‘Deep electoral trouble’ for the Conservatives after Andy Street loss | Sir John Curtice
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- čas přidán 4. 05. 2024
- “Unless they can persuade voters to stop wanting change in the first place, they’re still heading for a pretty bad result in the general election”, says Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at University of Strathcylde
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The conservatives think threatening to deport immigrants to Rwanda, Calling out democratic protests and attacking disabled people is going to make people very excited to vote conservative 🤯🤣🤣
😂😂😂
Good on them for trying to deport illegal immigrants.
The metropolitan unliberals are clueless
But they DO make a certain kind of person all excited.
@@LordOfLightBraverman is wetting herself.
it work for Susan "racist" hall 800,000 knuckle draggers and gammons voted for her .
The CONS are finished.
Not necessarily, we will soon find out in Autumn..
@@pennymcneela7095 There is no recovery from this defeat. Have a bit of faith and confidence that Labour will win the general election. We cannot afford another Tory government because the country is now broken. Ok, hope that helps.
That because if sunak
The analysis is simple. It could be a little better for Labour, but it could not be much worse for the Tories. No surprises really.
Good! Maybe tories will have a bright ideas and do a last minute leadership swap and in thier wisdom deliver another fruit nut like Nadine dorries as leader and PM and make it even worse for themselves
I am fine with Labour not gaining as long as the Tories are losing. The other parties are democratic and the UK need to learn to cooperate when FPTP finally are removed.
Be reassured.
Labour 1,158 councillors 186 councillors gained
Liberal Democrat 522 councillors 104 councillors gained
Tories 515 councillors 474 councillors lost
There is nothing wrong with FPTP all you PR algorithms are merely a way of removing democracy. If you want to win an election put forward policies that people want and dont rely on some bizarre mathematical formula to cheat your way to power. One person one vote counted once and the person with the most votes wins simple fair and effective.
@@deeingalaplike My reply saying much the same thing has been removed what ajoke this place is
Do you se FPTP ever being abolished?
Be careful what you ask for. Getting rid of FPTP will get you coalition governments, but not necessarily more effective government.
This government has no mandate anymore. General election now.
They still have a majority so yes they do. Just because you dont like them does not mean they dont have a mandate. Elections have consequences
Neither do Labour
@@sylviabaxter265That's why an election is needed. Even after that the vote for the govt, whoever it is, will be by the minority of people. 56% didn't vote for the tories last election.
@@royboy565but that is the fault of those who don't vote.
@@rodbenson5879No, the figure I quoted is of those who voted. Every election since the 1950s have given us govts who never reach 50%of the votes cast. Nobody can possibly know what non voters think.
Loved the Tory explaining his sides unpopularity. Basically, it's all going great, people love our agenda - FULL STEAM AHEAD !!!!!
Let them go full steam ahead faster if they want. If they not bright enough to realise people don’t like what they do tgen all the better for the country
I hear they have a plan and are sticking to it.
@@marksimons8861 Though God knows what their wretched 'plan' is.
Why all the focus on Reform, they were beaten by housing associations and came last with 2 seats?
Because the majority of the press are funded by offshore right wing tax dodgers who must push hatred for profit
They have money to make noise
@@rosiegiesler4705 - And everyone wonders where that money comes from.
Did he mention Brexit. I will never lend my vote to any individual or party that connived at the catastrophic exit from the EU and replaced it with diddly squat. To all intents and purposes, this mean never vote Tory or Reform as they both have a track record of promises they cannot possibly fulfil.
We have had 14 years underinvestment and mismanagement of our country under this government. It's madness to think that Labour can turn that around quickly with the economic mess the Tories snd their hard tory Brexit have left..
Downplay Labour all you like, their massive majority is coming.
No it isn't, numbscull.
🤣
A majority. I do not think it'll be massive personally. Looking forward to it though!
@@davidk7262Starmer has Galloway breathing down his neck, he made a point he would stop Starmer from getting in to number 10.
😂😂😂
FPTP has to go. It is totally undemocratic. But neither Labour nor the Tories want to, as it works in their favour.
A struggling economy. NHS struggling. Public services hammered. Military cut. Sewage in our rivers. The rich getting richer. The best they can come up with? Leave the ECHR according to a former home secretary on BBC just this very morning.
They just want to take our rights off us so they can move closer to a right wing dictatorship
Exactly, they are deluded if they think culture wars is the way to go.
@@TheVicarMarxism is Left Wing .
There is one word that everyone seems to have forgotten. That is Covid and the ramifications that caused.
@@colinc.8742Even before covid we had record NHS waiting lists and a record debt then of 1.3 trillion, it's now at a record 3 trillion. This is the worst govt ever to hold office in the UK.
When going to work every day and then not having money left after bills and food, that is the biggest problem no matter who is in power. Anyone who gets out of bed in the morning no matter what job you do should always prosper!!!!!!
@@tolremWoof!
I don’t know who is more delusional, Sunak thinking he might win or Starmer thinking the demise of the Conservatives is anything at all to do with him.
Sunak looks more like Comical Ali every day.
What if a dolphin stands in each constituency? One beat Farage before
Dolphin's are extremely intelligent creatures, so we'd probably be a lot better off with them than the Tories.
It's odd, gets elected as an MEP for 2 decades, the very place remoaners want to rule us.
Ensure that happens ... just to keep Farage in check ...
Sounds fishy to me.
Depends what their porpoise is...
The Tories are done! They should never be near power again.
Ifbe had an iota of honesty and decency in him Sunak should throw in the towel and call a. National election now
IF......
Labour could have won every council
Seat and still that's not good enough. Goodness me.
Locals are nothing like GE. I vote green for local. Labour for GE.
Me too!👏👏
Please, be smart and vote tactically. I just want this incumbent out, they're dangerous. First it was the EU and now they're gunning to take away our rights by leaving the ECHR.
Do you want your head feeling if you vote Green the Green party is a destructive party founded or no basis at all totally fake agenda
If you love your country vote reform it Could be your last chance to save Britain
After 15 years of economic mismanagement you dont turn it around in a year or two. Low growth, dire public services and high taxes takes a lot to overcome. If Labour has indicators such as these turning around by the end of the next parliament, they will be doing well. Starmer needs to manage expectations and make this clearr.
Yes, but GB is now stuck with Brexit. Labour cannot reverse this.
The Brexit ruin is actually going to get worse once trade controls and border controls actually start (not that this will stop Brexit immigration whih can no longer be stemmed as GB is not a signatory of the Treaty of Dublin).
@@Andrew-vx2ls Brexit Re-entry Vote for 2026 is on the cards after Labour win.
@@IntelligentArtefact Ask anyone in Europe, GB can do all referenda it cares to, but re-entry requires the agreement of the 27.
You seem to think that everyone wants to see the English back!
Given the xenophobia shown with brexit, it is highly unlikey before the 40s. You seem to forget that brexit cost many people their livelihoods and pensions.
Keep down playing Labour vote it helps us door knocking.
Wait until the general public see Starmer vs Sunak on the 6pm & 10pm news everyday for a month.
So you think that they're in trouble now do you? Meaning they weren't in trouble last week? They've been "in trouble" for years, let's not pretend otherwise please.
lol reform what? they barely performed
Look at their wonderful performance: 2 seats!!!
Vote reform get islam
People have found out about Reform. And what people want is REAL chicken. Not regurgitated sludge.
Are the plebs still voting for the tories?
No, no one is.
@@anonUK Funny, 800,000 idiots in London did !
Lots of people are 25% ffs
25%, yes, but the real question is why.
Plebs, racists, the thick.
Labour are unstoppable. ❤
They don't have a majority and Galloway is hoping to stop Starmer from getting in number 10..
@@pennymcneela7095 Galloway who?
@@erikaverink8418🤣. He’s awful
@@erikaverink8418 Yes they probably are, but you will regret it.
@@colinc.8742 Let's hope they tax you to the limit.
I think what should really concern the Conservatives is that there is not a great deal of enthusiasm for Labour and they are still doing so well. What happens to the Conservatives if Labour do gain power and start to turn things around? It will be fresh in peoples minds for some time just how bad the Conservatives have been and how well Labour are potentially doing with the same problems.
You are a dreamer. Labour have as much chance of turning it around as a super tanker in a canal. They will be off on another tax and spend spree as they have always done. The unions will be looking for a return on their investment. Best wishes to you.
@@colinc.8742 Typical right winger self before others every time, spread the fear because you just might have to give something up for others.
Every time those on the right take charge economies crash and wealth moves from the majority to the few. Then you blame every thing else for the failures.
We've had fourteen years of crashing the economy, corruption and ineptitude and you and those like you think we are heading in the right direction.
Under the guise of market economics we have water bills that are higher with poorer service while the water infrastructure has been allowed to erode and fail. We have rivers and seas polluted with raw sewage all in the name of a rush for greater corporate dividends.
We were told that the free market would give us lower prices with better service in all the utilities and public transport. In reality we have higher prices, poorer service while still increasing taxes to pay for those at the top to get more.
Under these Tories we have the highest increase in taxation since the Second World War and a total erosion of services. While at the same time corporations have increased their profits so they can pay their executives huge bonuses and give their shareholders increased dividends. Then when those dividends are not enough they have borrowed money to pay them more. When the debts are due they demand the right to get extra subsidies or to put their prices up so their customers pay off the interest on the loans.
You can't turn a tanker around in a canal because the Tories have allowed the canals to leak so there is no water for the tanker to even float and the canals have eroded away so there is no workable canal left.
But you and those like you don't want to see that because you have been convinced that if you keep in line then one day you may be able to get your nose in the trough. Thankfully the people of this country at some point in the next nine months are going to have the opportunity to put the Tories when they belong, in the garbage bin hopefully to be put onto the land fill site of history.
The tories have ran out of room and an election needs to be called and held asap
It’s the will of the people. 🎉🎉
I am extremely glad that labour has not advanced much: the other parties must get a look in. Labour will govern better if they must co-operate with the SNP, Greens and Libdems.
Rishi: "STOP THE VOTES!!!!!!! Its our prrrrrrrrrrrriority"
What on earth are Labour meant to do about Gaza, rather than performative tub-thumping?
Start off by accepting that it is NOT OUR FIGHT.
@@IntelligentArtefact Oh, grow up.
Excellent summary , thanks.
It’s very clear how the public is going to vote any thing but Tory. #StopTheTories.Vote
Will Rishi have the guts to call an Election.
Not until he has to. In the meantime there's still plenty of money to siphon.
When the India Trade deals in the bag and his Mother-In-Law is installed in the Indian Parliament
It looks like the plotters have decided that the Tories are going to lose the next election and it's better than Rishi goes down with the ship than to call an election and have a new leader defeated at the ballot box in a matter of weeks.
In which case he'll probably try and cling on for as long as possible in the vain hope that there's a big enough scandal to hobble labour or the economy experiences some miraculous recovery.
Not until he's got his trade deal with India.
No
How many Tories will defect to the Monster Raving Loony Party in the next few months?
Civilised & caring 📺 TV channel like the people of UK 🇬🇧. 🌹 Great tolerant country & people
Sunak has dug his own grave .
Stop the Boats .
The tories got an absolute drubbing and Murdoch's employee here trying her best to paint it bad for labour, Bring on the general election so we can kick these rich tory prats into touch.
26 point swing in Blackpool
"Tis but a scratch"
With a 30% Turnout 😂@@TheVicar
@@julieclonan2427 Yes. The proportion of the outcome resulted in a 26 point swing
Are you suggesting that if there was a much greater turnout then the proportion would be any different?
@@TheVicarLet them cling on to something..... Johnson gone in disgrace, brexit is a disaster, Rwanda plan a shambles, poor tory luvvies.
Yes we’re voting to remove the tories obviously. Sometimes that’s not voting for Labour, I’ve no problem with that, let’s just get it done.
Tories are Toast. 😂😂
Tories are left, nowhere near centre ground.
PLUS CONSIDERING WERE LABOUR WAS AT LAST ELECTION THE RESULT THIS WEEK ARE WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS SO VERY GOOD STUFF FROM STARMER ARMY
I believe Prof. Curtice may be able to identify loaded questions when he hears them.
I think a lot of the move away from the conversatives is due to Sunak. The man is too glib and clever for his own good. Everytime he opens his mouth he doesn't appeal to ordinary voters. The party needs a popular leader but I fear they have to find one even away from their ranks.
Sir John Curtice is earning his coin this week😅
My Familoiy and I are voting Reform in the General Elecdtion, Reform qwer not even on the ballot paper in the by-elections in some areas so papers were spoilt of a protest vote was made.
True but there has to be a start sonewhere to turn thibgs around
volume is super low
What time will Nigel Farage be appearing. Must set my alarm clock.
Hopefully he goes the same place Trump is looking more and more likely to go.
He's on Trump's gravy train electoral cycle. How very patriotic of him to follow the money and poo on his fans in the UK by cashing in over in the USA
If Labour hadn’t antagonised the left so much and U-turned on so many policies that were genuinely popular with the public they’d likely be polling close to 50% and the Tories would lucky to retain 100 seats. They haven’t excited voters at all yet.
Don't need to. That's not the point.
what an absolutely absurb comment about labour vote share at the end. The tory vote was crushed because voters in different locations voted for labour or lib dem where it hurt the tories the most. And that's all with the backdrop of the gaza issue which still didn't dent the scale of labour wins such as West Mids major.
Starner cant get in by default. Tories need a new leader
Starmer will be a disaster lookbat his posse
Labour are fine, doing rather well actually. Sure a number of those on the left are voting Green to try to push Labour leftward. In a GE many of these will return to vote Labour. Also in areas like Blackburn, Oldham and Rochdale, though Labour may have lost a few votes owing to Gaza Stance, where are the Tories? Labour will still be 50+%, the tories will not benefit from this. Another thing to consider is that Labour a likely a decent majority on basis of these results alone. Reform stood candidates in 10% or so of seats. If they stand candidates in most parliamentary constituencies, the tories will be almost completely wiped out (
THEY SAY GAZA AFFECTS LABOUR AND STARMER BUT ALSO SUNAK IS RIGHT NEXT TO STARMER IN THIS SO TORIES MUST OF LOST MILLIONS THRU GAZA
Its only having a slight effect, which was skilfully calculated within the electoral strategy
Labour couldn't allow the Tories to use it as a dividing issue, so Labour had to follow suit with the Tories stance
Its time for people to understand that politics in the reality is not one of binary ideological positioning. Leave that to religion and social media drivel
Tories OUT OUT OUT.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the electorate
Laura Kuennsbeggar and GB News will still collaborate with Daily Mail and Express to undermine the Labour Surge.
Sir John Curtice at 1:43: "Though Labour, frankly, [unintelligible] at the measures have not really advanced since last year, and one might have expected that they would have hoped to widen the lead over the Conservatives a bit, because that's been the message of the opinion polls."
Labour have had a consistent lead of about 20% over the Conservatives for about 18 months now, at least according to Statista (google for "Statista Voting intentions in a general election in the United Kingdom from July 2017 to April 2024"). The Conservatives' polling for the general election has now dropped below 20%, and is the lowest since polling began.
Mate, it's not Labour who have to worry about the state of the polls.
Count Binface
The Tory Party doesn't need to lurch to the right as some have suggested. It just needs to dust off and read the 2019 manifesto upon which it was elected and start implementing what it promised to do. Up to now, with the possible exception of leaving the EU, it's been doing the precise opposite and given us a high tax, big state economy, wokery in public institutions, nanny statism and a ludicrous and unaffordable green agenda.
No it just needs to go.
@@royboy565 It is too late for them. I will be voting Reform.
I think the Conseratives are underestimating the amount of people who blame them for locking them down. I get Labour would have done it but the Conservatives actually did.
On medical advice. Hospitals full. What would you have done?
Fact is most countries in the world did the same thing. It's 14 years of poor government policies and all the lies and corruption that has caused the tory plight.
@@nicks4934 let everyone make there own decisions. If you're scared stay home.
They actually did it and it had no result whatso ever yet they still talk about individual rights and liberties
@@royboy565 no point moaning at me, I had zero say. What I can do is blame them and I do.
5 years of a Labour government will be the final nail in the coffin for the UK.
Yeah for tax dodgers
Tories made the coffin, painted it, polished it, and have been putting nail after nail in it for 14 years.
How's the BNP and EDL and UKIP candidates that you voted for, been faring?
I don't like these 2-3 second teasers that Times Radio do at the start of their videos........this ones a biased anti-Labour take but that's not particularly the point, they take the subsequent discussion out of context and make for a confusing listen.
Don’t be gloating too soon we have seen this before when a party loses many council seats but then wins the main election.
When?
@@BlyatimirPootin I can’t remember precisely (I am an elderly person) but I do seem to remember this many years ago. One of the party’s did well in the council elections but never made it to government in the main elections. This was a shock at the time and was blamed on the weather.
This is not a mid-term protest vote, the general election is months away, and what we've seen up and down the country is tactical voting in a determined effort to dislodge this parasitic government that leeches off of it's the people and provides nothing in return (so gloat I will).
Never happened
Maybe so, but we're looking here at a long trend of which this election is only another step.
we need to get the lie tory out now
Thumbs down bc of the white supremacist ads being pushed by YT.
You open a video about the terrible Tory election results and it starts with a cut from John Curtice saying Labour have not really advanced since last year - this has to be the most transparently Tory station going, so embarrassing for you 😂
The real electoral trouble will be if a Labour government is elected. Having lived through a few of them I wouldn’t wish it on my enemies. It will end in tears as it always does.
.
Tory government has been worse.
@@problemsolverthinktank859 You clearly are too young to remember.
@@colinc.8742 I am. I grew up under Cameron and was born under Blair. And I’ll say that Labour before I was born I don’t know about but Tories today, I’m sick of and there’s some new people in Labour now and younger more progressive ideas so I hope they win!
People would bite your hand off for what Labour achieved from 97-10, strong economic growth, well-funded public services, NHS that worked and investment in education. The Tories have been an utter shambles compared to what Blair delivered.
@@allrednow Why was he kicked out then? Memory can play tricks. Remember he inherited a very strong economy and blew it.
Andy Street has done an incredible job for Birmingham and the West Midland region. Birmingham City Council which has been Labour for many years have gone bankrupt and guess who the voters went for in the regional Mayor election this time around? Yes you've guessed a Labour Candidate. Watch this space.
Andy Street got the money he asked for from central government, where as Labour councils get choked off by the Tory government
Birmingham was one of many councils to go bankrupt.Tory councils have gone bankrupt also. 25 councils or on the brink of bankruptcy.... Common denominator is the slashing of funds from central govt. Wake up!
Funds are from central government - and to use Sunaks own words he made sure funding went from poverished/ poorer areas and into Tory ones cos he thought that was the right thing to do as Chancellor
Remind us again who was in charge of the council when the dodgy pay discrimination was being carried out.
I'll wait.
25 councils are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy due to underfunding.
Just get him gone in the real election vote reform 🎉
The uniparty will win, like they always do.
There's always a party at the Uni, especially when term starts.
Nonsense
Its to prevent their right wing viewers having an even worse Sunday than they already are
I blame the Doctors and the communist Unions
I blame silly people like you.
Don't be a silly Billy!
Yes. It's always the doctors' and workers' fault when we get sick and have nothing to eat ?
Eh Margaret?
There is 25M immigrants living in the UK ( within one term of a Labour government and their open border policy there will be 35M) over half of our nation ( well done the Reform party for helping Labour win) LOL.
Do you actually believe that
What is the source of your statistics? Where does the 35M number come from?The government (ONS) and the 2021 census says 10 million residents born outside the UK 43% of whom hold a British passport www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/analysisofsocialcharacteristicsofinternationalmigrantslivinginenglandandwales/census2021#:~:text=Our%20earlier%20release%20The%20changing,%25)%20non%2DEU%2Dborn.
In the absence of government enabling the training and incentivising of people to do the jobs performed by immigrants, Britain will need immigrants to do the jobs we don't do ourselves. This will never be done by a Tory government because they leave it entirely up to the private sector. Plus the Tory Party has a culture of contempt for good governance.
so what youre saying is that you would not even be qualified to pick fruits much less work a trade or in white collar
@@TimesFM4532I think he's counted everyone from the Beaker people onwards
Vote Reform.
Don't be a silly-billy.