What's the Real Impact of Brexit?
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- čas přidán 3. 03. 2024
- Join Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at the IEA, as he provides a comprehensive analysis of Brexit's impact on UK trade and the broader global economic landscape. In this discussion, Jessop sheds light on the often overlooked significance of imports in trade discussions, emphasising their crucial role in driving consumer choice and market competition. He challenges conventional wisdom by suggesting that the benefits of free trade are more pronounced through increased imports rather than exports alone.
Delving deeper, Jessop navigates through the complexities of post-Brexit trade dynamics, examining the potential implications of new trade agreements and the looming political challenges ahead. By offering nuanced insights and empirical evidence, he underscores the need for a holistic perspective on trade policy that considers both producers and consumers' interests.
Gain valuable insights into the evolving nature of UK trade relationships and the global economic landscape, guided by Julian Jessop's expertise and thoughtful analysis. Subscribe now for access to more insightful discussions and expert commentary from the IEA.
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EU don't remember UK .But UK is talking about Brexit in 2024!!
You remembered.
@@colinsmith1288 Im not EU member
If the IEA wish to be taken seriously then they need to disclose who funds them. In the meantime nobody's buying their BS.
But we are eating your Brexzhit BS?
You should rename yourselves into the Institute of Economic Misrepresentation.
Lol these idiots spent too much time as children building airfix models. Exports make you profit… imports don’t
where did you study economics to degree level?
@@tony_w839 Well, believe it or not, but I do have a master degree in economics.
Who funds this organisation?
Secret very rich people who want to control you with anonymity whilst ensuring you stay poor.
"voluntary donations from individuals, companies and foundations who want to support its work, plus income from book sales and conferences", and says that it is "independent of any political party or group".
@@teddyboysdontknit810 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You don’t need to know 😂
they might tell you, but then its either an NDA or Death
Both import and export matter.. without export you have no import.
Exactly; two sides of the same coin. What nonsense to pretend otherwise.
where did you study economics to degree level?
Not a requirement to make that assessment. O level maths probably sufficient.
When I was in UK. I saw empty boarded up streets under a constant grey sky, litter everywhere.
Homeless people sleeping in doorways. A women with cat whiskers makeup casually walking into Tesco with her pajamas. Opioid addicts out of their mind and women so drunk they urinated on the streets.
It's a sad declined country.
Tufton street claptrap
I go to France often and take English language children's books with me for a friend. Apparently she can't get them in France anymore. Just too expensive. Think of the loss there. And that is just one small example. Also, who would have thought that in 2024 I have to go to France to bring back vegetables and other goods to the UK that we can't get here anymore. At least not fresh. This country is starting to look more and more like the old German Democratic Republic. A country the UK was compared to before it joined the EU! Crazy
« Brexit vote explained: low skills, lack of opportunities and poverty… Age, income and education matter, though it is educational inequality that was the strongest driver. » (jrf org uk political mindsets)
Among those with no qualifications, 65 percent voted to Leave, and 35 percent to Remain. IEA experts:😁
« A new study by the University of Leicester’s mathematics department, argues that a 3 per cent increase in the voting public accessing higher education could have reversed the Brexit result. "Higher education is found to be the predominant factor dividing the nation, in particular in England and Wales, between remain and leave.” » IEA experts: 😁
"the benefits of free trade are more pronounced through increased imports rather than exports alone."
Basics of Trade: "The balance of trade is the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods. A positive balance of trade, also known as a trade surplus, occurs when a country exports more goods than it imports. This means that the country is earning more from its exports than it is spending on its imports, and *it is generally seen as a sign of economic strength.*
On the other hand, a negative balance of trade, also known as a trade deficit, occurs when a country imports more goods than it exports. This means that the country is spending more on imports than it is earning from exports, and *it can be a cause for concern* if it persists over a long period of time." IEA 'experts':😯😢
I think you need to recheck your numbers. Financial Times assessment of ONS data released last week shows that UK trade (imports and exports) have seen a massive decline in the last 5 years and that these are directly attributable to Brexit. Meanwhile other G7 countries have all experienced increased trade in the last 5 years. I know who I trust when it comes to providing a reliable understanding of this country's economic position, and it's not the IEA.
It's great to hear that a chronically negative balance of payments is a goal to strive for. 😀
Asia will growth more but it’s more likely that this countries will prefer a deal with the European Union instead of the UK because of the attraction of the single market.
We should talk more about imports? America, China, Post-war Germany, Post-War Japan appear to have substantially grown their economies on exports.
Imports of goods essential to one's welfare is most important of course.
Imports of goods not essential is irrelevant to average Joe Public.
The problem that could arise with Brexit is the imports of essential goods and no doubt these essential goods will also be in demand by the rest of the World.
So Brexit Britain will have to compete for essential goods like food and energy.
This is not good if the UK Pound starts to fall as it has been doing so for decades.
We are seeing inflation hitting us, the result of several factors including the financial crisis of 2007/8, the Covid crisis and of course the war in Ukraine.
We are seeing the massive import of goods that are not essential and they are quite cheap to Joe Public.The UK is flooded with cheap goods from the far east.
With the exponential rise in demand for essential goods, Brexit Britain will stand alone relying totally on the USA as it did during both WWs and this is an extremely worrying situation.
The USA is now considering cutting the help given to Ukraine which is even more worrying as the USA cuts aid and support.
Indeed with the present climate in the USA it may even reduce essential exports to Europe and the UK.
If the UK was still in the EU, it would be more secure as regards essential goods and high tech goods, but Brexit was a really bad idea because firstly, there was no need for it, as we could always have left the EU should it be seen to be failing....but it wasn't and the option of leaving under these conditions are gone forever.
Brexit was sold to the people with lies and deceit.
Brexit was the greatest con inflicted on a nation since Germany 1933, which has left the UK in a very vulnerable state and a very precarious future..
With China, India etc rising and demanding more and more essential goods as well as the EU the same, especially with the war in Ukraine which is unknown as to the outcome and the USA retreating into itself. will the UK advance or decline.?
Time will tell, but the most significant factors will be inflation of essential goods and the value of Sterling.
Our housing is in a very poor state as well as rents and costs are increasing at an alarming rate.
It leaves Housing, food and energy dependant on our governments and recent history shows that they are not doing very well....The very same government that gave us Brexit.!
Sad times😮
This argument is erroneous.
First off, you shouldn't think of export as exporting goods and services. You should think of it as exporting excess production capacity; the sort of extra capacity the nation has no serious demand. You then exchange those excess capacity for goods and services you want but have no means or no efficient means of production.
Take your country as an example, it has a solid history of exporting expensive cars and industrial machinery. But the UK is also ill suited for producing quality wine, yet the citizens of UK love good wines. You then export the excess production capacity in luxury cars to Spain and import luxurious and well priced wines from them. It is a win win.
By exiting the EU you have made both exporting and importing more troublesome for both sides. Without an easy way to exchange your excess production capacity for goods/services you demand, you will have to curb your production; hence we see a sharper fall in the UK's GDP when compared to countries in the EU.
As a consequence of Brexit, now you have less production/less wealth and more expensive imports.
Supply and demand is macroeconomics 101 stuff, it is amusing to see how the IEA is incapable of grasping such an elementary concept.
Not so sure wether they cannot grasp it.
Give their background it seems to me more about trying to gaslight the gullible public on behalf of anonymous paymasters.
Yes but your ignoring the biggest benefit to brexit, the rich get to avoid paying taxes they would have been made to had we remained members.
TELL US WHO FUNDS YOU.
The UK exports mainly setvices and is a net importer of good (food, medication, items on the shop shelves), it is to expensive to manufacture, produce, distribute and sell goods in the UK.
What a load of nonsense from this guy. Firstly, there is zero evidence that the service industry has benefitted from Brexit. If anything, when you take the music industry and musicians into account it has had a negative effect. You can't lump goods and services together. A country makes its money by selling its goods outside its borders. Brexit erected barriers to trade for British businesses who now as he put it - have to find a work around!! In other words, set-up shop in the EU to the benefit of the EU country they move to. Yes, Brexit will limit choice for British consumers because ultimately EU businesses will not be bothered with the red-tape and have 27 other countries to freely sell to. Just because the UK signs deals with countries around the world - what makes them think that those countries want to buy more from the UK? The ignorance and exceptionalism is breathtaking.
The Pound in 2016 was overpriced? If you look a it in a chart from 2016 it seemed fairly valued.
The idea of relying on imports and not providing protection for indigenous producers makes the assumption that the world is generally stable environmentally and politically as well as being largely at peace. It also ignores the fact that food cannot be grown "on demand", i.e. if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Very disappointing. Exports pay for imports. If you wish to be taken seriously you cannot say things such as "Lamb from Australia and New Zealand could have a lower total carbon footprint than Welsh lamb". You need proof, preferably independently verified, and you also need to consider the overall environmental impact. Almost the whole of Australia has ancient soils low in essential nutrients needed by crops and pasture, and so Australian farmers use vast quantities of fertilizer, much of which relies on the hugely damaging Haber-Bosch process. Meats are generally global commodities, hence if you buy beef from anywhere, you are maintaining its global price, and thereby the destruction of the Amazon rain forest and cattle concentration camps, (euphemistically called "feedlots"). In fact, we should all be cutting our hugely excessive protein intake to the recommended daily allowance. Economists don't seem to see what is happening. The new services industry economy was lauded as it replaced primary industries (e.g. coal mining) and much manufacturing. Now robotics and computer software are replacing services. With a CAD package backended by FEA, CFM, and CEM packages, a single professional engineer can now do the job of an entire team of engineers in 1980. Much the same has been happening in book-keeping and accountancy, and software is even moving into medicine and law. Shop-tellers have been replaced in droves. Indeed, shops and entire chains have closed, replaced by huge multistorey warehouses in which just a handful of employees look after automated pickers and driverless carts. (I visited a 1 acre, 12-storey warehouse run by just three men!) In southern England, a bus route has been equipped with the technology to allow driverless buses; it may not be long before many vehicles are driverless, including aircraft. Drones are already doing much work. In short, service jobs are disappearing. The few people who have sufficient capital to buy automation and replace human workers are getting richer, at the expense of many people who would formerly have been middle class. Of course, as consumers become poorer, an equilibrium will be reached where an impoverished population supports a small, extremely wealthy minority. We are heading back to the Victorian divide. To the IEA, I say: please do something real. When you present graphs for trade in services and in goods, at least let us know the relative sizes of those sectors. Exports pay for imports. No woolly statements about sheep. Yes, a free market is good and aids much, including food security. The EU is the world's biggest free market and it's on the UK's doorstep, yes?! Thank you.
Export is more important, ie, you can utilize economy of scale, ie produce enough for local consumsion with plenty extra for export, earning foreign currencies to import things you cannot produce, or can produce but not as efficiently as others.
Re trade deals, everybody knows the UK is desperate to sign up, so they are more agressive/assertive to put in terms and conditions more favouable to them than to the UK. Well, if you don't like it, let's keep talking !! There's why the UK hasn't been able to sign up many trade deals so far.
After the Truss Kwateng economic disaster the IEA is no longer a credible think tank.
Not an economist so why does my instinct tell me this a load of rubbish? Maybe my instinct is wrong. One of us is!
Who pays for the Tufty Club?
It is totally obvious that putting up trade barriers is bad for trade and no amount of misleading stats can change that fact.
Chap I know runs an Italian deli. Pays £1000 a month for a customs agent.
£1000, Jessop, £1000. That is £1000.
You are a disgrace.
There was me thinking that the important part of trade was what you could sell and forex earnings!
Who funds these clowns?
How did YOU vote Brexit and then I’ll listen to your arguments.
UK became the richest country in the world in the 18th and 19th centuries because of exports. Germany had similar success in the 20th century; yet according to the guy with glasses, imports are more important?😮
Or because UK was looting the riches of the world 🤔
When’s the new GWagon coming out
There is no benefits to imports if you can't pay for them, what we need to talk about is exporting strategic products and know how, to China particularly high energy using industries exporting our carbon usage to meet spurious net zero targets
Talk to farmer ,fishing,and small business, plus steel,
Yeah, who cares about local workers as long as bigwigs get their money.
I assumed that a fancy academic name will at least have some basics right. Someone is putting money down the drain , by funding such crap. Money can be better spent, even for propaganda.
Well...the real impact was that a lot of people finally learned that they are idiots...
Very, very strange. I don't want to debunk every argument but I cannot leve this video without a comment. So I pick his food production argument.
It is dangerous to produce all your food yourself because of a potential famine. This is ridiculous, just because you produce food yourself you don't make imports illegal. In a bad season you can just import at any time. On the other hand, when there is a problem on the global market and trade is not available (maybe other countries restricted them because they want to feed their own citizens first) you can do nothing without a domestic production. Trade is an excellent way to optimise your economy not to replace it. So many more wrong things in this short video...
Having been proven completely wrong on Brexit, this is a nice revision. Or did this damage actually benefit you and your anonymous donors?
It's all about the People, We had freedom of Movement and The Right to Live and work in The EU, They had no right to take that away for Us People Of the UK, Re-Join The EU. Scotland will.
Nonsense
This guy is completely wrong. If you don't have well paid citizens to buy imports, imports shrink. The UK citizenry is suffering from a shrinking economy because of Brexit
Ooofffttyy talk about hard nose economics. Just waiting for the line: homelessness is due to market conditions.
Totally screams of the imbalance in this country; free trade to make the rich richer; damn to the plebs.
All countries that do well produce and export. Only poor are primarly importers, like Africa.
Lots of BS has been told here. Japan, South Korea, China, EU are all large exporters.
4:06 _"suggests there must have been some impact on trade, 'probably' affecting both exports and imports"_ ...what kind of wording is *that??* It's a gibberish of the same level that the conservatives spout, meaningless dribble. Noise. The effects are massive, drastic and ultra damaging. Do we hear things like "er yes, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia suggests it must have had an impact of some kind, probably on the infrastructure and a few people" or.... "the mass pile up on the M1 suggests that it probably had some sort of impact on the vehicles involved, affecting both the shape of them and the feelings of the people inside". What IS this effing gibberish????? What the heck is going on here?? Who IS this guy?
Total grifting BS
Drivel
What is the actual point of Brexit? It makes life more difficult for lots of people. It was supposed to make things better. Clearly these guys can’t show it has so maybe just go back into the EU if only for those people who benefit.
Spend money without earning any - that will make us wealthier. And there is a God, and we'll all go to heaven, Leeds United will win the Premiership next season, and Selena Gomez and I will have a passionate love affair.
The trouble is the Tories believe this crap.
Brexit going great !👍
Sterling versus the Euro is actually very strong, not at all like the doomsday scenario the media portrayed
GBP vs Euro: 18 Jul 2015 *1.440* 5 March 2024 *1.169* (down *-0.27* -18.7%)
"very strong" you said?
@@happyslappy5203 you're cherry picking, instead of looking at averages.... I could do the same and pick certain dates in my favour so stop fooling yourself
@@shughy1 GBP To Euro Exchange Rate History for 2015: Average: 1.3764
GBP To Euro Exchange Rate History for 2023: Average: 1.1495
-0.2269 -16.56%
Only 2% difference with 5 March 2024 rate. Peanuts. Stop fooling yourself.
@@shughy1 « Brexit vote explained: low skills, lack of opportunities and poverty… Age, income and education matter, though it is educational inequality that was the strongest driver. » (jrf org uk political mindsets)
Among those with no qualifications, 65 percent voted to Leave, and 35 percent to Remain.
@@shughy1 « A new study by the University of Leicester’s mathematics department, argues that a 3 per cent increase in the voting public accessing higher education could have reversed the Brexit result. "Higher education is found to be the predominant factor dividing the nation, in particular in England and Wales, between remain and leave.” »
The UK is the 6th biggest economy in the World, and the 8th biggest manufacturing economy in the World having recently overtaken France, it looks like something is going well whatever people say
Interesting. Where did you get your figures?
The UK held the 5th largest economy ranking for several years in the period leading up to Brexit.
After Brexit: The UK's economy fluctuated and was overtaken by India in 2022, dropping it to the 6th position. The UK sits behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India.
Which makes Brexit a good idea?
No.
It is totally obvious that putting up trade barriers is bad for trade and no amount of misleading stats can change that fact.
Chap I know runs an Italian deli. Pays £1000 a month for a customs agent.
£1000, £1000. That is £1000.
"6th largest" in itself is meaningless, when others are multiple times your size. The UK is about 2% of world trade, that is how "important" you are.
How is it that you never come up with the UK's ranking in gdp per capita, a little bit more meaningful ranking?
"it looks like something is going well". Is it? The UK being the only one that shrank (1,1% to be precise) since pré covid, where the EU grew 2,7% and the US even more?
Coming up with meaningless rankings again, your specialty. You should apply for a job with this institution.
Of course you ignore the massive inequality, most of the UK's wealth is held by a very few and it also has some of the highest poverty of any of the developed nations, proud of that are you?
am sure that this person is a Tory🤣🤣🤣🤣
Nonsense