EUROVISION 2024 ODDS Update - New leader, New Qualifiers!
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- čas přidán 3. 05. 2024
- How have the odds changed after the first and second rehearsals? We have a new leader in Baby Lasagna and some more changes. We also have a look at the semi-final qualifying chances for Eurovision 2024
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#eurovision #eurovision2024 #esc - Zábava
It's always nice when the data backs up your thoughts lol I currently think there are 6 potential (and well deserving) winners for this year and they happen to be the top 6 in the odds 😄 But I'm personally rooting for Croatia. I absolutely adore this song😸
Me too. 🤗🐾🐾🐾🤗
Croatia ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
A billion points from sweden 🇸🇪
Yay for Croatia, but still find the lack of appreciation for Slovenia aggravating!
Hello, i must i did watch eurovision every year since i was i child, but this year (because of Baby L) i watch more (i am not croatian). I must say of all eurovision channels you are the best and the most systematic. Thank you for your great words for croat song, he is the winner this year.
Thank you
Truly Croatia has best song and it deserves the win!
Croatia, go and make us proud!! 🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷
Croatia ❤❤❤❤❤Baby Lasagna
This is truly open. Switzerland Italy Croatia and maybe even Ukraine have a genuine chance
Ukraine is in front of Italy
@@hellothere9763 oddswise they are very tight together - but I just don't feel Ukraine have a pathway to winning
@@russell10 I dunno, their 30 sec clip is impressive honestly, top3 staging IMO. If people would feel bored of party songs they will first go for that song imo
@@hellothere9763 yep staging is good (except they need to not show the bottom of the ramp !). The song is just not strong enough for me. It didn’t achieve top 3 in any of the pre show polls / ESC scoreboard / Eurovision world winner poll etc. so I can’t have it winning
Hosting our 38th Eurovision party this Saturday 🎉🎉🎉…Croatia…fabulous Rammstein vibes 😊😊😊😊😊loving it 😊😊
Yes, how it is nice to see again, Croatia 🇭🇷 on No1. Go Baby.🥇🥇🥇😏. I agree with you, really don't understand the people who is betting on Ireland. 🇮🇪. I like the song and their uniqueness, but there is absolutely no chance that Bambie can win, in the jury voting she is gonna be probably in the bottom 5. And it's a crime that Portugal🇵🇹 is second to last. Come on Europe. I know that Iolanda won't win, but it is still very sad to see.
Go Baby Lasagna! 😻❤😻
I think Croatia will win. However it is really open. Ukraine's staging looks amazing as usual. 4 potential for me:
1. Croatia.
2. Switzerland.
3. Ukraine.
4. Italy.
One note: Kaarija was cursed with the fact that Loreen was in it last year.
hope croatia get it the band really deserves it 👏 🙏
The Netherlands are still hiding their staging. My idea: he will be using AR, close up (because he isnt moving) and only with the dance we will see the whole stage. It will be a rollercoaster: mark my words! Like Joost says: trust the process!
AR cannot make this a good song. So it doesn't really matter what the staging will look like.
@@hectorhectorovich5197 many people like this song so it does matter
@@hectorhectorovich5197the song is great soooo Europapa for the win
Yesssss
I'm most surprised by the position of Portugal in the odds. I think it deserves top 10.🤍
At least Top 5 . One of the best together with Israël and Serbia. Israël is my winner of Eurovision 2024
Thanks from Portugal 🇵🇹 🇵🇹 🇵🇹 ❤❤
A lot of people are loving Portugal’s staging, and I too love it! My favourites right now are Ukraine, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, staging + performance wise! 🤩👏🔥
I'd also be very happy if Croatia actually wins 😊the song is risky, authentic, with a good massage, written by the artist himself, and not only his story is amazing as you said, but also Croatia's, they went from sending very safe and bland pop songs that failed to qualify because it seemed that they just participated for the sake of it, to in the last to years send epic and original entries that absolutely stand out. However I also love Italy, Switzerland and Ukraine so this year I probably will like the winner.
As for the qualifiers, I find Luxembourg, Poland and Cyprus overrated, but honestly that's because I generally much prefer different songs in native language like Slovenia, Portugal and Azerbaijan rather that standard pop songs. I find the second semifinal weaker bit I'm happy for Georgia, it's been many years for them to get to the final. I think Albania also has a chance if they get the performance right, the fans usually overlook them and they have Greece, Switzerland, Italy and Austria in only televote semifanal.
I hope Belgium will do better! ❤ I love these odds videos ❤
Croatia ❤, Phenomenal ❤. PERFEKT ❤ ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
🤗🐈🐾🐾😘😘
CROATIA ❤THE BEST ❤
The winner is between Switzerland, Italy, Croatia or France. I will come back here in a week to give myself a high five coz I am right
@CROATIAPOWEEER i am not even gey but i think this is a really bad comment
@CROATIAPOWEEERYou are a terrible person.
@@susanafonseca5179 i don't think so
EuroPapa comeback loading ........
🇪🇺 🕺 🇳🇱 ⚡️
@@susanafonseca5179 I don't think Greece will accumulate enough points from the Jurys or the televote to be in the top 3, but that's just my opinion.
Everyone grumbles about Nemo's outfit, but when Käärijä appeared with his avant-garde outfit and strange hairstyle, nobody minded. Nemo has always worn flashy pink clothes, so it's nothing new (see preparties, swiss tv appearance etc).. and their song is amazing and sung beautifully while balancing on a rotating platform.
Agreed! This is Nemo’s song about self acceptance. Hoping viewers will accept Nemo (just as they did Kaarija) for the kind, eclectic and musically talented human being that they are.
I will quote Michael Kors on this: "Taste is something that you just can’t learn". I appreciate what Nemo is going for, but in my eyes I just see a pink chicken. He reminds me so much of Blanche Deveraux pertforming Henny Penny but in a pink version of the outfit she wore. His vocals are strong but his staging clashes with what he's trying to say.
Ireland ❤️🇮🇪
Would you consider making a survey/poll about betting?
I've been a huge Eurovision fan since 2007 and I've never placed a bet.
While I know of some casuals that have done so.
I think there will be a big shock is the second semi final, i have the feeling that at least one of the last three in the odds (Malta, czechia and San Marino)will qualify over Austria and Estonia, also i am not totally convinced in the qualification of my own country Belgium and maybe surprisingly Greece.
You are right for the stars having to align for Luktelk to win but it warms my heart that so many people like it. I'm really hoping for a good result for France, Slimane deserves it. I love Nemo and Baby Lasagna. We need Portugal and Slovenia in the final and hopelly Dons as well.
❤ireland
I really don't understand why Belgium isn't top 5. Great dark, mysterious song leading up to a climax. Gets stuck in your head. And he's easy on the eyes. Probably because, as opposed to Balkan or ex-Yugoslavian countries for example, only the Netherlands is a certainty to vote on it. Great video with solid arguments!
Portugal on the rise since rehearsals 🥰🇵🇹
After the reharsal my qualify's (writes in Swedish)
Semi 1:
Cypern
Ukraina
Kroatien
Azerbajdzjan
Luxemburg
(and OK for Litauen, Polen & Finland)
Semi 2:
Schweiz
Tjeckien
Österrike
Armenien
Lettland
Belgien
Estland
Israel
Nederländerna
I like of course Kroatien (winner), Ukraina, Schweiz, Nederländerna. But i also really like the songs and rehearsal of Tjeckien, Österrike, Armenien, Lettland, Cypern and Azerbajdzjan 😊
EuroPapa comeback loading ........
🇪🇺 🕺 🇳🇱 ⚡️
The juries will be impressed with the staging for Ireland 🇮🇪 . Well done Bambie and Ireland 🇮🇪
IRELAND AND GEROGIA AND GREECE WELCOME BACK TO THE FINAL
The Swiss video clip from the second rehearsal was shorter than the other ones, only about 20s. I think they kept it a little bit underwhelming on purpose, which translates into those dropping odds.
i reallyy hope slovenia qualifies
In some European countries you can't bet on Eurovision (i.e its not legal to do so in France?). So in countries like Ireland and Uk (where it is permitted) there will be more money backing their home-grown acts. This can skew the odds a bit, and they appear to rank higher in these tables.
Thank you for your thoroughness and relieable comments!
I have been thinking about why Joost Klein seems to loose some support. I think that he and his production team are doing some risky moves when it comes to using his tragical loss of parents. The risky factor is indéed connected to the word 'use'. I get an uncomfortable gutfeeling of being held hostage: How can I reject somthing that sad and tragic? In other situations this could have been interpreted as 'emotional blackmailing'.
Maybe this is an exaggeration, but it is certainly a mecanism to keep an eye on.🤔
I think that the reason why Croatia is first again is because the bookmakers were a bit disappointed with the staging of the Netherlands. Since it's a tight race between the Netherlands and Croatia in terms of who will win the televote, they believe that the staging will negatively impact the Netherlands leading them to receive fewer televotes than Croatia. These more televotes is exactly what Croatia needs to eventually win which is why they are first now.
There has been a few bots made recently to make Croatia Look Bad. Please ignore them. They are saying some very bad stuff about other songs and are posing as a person from Croatia which is not true. So please just ignore them and report them. And remember that those bots are not from Croatia..
I hate how low Malta is in the odds, I think it will just go through to the final and is alot better than some of the songs this year
I think Belgium will be a shock NQ, the only good part of the song is at the very end and his vocals have decreased rather then improved which is a shame
I love Malta, it’s in my personal top 10. But 5 of my top 10 are expected not to qualify hahaha!
I think it's a pure copy of slomo or whatever that song was called (spain in 2022)
It's Portugal that took Australia's spot as pre rehearsals Portugal were 11th/12th with Slovenia in the odds and Australia were 10th with about a 9% difference!
So many of my personal top 10 probably won’t qualify! 🤷♂️😂 Azerbaijan, Australia, Serbia, Czechia and Malta. Oh well, my overall favourite Italy has an okay chance to win hopefully! 🤞
Grazieeeeeeee!!! Saluti dall' Italia❣Votate Angelina!!!!!!
Crown The Witch 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 I
I - I - I am sure they qualify!
Portugal 🇵🇹 will slay 🎉🎉🎉 vote quality!
Cyprus will definately qualify! 80% is about right
R a m o n d a 💗 will qualify. Ende.
@@user-mq7so1px2u Kakva duhovitost, kakav nivo, pa moramo te promovirat negde da svet sazna za tebe
Hei, I have a tip on how to read the odds: instead of looking at the winning chance which doesn’t make the most sense mathematically, try looking at the actual odds. An odds 3 translates to the event happening once in three times. So you can envision the situation a bit clearer: Would Croatia win the competition once if it was to be played 3 times? Yes, no.
It makes it way easier for me at least to visualise what those numbers actually mean instead of using the winning chance as a reference point. Hope this helps!!
oprostite ali ove godine rim tim tagi win🎉
Nutsa on fire❤❤❤❤
Prayer circle so Croatia performs in the second half and doesn’t get the stupid producers choice
12 points to the Netherlands!❤
Nemo's anxiety attacks!!!
😂😢 please realy them let tem go to psycologiyst second, third place, Ukraine, we hug U when whose hardest, please help us now ❤💖🫶🤝🏻🙏
😂
Bald heißt es nicht Findet Nemo,sondern Good Bey Nemo😂
The winner is very open this year! I think it’s going to be very very close. I still believe Netherlands will win the televote, the issue is who’s gonna be second and third. On the other side Ukraine will do great on the juries, so if they’re gonna be in the top three of televote, the chances are with them.
So excited for the winner this year 🎉
I thought it was a music contest, not a staging and lighting show
I'm starting to believe that Italy can do it if the staging comes together - but i love the concept of the staging and it can be impactful. I also expect to see what Joost Klein have in store - because i don't think the two of them hav given away their best.
Croatia❤
People , vote for music , and not choise how stage is = listen and choise the music , real music , no circus
I really hope Croatia could get their win, but at the same time, the staging was bit "meh" and the camera work was bit messy/shaky and didn't really give Eurovision winner vibes, so i hope they make it better and more focused during later rehearsals, or it would feel bit odd if it wins. Ukraine and Switzerland has the best stagings clips, but 30secs is not really enought to tell what the performance looks in full. Also i feel like the stage feels kind of empty in long distance camera shots and close-up shots have been looking better in that stage.
I think the croatia perfomance changed it all.
I expect Luxembourg will get good support from Belguim, France and Portugal
Croatia ❤
I’m sad that people have lost faith in Nemo… 😢
Je pense que beaucoup le craigne donc il le démolisse .
Même si il aurait pas la première place , Némo restera toujours un des meilleurs de l'eurovision 2024 . Et surtout il aura fait trembler beaucoup de monde.
Petite Suisse que nous sommes , Némo est un artiste et chanteur exceptionnel.
Il aura le mérite d'avoir bousculer ces adversaires.
@@user-fu1zu4mp1i D’accord 💙
Ukraine 🤗
It is true with ucranie, I had goosebumps with the snippet of the video, it was so beautiful! And sadly Nemo, I don’t like the outfit😢, and it doesn’t seem so spectacular , Netherlands is also a bit boring what we get to see. I hope when we see it complete it will be great as well, but let’s see.
It is possibile for Ukraine to win being so low in the Eurovision Poll? The poll always predicted the winner
Marko goooo❤❤❤❤❤
The Netherlands ❤
I just disagree with something that you said, i think actually people are really surprised with portugal's staging on second rehearsal, that's why portugal increased on odds for semi final. Also in youtube and reddit if you take a look, the main favorites of semi final 1 second rehearsals from what i saw in 90% of the comments were irland, ukraine and portugal, maybe also croatia. So it's just a quick note. And because of that i dont understand why portugal dropped in winning odds while increased in qualifying odds..
Estonia! :'(
If we won't qualify, the only hope I have is that we won't get back to this path of sending those anonymous English (pop)songs again like we have done for many years (with Hope in 2022 as an exception for me personally because it still had some identity and character as a song).
IRLANDA!! IRELAND
#crownthewitch
Croatia winner ❤❤❤😊
No 🙌
@@The0Rusyes 😂
I'm really rooting for Croatia to win. It's been my #1 since Dora 🥳
Ukraine will win :)
@@ldg9484 I doubt it
I think Ireland actually has a chance of being top 3 in the semi now
None of us have seen Greece's performance and I do believe that odds are misleading the audience. These scenarios bring me memories of Malta 2021 when the odds were quite high, but Malta hadn't got any actual potential for winning the contest. How is it possible for you to say that Greece has no winning performance by a snippet of 30 seconds when it's also the lowest tempo part of the song? Even Nemo was impressed by Marina's staging while he was waiting for taking the stage and performing his song. It's hilarious for me when I recall your previous videos. You were mentioning Greece as a potential winner according to the actual song as we hadn't seen any staging hint from her. Now, even if we did have a hint of Marina's staging, you are not giving her the needed appretiation that you used to give to her prior to the rehearsals. Let's be honest, there is no winning song at the moment. People and youtubers are overreacting about Croatia and Switzerland, however none of them is good enough or has the package for winning the contest. Croatia lacks into staging and vocals, Switzerland lacks into costumes and staging as well. None of them bring something new to the contest. From the other hand, if we want to make development steps for this contest, it's quite fair to give to Marina the chance to prove us that we were wrong with her, because we've judged her whole Eurovision journey from a snippet of 30 seconds. Marina is bringing what Loreen brought in 2012, a unique era where World Music is not just a sub music category, but it can actually be the main part of the music industry. Greece's entry is not the sleek western pop music which we have had enough for more than 15 years, Greece's entry is the meta-comment of this parameter. The great music collage of her song is a good indicator of what entries should be looked like nowadays. If this entry was applied by another country, I believe the reactions would be different. But odds convert the succession of CHA CHA CHA into Rim Tim Dagi Tim's betting succession and the gender awareness that Nemo brings (while Ireland shares the same gender identity, but not such a conversation about it) into something unique which in my opinion is not. I do believe there will be a lot of flops this year. The only countries I can see as winners are Greece for the development of this contest which implies discourses of urbanism, world music and accessability by being relevant with your own culture, and France for the cliche, but aesthetic song which applies to everyone's introversion.
This year I find the odds strange gives me Eurovision 2011 vibes when they completely got everything wrong nearly
Semi Final 1 I know lot of people found Australia rehearsal underwhelming but I think it will make it instead of either Poland Cyprus or Serbia and I would still not rule out Slovenia and Azerbaijan because its impossible running order 1 to 7 to qualify we never had that before and I know it won't happen 1 or 2 definitely won't make it that's why I think Cyprus and maybe Poland or Serbia NQ
Semi Final 2 I agree with you San Marino should be way higher Its more memorable then Denmark Albania and Latvia and I think it can take either Estonia or Austria and maybe Georgia or even Belgium place to qualify and I still would not rule out Malta I am not really a big fan of the song I said this many times but she is a very good performer and I think it can take Austria place I'm not saying it will happen but I won't be surprised it happens
Australia won't make it to the finals. I believe Estonia won't make it to the finals. Instead I see Albania qualifing.
@@painpapadopoulos8120 Maybe they won't make it but I still think they will but Estonia maybe but since its 100 percent televote I think it will make it Albania I don't think it will qualify they are in 2nd running order and It will be tough to qualify from that plus they should have kept the song in Albanian and I find this English version song very weak and forgettable who knows maybe they will we never know
Italy Angelina Mango winner ❤
🐯🇭🇷
Oh dear, 3 countries i want to do well coz theyre minnows, malta, san marino and iceland, all in bottom 6!!! Diesnt bode well!!!!
45% chance to qualify for Slovenia feels so painful to me, I really don't understand who is actually betting and creating these odds. At least some more people realized Norway is going to blow away many people ! Anyways odds make me angry almost so maybe I should stop watching these videos. There is only one steady force in the odds since the beginning and that's Italy, so I would bet on that if I had too much money ;-)
45% is still good. She definitely still has a chance to qualify.
I have 200 euros bet on Portugal non qualification
17:25 Latvia 2002, anyone? Wasn't supposed to compete either and only got in because another country (Portugal) withdrew. The rest is history... This is the original fairytale story of Eurovision.
And, unfortunately, it’s one of the most undeserving winners in the last 25 years. Dreadful song.
Maybe winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2024 will not be winner of televote or juryvote...
ukraine🥹❤️
Cyprus, Serbia, Slovenia, Australia and Portugal all should have around 60% because they're fighting for the last 3 Spots for the final.
Ukraine 👌 really good
In terms of what Eurovision should be, my winners are: Portugal, Italy, or Greece.
Crotia hope will take trophy at that point Baby Lasagna very well deserve to win and Italy unfurtunatly lost the chance because as just you mentioned she lost her naturalty with busy careography. Ucraine’s song so relegious which makes me dislike this aproaches. And Azeribejian I think lost the chance even though they had charisma and traditional part and diasphora advantage, but now they have very bad staging because probably too much arrogancy comes from main singer.
Netherlands unfortunately fucked up the staging again it’s unbelievable how this happens every year
J'aime absolument pas la chanson
Baby Lasagna
the cut screen will feature croatia and ukraine 🔮🔮
Hardly, depends who wins with the jurys and that will probably be Switzerland
🤣😂You mean.!? 🤔.. Eurovision charts released information on which country wrote the song lyrics themselves and which had helpers. First surprise, helper...!?? 🤔🤭Can the text be written by more than one person... If that's the case, it's immediately zero points for me, and now the answer goes. You think that the jury will appreciate more a song that has 6 helpers in writing the lyrics. Croatia is the only country where the artist recorded his song himself✍️.👌👏🌹 And the rest... Engagement, music, video... Everything.👏👌🎯 With their own money. 🎯💯And secondly, all countries had 3-9 helpers. Hello!!!😲🙈 I fainted from that information. That information is a disaster for me. Netherlands and Belgium 6 or 7 helpers✍️✍️✍️🤔. I think at least some jury will take that into account. And I think they will. Devastating data for Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden... Italy 3, Greece even 9 and Cyprus 9 helpers.😲🙈 Now everyone can go lizard hunting. Devastating data for all of them.😯🤔🤔🤔
I just want Latvia in the final soooo bad. I'll vote for them, I'll make everything in my power to see Latvia back.
Portugal will be top3.
I also agree with you on Cyprus - 81% qualification chance is way too high and I DON'T think it will qualify - I think Australia, Azerbaijan or Slovenia will do instead.
❤️🇭🇷❤️👉🔥🎼🔥👍🌺🙋♀️
would be weird for croatia to win with everyone in the top 10 having the same level song or better and better staging.
1st semi:
I think Azerbaijan is qualifying instead of Cyprus.
And then Moldova might be challenging to steal the spot from either Poland or Portugal.
2nd semi:
This is quite more open.
I think Israel, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway and Armenia are safe.
Then Greece and Georgia are almost safe.
Then Latvia is an almost certain NQ.
And everyone else is fighting for the 3 remaining spots in the Final.
Final:
I still think France will win.
And its only true competition is Ukraine.
The only surprise could be Israel, if the juries crazily decide to openly support it.
I think only Ukraine has the potential to win over Croatia, but really hope it will not 😌Switzerland, Italy and Netherlands just dont have it.
Ireland dark horse winner 🇮🇪
Hey fellow German here. xD I saw your latest videos and it seems as if you severely don't realize the huge draw with these so called dance-breaks / girl bop / whatever name songs. Maybe you're gay which might explain 😂. But you need to remember the most basic advertising rule of sex sells. Take Cyprus, personally I thought the song was fine to mediocre and needed a standout staging - which apparently isn't happening. But even that lazyness will most definitely not cost them their qualifier spot - bc ppl are gonna vote for Silia alone.
Which is weird because it's usually the gay eurovision fans that are hyped about those "girl bops"...
That name is a crime in itself as those usually are *women* singing them, unless you're talking about Cyprus, which is selling us a minor & i completely hate it.
@@LeafHuntressExactly. It is usually the gay community who loves girl bops and dance-breaks.
Odds
Not real
It is possibile for Ukraine to win being so low in the Eurovision Poll? The poll always predicted the winner