One lesson from the Ukraine war that should be sobering for Taiwan is that having the USA as a friend and ally does not protect your country from utter destruction. As someone with a deep affection for the Ukrainian people, it breaks my heart to watch this tragedy unfold. In bravely standing up to an invasion, the USA noticed that Ukraine serves as a convenient instrument for bleeding and defanging Russia, analogous to how Afghanistan once bled and defanged the USSR. That achieving this US strategic goal basically destroyed Ukrainian society does not seem to bother US policymakers. As has been said by many others, America is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. From a country that already had some of the lowest fertility in the world, millions of women and children left Ukraine, and I wonder how many will return. When the artillery stops, the traumatized and depleted country will struggle just to rebuild. There will be "Western assistance," sure, but there will be strings attached: any exploitable revenue stream that's left will be absorbed by the "assisting" companies. The Taiwanese should be under no illusion that the US and NATO would prevent their destruction. I would expect just the opposite. The US might prevent China from taking Taiwan, or it might not, but you can count on the US strategists to bleed China, not to just beat China. They're giddy at the prospect of setting up the ultimate PLA meatgrinder - drone, artillery and landmine warfare somewhere in the Taiwanese mountains, and in the deadly ruins of Taiwanese cities and villages. Of course, their first move would be to transplant Taiwan's semiconductor industry and its engineers to the US, and what's left behind would basically be a baited beartrap for China to step into. America would "offer massive assistance" to enable Taiwan to fight to the last Taiwanese. Taiwan also has rock-bottom fertility. How many of its shrinking cohort of young people would be left after the war? Being Czech, I know that my ancestors have shown great bravery in war, but I keep thinking about two key military events within living memory. One of them is the militarily unopposed annexation by Hitler in 1938, and the other is the militarily unopposed invasion of Soviet tanks in 1968. While both of these were tragic for the Czech people, it's easy to imagine how much worse it could have been. We suffered, yes, but not like Ukraine suffered. We were not ground into scorched earth. Old stuff still stands in the Czech Republic. The people were demoralized, but though for centuries were were ruled from various non-Czech capitals, our culture stayed intact. We outlasted them. There is something to be said for militarily unopposed invasions. In the early days of the "Z" operation, before any cities were leveled, there was still a chance for a negotiated peace. For Ukraine it would have been bitter and humiliating to accept the terms that Putin offered, but it's hard to imagine that it would have been worse than this terrible war and whatever settlement comes at the end. What I read was that Ukraine was seriously considering the deal, and it was Boris Johnson who scuttled it, almost certainly with US support. If things get nasty over the Taiwan Strait, expect many parallels: China will ask Taiwan to capitulate, and the West will be like "No brah, you got this! You can beat them! We'll give you all the kit you need, and logistical assistance, and China will unload their vast military arsenal into your little island, but if you stay tough, they will run out bombs and things to bomb, and then victory will be ours and America will be the undisputed king of the Pacific again, huahahahaa! And, er, that will also be good for you somehow, because you will be on the side of the good guys, and you'll be free! And rebuilding the smoking husks of cities is a giant economic stimulus, so get ready for the good times!" This is how the US uses its "friends." If the Taiwanese leadership decides instead to take their chances and make a deal with China, I wouldn't think less of them.
Your reasoning on Europe seems sound. But the parallels to Taiwan are only accurate on the surface level. The main deterrent to direct US intervention in Ukraine is escalation to nuclear war. China is a nuclear power but are nowhere near as ready to use them against the United States in the event of a direct conflict. In terms of number of weapons and publicly discussed policy. Ukraine has little to no value to the US in strategic terms beyond its position as a buffer state. Russia, while certainly an antagonist, is not a rival or peer to the US. This is not the case for Taiwan/China Taiwan’s industry is one of the most valuable in the world, it is essential to the US’s ability to fight any war, never mind run its economy. That industry cannot simply be ‘shipped somewhere else’. There are too many IP, cost, and complexity reasons for that to happen as you suggest (although in the long term, that is an idea being acted upon) Taiwan is too essential to US Foreign policy in Asia to support indirectly. It’s is the lynchpin to its entire system of relationships with the friendly advanced economies that exist there. For better or worse, Europe is just not as relevant anymore on the world stage. Particularly, Eastern Europe. An attack on Taiwan unlike Ukraine, would necessitate immediate direct response from the US (and likely other European powers with a presence in the region)
@@gregtaylor9806 Your reasoning is out of step with reality. Taiwan is only a pawn of the US and it will never come to Taiwan's defense because the US has never won a war against a powerful country like China. It only bullies smaller countries. You will never win fighting in someones backyard. The US and NATO can't even win the US proxy war in Ukraine. I guess you are only hallucinating.
Hadn't heard some of these points anywhere else. VERY GOOD !.
One lesson from the Ukraine war that should be sobering for Taiwan is that having the USA as a friend and ally does not protect your country from utter destruction. As someone with a deep affection for the Ukrainian people, it breaks my heart to watch this tragedy unfold. In bravely standing up to an invasion, the USA noticed that Ukraine serves as a convenient instrument for bleeding and defanging Russia, analogous to how Afghanistan once bled and defanged the USSR. That achieving this US strategic goal basically destroyed Ukrainian society does not seem to bother US policymakers. As has been said by many others, America is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. From a country that already had some of the lowest fertility in the world, millions of women and children left Ukraine, and I wonder how many will return. When the artillery stops, the traumatized and depleted country will struggle just to rebuild. There will be "Western assistance," sure, but there will be strings attached: any exploitable revenue stream that's left will be absorbed by the "assisting" companies.
The Taiwanese should be under no illusion that the US and NATO would prevent their destruction. I would expect just the opposite. The US might prevent China from taking Taiwan, or it might not, but you can count on the US strategists to bleed China, not to just beat China. They're giddy at the prospect of setting up the ultimate PLA meatgrinder - drone, artillery and landmine warfare somewhere in the Taiwanese mountains, and in the deadly ruins of Taiwanese cities and villages. Of course, their first move would be to transplant Taiwan's semiconductor industry and its engineers to the US, and what's left behind would basically be a baited beartrap for China to step into. America would "offer massive assistance" to enable Taiwan to fight to the last Taiwanese. Taiwan also has rock-bottom fertility. How many of its shrinking cohort of young people would be left after the war?
Being Czech, I know that my ancestors have shown great bravery in war, but I keep thinking about two key military events within living memory. One of them is the militarily unopposed annexation by Hitler in 1938, and the other is the militarily unopposed invasion of Soviet tanks in 1968. While both of these were tragic for the Czech people, it's easy to imagine how much worse it could have been. We suffered, yes, but not like Ukraine suffered. We were not ground into scorched earth. Old stuff still stands in the Czech Republic. The people were demoralized, but though for centuries were were ruled from various non-Czech capitals, our culture stayed intact. We outlasted them. There is something to be said for militarily unopposed invasions.
In the early days of the "Z" operation, before any cities were leveled, there was still a chance for a negotiated peace. For Ukraine it would have been bitter and humiliating to accept the terms that Putin offered, but it's hard to imagine that it would have been worse than this terrible war and whatever settlement comes at the end. What I read was that Ukraine was seriously considering the deal, and it was Boris Johnson who scuttled it, almost certainly with US support. If things get nasty over the Taiwan Strait, expect many parallels: China will ask Taiwan to capitulate, and the West will be like "No brah, you got this! You can beat them! We'll give you all the kit you need, and logistical assistance, and China will unload their vast military arsenal into your little island, but if you stay tough, they will run out bombs and things to bomb, and then victory will be ours and America will be the undisputed king of the Pacific again, huahahahaa! And, er, that will also be good for you somehow, because you will be on the side of the good guys, and you'll be free! And rebuilding the smoking husks of cities is a giant economic stimulus, so get ready for the good times!" This is how the US uses its "friends." If the Taiwanese leadership decides instead to take their chances and make a deal with China, I wouldn't think less of them.
Ukraine is fighting US's proxy war until its last soldiers. Ukraine people should put the clown Zelensky in jail for being a traitor.
Yes, they should look at Ur!
great honest view !
Your reasoning on Europe seems sound. But the parallels to Taiwan are only accurate on the surface level.
The main deterrent to direct US intervention in Ukraine is escalation to nuclear war. China is a nuclear power but are nowhere near as ready to use them against the United States in the event of a direct conflict. In terms of number of weapons and publicly discussed policy.
Ukraine has little to no value to the US in strategic terms beyond its position as a buffer state. Russia, while certainly an antagonist, is not a rival or peer to the US.
This is not the case for Taiwan/China Taiwan’s industry is one of the most valuable in the world, it is essential to the US’s ability to fight any war, never mind run its economy. That industry cannot simply be ‘shipped somewhere else’. There are too many IP, cost, and complexity reasons for that to happen as you suggest (although in the long term, that is an idea being acted upon)
Taiwan is too essential to US Foreign policy in Asia to support indirectly. It’s is the lynchpin to its entire system of relationships with the friendly advanced economies that exist there. For better or worse, Europe is just not as relevant anymore on the world stage. Particularly, Eastern Europe. An attack on Taiwan unlike Ukraine, would necessitate immediate direct response from the US (and likely other European powers with a presence in the region)
@@gregtaylor9806 Your reasoning is out of step with reality. Taiwan is only a pawn of the US and it will never come to Taiwan's defense because the US has never won a war against a powerful country like China. It only bullies smaller countries. You will never win fighting in someones backyard. The US and NATO can't even win the US proxy war in Ukraine. I guess you are only hallucinating.
I miss your real voice
You can listen to the Live Players podcast we launched recently for that! :)
czcams.com/video/y0SwVCWPinw/video.htmlsi=UJvoqy039oPgNnod