"Can China Rise Peacefully?" with Dr. John Mearsheimer
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- čas přidán 5. 09. 2024
- Dr. John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, presents his recent theories on the rise of China. The lecture took place at the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law on March 26, 2013.
Professor Mearsheimer lectures are like a good whisky. 2022 and still going
He speaks only of his own opinion and views, assuming that China is like the west.
China is nothing like the west therefore it will not behave or think the same way.
The mainland and Taiwan is a lot more closer than you think. They have differences in style of government but it is highly unlikely there will be military conflict.
China is not like the west = Chinese exceptionalism. Taiwan is a lot closer than you think = manifest destiny.
When Mao offered to send troops to Vietnam to help Ho Chi Minh fight the French. Ho flatly declined. Ho's reasoning was that, the French may here now but they will eventually leave. With the chinese, they will stay forever.
I am Chinese from mainland and studying here for engineering. I was really impressed with John's theory. I am just thinking that is there any possible for US to develop a strategy to slow China's growth? In my mind, this is much cheaper approach than form a new east Asia "NTO". For example, let india or Japan to surpass china in growth rate.
+engttu Japan is a developed country, so it is hard to have a high growth rate, but India can have a high growth rate for very long time and it will
The only way those two countries can surpass China in growth is if they have a political government that can promote manufacturing in their own countries and control resources. However, China is large and most people who bid against China on resources they lose. And corporations that go to India to manufacture find it harder because China already have people who have been trained in manufacturing.
Also India have great scientists but not much else. They have very little infrastructure. Terrible political system that only argues and has hard time to agree to deliver growth. And no domestic markets mostly controlled by foreign countries. And very little manufacturing capabilities.
?!你想干嘛
China is the greatest country in the world. power emanates from the central government, to the grassroots core.
Learn a lot here. But seriously, I hope China will not follow the hegemony footsteps of the Americans when it gets stronger.
I just do not like his assumptions. How can you compare a big country's intention with one human's intention about divorce. It is very different. Statistically more people will bring more stable intention.
This man is never political correct 100!!!!!
Chinese learned from history and are aware that power projection is economically wasteful and does not last in the long run.
Simon, the current Mongolia nation is formed in the early 20th century. Western countries and Japan carved China into pieces just like what happened to the Ottaman empire that was broken out into ‘modern nations’ - Turkey, Libya, Egypt, etc. The Japanese installed a puppet emperor (the Qing emperor that was dethroned) to govern Manchu, the Russian curved out Mongolia, the British unilaterally draw an arbitrary line in Tibet and also took Hong Kong. Portages took Macau, etc.
10:50 Three assumptions MARK
24:42 Monroe Doctrine
40:29 inter-dependency
9:29 min ... sounds like some one was hurt, and it was not an unintended result from a benign manner, even if the mannerism appeared benign.
13:19 min ... respectfully, while I don't necessarily disagree, totally or otherwise, with so many allies it seems like, how many possibilities for ... ? ... a sort of quality/quantity weighting/distribution consistency variation(s), and, some people are only interested in toppling things of a high perceived worth/value, things seen to be at the top, and or, to take over a position seen to be at the top ... sort of like a tall poppy syndrome ...
3. Less culture shock in Taiwan than in China. In China, I've noticed an every-man-for-himself mentality that leads to pushiness, lack of lines, and general lack of courtesy. [Please note this is just a generalization I've noticed while visiting cities in China-- NOT a statement about all Chinese people.]
If the NSA decides to persecute him for publishing a classified doctrine and he would take refuge in China, would that change anything about his general point ? I don't think so.
Any form of federation of RU,JP,DE,FR,GB - which means complete Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Pacific - would meet fierce resistance by the US and also China - according to the thesis - possibly even uniting the US and CN just as Britain allied with Japan after their defeat of Russia. Or would it not ?
4. You'll be learning Traditional Chinese! It's easier to learn both Traditional and Simplified Chinese if you start off with Traditional. Plus Traditional is 9372638426934 times more aesthetically pleasing!
He is looking through his own rose tinted glasses.
Look.. .a bully is giving a talk about how bullying works at international level.
Komputer Calgary How is he a bully again?
John is not a bully. He is a thinker and a scholar. His theory on Great Powers is derived from principled realism.
i don't think so
To see the Chinese perspective, one has to understand Confucianism that avoids conflict and stresses on harmonious existence. Trying to form an alliance surrounding China will not work in the long run as China trades with her surrounding countries increase, it will use its financial cloud to break up the alliance one at a time.
Perhaps it is more productive to view China not entirely as a competitor but a competitor cum collaborator. Think win-win instead of win-loss.
3:35 min ... "structure matters" .... hehehe. I'm not disagreeing.
4 replies.
Short version:
Significance of the US Constitution: in the US; outside the US.
Significance of other parts of the world having their own constitution: to that part of the world; to the US.
Significance of a Constitution in cohesion, flexibility, peace, competition, being kept accountable: from an internal point of view; from an external point of view.
Examples:
- an oath is taken (by US military) to "support and defend the Constitution of the United States"
- framers of the Constitution of Australia were influenced significantly by the Constitution of the USA.
-"The constitutions of a number of other countries were also considered at the constitutional conventions, ... "In substance, ... , the Australian Constitution was drafted at the 1891 Convention."
- if EU invested in coming up with their own Constitution.
- the ability to converse with others based on their own constitution - it looks like, it seems like, it sounds like, it feels like ... based on the (your) constitution, this is inconsistent or is consistent or ... e.t.c.
- the ability to converse with others based on your own constitution - it looks like, it seems like, it sounds like, it feels like ... based on the (our) constitution, this is inconsistent or is consistent or ... e.t.c.
Crimea doesn't sort of look like a voice box, entrance to the larynx in a mouth?
....................
Example:
Part of a conversation on fb:
A reply:
Rubbish, If you want to live in a society, don't risk being a "typhoid Mary"!
That ain't rocket science!
, "Rubbish, If you want to live in a society, don't risk being a "typhoid Mary"!
That ain't rocket science!"
... that came from?
The reply:
Eleonora Formato It didn't need to "come from" anywhere.
Society can and must protect itself from those who would intentionally harm it!
People who plant bombs, and people who spread killer viruses are but 2 examples!
A reply:
Eleonora Formato It was a response to just this rubbish!
"end up in camps of enforced medical procedures and being medicated, or to end up in the alternative camp of elimination"
, that hasn't happened in history?
... how do people spread killer viruses?
A reply:
"Eleonora Formato Not getting vaccinated, not social distancing, not covering their faces when coughing or sneezing ... etc, etc,!"
, not getting vaccinated, is on a similar level to people who plant bombs?
, almost sounds like it is seen or treated as if like terrorism or a terrorist?
... also, seems a bit authoritarian.
... this is part of the Australian Constitution ....
Chapter 1: The Parliament: Part V: Powers of the Parliament.
Section 51 "... subject to this Constitution, ... to make laws for the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth ... "; and,
(xxiiiA) "... medical ... (but not so as to authorize any form of civil conscription)"
(Australian Parliament House, website)
and,
... this is part of the Australian Constitution ....
Chapter V: The States
Section 116 ("Commonwealth not to legislate in respect of religion")
"The Commonwealth shall not make any law for establishing any religion, or for imposing any religious observance, or for prohibiting the free exercise of any religion, and no religious test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust under the Commonwealth."
(Australian Parliament House, website)
(While it isn't the US Constitution, and an oath is taken to "support and defend the Constitution of the United States", this is part of the Australian Constitution .... )
when Ancient China was powerful, it didn't pursue military or political dominance of other country. If China had Colonial ambitious, Australia would be a province of China already...
It is.
No officially but it is
Ancient China was a constant war of violent conquest, where dozens of countries were annihilated, their languages banned, their books burned, their people exterminated, etc. There is one only China because they killed everyone they managed to
Uh, in a word: Japan.
According to Sun Yat-Sen, if China develops a foreign policy, it's neighbours - former western colonies - can fully subscribe to, then it's existence will be justified.
And such a proper 'Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere' may have some chance to deter US patronization.
However, it would have either to come by surprise - or the US would have to be distracted by ongoing major operations in the Middle East or even a civil war (for instance about the constitution) at home.
I have never heard Sun Yat Sen been quoted saying what you described. Can you provide a link ?
Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere was an imperialist Japanese concept developed after occupying the territories they have invaded during WW2. Go check it's wiki entry of the same name.
@@tweedy4sg
"Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere"
If I didn't knew about it, including the atrocities that lead to Japan's collapse, I wouldn't have brought it up...
"I have never heard Sun Yat Sen been quoted saying what you described. Can you provide a link ?"
That is a valid and relevant question and I wish I could answer it from the top of my head.
It's hard to reconstruct what source one had in mind _8 years ago_ ...
I'll try to come up with something.
This article should give a hint - beyond the overwhelming constant US propaganda since the 1990s, complaining about 'Leninism' - that the political heritage of Sun in the People's Republic runs rather deep while the 'Kung-Fu master from England' - the way Marx was introduced e.g. to the Triads among the striking miners in Anyuan - has been re-interpreted in 1979 until he fits a *'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics'* ...
foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/01/chinese-communist-party-ccp-sun-yat-sen/
This is just a snippet from Sun's 'The Vital Problem of China' (1917) - to illustrate his 'Leninist' anti-imperial stance that demanded to make allies in the region - as befit to a 'Central Power'...
_"Britain has followed unswervingly a certain policy, viz. a policy of seeking friends among those countries which can be sacrificed in order to further her own interests. China is suited to satisfy this purpose, and that is why Britain wants her for an ally"_
It is a question of *localized 'modernization'* and *political geography* - not ideology (to legitimate political rule) as the West claims.
we had Vietnam .
It is. One foreigner put it:
Taiwan because:
1. It's safer. Food is safe; streets are safe; public transportation is safe.
2. The people are friendlier and more open to foreigners. Many foreigners study at Taiwanese Universities or go for business or leisure. You won't be discriminated against. China is open to foreigners, but unfortunately you will be 95% certain to encounter cases where being foreign will mean extra harassment for your money.
But can you explain why today half of Mongolian territory and the whole Manchu territory fall into China's map? BTW, the great wall of China is built NOT for defence, but for offence. In old days, Chinese emperors extended the great wall into their strongest enemy's land Mongolian and used the wall as the front line in battlefield.
In which universe did you get the secret ancient Chinese history book?
Historically, HAN Chinese has an isolationist mentality. They built the great wall and maintained it through different dynasties, isolating themselves from the outside world. HAN Chinese don’t have history of colonizing other territory. The extension into Tibet occurred during the Yuan dynasty under the Mongol rule and part of central Asia was absorbed into China during the Manchus’ rule.
不了解中国农民，不算了解中国。
Feel how it tends to behave..confucian way....mutual respect...
Je ne suis pas d'accord avec Mr Mearsheimer sur : "Chine et Corée du sud ne peuvent pas travailler ensemble " !
You knowledge of China history is somewhat limited. At the end of Ming dynasty, there was a pleasant uprising and the dynasty was overthrown. At the same time, the Mongolian and Manchurian joined forces to take China but was stopped by the great wall. For some reason, the Ming general joined forces with the Manchurians/Mongolians (8 banner troops) instead of serving the new emperor to retake the capital. This is why Mongolia and Manchu became part of China. The Manchu was later sinicized.
thanks kindly
Best Regards
sjw
Stacy, visit Taiwan, that's where the better China is. :-)
Republic of Taiwan is not China!
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Clearly a realist x) It's such a shallow world view.
Good thing we live in a world where people don't kill or oppress each other and we all hold hands and sing in harmony