Is El Niño really getting worse?
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- čas přidán 6. 04. 2024
- Average surface temperatures across Europe soared to 3.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in February 2024. The global average was almost 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial. Some say this marks the start of Abrupt Global Warming. So, is that true?
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Research Links
April 2024 : News of South-East Asia heatwave
www.theguardian.com/environme...
World Metrological Organisation March 2024
wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-we...
Severe Weather Europe
wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-we...
NOAA
www.climate.gov/enso
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...
IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023
www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-asse...
Johan Rockstrom at Frontiers Forum 2023
• Johan Rockström | Plan...
Original Guardian Articles
www.theguardian.com/science/2...
www.theguardian.com/environme...
www.theguardian.com/environme...
www.theguardian.com/environme...
Just Have a Think videos on AGW and ENSO
• El Niño 2023 could be ...
• The heat may not kill ...
• Blue Ocean Event : Gam...
• Methane: The Arctic's ...
• Arctic Methane. Has 20...
Check out other CZcams Climate Communicators
zentouro: / zentouro
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Simon Clark: / simonoxfphys
Sarah Karvner: / @sarahkarver
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Beckisphere: / @beckisphere
Our Changing Climate : / @ourchangingclimate
Engineering With Rosie / engineeringwithrosie
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Planet Proof / @planetproofofficial
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I'll leave my opinion here. I'm not an expert, I'm not a scientist. I am an observer of the nature of my country, Brazil. I'm 70 years old and since I was a teenager I've been interested in environmental issues. During my life I have lived in many Brazilian cities. I don't need academic knowledge to see that my country is becoming hotter and drier due to human action. I only studied the reports about the forests and animals of Brazil, made by nature observers 100 years ago or older. Nature has become impoverished, we have lost insects, birds, fish, reptiles and mammals. Rivers have lost their regular volume of water, are either dangerously full or almost dry. Mineral extraction, animal husbandry and monoculture have destroyed enormous areas and continue to do so. I could go on, but I think people with common sense will be able to understand what I'm saying.
What happened to Brazil is happening to the whole world. The difference is that here we still have a lot to destroy. We still have large forests in the northern region. Brazilian environmental agencies are barely able to take care of what happens near large cities. The Amazon region is practically impossible to monitor. News about the Amazon belongs to the political game. The real Amazon is different and it is slowly dying.
For me it is very difficult to understand how there are people, and even scientists, who do not see the dangerous level of destruction that we have imposed on the planet and its obvious climate consequences. Do I live in a world of blind people?
.
So sorry. I am 72 so know what you are saying. For us who have been intimately connected to the biosphere for most of our lives, and who acknowledge reality- we need to accept señor Dave’s equanimity and not be too connected emotionally if that is possible. We need to accept what seems inevitable. The whole thing makes perfect (bad) sense, but maybe there is no “bad” in cosmic reality. 🤷🏽♂️
@@johntresemer5631 I hope you're right.
Hard to believe? Speed up.
Yes - kinda blind. Don't respect live. They act like on cocaine.
Germany is a highly industrialized country -> All forests in Western Europe are cultivated forests - such forests are inherently poor when it comes to biodiversity. WE hardly noticed that it got much worse -> there is already little there anyway. A 75% decline in the insect population is dramatic and dangerous.
Plus we are blind because we are rich. An other way to say 'Corrupt'
Yes - most people are blind - at heart. Thank you.
I grew up in NYC. When I was a kid, we had fireflies in my yard, lots of them, even in the city. Now I live in Pennsylvania and fireflies are rare. I don't know if NYC has any fireflies anymore, especially if Pennsylvania barely has any now.
Here in the United States, it is the younger population who is protesting about doing something about it. I think it is a spiritual issue people are distracted and cannot think straight.
4:30 I think the critical part to understand about global warming is this:
Weather is just a matter of how the energy is distributed in our atmosphere. This can change quickly. A local change of 1.5°C can happen within minutes and isn't much at all.
Global warming is about the TOTAL AMOUNT OF ENERGY in the global climate system. This value only changes very slowly, and a global increase of 1.5°C means a massive increase in total energy.
I'm glad I'm not the only one trying to point this out. Calling "global warming" was totally misleading from the start! It's all about stored energy... Energy has the nasty habit to morph from one kind to the other constantly and only going away from the planet as infrared radiation.
A lot of the temperatures were in countryside’s and where urban areas have expanded then so has the heat island effect. It is a grift because there is big money in it. That does not mean it isn’t a thing, but the one concern I feel is pollution in the oceans. We get 70-80% of our oxygen from there and that is the thing that I think has a greater threat to us. Turn that off because of the pollution and we then will have a problem. Under 18% oxygen and fire becomes harder and we as a species depend on fire. Over 30% and the world becomes dangerous also as fires will easily start everywhere.
There is so much complexity but all we hear is alarmist stuff or denial. There needs to be a middle ground where people actually talk and start solving the big problems like pollution.
"This value only changes very slowly" How do you know that?
@@MasterBlaster3545 and a flat earth will be cooled by the breeze anyway
The planet is a system the same way our bodies are systems. We know as human beings that a change of a few degrees in our bodies' temperature is enough to make us ill or kill us. The planet isn't necessarily "sick" or "dying," but that's only because those concepts don't apply to planets. It is, however, being thrown wildly out of balance due to its fever, and we aren't adapted in our current state as human beings to live on a planet with a fever.
For the last 26 years I have been living in the French Pyrenees mountains in the departement of Ariege. 26 years ago winter temperatures at my house (500m altitude) got down to -15C for about four weeks, the coldest night recorded was - 19C. We regularly had snow in the garden, once 60cm in one go. The snow would stay around for upto 6 weeks. In a nearby town, Ax Les Thermes 720m altitude, the deepest snow depth there from a single snowy episode was 80cm. Now, at home it hardly ever snows, frosts were unusual this last winter ( ie night time temperatures in the middle of winter were above freezing). The coldest night was -8C which occured on four nights the whole winter. At Ax Les Thermes there were three episodes of slushy snow that was gone in two or three days, and up at the Ax Les Thermes Ski station (1400m to 2400m) many nights were not cold enough for the snow cannons to be used and natutal snow fall was well below normal. At a photo exhibition at Ax Les Thermes there were a series of photos from 70 years ago……… snow in the townup to about 1,6m, snowdrifts on the road up to Andorra of nearly 6m high. The change here is mind blowing, temperatures here yesterday 31C, on the 7thApril!! In my opinion observing the changes here the warming is definately speeding up. We used to get very wet springs, which provided a lot of water for evaporo-transpiration from trees, which produced clouds, which heated rapidly in July and August leading to lots of end of the afternoon thunderstorms with the sky clearing by 7 in the evening for barbecuing……… now the springs are drier, the snowpack melt is nothing like it was. The water cycle is broken, few summer storms and water scarcity worries especially in the neighboring departement of Pyrenees Orientals. All extremely worrying !!!
thank you for sharing. We look to the poles and Greenland, but forget about the Alps and the Pyranees as weather indicators for Europe.
48 years ago President Carter touted alternative energy sources and cutting reliance on petroleum fuels.
40 years ago, President Reagan had removed all of Carter's initiatives and brought back "drill, baby, drill", and lower MPG levels for cars.
Why do Republicans think Reagan was so great? He killed our education system in California and lowered taxes for the wealthy.Fortunately, most of his supporters have passed on.
and only 4 years ago or so DJT and the hacks gutted the environmental protection agency, clean air act, and water protection acts. to trade your health for thier money.
I work outdoors, after last years extreme heat I’m already worried how I’m going to cope again this year. I feel for anyone worldwide who doesn’t have access to shade, air conditioning, drinking water, and an employer who will support a slower pace of work. It sounds simple in the U.K., but even here it’s not a given
And last year wasn't the worst we've had. In 2019 by 11am you couldn't do math. Doing carpentry was very slow
Oh, I thought I was just getting older! 😅
I wish you well.
@@andywilliams7989 I usually can't do math till around noon. 😂 /teasing Lot's of my family are roofers and I don't know how they do it. It's so hot on top of a black roof with the sun beating down in summer.
It’s slower been getting colder in the Midwest. In 1988 we had over 60 90 degrees days now we might get 5-10. Winter stays longer and fall comes early…
No, Mr. Dave, your messages are not alarmist or contentious. Any reasonable person who considers the facts and data should be genuinely concerned about our planet, at this stage. Please keep up the great work!
Yeah, well said 👏 these are the same people who would say your part of the global elite trying to control us with fear, (while presumably exon et al are plucky family run firms trying to fight the global elite), and the same people who use climate science to try and attack the same scientists who helped establish the data 📈🤪 it’s an odd one, but then they have been trained by years of propaganda and conspiracy theories to not see the truth for the convient lies 😔 however, 30 years ago I was called a crank for discussing climate change, habitat loss and global pollution and that has changed, there’s far more awake to the danger and the loss, which gives me some hope ☺️🌀
This channel is one of the LEAST alarmist and most fact driven channels on climate change. He provides the latest information with little personal opinion or comments.
bless ur hurt
No one must be concerned about our planet! Our planet has enough time to help itself. But all of us should be concerned about conditions changing rapidly! These conditions and environment that brought us to life and we depend on and that are changing to unlivable so fast 😳
Taking a quick five day holiday to ski, or fly to the other side of the USA, or anything else like that, all if these only make things worse. Are we willing to consider that our actions also contribute to this situation, and stop using or use less fuel in the future ? There's a lot of talk, but little hard individual action ! Just global generalisations. This is not to underestimate the blame that rightly falls on the fossil fuel companies.
Rachel Carson talked, I listened. I've been an gardening organically ever since (1970). They say if you want to know about climate, ask an ornthologist -- it's kind of the same with gardeners. Did you know that plant cells burst at 105 F. I lost plants last year and am getting everything planted as quickly as possible this year in anticipation of another hot year. I planted 5 more shade trees. And I'm planting more food because I know that most people don't understand the implications. End game is we will probably starve before our cells start bursting from heat. We could change that and work on adaptations, but that requires admitting the problem exists. I appreciate your honesty.
I've had a plague of sickness in my fruit trees and a huge increase in insects. It seems to run in extremes. Both hot and cold, summer and winter.
Like you I've farmed and gardened PacNW since Earth Day. The average global temperature in that 50 years has increased by only 0.8°C, so your problem is NOT fossil fuels, rather urban heat islands expansion and deforestation. Seattle NSW climate station is situated on 53,000(!) acres of concrete and asphalt, openly admitting their 'climate record' summers are showing +10°F - +14°F hotter than surrounding exburbs, ... _but about the same in winter, when it rains for six months._ That PROVES this is just a Climate Charade. Clearly blaming fossil fuels is an anti-human pogrom by Government and Academia and Wall Street, _to increase energy prices and to steal our productive farmland with their 'fart' fatwahs._ *Stop IPCC!*
Plant cells also burst when Na and K are reversed in concentration( low K/ high Na).
Many alkaline soils are affected,( mine included).
@@williamevans6522 Thank you for this. I know there's a big problem between available K and usable. I am in an Ice Age Flood valley in Central Washington--a 1/2 mile wide valley where 2 tiny seasonable streams still exist. But it is rocks. mostly stream bottom potato rocks and sand upon which flood waters probably sat for centuries evaporating. I have built some decent soil on top, but wonder if there is a deeper Sodium problem.Is there an easy way to test soil sodium?
@@williamevans6522 Thank you on this. Bought liquid K and will do trials.
I've only subscribed to a very few channels, and yours is the first that I've become a Patron. I appreciate all that you do to keep the world informed! No commercials is amazing too!
In SE Minnesota this year we for the first time in my life didn't have winter. The frost line in my small town of Dover only reached 3 inches. I only had to clear snow once. I'm 69 so I've seen a few winters. This scares me for my grandkids.
In SoCal. We've had unusually stormy winters for the past 2 years. We've had them before but I don't remember ever having 2 stormy winters back to back. It was always regular or dry winters in between stormy winters.
Here in Ontario Canada, we didn't have snow on the ground this christmas. Also the snow melted early in February.
The winter of 1887-1888 in the Twin Cities averaged 29 degrees between the months of December and February. So there could be cycles involved and it is not as dire as people make it out to be!
First I want to say
how I appreciate the show for the info conveyed.
I, a concerned lay person, who takes in way too much info on CC, do live my life as if we're somehow going to correct CC, and things will just go on with no problems...lol...but, most of us realize we have serious problems, and no ability, or time, to correct our more serious problems.
I think humanity is down to decades before we accept we've overshot sustainability by a longs ways, and there's little we can do to even adapt to the changes we realize are about to do us in.
I, in my mid 70's, will be long gone, but my kids and grandkids will still be here trying to survive. Which will become harder and harder to do, and eventually impossible.
Certainly not for billions, maybe for a few million - I don't know - seems to me if the projected warming, and oceans rising, happens...no amount of 'feel good' platitudes are going to help.
I say by 2100 there will be very few things alive, if any.
Sad to say, but that's what it's looking like to me...glad to be an older person.
@@o_o8203 surely you must be grateful for the added precipitation in an era of drought ?
Thank you, Dave. I'm 57 and an ordinary citizen with no degrees in any relevant area concerning climate chaos. I can only tell you that living in Rio de Janeiro and being a gardening and climate buff, In Rio this year alone the heat index reached an astonishing 62.5 C. Several of the native tropical plants I cultivate have perished and I have been keeping my AC unit on since early spring of 2023, and now it is early fall 2024. I'm baffled to find so many people in my generation and younger ones in complete denial about climate change here in Brazil.
Brazilian nuts were the best nuts until these climate problems but now U.S. trump nuts are the nuttiest and Brazilian nuts a distant 2nd.
The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.
@@user-xs6ok5bp3y Yes, I agree with you sir on Death Valley but I mean "heat index" which is completely different. The temp on that day reached 43 C but humidity was at nearly 100% with no wind, so the heat index scored 62.5C. In Death Valley, humidity hardly surpasses 12% and that makes a huge difference.
@@martiusyamamoto1578early fall 2024? It’s barely April.
@@goldmine4955 In the Southern Hemisphere, autumn commences on March 21th!!!!
The money's there, the knowledge is there, the capability is there, but on every level of society the will to act is almost completely absent. The scale of what we are getting hit by is too abstract, too complex and too colossal for the vast majority of people to even process yet alone try and take any meaningful action on, and you would be hard pressed to find it enough of a priority issue among any of our political, business or civic leaders to show anything resembling urgency.
Yep. Plus the sole purpose of Life is competition to the death. Of course.
Huh, I live in Devon. It’s rained everyday since September!
Its not just that the will to act is absent, or the idea is too abstract. There are incredibly rich and powerful forces actively trying to convince the world its all lies, and there is nothing to be done. If not for the profit motive, this issue would already be solved.
@@ElectricAlien577 Exactly.
This is the first video I have watched in a while because I’ve always been a catastrophic thinker. I just finished a degree in environmental practice and all I want to do is put my head in the sand. My instructors would say, I wouldn’t teach this if I had no hope but I’m not optimistic. I’m terrified, I don’t trust the world and I think the more disasters we see the more we will be in response mode rather than planning. Where I live in Canada we are in extreme drought. Anyways, I try and just live right now as watching this sent my anxiety up. I try and just appreciate what we have.
I would prescribe Hannah Ritchie's book - Not the end of the world. She looks at the data from a distance to see the trends. Without being naive, there is some room for optimism. There is a Ted talk summary too you should be able to find.
Tx for another important video topic.
Prof Rockstrom has identified 9 planetary boundaries for a liveable planet - climate being one of them. Good news, we have exceeded 6 and are about the exceed the last 3. Happy days!
What everyone keeps forgetting is that while planetary cycles are continuing as per normal (such as El Nino & La Nina), GHGs in the atmosphere are increasing at alarming rates and this will always make everything slightly worse. The problem with the enviro is that its pretty resilient right before it isn't - like a hair that breaks the camel's back. Everyone keeps going fine until it doesn't, and then its too late - putting a broken ecosystem back together is incredibly expensive, resource intensive & requires lots & lots of time (everything the world DOESN'T have right now).
There are 16 critical ecosystems that, once they tip, will also impact the climate in ways best avoided (and they could cause other ecosystems to tip - like a game of dominos). The complicating factor is that they are also being impacted by threats other than temperature, meaning they could be even more vulnerable to climate change and may collapse earlier than predicted solely on climate factors alone. Everything is interconnected and its very difficult to fully understand how each little break in ecological systems, processes & services could have an even greater impact on the wider system (like a tiny crack in a support beam that results in the complete collapse of a structure). We are literally "playing with fire"...
and heros like Musk burning tonnes of rocket fuels every day. the hypocrisy is inreal. were pretty much doomed to lose so much life on the mined and polluted planet
Tell China to stop building coal fired power plants to power their industries.
And exactly how long have these observed alien climates been “measured”? You’re talking science fiction claims, not reality.
Thanks, Dave. I'm up on all this stuff, so I'm just happy to see a popular communicator like you do a great job of digesting many hours of poorly-recorded lectures, Zoom meetings, hefty papers, and questionably written news headlines with snappy writing, wry delivery, great graphics and meaty footage.
Well said! 👍
Thank you. I appreciate that!
I live in Austria and we are for the last week experiencing temperatures of 30 degrees, even in the alps. That is 10 days earlier than the earliest on record and extremely unusual for this time of the year.
Dave you seem to have pitched this climate crisis perfectly ; concise, accurate , well considered information and slightly perplexed person presenting it as dispassionately as is possible, nobody else I know is doing that and you are performing a community service to the world , WELL DONE!
In Perth Australia , I am sitting now listening to the first real rain in 8 months , we have had the longest drought in 150 years and the temp has gone up 1.5 degrees on average . farmers are being advised to euthanise stock and large swathes of forest is dying , to top it off last year globally was the highest CO2 emissions ever .
If we have any chance of having a liveable planet for our children we have to act like Our House is On fire as a very wise person once said . I praise your common sense and commitment and recommend you to every person who is able to think ( that's narrowed it down a bit ) . Thanks
It was above 25 degrees Celcius here in The Netherlands this weekend, that is what we call a warm summer day... never happened before so early in the year... How many data points you need to call it a fact or a clear trend?? I think we are already there.
Never? Or never since it was observed? My grandfather once told me his ancessors legend about few years in a row without a winter.
Surprised. Here in the Basque Country has been cold-ish (regular early spring temperatures, even slightly cold) since El Niño weakened (per the reports), however most of the winter was very unusually warm.
Many will NEVER EVER admit it , ever.
I've never questioned climate change. Just that it's only related to CO2. CO2 makes up .04% (thats four one thousandths of one percent) of the atmosphere.
@@ireallylovegod Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
James Hansen explained the recent spike in sea surface temperature as resulting from a decrease in aerosols over transoceanic shipping routes due to a switch to low-sulfur bunker fuel. Paul Beckwith analyzed Hansen's paper recently, and the paper itself is available online. Less aerosols -> fewer clouds -> lower albedo -> more energy absorption by the oceans. Shipping routes and the number of ships are much bigger than one might have noticed.
The sulphur emissions have been masking the effect of CO2. We urgently need to put sulphur into ship and aviation fuel, before more tipping points are reached. Hansen thinks the IPCC models are badly wrong. I think he is correct.
more energy consumption means water temp rises and more chaotic weather, not less
Of course, the immediate real answer would be to remove all those sulphur scrubbers put on power plants, manufacturing facilities, smelters, refineries , etc. In the 1980s and 1990s to combat acid rain.
That’s not the cause of this. It was the Tunga Hunga volcanic eruption that mostly vaporized sea water increasing the H2O in our stratosphere by 10%. It’s expected to take a decade to dissipate.
@@_B.C_
Really?
I heard a climate scientist explain that even when both the sulphur reduction and the Tunga Hunga volcanic eruption were taken into account, they weren't nearly enough to explain the extra oceanic heat.
Still, you can always find the real experts in the YT comments sections!
Great video as always. Thanks for the excellent presentation.
Over populated and use of plastics unbelievable. I get depressed when going shopping. So much plastic in one store!
I will be watching the 2024 hurricane season to see if I should freak out. As if the run up to November isn't stressful enough.
Don't hurricanes tend to hit red states hardest? Could hurt GOP turnout. That's a lot of homeless people needing a hand.
I don't think the GOP would lift a finger.
Ron Desantis will come to their rescue in his white rubber boots...I know it's gonna be bedlam when the 1,000,000 new Florida residents since 2020 have to deal with hurricanes.
Here in Austria we reached 30 degrees just today. This temperature has never been reached so early in the year since temperature is measured, i.e. since more than 200 years.
February was so warm, it would have been #16 in the row of warmest March months.
So far the year 2024 is 4.5 degrees above long term average. It's crazy ...
It is indeed crazy
In India, i live in a small town called Raichur. Here, the temperature is 44 degrees. 😢😢😢
@@karank2456 How will you survive this summer? How are you planning to deal with the wet bulb temperatures?
Drinking enough water and all types of fruit juice, sleeping on a wet bedsheet, using only cotton dresses, not going out when sunlight is burning, will help a lot
Yup, here in Czechia, we had the first tropical day record (30° C+) on 17th April _1934_ ; not anymore, now it's 7th April 2024 :) I get the feeling air conditioning salesmen are going to have a good year...
I've done what I could with my budget, by purchasing efficient appliances, improving my home, going to work by bike, eating responsibly and so on. This is a problem for the governments. But as soon as the governments put some legislation in place to force people to upgrade their homes or their car or anything like that, they lose consensus because most people don't want that saving the planet is done out of their pocket.
I don't see a solution. So we're headed for very difficult and sorrowful times.
it isnt our pockets the issue, more the fact they are frigging empty
Until corporations take responsibility for the changes that need to be made, at their own expense, we will see no improvement. In fact, corporations are doing everything they can to make sure they DO NOT take any action, as it would wipe out their profits. That means that CAPITALISM is the problem, mass extinction is the by-product. The ruling class shall have it no other way,; they are under the mistaken notion that they can successfully leave the planet when the time comes.
Even if that pipe dream were a reality, how many of you think Jeff and Elon will take you with them?????
Individual responsibility is a lie told by Shell et al to make you feel responsible for their actions. Unless those companies are reigned in nothing you can do makes any noticeable difference.
Those with the least cannot be expected to shoulder the cost. Governments must act to ensure the least well off benefit financially from the switch from burning fossil fuels. Otherwise the popular resistance will be so great that all attempts to improve the situation will fail.
@@tortenschachtel9498 100% agree
Thank you. Your shows are so well done in all aspects.
I'm from Chile and I have never had such a warm march, like the maximum is still 23°C on some days and then next week it will drop to 12°C climate is swinging like crazy in Araucania region and the rest of the world.
You present the bad news so well, I really appreciate it!
Thank you :-)
No solution though.
@@lawrencehalpin6611 I'd love to hear your reasoning behind why this CZcams channel should be capable of providing (and implementing, I guess?) a solution to global climate change. If you've watched previous videos, you'll remember that there is a wealth of information about innovations in technology, climate action news, political developments and scientific data. A CZcams channel can't provide a solution to a problem so difficult and you shouldn't expect that it could. What it can do is focus information and those who seek it into a single location.
The solution is external. It comes from people taking action in their lives, but more importantly, holding accountable the companies which commit the greatest crimes, and forcing change through political and social action.
@@disky01 You are promoting the climate change agenda. So you have a responsibility to put out the solution. Other wise you are part of the problem. Tell me what you have done t stop climate change. What have you given up.
@@lawrencehalpin6611 We know what the "solutions" are - eliminate carbon emissions, eliminate waste, implement clean, renewable energy, find alternatives to harmful nonrenewable materials, live in balance with the natural world, preserve life as much as possible. The problem isn't something one CZcams channel can solve for or fix, it's something that takes the combined effort of governments and organizations around the world.
It's arrogant to demand that a CZcams channel tell us all how to fix it, as if the solution is that simple. He is doing his part by providing news and information and the impetus for action. Individuals are a small part of the problem. We need to be informed and we need to demand change through activism and political action, but it's corporations and governments which shape our lives who actually need to provide the lion's share of the change.
As for myself, I vote, I take part in action campaigns, I donate to organizations, all of the energy I use is renewable, I rarely drive, I eat very little meat, I minimize the amount of water I use daily, I don't spend recklessly or make wasteful purchases.
I'm staring out my window at incessant heavy rainnfall, torrents of water flowing thru the yard and sodden fields...
Livestock cant be let out of sheds, crops can't be sown. Bar a day here and there, its been raining for 9 months. Record rainfall numbers.
It's difficult to accept the benign climate I grew up in is gone. Chaos will now be the norm for the rest of my life and indeed, for however long humanity will last. It's shattering really.
Th El Nino may have measured as one of the strongest on record but it was a fizzer in Australia as we had better than average rainfall when it was forecast as being a hot dry summer.
Farmers were very angry because they had sold stock and prepared for a drought that never happened.
As the crisis grows, names like Niño and Niña will both simply turn into a constant "Adulto."
Clever i like that!
🤣
😁
This one is deserving of one of those über cool Mexican wrestler names.
Though "cool" is not the proper cool adjective here 😂
El Trumpo!
In matters of the human condition and our future. After an in-depth, unbiased, and analytical review, I am an optimistic pessimist in that I am quite positive we are screwed. Cheers 🥂
Decades ago, I think I was 80/20. 80% optimistic, 20% not. Now, I am not even at 20% optimistic. More like 5-10% 10% optimistic on a good day. The rapid changes I've seen and personally experienced in just the last 5 years have made me a realist. We'll skate by until we no longer can.
i resemble that remark
@@KB-iv5dz It is why I left the US. The climate is one thing but the added toxicity was over the top. Regardless of what advances mankind makes, you can always count on humans to set the world on fire. Between greed and ego, I am not certain which is the greater evil.
@@KB-iv5dzNo long term hope?
@@arnoldbailey7550 you can leave the US but most of us cant leave the planet, and those that do have to come back again.
Our weather in the UK has been terrible. Constant rain, leading to floods, crops rotting in the field, cattle unable to pasture, building construction
Well done. Great show. I love how well-referenced your material always is. Thanks!
Your videos are excellent btw Dave, no dramatics, just telling it how it is. keep it up!
Thanks, will do!
Sometimes the problems are more nuanced, maybe don’t blame it all on CO2/AGW.
Maybe in scientific circles there’s enough of a consensus to agree we are seeing and feeling the affects of anthropogenic global warming (heating) (AGW). I live in a village in North East England which sits alongside one of largest forest in my county. My house sits very close to this forest, which I regularly walk in. It’s a private forest split into four, with four separate owners, and in the main is a working forest, there are some areas which have ancient trees but majority are pine trees. Several years ago walking in the forest I could hear chain saws, I then came across one of the forest managers, Just as background for what follows our area predominantly has got its potable water from boreholes, but now also from nearby river system. I asked the forest manager what they were doing, he told me they were cutting out an area of the forest where the trees were not as healthy as they should be from lack of water. I said is this due to climate change, expecting him to say yes. Instead this is what he did say: The water table has been going down for some years, I again asked if that was due to climate change, he said I don’t think so, he could see I was trying to get him to say it was. Well I asked what do you think is causing the problem, he replied, people, farming and water management. Please explain I asked. Well the village and surrounding villages and towns have got bigger, result more water usage. The farmers are now growing root vegetables, leaf and cash crops that require lots of water, first signs of a dry spell the sprinklers go on. And lastly the water company is taking water from our area (a 24 inch pipe had been installed over 45 miles) to feed city areas down south, which have grown. So It’s easy to blame CO2/AGW, but even if we were 100% clean green energy the increased POPULATION would still be causing this predicament
Appreciate your transparency about our predicament ❤ keep this important content coming…it’s all hands on deck with this topic. Aloha
@LuluCaswell. And don't forget to rearrange the deck chairs on your way down!
Mankind does not avoid problems, it solves them when they have happened. What happens when the only solution is avoiding the problem ?
Human beings cause problems, and then rather than actually fixing the problems they've caused (because that would interfere with profits), just slap some duct tape and spray paint on it and look the other way. "Mankind" should be called "Manstupid"... our species is incompetent.
Nicely done. I watch all your videos and appreciate your realistic and grounded way of communicating. One request I would like to put forward for consideration is the use of the shaking effect when scenes change- I and many other people have seizure disorders and those fast side to side effects can make it really tough.
Agree totally with what you are presenting once again. Thanks for doing all the hard research to present it in such an understandable way. Really appreciate it even if I don't like what I'm hearing.
Cheers Kelvin :-)
We stand precariously close to acute food and water shortages!
The oil industry is going to be feeling it this year in lots of places with reduced snowfall on the mountains rivers that many of their operations get their water from to process with and are going to be fighting farmers who also need the same limited supply of water. I had some numpty trying to argue that rising ocean levels meant more freshwater in the rivers.
This is what most don't understand. One large out of range heat event during the growing season and half the world could starve six months to a year later.
@@erdelegy 18 KG bags of rice are cheap and buying dried beans in bulk is too, if you get an instant pot you can get a bazillion calories for cheap with minimal effort and tasty food.
The food shortage is not being caused by global warming it's being caused by governments killing livestock and refusing to allow Farmers to farm. Many people today don't even know that farms are where food comes from.
@@erdelegy I think they seem to think most rivers flow inland from the ocean and are filtered into freshwater along the way.
thanks for the clarity
We need one of these shows every three months, so refreshing to hear you gathering this information, cheers
Wonderful as usual. I think you nailed it on this one.
Cheers Dean :-)
At 7:02 minutes, you say "nudging down to 2023 levels"
But 2023 was a record breaking hot year, so that can't be so good 🤔
Anyway, the sky's falling down at the moment here in Ireland, YET AGAIN 🌧
Thanks for publishing, really enjoy your talks.
I'm growing carbon capture devices by the way, Eucalyptus trees 😉
hempp still wayyy undr used
Bit of Brit humor 😜
I would add, as long as global temp remains under British, or Irish, average summer temps, it can't be all that bad 😅
Mate, take it from an Aussie, you don't want eucalypts. Sure, some of them can grow fast and take in a decent amount of carbon, and they even have a pretty timber that looks nice in furniture or floorboards so you can keep that carbon locked away for a decent amount of time while you grow a new tree in that spot to continue taking in carbon.
The problem is that eucalypts really like a forest fire. Eucalyptus oil becomes explosively flammable when it gets hot, and it can progress a fire by jumps of several kilometres at a time. Eucalyptus leaves are pretty dry even when they're "green," and contain enough oil to overcome that water and catch fire. The shed bark and smaller branches are also extremely flammable and create a litter of tinder under the trees. For the trees, this is a very efficient way of killing off all other plants in the area that might compete with them for nutrients, and reducing those competitors to a nutrient slurry that will wash into the soil for the trees' roots to take up. It doesn't matter that the trees have lost all their own leaves in the process, because they have epicormic shoots just waiting to provide new growth fast.
Also, in hot weather, eucalypts will drop entire large branches in order to conserve water. We teach our kids in primary school never to shelter under a eucalypt on a hot day because too many people who did that wound up dead. And if the mechanism that causes the branch to fall doesn't work completely, you'll have a branch standing there that looks perfectly sound and healthy until one day it just drops without warning - it doesn't even need to be a hot day when it happens, and it might have stayed where it was through a storm and then it falls down in a light breeze. So we teach our kids never to pitch a tent under a eucalypt, or even within the fall radius of the tree, because sometimes the whole tree just falls over for no discernible reason. When there *is* a reason, of course, that's why state and local governments hire crews of workers to drive up and down major tree-lined or forested roads all night any time there's a big storm coming through, chainsaws and fuel in the back of the truck so each time they find another tree across the road they can cut it up and get it out of the way. Ordinary citizens are advised to stay home in that weather, but we need the roads clear for emergency services, and eucalypts just don't cooperate with that idea.
Please save yourself a whole lot of grief and plant trees that aren't out to kill you.
Thank you for continuing to make these videos! I find it so helpful to have a channel I can go to to get all the updates and research on climate change. I really appreciate what you are doing and please keep it up!
Check out Paul Beckwith's.
I had a lovely weekend, and frankly, the happiness was all getting a bit much. Luckily, I knew exactly where to come 🤣
If we expect global leaders to do something about it nothing will be done.
That's because in the democratic countries at least our global leaders depend on the stupid general public to be re-elected.
but thats what we have. we dont make the legislation. they do.
Not just do something. He said they need to cooperate with each other. As if. It is more likely for aliens to come first that that. It is the exact reason Ĩ am absolutely certain the issue will never be addressed.
It is not up to the politicians. Every individual must change their lifestyle, quit travelling, stop driving and flying and living an off grid lifestyle, which still won’t be enough.
@@SueFerreira75was about to write the same thing.
I used to think there was a chance to overcome the issues we've created but with all of the other issues now around the world i now doubt that any effort some people are rightfully making simply will not be enough. Humanity is simply turning into conflict.
Tis our nature, humans are very hateful creatures😢
Yeah, half of American wouldn't wear masks to fight Covid, they're not going to except higher fuel prices.
Assume crash positions
In 2020, we saw how the world deals with an invisible threat. We saw that even on something global like Covid, we suck at working together as a planet. Unless it's war, we can't seem to work together on anything else.
@@KB-iv5dz "working together requires "equality" for everyone and that flies in the face of "hord it all" capitalism we all were "tought" from society and constant ad bombardment is reinforcing
@@jasonriddell It would appear that no matter what "ism" mechanism we use it never works for everyone. There will always be someone taking advantage at some point.
great show here- glad you keep showing up
Thanks for the update
Hi I look and listen to all your videos. I think you do a well balanced and informative tutorial. Thanks
Thanks Malcolm
Thanks Dave, tough stuff.
Thanks so much for all of your insightful reporting.
Very informative, thanks man, keep it going!
Thanks but we still have the difficulty of educating the masses who still think love island is the only important thing
Escapism.
@@yodab.at1746 brain deadness
I'm more concerned about the alarming trend towards carnivore diets. The car is about to crash and some idiots think more gas is the answer.
I want to live on Love Island ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤!
@@jomckeag4482 sadcase
I'm 70 and started driving a car in 1971. Driving in the British countryside on summer evenings was tough because the car windscreen would quickly become smothered in squashed insects, making it impossible to see the road. Windscreen wipers just made it worse. I remember carrying a sponge and some screen cleaner. So the point of all this, is that I now live in the countryside and driving on summer evenings you don't see one insect on your windscreen. So if you want evidence of environmental decline, there it is. Oh plus the fact that it has rained almost non stop for three months Jan- Mar 2024.
That reminds me of the Ernest Hemingway thing about going bankrupt. Slowly and then all at once. In the 90's I had to drive all over the country fitting car alarms, we were always washing the cars an vans cause of the bug splatter. You don't see that anymore. I did read that some people attribute it to neonicotinoids that we now use on crops.
Modern cars are more aerodynamic, my car may have a few less bugs on it, but my caravan has just as many
@@gillianchisholm6432 That's an interesting hypothesis. Might be something to it, but I think other ways of measuring insect populations will probably say they have decreased.
You need to look at your number plate and not your windscreen Cars much more streamlined today
Or the use of fertilizers. The plowing of fields and certain crops kill the insects. Crops like soy, sorghum, kills millions of insects. In America they import billions of bees because these crops kill all the local ones.
I live in South East Asia, Malaysian in the island of borneo. Currently, it's hotter here than previous years. Even at night, it's hot. Not even taking a bath in the middle of the day would help much.
You have a very good channel.
I think we need to start talking about how we are going to survive 3-4 degree rise and not about how to slow it down. The conversation of slowing or stopping it is not happening amongst the people who run our companies and countries so that really isn't an option anymore.
I totally agree. I'm a gardener trying to convince people to love their earth and it will love them. We have to adapt our growing methods to meet whatever and be prepared to survive as a species. My personal vision is underground, multi-level geothermal habitation. We can live at 55F but brain cells start dying at 104F
@@judithmcdonald9001 I don’t think people realize by the end of my life just how much of the earth we won’t be able to live on or grow food on in the summer. Hopefully we will still cooperate enough technology will help us adapt but it’s going to be rough.
How is merely "surviving" an option when it's going to massively affect your DAILY life? Solutions such as air conditioning only worsen the problem. Africans and people from the Middle East are already used to dealing with very high temperatures, for folks in Europe and North America it will be a bloodbath.
"At three, the world begins to run out of food, threatening millions with starvation. At four, large areas of the globe are too hot for human habitation, erasing entire nations and turning billions into climate refugees." See the book of Mark Lynas. That world is not where you want to be. Every tenth of a degree matters.
@@JoachimJacob You are so right! As a gardener I know that plants stop growing at 105 F. Higher than that and cell walls burst. Osmosis stops. India is hitting over 120 F there have undoubtedly been more deaths than human. The basis of life on eath for us has changed. We will go underground or back into trees.
Here in Kolkata, yesterday was 9 degrees Fahrenheit above 50 year average….2024 may be scary
I’ve never visited India, but decades ago I had an apocalyptic dream about your city. 😱
OOooooh
It will be very tough there.
Well u can move out
Always stellar content. Thank You
Thank you for the thoughtful information
The key statment made. Was “ first time in recorded history”
Just north of Toronto, Canada and on February 29 we had a major rain storm with thunder and lightening!!! Never seen that in my 59 years.
only been about 12 feb 29ths tho folks
we lost all our snow during that rain storm
@@user-mv5ek8ix9o lol
Another great video!! Thumbs up! Thank you! Jim
Thank you for your informative and interesting videos!!
I am 58 - so will (hopefully) miss the total catastrophy coming. I just feel increadibly sad
You might well live to see it yet.
@@tomheeks2830 I kind of hope so, I've no retirement savings.
Sorry, you will have to come back and reap what was sowed. Do you really believe you were spontaneously generated at birth and will turn to nothing when you die? If that was the case, you would never have existed at all. There would be no trace of you, would there, since you would not have any knowledge of ever having existed, since you wouldn't exist. Learning about climate change is superb...learning that you will come back in another body, maybe in one of those places that is devastated terribly, might be a BIG WAKE-UP CALL for not just you, but all of humanity. They might actually take it seriously then, and not think they're going to get out alive and leave their mess for their grandkids to clean up. They will BE their own descendants. Count on it.
You are sad because you will not witness the end of our society as we know it?
@@heww3960 Morbid curiosity. 🌪️🔥🌊💥
We're also during sun maximum now, so maybe it's correlated
17th November we passed 2 degrees C. Then again for 2 days in February.
We ain’t getting out of this one alive. Sadly.
Thank you for what you do, and doing it ad free
What to talk about, if here in Germany we have a summer weather now already. In the beginning of April! By the way, I think it's not only the air/water temperatures that contribute to the warming effects. I can literally feel the sun is much stronger than before (~25 years ago, when I was a kid). I think many can feel it with their own skin, that the amount of infrared and UV radiation has increased since then. I am wondering if scientific observations confirm this
I wholeheartedly agree with the comment. I also live in Germany, it was 26C in Düsseldorf yesterday. Not only that but after only 5 mins of sitting in the sun in the morning when its still only 16C or so, I feel my arm burning from the sun. It is indeed as if there was more UV. Just my anecdotal experience.
@@SRSR-pc8ti Same here in Portland, Oregon, of the USA
Coronal mass ejections (CME) are at a high--I agree the sun IS more intense whether or not it is hotter and we don't have coverage that softens it. It feels like the thin air of a high mountain peak on a cloud free day (rather unlikely, but it happens). And remember in winter the sun is closer for us in the northern hemisphere=use your sunscreen. Love, Mom.
I reckon the shit will hit the fan when there’s no more summer Ice in the Arctic.We all know what happens to our drinks on a hot summers day once the ice has melted.If that happens to the oceans there will be a huge jolt of heat in the northern hemisphere.
Look up the AMOC System and Beaufort Gyre release .. Leading to a Heinrich warming event. You're not far from the truth.
Did you just compare a drink to the Arctic Ocean?
I think he was referring to and giving an example of heat of fusion.
I went on a sea safety course a few weeks ago and one of the people with me works on the research vessels that go to Antarctica. Usually these ships have to smash through a lot of thick sea ice to get where they’re going but he said there was none the last two years
More clouds get created from the ocean evaporating causing a cooling cycle believe or not :) Lots of storms!
Your analysis is exceptionally well balanced. Thank you.
great video as usual.
Ever heard of Guy McPherson?
Mcpherson kicked me into a non return doomer orbit 9 years ago
As I understand he isn't too much active these days, compared to his lectures from ten years ago.
At least as interesting is Arctic-News.blogspot.com to which GMP used to contribute.
James Hansen just published two papers, one Jan, 12 and another March 29 entitled: Global Warming Acceleration, Causes and Consequences and Hope vs Hopium, respectively, questioning the current models the IPCC are using denying acceleration. Would like to hear your report and what you think.
I live in a big city in Canada. James Hansen's assessment of pointing out how reduced sulfur in shipping fuels.That took place in 2015 and 2020. Totally checks out. With 2016 and 2021 summers being the only times we've experienced weeks with forest fires being so bad that smoke lingered in our cities for weeks on end.
I'm inclined to believe that he is correct 💯.
I think IPCC has some politics going on just on normal human level - they don't want to be very alarmist, because it has potential to introduce openly nihilistic POV to whole thing. People like James Hansen think actually scaring people might bring fruits. I will have to point that it is unfortunately not that clear cut.
Said that, I think we all agree on what we need to do. We might agree about how much it will save us. But doing nothing is just....no.
The research shows that basically we are working to maintain 3C without some form of carbon sequestration and everything is going to happen decades faster. I used to think I was a pessimist thinking in 30 years 50% of population would be gone, now I think I am an optimist.
My review of Hansen (and some of the push back from others like Michael Mann) will be out mid-September to coincide with the annual Arctic Sea ice minimum.
@@Pecisk Thanks for your response. However, never thought of James as an alarmist or wanting to scare people. If anything, I think his soft spoken demeaner and awkward shyness and being intimidated by politicians has kept him from being more outspoken.
You are doing great work Dave, it is never great hearing news like this but it is absolutely essential that we are aware of all this, we all need to take more action for our lovely planet and for all who enjoy it
Great video once again with great insights
So long, and Thanks for all the Fish 🐬
Oceans will be empty by 2050.
Those fish will probably be canned oil slicks.
I'm beginning to lean on the thought about the kiss our BUTTS goodbye. In the United states we recently had a major bridge destruction by impact of a large cargo vessel. The president of the United states ask for Congress to provide money to fix the problem. The majority in the party said sure as long as the president would rollback climate initiatives. This goes to show you how powerful big oil actually is.
The senate really said that..!?
Really??? Thieves.
@@Campaigner82no
Once again, you're spot on with your observations. Thank you.
super glad you mentioned Rockstrom. he does amazing work and that panel was a great watch, I implore everyone to take the time to watch it
Interesting how you're comprehensively knowledgeable about topics that you talk about. Glad to be among your subscribers.
Thank you. I appreciate your support!
"At the edge of extinction only love remains." McPherson
This is true and not just the emotional. If you love the earth it will love you back. But people are being warehoused in apartment buildings and have no contact with their mother earth.
@@judithmcdonald9001 Thanks Judith. Driving through the countryside in NZ today with my wife Elizabeth, I said wouldn't it be good if every faming family adopted a city family - so they could get into the countryside to 'live the weekends' there. That'd reduce some tension and anxiety, increase reality, and perhaps provide time for discussion for addressing these issues. Expand the thought! I know Guy - he's a super person. He's been here in NZ talking to and with us. By the way, Angelina Jordan sings 'we can go on to together with suspicious minds', not can't. So maybe each farmer adopts a few families! I'm in Whanganui NZ Jonathan Parson. Was 82 on the 12th!😇
With the average temperature of the Atlantic ocean at a record high, the hurricane season this year will probably be a doozy especially for the Caribbean, and Louisiana and Texas here in the U.S.
I'm 57, and in my lifetime living in southern Australia, it is definitely getting generally hotter and drier. We are experiencing over a month of temperatures at least three degrees hotter each summer. Even the other seasons are warmer. Autumn is coming later and we had five days of 39-40C degrees in a row this March.
RIDICULOUS. The BOM is infamous liar on temps. Examine the unadjusted and historic late 19th century records. It was much hotter then, mate!
The Polar caps are the planets airconditioning system. Once thats gone, its game over.
Ice surface area is shrinking but the thickness is almost gone , used to be meters now only a few cm's
Final boss defeat sure enough!
Nonsense
The Ocean absorbs the most heat, with reaching thermal equilibrium with the air, it will begin to heat the air, instead of cool it, we are in for it in the up coming decades like no one understands clearly, .
Yup we're doomed. As Kurt Vanaugaght said.. The only species to ever kill their own planet to make a profit.
were being torched in puerto rico atm. 87f reported but also extreme weather warnings with >110f. took me 5 mins putting the shopping in the car yesterday to get heatstroke. ive only been here 11years but its seemingly ramping up, locals all say its getting much worse.
lol i hear ya
I would argue that the national governments have been sitting on the climte change problem since the 1896 paper by Svante Arrhenius, where his model predicted that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would give a total warming of 5-6 degrees Celsius. We have gone from ~250ppm to 420 ppm CO2 already.
Great job Thanks!
John Doyle tells us that the amount of energy required to melt the ice, applied again, results in its evaporation - with the ocean acting as a charging capacitor in this circuit. He gives us no more than 10 years. Difficult to refute.
That's not quite correct on a smaller scale. It takes a lot of energy to evaporate water. The amount of energy it takes to melt ice can bring water from zero to 80 degrees Celsius
@@fehzorz cant get much more energy tjhan the sun shining on an ocean
The methane issue from the permafrost seems like the final straw. Can't stop it.
And a Massive Thank You to You...🎉
Thanks for that.
If the situation is alarming, then alarmism is rational and useful.
*Only* if most people are rational
while the climate is getting worse the steps we have to take is getting larger, and now the solutions are so life changing that it is almost impossible to talk about it....
so here we are, stuck.
We really should have acted 40 or 50 years ago. Now we are running out of time and nowhere close to finding a way to deal with this as a planet. Some countries have made great progress. Some have made mediocre progress. Some haven't at all. And industrialized countries are too stingy to help industrializing countries quickly transition away from oil. Especially when they are unwilling to do it themselves.
@@KB-iv5dz ang young folk to fix it lololol
Thank you for speaking out about the problems we face today
Howdy, (I don’t know your name), thanks for your videos, always interesting and worth a thinking about.
It’s been an evolving awareness since the early days when it would have been an easier fix.
Thanks again
His first name is Dave.
Thanks Dave for another great video. We really need to find a way of more effectively dealing with those who do not believe in science yet continue to be given platforms on MSM.
1. Please tell me that you aren't advocating the censorship of people who have a different view of 'the science'. 2. list the names of people on MSM who challenge the whole drive to reduce C02 (utterly pointless at a 'local' scale). Did you "follow the science" during COVID? I did. Did you agree that people spreading "misinformation" during COVID were rightly 'shut down', I did....but when it all became clear how selective and misleading data was presented to us, I felt duped. I will now always champion the right for those with apposing views to be given a platform, to suggest otherwise doesn't help your cause.
What difference does it make?
China and India are burning stuff and do not care. They have the biggest populations.
So if I eat a beetroot burger instead of a hamburger it makes f-all difference when China and India are pyromaniacs.
You are the channel I trust to deliver me the information I don't want to hear..
Love your work. Amazing
Thx. This is where I stay updated on climate news. 👍