index. It works great. It changed my life when I first started investing.
Nowadays I've evolved, learned, and I genuinely enjoy it. So that's why I do it. But I still have other accounts that are just invested in the S&P 500.
Donât forget short term capital gains jumping in and out of stocks every couple months.
Yes depending on account type. My stocks are in 4-5 different account types that I manage under one strategy. All but one are tax advantaged accounts so for the most part itâs not a consideration for me specifically. But yes, people should always consider their tax impact based on their own situation.
In terms of âjumping in and outâ there has been more activity to start 2024 than normal as I readjust my portfolio to better reach my goals, but all of the sells were for done fundamental reasons. I would imagine it slows down going forward.
Now adjust it for risk ;)
Honestly, I think risk adjusted returns arenât meaningful in the context of how a normal person looks at their account. Obviously people should choose investments that meet their risk tolerance and goals, and overall stage in life. But I feel that most people wonât take solace in âbut adjusted for risk you did better than XYZ.â Actual returns are actual returns and either they meet your expectations or they donât.
Just my thoughts on it đ€·đ»ââïž
The market is no longer SP500. The market is the super 5.
Please, for the love of numbers, never add percents to get a net percent again! You can only check the net impact by including the weightings of those decisions. A 30% loss on $100 is nothing compared to a 1% gain on $1M.
I'm a little confused by this. The goal was to determine the net impact of the decision in percentage terms relative to the market return. Of course each holding has it's own weight and dollar impact. But this was about the decision making...not net dollars.
Am I misunderstanding what you're saying?
@@mattderron I think so⊠up until you were adding the percents to get a net (or an average percent) everything was fantastic! Seriously⊠you put out great content! Thank you! The problem is that mathematically, you canât add percents from things with different weights to get a net or an average percent. Itâs related to looking at weighted averages.
A specific example from your video to show the need for weights as measured with the size of the purchase/sale: When you trimmed holdings, the decision was to sell some of it, not all. How much makes a difference. Trimming a tiny amount that generated a net positive requires that there was a large amount left that had a net negative. The result is that the good decision still resulted in a case where the funds did worse than the market.
Thereâs a famous example out there that compares two baseball players. Player A has a better batting average than Player B when facing either a left handed or right handed pitcher. However, Player B can have a higher overall batting average than Player A IF the total at-bats are aligned properly. This can be seen in slightly different context in âSimpsonâs paradox in baseball statisticsâ by creator BK Teach (I have NOTHING to do with them⊠not a plug)
Keep up the great content! :)
Thanks, I understand what you're saying, but I think this is a matter of perspective on what the video was trying to accomplish. I frequently show my full portfolio performance, total return, return by position each month in my portfolio update. That is the "real performance" that takes into account all the decisions, plus weights, etc.
This video was simply trying to show the net "decision making return" relative to the market return with each of the decisions I made. So sure, trimming a position doesn't mean I sold all of it and it's net dollar impact is dependent on all those factors. But I was trying to show a framework for grading decision making versus the market return, regardless of weight.
If the issue is in the title of "ranking my best / worst stock decisions" and then not using net dollar impact, then fine. But ultimately this was about showing the net percentage impact of each decision relative to the market return to grade decision making. Not total performance.
Otherwise, someone could have 1 huge winner and 10 smaller losers and say "I'm winning all is fine" and maybe that's ok. But this was about improving as a decision maker, while my monthly videos show total performance.
"wow you suck, you should just buy the index" đđđ
Hi Matt, I like your channel, but I didn't like your reasoning here. You are judging how bad or good you investment is by price which is the most misleading thing one can do.
Sure, I see what you mean. I wasn't judging my investment per se, more my decision based on the current market value - which of course changes every single day.
But to your point - stocks can be disconnected to their value for long periods of time, so it's impossible to say something is good or bad just based on how it's performed price wise. I agree with this and talk about it frequently (I think) on this channel.
But eventually...we do all expect our stocks to do well otherwise we wouldn't have bought them. In the short term, price may not matter, but at some point it will matter to us. Do you agree with this?
The main point of this video was to start a timeline that we can go back to. Because the reality for "long-term investing" is that we are met with judgements constantly in the short term about what we're doing. Either from ourselves or from others.
This video is putting that out there for all to see. Look at some of the comments on this video - "you suck at investing", "you should just buy an index", "you're a FOMO investor". These are all people making judgements on what I'm doing - like you said - based on current price only.
The idea is that we'll come back to this, every 6 months and see how it changes. I don't expect MCD or AAPL to be on the "worst decisions" list over the long-term. But this will allow us to watch how it changes over time. I can be like "hey remember when MCD was my worst decisions? Two years later, it's one of my best. Patience." Or maybe even "I underperformed the S&P for 3 years, and now in year 5 we're crushing it because the market finally realized the same VALUE in my companies that I did when I bought them."
To me this is the best way to show what it's actually like to invest. As much as everyone talks about value, the majority of people only focus on price. That's why sometimes to reach them, you need to go where they are. Judge my portfolio on price, and let's keep a running diary of how it changes. My analysis to buy or sell is always based on value / fundamentals, which should take care of the price story over time.
That was the goal of this video. Hopefully that makes sense. Thanks for the comment and telling me your perspective, much respect.
@@mattderronedit- you kind of covered this at 3:45
but it also doesnt take into account for the business cycle, since some companies fall into or out a favor depending on if people think we are early stage or late stage, which continues to flip back and fourth. My 2c.
Just buy S&P500 and do yourself a favor đ
lol Iâve addressed this many times but initially here: Index Funds vs Stocks - What's the Best Approach?
czcams.com/video/gqDaXAzXVAU/video.html
@@mattderron Best of luck Mattđ
@harshamin1908 thank you, weâll see how it goes. Everyone should invest in the way that makes sense for them. In my case it has evolved over time.
@@mattderron well said!
You wonât beat the s&p because what you do is day trading. I wouldnât recommend anyone to follow your advice. Your leading your followers to bad decisions
I thought you said you unsubbing? So nice of you to stay around just to post negative comments on my totally free and transparent content.
Also, I tell âmy followersâ that investing in a simple broad market index and increasing their income and contributions over time is the best approach for most people, and itâs exactly the way I started that positively changed my life.
But hey, you keep on being mad there buddy. Thanks for sticking around!
@@mattderron Hey Matt. He wasnât mad. Itâs you who is sounding mad that he called you out on your âinvestingâ technique and the risk it poses to people who end up following it. Everyone is free to pass judgement on your methods. If you are gonna call that âbeing madâ, maybe you shouldnât be posting content or donât read your comments
have you watched any of my videos before? Anyone saying that what Iâm doing is âdangerous to my followersâ hasnât paid attention to how I present topics and both sides of every situation.
This particular person has posted his âyouâre not an investor. Youâre a day traderâ comment on multiple videos. So yeah, he seems mad. If it was really about helping people there is a simple solution - create the content he wants to see on his own channel. That is the beauty of CZcams. We donât have to stick around channels and communities that we donât agree with.
But hey, youâre entitled to your own opinion. I appreciate your engagement!
â@mattderron definitely keep posting content and please keep reading the comments. I appreciate this content. Thank youđź
Thank you, no worries Iâm not planning to go anywhere!
Loading up SCHD.
Compare to DGRW (if youâre growth oriented investor).
Compare to TDV (if you have an aggressive portfolio)