What Walgreens and Nvidia tell us about Analyzing Stocks
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- čas přidán 25. 07. 2024
- The market continues to see big swings with well-known stocks like Nike and Walgreens dropping over 20% in a single day. The analysis and opinions on just about every stock often contradicts one another and makes it hard for investors to know what information is useful and what information they should ignore. In this video we break down a couple of examples with Nvidia (NVDA) and Walgreens (WBA) to show how stock analysis can be confusing and the 3 lessons we can take away from it. Also, a quick update on why I was out for the last 2 weeks and what I had been dealing with!
00:00 - We’re back after 2 weeks!
02:55 - Nvidia (NVDA) criticisms
06:34 - 2 Different Walgreen (WBA) opinions
10:50 - What can we learn from this?
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It feels good to be back!!
You look great!
Not a day over 30.
Hehe .. your humour is still intact.
My family member experienced the exact same medical condition; recovered to an active lifestyle; experienced another episode; and seems to be doing well. Regular life; hiking; working are all back to normal.
You’ll do well & this will be in your rear view mirror soon enough.
Thanks, yeah I hoping it was a one-time (or very infrequent) thing
Glad that you’re feeling better 🎉😊
@cookiejar01 thank you!
Having Transparency is admirable because you are willing putting yourself up to be judged by others.
Something I’ve been told from someone older than me and who is retired. He said for his portfolio at least that he does not care if he outperforms the market, he just buys good quality companies at good prices and never looks back.
I think it goes against itself, if you try to always outperform the market you probably won’t, but if you focus on what you are accumulating over time and making sure it’s of high quality then you probably will outperform the markets
No joke.. I needed the NVDA update & wise words .. thank-you!
Glad you’re back and feeling better…great insights (again).
Thanks!
Glad you're on the mend.
I was diagnosed with BPPV in mid 2020. Long story suort, after about a year of shit, another doc said that was a misdiagnosis.... I had anxiety and panic. All good now, knowing what you're dealing with lets you knock it on the head.
Thank you, that sucks. Something similar happened to my wife years ago (diagnosed with one thing, ended up being another) and it was a pain
Great to have you back! So glad you're doing better! 💪🏼
Thank you, much appreciated!
welcome back !!!!
great video, thanks for sharing !!!
Thanks!
Good video. Thx for the info.
No worries, thanks!
glad you are feeling better!
Thank you!
Hey Matt!
Glad you’re starting to feel better!
Looking forward to seeing more quality content from you.
Thank you!
I'm sorry you got sick, glad to know that you're doing better! I read some stock reviews, and sometimes watch CNBC to get an overall picture, and hear different points of view. But in the end I manage my portfolio according to my age, strategy and goals without the noise. I really resonate with your point that we compete with ourselves, I might under perform the market but I'm doing so much better than my bank "professional" financial advisor ever did 😂. Take care!
Thank you - I do the same, I like listening to a bunch of different perspectives then ultimately go with my own
@@mattderron filtering out noises takes a lot of practice and discipline.
Welcome back mate!
Thank you!
I was on vacation and thus out of town so I didn’t realize you had Vertigo. I’m glad you are on amends and feeling better. Well it was good to see your latest video.
I had a nice gain and took some profits some time ago. I had road the roller coaster with it and when it went back up I decided to sell. Wish I would have only sold half. Not too long ago I bought it back with my tail between my legs knowing I missed out on a lot of growth. I think Nvidia will continue to grow and be a big player in tech.
Well I hope your health continues to improve.
Thanks! Nvidia I think will continue to be a tough one to gauge in terms of "when do I sell." I'm a firm believer it's always harder to know when to sell a winner than when to sell a loser
Thanks for the timestamps.
My ex wife had that same issue and almost fell down a flight of stairs… so glad you’re heading in a better direction friend..
Thank you, I appreciate it!
Good you see you again man. No investment really matters if there is no health to enjoy it. All the best.
Well said, thank you!
Welcome back friend!! I've invested my hard earned money in some dogs over the years but thankfully I never considered a loser like Walgreens.
Same for me lol
Insightful video Matt. Do you have any videos that you've done for people who are newer to this game, such as myself, about HOW to do the research on stocks that might be of interest? What factors are you looking at? What data is the most important? A video about how to effectively do the research would be very helpful. Thanks!
Thank you! I don't think I have like a "step by step do this" type of video. But I have a whole playlist of Stock Analysis videos where I'm going through companies, or their earnings reports, etc. So if you look at the "Stock Analysis and Reviews" playlist on my channel there's a ton of stuff there that I went through for many companies.
This also demonstrates that P/E isn't everything. Value traps exist and an elevated P/E is sometimes justified.
There's also more than the PE. Cash flows are very important too and there's a ton more in there to analyse.
For sure, whether you're using P/E or P/CF or whatever method - they never tell the whole story. A company's growth story needs to be taken into account, as well as other things that drive (or hinder) their business.
Glad to see you back Matt, and ignore the losers posting crap, your current portfolio will smash it, you keep refining and making it more solid so you will catch up with index and overtake it
Thanks! I feel good about the group of companies I have now, obviously time will tell to see how it does. Agreed about the people who like to comment negative stuff, I keep showing it though because everyone will deal with it in their own lives probably. Good reminder to ignore them and focus on what you're trying to build
Your videos are awesome
Thank you!
Glad you’re doing better
Thank you!
Had vertigo once and when you have it you don’t know if it’s going to get better. I would rate it as a hard sell also. Glad you’re on the mend.
Thanks, this is totally true. That first day I had it I was genuinely worried I’d never feel normal again. That’s how bad it was
I've had vertigo like that. Even the slightest movement would send the world spinning, it was wild.
Yup, it was terrible
Welcome back Mr. Kotter!
🥉
Matt, are those articles you showed from Seeking Alpha? If so, do you think SA is worth the membership for individual investors like us?
Yes they are...I think Premium is worth it for certain people (if you're researching companies / stocks mostly) because you get unlimited articles, transcripts, etc. Which is what I use it for a lot personally.
I did a full review of it a while back with pros and cons and who it makes sense for here if you're interested: czcams.com/video/GxH71RI0ETs/video.html
@@mattderron thanks, I will check it out!
Again, you're exactly right Matt. Wish I could sit down and talk to you. I'm getting very wealthy with this type of approach.
That's awesome John! I put a bunch of different things in this video - which part / approach is working for you?
Matt - glad to hear you are feeling better. BPPV is absolutely miserable. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone
I totally agree with your view that investorsshould make their own opinion on a stock. To help me make the opinion mine, I find a notebook a useful tool for stock evaluation. Writing down the fundamental metrics for the company and its competitors/sector as well as your outlook on the company’s strengths and weaknesses. Then I put my conclusions into writing on whether or not to buy or sell that stock plus my action. Then, months later, I can look back and review my actions. Was I right or wrong? What did I miss? WTH was I thinking?
First of all thank you, I appreciate it. Regarding your process with the notebook, I love it. I really think the best way for each of us to learn is going back to our previous analysis and seeing how it turned out. You learn so much by doing that IMO
I got this stock at $29 a share , thinking about dollar cost averaging down with selling cash puts, your thoughts?
For me and what I look for, Walgreens is not a buy. I don't know what the future is for that company, so it's impossible to know if it's coming back or not. Just my opinion
Glad that you are doing better. The most important thing is your health. All the money in the world is literally useless if you are not healthy to enjoy it. Hoping you will get back to 100% normal so that you can enjoy life!!!
I have repeated this many times, everyone is different and each has their own perspective on which are going to be the best stocks. Nobody knows for sure how those stocks will perform. So, each of us should do what we think is right for ourselves. No one has a perfect track record. You just hope your winners will exceed your losers and in the end you come out positive. And if people cannot handle the ups and downs, just invest in index funds (even though those will have ups and downs, too). Through many years of investing I have winners and losers, and have been fortunate enough to have more winners and losers. Good luck to all.
Agreed, thank you!
Well Here you are! 🙂
Missing the ytd portfolio performance update :(
June update will be Wednesday!
I hope this doesn't occur again, Matt, and glad you're feeling better
Thanks!
As a side note, I am kind of concerned about the new CEO at Vanguard, Thoughts?
I hadn't seen that - what concerns do you have about it?
Apple chips is highly depends on Taiwan! so no Apple too?
Yes they would be too
Hi sir can you make a video about walmart and there dividend?
I was planning to talk about Walmart again (I sold in January and it has done very well since lol) but was there something specific about the dividend that you had a question on?
The problem with Nvidia is it’s valuation is $3t and it’s growth rate the past year plus has been incredible and is slowing albeit still strong. It could reach $4t if things go great but realistically anyone buying at these levels will be shaken out by the near term volatility which likely puts pressure on stock. I’m only day and swing trading it now because I think at $120 the risk the reward isn’t as appealing as it was before it broke $1000.
For sure, at some point it's just too big to sustain the growth. I just don't know what that point is. My original idea when I bought it was....it's probably not a 5x investment anymore in the medium term...but it'll likely outpace the market for at least a few years and then let's see. So far it's done better than that in a short period of time.
I just thought it was funny because almost all of the same criticisms were there in 2021 and it ended up being a 5x gainer anyway.
I sold my largest position at the time, nvidia, in 2020 at a decent gain because of bad advice. I figured, I’m new stocks, only several years experience, this guy has been doing it for 20 years. So I listened. Huge regrets, don’t be like me. Trust your gut.
One of the stocks I bought with the proceeds was Walgreens 🥴
How crazy! I think we all have stories like these at some point in our journey though. Thanks for sharing!
The only reason I invested in nvda in 2021 , was because Pelosi bought in 😅
Well apparently she bought more last month! lol
Bro I bought WBA calls for 2026 😂 deep in the red lol
Oh no! 😂 At least there's still a lot of time. You never know
AI, or whatever they sell under those letters is mostly hype, but we still believe in it. AI is not intelligence but machine learning which is branded more sexy way.
Agreed on machine learning - Apple has been calling it that for years but it's not viewed as exciting as AI. In terms of underhyped or overhyped I'm of the opinion that we don't really know what it will become so I don't worry about it too much. I see the possibilities (and the amount of investment) but only time will tell what actually comes to fruition.
All the investing chat forums are spammed with mixed opinions. I believe most of people are being influenced by rumors without any reality.
Agreed, I think folks are looking for information and probably trusting it more than they trust themselves
@@mattderron a tip for future video; what percentage the private investors are among pro investing companies? And how are we manupulated by false or twisted truth. I'm guessing private investors are pretty easily following or fooled by positive news and too positive target price information.
rule of thumb is to follow politicians. Does Nancy buy WBA? Does Nancy buy NVDA?
This is funny, but a lot of truth to it. I'll just say I was extremely happy when I found out that Pelosi added another $1 million worth of my largest holding to her portfolio last month 😂
7:41 and that is the huge risk investors have to face when a company cut their dividend
🤣
AMD and Intel can’t compete with Nvidia they’re the market leader for a reason they make the best stuff by far.
Agreed!