The US vs. Itself - and Other Top Global Risks in 2024 | Ian Bremmer | TED
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- čas přidán 12. 05. 2024
- 2024 will be a dangerous year for the world, says Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Forecasting the top geopolitical risks set to play out in the months to come, he untangles what's in store for the war in Ukraine, the state of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the tensions putting democracy in the United States to the test - all while AI continues to evolve faster than governments can regulate it.
This interview, hosted by TED's Helen Walters, was recorded on January 8, 2024 as part of the series "TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer." Watch more: go.ted.com/series/tedexplains...
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#TED #TEDTalks #politics
This woman did great in not sticking her opinions into what he was saying. Proper hosting, some should take notes.
Shouldn't she interject at the point Brennan asserted regarding the election was stolen cult that it's "not Trump's fault"?
Nah, sometimes it's good to challenge the guest, otherwise it's a monologue.
Putin should not be rewarded with more territory.
That won't be up to us to decide
Our time had reached its zenith, and it is now over. Everything not just Banks, Stock including 401Ks, are suffering from the recession and crashes. My $750K retirement equity portfolio is losing money. Because of inflation, I keep losing. Similar to how Rome fell under its despotic emperors, this world will also. I apologise if you are considering retirement but are concerned that your pension won't cover the rising expense of living. There are terrible foreign policies worldwide, as well as disastrous regulatory, fiscal, and energy policies.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
Spot on! Many underestimate the value of an advisor. For those of us with busy schedules, monitoring charts and keeping up with the financial market is challenging, over the past 5years I've had a an advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/ expenses and I've made over $3million in gains... might not be a lot but i find myself secure financially
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Samuel Peter Descovich because I adore his methods.
You can make research and find out more.
SAMUEL PETER DESCOVICH
GOOGLE the name
Thank you for the shout out to the Antarctic Treaty System and the fact that it has managed the stewardship of that unique ecosystem is quite remarcable.
It is very important to make the international community aware of the fact that invasion or annexation based on unilateral claims without UN approval, even though one's own country has not been attacked(extremely important), will only lead to backlash from the international community and economic exhaustion.This is the quickest way to deter sterile wars and save nations from unnecessary expenses.
International community is well aware of US double standards and its hypocrisy.
It's Internet age. Truth will prevail.
It's Internet age. Truth will prevail.
And UK as warmanger.
@@et2709 😂😂😂 good one!
As a side note, Ian's body language and voice inflections make me smile :)
If the topics were not this heavy...
I always value Ian's presentation of the smooth brain take
😂😂
Very much so.
Brilliant presentation. Clarity, logic, facts/evidence, I have followed and read so much if Ian's work over the years. This is the "best of the best". 2024 will be a year like no other and the risks are daunting...frightening really. Thanks Ian for your insights, clarity and brilliant talk. Every leader and politician in the world should watch this.
I listened again, objective , yet hopeful in mankind.
Mr Bremmer is a gift to the world. Thank you for your work.
Seriously? How little you know.
Seriously? How little you know.
28:45 to 29:20 what a statement
Capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich
United we stand, divided we fall. Unfortunately, stating long known truths like that doesn't suddenly cause us to unite, or change a damn thing about the choiceless automatic mindless group-think behavior of most humans.
I am not sure how to fix that. We have lost our common base. From the onset the US had some underlying assumptions that, right or wrong, gave us the necessary consensus to make a republic function. Prior to the turn of the century, the vast majority of Americans wanted the nation to continue to progress in the context it always has and took for granted that was the best way. That requires a basic perspective of the overall goodness of the nation, so that regardless of other differences the basic structure holds. All societies rely as much on their myths as they do their facts, perhaps more so. We have lost our essential American myth and re-arranged the priority of the facts of history for the sole purpose of denigrating our own success. We have launched ourselves on a guilt-and-blame trip that has fomented a kind of universal neuroses. Madness, that feeds on itself as madness often does. The natural eternal internal struggles and doubts of our free people for the first time since the civil war disparages the very idea of the United States. That is a choice. The future is, as it has always been, a self-fulfilling prophesy. "A republic, if you can keep it." (Franklin) For the first time in my life I fear it is possible to lose it. Wealthy republics do not decline. They gradually devolve into empire, and empires eventually decline. Frankly, I would rather decline as a republic. But that is not the way of things.
I'm scared, and I'm not even American
Economy may not take it well... anyone can be touched
Thanks Ian Bremmer for your toughts
Ted Talk has become more and more skewed over the last decade.
I am very pleased to listen to Ian as he analysed each situation with facts, from a neutral point of view.
Ciao ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ ❤❤
He is clearly left leaning. Otherwise he would not get a platform to speak on TED ofc. But he pointed out at least the shortcomings of the Biden administration, to raise an alarm for the democrats, in hope to come up with something better...to have better chances to win the next election and stay in power.
Later, he went downhill badly about the Ukraine war, which was basically just a political speech, not related to reality.
Omg... a TDS candidate.
What's happened to Ted talks?
What? "Neutral"? He ignores the mountains of facts showing the Democrat Party is the most corrupt institution in U.S. history, and nearly responsible for the erosion of trust of our other institutions, projects the real corruptions of the Biden DoJ onto the feckless Trump claiming that is his intentions. Trump can't even formulate an argument against the specious attacks laid on him, how is it he is going to proclaim himself a dictator? Bremmer's analysis is a real disappointment.
His views are not neutral on the Ukraine war. He believes Putin is a fool or even perhaps evil. I strongly disagree with him. I’m with Jeffrey D Sachs and John Mearsheimer on this one. The USA & UK are to 100% to blame. Zelensky is a puppet to Anglo Saxon Imperialism and Putin is doing what Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis… exercising his right to keep the USA from building sites for hypersonic missiles in the Ukraine. They have already expanded NATO into more than 7 countries violating their promise to Gorbachev … we’re getting tired of arrogant self important Americans telling us what to do!
very clear explanations about global developments by ian bremmer. impressed by his way of explaining, how all things are connected.
The US economy too is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Absolutely right,Money invested is much more better than money saved, when you invest, it gives you the opportunities to increase your financial worth.
Exactly,The key to financial freedom and wealth is someone ability to convert earned income into massive profit to build generational wealth.
*I'm with you the best way to build massive wealth for the next generation is to consistently invest in business and guard them grow*
*Exactly and many of us don't know where to invest our money so we invest it on wrong place and to the wrong people*
*Obviously talking about been successful, I know I am blessed if not I wouldn't have met someone who is as spectacular as mrs Ava Kimberly*
Implosion has been one of the fates of the most powerful countries in the world since the Roman Empire.
True, but it goes way back beyond the Roman Empire, if you take a more global view of history
And they have nukes because of Pakistan remember that 😢
Thank you for this talk
An informative subject under discussion by team of Ted members for knowledge and guidance for years to come
I love Ian for his perpetual honesty.
A very encouraging and insightful series of thoughts Thank you both and Ian, you are a STAR.
well maybe we need to elect someone who isnt either Biden or Trump!
RFK❤
Trump first then RFK.
I don't care who we elect as long as it's not Trump. In all seriousness, Biden has actually done a pretty good job, particularly since he's working with a very dysfunctional House. He actually has 46,000 projects going on all over the United States as a result of the infrastructure bill. You'll start seeing the benefits this year.
@@lucibjlb Another Dem that can't keep his name out of their mouth. Orange man bad. You would vote for Biden???!! What in the actual...... people are right, we're screwed. Don't even know what gender we are anymore.
@@lucibjlb😂 Highest inflation in years, 2 proxy wars on the edge of teetering out of control, ridiculous cost of housing, more division in America, yeah….he’s done a great job 😂. Do us all a favor. Don’t vote.
Outstanding. Thank you.
Great analysis!
Thank you for your solidarity.
Watching from Nigeria ❤ love you American
I wonder if Ian would agree with the notion that the heart of the weakness in our political system is the distortions created by the electoral college and the practice of gerrymandering, both of which reduce the power of a persons vote and strengthen the ability of minority rule.
@cheersmodreams691 I wonder if you understand what the electoral college is? It is, THE way to even the score from highly populated and low populated states. Specifically, strengthening the voice of under represented people.
As far as gerrymandering is concerned, there are recent videos of democrats supporting the influx of illegal immigrants, to give their districts enough fresh people to maintain their control. New York, Jerry Nadler wants the illegals to pick vegetables for cheap. Yeah, he really said that!!!
Also the Supreme Court decision that allows unlimited political donations. So now politicians answer to the corporations that buy them, not to voters.
@@rain1956100%
The host asks a brilliant question at the 6:35 mark - "whoever wins, things are not necessarily going to get better" - very wise. Mr. Bremmer's answer was significantly less so.
He's anti trump so hes not giving a fair balance point of view.
Thanks, I feel i don’t have to watch or read News any more with this wonderful Summary, thanks Ian for your expertise and direct message! Very clear, easy to understand for normal people! 💯🤓🙏🏼
always have multiple sources of your news.
Great talk with Ian Bremer per usual but @TED couldn’t you add chapters for each of the topics or consider this for future talks? Would be helpful.
Thanks, TED, for making this input & insight as genuine as possible. I've also learned a lot from your previous talked about The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED
If I want to understand what's happening broadly and in depth, Ian Bremmer here on TED is where I'll go.
Big .
Concerning.
Slightly confounding.
Pretty much sums up the state of Human society just now.
21 minutes I was following Ian … then he said “fast track NATO membership of Ukraine” and I got triggered. He says it could happen (even though he thinks it’s unlikely”… does anyone follow Jeffrey Sachs or John Mearsheimer ? how long will it take for the world to come round to the fact that maybe Zelensky is more of a comedian than a military strategist ? The idea that the West is always morally right about everything & the Russians, Chinese, Arabs & Africans are always unscrupulous may just be a grand delusion. Perhaps the partitioning of Ukraine needs to include an apology by Germany & France to Russia for violating the Minsk Agreements ?
Excellent information backed by good data. Very much appreciated. Peace for 2024 and beyond.
are u kidding me?
The war on Hamas is neither a war nor is Hamas the target.
this guy was so close to getting it
Boo hoo, nobody cares except the weak
Hamas is just scamming money. Money donated is mean to provide food water and medicine to refugees and war victims not for them to buy weapons and use their people as shields. Millions millions spent was misused and corrupted. If you can get weapons like drones, missile, rifles why not generators for hospitals why not medication why not food?
Why Arabs countries don't accept Palestinians? Why not giving them shelters? Arab countries are just war mongers supply Hamas money to buy weapon but not helping refugees just like how Baltics states did to Ukrainians.
It is because cases like Palestinians extremist disguised themselves as refugees in Lebanon carried out terrorism and causing civil war in Lebanon. Lebanon now is still recovering from it.
It is not cold hearted to not helping Palestinians but when people want to help, we need to think
1. Does the money donated is used to buy weapons or buy medication or buy luxuries by the Hamas leaders? Did our money reach to those in need, those that we wanted to help?
2. Is it safe to accept Palestinians refugees? Will there be any extremist that causing trouble to our country? Will they change our culture, stability of the society?
It is a genocide.
What authority on the matter do you have over the person in the video?
This is fantastic talk
Great program🙏
Enlightening. Thank you
The US should not involve itself in Mideast affairs at all.
Not paid by Russian, but how do you define losing territory as winning? This is a good indicator that how truthful are your statements. And as per your claim, why expanding NATO worth so many people dying? Finally AI only concentrates power to the few whom owns the resources to buy and deploy AI. Many at the lower end of the current social structure will lose means of making a living!
Not paid by Ukraine, but winning would be considered by many to have their own right to self-determination and self-governance? As for the NATO comment, some would suggest that NATO expansion was caused by fear of political meddling and/or military invasion from Russia. This was seemingly warranted given what Ukraine has gone through between 2014 to now, if Chechnya and Georgia were not warning enough. I would reword you one sentence to "Was Putin's invasion worth so many people dying?" Finally, AI and automation has the potential to open doors for other means of living, but admittedly change is always stressful. Better to attempt to embrace its potential and democratize its use for everyone. Frankly, I would be more concerned about how a country like China could misuse this technology. Fundamentally, China's political system is rife with abuse of power: political patronage, coercive ideological conformity, state surveillance, state media control, and tight control of dissent. A major point here is never ever take liberal democratic institutions and your constitutional rights for granted.
And here I was, thinking that the greatest threat to our future would be a 100th anniversary repeat of the 1929 Great Depression. Hmmmm, some much bigger issues afoot - especially for those of us who live along the border with the USA
Americans who live near the border should be the most educated on our foreign policy in latin america - and oppose our support for coups especially those in Honduras, oppose sanctions im venezuala and all the sabotage, support for death squads and any policy that destabilizes latin america and creates undocumented immigration to the U.S..
Thank you
Please also cover AIPAC influence on US politics.
Great conversation.. very eye opening🎉🎉🎉
You guys are just better people than me , you were able to make that leap and i got hung up
The darkness of this gloomy night shall pass away. Let’s be valiant & courageous while people all around us are cringing with fear & cowardice. Let’s not yield to the overwhelming power of tyranny & despotism. Let’s serve the cause of democracy & freedom. The trees of hope will become verdant & the threatening clouds shall be dispelled.
Is there no other better presidential candidates?
Haley Vs Williamson in November.
Only a crazy person would run for president, on either side, you and your family are so attacked that a normal person could not stand it.
There are better options for the general population, but there aren’t better options for the corporate interests and status quo.
Ian Bremmer is the smartest man in the room wherever he goes. I wish I could meet him.
We have met the enemy and they are us
Brilliant
Mr. Ian Bremmer is a super genius and has a wide and profound vision of the World scenario . Many Thanks 🥇🏆🌎🌐🌏⭐🇺🇸🗽🇺🇸
We’re deep in the fourth turning❤
The fourth turning of what?
Unfortunately American democracy is in this state because there are absolutely no restrictions on lying by media organisations. Here in the UK we have a body - Ofcom - that has the power to fine media outlets for breaches of its guidelines on impartiality, truthfulness, and ethics. The fines are much too small, but if the US had introduced something like it 30 years ago Trump would never have got elected and politicians would still be behaving normally.
what he's saying about AI terrifies me it makes me thing of some horrifying ultra-capitalist cyberpunk dystopia where big companies use AI to control every aspect of workers lives you live in next to absolute poverty while a small group of people are obscenely wealthy. That is some extreme nightmare stuff.
Having grown up during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, I honestly feel the world is less stable and less safe. Which is an odd position considering that nuclear holocaust was an every day possibility back then.
Ian is always deeply thoughtful and articulate. Thank you. Al
Ian, deep research and commentator 1:34
❤Ian Bremmer is brilliant ❤
Very informative TED Talk
Mind you this guy has a record of being about 50% right. If you predict something and flip a coin you have as much chances of being right as this guy 😂😂😂😂
can you provide the imperial evidence to back up your claim? Or is this your gut "feeling" disguised as a statement of fact?
What is democracy in the West? Or Plutocracy rather?
I suggest TED & Wikipedia collaborate to be used together. What are your thoughts?
Bottom line: decline of an empire
Profound example of the Dunning- Kruger effect
Ian.. I love listening to your analysis. You lost me however when you talk about the partition of Ukraine.
That the entire Western alliance is not able to overcome a belligerent country with the economy of Texas, well, you’re presenting a bizarrely pathetic argument. We actually need to lean-in and show them who’s boss.
Any other outcome is amoral, defeatist and kicking the can down the road.
The economy isn’t the problem.Russia has an overwhelmingly larger population…140 million to 36 million..We can only send weapons because Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. If the Republicans get back in, aid to UKRAINE will disappear.
The economy isn’t the problem.Russia has an overwhelmingly larger population…140 million to 36 million..We can only send weapons because Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. If the Republicans get back in, aid to UKRAINE will disappear.
Very smart man
Ian Brenner, in my opinion, is a rear and honest analyst.
'a rear' Lol.
you know, the early comment section is a wonderful slice into exactly what this whole video is about. you've got your ethot accounts with booty pics, your clear bait trolls that can't even spell the thing they are insulting correctly, and the chance real comment that are longer than the others. i hope every one who reads this tries to be a bit kinder in their daily life, we all could use it
Excellent analysis
The recent exponential technological development has come to the point that it is easily one of the biggest achievments in human history...now what are the consequences...we'll know when we see it
I think declaring that America is at war with itself is a tad over dramatic at this point. The overall climate isn’t great, but let’s not say the sky is falling just yet.
Great talk by a very insightful thinker!
Excellent analysis of risks in Palestine-Israel, Ukraine, EU vrs Russsia common sense that would be very useful in USA politics, because of its power and UNO that has proved so far ineffectual.
Those who benefit most from this country, and those who claim they run this country should have known all these if we were to say this country leads the world in terms of democracy, economy, technology and military might but all the above people are proving to the world that this country is not the way the whole world think it
is.
Thank you, Ian Bremmer, for your admirable effort to arm us all with insights to put down the malignant nacissists who so recklessly threaten humanity's well-being and progress. Since 2015, for me personally at far too late an age, it has been clearer and clearer that we all are beginning to see and understand who in our populations have historically corrupted our safety, security, happiness, and grossly hindered the realization of our potential for a good life for all. Time for us to effectively wield due process to disempower bad actors.
Saying that the distrust in US elections "isn't Trump's fault" is NOT admirable.
@@flickwtchr I think you may have misunderstood Mr. Bremmer. If Mr. Bremmer truly meant that Trump has not sowed distrust among the American electorate, then I would agree that Bremmer's viewpoint is not admirable. However, I'm confident that Mr. Bremmer actually meant that we cannot focus solely on one low-life (Trump) but need to hold accountable all the others (corrupt billionaires, political, corporate, and thought leaders). Do you agree with what I am saying?
@@OneAmongBillions I'm reacting to what he actually said, not what your interpretation is of what he didn't say.
Tds off the charts
BULLY MAGUIRE WINS 🎉
Excellent analysis. The ‘blue sky’ view also has another layer. As an ardent Bible student, seeing thousands of unerring Bible predictions… I can see the universal view of it also, with the “Prince of Persia“ and “Prince of Greece“, and their world divided between east and west (or ‘king of North’ and ‘King of South’ as described in Daniel chapter 11).. This is all behind-the-scenes. Read chapters 10-11!
Thankful that as of early May 2024, he seems off on the prediction of Israel / Gaza spinning into out of control external conflict. I know it can change but currently hopeful for general de-escalation. He also seemed skeptical of a level of financial support to Ukraine than what has already happened. (Not trying to sharpshoot him from the future, but just generally, I'm glad that a number of his more pessimistic scenarios may not be panning out and hoping that might apply to others.)
Mr Bremmer is probably the best and most trustworthy expert on geopolitics today.
He reminds me of Woddy Allen
Trump already has loyalty
one of the top geopolitical risks is watching, TED .
This is a conversation to be listened to and understood by everyone inhabiting this planet.
Policy changers are senators in the States, not presidents. Presidents have limited terms.
Will the US give up the USD as reserve currency without a fight withChina
It don't matter who win in the two party state of US. More importent thing how independent China, Russia and India will evolve.
Earth is simply too small for this many human belief systems.
If your system is so weak and dysfunctional, you have the wrong system.
why does he mention the Dutch, with regard to being able to cut off China?
Lookup their role in the chip industry and how China and US are pulling on them from all sides
The moralizing in his answers is glaring.
Strong economy? This year the interest of the goverment debt IS bigger than the military budget for the country that expend most in weapons in the world
Ian needs to watch "Ukraine on Fire" to get a broader perspective
No discussion of human health and covid? Interesting. There's such radio silence from various analysts on this. The nation that prevails in a pandemic that changes the substrate of human health is the one that has the most able bodied population or the fastest deployment of ai to compensate for the decreased human productivity.
Sooooooooo… I don’t have a bachelors or a masters or any type of education about anything that he just said but my common sense was able to intellectually or magically picture this outcome months before. Now, WTF ARE THE EXPERTS DOING ?
There is no such thing as common sense. It's a usa myth. There is only: Good sense, bad sense, no sense and for the ignorant majority, nonsense 😅
surprisingly there are many who have a bachelors or a masters or any other type of education who believe trump's populism and became members of the trump cult. And they cannot figure this out on their own. They just "love trump"
This narrative skims over the fact that all of “us” is “US” is the “U.S.” and is but a piece of life. And as a piece of life, all of “us-US-U.S.” Along with the entire world of human “us’s” ALL seek to reach our fullest potential. In fact, there is no life on this planet that does NOT seek to reach its fullest potential. From an ant to a tree, to a you, to a me… all LIFE seeks to reach that fullest potential.
And among one specific species on this planet known as humankind, “WE” are seemingly incapable of being either. When in fact, we should be both. Human AND kind.
One way to have this conversation is to consider that ALL of "us" come from the soil. ALL of "us" live and feed upon this soil. And ALL of "us" will return to that soil.
One Species. One Soil. "Us".
Upon this common-ground the conversation can begin.
The pinnacle of evolution on this planet is human. It is this human mechanism from which technology has come into existence. That technology is constantly upgraded. Version upon version. Yet, the upgrade to the human has NOT happened to keep pace with these human made advances.
So, folks it’s time to upgrade! It too, comes from the very same soil! WE have extracted it, fashioned it… it too, is a part of “Us”.
WE have the solutions to all of our problems on this planet (short of extinction events), via the technology WE have invented.
Isn’t THAT what WE should be focusing on?
Any narrative of US v THEM is counterproductive to survival of our species, as US is THEM, THEM is US and WE must upgrade like OUR technology to see that.
Who’s with me on this? Or am I but a voice in the wilderness? What am I missing? Where must I upgrade my ability to process the deluge of Ms. IN-Formation? Am I out-of-line?
What a valuable and important message for the voters of the USA.
Using AI in US vs. Itself info-war can be devastating. Bot networks, micro-targeted ads, etc. Like Cambridge Analytica on steroids.