There's no such thing as a "30-point" scorer
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- čas přidán 19. 05. 2024
- How do teammates influence each other on the court? Does a player's stats change because of who he is playing with? What about their overall value? This video looks at Kevin Durant as an example of how a player's stats and value are based on his own capacity, and who else is around him. Durant's Warriors give us key insight into these effects, along with the impact of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Russell Westbrook and more.
Support at Patreon: / thinkingbasketball
Book: www.amazon.com/Thinking-Baske...
Podcast: player.fm/series/thinking-bas... or at www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-...
Website: www.backpicks.com
Twitter: @elgee35
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
Stats courtesy:
www.pbpstats.com @bballport
www.basketball-reference.com
stats.nba.com
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Footage in this video is owned by the NBA and its partners. It is intended for critique and education.
Music: Imperfect Place
#ThinkingBasketball - Sport
If you're interested, here is the companion podcast, where I look at some of the more important recent interactions among stars (Harden, Westbrook, etc.) and discuss some of these ideas in more detail: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/podcast-91-how-teammates-change-your-stats-wowy-interactions/id1428290303?i=1000541703642
Will you ever record an audiobook version of your book, thinking basketball?
@@collinwimbish4516 i
The game the warriors just had against Toronto is the definition of Curry destroying an opponent without touching the ball or putting stats up.
😮
Lol at making fun of Stephen A Smith. His level of deep analysis is "the brutha can pull up from 30 but he gotta get the chip!"
Hahahaha, you nailed It, I almost fell off the chair.
I would have appreciated a warning honestly.
Brilliant.
Thank you for your contributions to the game. You’ve changed how I work on the court, and how I watch it when I’m not.
Thanks for sharing that - made my day.
Great to see you back. But, because I want you back even more frequently, I'd like to know if the 5 thoughts would be back for this season or is it retired to the hall of fame of youtube basketball content?
Loved that bit as well, we want it back please.
Playing with something similar. We'll see!
@@ThinkingBasketball Better have some nails with that hammer man, don't tease me
Five thoughts seemed like a nice way to post consistently with less time consumption/effort. If it doesn't come back, I hope he creates something else that is relatively easy to produce and doesn't detract from his more in-depth videos to increase the upload frequency.
@@pedromdcc13 lmao. Late but dope comment. Great to underrated stellar content get appreciated.
Bosh comes to mind as one of the highest bandwidth guys I can remember. Played his tertiary star role in Miami and had some monster games when Wade + Lebron sat.
Same for Rondo with the Celtics, KD without Harden and Kyrie against the BUCKS, PG without Kawhi (you can see it right now his stats are Top 3 in the league ATM), Westbrook without KD averaging a 31ppg Triple-Double or Harden without KD and Westbrook averaging 36ppg and 7.5ast or 29ppg and 11 ast …
These guys are all way better than Bosh.
He was also hitting his stride as the main option in Miami after Lebron left. Sucks that he had to retire
@@Anthonydu01630A lot of them couldn't be as effective when they shared the court with another star. Harden with those stars couldn't adjust his game like Bosh could. Harden probably still contributed more since he's simply a much better player, but the reduction in impact is probably much larger than Bosh's
@@Time_Lapse_Master.Generally agree but harden is such a horrible example. His game scaled down perfectly with the Nets, allowing him to run the offense, setting up kd kyrie and most importantly the roleplayers. Better example is rondo or westbrook who absolutely destroy spacing
@@jojoprocess2820 Defense.
You're the type of channel that deserves some Chinese food, coca cola, and a blunt in hand after a long day. I'll be back to give you a proper viewing
This channel is the truth, very in depth and comprehensive.
Gonna reach basketball enlightenment
So you need to poison yourself to enjoy video huh🤔
I hear ya🤷🏾♂️🤣🤣😉
@@symonwatson6972 sounds like you need to *chill out*
I couldn’t have said it better 😂😂😂
The TS% increase for Durant while playing with Curry on the floor is just another testament to the greatness of Curry. The fact that KD was so effective no matter the load is another testament to why he's one of the greatest to ever do it. And Klay's effectiveness being the third wheel, the splash brother, or the main focus is why he's so underrated in the history of the sport. He's such an incredible compliment player and would be my first pick to be the tertiary star on any squad because of that, despite their being 8 or 10 guys who are probably (or at least seen as) better.
I'd want all three of them on my all-time team. It was such a pleasure getting to witness that piece of NBA history.
Yesss, my brain needs more hardcore basketball insight🤖 If all basketball fans watched this channel, it would insanely advance the general thinking of basketball culture
From this day forward, Russell Westbrook will forever be known as Lord of the Triple Double and Prince of High Usage. Thanks @ Thinking Basketball
Can you make a rookie analysis like what you did for the rookies in 2018-19 season; Luka, Trae, MB2, JJJ
Cant wait for a complete many hour long warriors documentary starting from and finish with the curry era. People act like his career started in 15 but there was a lot of interesting stuff going on there since he was drafted. I’d love to hear from people who were there what went on during the curry and Ellis years. Then the 13 and 14 seasons were interesting as well. Anyways, we can revisit this in 30 years when it comes out. Title prediction: the golden era
As someone who grew up in the Bay (was 10 years old for Steph’s rookie year), I can tell you it was indeed a fascinating time.
It probably doesn't need 30 years from now. My guess is somewhere around 10 after Steph retires
Chill StephSexual!
@@hoanghale2671 I mean they just released the last dance and it’s been like 20 years since Jordan retired. Either way, it sucks the warriors denied complete access for a future documentary, well probably only get a fraction of the behind the scenes footage we would have if they allowed everything to be filmed. That sucks
Amazing intuition in that last point (expanding capacity, reducing the tradeoff, free lunch, no opportunity cost). Thank you for these videos, please keep it up!
I haven't watched it yet, but I love that you made this video. This is a topic I've discussed with friends countless times. Can't wait to see your analytics.
The more you talk about Steph the enigmatic he seems do you think that we can actually create a stat that can accurately define his offensive value
I was thinking you could start with how often he's double teamed or how many defenders he pulls with his off ball movement.
You could even give an assist to some of those baskets if it's a defender Steph occupied.
Maybe in the future, but I feel like that's a ways away.
@@ThinkingBasketball I have problem with points per 100 through different eras. In 2021, there are 27 players averaging 30pts per 100 but in 1974 there’s only 3 which is unfair for the previous generation. My suggestion would be using p values (you could use RStudio) and then analyze and use numerical summaries and give it a confidence interval of 99% to see the more anomaly season ps in history. For example, Mcgrady only registered 42 pts per 100 which is lower than guys like Embiid in 2021 and I think it’s unfair for TMac because 42pts per 100 is an anomaly back then as opposed to today. However, if you use p-values, Tmac has a case of being a top 3 scorer in his peak.
The best way is probably use 10000 x (Points per 100 of a player)/ (point per 100 of a team league average)(field goal attempts league average). So a guy like Kobe in 2006 would be (10000)(45.6)/(108.4)(80.6) = 52.19 Adjusted scoring rate.
For Tmac in 2003, that would be (10000)(42.0)/(105.2)(82.5) = 48.39 Adjusted scoring rate
For James Harden in 2019: (10000)(48.2)/(115.3)(87.4) = 47.83 Adjusted scoring rate
This is much better than points per 75 or 100 to make it fair for the pre-2010s era.
@@ThinkingBasketball if this isn't too far outside the scope of a CZcams comment, what's insufficient about current offensive statistics, e.g RAPTOR or adjusted +/-, wrt evaluating off-ball contributions?
@@kingdinodragonite3470 2021 is an outlier IMO i dont think we'll see PPG and ORTG values like that for a while again
I was going to be productive and study but you don’t skip a thinking basketball video 😤
You had my brain doing push ups..love it! Looking forward to more. 👍
Treasure this channel so much. Thanks for the epic content!
I would love to see a Manu Ginobili flash back, maybe in a broader category of "unorthodox players / styles" that deservedly created their own niche. But I understand if that's not a primary interest or up-to-date enough for a video.
Thanks again, for the amazing insights which you present with great writing and humour. I'm advertising your videos wherever I see the slightest interest in basketball :)
Great video like always man, glad to see your channel growing.
It’s crazy I remember three or four years ago a famous clip of Kerr talking to curry during a shooting slump and talking about how tilted he has the floor and how he has his value there
thanks for the upload, love the vids
A collab with J Kyle Mann is what i need in my life🙏🏾😭please
Mann was on the Thinking Basketball Podcast earlier this year following the draft.
@@babyeric link?
They have collaborated in the podcast a couple of times
They collaborate on the Thinking Basketball Podcast quite often
He really is good at his craft, making basketball analysis video. He never makes a boring video
Honestly same thing happens with Giannis as Steph. His offensive load right now is crazy high but it's even higher that what the stat would show because of how consistently threatening his existence on the court is. Double teams and help defense are the only way to stop him sometimes which gives his teammates free looks constantly. That's something that is often not fully considered with some stars, how much attention do opposing teams need to give them and how does that affect their teamates?
Can you make more videos sort of debunking narratives spun by networks like ESPN? I really enjoyed your video on winning bias from a while back and it was interesting how you touched on Stephen A’s focus on basic box score stats in this video
this channel has expanded my ability to analyze basketball far more than anything on the internet
Great educational video. Dropping real knowledge about basketball
Was literally watching another one of your videos when this noti popped up lol
this is not only the best channel for basketball on youtube, it is the best channel on youtube period
Perfect way to start a Friday afternoon
Love it when thinking basketball uploads
Love the game of zone reference!
I have a serious question for you Ben, I remember on one of your stats series videos you discussed how something would be mentioned in part 7. Will you ever finish the stats series or was the fifth installment the final installment. Btw that was a phenomenal series in terms of the way people should think about basketball analytics
Ben's assessment of Steph Curry is spot on. It is also the same way in which he undervalues Dennis Rodman.
Got a classic set of stats to look at.
Wilt averaged 50.4 per game in the 1961-1962 season.
His worst 4 games? 26, 28, 30, 31 - ALL against Bill Russell.
His AVERAGE against Bill in that season was about 12 points LESS than against the rest of the league.
He DID beat his average three times - 62, 53, 52 - but note that two of those three games out of their *12* meetings that year BARELY beat his average.
In other words, Bill held Wilt under Wilt's season average 9 of 12 times, and more of those were WAY under Wilt's average than were over.
This is also the year Wilt managed 100 points (against a Knicks team who had a sick starting center that did not play - his Warriors won 169-147 which is amazingly close all factors considered), 78 earlier in the year against the Lakers in a triple OT game. He also had games of 71 (that's HALF of his 70+ games for his career in this one season - for reference, only *11* have been scored in the history of the NBA, 6 of the 11 by Wilt) and about a half dozen 60+ games that season (more than all but 2 or perhaps 3 players have managed in their CAREER).
Yes, stars routinely affect opposing stars to a measurable degree.
It wasnt just 1 but their 2nd Center also didnt play I believe due to getting into foul trouble. Wilt played his game against a Center ho didnt play all season long and his team force fed him the ball.
@@samraizshoaib585 Their backup center DID play - at least part of the game.
And yes, Wilt was hot enough that his team force-fed him the ball - to some degree all season but especially in that game. #3 that season in FG% for the entire league, nobody hit it better on his team (and the 2 folks in the league that did were fractions of a percent better).
hey Ben, great video as always - but one thing's keeping me up at night today: at around the 3:50 mark, one of the Durants has the upper part of their nose open, whilst the other two don't.
why have you cursed me with this knowledge
Didn't realize you had a podcast. Almost 200 episodes. This should be 👍
Bro this is truly great content. U should b getting more attention.
Best channel for basketball content.
After you mentioned Lonestar, I kept waiting for you to drop a Spaceballs reference. Guess I’ll keep waiting.
Should do a video on why Tony Parker was so good in the paint, love your work 👌👍
I feel like this just shows how good kd actually is
this show how good Curry actually is
@@hoangvyle2293 imagine if they ever played together
@@Natax99Final Lol
@@Natax99Final Imagine how competition and parity breaking that would be.
I think anyone with any basketball knowledge and common sense could come to this conclusion on their own, but I'm glad you make this to create undeniable statistics. If you know basketball, you know that multiple stars on a team will lower slashline stats, but probably increase efficiency. And then the reverse is also true.
The way you put how curry can improve his team’s offense at no opportunity cost really opened my eyes to his impact on court.
Man it’s pure joy seeing theses videos on my feed
Thanks for the vid
Back with another banger
Appreciate the game of zones clip 😂
This made me think of Luka and how much offensive load he carries that inflates his stats.
Edit: No knock on Luka, he's a great player for sure but like the video explained, it's also how effective a Superstar becomes when paired with another massive star.
It's easy to rack up impressive stats when the entire offense revolves around one player.
how is it inflated if he's the one doing the work?? df you mean inflated stats
Yep, same thing goes for every other high USG player. There’s a reason they have that role, whether it’s due to politics or the players ability to generate said stats consistently.
@@Industrious420 what he means by inflated is that Luka has a higher usage rate and load than other players, meaning he has more chances to rake up stats.
It’s no knock on Luka, he’s without a doubt a superstar but he does have a big offensive load.
@@mtaylor1237 right? like it's his fault he has nobody else to rely on hahaha. Does that take away from his greatness at all or imply he's overhyped? I think you'd see his play style excel alongside other stars
@@Industrious420 he’d excel next to other off ball dominant superstars like AD or Klay Thompson for sure. It’s still yet to be figured out how much value Luka brings without the ball in his hands tho.
i love the moment which ben took for stephen A and his 28ppg
Dude you clips you use are so on point, each one hits a key memory from my childhood
you're the best at this
New thinking basketball yesssirrrr
This rookie class definitely deserved your attention, Ben.
I can't wait for his and J Kyle Mann's rookie coverage later on in the season
Handsdown the best bball channel out there!
The fact that KD scoring actually improves both efficiency wise in value wise souls how much of a isolation score he is he’s dependent on it but he’s also great at it.
Do you think guys like curry and rice were actually make him better especially curry where he opens up the floor for Kevin Durant
Rice 🤣🤣🤣
Rice?
Yes russel rice break, never heard of he ham
@@randomperson2540 ohhh ok
KD will be KD with or without steph, being with steph doesn't elevate KD's skills but it does make things a lot easier
We need a Lakers break down and how Russell can fit in.
I mean I would be honored if this channel were to post such a video, but I'd understand if they didn't 😁
I feel like he could make a video, but I feel like it doesn’t really fit the topics he likes to cover, about basketball history and statistical analysis
JUST WHAT I NEEDED
Do one of these videos on Charles Barkley so Shaq can finally stop giving him hell for not having rings!
I think he's said that Charles Barkley was one of the last cuts of the peaks series
@@PIEMAN106 oh so Barkley didn't make the peak series?
@@charlesking4843 nope sadly he didnt
But Shaq acknowledges Chuck's skills and game. He has even said multiple times that Chuck is one of the best players he has ever seen. Having no rings doesn't make Chuck a bad player in Shaq's eyes.
@@daanishgupta lol they’re friends it’s all joking they both both each were all time greats
Holy hell 2 videos in one month niceee
Love the content
We need a Reggie Miller vid. I don’t know why I need one, but I’m convicted.
oh im so sorry to hear. Of what crime? ;p
He's alluded to making a second series if Greatest Peaks was successful - and I feel like it was. So if he does make it, I think that's where we'll see players that he appreciates but hasn't covered - I would expect to see Miller, Dirk, Nash, etc there.
It will happen at some point.
one day this guy is gonna get hired by a team and we'll all realize how we took this content for granted
Basketball tactics of the the future. In the past the focus has been using all the air in the room as efficiently as possible, but with discoveries like this the future is to get as much air in the room as possible
This is why I always preferred teams to have maximum 2 stars because you of the players greatness with more mouths to feed leads to more sacrifice. KD is so amazing I will always be disappointed in him joining the Warriors, look what he did last year he was absolutely amazing and a baby toe from beating Bucks off his shoulders mainly 💯.
We may need part 2 on this about Manu Ginobili
We need you to do an Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes video. Seems like they are definitely your type of guys
When he got to the curry section it reminded me why I’ve been telling people for years even though Kd is a better player he isn’t. In a vacuum he is but in practice. It’s advantage Curry.
They way I've looked at it is that KD is the better individual talent but Curry is the better team player. Meaning that Curry's playstyle and skillset has an easier time synergizing with his teammates' skillsets, while KD is more of a solo-carry style and skillset.
Had to pause and leave a comment after the Westbrook clip from Game of Zones. Perfection.
When the world needed him most, he returned
Golly, these are good videos
u should make a video on which team is the greatest ever
The anti KD bias isn’t even hidden at this point lol. It’s not KD’s fault he was the best player in GSW. He’s literally posting record efficiency in Brooklyn without the guy you keep claiming creates open looks for him….
Why is this channel not 1M subs?
Astronomy metaphors are god tier
Would love to see this take on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum
you were wrong about KD's numbers going down when not playing with Curry after what I saw him do against the bucks in last year's playoffs and current regular season.
GSW system is centered around Curry so obviously if everyone plays off of Curry without Curry they look bad. In Brooklyn they run a heavy iso offense which KD thrives in very well; pretty much all of their stars are iso heavy so it wouldnt affect him as much in that system.
Lol kd wishing he had Steph now
I used to call it the “Devin Booker effect” when Booker was on the lousy lousy suns and the Warriors were stacked beyond belief.
People would take shots at Steph for only putting up numbers because his team was so filthy, so I used that logic and said “So Booker would average 35 on the 2017 warriors” crickets…
Obviously, many many more examples throughout history. But the conversation really heated up about the “ease of putting up numbers” in regards to the warriors greatness.
This is huge
this dude posted more videos in the past month than the past 4 combined lol
He posts more during the NBA season. Makes sense.
@@robertlowe6367 i ain’t complaining. this is heaven for me. i’m just praying the 5 thoughts series returns🙏🤞
curry and bird are so similar its unreal
11:24 Well, they do call him Chef Curry. So, the idea that he makes more pies for other players kinda makes sense.
I got him, Steph and Jokic, followed closely by Giannis, as the top players in the league right now. KD is a monster.
Jokic is crazy, he’s somehow better than last year.
you should do a video on the worst player with most usage in nba history
Waiting for a video on Dirk Nowitzki’s athletic Prime from 2001 to 2007
KD is unique in that he can play in the guard or forward (and occasionally center) positions seamlessly. He is a chameleon whose skills fits on any team which is not something most nba superstars have ever been able to do. Already a top 10 to ever play and will likely end up a top 5 when it is over. That said, has any mvp played with so many different other mvp players when both have been near their prime?
Can you do this one on lebron? Because I feel it maybe different because of his natural lebron system
This is a really big and interesting question I always have this debate about LeBron there’s always people who argue he improves players and then there is always people say he doesn’t hopefully this helps.
Lebron improves role players who would only be shooting without him anyways. Steph curry is the greatest at elevating star players ever and that is something lebron would never be able to do unless completely remodelling his game. His inability to do so was the reason they lost in 11
@@atlasterigo4828 in combination with D Wade’s lack on doing so and bad spacing, but I agree with the point non the less
Lebron is equipped to bring high schoolers through the regular season and to the Finals.
@@dusk6159 No he isn’t. Hopefully you were being sarcastic.
@@cycleoflife565 Watch NBA basketball and its past seasons with James in Cleveland.
Very very very nice
I’m not seeing podcast #91 that you mentioned anywhere? Is it uploaded?
This needs to be broadcasted to all of NBA Twitter with a mandatory watch before you log in
these stats are showing this season too. kd is easily averaging 30 because he’s the best player on the floor and as of right now, can’t rely on harden
U see he ain’t show he’s nets stats curry Stans 😂
Great video, but why is Jalen Rose's face on Klay Thompson's body?
One doesn’t experience self-transcendence, the illusion of self only dissipates . 🎈
KD plays to the team. If the team needs for scoring, he will do that; we saw it last playoffs. When he was a warrior he knew that passing was needed for the team to be successful, compared to the thunder when he was pretty much the only shooter and by far the best scorer. Same thing happened to Kobe.
Don't ever sign to ESPN we need more real people like you in the game.
Ben, given that KD's numbers are visibly lower with a ball dominant point guard, perhaps if he teams up with a POINT CENTER, we would have the most efficient offense ever? Just imagine KD with Big Honey in the same team. Two 7f giants with ultimate scoring and passing Oo
You need to do a review on Russ
This is why if you were to build a team from scratch, Steph would be on it every single time.
Steph, Lebron and Jordan are all next level in terms of offensive dominance. Most high level combos of scoring and passing in NBA history.
@@geordiejones5618 jordan really?
@@dt-lg2oc Jordan has a strong argument as the best offensive player ever
@@kingjaydex7464 I get it but he is a bit to ball dominant
@@dt-lg2oc Jordan is less ball dominant than LeBron
I would like to get your take or your numbers on what happened to Lebron when he played with Wade, i didn't see/hear it in this video or the podcast. I always thought they where a bad fit for obvious reasons. Both need the ball to be effective and both are not good of ball players, especially Wade.
I have problem with points per 100 through different eras. In 2021, there are 30 players averaging 30pts per 100 but in 1974 there’s only 3 which is unfair for the previous generation. My suggestion would be using p values (you could use RStudio) and then analyze and use numerical summaries and give it a confidence interval of 99% to see the more anomaly season ps in history. For example, Mcgrady only registered 42 pts per 100 which is lower than guys like Embiid in 2021 and I think it’s unfair for TMac because 42pts per 100 is an anomaly back then as opposed to today. However, if you use p-values, Tmac has a case of being a top 3 scorer in his peak.
The best way is probably use 10000 x (Points per 100 of a player)/ (point per 100 of a team league average)(field goal attempts league average) .So a guy like Kobe in 2006 would be (10000)(45.6)/(106.2)(86.5) = 49.64 Adjusted scoring rate.
Or simply (ppg/ team’s ppg ) x 100
It is stupid. You're kobe fan and don't realise the number of shots he takes.
Also having your rating higher than 35 means it's unhealthy.
@@user-bm9cv9vn2k im talking about volume tho. RTS% is already there for efficiency. That's why even if Kobe might be the highest volume scorer ever, I still think 1988 Jordan is the best scorer ever simply because of his insane efficiency and having a top 5 volume.
A guy like Garnett was the most prolific scorer in 2004 with only 1960 points and only averaging 33 pts per 100. Today, that wouldn't even make it in the top 15. It's unfair for guys like him to simply say he is a worse scorer than a guy like Miles Bridges because Bridges is playing in an offensive-friendly era.
Points per 100 possessions is not entirely related to volume because it has a hidden variable already which is efficiency (its name is literally points per possession) and the fact that you have already rTs% for the efficiency metric makes it inconsistent for different eras.
@@user-bm9cv9vn2k Note: This is just pure volume. So a guy like Kobe in 2006 would be (10000)(45.6)/(108.4)(80.6) = 52.19 Adjusted scoring rate.
For Tmac in 2003, that would be (10000)(42.0)/(105.2)(82.5) = 48.39 Adjusted scoring rate
For James Harden in 2019: (10000)(48.2)/(115.3)(87.4) = 47.83 Adjusted scoring rate
This is much better than points per 75 or 100.
@@user-bm9cv9vn2k For simplicity sake:
Eras A and B each have a pace of 100 possessions.
Era A however, only scores 80pts per game.
Era B scores around 120pts per game.
The leading scorer in Era A (let's say his name is Player A) averages 30 pts.
The leading scorer in Era B (Player B) averages 38 pts.
Since both eras play with the same pace (100 possessions):
Player A averages 30pts per 100
Player B averages 38pts per 100
So according to Thinking Basketball, Player has higher VOLUME because of higher pts per 100. For me, the answer is no.
That's why we have to keep it fair and divide the era's points per 100 so Player A = 30/80 x 100 = 37.5 and Player B = 38/120 x 100 = 31.7.
I do use a linear adjustment for volume as well -- see my video on "Adjusting for Inflation"