Geopolitics AD 2024: Why Is The World In Chaos?
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- čas přidán 27. 12. 2023
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I like the old background music a lot. Maybe bring it back? It was quite iconic. The perfect undertone...
Iraq and Afghanistan were definitely not a bad decision, as we took out the 3rd largest military buildup, if not for operation iraqi freedom this army would now be supplying our enemies. Don't be so quick to dismiss America. No one here is afraid of you
@@trentsuveges7622 no? Afghanistan was pointless, the situation is right where you came in plus hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians dead, and the chaos in Irak led to ISIS and it's fallout in the region plus an jihadi resurgence all over Africa. Those were absolutely catastrophic, idiotic, egoistic decisions. It's absolutely f'in disgusting and your statement shows your intellectual capacity which frankly is reason for worry.
Your incredibly wrong on multiple points
1.) America didn’t invade those regions as an judge but because lybia was killing its citizens and Iraq 2nd and 3rd highest officials said they were building nuclear weapons. And then the 1st highest official said he was
2.) The world under the Soviet Union would be vastly different a dictator would be the new normal and putting down civil protest gets expensally worse
Short answer: West was enabling China in last few decades and ignoring Russia in last decade. As result Axis of Evil grow, when West was entangled in petty disagreements over misguided US politics in Middle East.
One of the classiest channels on YT. Informative but not stuffy. I rarely do this but this channel deserves more love.
Word
I like the production and the level of detail but I dislike the obvious bias.
In one of the videos the creator said something like “we waited as long as possible until we had better news, but with a heavy heart we regret to inform you russia has made gains”
like wtf, don’t hide news and wait until you see something you like! what else are you hiding and distorting to something you like? I want to hear about what happened unfiltered so I can make my own judgements.
meh.. just repeating the official line isnt he though? No suprises is how you like it?
Do u expect "unfiltered" news? Please offer an example. Mate there is no unfiltered news. Given the YT platform and the American dominance this is a legit channel.@@azoury123
@@azoury123 He waited until better news came, but when that better news didn't come, he presented reality as it was. That's what I take from your comment.
As much as it makes sense for the US to lean into the current situation, I understand American frustration with many European states. Things like the EU promising 1 million artillery shells in 2023 but only delivering ~300 thousand shows that many European leaders are not taking the threat seriously.
........or they know something that we on the ground don't know and are getting their own houses in order before that "something" (which we don't know) occurs. Things only look irrational if you don't know the rationale.
Europe has a serious problem with pet projects eating hundreds of millions of Euros and they near universally consider their militaries a waste of money because the threats are so far away from their doorstep. when the USSR was dividing Germany in half places like France, west Germany, Belgium and Italy all were worried and took the threat seriously so they had much larger military programs but they decided to rest on their laurels after the collapse of the USSR and thought that they were never going to be challenged again.
now you see only those who are neighbors with Russia taking the threat seriously with Finland and Poland being some of the Leading "western" nations in military capabilities in the region and mostly former eastern bloc nations being the only ones to hold up their end of the bargain.
at this point I think this might cause some tensions between Central and western Europe as former USSR states begin to feel like they are going to get left high and dry being used as "buffer states" existing only to put distance between Russia and the western states.
@@dominuslogik484 europe has a serious problem with corruption. Look at Chancellor Scholz.
The scandal around wirecard is gigantic, its about billions of euros, just one month before election they halted investigations. Andreas Scheuer, german minister of traffic, has fcked up hundreds of millions of tax payer money for projects where EVERYBODY TOLD HIM ITS NOT POSSIBLE, but he still did it. Just today the german supreme court ruled that it wont further pursue the lawsuit surrounding his misdeeds.
Europe is ripe with corruption, I say it once more. RIPE.
If we can bring down russia in this war, it will be a true marvel. Not because europe cant, but because are politicians are so god damn CORRUPT that they wont do anything in service of the public. They only cater to their own damn desires and that of their industrial lobbyists.
Europe gives almost everything we currently have. We're far from ready living 80 years without a war.
Yeah, woke Europe is relying heavily on the US for support. Ukraine has tried that and now its economy, population is ruined. In my opinion, the best case scenario would be for Europe/EU fully support Ukraine with much more equipment and funding to deplete the Russian military whilst freeing up the US to focus entirely on China.
This is one of the most informative, neutral and realistic analyses of the current world state i have seen since ever. Thanks. Really enjoyed it. Journalism top form
This Chanel ain't neutral though is it 🙄
“Neutral” 😂😂😂
Well I would say informative and realistic but definitely not neutral
Corrupt American politicians are a very big problem here in USA 🇺🇸, both parties are terrible.
The reason for both parties is too shut the government down on their citizens.
every government is corrupt these days..reveals a lot about humanity
RFK Jr 2024!
Joe Biden!!! Is responsible
@@briancanfield5658 Not solely
I never bought "the world was mostly at peace after WW2" narrative. Most of Africa and south Asia were engaged in countless conflicts. They only reason they did not matter was due to the fact it did not involve directly Western or Soviet countries. It only looks chaotic because now these conflicts are involving the West so now they can not ignore them.
That's fair, but even those wars were pretty low scale compared all things considered. If you take out Vietnam and Korea and a what many call the "African World War" it was relatively peaceful. Many of thos conflicts weren't the fault of America but the remnants of colonialism and ethnic or political division
Now compare those conflicts to WW2, and they don’t even hold a candle to the scale or causalities of that war.
Sure the numbers and candle analogy holds but also for a very different reason.
During ww1 and ww2 besides the western powers, their colonies had to go to war too on their side and resources were just extracted from those countries with utter disregard to colony populations. This in turn prolonged the wars, causalities and destruction. Its easier to fight a 6 year world war when 50 other countries are your colonies.
Situation is quite different now.
I did but post say 2001 the only constant now seems to be war.
Ongoing Wars: Israel-Hamas war, Myanmar civil war, Russian invasion of Ukraine, War in Sudan. So we have 4 wars currently ongoing. Not to mention the previous wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Azerbaijan etc.
@EatMyShortsAU There's only a couple of inter state wars going in rn. Civil Wars there are a few more but still
as a fin, i would bet that finland would not hesitate to defend estonia. not helping out would be too short sighted for us, since it is obvious that in this scenario russia would defeat all its' neighbors one by one
The problem is that this would have to be done in an unfavourable geographical situation, without strategic depth, with a real risk of losing a large part of the military potential. Poland or Finland could enter the war, but they might be inclined to launch offensive operations in their respective directions to tie up Russian forces. However, they would inevitably face nuclear threats.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes then everyone dies. Nuclear acts wont be ignored by US or China in all 3 scenarios mentioned in the video.
You honestly think Russia will invade a NATO country next instead of say Moldova? If so you got rocks in the heads, this is just a phys ops by the channel creator to get more funding for Ukraine.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes I would still argue the case of mutual defense since both the estonia and finland can close the gulf of finland quite tightly and because air force doesn't have to respect the geography the same way armies need to. The logistics of crossing over the gulf of finland would be a risky one, especially since there are so few suitable ports in estonia, but i'm guessing it would be doable if needed.What comes to nuclear weapons, as a citizen of a (new) nato member country, i feel that the nukes play less and less a significant role in these conflict scenarios. Anyway, awesome video once again!
@@TheKekkoslovakiai dont think anycountry directly joins helping estonia. But sure maybe 10.000 fin volunteers went there to fight against russia if they dont collapse within weeks.
As a turkish i know russia is huge threat for us since 1500s they took all turkic countries and humiliated ottomans. However i dont think many turks volunteered for ukraine.
But of course in case of russian invasion on turkey or finland these countries fight to death.
Stalin threatened turkey many times before and after ww2. Thanks to finnish resistance and operation barbarossa they didn't attack turkey. And later we joined nato in a condition sending korea 10.000 troops.
Back in 2008 I saw a documentary or docu-drama called “The World Without Us” depicting the effects of the US becoming isolationist. Back then it was a piece of fiction, a thought puzzle for people interested in foreign affairs and the consequences of policy. We are now living the reality.
A world where the US isolates its self would force EU countries to combine their military powers together, in other words, they would likely be forced to take that role, which they've got the economy, manufacturing capabilities, skill set to do it but lack of need to do it, but the US isolating its self would be a massive incentive for Europeans in the EU to get their act together, after all, political will and direction changes on world events, just like the EU came about after the second world war.
But in truth, the US won't isolate its self for one simply reason, political and economic benefits to the US, the US isolating its self would actually hurt US political and economic interest, after all, the US doesn't have all these army bases around the world out of the goodness of their heart.
Much will depend on the results of the upcoming presidential election.
@@chrismoiser6477 Whoever gets in their, 1. It's 9 months away, believe me we don't have 9 months. 2. China is mass producing missiles. 3. Democrats also have flood us with a whole lot of Muslims since, 90s just a whole lot more since 12 till now. We are a Republic, its a contract as how the Constitution we are able to keep, because of the Declarations of independence We Americans have let them all overstep
4. More from illegals from the south and South America and our borders. Here everyone calling us white supremacy or whatever when their is more of them now, how long before they decide to call for White Genocide 5. UK is overflowing with Muslims everywhere now, like look around at Sweden. 6. Ukraine and Russia. 7 Israeli and Muslims. 8. Iran, and seriously, it's just a great big Shitshow honestly. 9. Then African its just a crap.
Just get right enjoy what you can, because it won't look the same within 2 year anyways. As we all knew that the Boomers going out would never leave us with anything, they were bent on destroying everything before they left this place anyways look, Putin, Our options both for POTUS, KC, and China leader they are all Boomers all 4 Powers is Boomers they said long ago, they'd leave us nothing well they're keeping that promise.
@@paul1979uk2000 whats that age old adage? "History repeats itself" or something similar. The USA has been isolationist before. This new project in post ww2 europe has been successful. they have been living under our nuclear umbrella for decades. That was part of the deal. They stop bickering and instead of funding their militaries to fight each other, they can focus on innovation and the economy while the US stands guard and takes on the military burden. They do NOT have the capactiy that we have to prepare and fuel a war. They gave that up when the USSR fell, naively. Its obvious they are learning from that short sighted policy, and the world better be grateful that the USA didnt follow suit and get complacent in a post USSR world the way Europe did.
Great way to explain the world at this moment in time. The use of mapping and picture/flags to explain the different tension/war in the different areas of the world is great. It was easier for me to visualize and have a better understanding of todays reality.
Great job, first video, I am impressed.
The issue here for the West is twofold:
1) Fractuous internal politics have really crippled any long term geopolitical planning capacity. Especially within the US but also within the EU
2) Europe's military impotence makes it hard for Europeans to defend themselves should war happen and make America less keen on keeping the alliance system together. I think informed Americans know in their bones that Europe won't and/or can't help us if things go down in East Asia with China. We'll be forced to solely rely on the UK, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. With perhaps aid from Australia, New Zealand and maybe India as well. So it makes it hard to care about helping Europe when they won't or can't reciprocate the help because of decades of letting their militaries corrode. The only European country we can rely on is the UK
You can't compare Europe with the US in terms of military. The only threat to Europe since the second world war was/is Russia.
One luxury the US has that Europe doesn't have is its position. But the US can't possibly understand what it's like to have a vastly stronger country right next to them. The US has never been invaded or fought for its very existence like so many countries did in Europe during WW2. They've never had their cities demolished to rubble. Most European countries have seen enough of war and doesn't want to send their soldiers to half the world away when we are under threat from Russia. Especially when you live close to their borders.
I'm from Sweden and we've had several Russian planes and subs close to our borders. Wasn't too long ago when 2 Russian fighter jets armed with nuclear warheads was spotted right outside swedish airspace. And we're so far not in NATO. So why should we send the few men we have to the other side of the earth?
@@1991beachboy That’s not entirely true.
We were invaded by Britain in 1814… which was over 200 years ago.
Japan managed to snag a couple of islands off the Alaskan archipelago… that’s gotta count for something… right?
Pancho Villa attacked the capital of New Mexico in the 1910s…
Dude Poland is building its military up like crazy
@@chrissjduebochsjd3120 because Poland is next, not the Baltic states
@@chrissjduebochsjd3120 It's like there are two Europes , Old Europe and the Intermarium. Poland and the Intermarium are arming. It's interesting they are not receptive to Muslim immigration like old Europe was.
As for U.S. fractious politics .... the problem is very real as the world sees with the hold on Ukraine funds.
Another thing that is rarely mentioned along with the Chinese de-population is the Western De-population as well. Italy, Germany, USA, UK. Also US allies in Asia South Korea, Japan.
We really need to find a way to encourage Europeans to have more children. We should aspire to 2 billion Europeans, and to do that we will need the bread basket of Europe (Ukraine).
@@andrewharris3900как будто у вас в недостатке еды проблема. Мне кажется наоборот хорошие условия жизни нас и погубили.
@@foss9455correct
@@andrewharris3900 Then it's important to make sure the bread basket of Europe is in the EU
The US’s population is still growing strongly, unlike China and many European countries.
War is became normal this days
Looking at the comment section I can see how people is fed with bunch of information, thoughts about war
Everyone is talking about future war, like it’s a videogames
First it becomes an idea, then with enough amount of focus it becomes reality
Sadly it’s a whirlpool, where is no escape now
Noting to stop it(but there is solution)
Therefore focusing on wars will bring wars
To me ( a young gen z person from a country brutaly occupied during WWII) war lives on through family trauma, mostly conn eyed to food and money, and even I am affected by it
womp womp
@@sheikhmusa8442fr lmao
Having studied Nuclear Battlefield within the US defense establishment, I would say the tacit understanding is nuclear weapons will not be used unless close allies or the homeland is invaded. Putin's continued statements about a nuclear Russia are interpreted as do not strike within Russia or the nuclear weapons will be deployed. The American restrictions on the Ukrainians are specifically done to prevent Russian nuclear escalation.
And such understanding may be treated as an asset by the Russians. In the event of war, e.g. Russia entering the Baltics - NATO starting offensive operations on other fronts, as Russia has non-defensible borders, might be much more effective deterrent. But this mechanism, as you describe, lets Russia pick the arena of confrontation, where they actually stand a chance. It would be much better for Poland or Finland to engage Russians in Karelia or Belarus, instead of defending Estonia on a tiny piece of land without strategic depth. All this creates significant security issues.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes U are underestimating the strategic importance of the baltics, the air superiority of Nato works best when they are supported by Navy. In case of a war, it is easier to take down the invading lines in the baltic area, take out Kaliningrad and move from there within Russia/Belarus.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes That is exactly why the cold war was dominated by proxy conflicts.
@@GoodTimesBadTimesAny NATO partner would be considered the homeland in this scenario.
Interstate peace might be a new constant in post-war Europe, but I wouldn't universalize that. In Africa and Asia there were many wars during all this period. And in the americas we haven't had real wars since well before the 1940s. So that is a rather European vision
I think the reason why there are no real wars in the Americas anymore is because of the extreme power imbalance between neighbors. Nobody is going to start a war with Brazil over territory because Brazil is much more powerful than all of its neighbors but doesn't have any interest in the people or resources of their neighbors either so its seemingly balanced by its imbalance. nobody really believes they could gain anything from aggression and they all stand to lose everything if they tried it.
Not sure there were that many interstate wars not done as proxies to the superpowers at the time. The Middle East, yes. Africa, mostly civil wars supported by either superpower except for South Africa’s dealings in Angola? South America saw the Falklands war but that was limited in scope.
Europe is in decline thanks to deindustrialization by USA policy now Asia is the future
Europe is one of the most conflict-heavy regions on earth due to cultural diversity. "Peace" and "Europe" are rarely terms that should be used together.
@@LaFonteCheVi lmao Europe is the most conflict heavy region when the middle east and Africa exist 😂 there have been entire centuries in Europe devoid of major wars but Africa and the middle east are literally defined by warlords and death
Looking forward to your videos next year and a Happy New year to you and to the person reading this.
May you have a prosperous and peaceful year wherever you are!
And let's hope that humanity has enough sense not to detroy itself.
Thank you so much 😊
With Peace Love and Humanity For Our Entire World 🌏🌍🌎♥️
Nice video essay. Would have been nice if you had added the perspective of Japan and Australia as well. They factor in for the upcoming issues in East Asia.
This is one of the best videos I've seen on geopolitics in a long time. Relatively unbiased as well. Very well done.
its well designed, and i'd say its unbiased to a degree. But ill also say he's either in denial, or ignorant of NATO, the Euro aspect of it all.
NATO military forces have been training in all manner of combos for years, if not decades now. (pseudo example: Spanish, Greek, German, and Estonian Army forces meeting up in Poland to do military hasty defense drills. with UK and USA observers/advisers for AAR)
@@Gizziiusa The problem is not that our European soldiers are not trained well, the problem is that our militaries are absolutely tiny and we have absolutely no stockpiles to fight a war. Neither the UK, France, Germany or any western-European nation is even close to ready for fighting a full scale war. Finland, Poland and Ukraine are the only major countries taking their defense seriously.
@@eirikreigstad3649 never underestimate how fast it all ramps up if it comes to that. Look how fast the USA turned on a dime post Pearl Harbor.
And modern, developed countries are masters of it.
cmon, ya know the deal per Sun Tzu...appear weak.
Speculation=mental masterbation.
@@eirikreigstad3649 y'all should've tried to assimilate Turkey but you're to proud or racist to do that, or because they're muslim? Europeans have no one to blame for their mistakes except themselves, even the US managed to bring Saudi arabia, japan, south korea close to them, europeans simply too proud, racist to know that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and voila, by alienating Turkey for too long even tho they reached out for you, of course they will choose another friends, like the middle east, USA and Russia, if the Europeans wanted to, Turkey and Russia would've been very close allies, you created your own circle, now live with circumstances, not even Russia would cause troubles if they knew eastern europeans will die to fight for western europe
I think there are two main factors:
1. Afghanistan and Iraq wars. The US could interfere wth many conflicts and probably would had these two conflicts not been so messy and painful.
2. Proliferation of military capabilities and technologies. It's just easier nowadays for any random milita group or non-state actor or whoever to get their hands on weapons. Iran will fund it. Russia could fund it. Drug money could fund it. It's just easier than it used to be, more people are in positions to conduct military operations than before.
The first motive is due to the US thinking it could reshape the world at will after the end of the cold war.
To point #2: The proliferation of weaponry is true and available, but still not on the scale of American military power. These powers are still small, uncoordinated (generally), and inexperienced. While worldwide wealth has led to this proliferation, there's still plenty of arms controls in place to prevent the most advanced arms from getting into just anyone's hands...
your point number 2 is definitely a major factor in everything. most of the major players in geopolitics got comfortable with proxy wars and have proliferated weapons that otherwise would be impossible for non state actors to get a hold of. the thought of a terrorist cell having access to Anti-ship missiles, combat drones and missiles capable of shooting down high flying aircraft would have been insane to people back in 2003-2008 but today its considered pretty much widely expected.
Afghanistan was really the canary in the coal mine on this upcoming era when the US supplied Stinger missiles to the region, the US was definitely not the first to ever do something like this but it was definitely the tipping point showing what was to come.
Post-WW2 the USA was bribing everyone to NOT FIGHT (ala Bretton Woods). Now its no longer feasible to maintain these bribes so a more selective system of bribes/infrastructure will be built to maintain our need for precious metals and semiconductors.
I think to (everyone now) surprise, wars won't be as easily waged due to the fact that less people are going to want to die over nothing. Especially as technology progresses, and more technology becomes available to lesser of fortunate people. More and more people are gonna want to choose to live their life relatively peacefully, rather than running around with Mpads and machine guns, over causes that will never be fully understood or fulfilled anyway. And when you look at the United States professional military structure, that's exactly why the US gets stronger and stronger. And eventually all these holy wars and wannabe war lords will have less and less cannon fodder available for their causes. So as I was saying in the very beginning, I think world peace is around the corner. Like 2100's, if people living now were able to get a sneak peek into what life will be like in 100 years from now, we would all be really surprised. A lot of people predict more wars and more destruction and more fighting for world dominance. But I think as more time goes on, fighting someone else's war will become a meaningless dead end job that people just don't wanna do. Using religion to get cannon fodder motivated for their wars just won't have as much energy. And trying to use money to get broke cannon fodder motivated just won't have as much energy. Btw America is here to stay.
Happy New Years everyone. good luck to all peoples of the world. May we all be spared the horrors of war.
Very good analysis and report. Thank you!
We are living in truly interesting times. For us in Africa (Nigeria in my case), the geopolitical turbulence and shifts have always been happening but it is still surprising. We will all make it. I am sure.
Most of the countries that won’t make it are in Africa. Without an international, US enforced protection of maritime shipping, they will struggle to even feed themselves.
Yah I’m sure the people killed in those wars will make it too.
How's it there internally with the Christian south and Muslim north
@@lukewarm6369 Things with insecurity are bad but not largely due to religious tensions, I assure you. There are extremists on both sides but it is not so black and white. Christians, in the largely Mulsim north, are victims of islamic bandits and terrorist but the majority of the victims tend to be Muslims. Even in the largely Christian south, violent groups tend to target Christians and Muslims indiscriminately. Overall, our country tends to adopt a more secular view with regards to religion and politics mainly because we have no other choice and it's the only way to maintain civic nationalism here. Plus, thankfully, our armed forces, which has a slight Muslim majority, has been doing a decent job of pushing back islamic terrorists and maintaining neutrality in terms of religion or tribe, but they need to do more to reduce insecurity.
@@baneofbanesthis comment made zero sense
You have outdone yourself with this piece of accurate, logical and informative content.
This video and indeed this channel deserves more attention. Very well done.
True. Leaving a comment for the algorithm so more people can see.
Sorry to be that guy, but the very first sentence about Europe being at war. No.
Ukraine is at war.
Ukraine = Europe, is wrong.
Ukraine = One country in an arbitrary geographical region which we call 'Europe' is at war, would be more accurate.
If you say the first one (Ukraine=Europe) it sends children and Americans down all sorts of incorrect routes, and they come to all sorts of crazy conclusions. And then they rear-blast these errors all over the internet.
When we say 'Europe' we need to be careful, because there are a couple of understandings for that word.
There is political Europe, which may be understood as 'all westernized Europe, including UK and Switzerland'. Or just as the EU.
There is also geographical Europe which includes Ukraine, contested parts of the Balkans and parts of Turkey. Even Georgia too, iirc.
Europe is not at war, one constituent country of a randomly bordered region which we call 'Europe' is. Same was as a Canadian or a Mexican is technically "American". But still not American in the other sense.
@@tedcrilly46 "Well, technically we didn't have any world war. There were only wars involving arbitrary parts of the world!"
Jesus, you must be fun at parties!
@@mats8375 Not as much fun as when your /m0th-er gets the ping pong balls out.
Yes its a linguistic point. But one which is important. As we live in a world of ... well, you lil guys.
@@tedcrilly46 Dude my mom is dead. "And this is why we don't invite Ted!" 😄
Best video up to date!! Continue pls to deliver such a valuable content! All da best from the fellow Slav.
I’m a proud Patreon supporter of this channel. Once again, this last video of 2023 proves it deserves it. Peace to all of you in 2024.
slime
Asalamu alaykum
17:45 For the record, there was a military exercise in 2020, Winter War 2020. The results was found that if Russia invaded Poland, Poland would fall apart in 4 days. Ukraine in 2022 was seen as less prepared. Everyone in the west over estimated Russia's military.
Ukraine had, and probably still has, a more capable force than Poland overall.
They also said that they would be in Kiev in 3 days, and Paris in a week.
I really don't think so 😅
@@postmortemarg
They were in Kyiv though, will be is different from will stay 😄
I grew u in cold war Europe and we thought it was when not if Russia would invade. Turns out it never could. Politicians need to keep their population scared to control them, so we inflate dangers. China is now the big scary country thats gong to invade half the world, it's not. A danger to it's neighbors but has enough issues at home to keep it occupied.
@@postmortemarg They were in Kiev in under 3 days. And by the way, they plan to be back there in the future.
Once again great analytics, thank you.
Very informative. Well done on explaining the possible ramifications of a war between super powers.
This is a well put together video. Good job. Subscribed.
As a European from a non NATO country I think part of the problem is that since 1991, European governments have disarmed (especially UK, France and Germany) and been very slow to realise the growth of non interventionism and in some cases even isolationism in the United States. The prospect of the U.S. actually leaving NATO is shocking for many. Looking at the Congress, vast majority did vote for a law requiring Congress to be consulted if a President decided to leave NATO. But we know from a precedent where Carter left a defence treaty with Taiwan in the 1970s that Trump - if he chooses - may be able to do this alone.
I think a second factor is the declining importance of the EU market, and the rise of China, India etc. This makes corporations more interested in Asia and less interested in Europe than in the past, though the US still exports 20% to the EU, not including Britain and Norway (a major oil producer). Soft-power (non military power) is about economics and trade routes. The Suez Canal is important on this too, and probably is a factor in US interest in the Middle East, as is supporting Israel because of the American Jewish and Evangelical vote.
Im not sure I would consider Afghanistan a "pointless war", given Osama Bin Laden was there when 911 happened. Iraq in 2003 was a pointless war.
That Congress passed that law means that Trump can’t abandon NATO like we withdrew out of the Taiwan treaty.
If the United States were really a powerful state, it would stop the conflict in Ukraine. And so, it looks only like cheap propaganda and justification of the hegemon on clay legs. One example, the Americans do not allow Ukrainians to use Abrams tanks so that the whole world does not see how quickly the Russians will reset these tanks (all destroyed leopard 2 tanks are proof of this). The author is scared and pours a fairy tale into the ears of his audience. The United States and NATO lost on February 24, and then it was just agony. PS and don't play with the Russians, because Rocket BUlava is keeping a close eye on the bad guys in the USA, EU.
Yeah, so waging a war against the whole Afghanistan just because of Bin Laden, who was chilling in Pakistan lol
He ain't president yet guys and no guarantee he will be. Hopefully RFK Jr wins it.
Your calm, confident and Linguistic style made this so easy and comfortable to listen to.
Assuming the writing in this video was indeed original, and not plagiarized, it was done extremely well!! A blend of historical facts, mixed with a realistic view of potential futuristic outcomes. Using those historical facts as the basis of your predictions…. Well done sir !!! 👏
You cannot plagiarize facts.
There aren't many geopolitical channels that are not connected to the mass media.
GTBT is the biggest on YT. They have, I think 7 channels ( PL EN DE UK RU FR SP)
Yea realistic as declaring no one in NATO has no balls to defend NATO.
Great video! Great work! You have a new fan. This was awesome.
I'm from Latvia. Videos like these keep me awake at night. Especially when you predict that we will be abandoned by everyone in case of a Russian invasion.. and that the invasion is to be expected in the near future.
Путинская система может провалиться в себя, чисто из-за внутриполитической ситуации. Этот год многое покажет, если система в рф останется неизмененной, то риски будут и увы не малые.
It is being decided. But, in a negative cascade of events - yes that is possible. Probably, it is good to have a backup plan also on a personal level.
No offense but why would Russia invade your crappy little country and risk WW3 with NATO when they can simply take over Moldova and/or Armenia with little or no consequence?
It's better to be positively rather than negatively surprised so expecting the worst is a sound strategy for survival.
You are correct in that case the prudent thing to do would be to station troops there from countries like Poland, US, UK French and Germany plus Latvians before Russia invades. @@cyberfunk3793
The unipolar moment was the moment of US hegemony in which they solved issues as they willed, not according to pré-established rules. The situation in Iraq makes it more obvious than any other, although examples abound.
I do think some of this came from the loss of a unified purpose with the collapse of the USSR which was for all people around the world a rather sudden occurrence. almost nobody in the west or the US thought in the 80s that the USSR would crumble in the next decade.
Power corrupts.
I mean, they ENFORCED the rules, but there was no one to make them follow the rules themselves. That's why I support a multipolar world with Europe as a second superpower, because we'd be able to, at least in theory, enforce the rules on one another. A multipolar world with Russia or China rising as a second superpower would be a disaster for the world.
@@braedonallen4291 historically speaking that hasn't worked... all the great powers of Europe and the majority of wars being fought against each other... a multipolar world means more conflict. Or at least that's my take.
@@braedonallen4291 Europe and the US are so closely aligned that it wouldn't really be multipolar. I don't really like India but at least they are a largely neutral party in all of this so economically speaking they do make a decent counter balance without being an existential threat like China and Russia are as India has no dreams of conquest against its neighbors that are plainly apparent.
Awesome video. Thank you so much. You have helped me understand what is going on.
great channel, thank you for your efforts!!
Without any doubt, the best geopolitics chanel on youtube, thank you for everything that you do brother, fantastic content as always!
Awesome man its insane the rate at which you make these videos. I really enjoy them.
Thanks! Very well presented!
I love ❤️ the Dracula accent explaining WAR and geopolitics
Hubert, this was a masterpiece. It is an honor to be your fellow European.
This video is bullshit that utterly and ridiculously diminishes Europea and portrays it as short-sighted American puppet. It is ridiculous and insulting. The idea that Russia will be able finish the war in Ukraine in a few years and then attack the Baltics is pure Russian fantasy.
This was excellent and you earned a new subscriber 👍🏻
Geopolitics is one of the most complex rubrics cubes imaginable. Thank you for laying this out so clearly!! One of the best explanations Ive ever heard.
America is becoming very dysfunctional & unstable. Our country seems to have zero interest in improving the lives of its own citizens. That is, our cities feel disconnected, soulless, bland, unaffordable, etc. I really don't like the direction modern America has gone. We could do so much better. I love this country. I just want to see things improve. i loved how in the 90's we at least had all sorts of places that people could live, unique things to do & places to go. Poor People, middle, upper class. There were places for anyone ~Nowadays we have universally unaffordable cost of living, rent prices, shop rent prices.. (unless you are wealthy) I don't understand how long we can continue to function in this extremely dysfunctional manner?? I hope things change. People stuck in poverty need places to live too.. it's ridiculous how our current system pretty much requires everyone to be financially well off 👍🏻 Yeah, that's so realistic (Not)👍🏻 it's completely impossible for everyone to be financially well off. We need living options. We need places that average people can live, poor people can live.. Raising wages just continually makes things worse because our country says "it Has to increase things" if minimum wage goes up. So it does nothing but make things worse. We need places people can live even if they make below average $ (look at all the rent prices right now? The same goes for the rent of local small businesses too. It's absurd. I know this because my mom runs a local small business in Oregon. So that's 2 insane rents to pay per month! It's the biggest challenge to afford rent. Profit isn't even really a thing. How stupid is that? What kind of quality of life is that?) This is Modern Day America 👍🏻 and when you look at our government, it doesn't seem like anything is going to be addressed or improved anytime soon.. Maybe multiple generations from now, idk?
Sounds like you need to explore your country a lot more. It could be a hell of a lot worse.
The 1990s was the last golden age of film, music, art, and dance. Everything turned to shit by the early 2000s.
@@juniorjames7076 Nah the 2000s were pretty good. Once we get to the mid 2010s things started to go down a bit more.
It has gotten bad with the political tribalism too, the amount of teeth pulling that needs to happen to get the left and the right to the same table just to try to solve the border crises is absolutely insane and its causing people to argue its a good thing that millions of people are showing up and burdening our institutions to their breaking point just so they don't have to admit there is a problem and that they would have to make an agreement with the "other side"
it would help if our leaders were really american and not tied to foreign interests and causes
Good video. Very informative. Great watch.
Very clear explanation of our current global situation. I agree with the analysis. Rohan Analysis, thank you for putting out such great stuff. It’s nice to see alternatives to Stratford, Zeihan on Geopolitics and other geopolitical analysis.
as an American i feel that the world often neglects that most Americans have the privilege of being ignorant and it not affecting them good examples being vivek currently who advocates the US abandoning its allies
Absolutely devastating if he wins
@@morecopemorerope4372 ? elaborate
@@endermarine1686abandoning our Allies would be the absolute dumbest move the US could make.
@@baneofbanes exactly its a horrible thing and we must stay a global power. but as a nation we are so lucky that our people dont have to care
@@endermarine1686 no we are not lucky, because we should care. People just choose not to.
Good luck to us all...
God Speed…. God Speed for us all
Great video essay! Great info.
Kafamda dağınık olarak geçen düşünceleri doğru bir şekilde düzenleyip bir video oluşturmuşsun resmen. Harika bir video. Uzun zamandır bu derece kaliteli bir jeopolitik videosu izlememiştim.
Great video! Now I would like continuation about China’s geopolitical strategy and expectations, and the answer to the question posed by the author in this video.
But Russia didn’t “thoroughly modernize its army.” It merely reduced its manpower while maintaining Soviet military doctrine both in utilizing mass over precision in its weapons systems and how it employed infantry (without having mass in terms of men).
I have never said that it has been a successful modernisation ;)
Посмотрим как "цивилизованные европейцы" своими маленькими армиями наемников, профессионалов и добровольцев будут воевать в настоящей затяжной войне, где в конечном итоге решает количество, а не качество.
we currently see Russia loosing the war; break up of the Federation will likely follow. No one wants to be the last ones to be called Russian, as they will be paying the bill.
@@foss9455lol you cant even beat the ukrainians
even? lol@@peterheinzo515
Kudos to the marker/s of this epic fast paced no bs video 🎉
Awesome video. Subscribed.
I truly despise our, America’s, lawmakers who are bickering over whether to send Ukraine aid. Especially when its seemingly so easy to see that winning in Ukraine would be much better for us than a stalemate or their loss. Unbelievable that america has fallen so far
I think the increasing partisanship over the years are largely due to lack of an external adversary. The fall of USSR meant there are no longer any unifying political issues. This peace dividend means both parties and voters increasing looked to the other political party as a threat, hence the increasing partisanship. It's likely that a new cold war between US and China will likely result in greater cooperation between Republicans and Democrats.
its almost like Russia had been meddling with usa politics. putin has been fixing the republicans against America, you wonder why usa power decreased during trumps time
@@xiphoid2011I would like to add that liberal governments have always had a tough time dealing with proxy wars due to backlash of its own people. It is why our government seems to pull too many punches instead of going scorch earth. True reality is we can most definitely defeat most our enemies swiftly but our own people prevent us from doing that.
I agree 100%. Russia compromised Trump, and Trump as the most powerful politician in the Republican Party, has leaned on Republican politicians. Traditionally, the Republican Party was always strong on defense and deterrence; but now they want to give Putin the gift of large sections of Ukraine and forego broader deterrence directed not only at Russia, but also China. Reagan must be turning over in his grave (not to mention Eisenhower). It is absolutely foolish to cut off or significantly limit aid to Ukraine. We should be enhancing Ukraine's ability to take the fight to Russia to break out of this stalemated land war.
Как Украина может победить?
This is a great overview of the year in geopolitics, but I think analysts often overinflate the power of Russia and China. To be clear, this isn't to dismiss the power and ambition they do have, but watching the limp Russian offensive barely going through a former colony has been pretty enlightening. There's also been a Chinese reapproachment towards the US, which, for any other liberal democracy (say the Phillipines), this would be a sign of hopeful sign of genuine cooperation... but for a totalitarian CCP, this is a sign of weakness. With that said, for as ambitious Russia/China is, the West seems - and I hate to say this - just as bored with global politics. And what global politics IS discussed, it's done through a partisan, ideological lens for the sake of partisan, ideology. It's depressing. Until liberal democracies resolve our own internal challenges, we're paralyzed. It's so depressing.
Agreed. Russian military power has shown they couldn’t possibly sweep across Europe. They can’t even take towns 300 km from Moscow.
Even with this, China is still overlooked for what they are, what they do and who they are
The Philippines a liberal democracy lol. You mean US puppet.
Anyone who thinks the CCP is "totalitarian" has never been to China.
To be fair to the ruskis they are essentially fighting the US and Europe through Ukraine, who currently hold Europe’s most powerful army by a considerable margin. Russia’s current winter offensive in Ukraine is having sweeping successes across all fronts, and the fact Ukraine is struggling to secure additional funding does not bode well for their ability to outlast the Russian war machine. If the US do decide to detach themselves from Europe and follow a policy of isolation, which is what Trump promises to pursue if he is re elected, then I fear Europe will be at the mercy of Putin, who has an military that is currently 3,000,000 strong and a male population of 66 million, which dwarfs all other European countries.
Also, the phallacy that Ukraine is experiencing any kind of dramatic advantage from its supposedly advanced NATO military equipment is also worryingly being proved false. Just look at the number of Bradleys currently littering the battlefield in Avdiivka.
In summary, I think people are quite justified to be worried about Russia’s potential in Europe.
A suggestion: a video about the current world situation and the work of Malinovski about the Headhunters of the Pacific. Thanks!
Thank goodness for subtitles.
The countries that benefit from the US led global order need to do their part in maintaining it as well. This is the main complaint from the Americans. Almost no NATO nations care enough to spend their 2%.
Какая интересная система. Кто то извлекает выгоду, а кто то большая бензоколонка или страна фабрика, чьи граждане живут значительно беднее, если не за чертой бедности. Зато золотой миллиард нам рассказывает про "демократию". Ваши союзники выродились, они не готовы воевать за свои привилегии, а мы готовы.
There is plenty of blame to go around, but from an American perspective the last two decades haven’t exactly fostered an appetite for military interventions due to some really poor decisions and wars which undermined US reputation and standing with probably every country on the planet. The second Iraq war (motivated by actual lies) and the failure in Afghanistan emboldened Russia.
Trust me, Eastern Europeans are annoyed as fuck by this as well, maybe they think they are not in the front so they dont have to spend as much? i dont know but its fuck up
They dont understand that US can always just go into isolationism and this would be catastrophe for Europe, It's like they think world is full of birds and rainbows
Each country will always do what is better for them, so if US will feel EU is not doing as good job then US can just play for themself and leave and this scenario scare me. Empires rise and fall and I think Europe forgotten this lesson, At least the western Europe because every country who border russia spend at least 2% if not more now.
@@SuperAnimationer yeah, we in the USA know that nations that are in the direct line of China and Russia; Japan, South Korea, Taiwan for China, and Poland, Baltics etc for Russia, do their part and appreciate the US. Our problem is more with the Western Europeans who tend to free ride off us, and then also criticize us for our troubles in how we approched complex, difficult situations
@@AW-zk5qb Isn't it okay for the United States to go back to the Americas? It's useless to criticize China all day, after all, China hasn't been at war for a long time
I'm always really impressed with your analysis. I wish more people would follow your channel.
Enjoyed this, thank you
Amazing perspective analysis
Great video! I do think a focus on Russia still merited, as opposed to only and exclusively looking at China and the USA. China undeniably plays a key role in geo-politics and will continue to do so, but you could also make the point that it has not really taken any hard action on any front yet and that makes it difficult to predict when/if it will actually take further steps: Taiwan is still independent, HK is not annexed, the BRI has not materialized to the expected degree, and even within the WTO context or pledging allegiance in the ongoing conflicts China has a rather mild attitude. This can all change in a decade, but I hope policy makers do not lose sight of the more current and imminent threats because of a more abstract future threat.
China, having benefited from the rules based order, has taken the foreign finance, alongside economic and technological development directed towards it, and directed it towards the largest, fastest military build-up to ever occur during 'peacetime'. Taken alongside its pursuit of island bases and staging areas in the South China Sea, it is hard to imagine any reason for these massive, expensive efforts besides an intention to initiate war in the pursuit of conquest... these are certainly far from "abstract" issues.
The scale of the industrial-military effort is impressive, clearly designed to assert a challenge to the system of international law that brought about the long peace, and Taiwan is on the frontline. In other words, much like Ukraine, Taiwan could make for an ideal test case.
During the 1990s, China couldn't afford to annex Hong Kong, but it was still returned by Prince Charles and the Queen's Government. Nevertheless, more recent events speak to the viability of Hong Kong's pseudo-independence. "One country, two systems" is a dead idea. Personally, I wouldn't say Hong Kong is free today because people have few political rights, and Hong Kong politics are controlled from Beijing. What's left to annex?
What is not being discussed and with good reason is that China and Russia know that without a wide scale war their countries will not be allowed to grow into existential threats for the US.
Only together can China and Russia be a true existential threat to the US.
In other words a large scale nuclear conflict is more likely then not. Many Russian elites believe that there is one final war that is needed against the west. That without this Great War then Russia will not be able to grow into its real potential. Without a Great War Russian believe that the west will dominate them indefinitely. This is not true but strongly believed by ppl like Putin.
The Russians are trying to secure their western border. Until the western border can be pushed out for strategic distance then Russia can not start this greater war with the west. Putin knows that at present if he starts a nuclear war then as soon as the fallout settles he would see tens of millions of European outraged men coming for Russian heads. It would be the end of Russia and the Russian ppl.
China has proved that colonialism is only wrong if white people do it. Asians can colonize, commit genocide, war crimes and pretty much anything and only the white man gets punished. That’s why to this day, most western countries are completely unaware of what China is up to and even more, they don’t even know what Japan did during the war.
A decade? This can all change in a night.
Annette why would they have to enact something that's already part of China? You do understand that the world recognizes this Taiwan as part of China don't you? It is just the US and its vested interest in the computer chips at Taiwan makes that's causing the problem? It's all about Monopoly buddy and anyone who supports America is a full or the greedy and Evil. You can't be informed and still choose the back of America and most of this bullshit unless you're evil
An intriguing cover for sure! However I think an important factor emerging in Eastern Europe is Poland. If Russia wins in Ukraine, and threatens the Baltics, we could see Poland finally take the stage and stand up to Russia itself. I do believe though Ukraine is a critical moment and will decide the future of Geopolitics.
Poland simply occupies Lviv and other territories where Poles live. Hungary also occupies part of Ukraine. This is how it ends. This is only if Russia is in Kyiv. This scenario is unlikely. Poland may demand its former territories from Ukraine in exchange for assistance.
Finally comprehensive commentary on the geopolitical context that yields our present pickle. 🖖
imho, it is a methodological mistake to claim, as you do at 0:45, that a dozen years ago we lived "in relatively peaceful times"...the aftermath of 9/11 was felt, in Iraq and Afghanistan; Russia was threatening NATO about expansion towards the East, back in 2009 already
It's a slowly increasing crescendo- the music started becoming audible with the collapse of USSR, Yugoslavia (also events in Africa) then after 9/11 it got louder, then 2011, 2014 and now since 2022 cumulative escalations.
Okay! Thanks for the cheerful report GTBT. Happy New year everyone! ✌
For all who think that Russia threatening NATO is an abstract scenario (and that I'm just 'fear-mongering'). Please see this material: czcams.com/video/aJeSWaEoAXA/video.html ; if you still are not convinced - You can also check out my polemic in this thread, where I expand on certain issues: czcams.com/users/postUgkxIECORWJlutHNufmdVkMrGmTm-ZUYd0fk
I think you are fear mongering and that type of thinking locks countries into a circle of escalation and conflict, but well. It's not my region of the world. However, to Americans and western Europeans financing and supporting all of that, it should open their eyes I think
Based on 2024 elections, the world could drastically change if republicans win and bend down to appease Putin, sacrificing Ukraine and eventually NATO in the process. I'm very curious about the strength of the US dollar, which is backed by.. faith, once all countries lose trust in US in this scenario.
The real danger is not Russia threatening NATO but NATO threatening Russia. Like it or not, this war is about Russia putting its foot down after many attempts at accommodating NATO. Russia is not strong enough to conquer all of Europe and even if it did, it cannot administer it. But this war is making Russia stronger and independent of Europe.
The most likely scenarios are a nuclear exchange or NATO forfeiting the Baltic states to Russia. Russia do not have the capacity to fight beyond the Dnieper so nukes are the mostly defense for Russia against NATO and the Baltics states blocks Russia access to sea.
as much as i agree with you on most points, i think you are blowing it a bit out of proportion. It's not like russia and china dont also have their own problems. Russia's corruption, demographic problems (muslim and asian minorities), low births are still there, also i dont think the russians are very keen on another wave of mobilization, especially as drone combat footage slowly reaches the public. I think there is just a bit of fear mongering. Having said this i still loved the video and i will watch the ones you reccomended
An excellent analysis that really highlights how important it is for the US to continue its support for Ukraine. A withdrawal into isolationism would unleash chaos, but staying the course can exploit the underlying weaknesses of the belligerents. Following these events for years has led me to the same conclusion.
I think many people are getting unnerved by imagining the worst, instead of thinking about how they might shape the future by raising consciousness and advocating for sound defense policy.
The far right political faction in the US is weakening, and the GOP’s hold on the House is diminishing as embattled representatives leave. Speaker Johnson is woefully out of touch with reality, and he may be forced to concede a vote on substantial support for Ukraine, our most cost effective option. Furthermore, progress is being made on directing $300bn in seized Russian assets for Ukraine’s defense and rebuilding. The EU has vowed that one way or another they will get €50bn in aid to Ukraine. And ascension talks should help solidify collective security.
From current polling (election in two weeks) it appears that Taiwan will continue under the leadership of the pro-independence party DPP, which is critical for ensuring the island’s defense, without which it would likely succumb to an invasion. US use of bases in the Philippines should help deter China’s aims in the South China Sea, and sanctions should further impede China’s semiconductor ambitions.
My concern is that with all of China’s internal problems, a failure to reform the political system risks endangering many millions of Chinese. There is no limit to the damage a megalomaniac like Xi Jinping could inflict, and a revisiting of catastrophes on a scale that Mao brought about is quite possible. Xi is certainly treading in Mao’s footsteps, even laying the groundwork for his own Cultural Revolution. Hopefully education in China has risen to a level where it might help avert chaos.
Awesome summary!
Masterpiece of a video...Well done sir.
As an American this also has alot to do with domestic issues as well. Republicans are calling for less aid to Ukraine and more isolationist policies not because they favor Russia or wish to retreat from the world stage, but because they see Europe as free riders and need to step up. The Republicans recognize these options presented and have chosen option 2. The democrats believe option 1 is possible however for that to work Europe would need to take responsibility and confront Russia which isnt happening. So the divide at home for America is accelerating this decline. Americans need to commit to a strategy or one will be made for them. Its either an empire or Isolationism they need to decide quick.
If America decides to isolate and let the rest of the world dismantle their achievements (option number Stupid), I wouldn’t mind them taking their time so that the rest of the West can have at least some time to adapt and unite when abandoned by American populists.
b.s. Republicans absolutely favor Russia *and* want to retreat from the world stage. The only war they want to fight is a civil war; not coincidentally, Putin's and Xi's dream come true. The whole free rider narrative is Kremlin propaganda. The US was fine having Europe dependent on it for decades and assumed massive power because of this dependency.
Based on America's likely candidates, the rest of the world--especially BRICS+, will force Option 3 and start replacing the U.S. Dollar with the Chinese Yuan.
No they’re calling for it because they either want to retreat form the world stage, or for a the most fringe minority, support Russia.
@@ChadSimplicio except BRICS doesn’t want to adopt the Yuan.
Great video and thanks. Love this big picture content and wish there was more of it.
One thing not mentioned, which is important in understanding the situation, is the rejection of globalism by the American populist right and left. The populist right is now more anti-war than the center left because the populist right came out of the military cadre that fought in the Middle East. And the populist right also appeals to traditional labor unions, which got crushed by globalization.
There’s really no “going back” no matter how hard DC tries to remove Trump. The populist right now represents ~25-33% of the US population, and they are adamant on avoiding foreign entanglements. There will have to be a compromise with this demographic. That removes “option 1” from the table.
Not to mention it's America's stupidest demographic.
The populist right in the US is extremely anti union actually as they have been programmed to reject anything that even hints at socialism. Which of course unions dont but the rich right wing business class has been associating them with that and with being a front for the mob since the 80's. Also Im a liberal Democratic war veteran myself. I and others know it was the neocon right that got us into those wars in the first place. Dont think the right has the exclusive ownership on veterans for a second. The naive isolationism showed by the populist right comes hand in hand with the rise of nationalism and xenophobia in the US, its nothhing new, they were around in both world wars( very strong after WW1 in fact) and in the 19th century. They should be minimized and ignored as they seem thoroughly closed to the barest notion of compromise as the GOP walking out of negotiations of aid for Israel and Ukraine in exchange for increased border funding shows.
Also the anti Ukraine aid folks are just as animated by the fact that there are many among them who have fallen for the Russian narrative of the Ukrainian conflict and by those who in fact really like Putin and want his version of autocracy to come to the US. All the more reason they must be kept from every lever of power possible.
To the point ! Perfect thanks again
Oh god I love this video I learn so much from this video thank u so much this is the best geopolitical video for me and u so good brother keep it up lots of love from India💐❤️
The problem with predictions is that they are made from a specific point in time before the events that are being predicted begins, for example assessing nations before the start of a war. As war starts, if ever, a lot of things change and nations will not the same, collective consciousness changes, military capability changes, economics change and so the original predictions. And as the events drag on, the butterfly 🦋 flies in a trajectory wider and wider away from the prediction.
Of course - the so-called 'wisdom of the moment'. But do we have a choice? We live now and have to draw conclusions based on what we know now. Geopolitics has some solid currents driving it, but nothing is predetermined.
I dare to say that you are just ignoring the facts and basing your conclusion on your feeling of uncertainty. Yes, the there are different aspects and things that may change the result, however you cannot ignore the facts that it show as each nation move along.
As the Butterfly 🦋 move it's wings the effect of it cannot be ignore and thus, will form the final picture.
@@ForF6cksAke I am not ignoring the facts, it is simply a law of Physics that the accuracy of a prediction is inversely proportional to the length at which the prediction spans. Try to predict the weather this day next year!
And as for my feelings of uncertainty it is only your delusion to be able to know the feelings of a random person on the internet, who you do not know in the slightest his character.
There is a lot of variation here. We can say that the weather one year from now will be more similar as it is today than the weather in half a year, because there are yearly cycles that relate to simple parameters. The complexity of the topic matters too. Russia, for example, is behaving quite similarly as it has for throughout its history, but because we're talking about geopolitics and not weather, it is much more difficult because collective human behavior is guided by way more parameters than weather. Sweeping generalizations about the relation between prediction accuracy and the time to said prediction varies a lot depending on what you're trying to predict. The death of our star is far in the future, but we can be sure it will happen in a certain timeframe, because the behavior of stars is much simpler than, again, geopolitics that is guided by psychological and sociological forces. @@renatob9909
@@Minisynapse Mmm… not sure what the point is. You did not like the weather example? Then consider this: in 536 a plum of hashes coming from Europe convoluted most of the northern hemisphere obscuring the sun for two years. Temperature plummeted for more than a decade, crop failed and a pandemic broke out (Plague of Justinian). There we go, your weather pattern busted already. And you may say Black Swan, if the super volcano did not erupt the weather pattern would have held. But you know, History is not made of ifs.
You know what the real problem is with prediction? “facts”. They say “You are just ignoring the facts”. There are three problems with facts. First of all, what facts are we talking about? All the known facts or just the ones taken into consideration in the analysis? What about the facts that we currently do not know about? How will these ignored facts contribute to the prediction?
Secondly, are the facts weighted? Because not all the facts contribute in equal measure in assessing a situation. For example, how much is the contribution of fossil fuel to global warming, how much from cow farting and how much from natural phenomenon? Difficult to estimate, it mostly depends on whether you invest in oil companies or are a vegetarian.
Thirdly and most importantly, what about the facts that will inevitably pop up as the butterfly 🦋 keeps flapping its wings? (Remember the super volcano).
I mean don’t get me wrong, I do enjoy a geopolitical analysis but when as a conclusion of all the “facts” exposed there is a predicament I roll my eyes, especially the ones made by Peter Zeihan, which are sensationalistic in style with a tint of inevitability, as if he came back from the future to tell us what is going to happen.
The only antidote to predicament/predictions is will power and a vision of how we want the events to go. The Ukrainians are fighting like hell for their (and our) survival. They do not care what comes, they cannot care. All they have to do is fight for freedom, and we must support them in this struggle, whatever comes, whatever happens.
And by the way, since you like patterns, there is also a pattern for dictators 😉
Wow! What a great presentation. It puts all the pieces that led us here together and looks ahead with clear & honest eyes!
An excellent breakdown. From the look to the ancients and the current wars/geopolitical struggles, the world has always been simmering with the occasional explosion.
Thank you.......very thoughtful.
I must have come across at least four channels asking why the world is in flames on my CZcams feed this week now
Yeah I have even seen people on the political left starting to ask why everything is on fire which is interesting because they are the side politically in control of pretty much everything globally for the last 4 years.
and, how did we go?
YT channels be slangin' fear.
personal opinion, I think a combination of option 1 and 3 is most likely. The amount of supports provided to Ukraine from US seems sufficient from US point of view which is sufficient supports from US and EU (which will slowly swift to more from EU) to keep Ukraine afloat and slowly bleeding Russia, while buying sometime to let US move supply/production chain back to new world and strengthen its influence in pacific region. while trying to strengthening other power in south Asia and creat a 'second' front for PRC. while for PRC, it maybe get into a very dangerous state: a wounded strong animal, which is strong enough to cause major chaos while it is eager to do some as fighting maybe the best chance to keep what it has. the only thing is certain is that a major conflict among major and medium power will create new unstable world and likely lead to another major conflicts, until the powers are balanced again
yeah well, the main reason Taiwan matters at all, in fact the entire Pacific theatre, is it's semi conductor industry incl. supply chains. A Chinese move on Taiwan would immediately end US technological capacity beyond its current stock (tiny) meaning the US would 100% intervene in Taiwan with full might. Japan is another critical supplier (wavers) thus having a similar effect. Again. This is at the heart of American technological prowess and they will fight to death to maintain that capacity. It's not even a question.
That being said, they are re-shoring production as we speak. In 10 to 15 years the US will produce cutting edge chips domestically and that's when they will completely withdraw from the Pacific. 100%. Slow at first but then very sudden (think Afghanistan).
I get the impression, at least from the US that they want the war in Ukraine to drag on to bleed Russia of its resources to hurt its economy, which happens on two fronts, man power and economic resources Russia is having to throw into the war effort.
Both the EU and US are more than capable of supplying the arms needed to Ukraine to end this war far sooner than it's likely going to be and really, both the EU and US needs to get their act together because things are getting unstable around the world, it's going to be costly for both the EU and US having to deal with the conflict in Ukraine whiles other wars are braking out and I know some will say we won't intervene but things are braking out in a lot of regions around the world that if we are not careful, things could escalate that it forces us into the war.
If there is ever a time where we need strong leadership from the EU and US, it's now, because I suspect a lot of these wars are braking out because of poor leadership from the powers that have the clout to do something about it, and I'm wondering, how far are we going to let things escalate before we put our foot down, basically, nip these things in the bud before it gets out of hand, which we are seeing early signs of that now.
Excellent overview and exploration of possible moves by the US.
I love your work because of a really strong and meaningful facts!
As once Winston Churchill said - 'You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.'
Who "chose dishonour" here? And who is going to declare World War 3 now?
@@hyhhyisolationists are choosing dishonor by not trying to nip our enemies expansionism in the bud.
@@baneofbanes So... when are you going to declare that World War 3 that you want? Or who do you want to do it?
@@hyhhy if you want WW3 than appeasement is the surest way to get it.
Such a sobering analysis. One can only hope that the leaders of the West will heed its warning and stand fast.
Keep up the good work!
This video literally read out everything that was going in my mind and a lot more …absolutely amazing… great insight ..
Awesome Video thanks :) ..Queensland Australia:)
I dont understand how Venezuela could physically get to Guyana to invade. Theyd have to go right through a mountain range and rainforest. Good luck with that one.
Also is it weird I like nukes? I honestly think thats the only thing thats stopped WW3 so far, ironically.
Nukes r gud
It's Venezuela that wants to invade not Brazil. But Brazilian territory may be possibly used.
I think the neo-cons would love venezuela to invade guyana so they could finally topple the Bolivarian revolution and take all their oil
I meant Venezuela, but theres only one road into Guyana that avoids the mountains and rainforests and it goes south through Brazil. Brazil would never allow Venezuela to use it so how are they gonna GET TO Guyana?@@jirislavicek9954
@@jirislavicek9954 Then they'd be declaring war on Brazil in addition to Guyana. Does Maduro know about what happened when Paraguay decided to try and become a major power in South America if not then he's making the same mistake by attacking Brazil, also he does know that if he tries that the US will likely bomb Venezuala, the Biden Administration as shit as it is does not actually authorization to bomb Venezuela if Maduro does actually decided to invade Guyana.
It started with Nurgle, went full Khorn, with a an increasingly active Slaneesh and all is probably plotted by Tzeentch since the beginning.
This comment has my consent. The machinations of the ruinous powers are widespread.
The emperor protects!
really do have all aspects of Chaos running rampant at the moment, Slaneshi degeneracy is more prominent than ever in the wealthy parts of the world. Tzeentchian machinations have been tipping their final dominoes on many long standing issues and plans. Tensions have reached a boiling point in many areas erupting into a huge number of wars founded largely on hatred for ones neighbors and everything was preempted on an ever-present disease.
I had to chat gpt this
Dude I like warhammer but this comment is pure cringe, this is on par with harry potter fans calling donald trump voldemort 💀
the best geopolitics chanel on youtube, thank you!
“Pacta sunt servanda”. In its time, Rome developed this intangible legal principle: whatever the cost, any mutual aid treaty must be honored. It is this principle that led the Roman legionnaires to every corner of the known world around the Mediterranean and as far as the Indus. This same principle allowed the immense prosperity of the region and its demographic growth for several centuries.
@18:16 "The Pax Americana was stronger than it seemed to the main beneficiary, and guarantor, of this system, the United States." China, Iran, and other competing powers should take note - I'm no fan of the US, but despite the complaining you hear from Americans online, the US is hardly breaking a sweat fighting proxy wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East. A bit of inflation and political division is nothing. While continued global peace is in the US' best interest as global hegemon, like Revolutionary France, the US is easily capable of fighting simultaneously on several fronts.
Nice one. 👍
The analysis is good!
Excellent video, thank you for respectfully and professionally handling these dreadful topics. Wasn't feeling very happy about the state of things these days and I appreciate those who dare to delve and think things through. The reality checks are :chefskiss:
Welcome to the Multi-Polar World. This is what everyone wanted, isn't it?
nah. We need it to stay a US led unipolar world
@@AW-zk5qbWhy ?
The West imperialists with globalist agenda aren't good for anyone.
Spoken like a true Pole. I do agree on the thesis and recommended action, but I don’t think it helps the case to (1) intentionally and pessimistically misread the US a smidge, and (2) do this whole thing without highlighting rising European giant Poland itself.
What do I mean by “misread the US”? Do Europeans realize how beholden to rules made in Brussels our businesses are (SWIFT, GDPR, etc)? You’d better believe Americans are more than aware on a daily basis that Europe has “woken up” to not only be in position to defend itself but also that it can itself wield “big sticks”. I’m a Blue ‘merican, but on this point I see where the Reds are coming from. They’re not making it up out of superstition. We’re happy to run our economies in conjunction with our Brussels partners, but we _know_ now that when we measure GDPs, Europe can’t honestly play the “poor little fragmented us” card anymore.
That said I don’t think most Americans appreciate Germany’s positive role so far, particularly in absorbing the energy hit. Germany had a very bad rep for defense free-riding among Americans. A reputation Japan doesn’t have, btw. Many haven’t shed that opinion yet. This opinion has been building up brick by brick for a long time - it can only be reversed with a lot of honest truth-telling.
If I can go one step further, whether its smart or not, a lot of ground-level Americans are jealous of European social safety nets. And so on. Point being - don’t oversimplify the “isolationist” impulse as genuinely “isolationist” - it’s more, “why are we giving away our cake when they seem to have cake over there already”.
Well put together. Will be interesting to see wheter the European military build up will be fast enough to start shifting the views of EU support from the US as "charity work" in a way.
So happy I found this channel
This video is actually genuinely underated and damm and this is actually the actual real China that the actual American and British BBC propaganda mainstream media actually don't show you is actually really like and actually capable of actually doing