BOSNIA | Could It Really Return to Conflict?
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- čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
- Over the course of October and November 2021, there has been renewed talk about the possibility of state collapse and even conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But while such talk has become familiar in recent years, there’s a sense that this is the most serious threat to peace and stability in the country since the end of the brutal war, in 1995. Indeed, there's now a real feeling that the country is in a deep and sustained political crisis. The leading international official in Bosnia has even called the current situation an “existential threat” to Bosnia. So, what had led to this latest crisis? And just how dangerous is it?
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The conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which ran from 1992 until 1995, was the most bitter and bloody since the end of the Second World War. However, following a peace deal brokered between Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia, the country looked to be on course to rebuild. Although the country was left with two highly autonomous entities - the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, formed between the Bosnian Muslims (now generally known as Bosniaks) and the Bosnian Croats, and Republika Srpska, dominated by the Bosnian Serbs - In the first decade after the conflict, significant steps were made towards reintegration. However, over the past fifteen years the situation has steadily deteriorated. As well as deadlock in the central government, there has been increasing talk of secession by the Bosnian Serb leaders, Milorad Dodik. This has come to a head in late 2021 as Dodik has threatened to pull out of join state institutions and repatriate powers and bodies, including the possibility of re-establishing a Bosnian Serb army. All this has led to worries that Bosnia may be on the verge of collapse and even conflict. But just how likely is this?
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:30 Post-War Peace and Instability in Bosnia
1:28 Geography and Demographics of Bosnia and Herzegovina
2:20 Bosnia: Conflict and Collapse in the 1990s
4:10 Bosnia-Herzegovina: Post-War Rise and Fall
5:19 The Origins of the Latest Crisis in Bosnia
6:51 What Will Happen Next in Bosnia?
8:49 Could There be a New War in Bosnia?
13:34 Conflict and Collapse in Bosnia-Herzegovina
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FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
Office of the High Representative www.ohr.int/en/
Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina www.predsjednistvobih.ba/gov/A...
Dayton Peace Conference • Secretary of State War...
Bosnia's Paralysed Peace amzn.to/3FrnI0r
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KEYWORDS
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So, just how dangerous is the current situation? Was it avoidable? And how can Bosnia be stabilised in the longer term? I'd be particularly keen to hear views from the region. But let's pleasetry to keep it civil and the discussion intelligent. There are plenty of other places for the usual flamewars!
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Three concepts in the BIH are in conflict:
1. Bosniak: would like BIH to be state with the principle "one man one vote", where they would rule since they have absolute majority, in other words destruction of Dayton
2. Serbian: would like to preserve Republika Srpska and preserve Dayton setup
3. Croats: would like to preserve Dayton setup, but Dayton is breached by Bosniak manipulations (Željko Komšić case three times). Bosniaks interpret that "Croat" who is "Croatian member" of the BIH Presidency, is every man who says he is a Croat and is elected with the votes of Bosniaks (Annex IV of the Dayton).
If everyone would respect Dayton there will be no war on the Croat and Serbian side, but since Bosniaks are opposing this the war could happen. But only under condition if Bosniaks would have some force outside BIH on their side.
@@croatianhistoryandidentity8261 Serbs and Croats should work together to preserve Democracy and the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia. Bosniak politics are getting too dangerous for the people!
@@kubelwagen831 Bosniaks should work to preserve Dayton, that is the point. It is in their interest since the war is not likely instrument to bring them any benefit. I don's se the Serb interest to separate from BIH and unite with Serbia since that solution is unstable, just take a look at geography.
@@croatianhistoryandidentity8261 That would indeed be a tough ask geographically. I am afraid that the Bosniaks are still not willing to accept the Dayton agreement and will continue to impose their domination in Bosnian politics. The Dayton agreement which gives equal rights to Serbs and Croats in the country is unacceptable in the eyes of the Bosniaks. Sadly a country where Bosniaks dominate the politics is a country unfriendly to Serbs and Croats who make nearly 50% of the population.
This video somewhat misses the point by focusing on Dodik and his blank talks of secession. By threatening, he is trying to preserve the Dayton and the People's future. A Bosnia without Dayton is an Apartheid regime against Serbs and Croats.
@@kubelwagen831 I agree. But also, according to Dayton Croats are constitutive people even in Republika Srpska where they currently have no political rights. If Serbs have dominance in Republika Srpska with defined territory and political representatives election, why would they be afraid of Croats? If you are strong, your morality is defined in a way how you treat the rights of the weaker. In Croatia we gave Serbs, Italians ect. guarantied number of representatives in parliament, which we are not obliged to do so.
Honestly, it's a miracle that the current settlement has lasted for 25 years.
The original Dayton worked but when they started picking it apart we get this what we have today.
@Baby Hunn they already have, they are called Croatia and Serbia
@Baby Hunn I'm a muslim from bosnia and im not extremist, i'm as european as any other european, but i can become if need arises and it better doesnt. Serbs dont have to be afraid from bosniaks, they should be afraid of their own dumb politicians first.
Settlements by major powers over subjugated peoples can last a long time. Decades. But all it does is create a powder keg that can be lit and go off at any time.
@@LARESCIV I don't agree with Baby Hunn. But you being European does not make you immune from Islamic fundamentalism. Only your values do.
I live in BiH and all this talks about possible war and conflict is simply impossible. Not beacose people that are forced to live together love eachother.
-There isn't any money to fund any war. People are poor and without will to fight anybody
- If there wolud be somekind od skirmishes, it would only give people just one more reason to leave this so called "state" sooner and more often then now
Thank you. Sadly, but fortunately, I think that you are probably spot on! The situation really is depressing on so many levels.
Yes and every young people are leaving to study in Germany or somewhere else
I live in the west and every time I visit BiH it is noticeably worse of. Only reasons for my visit are family and friends that still live there. If that wasn't the case there would be no will or reason for me to ever go back. It already is a failed state full of broken promises, corruption with no valid prospects. Anyone that says otherwise is just pissing into the wind.
We also have to view in sociological point of view. The nationalism was first triggered by intellectuals, university professors, writers and thinkers. Then carried by paramilitaries from gangs that had no scruples to mankind, no moral and no values. They had no sense of guilt. If we review the old war footage videos, we see lots of kids, with rifles like they were playing a computer game. The moral and consciousness of kids was very fragile, like many who we met in real life.
Even in a peaceful western countries we encounter young men, even studying in college or university, preaching extreme views and venerating atrocities. We also can find this in music arts, lyrics about the architectural of atrocities. Just with a few simple search and we find many of them, some even received laureates and accolades in big events.
@@incelitude I was one of those kids. I was 13 years old when I have learned to assemble and dissemble weapons such as ak74 and machine guns..and I have learned how to shot. And also I was deeply invested in hatred first against Serbs then against Muslims. But those were other times when there was a lot of money and weaponry to wage war. Nowdays there is significant mistrust and even hatred in BiH between nations, but there isn't any material backup for some longer fighting. Sadly , if this country ever again becomes anything that can be called prosperous, there is seed for conflicts
Polish-Belarussian and Greco-Turkish relations are also at an all time low right now (at least for post 2000 times). Europe as a whole is really on the brink
Thanks. You’re absolutely right. It is not looking good at all. I’m actually planning to cover Belarus next week. It is a worrying situation, on all sorts of levels.
The entire world is facing a lot of problems.
As a Turkish citizen, I don't see a serious problem between Turkey and Greece, ordinary bickering.
Because of the US politics. Leave Europe for 10 years without US influence and you will see peace and prosperitty
@@Yusuf_AGAC Erdogan would fall the turks would hit Greece. You dont want to know what will happen check saint paisios prophesies for constadinopole .That man could tell you your name your thoughts your pass and future with out ever seen you before. All he said come true only one is to come the war between russia and turkey ...
Seems there's a lot of items on the table at the moment:
-Irish reunification potentially in a few years time
-Scottish independence may be possible
-Bosnia potentially collapsing
-Belarus/Poland issue
-Belarus and Russia potential reunification?
-Russian reinforcement for the entity of Novarossiya
-Turkey "unofficially " leaving the West
-Turkish/Greek competition in the Aegean
-Turkish/Iranian/Israeli competition in the Caucasus
-Egypt/Ethiopian competition for the Nile
-Ethiopian de-facto almost civil war
-Sudanese coup
-Multiple French interventions in the Sahel
-The obvious problems in the new Afghan state
-China seeming to choose Pakistan for the Jammu & Kashmir question
-Burmese coup
-American disruption of the NATO alliance with AUKUS
-American disunity at home higher than ever...where Virginia's recent electoral flip indicates what may be an even further gridlocked goverment in 2022
-Leading me to the most important question...China and Taiwan
I feel all of the evidence of the above points to what i feel is an indication that we have arrived at a multi-polar world maybe? All of these various regions are committing to their own actions without the worry of former American hegemonic involvement.
Let us not forget the tensions between France/EU and UK, Crimea and Kosovo problems remaining unresolved, possible (and very likely) unification of Moldova and Romania, as well as Polish and Hungarian drift away from the west, and others!
@@ukilectric Great points! Poland seems to have created a another pole (pardon the pun) in Europe. I mean that there are so many issues concurrently...and just on the European continent itself, is indicative of how more complex the world is compared to 1991, and even honestly compared to 2019 (to throw in the pandemic negative effects on everyone). Honestly, i feel there's other folks who could repsond with probably a hundred more items to showcase in every region how much (to my opinion) that we are currently seeing a "new world order" form before our eyes. Of course, thanks to James, Shirvan from Caspian Report, and Good Times/Bad Times providing us the basis and resources to persoanlly research so much and to learn more about how things are panning out.
Thank you so much Kirk. That is quite a list there. I was thinking how many I've covered and which ones I must get round to looking at. (By the way, the plan at the moment is to look at Belarus-Poland next week. This is an important and interesting story in several ways. I've also had France and the Sahel on my radar for a while.) But I completely agree with your broader assessment. A quick look through this really does show the uncertainty of the world we are now in. The US simply doesn't feature as the key actor in the way that it once did.
And some great additions there too. Moldova-Romania unification is one that I have long wanted to look at as well. But the Poland-Hungary one would be fascinating.
Don't forget the encroaching influence of China abroad. Many African and European contries are looking toward Beijing for economic projects and are willing to sabotage/obstruct/veto from within any western policies that China doesn't like. Greece with the port of Patras and Chinese assistance in the Turkish economic crisis are prime examples. When did you last hear Erdogan protest the treatment of Uyghurs, who are both fellow muslims and fellow Turks?
Bosnia Herzegovina is basically a mini Yugoslavia
It's a bad forced marriage with all sides having despise for each other.
With exception to Slovenia & Macedonia, you mean?
Hopefully, this mini Yugoslavia doesn't end up like the big one.
Always has been.
If Yugoslavia was destined to break than why should Bosnia be single nation?
because everything needs to be under NATO control, so that means everyone has rights except Serbs.
Because the croats & bosniaks are killed in the area of republic of srpska. how can the world allow assassination & land grabbing?
@@MrAnel1994 it allows killing of Serbs by Bosniaks and Croats. And it is not the world just NATO...
@@MrAnel1994 Ask any Croat, they would choose Croatia over Bosnia in a heart beat. I don't know how I who was born as a Serb in bosnia could landgrab Bosnian soil. Very strange to me.
@@abc-eq9so Because Bill f****d Monika. And Hillary wanted to cover that.
Where was the "concern" when albanians were making second state from Serbia?
Hello from Dallas, Texas, USA! You've got a few new subscribers from me and two coworkers who were wondering what I was listening to last week. Keep up the fantastic content.
Fantastic! Thank you so much. That’s really great to hear. And warmest greetings to you all in Dallas! I actually have family there and managed to make it over a few years back. Ironically, given my interests, I was in the state for Texas Independence Day and even caught the parade in Austin. Lots of wonderful memories of my stay. Have a great weekend!
*When the worldwide media talks about Bosnia, you know, real shit is about to happen*
There is a real sense here where these kinds of confederations fail more often than they succeed. There isn't a clean solution to that, really. Bosnia without the Serbs and Croats in its current borders would be a very weak, perhaps unsustainable governing entity. Yet, at the same time, the current situation has too many veto points to really work well and is inherently unstable. Unless and until these groups can work together and see themselves as a singular people, the issues are going to return periodically. But I'm not sure there is a way to force or even really foster that (see Iraq, South Sudan, Cyprus, etc)
I'm not sure I entirely agree, I think it's a failed marriage and both sides would benefit from a divorce.
No one really cares about Bosnia at this point, politicians from all sides abuse tensions and nationalistic sentiments to make threats and get re-elected.
The people can't see themselves as a single people, that's why Yugoslavia is gone.
@@logikus8638 Just look at sports when Bosnia plays soccer only the bosniaks support that team while Serbs in BiH always and only support Serbia same goes for the Croatians in western Herzegovina and other places in the country they support Croatia.
@@ukilectric if that were the situation then the 90s carveup of Bosnia between Croatia and Serbia would have worked peacefully. The fact of the matter is that the Bosniaks are really the group the state exists for, if not for them it would be split between its neighbors, but they are not a large enough populace to dominate the country under its traditional borders. That’s a big part in leading to the Serbs and to a lesser extent the Croats trying to ethnically cleanse the territory, and thus protection of the Bosniaks is the main reason why a new Bosnia was created and will always have support from America and its allies, to the contrary the partition of Bosnia is viewed extremely negatively by these same forces.
@@TheLocalLt I don't think Bosnia should je partitioned between its larger neighbours at all, but the situation as it is now provides no safety to Bosniaks OR anyone in the region, if it's safety your looking for then either RS needs to be let go or Bosnia has to go through a lot of reforms that no sides has political will for.
I’m a US vet that deployed to Bosnia is support of NATO Operations. This breaks my heart. Peace in Bosnia.
Thank you for supporting my country brother. Deep respect for any veteran!
You're a pawn, you had no business there
Only peace if you land in Bosnia and stop Serbs with us like brothers in arms!
Thanks for serving brother. I’m a dual citizen so I owe you two beers man.
@@colddarkness1798 stop Serbs from living in their homeland?
If you go to the bottom of a see and see two fishes fight, take a close look around and you will see an Englishman.
Ghandy
Why shouldn't the Serbs have a right to self determination? Same for Croats. Even if 50% of Bosnian territory wants to secede it would be undemocratic not to allow it.
The essence of Broz's communist policy, which was reluctantly embraced by the United States and Britania, is that "all countries are indivisible, except Yugoslavia and Serbia. All the peoples of the Balkans have the right to self-determination, except the Serbs, they only have the right to disappear".
Self determination doesn't necessarily mean independence, it can also mean enormous autonomy which is probably what dodik is pushing for.
And no, regions can't just declare themselves to be apart from their country because that would be chaotic.
@@doktornauka1 There isn't some western conspiracy against Serbia, politics are all about pragmatism and Serbia is currently more aligned towards Russia than the West, making Serbia seem hostile in the eyes of anti-Russian countries.
@@ukilectric There is. The West was hostile towards the Serbs even in the early 2000s, when there was no cooperation between Serbia and Russia and when the Serbs went towards the West completely. In such circumstances, America embarked on a unilateral secession of Kosovo and a violation of the Dayton rights of the Republika Srpska.
@@ukilectric and you are the one to judge whats chaotic and what not?
I can't believe that in the 21st century we still concider armed conflict, in Europe!
Greetings from Bosnia & Herzegovina!
Thank you Saša. Yes, it is terrible to think that we are still having to have these debates. I hope that things will ease up over there. Pozdrav iz Londona!
@@JamesKerLindsay Where was the "concern" when albanians were making second state from Serbia-(Kosovo)?
LET'S ALL JUST LIVE IN PEACE BROTHERS. We all speak the same language,we are highly diverse people, part Slavs part native Balkan people.
Let's show the world that we are a land of conquerors,explorers, pioneers and inventors. This could only be done by the greatest people on earth🇧🇦🇭🇷🇲🇰🇷🇸🇸🇮🇲🇪
It's indeed very sad that more people don't hold this view.
get your fact correct all slavs not diverse .
It is not the same language
PART 1, IDENTITIES of mutually intelligible languages: Croatian, Serbian, Bosnian and Montenegrin, czcams.com/video/O09HQ9hZPKE/video.html
PART 2, IDENTITIES of mutually intelligible languages - Croatian, Serbian, BS, ME, PART 2: historical survey, czcams.com/video/_rhPZryNp-M/video.html
@@frankrenda2519 Slavs are a lingual group, not an ethnic one.
We all are the same but cant people cant accept it. We are YUGOSLAVIJA
I was waiting for your take on the current situation in Bosnia. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us!
Thanks. I hope that it provided some useful analysis.
Another very informative video. The Dayton Peace Deal probably can't last forever though so even if Bosnia avoids chaos now do you think it is inevitable there will be problems in the future? How long can it be sustainable to have an international High Representative there?
On a separate topic do you have any thoughts on the renewed tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the past weeks?
If someone can not live together, should they wait another 25 years to figure out it is waste of time?
Bosnian Serb army is in accordance with Dayton agreement.
Why would there be anything wrong with a unilateral decleration of independence - Bosnia was also created by unilateral secession from Yugoslavia.
If the seccesion of part of the territory is unexceptable, then why support it regard to Kosovo?
Double standards, hypocrisy and bias.
Thanks. There are several points here.
First, it is not about where they really want to live together. They have signed an agreement and the international community wants to see it work. Not just the West, but everyone. Almost every country is made up if different peoples. And countries really don’t like secession. Everyone actually has on interest in seeing Bosnia stay together.
Second, the RS army was merged with the Bosnian Army. This was accepted by all concerned. Unilaterally changing it back is clearly intended to be a destabilising move.bit is not a case of merely reclaiming a power. It goes far beyond that and we all know it.
Third, Bosnian independence and RS independence are not the same thing. I have discussed this in other comments. And given Emma extremely long and detailed explanation of why they are different on the eyes of international law.
Fourth, I absolutely accept that Kosovo confuses matters. It’s independence goes against the arguments I outlined in my comments on point 2. But that is why it isn’t a member of the UN and why it is not recognised by half the members of the UN. See point 1.) Any discussion of RS needs to be framed about practices in every other case, not the strange anomaly of Kosovo, which hasn’t been universally accepted. If you are interested, I have written on Kosovo www.knjizara.com/Kosovo-put-ka-osporenoj-drzavnosti-na-Balkanu-Dzejms-Ker-Lindzi-133354
Well, doesn't a fucking genocide kinda complicate things don't you think?
@Erik K.
The double standard is your comment. RS was built on mass graves. Plus Dodik rates non-serbs in his entity as second rate citizens, literally a fascist who continues the politics that caused war in the first place 30 years ago. If you don't know what you are talking about, then just stop talking overall
It always fascinates me how Germanic intelectuals see situation . Informative but sterile . No real data from the ground . Well , my first memories are from Bosnia , and yes , used to have family there . Main problems of people who actually live there are in systematic corruption , political and other violence backed by local mafia . Local mafia is armed wing of local political nationalistic party . That local party decides who will work and who will starve . So , many opt to emigrate and end up as cheap labor in Western Europe . For the end , current Bosnia is result of Shot Gun Marriage which in this case is Manage a Ménage à trois forced by USA in Army Base in Dayton Ohio . 3 presidents , Tuđman , Miloševoić and Izetbegović were locked there for more then a month in 1996 . What usually happens when people are forced into sexual intercourse against their own will ? Well , then they tend to flee . And , when sex slaves flee , then masters , in this case NATO is chasing them . In short , Bosnia is failed state . It is shit hole . And if born there as neuro normal and not as a psychopath , you need to flee , regardless what Germanic nation builder wants , your safety is your mayor responsability .
The fact we haven't got rid of landmines in Bosnia is a microcosm of how we abandoned bosnia. How can a nation heal from war when you have 180,000 landmines.
Im a Serb from Republika Srpska and i dont think Bosnia is near a break up. Dodik is for first time in many years threatend by oposition, his popularity is dropping. In last local elections he lost Banja Luka, capital of RS. His counterpart is Draško Stanivuković a young politician who is more liberal and constantly fights corruption, exposes Dodik's corruption etc. He became quite popular among the people.
Now Dodik plays old nationalist card to regain popularity, belive me threatening with seccesion happens quite often when some politician loses popularity, not just Dodik. He isnt gonna do anything about seccesion he is just lying. Also threatening with seccesion happens whenever Bosniaks threaten with abolishing RS and making Bosnia a centralised state (state that they would lead ofc). When Serbs threat with seccesion they threat with centralisation and vice versa. Circle of empty threats just goes on and people are being scared and manipulated by politicians. One more proof that Dodik is an opportunist and liar is that he wasnt always big nationalist like now, quite the contrary he is the first Serb politician that said Srebrenica was genocide and that called Mladić and Karadžić war criminals. Now he denies all that hahahah. He changes agenda based on his needs.
When it comes to returnig RS military and other things you mentioned, that would be also hard to do, but im not completely against it since after all those were the rights RS had according to Dayton agreement and they were taken away by OHR later. I dont think we need a separate army but if it can be done peacefully with agreement than ok. If it cant than no.
czcams.com/video/TboVIVIpRK8/video.html
Thank you so much Branko! I really appreciate it. And I agree with everything you say. I’ve had a lot of people here calling me anti-Serbian. I’m not. Like many in RS and Serbia, I am very worried by Dodik’s tactics. I also think that Dodik is playing the nationalist card. And those who cheer on his tactics seem to come from the nationalist wing of Serbian politics. (I know Serbia very well indeed and have been to RS many times.) And I agree that a lot of this is also being driven by Bosniak nationalists and their calls for RS to be abolished. This is completely destabilising as well. As I’ve said elsewhere, for Bosnia to really begin to succeed it requires Serbs to truly accept the Bosnian State and for Bosniaks to truly accept the Republika Srpska entity. In any case, thanks again for the comment. Always great to get a view from on the ground!
Hvala roki nisam znao da boga da nikad nebi bio opet rat mi smo i sada na dno dna evrope jos jedan rat i moremo se slikati za 100 godina zivimo u sirotinu .
Republika Srpska ain't a real country, deal with it.
@@wateo1782 yeah its a federal entity thank you captian obvious
If the Serbs of Bosnia Herzegovina want to secede and join Serbia, on what basis should this be prevented? Why should Bosnia as a state be preserved whereas it was acceptable for Yugoslavia to be dissolved?
Thanks. Great questions. And ones that I often think are actually very hard to answer, if we are to be completely truthful. I think the answer is really about stability more than anything. There is a real worry that if you pull at one string in the Balkans, then others start to unravel - and in ways that might not be manageable. I personally think that Bosnia is worth trying to preserve. But the reality of the Dayton balance needs to be respected. If calls for RS to secede are unacceptable, then calls for it to be abolished are also destabilising. I often think that if the Bosniaks and Bosnian Serbs could really and truly accept the idea of a sovereign Bosnia-Herzegivina with Republika Srpska as a highly-autonomous, constitutional and unquestionable element of the Bosnian state, then they might start to work out ways to make the functioning of the state and its various elements more effective.
@@JamesKerLindsay James, i think what you are doing is not honest. This whole conflict is about West and Russia. On the other hand, you are contradicting yourself...you say keep stability...by maintaining an unstable situation. Why the international community not just support this secession and the problems will go away?
@@JamesKerLindsay the way I see it, the first string was pulled when Yugoslavia was broken up.
One reason is because allowing Republica Srpska to secede and join Serbia would legitimize doing genocide as a way to gain territory. Keep in mind that before the war the ethnic composition in the territories of Republica Srpskawas was way different than what the map shows now. Google bosniaks before and after
@@JamesKerLindsay One reason is because allowing Republica Srpska to secede and join Serbia would legitimize doing genocide as a way to gain territory. Keep in mind that before the war the ethnic composition in the territories of Republica Srpskawas was way different than what the map shows now. Google bosniaks before and after
First of all, I'd like to thank you Prof. Ker- Lindsay. I really appreciate your engagement in taking the time for educating the public about such complex political issues in such an (nearly) objective manner. I see you tried your best not to take any side, just to inform.
As a Serb from Republika Srpska (RS) I have heavily mixed and ambivalent feelings about the crisis.
In the following I'll try to be as objective as possible, although it is unlikely to fully succeed, as I am also merely a Homo sapiens.
On the one hand I feel that the last thing the citizens of RS and Bosnia as a whole need is another violent or even non- violent conflict, as it would damage the country not only politically and socially, but also economically. The horrible economic situation would get even worse, potentially resulting in an even faster rate of population decline in the years to come. Is such an unstable country interesting for international investments and companies? Definitely not. And RS and the Republic of Serbia surely do not need an additional economic burden via sanctions.
On the other hand I can understand those Serbs in Bosnia, who feel more need for self determination. One has to keep in mind, that a whole damn bloody war was fought for the creation of RS and allowing for some kind of self- government of Serbs in Bosnia, without being influenced by majority-muslim-dominated votes and a muslim dominated policy. (Because of this kind of influence nowadays many Bosnian Croats are not really satisfied). But I admit that through the genocide in Srebrenica, the massacres in Prijedor and the assault on Sarajevo, Serbian politicians brought huge shame on Serbs, destroyed their global reputation, and poisoned the social climate for decades, if not centuries.
Furthermore I saw and see, that some - possibly even many - Bosniak politicians aim for the long-term destruction and dismantling of RS since it came to life, although it is much more hidden and subtle then Dodik's actions. The influence of conservative Islam in the Federation of BiH is growing slowly but steadily, every year, every decade a little bit more. With multi- million dollar investments from Saudi- Arabia and Turkey more and more land is bought in the Federation, arabic shopping malls and mosques are mushrooming, and the moderate Bosniak version of Islam from pre- 1980 shifts very slowly but gradually towards an more literal arabic understanding of the Qur'an, with all it's dark pages and sure's. Nowadays much more headscarf's are seen in Sarajevo than in the days of Jugoslavia, even Burqa's and Niqab's. Every human with eyes and memory could confirm that. A growing number of Tourists from Arab countries are coming to Bosnia, some additionally buying land and bringing their view of Islam to the Balkans. I do neither hate Islam nor muslims (I know very kind, tolerant and progressive muslims personally) and I do NOT want to spread hatred, but nonetheless I see certain problems with many sure's of the Qur'an, which really complicate the coexistence of a majority of Muslims and a minority of non- Muslims in the same country. This development leaves many Bosnian Serbs with a very uncomfortable, concerned and anxious feeling, creating further repulsion of a shared country. They argue, that the only way to escape long- term dictate of muslim- majority votes is to acquire more rights and pursue true self- government.They feel like it is imposed on them by the west to live in the same country with 51% increasingly conservative Muslims. Some opinions are "Yes, some Serbs really do want to live in a county that is governed by Serbs, as absurd as it sounds" (and also in a non- corrupt one). Therefore some dream of something like the "United Serbian States" - insfead of the "Republic of Serbia" - in the long term, as far I can understand the whole situation.
From my serbian, more or less biased perspective I really don't know a good solution for us Serbs. No matter how our politicians decide, the outcome might be very unsatisfying and even devastating for us in any case. If we pursue the path to true self- government we might be destroyed economically and many of us could loose their life's in violent conflicts, if we stay we will always remain unsatisfied in a country that was imposed on us, with a demographic composition and an atmosphere in which some of us feel uncomfortable.
Somehow I can't get rid of the strange feeling that Bosnia can only function if it belongs to Bosniaks only, a country for themselves. In the back of my mind and out of desperation a tiny voice is suggesting something weird as an exchange of territory, a compromise, a pieceful resettlement of people. Serbs give up 20 to 30 % of their territory in north- western Bosnia, including Banja Luka, but receive 10 % of areas in Federation's Eastern Bosnia. After all, we are only 30 % of the population! This would be a compromise in which everybody could gain something. But possibly this is a mad idea, which no side will accept, as everybody aims at "more".
In the long term (next decades) humility is and will be our ONLY salvation, brothers and sisters,- not only for us in Bosnia, bur for manking in general. Not God/ Allah, not Jesus, not the West, not Turkey nor Russia nor anybody can save us in the years and decades to come. The only salvation lies within us, if we let our humility grow! Everybody has to let go of something, to gain something new, something more strable and sustainable. Otherwise we possibly will remain in this unproductive and dangerous situation for a very, very long time.
Whatever happens, I hope that no bloodshed will occur, that we Serbs stop being stupid and start to acknowledge the usage of the term "genocide" for what happened in Srebrenica, and that we'll find a way to compromise or to coexist.
I wish us all the best.
e moj božure da smo svi vaki gdjeb nam bio kraj
Nice little prequel which was used to justify the genocide, ethnic cleansing, mass murder and mass rape of Bosniaks in what is today Republika Srpska. Its completely soaked in the blood of the people you seek to antagonize. What a primitive argument that Serbs can only live with Serbs and nobody else in a time of great globalization. Its for these two points that Republika Srpska must be abolished from a civilizational standpoint as it represents the darkest and most regressive parts of humanity.
@@Sardiatae No, I did not argue that Serbs have a problem living together with other nationalities in one country. They do e.g. in Northern Serbia (Vojvodina) with Hungarians, Slovaks, Croats, Russians, etc. without any difficulties.
I just said that many Serbs nowadays (as well as in the 90's) feel very uncomfortable living in a muslim- MAJORITY country that is getting increasingly conservative due to heavy influence and investments from Arabic countries. Serbs were persecuted, oppressed, impaled, expelled, robbed of their children for about 500 (!) years by Ottoman Turks. That has not lead to the very best impression of Islam. Furthermore those Non-Muslims who invested significant time to study the Qur'an, know that 'infidels' in the Qur'an are seen like filthy sub-humans, that should be exterminated. Islam teaches beautiful values, compassion, love and mercy ... but sadly only towards other muslims. That was e.g. also reflected in the Islamic declaration by Alija Izetbegović, that you are surely familiar with. So that doesn't help either in creating a good impression of Islam.
But nonetheless, I do not try to justify ANY sort of violence against Bosniaks or other Muslims, especially not the genocide in Srebrenica (which I, as you see, acknowledge as such). Nothing in the world could justify that, and I am very ashamed and sad of what Serb politicians and soldiers did. It is one thing to conquer a piece of land and fight for your people, but it is a whole nother level to attack and slaughter innocent civilians. I am terribly sorry for that in a way, that I cannot even put into words! My apology doesn't change anything, and probably doesn't mean anything to you and any of the victims, but I still have to write it here. There could have been another way, a more civilized and human one ...
Another point, that you do not seem to be aware of. Most, nearly all modern borders in Europe and elsewhere were the result of extreme violence, evictions, ethnic cleansings and other human rights abuses. E.g. look at the modern eastern borders of Turkey. It is the result of one of the most terrible genocides in the 20. century, during which approx. 1.5 Mio. Armenians were slaughtered. Similar situation in West Europe, where countless terrible wars were fought over every little piece of land. But the difference to RS (and also Kosovo btw.) is, that those other events lie so far in the past, that these wounds are not fresh anymore. So RS is not a strange anomaly in that regard! Again, by pointing that out, I do NOT aim to justify the attrocities of the 90's committed by Serbs!!
Last thought: I have noticed, that the louder Bosniaks call for abolishing RS and taking away it's rights given by Dayton, the more RS wants to split of Bosnia. Could that teach us anything?
asking serbs to give up banja luka is literally asking for genocide. you're talking about displacing hundreds of thousands of people.
@@beer_4781 Добар дан, друже.
I shared the following thoughts with a Bosniak somewhere here in the sea of comments. He also asked me how such a crazy undertaking could be accomplished peacefully without genocide, because Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats would have to move. This was my answer, which I will copy now. Again, don't worry, it is very unlikely to happen:
" I understand your doubts and worries very well. Yes, splitting would be a complicated procedure, that should only be carried out after extensive preparation and detailed planning. But in case it really happens, it would need much negotiation to find a smart compromise.The protection of minorities in every of the three countries would have to be guaranteed by special law and reinforced and controlled by the state with highest priority (after a hypothetical split). Nobody living in the others ethnicities country should be endangered or pressured/forced to leave. Everybody who wants to stay should have the option for staying, without any negative consequences. But for those who want to leave and resettle in their own region, there should be exchange programmes for swapping houses and land, organised by the government via internet, and maybe active for the first 30 years after the split. Additionally a decent financial aid for moving and buying new property should be given during those first 30 years. By these measures the ethnic composition of all countries could change slowly but steadily, peacefully, without any force or violence. Chaotic and panic moving away or fleeing would be prevented.
If RS really secedes in the following years or even decades, I hope that a fair exchange of land will take place, where the Bosniaks get a bit more land, maybe 10 to 15 % more than the Serbs (that might be a motivation for a deal for Bosniaks, who are mostly vehemently against secession), and I say that as a Serb myself. Bosniaks should get parts of north western and central RS (large parts of Banja Luka region), while RS could get some additional parts of eastern Bosnia next to Serbia, therefore preventing weird disconnected shapes (but not Sarajevo!). Croats should have only the right to get land in western Bosnia on the border ro croatia, maybe max. 10 to 15 % of current Bosnia. With that solution everybody might be satisfied (or maybe not!?). I hope that RS politicians are intelligent enough to see that compromise can lead to profit for everyone. If not compromise in splitting, then at least compromise in building up Bosnia together with the Federation for a better economy and future, but without endangering the existence of RS."
Its funny how USA and EU say that international borders must be respected while they also recognize the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.
If they support Bosnia with its recognized borders, then they must support Serbia as well, since Serbia is internationally recognized with Kosovo, not without.
So, what will it be?More hypocrisy or finally some honesty?
I’m really not the one to complain to about this. I raised these concerns www.knjizara.com/Kosovo-put-ka-osporenoj-drzavnosti-na-Balkanu-Dzejms-Ker-Lindzi-133354 But I also believe that Serbia and Kosovo have got to reach an agreement.
In both cases Serbia or the forces fighting for their interests committed massive crimes against humanity, even I, a Bosnian, understand your opinion on Kosovo. But Bosnia is a whole other matter, The RS was ethnically cleansed and the people who used to live there or their parents that used to live there will never allow anything of that sort to happen. For their homes to become part of Serbia. It would unleash another bloody war for nothing.
@@emp96ElminD The Federation is cleansed of Serbs as well.Before the war around 160.000 Serbs used to live in Sarajevo.
How many of them remain in Sarajevo today?2.000-3.000.
Where are Serbs from Tuzla, Zenica, Mostar and Bihac?In RS and Serbia.
Creating ethnically clean territories for all constituent peoples was the goal of the entire war.
@Milos Tomic Are you mental or what? 160000 Serbs in Sarajevo, where are you pulling these numbers out? Where are they? In Easter Sarajevo, they used to be counted, of course the new numbers don't include those that live in Eastern Sarajevo.
@@emp96ElminD Before the war around 160.000 Serbs lived in Sarajevo.They don't live there anymore.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sarajevo
So much information left out. For a start, the new European 'Viceroy' was imposed on the country by EU itself , without any agreement from 3 entities, nor was decision subjected to UN approval. I guess after the previous Viceroy and his totally one-sided decisions, it was unlikely that Republika Srpska would have approved of this particular replacement candidate. Dayton agreement basically created a country using the example of Belgium, which is highly decentralised. Belgium had no trouble becoming part of EU as is, while Bosnia and Hercegovina had to be 'reformed' into a centrally run country, else if was not acceptable as a EU candidate. EU membership 'criteria' was seen as a way of removing rights Republika Srpska was given via Dayton agreement.
It is often stated that Republika Srpska is trying to change the Dayton agreement when in reality its the other way around, Republika Srpska is trying to preserve what was in Dayton agreement and now has had enough and wants to roll back changes forced upon itself to what the status was as per agreement. Dayton agreement did not stipulate a unified army, it codified a structure with independent defense forces. This is just one example of dozens of changes that were imposed in the last 25 years.
Did you really watch it? I covered many of these points. But on RS I am absolutely clear that Bosniak talk of abolishing it is utterly destabilising. But let’s not pretend that Dodik is making things easier. I know RS and Serbia very well indeed. Many people are worried at the direction he is taking things. I agree. He guarantees that the HR will stay in place. That said, Inzko’s move on the genocide legislation was also utterly counterproductive.
In reality, the SDS (etnic Serbs) deputies, dissatisfied with the decision of the Parliament of Republic of BiH on the referendum of the independence and separation from Yugoslavia, (more then 64% voted for independence), withdrew from the constitutional system of the Republic of BiH in 1992, started a war against the state and in those illigal circumstances, thay created para-entity, with the aim of joining Serbia. In Dayton in 1995, they sealed the factual situation on the ground, produced by the war and de facto undertook the obligation to negotiate with the state in order to build a functional system. Because the DPA is a peace agreement with indicative indications of the future constitutional construction in order to create a functional state. Hence the transfer of some competencies BACK to the state.The most comprehensive attempt at constitutional reform in this regard was in 2006. The strongest nationalist parties (SDA; HDZ; SDS) and even the strongest oposition party od SDP BiH, agreed on these amendments, but, despite of that - these amendments fell in Parliament (the key reason was the attempt to legalise ethnic decision-making in Parliament through these amendments; since then, there has been a radical outrage from Serb nationalists who are doing everything they can to undermine the state of BiH. To that end, strong interaction has been established with Putin's Russia, and everything we are witnessing in Bosnia these days is under direct instructions from Moscow (and BG). ... Good analysis Mr. James. Thanks.
@@JamesKerLindsay lol. Dodik is only talking about secession, TALKING, while OHR and Bosniaks took 148 juridisctions from RS, OHR made illegal Constitutional Court which is in contradiction with Constitution of BiH, and using this institution they are trying to abolish RS by passing laws which in reality are abolishing Dayton Agreement. E.g. RS is owner of 49% of the countries territory and this land cannot be appropiated from the instance of BIH, cause it's only belongs to RS by Constitution. OHR and Bosniaks using Constitional Cort have illegaly made decisions that BiH become owner of agricultural fields in RS and lots of other bad decisions which will lead to countries collapse. I mean, what's next, banning name of Republik of Srpska, forcing different flag, banning our national holidays, etc. There is no other chance for Bosnia to work out except if we go back to original Dayton and get rid off OHR and other foreigners which work in Bosniaks/NATO favour. Or original Dayton and respecting Constitution or breaking up this Frankstein.
Viceroy is good name for these types, the country is ruled like colony by outside powers interested in Bosnia's preservation, I remember The Economist magazine called late Paddy Ashdown - Raj.
@@ishtvanfejehvr698 They are trying to make freaking centralized state in hope that this will save it from collapse, while using veiled and real threats, like in deceased DDR. It is ridiculous, Western Europe is fully decentralized.
If it is acceptable and reasonable for Bosnia to break away from Yugoslavia, I don’t understand any argument that deems the RS position and it’s people’s desire unreasonable. Welcome anyone to explain here, as my understanding is that Bosnia’s independence declaration was not legal according to Yugoslavia’s constitution at the time.
Thank you. There is an explanation for this, but it's a little complicated. It revolves around what we call external and internal self-determination. External self-determination refers to a right of independence. It applies usually only in cases of colonialism. Internal self-determination applies to peoples within states and refers to the right of autonomy within a state, but not independence. This applies is most normal cases.
In essence, and unusually, the 1974 Yugoslav constitution granted a right of independence to the nations - external self-determination. (Very few countries permit secession.) When Yugoslavia began to break apart, the Serbs interpreted that to mean the peoples of the nations. The others decided that it should be applied to the republics as the embodiment of the nations. The matter was refereed to an international law commission which decided on the latter view. This was largely correct as this is standard practice in international law. When territories become independent they keep their previous administrative boundaries, unless otherwise mutually agreed. Moreover, once a country becomes independent, those boundaries are then regarded as sacrosanct.
This is why Bosnia could break away, but the Bosnian Serbs can't.
Now, I know you will probably ask about Kosovo. Kosovo didn't follow these rules (for all sorts of reasons that I won't go into here.) But that is why those who supported its independent had to call it 'a special case'. They knew that it went against these established principles. But this also explains why, after almost a decade and half after declaring independence, Kosovo is still only recognised by half the world and why it isn't in the UN. If Kosovo occurred anywhere else in the world, it would not be compared to the situation in RS. The inability of RS to break away is the norm in international politics, not the exception. It's just that Kosovo makes it look that way to many Serbs.
I hope this helps.
@@JamesKerLindsay It does help. For puppet states of USA and the Vatican self-determination means independence. For others only autonomy.
Constitution was clear. Nations had the right to secede, not republics. The secession from Yugoslavia was only possible with the green light from all of the constituent republics that made up Jugoslavija. What Slovenia and others did was therefore, unconstitutional and an act of war.
The truth is that Serbs from the RSK, RS and SRB made one single nation within Yugoslavia so under the constitution they had all the rights to secede. Even more than those who tried to break away whole republics since Serbs never wanted any piece of land populated by other nations. Only those places where Serbs made the majority of the population.
I'm to tired to even start with Kosovo. I am not telling this to you personally but to the "West" in general. You tricked, betrayed and duble-crossed the Serbs. Just come out and say it. It became too boring with these "it was a special case"... Serbs have a culture that is similar to Russias, Croats and Albanians have German and Turkish culture, both of which were in NATO. That was the only "special case".
Thanks. But I think it’s worth noting that aside from the breakups of a Yugoslavia, USSR and Czechoslovakia, which are classed as examples of state dissolution, successful secessions are actually incredibly rare. There have only been three cases since 1970! Bangladesh, Eritrea and South Sudan. (Easy Timor was a complex case of decolonisation.) Again, the problem is that the situation in the Balkans has given people a rather wrong impression of how secession and independence usually works. And actually the breakup of Yugoslavia (aside from Kosovo) confirmed many of the rules of the international system on the sanctity of substate borders. It’s just that this worked against Serbia and so it tends to be seen as part of an anti-Serb agenda. It isn’t. But again, I also understand how Kosovo has contributed to this view.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for the info and fast reply.
Well secession certianly does not go the way Slovenes and Croats thought it goes.
can scotland become independant? or why is it okay for Britain to hold a part of Ireland
As always a great video James. The views: comments ratio on these Balkan videos is always crazy haha.
Saw you say that you're planning to cover the Poland- Belarus situation which is great!
Ah yes, the Balkans videos. I have mixed feelings about doing them. I know what I am going to get. But, then again, I know what I am going to get! :-) Obviously as the region is my particular area of academic specialisation I come at it slightly differently. I sometimes think that maybe my own views come out more strongly in those videos, which might also explain why they provoke so much stronger reactions. On some others, where I don't have such close attachment, and where one would usually expect to have flamewars, the responses actually seem to be very measured and positive. In any case, I do believe that I am fair and my views are based on an objective look at the situation.
And, yes, this week is indeed Belarus. I am looking at the concept of Hybrid Warfare and asking was it a hybrid attack? As always, I'll be really keen to hear your thoughts.
Hello James,
What do you think about the eu enlargement agenda which includes the countries of western balkans?
Thanks. I absolutely support the expansion into the Western Balkans. But it has got to happen when they are ready. I know that some people say that they should be taken in earlier, to help them become more stable. I disagree. This shows a misunderstanding of how the EU works. Members must be able to meet the terms of membership to make sure that their products are safe, that they don't have unfair advantages, that their courts are fair if investors need it. It is still an economic project as well, and the economic cohesion of the EU needs to function effectively for the political project to remain on track.
Huge James' fan from the "rouge state" of Republic of Srpska here!
Hvala puno. :-) Thanks so much Dejan. I do hope all is well over there.
Laku noć i pozdrav iz Londona.
@@JamesKerLindsay We Serbs (and Bosnians in general) have never had it well even at the best of times, James. :-) BTW, Dodik has backpaddled on the secession claims as he usually does. To us here it looks like he's using this specific geopolitical moment to stop and reverse the already progressed centralisation of the country. The second plausible goal is to force Bosniaks into the deeper economic integration with the Serbia through the so called "Open Balkans" project (which, astonishingly, is supported by the US).
Interesting how in countries of former Yugoslavia everyone is allowed to seceede except Serbs.
Western hipocricy well known all around the world.
The Slovenes got Slovenia, the Croats got Croatia, the Serbs got Serbia… Bosnians just want Bosnia. This is all rather simple. But the machinations of ultra-nationalists cloud the picture and ruin the process for peace-loving, civilized peoples of all nations.
@@WordToMomsYo Yes this is true. RS was never a country that existed in Yugoslavia so how can it be "allowed to secede" if it never existed in the first place?
@@queenofstrongstyle Neither was Kosovo, but it still seceded
@@WordToMomsYo there is no such things as Bonsnians, there are three nations, each having its own political power and self governance, this is just conflict between concept of BIH, Muslims are for centralisation and unity as they make 50% of population (even tough they are loosing it badly due to mass emigration to West in last few years), Serbs are for at least full independent RS inside of BIH and they are getting stronger in last few years as Serbia is getting stronger. Croats are somewhere in between, to keep BIH as single nation if neccessar, but to recognize full political presentation of each nation. Now we have situation where Muslims are trying to get croatian political positions in BIH (they already took croatian presidency) and Croats are getting politically closer to Serbs who are opposing Muslims. So its far more complicated than it seems.
Thanks for the video James! Honestly, I know very little about Bosnia. So thanks for the informative video on it.
Thanks so much! Bosnia is always a tricky one as there are various threads to it. The current situation does look very worrying though. (And wading through the comments has been a reminder of so much that is wrong with the country.) In any case, I'm glad it helped make sense of things over there.
I hope all is well with you. Looking forward to the next video!
This is the second time I've watched content on this topic today. I do appreciate your takes on these issues though, James. A very complicated country if you ask me. New borders may need to be agreed upon, but that's easier said than done
yea cuz caspianreport just posted a video on Bosnia today lol
Stay blessed my fellow Canuck. Caspian Reports was exactly to whome I was referring
Literally the only reason why the Serbs in Bosnia don't reunite with the Republic of Serbia is because of fear of another war.
A country who's existence depends upon the fear and submission of a third of its population shouldn't exist.
A war would be the worst of all possible outcomes, by far. But the status quo is inhumane.
There will no war even if the Serb Republic decleares independence, it would be more like a Transnistria-thing... At least my inner voice tells me...
It goes the same with Croats, I don't know one that would not say yes to secession tomorrow.
This review doesn't have the level of quality as your previous ones. It seems that you didn't touch the most important issues:
- Will of the people. Is the people in Bosnia for or against the centralised state? In your review you represent integration/centralisation of the state as something good and decentralisation/disintegration as something bad. What's the base for such claim?
- Democrasy. 25 years passed since the war and still there is some foreign and not elected high representative administrator with the power to overthrown elected politicians, and writting his own laws. In the same time in the constitutional court there are voting members which are foreign citizens delegated by the west. Does that look like a foreign colony, and what happened with the self-determination, democratic values by their elected representatives?
- Legal background. Foreign high representative isn't supported by UN anymore. What is the legal base for him to have any further role in Bosnia? You didn't adress that.
- Consistency. Albanians on Kosovo have the right to proclaim independency from Serbia, but Serbs in Bosnia don't have that same right. Is that justifiable? Is maybe this inconsistency governed by the west, main source of the tensions on the Balkans?
- Misuse of nations majority. In accordance with the constitution Croats have the right to have their own representative in high state counsel, but muslims (Bosniaks) misuse their majority in the entity to elect Croat which isn't the choice of the Croat people, but is the Bosniak puppet . In this example everyone can see what will happen if every decission is centralised on the level of state. Nevertheless, you only portrait Dodik as the main bad guy, without addressing this issue?
- War rethoric. You didn't adress who mostly use and threatenes with war rhetoric. 2 leaders who supportd decentralised state or disintegration, or leaders from one ethnic group, supported by the west, who wants to implement centralised state by force?
- Logic. If west is opposed to have decentralised state of 3 constitutional nations, regardless that this is the will of 2 nations, and wants to centralise the state by force - who is the main bad guy in this story, and what should be the answer of 2 nations leaders in Bosnia who oppose this idea?
Thank you for addressing this issue. Croatians in BiH are being excluded from electing their representative, which is unfair for Croatians and for Serbians in BiH who now have to deal with a Bosniak majority representing them. Plus, as you mentioned, why do BiH Serbians not have the same rights as what was then, Serbian Albanians (Kosovans). To me, a sensible step would be to give Croatians in BiH their own part of BiH too, with Mostar, Sarajevo, and Brčko District all being split cities.
@@colekinder517 Sooo not true, you have no clue on how it works, and yet you presume things. BiH election law says that one member of Presidency is Croat form FBiH, and he represent BiH not his/hers ethnicity, but rather all of them. Mixing apples and peers usually yields in "interesting" results. :)
@Marlo Kartel My catholic friend, there is no Islamic republic nor its proposed and I'll be the first to oppose it. And yes, BiH as it stands as member of UN will join EU and NATO. Dreams of breaking this country has been wet dream for more than century by Croatia and Serbia, yet its still very much alive, and this hype will blow over like many times before.
@Mmajstor. Very very well said. Especially very objective. Thank god we have the comments so you can put some points into perspective.Thank you very much gentlemen. Regards from Germany
Interesting topic, thank you James.
Thanks you so much. Always appreciated! I hope you are well.
Recently found your channel, really enjoy the content !
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. And a very warm welcome to the channel! :-)
7:36 Dodik would like for the Dayton agreement to be applied fully, and since Bosniaks are against the peace agreement Dodik would like to have as little business with Bosniaks as possible. So Dodik's breakup politics is since Dayton agreement is distorted.
Yet according to original Dayton Accord the High Representative has absolute power in Bosnia. Dodik is contradicting his wishes with the reality.
@@Aboleo80 You know better then Dodik?
@@Quantum_Cola How?
@@Quantum_Cola He can do that LOL,also in agreements Bosniaks and Croats should have done few things but didnt,and in case there is discrimination against RS,he has right to revoke deals and call to original agreement(Dayton one)
Politics.
You mention Dodik's talks about secession but not how those talks came to be. The Bosniak government in Sarajevo was vowing to abolish Republic of Srpska and Dodik only answered to those threats!
Are your English sources that biased that they don't mention one of the most important factors of the issue. If that's how they report on the issue, I am very worried!
Thanks. I have discussed Bosnia in other videos. And I completely agree. I often make the point that while Dodik's calls for secession are destabilising, Bosniak calls for RS to be abolished are also a source of instability. But the Bosnian central government hasn't brought forward legislation to abolish it and so that's not the source of the crisis just at the moment.
By the way, I'm really not new to the Balkans. I really do know my way round the region. Look at my profile. :-) www.lse.ac.uk/LSEE-Research-on-South-Eastern-Europe/People/James-Ker-Lindsay
@@JamesKerLindsay "Bosniak calls for RS to be abolished are also a source of instability.... that's not the source of the crisis just at the moment."
Dodik didn't wake up one day and decide to stir up some mess for nothing. The talks of abolishing Srpska are scaring the people. Bosnia without Srpska would be an apartheid regime dominated by Bosniaks. A country where Serbs and Croats are 2nd rate citizens. You claim to know your way round the region. Then you must know what happened to the Croats living in the Federation of BiH. They don't have their own representative, their own voice, as Komšić is a Bosniak puppet. Serbs do not want the same thing to happen to them. With Dayton we were promised many freedoms and equality but the government in Sarajevo has been taking away our Dayton rights since the day the agreement was signed. Abolishing Srpska would be the last straw. "Threats of independence" are an answer to that. A simple fight for survival, a fight for our future.
You will be abolished by yourselves.
Thank you for a great video. I my self am a Bosnian Serb and I hope that there will not be a war. Honestly as someone who's family has been in war knows that it is the most horrible thing.
Bosnia is unfortunately a mini Yugoslavia with the same problems. People usually simplify this conflict and thinking it's a Serbian vs Bosnian problem. But it is much deeper than so. Croats were on Bosniak/Muslims side during the war(At least most of the time) and yet they are complaining about the same issues as we Serbs in Bosnia.
In my opinion Bosnia can only work as a federation with high independence for three entities. There is no way Serbs and Croats will over a night just agree on a unified Bosnia Herzegovina, and why should we? We had Yugoslavia which was much more powerful and yet we did not make it work. So why would it now.
Either some sort of federation or split up in three parts, the first option no one looses. Serbs are mostly fine with living in Bosnia but we don't want to loose even more rights that we got with the peace deal.
And honestly Dodik is only popular because of the Bosniak politicians. He did not even talk about secession back in the days when there were some sort of consensus.
Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate the response.
It has been interesting to see the replies I have been getting. Interestingly, those who support Dodik accuse me of being anti-Serbian. However, a lot of Serbs, both from Bosnia and Serbia, who oppose what he is doing understand that my criticism is clearly directed towards Dodik and not Serbs. After all, I made the point that Belgrade is not behind all this - an article of faith in true anti-Serbian circles! Also, if people read through my comments, I have been very critical of Bosniak nationalists and firmly reject calls for RS to be abolished. And I do believe this. I don’t believe that Bosnia can’t work under the Dayton System. It can. But only if people accept it and then work to iron out the problems. Certainly not an easy situation. But it is not made easier by the confrontation nationalist politicians across the country seem to prefer. In any case, I hope all is well over there. Thanks again.
@@JamesKerLindsay Don't worry about those people who label you :) This happens quite often when debating someone from the Balkans. I've been called Croat, Muslim, Albanian while debating with my own people.
I'm not a professional in this topic I only speak from my own thoughts and someone who has a somewhat mixed background with both Croats and Bosniaks in my family.
To me the only solution is a Federation or a Dayton solution. I don't think Bosnia Herzegovina doesn't work because of the fact it having 2 entities. It doesn't work because of the three people don't want to co-operate. I'm going to be somewhat biased now and say that Serbs at least after the Dayton were the ones that co-operated the most.
When ever there was a step forward with Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, the Bosniaks started their rhetoric. They don't even recognise the Dayton in many aspects. Croats for sure wouldn't have the same complaints like us Serbs if it only was Serbs fault.
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't remember Serb politicians talking about secession from 1995 to 2010. And like you said, Serbia only has to loose on a conflict because it will have to support Serbs in Bosnia and they will not get anything positive by this.
I will subscribe to your channel after watching it for half a day now :D
@@abc-eq9so Thanks so much once again for the great comment - and thank you also the kind subscribe. Again, I completely agree. I think the problem is a lack of will to cooperate, not a problem with the structure. Many federations work just fine. As I’ve said a few times in these comments, if Bosnia is to have a chance of success, it requires two things. First, Bosnian Serbs have to unquestioningly accept the existence of Bosnia as an independent sovereign state. Secondly, Bosniaks need to unquestioningly accept Republika Srpska as a constitutionally defined and protected autonomous entity within that sovereign state. Of course, there’s also the Bosnian Croat question. But perhaps we can leave that for another day!
Hvala puno i pozdrav iz Londona! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay - After all, I made the point that Belgrade is not behind all this ... Wrong. BG and president Vučić IS behind the latest crisis (with the support of Moscow and president Putin). Also, keep in mind the broader regional context - Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo and yes, Croatia of course.After all, history says so clearly - everything in Bosnia, since 1914 (and it started even earlier) IS directed by Belgrade.and Belgrade is, in one way or another, involved in these events.
@@nihadfilipovic9525 sorry, but you have no evidence for this. Again, I know that many people want to see the hidden hand of Serbia in this. But there is just no evidence for this at all. Watch the video again. I explain why.
The entire population of Bosnia-Herzegovina is only a third of the population of London. Sometimes I wonder why people in countries with so much land and with such a small population cannot get along, but a city packed with millions upon millions can somehow get along just fine.
You will learn it eventually by its own.
Thanks. There is indeed a certain logic to what you say. The sad thing is that the country is actually suffering from demographic decline. The problem isn't so much land. It's really about who exercises control over that land. As I also mentioned, I think the Bosniaks fear that if RS leaves then the Croats will try as well. If you look at a map, it will leave them in control of a small country squeezed between Serbia and Croatia.
@@JamesKerLindsay Although smaller, it will be their (Bosniaks) country, and only theirs.That might be much more productive and sustainable in the long term than the disfunctional status quo. But new potential borders would need to be (re)designed in order to prevent weird disconnected shapes. Much conflict is hidden in this undertaking and it is unlikely to happen. I think no action will currently lead to a good result. The challenge is to find the way of least damage.
@@grasschenz.9558 Thanks. Again, I can certainly see the logic of your argument. But people never really think these things through with much lucidity. I work on secession and yet I’m surprised at how rarely people involved in these situations, even senior political figures, have never really asked why they are determined to hold on to a territory. There’s very little real debate. People think in terms of territory, even over functionality.
@@grasschenz.9558 Splitting the federation is not a good thing.. Look at Mostar its a city that has 50% of the muslims and croats living together.. You try to split that and your going to get a another war... Im a Bosniak my self if you ask me we are not bothered if RS splits as long as it dosent end up war.. But the biggest issue is the croats splitting. I live in a croatian territory and i dont want my fucking house to be destroyed or burned like other peoples houses were in the 1990s.. So splitting the Federation is impossible you have Croats that live in Sarajevo, Mostar, Tuzla and Zenica.. Also you have Muslims that live in Mostar, Kiseljak, Travnik and other towns..
Thank you for covering my country again. It's been a stressful couple of days, not just with the political issues but also with major floods we faced. I read that republic of srpska will face some sanctions by Germany, meaning that Germany is not going to give money to RS anymore, and some other sanctions will also take place soon, so it makes total sense that RS would be isolated in case of proclaiming independence. As always great video.
Thank you so much. And so sorry to hear about the floods. This is such a serious problem for the country. I remember the terrible ones a few years ago, I hope you and your family are all OK. The last thing the country needs is that on top of everything else! Pozdrav iz Londona.
@@JamesKerLindsay London je centar imperijalizma, satanizma i prljavih globalnih planova. Trebaju Rusi to razoriti, uništiti i potopiti sa 3 Satana SS.
@@dragankrstic5222 Bre ćuti
@@andrejparunovic6888 Treba mu kažem, da se na vreme evakuira. Neka kupi stan u Banja luku.
I just don't understand how western power have not yet learnt that sacntions only affect ordinary people. Both Bosniaks and Serbs will feel that. Not Dodik or Bosniak politicans.
Dear James, thank you for once again doing a great job of informing your viewers about the current situation in my country! I appreciate it very much.
I agree with you on pretty much everything you said, especially on the Dodik issue. The Bosniak and Croat leaders aren't any better either. I also believe that the former HR is not free from blame, although, at first glance, a law prohibiting genocide denial seemed like a noble move. Unfortunately, some people regard their "freedom" to glorify war criminals as a fundamental human right. Some even go as far as saying that the law is denying them their existence. As a secular Bosniak, it pains me to read comments stating that Serbs and Croats in Bosnia somehow feel threatened by Bosniaks. It makes us sound like some kind of fundamentalist religious group when in reality the majority of us are secular and not that different from them. I just wish we could all behave like rational and empathic human beings who cooperate on crucial matters to ensure a brighter future for upcoming generations.
By the way, please don't take some of the comments as valid criticism. Unfortunately, many people from the Balkans tend to view themselves as better experts than actual experts, so it's only natural that you'd get nonsensical feedback like "you're anti-Serbian."
Great explanation !
We have the best opportunity to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina at this moment. The country is stable and has etnically homogenious parts. It is not yet an EU member which still allows us to discuss a better political solution for the country. With the current shape, Bosnia and Herzegovina will countinue to stagnate and eventually the whole population will emigrate.
Give a man a hand and they will take the whole arm. Same goes for Serbia, if they get Republika Sprska they will only want more. Bosnia should stay as it is. As for the emigration problem, this isnt just a problem in Bosnia, villages and towns are emptying up in all ex-yu countries as people find work opportunities in Germany, Switzerland, Austria etc.
TLDR, the balkans is fucked
@@AA-bz1pr They won't, believe me. This is not the 90s. Serbia would be pleased with gaining Republika Srpska and Brcko, thats it.
@@bingo737 It would be very difficult as the land borders are so fucked up with RS. Personally I believe that RS should stay Bosnian, as it is Bosnian land. On the other hand though, if RS became a part of Serbia, then why should Vojvodina stay as part of Serbia?
Edit: The president of Serbia himself said he had no interest in splitting up Bosnia, it's just Milorad Dodik who is purposely trying to fuck over the country so they have an excuse to take RS for themselves
@@AA-bz1pr Serbias president is just pretending, knowing his political career. Vojvodina is about 80% serbian so I don't see how it would be able to become independent. Ethnic affiliaton is above everything in the Balkans, remember.
@@AA-bz1pr I don't know where you from, but if you consider Balkans and it's states, you have to have in mind that Balkans have been part of Turkish empire and that Serbs fought Turks liberating territory from foreign invaders. People that received Islam during Ottoman ocupation / todays Bosniaks, have fought against liberation and they fought for foreigners. Then came WW1, Muslims once again fought on loosing side, while Serbs have gained victory and made Kingdom of Yugoslavia. In that time, in these current BiH borders, Serbs were majority. In WW2, Serbs once again were dominant majority in Yugoslavian partisans in Bosnia fighting Ustase and Handzar Division which was made up of Muslims. There was also a big portion of Muslims in partisans, but these numbers are small comparing to Handzar division. So, Bosnia exists because Serbs fought for the country otherwise it would be in Austrohungarian, German or Turkish empire. The sad thing is that Muslims became majority in 1960s mostly because Serbs suffered genocide in WW2, many of them have been relocated to Vojvodina by communist regime since Volkdeutschers/Germans have been driven out of the country, and Muslims had a high fertility rate much longer than Serbs and Croats.
James I have to draw attention to a few things. Dayton states that BiH territory is composed of two entities and three peoples, not a state. In international law, the term "entity" as referred to within BiH does not exist. In accordance with Dayton, the RS has the right to its own army, and in 2006 the RS army was not integrated into the BiH army, but an agreement was signed on the establishment of joint armed forces on a voluntary basis. In the event of any conflict, the army would be insignificant because it is in very poor condition and would probably disintegrate along national lines on the second day of the war. You further said that Serbia does not want a conflict in Bosnia and that is true, but it has a constitutional obligation and an obligation before the national defense strategy to regulate if RS is endangered, it should also be noted that after Dayton, police and army from the Federation of BiH must not enter RS and upside down in no case is EUFOR there to prevent that. Dodik has been repeating for a long time that he only wants strict respect for Dayton and what RS belongs to no less after Dayton.
Are us tupid or what? How can RS have right to own Army? How? Should USA have 51 or 52 Armys or do they have only 1, Should Canada have one or several, What about Brasil and Portugal, Spain England etc etc. Bosnia is elder then 90% of countries in Europe around it and its same ppl living in it. Their names are BOSNIAKS Or Bosnians. There is NO Serbs in Bosnia there is NO Croatians in Bosnia....Remember that and if u write about Bosnia bere u do so learn about the country then speak...
@@Mahalcanin74 To što si izneo u drugom delu svog komentara je čist poziv na etničko čišćenje.
Nice video, you touched a lot of subjects but I have to stress one thing out. When you said "in the first years after the war it all looked optimistic". You didn't meantion the fact the High Representative used all of his powers to take certain Serb and Croatian political rights. How many Serb politicans were removed from power? What about the destruction of the Croatian "Hercegovačka banka" bank in 2001. by the UN? What about the destruction of the Crotian autonomy in 2001? What about puting Komšić in power even if 99% of his votes were not by Croatian voters? When you write that the 1996 - 2011 period being a positive period you are only giving a one-sided view, a Bosniak-sided view. Cheers!
Yes, he gave very biased analysis, not 100% biased, but largely.
A wonderful video as always, things really seem to spiral out of control once again.
But I would also like to know about greco-turkish relationship and any potential conflict that may come from it.
Thank you so much. As you know, my original area of academic work was on Greek-Turkish relations and Cyprus. I am always keen to do videos on the relationship. Let me look into it.
Thanks for the heads up on Bosnia. What do you think is the possibility of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement in the near future?
Thanks. Great question. I am actually hoping to do another video on Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and Azerbaijan fairly soon.
@@JamesKerLindsay good to know. I've recently discovered your channel and it's just awesome! Watching from Azerbaijan. Thanks!
Great! Really glad to hear it. Welcome to the channel. :-) And warmest greetings from London.
I don't understand why there are ethnic tensions in the Balkans, even though they aren't really that different ethnically
Exactly. Ethnicity isn't even picked up by DNA tests, you can literally choose what you identify as, and it won't make much of a difference to how your blood differs from the next person - especially if you've lived in the same area for centuries. It's a personal decision. E.g. both Novak Đoković and Dražen Petrović have a Croatian mother and a Serbian father. But Đoković identifies as Serbian because that's where he grew up, and Petrović identified as Croatian because that's where he grew up.
Because of culture, religion, role models, distrust and so on. People are actually getting well in private life with each other but when it comes to history and politics we all have different positions and our own truths.
Because of insecurity in identity of certain balkan ethnicities, when everyone around you is so similiar to you, that makes you question who you really are and if you dont have good answers you start getitng insecure and then hateful and then genocidal etc
Religion plays a part
@@numenoreaneternity6682 Predominately is what 30%, 40% , 50% +? You wont find ukrainian/polish/russian looking slav types in west balkans, at best they will look a bit like east slavs and a bit like local dinaric people.
You "forgot" to mention the most important thing. The so-called "integration" of the judiciary, the army and finances in BiH was carried out with unprecedented violence, violation of the Dayton Agreement, the Constitution and apartheid against one million citizens of the Republika Srpska. According to the still valid Constitution, Srpska has the right to its army, judiciary, tax system and everything else. and it will return with full respect for Dayton and the Constitution.
There is nothing in the Constitution that allows RS it's own army, in fact if he forms one that is a criminal offence (rather several) and triggers other mechanisms in the constitution. Serb ultra-nationalists (Dodik) need to really stop indoctrinating their own people and leading them into further poverty and civil unrest for the sake of being able to cover up their own corruption. Dodik started to act wild when Affair Kiseonik became a thing and now no one is talking about that. Serbian ultranationalism and expansionism (led by politicians) has led more Serbs to death and poverty than anything else. When is it time for all Bosnians to live in Bosnia normally in prosperity and peace?
@@queenofstrongstyle Hahaha. The Constitution explicitly states what powers and functions Bosnia and Herzegovina has and states that everything that is not explicitly stated as a duty of BiH "belongs to the entities". In Dayton accords, the Army of the Republika Srpska exist's, the "Army of BiH" doesn't. You tell lies like other Muslims, read the Constitution for the begining.
When was there violence when the armies were integrated? Integration occurred because at the time Republika Srpska government AGREED to it. I want you to see beyond the manipulations of your politicians. People of RS are the poorest in the region while Dodik is a millionaire. He only gets these ideas in his head when there is another corruption scandal that comes out about him like Kiseonik. Please see past the indoctrination and manipulation that is only leading the population of RS into poverty.
@@doktornauka1 You're assuming that I'm Muslim. I'm Bosnian-Serb/Bosnjiakian mixed. I was in Bosnia during the war. Your government is lying to you. To set you up to forever work for minimum wage and be ready to go to war when they want you to but at least you get to call your self a Serb. If that kind of life is enough for you that's your choice, but it would never be enough for me.
@@queenofstrongstyle The merging of armies was part of the violence against Republika Srpska. The High Representative illegally fired Serbian politicians and imposed laws. It was about apartheid over a million people and now it needs to be undone. How people live in Republika Srpska is not a problem for you Muslims. Srpska had the lowest increase in the number of deaths in the first Covid year in the entire Western Balkans. and the "Kiseonik affair" is a false affair planted with anti-Serbian intentions.
Hi respect you for your honest work
Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate it.
Hello from Morocco. Thank you for the fantastic content
Thank you so much. Really appreciated.
thanks so much for the introduction on the current tensions boiling up in Bosnia. It reignited my curiosity as to why this country even exists in the first place, in spite of the ethnic tensions present. Why did BH follow the SFRY's borders, knowing that tension was likely? Was there a sort of Bosnian identity amongst the Bosnian Serbs / Croats?
Thanks so much Jack! It is such a complex problem. Made harder by the fact that many people on the ground - as you may have seen in the comments - fundamentally reject the basis of the Dayton Agreement. Many Serbs want secession. And Many Bosniaks want to abolish Republika Srpska.
Great question about identity. I was having a debate with a Bosnian Serb this morning. He insisted that there's no such things as a Bosnian Serb. They want nothing to do with Bosnia. I disagree. (And I say this as someone with some rather close insights on Bosnian Serbs.) While they see themselves as Serbs, they also see themselves as having an attachment to the land that is Bosnia. They are different from Serbs from, say, Vojvodina or Kosovo. They have their own traditions. They speak with a different accent. In this sense, a lot depends on each person. We see this in many situations. I saw it in Cyprus. There some Greek Cypriots see themselves as Greeks. Some see themselves as Greeks from Cyprus. Some see themselves as Cypriots, albeit with Greek cultural heritage. It gets complicated. But these things are often highly personal decisions.
@@JamesKerLindsay Serbs from Bosnia and Serbs from Serbia differ ass Englishman from Hampshire and Lincolnshire
@@JamesKerLindsay This james about Serbs being different in BiH to the Serbs in Serbia's northern province of vojvodina is far from the truth since many originally come from Bosnia since the second world war to those parts alot more than say southern Serbia.
@@slobodanstamenic1425 which is quite a lot, as it happens. Northerners vs Southerners and all that! :-)
@@bilic8094 Indeed. But this is also interesting because native Vojvodinians will often treat people who come from Bosnia as very different, often looking down on them. And this in turn means that many Bosnian Serbs in Vojvodina actually have a stronger sense of their links to Bosnia. Indeed, many still see Serbia as different from Bosnia and talk of going back there to retire. (I say this with a very particular insight into this very situation.) And I’m not saying this from the perspective of Serbia in particular. All nations have internal differences. It’s just that a number of commenters here have tried to present the view that Serbs are all one united nation will no such differences. This is just not true. Some might see themselves that way. Other won’t. As I said, identity is complex.
Whoa James, these videos are amazing! Thank you so much for your hard work and making these informative videos!
Thank you so much! I have to say that these are the comments I really love getting. :-)
Have a great rest of the weekend.
Hi James when will a Greenland video be coming out? 👀
Hi James - how possible or likely a scenario would it be that Serbia recognizes Kosovo in exchange for the annexation of RS if such a deal were proposed?
Even if Serbia recognized Kosovo it would not matter. Double standards are at play here, the West does not care about international law, peace, quality of life...unless it benefits them directly. You have one of the largest military bases in Kosovo, you really think that Albanians can do anything without the US? Same with Bosnia, it's a protectorate not a sovereign nation. So, yeah, god knows what to expect.
As a Bosniak, i can tell you the situation is indeed really tense in Bosnia, the Serbs just dont like Bosnia as a state an want their own thinh
Dokle ćeš lagati sebe i druge?
@@maestrovlajko sta sam slago? Da srbi ne vole Bosnu ?
@@runer3139 Dopuni da Srbi ne vole islamski radikalizam! Vole Bosnu kao svoj zavičaj.
@@maestrovlajko volje Bosnu bez drugih naroda osim srba
@@maestrovlajko ne volimo ni mi srpski nacionalizam, murale ratku mladicu, negiranje masovnih grobnica itd.
I have been following some of your videos on the Balkan issues. I find them mostly impartial. However, this video was my complete dissappointment, it is not based on facts and lacks analitical approach.
Lets start with secession of Bosnia and Herzegovina from the remains of Yugoslavia. According to the constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, at that time, secession of that federative republic was possible ONLY with mutual consent of Bosnian Muslims, Croats and Serbs. Bosnian Serbs did not want to succede from Yugoslavia. The core issue of Bosnian conflict is that Serbs and Croats do not want to be marginalized by Bosnian Muslims or as they call themselvs nowdays Bosniacs (that is, BTW, an ordinary national construct of Austro-Hungarian historian and minister Benjamin von Kallay. Paradocsically, that word was an Ottoman derogatory word that has it’s roots in the Turkish word boş (null, blank, empty) that has nothing to do with people of Bosnia, Bosnians but was sign of disrespect.)
Although Bosnian Muslims are promoting some (virtual) civil society, reality is quite opposite and some statements from their public figures are quite troublesome. That is creating huge discomfort for both Serbs and Croats.
The last census results were questioned and not recognized by everyone in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Christian Smidth has not been appointed to be UN High representative, he was imposed by western countries and not recognised by all members of the UN’s security council, including China and Russia, furthermore, not recognised by Bosnian Serbs. His report to the UN has not been accepted and was ignored in the Security Council.
High representatives are, actually those who are source of numerous current disputes. It was Baron Paddy Ashdown who stripped some major rights of the Serb republic. Mr Dodik just wants them back since they are part of the Dayton peace agreement. Mr Inzko’s mandate was not to impose “laws”. There are constitutional ways of doing that in a country with a Continental legal system. That “law” is against freedom of speech. Everyone is deeply sad with events in Bosnia and Herzegovina committed by all belligerent sides. However, they can not be catagorized as a genocide, as you stated in the video. Otherwise, many other events in history of other countries (including British) can be “re-evaluated”.
Mr Dodik wants rights granted to the Serbian republic by the Dayton peace agreement, nothing more.
Thanks Micko. I don't think this video was biased. Or no more biased than my other ones. I call things as I see them. I know that there are a lot of problems in Bosnia. And I know that the Serbs are not responsible for them. I have been very critical of calls for RS to be abolished. But in this instance, Dodik has been ramping up the pressure. And this isn't new. In 2016, I was writing about his efforts over the previous few years to stir up talk of secession. He wants to get rid of the HR, but even as many Bosnian Serbs now acknowledge, it's his behaviour that has convinced outsiders that the HR role needs to remain. Whatever he wants, he is going about it all wrong.
@@JamesKerLindsay I don't understand your opposition to a partitioned Bosnia. Forcing these ethnicities to coexist and ramping them under a fictional nationality is only bound to cause further issues and build up further tension. I don't understand how that is supposed to be more peaceful than allowing the ethnic Serbs to live in Serbia. To me, what Dodik is doing is the more peaceful solution. The status quo in Bosnia is only bound to create tension.
@@andrej4342 because these issues extend well beyond the Balkans. If we create a path for secession in Bosnia then it will encourage groups all over the world. Now, few would argue against this if the Bosnian government agreed. But, as long as it doesn’t, no one will try to force it to do so. And very few countries are willing to discuss secession. Also, allowing RS to breakaway would send the message that secessionist groups can enter a peace agreement but then bring it down and get what they want. That’s a really bad precedent to set. Anyway, all this is why no one wants to go down this route.
@@JamesKerLindsay That is a little hypocritical to state seeing how, when it is in the interest of western powers, secessions are perfectly fine. The precedent on the Balkans has already been set with the unilateral decleration of Kosovo, which is mostly universally supported by the western world even though it clearly breaks the UNSC resolution 1244. And on the topic of UNSC, remember when it forbid NATO millitary involvement in Yugoslav internal affairs, which NATO promptly ignored and went on to bomb civilian targets and infrastructure across Serbia under a guise of "humanitarianism"? That is a far more dangerous precedent to break. You are very highly biased. Supporting secrssionist movements is bad, unless NATO needs a military base there. Then it's justifiable.
@@andrej4342 Thanks. Sadly, Kosovo had complicated all these discussions. People in Serbia now compare everything to Kosovo. But Kosovo is a problematic case in so many ways. It hasn’t been handled in the way that other situations have. This is why I was critical of its independence. Every time I try to explain the ‘normal’ situation under international law when it comes to secession, I get: ‘but Kosovo’. But Kosovo isn’t the norm. That’s why it is only recognised by half the world and isn’t in the UN.
Hey James, I'd like to throw a video idea into the hat. I've many friends from the area who are increasingly discussing the possibility of state disintegration, fragmentation, or even occupation in Lebanon. There's frustratingly little informed sources of postulation and information regarding the topic and I'd be fascinated to hear your view. Especially considering the political, historical, and cultural contexts between Lebanon and Bosnia-Herzegovina seem so striking in their parallels and equally significant
Thank you so much. That is a really fantastic suggestion. I have wanted to do a video on Lebanon for ages. I have always been fascinated by the country. I went a couple of years after the war when they were starting on reconstruction. I also lived in Cyprus for many years and had lots of Lebanese friends there and my sister lived in Beirut for three years. So, lots of links. I really should take a look at the situation.
@@JamesKerLindsay it's amazing to hear that Lebanon also crosses some personal wires and that has of course made me even more excited to hear your particular views and findings. Here's hoping the time presents itself and, regardless of topic, I can hardly wait for more informative analysis. Appreciate your great work James
Thanks so much!
Hi james would you do videos on my countrys Ethiopa current development??????
Ich glaube du hast keine ahnung ! Bosnien wäre ein besseres Land ohne Enliglische und Deutsche einmischung.......
You missed to show the Serbian point of view in this analysis. The Serbs in Bosnia didn't start seeking independence out of the blue, but because during the years, slowly but steadily, BiH started being more and more centralized mostly by Bosniak and foreign votes and by the decisions of ''high representatives'' (foreigners that come to this country, sign a paper and make it into a law without any approval from the actual population, sounds very democratic ik). By all these actions Republika Srpska is slowly becoming just a mere province losing its rights that are guaranteed by the Dayton agreement. You also didn't mention that Croats are also very unsatisfied by the situation where Bosniaks vote Croatian representatives that later advocate Bosniak interests and not Croatian.
The latest law that the high representative enforced was the last drop in the glass, because not a single Serb believes that the crime in Srebrnica can be classified as genocide and now they can end up in jail because of that. All peoples in former Yugoslavian countries have their own version of what happened and their own point of view and now some foreigner comes and tries to force a different point of view on the Serbs. I know the international court in Hague classified this as a genocide, but you also have to understand that the same court released so many people that were responsible for the crimes against Serbs that no one here believes that the court in Hague is an independent court and not a political one. You just need to look at the numbers where 90% of the convicted by that court are Serbs, even though Serbs make more than 30% of all the casualties. in the end, the so called western democratic world failed to explain to us even after so many years that we are really the only ones to be blamed, probably because it doesn't make sense.
Lastly, there is a continuous pressure on the Serbs where everyone get the rights for self-determination, even autonomous provinces, and when Serbs ask for the same rights they either get ethnically cleansed like in Croatia or they start getting blamed for provoking a war.
Don't eat what priests tell you.
@@bravo4741 I’m just using my own head. Also one more thing, Serbia is trying to keep the peace and we are sick of the wars, specially now that our country is finally developing fast, but if someone thinks we will leave Republika Srpska behind they are wrong.
@@srcolesl You are comedian 😁
RS is built by genocide, cannot exist.
Kosovo was separated so you don't commit new genocide!
@tom gu you are nobody 😂
@@bravo4741 Why Krajina was not separated from Croatia then, to save Serbs from Oluja? Because West loves only Croats, Bosnian Muslims and Albanians, and forgets about Serbs' sufferings and Serbs' feelings.
this video is amazingly well done
Thank you so much! By the way, I am hoping to do another video on Bosnia fairly soon.
@@JamesKerLindsay the situation with state-owned land (and new press freedom laws) in republika srpska could be of interest to you, since things are getting quite heated up, especially with Dodik breaking ties with the UK and US
I hope you make a video on Bosnia soon, since your videos are really comprehensible and a delight to watch!
coming from BiH i find Your channel very interesting, liked and subscribed
girl: I can fix him
him:
1. Bosnia and Herzegovina under Dayton Peace Agreement is "CONFEDERATION" and it is proved by the fact that there are three presidents with VETO powers to any decision.
2. About the military question, here are the facts:
2.1. In Dayton Peace agreement it is written that there are three official and legal militaries among them Army of Republic of Srpska.
2.2. There is not a single letter were it says that those armys must or will join into one single army at any point in the future.
2.3. From 1995 till the present day there is not a single Serbian or Serbian politician who would accept a transfer of any authority's from the level of Republic of Srpska to the Confederation level by free will and without threats, not a single one.
2.4. Therefore all High Representatives from 1995 till today have been deposing and dismissing Serbian politicians who were refusing to transfer Authority's to Confederation level, among them were 148 Serb politicians and bureaucrats (even the President of Republic of Srpska Nikola Poplasen).
2.5. When the High Representatives got tired of dismissing our politicians they started to read Dayton peace agreement "by the Spirit of agreement" and started to centralize Bosnia and Herzegovina by its wish.
2.6. If there were any referendum offered to the people of Republic of Srpska they would refuse any transfer of Authority's to Confederation level.
3. Milorad Dodik is elected man in Republic of Srpska and for all what he is saying people are voting and supporting him when are elections, so you must understand that he is executor of the peoples will. Plus he is the only man who can win President Vucic in potential elections in Serbia, people of Serbia like him that much.
Great comments. Especially about how this is being caused by renegading on the Dayton agreement (your “spirit of the law” comment).
@@FIRSTPLAYLISTRSM I have put these comments four times in different days and Mr. James Ker-Lindsay saw them but unfortunately had no arguments to oppose or make counter-comment.
@@bakisastilom Your are not following their prescribed narrative so they are not interested. Thanks for nice summary of arguments :)
@@bakisastilom Mr. James only have opinion when someone's comment is similar to his opinion. In one comment he stated that many call him anti-Serbian, well i think that is well deserved!
You started with false statement. Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a confederation. Confederation means that two or more countries came together and formed alliance or union. Also, The member states of the confederation are independent subjects of international law and they retain their sovereignty. Since neither Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina nor Republic of Srpska were countries before Dayton Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot be confederation. Also, only legal and sovereign and independent subject is Bosnia and Herzegovina, not Federation or RS.
Also, law about defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina was voted in Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In order to rule out the law about merged army, you would need majority in the Parliament and everything else would be against country and country's law or in other words -
coup d'etat.
your videos are really good earned a new sub here.
Dodik is not biggest problem of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If you move Dodig, a new "Dodik" will arise right after. Bosnia and Herzegovina is deeply divided country, keeping together by force.
After peace treaty ended war, conflict had been continued by other means than guns. New Bosniak nation arise looking for its emancipation by pushing two other nations to comply to their rule. High representative supported this politics. Peace treaty has been violated repeatedly. Now no-one follow what has been signed by peace treaty. Even high representative has not been appointed by rules of peace treaty. That is why you have a conflict.
True
Im far for neutral in this situation, to me it seems like the best and only real solution would be a confederate Bosnia with 3 entities. And no ethnic vetos but just entity vetos. Unfortunately the common judiciary and army have brought nothing but conflict upon us.
Hvala James as always its very good to hear from somebody whos perspective is different and who is trying to be as neutral and objective as possible. Keep up the good work!
To me, the best solution would be to dissolve the RS, replace Dayton with a proper constitution, and use NATO/EU pressure (ie, peacekeepers, and threat of force if necessary) to help motivate the foot-draggers and nationalist extremist assholes
@@WordToMomsYo So inforce violence on an ethnic group. Even if the entire international community would agree to that it would cause a war. Any dissolution of RS or Bosnia is not possible with out war which in the case of dissolving RS would cause major ethnic cleansing at best.
@@thelastrunamv8488 I do not agree with your premise. There is no guarantee that a slow, methodical, gradual weakening of RS would lead to war. RS can't fight a war, it's too small and doesn't have the resources. The federation doesn't want a war and it's not in its interest to fight a war. These things don't happen overnight, but it's time for Dayton to be replaced with a constitution, and for the insane tripartite presidency to be replaced with one leader for one nation.
@@WordToMomsYo that would go against literally all the Serbs and Croats want. It is not a option.
@@WordToMomsYo keep dreaming
You know, what is currently playing out is just a massive "well done" and tap on my shoulder. I spent my youth looking at misery and poverty, growing up in a disfunctioning country. I'm so glad to see that my decision to study abroad in Europe was a very good one, despite everyone having their eyes smeared with marmalade who kept telling me "no you should've stayed". I'm looking forward to live a much better life and not turn my back towards this ruined mess of what some people call a country.
Thank you. It is so sad to hear this view. But it's a view that I hear a lot and is very understandable. Of course, this is nothing new with Bosnia. People have been migrating away for decades. Even in the 1960s and 1970s people were leaving for a better life elsewhere in Yugoslavia. The war obviously made things even worse. And even now almost everyone with any ambition wants to pick up and leave. It is so sad. It is such a beautiful country. But it has so many problems. In any case, I wish you well with the studies.
Bosnia is a beautiful country
This discussion is important.
Thank you. I agree. It really is a worrying situation. But hopefully it won't lead to conflict.
Thank you again for an exceptional video. I have to admit that I don't understand the politics of the former Yugoslavia. In my opinion, if two (or more) major ethnic constituents of the country cannot get along, partition is the best option. I don't understand why there's such opposition for Republika Srpska breaking away, but not for Kosovo for example.
That's a good point.
The reason is that western powers want the Serbian people to remain as weak as possible
@@rhino6285 my comment is more general than that, it applies to a number of cases. I don't think there's a Western conspiracy against Serbia, though power sharing politics (Serbia is seen as an ally of Russia) may be in place.
Because of politics, really.
The best solution for Balkan's situation *would probably* be to unite Kosovo with Albania and RS with Serbia, but no "side" wants to agree on either thing because it doesn't suit their politics. But well, I digress...
Greetings from the RS. Another refreshingly impartial and objective video James! Question if I may: As surely you know, the Russia and China refused to confirm Mr. Schmidt in the Security Council and together with the RS authorities claim that BiH doesn't have UN High Representative at the moment. Do you have a view informed by the international law on the matter? Do we have the HR or don't? The latest resolution (the EUFOR Althea one), that was coordinated between all of the SC member states, doesn't even mention the OHR at all...
The High Representative should be abolished or at least the Bonn Powers(which will mostly ignored in Republika Srpska... I hope)
"objective video"??
@@goranmarinic2923 Navlaka
This would cause absolute chaos, guess we'll all lose our jobs again
Yes indeed. Very worrisme.
Chaos was already caused in 1999 when NATO illegally attacked an independent country in civil war against separatist movement.
Great video! Be careful with certain (if not all) topics about the Balkan countries, people tend to get really mad and offended about nearly everything online.
Thanks so much. Fortunately, I’ve got a lot of experience with the Balkans. But I do like to point out that I’m equal opportunity. I have even found and upset nationalist Slovenes! :-)
But you’re right. And it’s often the most shouty, abusive and aggressive ones who comment, which then puts other people off writing their thoughts. It’s a shame as I am always ready and keen to have reasonable discussions.
Thank you for this video, James! I am of the opinion that this is, as you said, "keeping the situation simmering", rather than letting it boil over. Dodik's threats seem huge on paper, and they might even be legally doable; but still, RS already had an independence referendum in 2018, and nothing came of it. At times it really feels as if Vučić and Dodik are playing the good cop, bad cop game with the West - Dodik stirs up a crisis, and Vučić talks with the West. It certainly isn't the first such game between Banja Luka and Belgrade.
Thanks so much Aleksa. I completely agree that simmering but not boiling over is the goal for Dodik, at least at the moment. But I'm not sure that I'd agree about Vucic though. I just don't see what he really has to gain by any instability in Bosnia. It takes up his time and reminds everyone that Serbia played a part in creating the mess. It is also an unwelcome distraction from Kosovo. He can't be seen to take one line on Kosovo and a contradictory position on Bosnia. My sense is that he would really like nothing more than for it to fade away as an issue. That said, he does know that as long as there are problems in Bosnia, and the Bosnian Serbs feel under threat, he has to be seen to be defending their interests. Again, I think he's just love to see the back of it!
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for the answer, James. I do not think his lines on Kosovo and Bosnia would be contradictory - in both cases he is nominally for the preservation of internationally recognized borders, which from a Serbian perspective means Kosovo in Serbia, RS in Bosnia. I think he has something to gain in having the image of the more cooperative Serb leader, like how Milošević was considered more reliable than Karadžić. He definitely has to be the defender of Serbs outside of Serbia - otherwise his popularity would plummet significantly.
I do think it takes away a certain amount of attention from Kosovo, which is a much more important issue; but that process has been infinitely stalled ever since Kurti came to power, and it seems like it's not going to become any better soon. I've heard Kurti's no-compromise stance lauded by Kosovar Albanians, but it feels as if he thinks he can ignore Kosovo's Western sponsors - doesn't seem too smart when leading an unrecognized state. Florian Bieber compares Vetëvendosje with the Serb Radicals in their unwillingness to compromise and cooperate, and Kurti's posturing makes me think that parallel is very much true. What are your thoughts, especially given Kurti's terrible loss in the recent municipal elections?
@@aleksakrivosija8248 Thanks. I completely agree on Vetevensosje. They are completely unrealistic on talks with Serbia. I often say that their position seems to be that if Belgrade gives them everything they want then they might just consider possibly letting Serbia recognise Kosovo! :-) I’ve never held Kurti in particularly high regard. But people in Kosovo seemed to lap up his cod philosophy. He’s always reminded of Paul Krugman’s description of Newt Gingrich: “he’s what stupid people think an interlude by person sounds like.” (The amusing irony in that case is that Gingrich was in fact an evil genius. It takes something to pass off John Kerry as an elitist snob for speaking French and being educated when you are in fact a professor international history who wrote a PhD on Belgian decolonisation - which necessarily requires knowing French!) But it will be interesting to see if LV start to rethink their position. As it happens, I’ve actually have had good relations with PDK over the years and I got the sense they genuinely wanted a deal with Serbia under Thaci, including a land deal - but that was killed off by Germany and the U.K. I know many hated this option, but it was a lost opportunity to my mind.
@@JamesKerLindsay The land swap deal was, to my knowledge, considered far too destabilizing, as it would start a whole array of secessionist movements and completely change the landscape of all the states in the region. But looking from Serbia that seems to be a bit of a late afterthought, not a preventive measure - the unilateral declaration of Kosovo's independence has effectively given many secession and independence movements more strength: Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea certainly fall into that category, despite being Russian protectorates, and I doubt that Catalonia and Scotland are completely detached from it.
A land swap in which Kosovar Serbs would come under the Serbian central government would be more consistent, not less. It would also have been a situation in which the Kosovar government could defy its Western partners (as Kurti wants) by rejecting their stance (in this case the UK and Germany), while actually solving the problem and becoming its own state, finally recognized by Serbia.
While that move certainly would have been unpopular in Serbia, Vučić knew it was the only thing he could actually do, other than stalling forever, considering we have no police and military jurisdiction in Kosovo, and can only posture on the administrative line with our armoured vehicles and helicopters. As is, I don't see any solution until Kurti leaves office, as his inflammatory rhetoric makes even reconciliation difficult, let alone mutual recognition.
If the Republica Srpska declared independence unilaterally, then Serbia would be in a tough spot. On the one hand, it wants to do it to solidify its position in the Balkans, on the other hand, it would almost certainly face some kind of sanctions and most importantly, give Kosovo's independence, which happened in much the same way, more legitimacy.
Thanks. Great point. That is exactly the problem for Serbia. And that is why, despite the view in some quarters that Serbia is behind all the problems in Bosnia, I disagree. Bosnia is actually a real problem for Belgrade. It can do real damage to Serbia, and would bring no real gain. People actually have a degree of understanding for Serbia’s position on Kosovo (even if they wish it was different), but that would all disappear if it was seen, or even felt, to be supporting RS secession. It would also do untold damage in other areas. Economic investment would dry up. Serbia is growing fast at the moment. It doesn’t need to throw it all away again chasing unachievable nationalist ambitions.
@@JamesKerLindsay Well, it would be a decent deal. Kosovo independence for Republic Srpska independence (including the city between the two parts). If Kosovo becomes independent one day it is only fair that Republic Srpska and other regions of the world have it as well.
@@joao49758 do you really think they would allow anything for the Serbs?
Exchange one place where Serbs commited genocide for an other place where Serbs Serbs commited genocide. Great Idea But what if children of victims have some more appropriate idea - revenge.
@@billybilal7331 Serbs survived genocide in WWII. We won't allow it again. Whatever it takes.
am From Bosnia no one wants war here
Thanks so much. Really good to hear. I have picked that up from a few of the comments. Let's hope that things do calm down. But there still needs to be some effort to shape a more constructive future for the country. These repeated crises are so damaging.
Pozdrav iz Londona.
@@JamesKerLindsay dude there is just like no one to go fight Bosnia is like 60% old ppl i am 25 and all my friends who are younger or a bit older then me can't even carry a gun LOL
all Dodik is doing is trying to win votes
bc there is only 1 way to get votes and you have to show that you are a BIG SERB
@@JamesKerLindsay One thing that the EU should consider when considering whether or not to get involved in easing tensions is the fact that all Bosnians citizens have visa free access to the EU for up to 90 days. If a conflict erupted, you'd have 2 million or more people crossing the border into the EU overnight. This would be both a humanitarian disaster but it would also be a political and economic disaster for the EU (since according to UN treaty on asylum seekers, the first country that refugees enter are obligated to grant them asylum status)
Talking about srebernica massacre seems out of context if you don’t refer to the entire cascade of events. All three sides committed war crimes to varying degrees. Running around that fact seems a bit divisive. If we’re being honest, “Three way war” is a euphemism for they were all committing atrocities on one another. The HVO’s warcrimes should be noted as well as the Bosnian Armies massacres of Serbian towns. All sides were subject to brutality. Yes srebernica was the largest, but not the only one. That needs to be reiterated.
I would love to hear your take on the Croat's intense push towards a new electoral law which would distance the ethnicities even more.
We Serbs want just return to the Original Dayton-Agreement before it was corrupted by the High Representative with his Bonn-Powers, Constitutional Court or the Politicans themself because of western pressure without Referendum! In my opinion it's a legitim action
Why they don’t allow Republic of Srpska to secede and rejoin Serbia? Also, why not Croatian Bosnian territories join Croatia? If Bosnia & Hercegovina doesn’t work as it is now, wouldn’t it make more sense to create an only muslim Bosnian state? If the 3 communities do not get along and are not able to work together, I don’t get why they keep this situation going…
Same reason as to why doesn't Spain allow Catalonia to succede. Same reason as to why doesn't Serbia recognise Kosovo and let them join Albania.
@Fernando Mallafré
Because RoS was created on mass graves. Thats not comparable and the communities do get along, its the politicians that create conflicts
the people get very good by... trust me, it's not on them
@@Amir_97 RoS was created based on the will of the people and not on mass graves. It exists, it won't go away and its rights and aspirations have to be respected.
Are there any polls on what the common people think/want? How is the split between support for a clean split-up vs. maintaining the Dayton system among the Bosniak, Serb and Croat populations within BiH? To put it another way, if there was a referendum now on how to proceed, would the majority support trying to chug along somehow or a managed divorce?
“nemojte misliti da nećete odvesti BiH u pakao, i muslimanski narod možda i nestane. muslimanski narod se ne može braniti ako bude rat ovdje.”
This is the Serb nationalist extremist mentality Bosnian political leaders faced as they considered a declaration of independence. It really isn’t all that different from the intransigent, parochial, chauvinistic nationalism they face today.
Perhaps if in 1991/1992 the Serbs had been led by politicians who were more humane, circumspect and reflective, leaders who were more cosmopolitan and egalitarian in their outlook, leaders who saw that each republic should naturally emerge to form successor independent states based on the borders that had existed for the previous 50 years and that had not been an issue for anyone, then perhaps all the bloodshed and misery of the following decade could have been avoided.
But it’s the nationalist chauvinist assholes who still run the show in Banja Luka, so there’s little hope for a logical, humane solution to any of this.
@Mike Wiki How is the weather in Germany ?
For those knowing several languages it is interesting to see how media and news in different countries cover this topic in a very different light, nearly diametrically opposed to eachother. Here is a small comparison of keywords, that I collected during the last 3 weeks:
1) Media in Republika Srpska (RS) and Serbia:
- avoiding further centralisation of Bosnia.
- saving RS from being abolished.
- going back to original Dayton agreement and bringing back the rights that were actually given and snatched away from us due to international pressure during the last 15 years.
- nobody in RS wants war, and we can't even afford one financially.
- is it financially possible to take back those rights? (by opposition)
- Dodik and SNSD are corrupt. (by opposition).
- If there is aggression against us whe hope for the support of our "friends" (Dodik).
2) Media by Bosniaks, in English, in German (Austria, Germany), in French:
- Serbian Aggression.
- Serbian separatism and threats of secession.
- danger of Greater Serbia.
- Serbs in RS want to break Dayton Peace Agreement.
- dark hand of Belgrade and Moskau.
- genocide, genocide, genocide.
- war, war, war.
- danger of a new war. RS is warmongering.
- danger of new genocide due to reborn army of RS?
- Russian aggression and expansionism in the Balkans. Europe's borders under threat.
- Bosnia is desperate for help from US and NATO. Stationing of more troops from EUFOR is also discussed.
- US should consider canceling Dayton agreement and abolishing RS.
- Sanctions are needed badly to show the Serbs who really is in power.
- RS is an autocratic regime. RS has no future.
I am very careful not to get emotional about this, but realistically 25 % of Western media coverage was outright lying and inverting facts, 30 % is extreme exaggeration, and the rest sounds like warmongering and panicking to my ears.
Nonetheless, from my Serb perspective the rhetoric Dodik chose wasn't the most beneficial one, actually quite stupid. He wants to take back rights, that are really given by Dayton, but spoke of "secession".
Brings back memories ... During media coverage of the Bosnian and Jugoslav wars the attrocities committed by Serbs were described in the smallest details, while attrocities commited by others weren't even mentioned. I love objective Western media ...
In contrast to that you did a great job in trying to show both sides of the medaille, especially in the comment section. Thank you, James.
Read why Bosnia matters, by Christopher Hitchens. Bosnia is also the only country that had tertiary tombs which means somebody dug up the bodies (skeletons) 2 more times after killing them in the area of Srebrenica. And of course, you are very welcome to come and see about the dead kids of Sarajevo, the Sarajevo tunnel, the story about a sniper killing a small girl and the many stories about the raped women of Bosnia. You also have graffiti that are making fun of bosniaks woman on a wall in Srebrenica.
Which rights were granted in the Dayton agreement that were later taken away that you're talking about?
@Grässchen Z. "No one wants war", while during Christmas serbs drive around mosques with guns and sing songs about glorifying war crimes, yeah you guys truly don't want no war lmao. So are you saying Dodik and SNSD are not corrupt? You are basically listing the things you want to hear vs the things you don't want to hear, but need to hear.
Yugoslav federation was unlawfully dismantled
A country that is ‘stable’, only insofar as it doesn’t outlaw genocide denial, is not stable at all. A country which has half its territory fully autonomous is not able to coherently function either. Surely the average Bosnian citizen can see that economic and social progress requires moving beyond ethnic separatism that has only led to bloodshed in a country which is comparatively tiny.
Republika Srpska and Serbia unite and the problem is solved.
Holocaust denial is a crime in Germany, and I would hardly call their nation/society “unstable.” It’s the type of measure a society takes when it is serious about rooting out nationalist extremist tendencies within the nation.. and I’d say the results of this Zero Tolerance for Nationalist Chauvinist Historical Revisionism program have been a stunning success in Germany. The Serbs could learn a thing or two.
@@WordToMomsYo Thing is that some foreigner representative can't just unilaterally push the law for a genocide denial which is aimed against one ethnicity in a country where you have 3
constitutive people. Do you know how many Serbs where killed in Srebrenica and nearby villages such as Kravica. People who did that such as Naser Oric walk free in Bosnia and are considered heroes and you will never hear that genocide was committed against Serbs. It is a highly dysfunctional state that still carries war memories and it is going to collapse the same way as Yugoslavia.
@@lukaignjatovic3061 The serb institute of war victims in Bosnia, says that in the war from 1991-1995 in Region of Podrinje ( Srebrenica and 6 other municipality) the total amount of death serbs were 2385 , from which 2102 were soldier killed on battlefield. Every death is one to much, but you cant compare those 2385 which mostly died on battlefield in period from 1991-1995 to those 8000 killed in a few day in June 1995 .
You and such like you are welcome to try to bring Bosnia to collapse, 1991 we were in worse position and we didnt run away from our duty to protect Bosnia, i doubt we will now.
@@vlasenica18
Look man equation is simple. If another war comes you will be the biggest victim again whether you run or not. Bosnia simply doesn't have enough man power or military strength to defend itself. Serbs do not wish for that war to happen but will protect what belongs to them.
I have few questions for you.
Having in mind that after 25 years Bosnia has achieved nothing and that no agreement can't be reached due to conflicting interests of 3 constitutive ethnicities, how do you see future of Bosnia and are you against peaceful split up?
Some people are comparing the situations of "Kosovo" and Republika Srpska in their fights for independence. I would love to get your opinion on that.
The old morals vs identity vs geography dilemma. Kosovo has well defined natural borders because it was a natural lake in the past and populations are mostly apart. Albanians and Serbs speak different languages and are of different faiths. Serbs in Bosnia are not well defined geographically, do speak a similar language with Bosnians and are of different faiths. Increased religion plays a big role in identity and war just makes separation worse. So if South Slavs want to mend their ties they ought to start preaching religious tolerance and not expansionism. Vucic just keeps stocking up on arms and picking hairs. Very wrong approach towards peace. So Bosnia is a multinational state where resentment still runs deep. New generations may be more tolerant or they may not depending on how they develop identity. A prolonged controlled conflict is what will happen. Independence will just leave Republika Srpska landlocked and getting recognition from other countries is a pain.
I am Bosnian Croat and I agree with almost everything said in this video, but I think that you forgot to mention case “Komsic” and upcoming Croatian boycott of elections.
2nd (ur my favorite CZcams btw)
Great stuff! Thanks so much! :-) Have a great weekend.
@@JamesKerLindsay u too
Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a country. It is international protectorate. The one time "international community" leave the three national ethnic group alone, Bosnia will be divided.
And every group should go with their own people, in their own country instead of being bullied to live with someone you don't want to live with.
Thanks to Your great videos, James, and some other people's work, I have finally decided what NOT to do with my life, which is a solid progress, I would say.:)
Bosnia-Herzegovina is a shining example of a divided and conquered country by imperialism. The EU viceroy's function is to maintain that division and subjugation whilst keeping the nationalist antagonism from the three sides in place. Stability is the one thing that never flourishes from a NATO/UN/EU-brokered "peace deal."
Thanks. Interesting perspective. So, how would you propose fixing the situation?
@@JamesKerLindsay Nothing short of revolution from below will fix the situation. This is exactly what the EU and the Bosnian kleptocrats from the three sides don't want. Unfortunately there is no party or movement anywhere in the Balkans with a revolutionary program to dismantle these artificial sectarian barriers.
@@BolshevikCarpetbagger1917 Let the revolution begin,comrade. I'll be waiting
It's a little bit odd to see the change in tone of the channel, which is usually quite pro-separatism and independence, become more pro-union in this case.
If they want to be free they should be free and all should suport them it makes no sense for them to be part of a federation that they hate.
It is never as simple as that. If everyone got what they want, the world would be in chaos.
In my opinion, the question that should be asked is if it would be beneficial for both entities to let go, which might be the case in this instance.
We hate it because of same reasons in 1991-it only represents Muslims,not Croats and Serbs,now after Daytown agreement its forced to represente all 3,but still in even today Bosniaks are trying to force Serbs and Croats into making us one(meaning we should call ourselves Bosnians even tho we arent that)
@@happynilo1731Ok Good all of you Croats have your croatian passports and visas go live in your country.. And Serbs have their own visas and passports they should leave too.. Bosnian people want 1 president to represent the entire country. No entities and other bullshit.. Croats and Serbs are more then welcomed to live here but. 2 entites and 3 presidents are a bad thing and they are the ones that are causing corruption.. They need to be removed.. Dayton je nadmetnut od strane SAD....
@@Justice-qw7sj Dayton dragi moj Bosnjo je napravljen da vam spasi bulju.Niko ne zeli da bude u zemlji sa vama,al to ne znaci da dajemo nasu zemlju na izvolte.Republika Srpska je odavno trebala da se spoji sa Srbijom,al vas spasili Ameri.A Herceg-Bosna da se prizna kao entitet
@@happynilo1731 Mi smo uspjeli istjerati sve Srbe pred kraj samog rata. Nato se umjesao i rekao je da moramo stat i on nas je zaustavio.. Zato postoji RS.. Da se nije evropa ni amerika mjesala nebi bilo RS..Sto se tice Hrvatske da se nije na miran put sve zavrsilo mi bi vas davni dana istjerali.. Isto kako ste sa Olujom istjerali Srbe.. A sto se tice Hrvatske nebi vi bili sposobni da istjerate sami Srbe bez nase pomoci.. Koliko je samo bosnjaka muslimana otislo kao volonteri za Hrvatsku kad je bila borba za knin i kupres..
War is a great risk for both sides, I don't think it will happen, both sides could lose big cities, minerals, lives
It will happen 100% USA says they will defend integrity of BiH they said the same for Yugoslavia.
Going to enjoy this... As in the video lol...
Yeah, glad you clarified that! :-) It’s a worrying situation, but I’m not yet ready to call it for return to conflict. As I said, it feels like slow, painful decline as the country goes from one crisis to another. The problem is that tensions can eventually fray. It’s the hotheads that worry me.
@@JamesKerLindsay Just left the comment there and then suddenly realised that could be misinterpreted. 😅 Good job I realised.
Also at the very end of the video you missed out the last word. Other than that, another very well made informative video. I don't really know much about the Balkans let alone Bosnia, so I enjoy your take on the situation.
HEY you:
do you know that Croatia and Slovenia unilaterally declared independence from Yugoslavia Jun 1991
Proclaimed that Yugoslav army is forein army on their land
Formed paramilitary groups and attcked Yugoslav army bases
This is the truth how War started in Yugoslavia on Jun 1991
Thanks. I mentioned this specifically. I have also covered it in other videos, such as my one on Operation Storm and Croatia and the one I did on Slovenia and the 'Erased'.
This is a very complicated situation. There will always be a certain level of tension and the only way to deescalate would be a renegotiation of the Dayton agreement or giving higher autonomy to the Serbs. I can't see a quick or easy ending to this situation but I hope violence won't prevail
giving them even more autonomy would only put a temporary band aid and would make the next outbreak worse. Honestly Serbs within Bosnia just just accept being a part of a federation and stop with the whole fantasy of unification with mother Serbia lol
@@mirandapillsbury7885 Why should they? Everyone other people in the region got independence when they wanted.
@@FOLIPE They already have a Serbian state named SERBIA. Bosnia is meant to be a multi ethnic nation where three ppl and three faiths intermingle. Of course this causes chaos but the Serbs inside are the ones usually starting the chaos.
Thanks so much for the comment Marco. I am torn. I think that there has to be a middle ground. Talk of secession is extremely destabilising. But I also really do despair when I hear Bosniaks talking about the need to abolish Republika Srpska. Bosnia won't work until Bosniaks and Bosnian Serbs come to accept Bosnia for what it is: a single sovereign state with RS as a highly autonomous and devolved component entity. (The Federation is trickier. I can see Bosnian Croat arguments for the creation of a third entity, but I also understand how this could be problematic and mean that the Croats were hugely over-represented.) But this takes moderate political leaders who don't fall for the temptation of falling back on blaming the central state or RS for all the country's political problems. In addition, more needs to be done to balance centralisation and decentralisation. I accept that certain functions would be fun better by central government, but others are better run at the level of the entities, or a municipal level. But if powers are centralised, the administration of those powers could easily be decentralised. Just because a competence is managed by the national government in Sarajevo, there's absolutely no reason why the ministry concerned isn't based in Mostar or Banja Luka.
@@JamesKerLindsay Yea it's unfortunate how neither party really seems interested in improving the country.
Couldn't Russia still access Bosnia via travelling through the Bosporus which should remain open for military, international waters, a tiny strip of Bosnian waters, and then land at the portlet of Neum and capture it as a base? Or does Croatian waters cut it off?
Thanks. Good thinking! But there's no way to do it without passing through Croatian waters.
@@JamesKerLindsay How can a country with an access to the sea have not the access to the international waters?
Isn't that against the international law?
@@bravo4741 No. There is no such right. But ships do have a right of innocent passage through the territorial waters of other states.
@@JamesKerLindsaySlovenia was given corridor 2,5 km wide to acces the international waters after suing Croatia at the court of Hamburg.
Croatia does not want to recognize the court in Hamburg anymore cuz of that.
Bosnia could not sue Croatia, because Milorad Dodik vetoed that decision.
@@bravo4741 Thanks. I know the Bay of Piran Case. Slovenia’s coastline is very different from this situation. It seems hard to see how any court would award Bosnia a right to territorial water in what would clearly be Croatian waters. Again, the argument is that they are allowed right of free passage.
Ok