F-16 vs SU-35 and the Air War in Ukraine
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- čas přidán 29. 08. 2024
- Gonky @themoverandgonkyshow (F/A-18, T-38A, A320 Pilot), Mover (F-16, F/A-18, T-38, 737 Pilot) and @CasmoTV (AH-64, OH-58, 737 Pilot) discuss an article about the potential of F-16 vs SU-35 battles, and the overall air war in Ukraine to date. Check out The Mover and Gonky Show Mondays at 8PM ET LIVE. • The Mover and Gonky Show
Buy one of C.W. Lemoine's books: www.cwlemoine.com
Subscribe to Gonky's Channel: / @thereadyroom7201
Subscribe to Casmo's Channel: / @casmotv
Check out the Low Level Hell Podcast: www.thelowleve...
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Views presented are my own and do not represent the views of DoD or its Components.
Probably one the most unbiased analysis on CZcams. For context he was working in Malaysia, a country which operates both US and Russian planes, and worked closely with both platforms for extended periods. Gonky is one of the most qualified if not the most qualified to talk on this subject on CZcams.
Malaysia is such an interesting space in the air combat world. Odd mixed fleet plus the RAAF permenantly have a rotation of Super Hornets, Growlers and F-35s there.
@@goodshipkaraboudjan He also talked about Indian SU 30 MKIs which are extremely advanced and can fire Python 5 and I-Derby ER Missiles.
Pilot discipline and training is a game changer for sure.
It means nothing in a highly integrated battlefield, like in Ukraine. It doesn't matter how well the pilots can fly, when the Kinzahl, Iskander, or Kh-32 comes in from the stratosphere, at mach 5, and obliterates your base, with planes, pilots and all.
@@Jawzzy Not to mention all the air defense systems, even those as old as the Ukrainian's S300s. Honestly, Russia not having air supremacy is the biggest surprise of this War so far.
Maybe it's because of deficient SEAD capabilities from Russia, but I think the performances of the Soviet (derived) AA systems (S300, Buk, etc) are also to be credited big time. I mean, Ukraine, with barely updated Soviet era S300 batteries was able to defend itself very well.
But it cuts both ways, Russia also have a lot of these systems. Even if we were to give Ukraine all the F16 they want, I doubt they would get air supremacy either, AA is just too strong.
On both sides, I think we will continue seeing air power providing only a very limited force multiplier (think 1.5x vs 10x (fantasy numbers)). The F16s will help a lot, but it will never be NATO style air supremacy.
@@kakwa Well said.Logically speaking.Way too many variables to make even an informed guess.
.@@kakwa Absolutely correct. but SEAD, the way the old NATO doctrine worked, is not going to work on this battlefield. Even if NATO sent those F-16's with their own pilots, and their own support teams, this battlefield is a different beast. There is a huge number SAM's of many different types and generations. There's always going to be something that's going to see you and be able to track you.
This is not like in the old wars against small countries, that had two, maybe three types of 30 years old SAM's.
Not even NATO, with all their might, could get through this.
And the fact still remains, that even if you do get through, once of twice, you won't have a base to come back to.
@@Jawzzy yea we hear that from the beginning of the war you russian troll !!
Here's a motorcycle analogy, a quote from world champion Kenny Roberts: "A one hundred percent rider on a seventy percent bike will always beat a seventy percent rider on a one hundred percent bike".
Or a Darth Vader thought: "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you have created".
As a aircraft mechanic working in fighters in the military and some Russian warbirds later it comes down to two things, pilot training and aircraft reliability. The second is key as the best pilot in the world if his equipment is constantly breaking down.
I hope we give them D model AMRAMS, a nice supply of HARM missiles, and some nice jamming pods.
And logistical support. Airplanes with no repair materials, tools, and other materiel are sitting lawn fixtures.
Agreed. That's why simpler is usually better when it comes to winning a drawn-out war.
hello! I have worked on some airplanes like the pc12. How is the maintenance compare on russian warbirds to US ones?
@@Max_Da_G USA still sell things to Russia, so what is your point?
I greatly appreciate all of you bringing up the points about the battlefield where these aircraft are being operated in, and not just the aircraft themselves. In Ukraine, the airspace is so congested with opposing air defense systems that simply taking off is likely to make you a target for someone. That is a very harsh environment for any pilot or aircraft to try to work within, and it helps explain exactly why gaining actual air dominance has been impossible for either side to attain. I feel the F-16 can provide some level of support on the battlefield and beyond, but it will also be just as limited as any other aircraft until a great deal of Russian anti-air assets are completely removed from the field.
Huge respect to Mover, Gonky and Casmo for their opinion and discussion regarding delivery of F-16 to Ukraine. You guys know the best how much this plane will help Ukraine in this conflict with Russia. After listening your talk few times I have to say. God forbid that you meet Russian fighter pilots in the real combat situation! God bless you all.
British test pilot, Dave Best, flew the SU27. He said it was a really excellent airplane with the best engines he had ever flown with.
Sure, but this, is only flight quality feedback... A fighter jet is a weapon, and Dave Best did not test the Su-27 as a weapon. He can suppose the Su-27 is a great dogfighter but what about early warning, counter measures, beyond vision fighting capabilities ? And, huh, the Su-27 is the top russian fighter of the 80s, what about the Su-30 now ? Must be way more effective and dreadful.
I Disagree. Sukhoi make beautiful aircraft, The empire of perverts only seem to be able to make aircraft that can bomb impoverished brown people@@idubzh243
@@Max_Da_G you got it twisted. The su 27 has better kinematics than the two but antique tech
@@Heegooatwhat do you mean antique tech? Have you not heard what Gonky said at all? When he was working as trainer in Malaysia he was going up against Su30s and they were a very capable adversary. The Su35 is at least 10-15 years ahead than the Su30.
@@HW.0029 It looks like he clearly typed out that the SU 27 and its AVIONICS is the antique compared to x,x
Ukrainian F16s will see S500, S400, S350, S300, Tor and Buk SAMs way before they see any SU-35s.
They probably will never know what hit them
Russian air defence is a joke. Take a look at black sea fleet which is half way underwater already
@@VladTaras-my2fy and ukrainians are winning🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@VladTaras-my2fy Why does Ukraine desperately need F16s and more jets in general? Isn't it because the most of jets it had were shot down?
@@dm3199 yeah its hard to admin you are living in failed state. But lets think objectively, what 404-state has archive for 2 years of war? Except losing hunders of thousands of russian solders and prisoners? Doing all posible war crimes?
Love having CASMO there. Please make him a regular like Gonky and Wombat.
In Indian were test-fights of SU-30 and F-16, Result: 11:2 for SU-30!
That was without radars I think
I have to correct C.W. Lemoine at 5:55. It is not mostly Su27 of russian side. Russia don't operate Su27s over Ukraine at all. They operate Su35s and Su30s in CAP operations, as well some MiG31s. But their Su35 fleet is operating since Day 1 of the russian invasion in Ukraine.
They use the Su35 in CAP missions at very high alt(+30.000 ft i assume) and launch R37M + R77-1 missiles at Ukrainian airplanes and break off.(in which they are very successful at)
More missions for the Su35s are doing SEAD(which is less successful from what is believed) Source: Institute for the Study of War and Royal United Services Institute.
Su35 also has some confirmed air kills without suffering losses to enemy airplanes but lost 2 jets by enemy airdefenses(1 at Izium, 1 at Kherson) overall it is a very successful jet.
It is also not so special to fight their old variants like MiG29, Su24, Su25 or Su27s for sure, but the fact that airkills have been achieved while Ukrainian Jets were doing CAP flights deep in friendly airspace against enemy drones trying to hit important facilitys and objects all over ukraine is saddly impressive.
Some airkills are to be believed done by powerful R37M missiles that were fired over a long range and even hit the target.
Kudos to Gonky for his total fairness as always
Love to hear actual experts provided grounded assessments of the situation in Ukraine in regard to the air war.
Would be interesting to see MR Lemoine performing as a fighter pilot in Ukraine and then may be make a summary on his experience in this channel.
Hey, big fan of the channel. I was wondering if you guys would consider doing a reaction video to The Operations Room's Desert Storm The Air War Day 1 video? Getting your perspective on how massive that was would be awesome!
I love that video. It's insane!
@slip6699 Ikr I heard about desert storm when I was a kid but never knew any details other than Iraq losing until I started watching videos about it!
Great comment. Some pilots have 1000 hours and some pilots have 1 hour a thousand times.
For the record. The F-16AM is to replace the Su-27Flankers of type S and P. the P1M and P1SM (not russian updated but Ukraine updated) And P2M is suppose to stay around until all F-16 are delivered.
Honestly, if they could upgrade the Avionics to western Standards and upgrade the missiles to Western ones as well.
And of course either domestically produce or replace the Engines with a western equivalent, the Flanker would make a far more formidable air to air Platform.
And even a better Striker.
The Flanker is an Eagle Equivalent with a higher maneuverability and better slow speed handling, although lower T/W ratio.
Put some AN-APG-70 in there and you'd have a very powerful interceptor/Air Superiority Fighter, with a lot more Endurance than the Viper.
Love the Viper, but the Su-27 is the better design aerodynamics- and Performance-wise, but is badly let down by it's avionics.
@@LupusAries I for one, visits their Su-27's regulary and would also love to see them kept updated instead of replaced.
But when you really get to get up close and personal, you really start to understand why they want to retire the Flankers.
Spare parts is starting to get hard to find for Ukraine, even through they have a decent fleet.
And the flanker does just take too much space to operate, and F-16 does almost fit anywhere, but ofcouse is not suited for runways like the Flanker is.
But in the end with the falcon or not they were planning to retire the flankers togehter with the su-24.
And then only maintain mig-29 and su-25.
Thank you guys for giving the "inside track" on general concepts of warfare that many civilians, including myself, are ignorant of. I read mostly that the Russian/Ukrainian war is a "meat grinder". Victory for either side doesn't look likely anytime soon. It feels like the F-16's given to Ukraine can maybe help on some level, but from your explanation of dealing with Russian SAM's and air defense and Russian warbirds that can reach out and touch the F-16's from further away, the F-16's have to be just a part of a comprehensive plan. I don't have as much knowledge or experience that you guys do, but the F-16's aren't going to be the "tipping point" in the Russian/Ukrainian war. The podcast is great fellas, keep it up. Military history/fighter jet nerds like me love this stuff!
Norway said they’ll donate all 57 of their F16s. That’s over 100 F16s between 3 countries. That’s a game changer versus no aircraft
Actually, Norway has confirmed it will supply 5-10 F-16s. Of the 57, 32 have been sold to Romania. 12 are bound for Draken International aggressor firm, but still awaiting US approval. 2 jets will go to training Ukraine pilots in Poland. The remaining 11 jets are in poor condition and will require major restoration, some are not likely to fly at all. However, there is a small chance that the deal of 12 jets for Draken will not go through. In that case these will probably be offered to the Ukraine. These jets are in good condition and are currently undergoing refurbishment.
It's always great to hear opinions on your channel Mover, it feels like I have heard something that is worth hearing! I'm not sure there are enough channels like this on CZcams that you could run out of fingers counting!
A big part of the F16 advantage for Ukraine is full system compatability with NATO supplied munitions, less kludged work arounds.
Not full, but better yes. They are the MLU version of the jet, they lack a lot of modern features, such as datalink.
@@B.D.E. Yes NATO has munitions that are not compatible with mid-tier f-16, but of the munitions that are supplied they will be fully compatible. Currently, those munitions have some rather makeshift attachment and programing/targeting compromises when fitted to MiG and SU aircraft.
It watched an interview with UK Professor Justin Bronk related to this topic. Gripen was literally built to operate in this kind of environment. It can be dispersed around the country because it can take off from many normal paved roads with very good STOL capabilities and is less susceptible to debris being sucked in from the road at take off and doesnt require much maintenance in addition to fast refueling and rearmament. It has really great EW as well as the Meteor missile with ram jet propulsion. Still it's an extremely difficult situation to do any kind of missions in. Sweden also can't really spare any of the Gripen C versions that we have in my opinion until Gripen E is fully deployed at all our squadrons. I also fear that Gripen or F-16 won't be used to their full potential by the pilots there and will be shot down to easily due to lack of experience of how to operate them tactically with a proper command structure. Looking at the numbers and availability maybe F-16 is the most realistic choice whilst I think Gripen would be the best fighter choice.
Ukrainians have experience on similar jets. That is why they need only 4 months to be trained how to operate them. The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson said that in the past they have been trained on F15 and similar jets and they are familiar with them because they had joint drills with the US Air Force and Allies constantly after 2014.
Why wouldn't Saab donate 2 Gripen to fly under contract with volunteer pilots and a small maintenance crew ? If used effectively, sales would skyrocket.
@@saxonsoldier67 because you can’t just donate 2 planes. It have to be a squadron. Planes are much more than a number. The pilots are trained how to fly in squadron on these planes and different formations. Also maintaining 2 airplanes is not as easy as maintaining 13 or 14 of them. I am talking specifically about the parts supply.
Mate the F-16 have been taking off and landing on highways during exercises back in the early 80's long before the gripen prototype could land on the runway and most of justin bonk talking points are based out of unproven claims from Saab. Lets not even talk about the meteors as the Gripen C is unable to use its full potential anyway.
@@VechniHitove I disagree completely. My post was with contract pilots and maintainers to assist Ukraine while demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the Gripen. A few trucks and a small group of men should be all that is required to set up and maintain a remote operation with the Gripen for several days at a time. Western pilots can work with their squadron or wing, but individual pilots are trained to execute missions using their own judgement within rules of engagement. A Gripen team would necessarily want to cherry pick missions that would highlight the capabilities and strengths of the Gripen. All of these missions would be over Ukraine.
my question about these F-16's is "Who's going to fix them?" Ukraine no doubt has loads of highly capable maintainers of their current aircraft - but there will be so much to learn. not the least that everything on the F-16 is in a different language and alphabet. that's not insurmountable as seen by Greece, Pakistan, Taiwan... but they didn't make the transition while under fire either. also the war makes it more complicated for them to recruit experienced foreign F-16 maintainers. then there's the long logistical tail. this is no slam dunk - it's going to be a slow process
Actually, according to Oryx three or four SU-35s have been downed in Ukraine. Three are supported by photos and video, and I watched the Twitter news as it happened. The fourth is somewhat unclear.
These convos are by far my fav… Versus conversations are the best.. Equipment and tactics
It’s great to get the opinions of these guys, really lends perspective
Esp saying Ukr has Mig-21 says allot, why discuss without knowing the equipment they have.
These F-16s aren't even meant to go head to head with the Russian aircrafts
They're meant to hunt down cruise missiles like the few Ukrainian fighter aircraft still in service have been doing nonstop
the russians apparently went away from ground control to more pilot initiative based tactics I guess you'd call it. I also saw map last year that showed 4 CAP zones that are constantly populated by mig-31 + su-35 in formation constantly. I saw a ukrainian pilot (su-24 driver with the SCALP missiles iirc) talk about being constantly painted by the russian CAP that's always located near the land bridge that operates near the land bridge that connects crimea to ukraine. whatever else is true the mig-31 & su pilots have gained enormous experience in BVR engagements, although only while being in a impregnable position.
Just want to say I really appreciate the radio etiquette you guys have. A lot of other podcasts have way too much talking over each other. This was really nice though
Thanks guys. This was a pleasure to watch and listen to.
The advantage of the F16 is that it can use western weapons. Ukrainian is running out of munitions capable of being deployed from old Soviet aircraft.
People need to remember at the end of the day when that first bullet or missile is fired it’s no longer not about tactics it’s about survival you can be the best trained pilot in the most advanced fighter in the world but you make that 1 mistakes your dead
Ukrainian government announced that during an air crash on August 25th passed away one of their best pilots with call sign Juice. He was one of the training pilots on F16 and was passionate to get on one of these jets. Rest in peace hero!
oh no Juice died!? Damn it.
@@writingrefyes along with two trainee pilots
@@B.D.E. I’m just shocked… thats a huge loss of pilots they need to to mention all around great people
The only air to air combat was in the opening week or two when Russia outran their SAMs...which I suspect they never thought they'd need.
Australia had about 40 F/A-18's plus spare parts that they were willing to offer to Ukraine, but they weren't interested in it, despite the fact that the plane is more suitable to that environment, more rugged and easier to maintain. What's up with that?
Availability and support structure of the F16 throughout europe. There are just a ton of F16’s out there. That’s just my guess.
F-16 pilot will never actually see a Su-35 in Ukraine.😂
I wish "Juice" had a chance to fly the F-16. It was his dream.
I was a volunteer in Ukraine for 7 months. I've been all over Ukraine, all up & down the front. Not one time did I see a helicopter or fixed wing.
Aircraft with humans on board, combat aircraft, they are obsolete over the battlefield. Sitting ducks
Im currently flying with Ukrainian pilots that my country brought in has refugees were hired by my company. Ukrainians train to high standard. These guys are sharp.
The info from training here in DK says the same.
Anders Puck Nielsen did a video recently on F-16s and Ukraine and he pretty much echo's your thoughts on how the F-16 won't really be a game changer in the short or even medium term and not like Ukraine will suddenly have air superiority over the frontline. In the short term the small number they have will probably help guard Ukrainian airspace against incoming Russian cruise missiles - far away from the Russian IADS. But over time, as they build the infrastructure to handle more planes and as they build their own institutional knowledge of using the planes it will culminate with probably one of the strongest peace-time air force in Europe.
Think your missing.... They will run out of ANY Jets soon enough. So they need the F-16. The SU-35 is in limited numbers needs MASSIVE refit after a few hours of flight. Jet on Jet is not happening. Plus be nice to at least be able to fire Good air to air and air to ground missiles...
Someone being realistic, very well appreciated.
Better is the enemy of good enough. A lot of good enough is formidable.
It will be interesting when it comes to arming the F-16.
Id feel ok putting money on the F-16s being checkmate pawns are the quiet guy in the corner, I could see its SEAD capability changing the game.
Not a AF guy but a US Navy Guy.. (30 years) ... from what I have read about these EU F-16s is they are equivalent, equipment wise, to block 52/56 American F-16s... not going to say I know a lot about block numbers vs. capabilities but what does this entail vs the majority of Russian Aircraft?
Well, that unknown "Dude" Dan Hampton actually has 726 combat hours, especially in the "Wild Weasel" role, including 21 recorded Kills on SAM sites and fought in the Gulf War, Kosovo and the Iraq War. So he is actually the most lethal F-16 “Wild Weasel” pilot in American history and also one of America's most decorated former fighter pilots.
And all you did figure out is that he wrote some books. Really?
Are you his publicist?
No. I just used Google's incredible magical abilities.
But maybe Gonky's bad internet connection isn't actually a running gag. 😉@@CWLemoine
@@CWLemoine I think your commenter went a little too hard with the criticism CWLemoine, but he does bring up a valid point. If what he says is true, it does feel like you may have been quick to dismiss Dan Hampton.
Love the vids btw, keep it up!
I stand by what I said.
@@CWLemoine Fair. Since you and Dan both flew F-16's would you consider reaching out to see if he'd come on the show?
I’m not a pilot and know nothing about air to air combat but I’m smart enough to know that the F-16’s they’re getting are not the same F-16’s American pilots fly, and they won’t have the advantages of support that we have. And we know the US has the best pilots in the world and I find it hard to believe Ukrainian pilots are better than Russian pilots.
I was 504th Parachute infantry at Bragg and I loved watching those Apaches in action and love to see my division patch displayed! hooah!
I was ready to comment that you guys must be sleeping through the war but then I realized that CZcams fed me a video from a year ago.
Things have changed LOL
To your guest. Russian pilots have had 3 years of combat experience now so the argument about flights hours etc may not hold true anymore
Dude.
When he said they're junk he's not saying they can't maneuver. He's saying the total package of logistics, dispatch reliability, pilot proficiency etc just isn't there for the 35s.
This is a "Hitler" mindset
I agree with you. These guys showed too much fear. I like those Russian air to air missiles are perfect. I’m sure they’re not
@@steveperreira5850 "I like those Russian air to air missiles are perfect. I’m sure they’re not"
Are you willing to stake your life on that?
I can add, Romania has recently trasitioned to the Viper from Migs.
It took about 4 years to have a fully operational squadron. And that is with pilots trained with Nato standards on *aircrafts* with western avionics, good levels of English and many many exchanges within the alliance.
Sure maybe they will solo in a few weeks, but it's interesting to see how effective they will be at this..
And I've heard that most of them don't speak very much English ..
This is spot on. I spent 10 years crewing the Viper. They won't just take off and start killing MiG's. It's going to take years to deploy them to the max.
it's a point but very underestimated one !! when you are in war this is totally different situation don't compare peace time and bureaucracy and real war situation !!
Doubt that language skills will be a problem. In my experience the vast majority of Ukrainians speak at least serviceable English. They learn it in school for 10 years and are steeped in Western/American media.
To be a fighter pilot in the Eastern block countries you basically had to be a trained engineer. English is mandatory in engineering schools there.
And, to add even more to my this, all pilots in that part of the world need English to talk to air traffic control because unlike Russia, they don’t have the luxury of unrestricted airspace for thousands of miles in any direction. So all military and civilian pilots are required to speak English.
@59thfsaviation79
Yea but that's also what they said about ww2 pilots in new birds but when both sides are churning out pilots and putting them in combat asap all the old training windows go out of the window.
Don’t worry too much. Soon we will see. Things happen faster during wartime
Historical reminder- 100 P40B/C's, Chenaults tactics and volunteer American pilots, few with combat experiance and few ever even flew the P40 really made a difference in a few months operations in China. Motivated pilots with good (Not the best) aircraft and good tactics/weapons can be the difference between losing and winning. I'm a lifetime history student. Not a fighter pilot. But I was a crew chief for 8 years on A7's and A10's. Those Ukrainian pilots have motivation beyond a bunch of mercenaries. Whatever happens, they will be a pain in the ass for the russians......
Do you think Ukraine will send their next generation of pilots through the USA’s undergraduate pilot training course to get them to an F16 input standard?
@ 20:06 👈👈
"Tickerrrrrrrrr."
That's funny!
🤣👍
It seems the best use of the F16 is its ability to give AGM-88s new modes only available on US aircraft. They won’t be able to clear out everything but at least it should help.
The new AGM-88's were just used in combat by navy SuperHornets.
Very good analysis. The only thing that the f16 can use to beat su35 is radar jamming. The f16 have aesa radar while the su35 have pesa. If the f16 cannot jamm the russian radars then they cannot last in the battlefield. Especially given the fact that the will face a strong russian AD and the airports are gonna bombed by kalibrs and cruise missles.
Personally i believe they will manage to shoot dome russian aircraft but they are not gonna be game changers.
C.W, Are You related to Admiral Lemoine from NAVSPECWAR? Thanks for the video.
Actually it would be the F-16 vs the Mig-31 from about 200km away. The Mig can kill the F-16 from that range.
Using what missile?
@@CWLemoine The MIG 31 is Russia's trump card paired with SU 30s,su 35. Its basically a mini AWAC with some big sticks than can touch you from quite the distance.
Quality of flight time is definitely the main factor. Actually, the Russians since the start of the war fly A LOT, like really hours, every day. Do they really learn something from it when they actually don't see no enemy, and don't dare enter perilous regions in Ukraine - I doubt it.
@Mover/@Gonky/@Casmo I really appreciate the respect you guys show for opposition technology. The F-16s that the Ukrainians will recieve are all "A" and "B" variants, albeit they've been upgraded. But, even so, they'll be going up against Russian aircraft firing the hypersonic R-37 Vympel so I'm expecting the F-16s are going to go the same way as the Leopards (which are apparently being withdrawn from the frontline).
Don’t panic, let’s see. Ever heard of electronic counter measures?
There has been one air-to-air shootout of Ukrainian aircraft(S 🙂) against Russian aircraft, where four Ukrainian fighters were shot down in a single air combat, in one day. This was in 2022, at the beginning of the war. Ot was Ukraine's worst air to air defeat.
Who is more determined. Enough said.
Ukraine will use them for a 10 day push over a narrow stretch of line. They will suffer 10 per cent attrition per day, but the goal will be to give the ground forces enough cover to reach the coast.
Has there been any reporting if Ukraine will receive ECM or HTS pods with these jets? SEAD will be quite tough without them. Those are pretty sensitive devices. Don’t want those to fall into hands of the enemy.
I thought the main advantage of the F16 will be to bring a broader array of A to G ordnance, not so much air superiority
cant do A to G without air superiority though..?
Yeah that's exactly it, you don't want to fight BVR with Su35's or 30's with the old radar block 20 MLU's have. Block 70's with D/D3 variants of AMRAAMs could woop their ass (on paper) but they're not gonna get it.
@@Glee73they do it currently with Su27's and mig29's lobbing JDAM-ER at front lines from pretty far back in their own SAM cover, if Russia had actual air superiority they can't.
I think its more of just having a supply line for parts, replacement Frames, and secure training bases.. Mover said it clearly, this is an Airforce of 60-80 active jets, this "could" drive a less aggressive posture. Most of NATO has enough squadrons of planes to be more aggressive, and with block 70 aircraft, NATO could crack the IADN (integrated Air Defense Network) without 5th gen fighters.. (not saying it would be easy, or not cost blood)
@@ashblythe9598 yeah they are getting NATO block 20 MLU hand me downs.. Not something to challenge the IADN, but good training for when they join NATO and start to get some block 50/60 hand me down love.
The performance parameters of su35 have not been lost, nor have they been won in actual combat
@@gregorysmith7736They don't have many S300s anymore, that missile supply is finite
Something Gonky said at around 11:00 really stuck out for me. Autonomy vs the Russian doctrine. At least on the ground, part of the reason Ukraine has been so effective against Russia is because they have long been moving away from the "top down" old Soviet model of "I'm not doing anything until the general tells me to do it." Ukrainian ground forces have been given autonomy and the ability to pivot when needed. If they use these aircraft in the way they've used everything else, it will be a bad day for the Russians.
They were effective when they outnumbered russian forces 5 to 1. These days they have only 2 to 1 advantage and cant do much even though this ukrainian offensive was way better prepared than kharkov one
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t They never outnumbered the Russians. Their army was around 250k people. The Russian army, PMCs, DPR/LPR, etc were pretty much equal in numbers.
Guys you are wrong about russian pilots experience. Russian su35 pilot on private interview actually said many of their su35,su30 pilots already have way more than 1000 combat flights. Some actually do 4 combat flights a day with red bulls etc. Its very naive to underestimate this pilots. They are pretty good.
I think that your analysis is spot-on. You know, it's a real shame that there weren't more Gripens available for Ukraine because those planes are so well-suited to the Ukrainian situation that I believe they'd have made a mich bigger impact than the Falcons will. Maybe they could try to get some out of South Africca because the SAAF holds at least half of their Grpiens in storage at any given time.
Mover gets it again.
With the current performance of the RUaf I genuinely think foriegn operators of Flanker series will perform in them better than the russians.
how will they deal with the Mig-31 lobbing missiles from 100 miles away?
The Russian R37 is designed to hit slow moving targets at far distances that can't turn on a dime to evade, like an AWACS, so their range is about 100 nautical miles, but against a fighter jet, the effective range is dramatically decreased, by at least 20%. If the F16s carry the AIM120D, they will match the R37's range, and even exceed it if they're given the later variants. However, they will most likely get the AIM120C7, and they will most likely play an interception role. Not only this, all jets on both sides fly at exceptionally low altitude in order to avoid SAM sights on both sides, severely decreasing the effective range of the R37. I believe the best case the F16 can be used for is SEAD and the F16s ability to take out targets of opportunity with their advanced HARMs
dodge, as they've already been doing (the R-37s probability of kill is pretty poor at those ranges vs fighters from what ive heard from various telegram channels)
@@immortaldev1489 " If the F16s carry the AIM120D, they will match the R37's range, and even exceed it if they're given the later variants." No. The R-37M has a 300-400km Max range (Depending on speed an Altitude its launched at) with a max speed of Mach 6. The Amram isn't going to match that. I also Highly doubt that Mig-31's would even get close enough to F-16's in the first place. Their job is to fly high, fast and loft missiles off from a long range (Where F-16's Aim-120D's won't be effective) and then RTB. Not Dogfight. Their Interceptors.
@@phill5917 that's only the effective range against slow moving targets that can't defend missiles, with no RWR (like a KC135 or some AWACS planes), a fighter jet can dump their altitude from 60,000 ft to sea level in 20 seconds while pulling 9Gs to defend. Here's an extract from the wiki on the R37M: "The R-37 missile, also known as RVV-BD, is a long-range air-to-air missile with a range exceeding 200 km. The missile's range depends on the flight profile, from 80 nautical miles (150 km) for a direct shot to 215 nautical miles (398 km) for a cruise glide profile."
As you can see, the AIM120D is similar in range to the R37 when the jet firing the R37 is facing another fighter jet. Also speed doesn't mean too much, the AIM54 phoenix could hit mach 5+, that doesn't make it an awesome air to air missile against other fighters, which is why the US developed the AMRAAM
@@phill5917Agreed and one thing is for sure.. If the F-16 gets on close enough to a Mig-31 for a dogfight.... The Mig is doomed.... 😅
Love some Cosmo, but is there any way we could get the guy who runs the growler jams channel on the show?
All the way Brother. Strike Hold!
Excellent video.
We are giving Ukraine our bottom of the barrel F-16s, not giving the pilots the latest tactics, in an area where we do not have air superiority. How is that going to work out?
Integrated air defense system will probably shoot down F-16
I don't think Russian engineers should be dismissed that easily. The aim of Russia is to build cheaper but effective equipment. They won against the Germans in World War 2 with that thinking.
Quantity has a quality all of its own.
Glad they hit on the biggest lesson from Ukraine this far: cheap drones can inflict a heck of a lot of damage and make your enemy rethink their investments in expensive weapon systems.
with all due respect to the 3 pilots. maybe they don’t know that the Su-35 does fly in the current Russo-Ukraine war and already has dozens of kills. Also the Su-57 is participating and has at least 3 kills and so does the MiG-31.
for a better recent comparison, F16s vs Indian SU30s skirmish can be studied in 2019.
You keep talking about the Russian air defense being so overpowered, but the Russian air defense wasn't able to protect Moscow from getting hit by drones multiple times. Doesn't prevent ammunition and vehicle depots from being destroyed by Ukrainian drones on a weekly basis. Last week, they lost a submarine, and a warship was pulled out of commission.
All that is thanks to the Ukrainian tactic of using swarms of drones to deplete the air defense systems of ammunition and then destroy them with himars or neptune.
So, what would prevent the Ukrainians from using the same tactic to protect their fighters?
They could use this tactic of drone swarms to destroy the air defense in a specific area, and then the fighters could come to support the troops.
There is also the question of weather Russia has enough qualified pilots still in service, there have been rumors that they have a serious pilot shortage.
They certainly have plenty of s350 and s400s
Rumors are not facts!
can it survive mig-31 250km away? that bird is ruler of sky imho
Not an expert but it seems like these are not for them to win the air to air war. It should allow them to gain access to the NATO air to ground suite of weapons they need to better support the ground war. Avoiding trading these planes in fights isn't the way forward against a numerically superior force.
US has potential to deliver hundreds of f16s that are being replaced with f35s.
You don’t have to be rocket scientist to realize that ~50 f16s pledged by EU are not going to win war against russia alone
You touched on it briefly, I think that the F16 will open up some tactical options that the Ukrainians don’t have right now, especially with SEAD missions.
IF they can begin to suppress the Russian IADS and gain air superiority over their own territory, that would be a game changer. The question is can they
They can't. No single type of hardware would help Ukraine the way you think. THE RUSSIANS CAN NOW, AT WILL, PENETRATE ANY AIR DEFENSE ON THE PLANET!! Ukraine already has some of the most advanced SAM's in the world and it can't do nothing against extremely fast Russian missiles and cheap, long range kamikaze drones.
F-16 can't change that. No fighter aircraft in the world can change that.
@@Jawzzy Okay, Grandpa, time to take your meds.
They can't
What explodes throughout urkaine once in a few days? Air conditioners?
They've had HARM missiles before and nothing happen. What makes you think simply having F16 will change the result? RUssian ADs are highly mobile like the Pantsir and TOR and will simply turn off their radar and move to avoid the HARMs along with their proficiency in electronic warfare. And ust like that, your million dollar missile was wasted.
It's not the plane
It's the pilot
what is a pilot gonna do against a missile traveling at mach 4
@potatosuc4950 guess you never saw the movie 😂
Wait…..The guest read the article, WTH , rockets won’t shoot down a jet in combat.
But then again I was a ground pounder, but I’m an aviation nerd!
Good feed , Mover
With the inevitable weight growth, John Boyd anticipated, he wanted to increase the wing surface area, to maintain the sustained turn rate. The USAF, did not adapt that suggestion. However the Mistubishi F2, is an upscaled F-16, with larger wings.
yup, YF-16 into F-16A experienced a 25% increase in empty weight. They havent gotten lighter over the years.
I read that it's very much similar to WW1 trench warfare compared to anything else.
Would you say the way the aircraft(s) are flying is reminiscent of WW1?
Not even remotely comparable. Ground war might be WWI style trench warfare, but ground-based air defenses are certainly well beyond WWI capability.
Indian Air Force Flankers always come up top in "dogfights" with F-15s in air exercises with the USAF. So are F-16s better fighters than F-15s? The answer is obviously a no-brainer
This is the equivalent of magazine racing for aviation.
Could usa invent a drone swarm that operates together to suicide into income jet, helicopters, missiles, and shells to protect cities or military facilities.
"Durability" is probably a reference to airframe lifespan.
At its most fundamental, an aircraft is a weapons launch platform. If you can get a lot of jets in the sky and they all launch their missiles, then the aircraft becomes useless (depending on the guidance needs of the missile). At that stage, it's all down to the performance of the missile.
What missiles will Ukraine be launching and how do they compare (guidance, distance, speed, etc) compared to what Russia is throwing up there? I'm mostly thinking AA missiles if we're still thinking of F-16s going up against SU-35s.
And that's assuming only BVR combat. I can't see Ukraine using their limited supply of aircraft to operate within and engage within a 20 square mile area as the sky could be full of SAMs, friendly or otherwise.
What roles might the F-16 play in Ukraine?
High speed, low altitude bombing runs? High altitude CAP? Wild weasel?
If you've underestimated your enemy,you have already lost 😢
Casmo, the Ghost of Kiev is 100% real. His name is Sam Hyde.
😂
I heard mentioned that it was much more effective shooting cruise missiles and rockets down air-to-air than from the ground and this was one reason the Ukrainians wanted F16s, to defend their cities. Haven't seen that one much in Hollywood. How true is it?
Yep you're right, primarily to aid their existing air defense, Older/newer AIM-9's and AMRAAMs are available in huge numbers compared to AD missiles and relatively cheaper, Maybe they'll attempt SEAD/DEAD missions but I doubt it'll be that effective, primarily due to short term training they're gonna get, it's better than what they have, shooting down VKS front line fighters is unlikely, the radar is pretty old, first shot will be from a Su30/35 regardless.
F-16 Viper does not equal automatic win. The pilots have to have experience flying these jets, to know what the jet will do and what the jet will not do, maneuvers like the Flanker are a great fighter jet.