YEMEN | A World Terror Threat?
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- čas přidán 20. 05. 2024
- In December 2023, the United States announced the creation of a new naval task force in the Red Sea: Operation Prosperity Guardian. This will tackle the rising threat posed to shipping by the Iranian-backed Houthi Movement based in Yemen. However, the mission faces many challenges. Quite apart from limited international support, there is a danger that it could undermine efforts to resolve the civil war in Yemen. In addition, it could destabilise relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have been recently improving. So, what exactly is the threat all about?
Yemen is one of the most war-torn countries in the world. Having emerged as two separate countries, the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen), they merged in May 1990 to form the Republic of Yemen. For many years, this was ruled by Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, in 2012, he was forced to resign after mass protests erupted as part of the Arab Spring. This sparked a brutal civil war as the northern-based Houthi Movement seized power in much of the country. This, in turn, led to a Saudi Arabia intervention. But since 2022, the level of fighting has dropped significantly, and there are hopes that a peace agreement may be found. And it’s this that is causing so much concern. Many fear that the new US-led naval mission, Operation Prosperity Guardian, while crucial for protecting the international economy, may upset the delicate search for peace, plunge Yemen back into conflict, and re-ignite Saudi and Iranian tensions - thus aggravating the situation in the broader Middle East.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:48 The Gaza War and Threat from Yemen
01:44 Yemen and the Red Sea
02:54 The Creation of a Unified Yemen
05:55 Yemen: From Unification to Civil War, 1990-2015
07:03 The Advance of the Houthi Movement
08:26 International Intervention in the Yemen Civil War
09:37 From Crisis to Ceasefire in Yemen
11:29 Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping
13:19 Will the US Task Force Undermine Middle East Peace?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Yemen Foreign Ministry
www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/en/
US Department of Defense
www.defense.gov
UN Special Envoy for Yemen
osesgy.unmissions.org
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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Yemen #RedSea #Houthis
While largely neglected for the past decade, the situation in Yemen and the Red Sea has suddenly received considerable attention. But while Houthi attacks pose a danger to international trade, tackling that problem threatens to reignite the war in Yemen, thus making the world’s worst humanitarian crisis even worse. So, what should be done about the situation? Is it really such a threat? And should other Red Sea and Aran states be getting involved? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Thank you, Professor, for your intelligent attention to Yemen and to the serious crisis of death and devastation that this part of the world and its vulnerable people have endured for quite some time.
Is it fair to assume that the Western allies are only now taking action because of the threat to the global economy? Their vested interests?
Where have they been for the last ten years while children, women, and men have been slaughtered by and through direct violence and deprivation? The humanitarian crisis is ineffable.
What is their delicate balancing act really about? Placating either Iran or Saudi Arabia? Both? Why? Oil? Money? International and transnational trade? The genocide against Palestinians? The repression of Israeli refuseniks?
All this, and whatever the powerful decide to do, the vulnerable will suffer and die, as usual. People with power can and must do better, at least.
You are focused on Yemen. Wrong. There is a Chinese naval base in Eritrea. The mobility of oil tankers and the profitability of Haifa port are important. The Saudi government will now control Yemen. And of course China will go from there.
13:12 + Saudians will join to prosperty guards.
What should be done? Biden's UNSC veto should be revoked. The man is ill.
Don't you think it is part of a chess game played by Iran ? If you agree with it , the only way to deal with it to resolve the issues with Iran.
You glossed over the the part where Egypt entered the civil war in Yemen, embroiling it for years in what is known as Egypt's Vietnam. The result of this long failed involvement was a key factor in the lead up to (and many claim loss) in the Six Day War. May well explain Egypt's reluctance to get involved this time around.
Egypt is afraid of Islamic fundamentalist fighters. As they should be.
Agreed Banto The United Arab Republic debacle was a disaster for President Nasser's government
and the Egyptian people.
But this time, Egypt will I fear struggle to stay out of the conflict
Anything that affects the Suez Canal and its operations concerns Egypt. Particularly after the recent massive investments in upgrading the canal.
I suspect the US defense establishment would consider increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to be a positive.
Thanks. Yes, some certainly would. And that was my initial thought as well. But I’m sure others can also recognise the value on having the two maintaining a calm relationship, especially with everything else going on in the world. Besides any hope of Saudi Arabia recognising Israel is off the cards for a while now.
For real I was just expecting you to talk about this. Learning a lot by the news, I was just hoping of you to give your analyzed version. You never fail to deliver. Keep up the good work
PS: I hope one day you will talk about the Catalan independence movement
Oh he did that years ago
@@rejvaik00 Actually, you are right. I think I didn't search good enough. Using google give me the Catalonia Movement video but searching in youtube I couldn't find anything. Thanks u
Yea, but it's probably worthy if an update by now
Thanks. I did a video very early on. But I have been meaning to come back to this at some point.
this just good shit man. keep it up! Interested to hear your take on ethiopia and somaliland deal. potentially might destabilise the region further
Thanks so much! :-) I hope to cover the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal next week. It’s an important development. But it might not be quite as significant as it seems - at least just yet.
Thank you professor. As always nice and informative. Facts that we can not get it from regular media ❤
Thanks for explaining the situation so clearly, I learned a lot. Keep up the good work.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it!
First of all, I thank you for your interest and clarifying and publishing the facts. This considers you special and genius
Superb in depth analysis. The addition of the historical detail so greatly helps putting these often complex situations into some context. Your Burma video - case in point. Outstanding and informative information - thank you.
Thank you so much, Richard. I really appreciate it. I think putting these international issues into their broader historical, political and legal contexts is worthwhile - especially as this background is often missed in the news analysis.
Haven't you forgotten the main reason why the houthi's decided to attack ships plying the Bab Al mandeb waterway? And is it all the ships being attacked or is it only those which are directly or indirectly associated to a particular country or carrying goods to or from that country, while ships from other countries have not been targeted thus far? While you have drabble in the irrelevant history of Yemen you have not addressed the current context pertaining to the conflict.
"while ships from other countries have not been targeted thus far"
This is completely false. Many ships with no links to Israel whatsoever have been targeted.
@@seneca983 How do you know??????
@@Yusufhalig It's easy to find many news stories of ships unrelated to Israel being attacked. One example is the Norwegian tanker Blaamanen but theer are many others as well.
@@seneca983can we at least pretend to address the why?
@@ignitespark9293 Do you mean, why are the Houthis attacking ships that don't seem to have links to Israel? Well, I don't know but I can speculate. One possibility is that they're lumping all of the West with Israel and want to also try to pressure Europe or the US. Another possibility is that they just don't know which ships are linked to Israel so some of the attacks are done semi-blindly.
Prosperity Guardian looks more like a publicity stunt. 8 of those 10 countries are only sending 2-10 soldiers. UK has given one warship to US command in the task force. France is in fact having their own operation where they escort EU ships. It is very interesting from a political perspective. American coalitions are not what they used to be. We have also seen that the big destroyers are not suited for protecting mercantile shipping. You need frigates for those missions.
they are affraid of shiah movement
Problem is them Houthi drones apparently cost $2000 the interception missiles cost $2 million ! If I’ve read correctly
Just subscribed. You are good at outlining what is going on. Thank you.
Thank you for a much needed short and factual based analysis of the situation in Yemen and Red Sea area rising conflict ☆
Merry Christmas🎄
Thank you so much. On both counts! And a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you. 🙂🎄
Thanks Professor for this, yet another very useful video!
If the "Prosperity Guardian" is launched, about how long do you think that it will take the US and allies to be able to restabilize the situation at "Bab Al-Mandeb"?
Thanks so much. The problem is that it can't really do much to stop the source of the attacks. It can just try to tackle the attacks themselves. In this sense, it will have to try to persuade companies that the task force can provide adequate security while the Houthis continue their missile and drone attacks. It will be interesting to see how many shipping companies will take the risk - and whether insurance companies will be willing to offer reasonable premiums to vessels passing through the area.
@@JamesKerLindsayI am sure that if the operation is started, it will have no significant effect on a group like Houthis. But the fact is Houthis will themselves stop this aggression within a short span of time because it is a conditional aggression. As soon as the Gaza ceasefire is materialized this Houthi phenomenon in the red sea will also disappear. Furthermore, Houthis also have their stakes and will not carry on this posture for a long.
@@thought605 It's not that conditional though is it? Because they had attacked ships previously before the war in gaza, just not on the same scale.
Only Bahrain joined the US led coalition against the houthis. Gulf states rejected it, question is why? Same as no arab nation will ride on Israeli tanks in Gaza after the war.
The arab streets public opinion is pro Palestinian while their governments inability to aid Palestinians, saudi and Egypt shot down missiles meant for Israel.
Unless the occupation of Palestine ends. Iran will always be relevant and influence the middle east.
Until the Iranian people overthrow their tyrannical government. It's only a question of time
Palestinian occupation?
@LoboalphaMASTER It's the most un-concealed occupation on God's green earth..
@@leylamohamed7950 Then he should rephrase that as "occupation of Palestine", because in the way that the english language works, "Palestinian occupation" makes it sounds as if the Palestinians are the ones occupying something.
@@LoboalphaMASTER I've edited it and I hope it's to your satisfaction. Other than that is there any other statement that you dispute?
I find it amazing how Yemen 🇾🇪 is dealing with hunger and a broken economy but can somehow find the money for drones and missles
It precisely because they suffered so much they are in complete solidarity with palestine unlike the rich arab lords who sign peace pacts with israel and try to keep it secret from their own population
Courtesy of Iran
Those are the Houthies terrorists who are only controlling 30% of the country. They don't represent the Yemeni people or care about them
Yemen has a right to defend itself
@@hiroshi-kun8216Yemen defends itself against Yemen.
Very informative, thanks
Thanks so much!
great educational contents thanks profeessor!
THANKS YEMEN 🇾🇪
Very useful and clear information . Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks so much, Peter. I hope all is well at your end. Have a lovely time over the holidays!
Thank you for your analysis with historical background.
I am missing the following question:
Why is it, that the global super power with the help of a big coalition not able to stop the threat of a popular movement in one of the poorest countries in the world?
Therefore it would be interesting to point out the capabilities and advantages of Ansarallah.
Thanks. Great question. And a very complex one. Essentially it is because the US doesn’t want to get involved directly. It doesn’t want to send in troops to Yemen. This would be a disaster. Aside from its horrible experience in Afghanistan, it would just be going head to head with an Iranian backed proxy. And it doesn’t want to launch air strikes against the Houthi as this would destabilise the peace talks that are taking place and encourage Iranian retaliation. Washington is therefore doing what it can under these circumstances. It is protecting the shipping but not attacking the Houthi. And the Houthi are able to cause a lot of damage at a fraction of the cost of protecting against their strikes. As others have pointed out, an explosive drone costs thousands to make. Shooting it down can cost millions!
I wonder did the failed unification in 1990 have something to do with the current situation. Yemen is like two states in one country, the north ran by a Shia gang and the south ran by rag tag groups of Sunni tribes. They prioritise their greed. Despite shouting about Palestinian solidarity, only the north really did something to support Hamas, while those in the south are devoid of any sympathies to Hamas.
iran has never helped any single palestinian in their country. they merely want to extend their power
Thanks Prof for this clear analysis .
Thank you so much!
Great video! Love the explainer...😉🐿️💚
Thanks so much! :-)
U are sharing Yemen background in a neutral, factual and interesting way.
Thanks, it was very useful
Nice video sir❤️❤️❤️
This Channel deserves 1 Million subscribers ❤
Thank you so much! :-)
James misleads the audience.
@@pouyabahrami7669 You should revise your geopolitical knowledge bro ... I, being a voracious book reader (read more than 25000 pages just this year), with utmost honesty give the verdict that although we can have some difference on a particular issue yet Prof. gives a fair, and honest analysis.
Perhaps, but there are plenty of decent geo-political channels on YT.
Nice job professor :)
Thank you so much!
Iran’s supreme leader told the head of Hamas via, Ismail Haniyeh, in a face-to-face meeting in Tehran that his country would not enter the war with Israel and accused the terror group of not giving any prior warning of the Oct 7 attacks.
The Houthi didn't accept this. This is why the Houthi are Iranian allies, not proxies. That is why they didn't follow the Iranian lead of staying out of the Gaza conflict.
Bahrain has decided to join Operation Prosperity Guardian. For this reason, Bahrain should be careful to defend it's oil infrastructure. This situation is rendered more complicated because Bahrain has a Shia majority under a Suni monarch.
The number of dead and missing in Gaza is 28,000. With a ceasefire unlikely, and the Israelis and Americans facing increased isolation, the number of dead and missing in Gaza could reach 50,000 by March 2024. By that time, conflagration across the Middle East could be a real possibility.
I'm so glad that I no longer live in that part of the world. The regional trajectory of the conflict in Gaza is very bad.
Irans supreme leader said that the Hamas surprise attack on oct. 7th Was a master plan.
Iran didn't say anything about joining the war directly. They let it open. Abdollahian made indirect threats, that the Israeli attacks could lead the whole region in Chaos.
And there we are
US Army, Kagnew Station, Asmara - - 1966-69, we monitored the conflict in Aden. an eternal conflict.
Have you ever returned back to kagnew?
@@boganix not yet.
Shame you didn't mention how Britain put huge pressure on Saudi Arabia and its allies to stop their offensive to clear the coast in 2018. In fact, Saudi allied troops were 5 km away from Hodida when Jeremy hunt threatened to go to the security council. This is a major reason why Saudi Arabia didn't join.
Would be happy to discover the issue of the houthi in respcet of the neighbor countries like saudi and eritrea. Their affilation, or antagonistic deals with the yemen governing group. Thank professors
They clearly said they are only targeting shipping going to Israel, let Israel fight it out.
Except the ships getting attacked claim they are not going to Israel
@tiberianexcalibur
The Hutis claim that they will attack every ship moving towards Red Sea. Which means also ships that moves to Saudi Arabia and Suez Canal. So it is not only Israeli problem. It’s a global problem
@@Rasuluniriana this is not true. These people have been living there for centuries and they have not imposed any blockades before, the only thing that has changed is the genocide launched by Israel in Gaza. please recheck your sources and use some basic conmen sense
@@AmrHussein1805 they still claim that they will attack every ship is moving towards the Red Sea. The Gaza conflict it is not the only reason for that. It’s in favor of Iran. Show the world that they can. So if all the ships in danger it’s not only our problem. It’s your problem too.
Cowardly EU countries have already withdrawn from the task force. Closing the Suez Canal will have little effect on the USA. Russian and Turkish ships wont be attacked
Very Good History
🧠 good explanation with detail history
Thank you so much. There’s a lot to try to cover with Yemen. It’s a fascinating country.
America supports and defends the Israeli occupation entity that commits the most heinous crimes against the Palestinian people. Therefore, Yemen has the right to defend their Brothers in Palestine. isn't it
No, actually they even have a legal obligation to. According to that same obligation, all the countries aiding and abetting Israel are currently accomplices to a crime against humanity and have no legal or moral basis to condemn Yemen.
@@nihluxler1890 Who will prosecute those complicit with Israel?
Then houthis should support official Yemen government then if they care about civilians so much
@@ShubhamMishrabro Why would they support a government that spent years bombing its civilians?
What do ye men, a global threat?
According to Scott Ritter, the US-led coalition forces is a paper tiger. It is relying on. deterrence, on the other hand, it can't do anything to stop the disruption to shipping through the Red Sea
Scott Ritter?! lmao
Do we expect any major prices rise in the Fuel Oil and Commodity markets?
Thanks. It does seem as though this will lead to price rises, in all sorts of areas. I even saw a report that IKEA is talking about supply chain delays because of this. www.bbc.com/news/business-67780947.amp
Merry Xmas!! Καλά Χριστούγεννα!!
These long-range missiles the Houthis are chucking around aren't home-made knock-offs.
They are russian knockoffs made by India or Iran
@@VV-go4bnincorrect. India doesn’t sell weapons to yemen or iran.
@@TechnoViking__ may be indirectly, but both Iran an India manufacture the licensed versions of Russian developed missiles
@@VV-go4bn so by that logic USA indirectly armed isis and taliban? And btw there is NO evidence of ANY indian made weapons in the hands of houthis.
Magnificent
Thank you.
Certainly a real economic threat. though not much of a military one. Thus, the response is obvious.
Only country standing against genocide
This is mostly a European, North African, and Middle East problem, what's the Seychelles got to do with this?
French colony
40% r not Shia rather zaidys.and ottoman ruled only 2 cities in the cost as British ruled only Aden in the cost the rest of the land were ruled by yemeni tribes some allied with British. The British left immediately after some weapons reach to Southern Yemen in emergency leave after what happened to the ottomans around sanaa
Yemen is already one big mess for a very long time
Thanks, Robert. Indeed. Sadly it has a very long history of conflict and political instability.
Thanks. Have a great day, God bless. Oh, by the way, this looks like a ambush.
Wow. Unbelievable analysis
Thank you!
This "houthi" shenanigans is starting to look just as cooked up and controlled by Israel as Hamas
Houthi rebels are likely to defeat America like the Ragtag army of Viet-Kong and Afghan Taliban.
You need to be careful take out your map and take a look at the Middle East and North Africa. Israel get's it's oil from Libya. Why? Because it Libya needs "weapons" and Israel can use it small fleet of warships to escort oil tankers from Libya to Israel. So it doesn't use the Red Sea.
The nations that are being affected by the Red Sea being shutdown is China and India, they ship "cheap finished goods" to your markets such as "Smart Phones" or "Washing Machines" but now that they have ship around the "horn of Africa" this negates their low wage advantage. You will be seeing increased prices in your stores because of the Houthi.
Are you planning on doing a video on the recent mass shooting in Czech Republic?
It seems in 2024, seasons ports in Southern Africa will see more traffic than usual. Egypt will less traffic in the Suez Canal and accordingly will realize lower canal-related revenues.
Yemen would be no problem to the world if a simple demand which is the demand of 90+% of the world is met: Stop the Gaza genocide !
You're right! Gaza must be freed from Hamas.
@@BluffyMoo yes exacly
There is no genocide. It's a 3 to 1 civilization to militant casualty ratio. Recent events that where worse somehow never got labeled a genocide.
Dear Professor James, thanks a lot for your informative video. I like your way of handling today’s political situations with their historical backgrounds. I have one question in that case; we know that since the first Hamas attack of the last autumn, the USA has been locating its naval forces to the area and I assume these forces are not just for a fight against Hamas. So as the tension raising in the region, do you think that Yemen and its back supports can face a US lead coalition attack? Thanks in advance 💐
Are you really Kurdish? If so I'd like to ask, do you know what Kurdish people (in general) think of the Israel-Hamas war? Are they largely neutral? Are they largely critical of Israel or largely supportive? Thanks in advance
@BeorEviols to be honest, as we sympathise with the plight of Palestinians, generally, we do not get involved.
Thanks so much! Great question. The US will try to avoid any attacks against Yemen. They will try to protect the ships passing through the Red Sea, but not strike back at Houthi forces. The danger is that any intervention against the Houthis could really destabilise the situation on the ground, especially with the peace talks that have been going on. It is an extremely delicate situation, and the US understands this. But it can't leave ships to be attacked or allow the Houthis to undermine international trade indefinitely.
@@BeorEviols Kurdish people are generally religious. They support Palestine for both humanitarian and religious reasons.
yemen was once part of sassanian civilizational port
James hates Iran. Has difficulty mentioning positive facts about Iran. He hates that the Persian Gulf bears Iran's name so he doesn't mention it.
It has an interesting history. Yemen was once a jewish kingdom too, nearly as bloodthirsty as israel.
And Rome too, and they had their own empire before those two too, even before the small Jewish kingdom tribe
This is a extremely well presented explanation about the Houties history & how they became to be .
There's much to think about on how to deal with this situation in the Red sea On one hand the world could sit back do nothing & hope they go away when israel have completed their objectives in Gaza shortly & on the other hand it could lead to a war that nobody really wants to have as the entire world are trying to recover from the financial losses suffered during the covid pandemic .
The problem is that Israel do not have an objective or rather not one they could openly state which is the expulsion of all Palestinians from both the Gaza and The West Bank.
Why did you not say that the Yemenis announced that they were attacking Israeli ships in order to allow the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and that they would stop their operations if Israel allowed the entry of aid?
I think mentioning the unwillingness of other Arab nations to help freeing the Red Sea from Houthis should also be mentioned. Only one nation joined this US-led task force, Bahrain. This has something to do with the widespread anti-Israeli rage among the Arab population and the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to press on with his domicide campaign in Gaza; joining this task force could be seen as complicit in helping Israel, hence why only Bahrain (and likely the UAE) to join due to most population there care less about Palestinians due to past narrative of Palestinian betrayal during the Gulf War.
The palestinian refugees sided with Iraq during Kuwait invasion. That was hilarious example of bite the hand that feeds you. 😂😂
@@kth6736 They tried overthrowing the Jordan regime as well yet it's easier to blame Israel for their problems than look in the mirror.
Funnily enough, as far as the USA goes. Going around the horn of Africa isn't that big a deal. But for Europe is awful. I think that is why France is already doing convoy work. While US task force is sitting idle.
The Australian government has declined a USA request to share Red Sea patrols as part of a joint force ... Australia's navy is very small and is fully committed to supporting 'freedom of navigation' rights in the South China Sea. R (Australia)
France pulled out though
@@bfyrth watched an update on it yesterday. France is part of it. But will not take USA orders and will do its own thing. It looks like France is doing escorting 24/7 as needed. While USA plans on doing like gather everyone then do them once a week or once every other week, in full force.
@@MarkVrem lol. Typical France. ""Yes we must do this. But, no, I'm in charge!". Meanwhile, the USA is chuckling under its breath "Sure, Paris, little buddy, you can be in charge too, just like at Suez in 1956."
I'm totally fine with their decision. It's just ... So French.
Thank you for providing your perspective. Assuming if Saudi Arabia joins the coalition, could the kingdom expect a revolt among its population as this would be viewed as supporting Israel? With Saudi Arabia and Iran joining BRICS, could Russia and China be putting pressure on Saudi Arabia not to join a coalition? Especially since China is dependent on the flow of oil from Iran. Furthermore, US engaging Yemen broadly, could we see a regional war breaking out which could have even worse economic effects? I think that all the authoritarian regimes in the region are susceptible to uprising and revolution should regional forces aid the US.
Saudi won't join the coalition beacuse the peace deal in yemen is about to be exeucted
has nothing to do with israel
KSA for 8 years warned the world about the danger of terrorists houthis nobody cared, why it will care now for you coalitin?
I think You have many great perspective about Yemen. However, Your view seem to be less objective and too pro US view.
For example, Iran support Houthis to destablize the Gulf region. So, with the same logic, we could also say the US support the Far-right wing of Western Ukraine to destablize Ukraine and Eastern European region.
Like it or not Houthi had been the largest power in Yemen for years. it deserves more recognition from the international society. While shooting missile at cargo ships, it attempted to make its point and negotiation can ease the situation and help to reduce the Iranian influence. However, if US and the west simply want to take care Houthi by force, the conflict won't end anytime soon, and could be worse.
But why are yemenis attacking the cargo ships, including the ones which are not heading to israel, but to other countries?
@@GotterVibezThey’re only attacking the ships going towards Israel, and they made it clear that once Israel stops the genocide, they will stop too..
@@GotterVibezAll you have to do is allow food and medicine if the Gaza Ghetto and Yemen will allow you to use their territorial waters for shipping. 🤗
@@UserH7 "They’re only attacking the ships going towards Israel"
They're not only attacking ships going to Israel. They have attacked many ships that have nothing to do with Israel.
@@seneca983 The whole point is to put pressure to israel to stop the horrible things they do to innocent people when everyone else is staying silent, it’s actually a very noble act especially when they know that there will be consequences and yet they don’t care.. very brave people..
So tell me, what will they gain from attacking ships that have nothing to do with israel ? 😅 they’re not pirates, and the red sea has always been there next to them and yet they never attacked any ships before the evil acts of israel started..
The truth is clear.. yet some people chose to look to the other direction, don’t be one of them 🙏🏼
This screams for OP Desert Storm v2
This is an example of western hypocrisy (throwing stones hidden hand) it's a deserving word for those of you who feel democracy, and you like a comedian
How does somewhere with no water or arable land have a population of 30 million
Yemen Hand of GOD
It’s been a busy few months professor but always make sure to catch all your videos! Had to comment on this recent Middle East stuff
I don’t know what the answer is with this Houthi business, I don’t think anyone wants to march on Sanaa, but defending against the strikes isn’t cost-effective, and the more recent bombing raids don’t seem to be all that militarily effective.
Seems to me like the tentative plan is likely to keep the bombing up to degrade the Houthi regime until Israel completes its operation in Gaza, at which point hopefully the shipping attacks will stop.
To be honest as I’ve commented on several past videos about this, I think the Biden administration has got it wrong in the Arabian Peninsula from the beginning. Biden came into office immediately burning down bridges with the Saudis and pulling support for their war against the Houthis, all while delisting the Houthis as a terror group in a misguided attempt to appease Iran and strike a new nuclear deal.
That opened the door to the Saudis bucking western interests on issues like oil prices after the start of the Ukraine War, as well as signing a CCP-backed deal with Iran, all leading to the US Senate panicking and doing everything it can to smooth things over with the Saudis largely to no avail.
I think this has been a lesson that abandoning allies, even unsavory ones like Saudi Arabia, in favor of appeasement of enemies is a strategy that leaves you without any friends. In geopolitics your friends are where you find them, especially in a patch of thorns like the Middle East.
Thanks as always for the video professor!
My country Morocco joined the Saudi war effort in 2015, and while we pulled out due to disagreement, I am still supporting Saudi Arabia in this case, though, since Houthis seized government illegally, and created violence.
However, I found worrying that the Houthis have been able to organise a stable government in spite of war, having watched various documentaries about Yemen, I was shocked of how organised the Houthi regime is - they literally established various departments and kept them afloat despite war. This, combined with brutal bombing campaigns of Saudi Arabia against those northerners due to themselves being Shia Muslims, have done very little to help Saudi Arabia and allies to win the war. The reason why Houthis failed to takeover the south is because the majority of southerners are Sunni Muslims and ardently against the Houthis.
This kind of tactics have failed to deter Houthis from doing more dangerous things. The seizing of ships in Red Sea demonstrated their eagerness to do more. While they claim they are doing so to help Palestine, in truth, they are aiming to stifle Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries in the peninsula to comply to Iran's demands, they could care less of Palestinians, as seen with Iranian terrorist groups in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
That does not mean Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE care more for the Palestinian people?
It's a bit expansive and not that simple as you allege. Arabs streets are pro Palestinian and are angry at their governments which does little or nothing. Houthis missiles were shot down by Saudi and Egypt. The Saudi meeting of the Arab and Muslim states resolutions were shot down by Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and Morocco.
That's when the houthis initiated attacks against what they call Israeli ships. Arab streets too see all that.
Why do you think USA only got Bahrain in it's coalition?
Why do you find it worrying that they have been able to organize a STABLE government?
You sound like a war mongering CIA agent that WANT instability in the middle east.
Gotcha!
اخويا. انا يمني و احب اقول لك في اليمن مذهبين شافعي في الجنوب وزيدي في الشمال . الزيود هم ليسو شيعه مثل الايرانيين ولكنهم يميلون للمذهب الشيعي.
في بدايه عاصفه الحزم نحن السنه استبشرنا خيرا من المملكة ولكن المملكة لم تجلب لنا سواء الدمار والقتل والحصار .
الحكومه اللي تسمي نفسها شرعيه هي عباره عن مجموعه مرتزقه في فنادق الرياض
@@Klopp2543 well said!
You are not Arab. You don't care what happens to our cousins in Palestine. just say it
Did US make a mistake by not supporting Saudi Arabia when it was fighting the same Hauti rebel in Yeman? Saudi Arabia have found their peace with the rebel and now they don't want to rock that board.
The US made the mistake to support Isreal
Thank you for another brilliant analysis. This case alone demonstrates the long lasting consequences of colonialism.
Ne kadar da aristokrat bir bey ☺️
I stand with Yemen
Which Yemen?
I'm half Yemeni, we do not recognize Israel, and bless any attack on U.S installations in the Middle East. @@JamesKerLindsay
Hello, and thank you for a very thorough and compelling explanation of the region's history.
One thing, that although mentioned, doesn't get the appropriate focus in the video, is the role of Iran in this crisis.
The Houthis can do what they are doing, only because of Iran's backing. More over, they do it as a direct interest of Iran, with Iran guiding and directing.
Iran tries to hold all the Shia Muslims in the area under it's "umbrella", with it's clear mission to destabilize everything related to westerns values.
I assess, that the West attempts to appease Teheran, in order to try to avoid escalation is a "Short Sight" and misunderstanding of the long term risks
Thank you very much. As you note, I did mention that Iran supports the Houthis and that Tehran has also said that any US action in the Red Sea would face problems. But maybe I didn’t bring the link out strongly enough, as you suggest. You are right. Iran is a key actor all this. Sometimes it is difficult to pull all the different strands together. As you know, this is an enormously complex conflict with lots of different parties.
The threat was from Iran-Houthi Shias & Iran missiles & drones continually flies above the holy Kaaba in Mecca without any remorse to Sunni sentiments. Iran Shias consider those drone attacks on ships & tankers as Jihadi raids on infidels of which no Arab nation would allow such radical acts trying to discredit the dignity of Islam.
So let's get this right. The largest humanitarian crisis in the world right now is Yemen by number of displaced people. This has mainly been caused by a civil war and an embargo and seige by Saudi Arabia. And yet the Houthis are most upset with another state hundreds of miles away instead. As are people around the world protesting Israel while they have no idea about Yemen and Saudi. It's quite clear many people are most interested in this debate because of the unique religion that on combatant has. Nobody bats an eyelid when a muslim country causes suffering in another muslim nation.
Task force is not the answer to the red sea crisis
Please talk about sudan !!
Houthis are brave warriors , Yemeni are ansarullah warriors , living by Islamic values
they are cowards like hamas hiding inside tunnels
Yes, that all well and good but Israel doesn't use the Red Sea. It get's oil from place like North Africa that need "weapons". Or countries like Turkey then Israel uses it's warships to escort oil tankers home.
So you need to be in the Mediterranean Sea not the Red Sea to affect Israel.
RIP Captain Holt 😢
Yeman has all rights to protect its waters
And the rest of the world has all rights to protect their ships.
@@Crosmando and have no right to bring weapons to a war
"Yeman has all rights to protect its waters"
But the Houthi rebels are not the Yemeni government and attacking shipping passing nearby isn't protecting one's waters.
I’m amazed that strategists imagine the US would put Yemen above freedom of navigation. Of course US would try not to regenerate Yemen war, but US would never let Iran control access to the canal.
They are attacking ships bound for and piloted by India now. Not much of a US threat.
Verdade
While the US led coalition is trying to fix this situation, it really isn't clear to me why China isn't doing most of the heavy lifting (at least via soft power), as they are the ones who are going to get hit the worst when shipping, mostly from China to Europe, gets a lot more expensive, making the economic situation in China even worse.
They support Palestine and it sucks resources from the US making us do it. In addition, Chinese ships aren't being hit. Only ships with tangential connections to Israel, private or government.
China doesn't realize that it one that going be affected by the Houthi's attacking shipping on the Red Sea. Why? Xi Jinping of China is now running the entire country and but he is so fearful of assassination know one is bring him any news of China or the world. He is totally in a isolated bubble.
What benefit would the houthi actions have for the Palestinians?
Is American even a signatory to the high seas law
Which treaty specifically are you referring to here?
@@seneca983 1983
@@seneca983 I’ve just checked again Tegan never ratified it ,along with ending anti discrimination actions against women an children also it has not ratified the Vienna convention ,it is also not a member of the icc,how can you be the upholder of the international order when you don’t believe in it.
Will the US destroy 10 000 $ worth of UAV attack deones with multi million dollars worth of missiles? A hard to win battle even for superpowers.
The Houthis have revealed that the Empire wears no clothes
How? By getting killed?
@@CedarHunt sometimes that's what it takes. Cowards in the US military wouldn't understand such things. Go back to playing Call of Duty🤣🤣🤣
I think rather than presenting a global threat the Houthi's are both establishing themselves as the main power in the country along with creating a geopolitical importance for the Yemeni nation and accordingly it's people. The clarity that has been given to their declaration in that they are only targeting those ships related to Israel demonstrates their own willingness to not let this become a wider threat; but in a more long-term sense Yemen could certainly leverage their geography to create an economic basis for having a future customs style presence in the area.
Its a free waterway as per maritime law. Charging customs would be an act of piracy.
It would be suicidal for houthis sunce they are still in a civil war.
@@kth6736 That is why I say long-term because it would firstly need a settled and functioning government in Yemen, but as per maritime law the coastal waterways also represent sovereign areas and in the case of that tight body of water Yemen could argue their sovereignty over it.
No they can't. Otherwise all countries will do this@@EamonCoyle
That would be too complicated for James to figure out. He wants to confuse the listener.
@@EamonCoyle no they cant. Iran cant over strait of hormuz either. Neither can sjngapore of Malacca strait.
The brokered peace-deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia was sudden and unexpected. I wonder if it will last, hence their long rivalry.
As long as Iran don't attack SA and SA don't join the RED SEA protection the deal is intact that's logical
Saudi new policy is good
everyone from now on should come and protect thier interest from iranian terror in the region
The time for Saudi Arabia to protect everyone is over
its crazy in a world of progress, stagnation is seen as regress....a few decades ago goods were troansportet slowliers and at a point suez canald did not exist anyway.......today a 10 day delay is already the end of the world :D
When the enemy of your enemy is among your enemies... you're trapped to choose which one is friendlier. An Arab state dilemma.
Not ships , when you say ships you make it feel like it’s all ships , you need to be specific here , Israeli ships or ships that have links with Isreal or dock there , so stop generalizing it 🙄🙄🙄
Yemen isn't a global threat. But an Israili threat.
So called western academic. hahahaha.
Did you actually watch the video?
Awesome content!! Thanks for discussing this topic. What is happening in the Red Sea is in fact an international threat. Unfortunately "passive" coalition efforts in the Red Sea will not accomplish ensuring the freedom of navigation. The current weakness of the US government will only result in more provocative events. The lesson of 1938 has been essential ignored. Passive measures in the Red Sea area will prove to be unsustainable. To shoot down 14 Houthi drones at a cost of $20,000, the US used 18 SM-2 missile at a cost of $2.5 million each. Cost benefit analysis at the US Dept of Defense is a real factor over timein policy decision making and $45 million to shoot down $280,000 worth of drones can not be sustained over time in a "passive" coalition effort. The aggression being seen in the Red Sea is a result in the failure of deterrance, and deterrence is the key to sustainable peace. As always thanks for the excellent content you provide in a true academic perspective. Your work is so refreshing and provides for true learning. 👍
Thanks so much, Andrew. Always really appreciated. Excellent breakdown of the costs vs benefits. You're right. This latest mission will indeed face significant problems maintaining this sort of deterrence. Perhaps that's another reason why Washington is trying to be careful not to inflame things.
admittedly i never knew much about the yemani civil war but aiways assumed this was a proxy war between saudi arabia and iran using the sunni and shia as combatants
Its not global threat, because nothing effect in my country 🤷♂️