Brexit: What Have We Learned So Far?
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- čas přidán 25. 04. 2024
- What has Brexit come to mean?
This lecture will explain how the Brexit deal the UK and the EU ended up with came to be. It will then investigate the new relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, put in place by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement of December 2020.
Finally, the lecture will look to the future, to elucidate what Brexit will go on to mean for politics and public policy within the United Kingdom.
A lecture by Anand Menon
The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are available from the Gresham College website:
www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-an...
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0:00 Introduction
0:19 Outline
2:03 A50 - an early stumbling block Brexit is in the courts with Miller before departure has even formally been notified - med to how Brexit will be a legal and constitutional minefield TITLE VI
6:07 Imitation is the highest form.....
9:08 Government divided
12:54 Parliament cannot find a way through May's deal, First Meaningful Vote
19:33 Scotland: independence not surging
22:25 A majority in Northern Ireland support the Protocol but MPs do not
23:19 Though EU access has benefits (fuel supply)
24:06 But NI trust in UK gov has drained
35:23 EU trade has suffered
46:59 2. Public opinion remains divided: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
50:32 And next?
As a Northern Irish man, the ignorance of the general British population around NI has always been truly breath-taking. The Brexit referendum illustrated this very nicely when NI's EU border was never truly considered. One had to assume that we were not valued as part of the UK and consequently many Northern Irish people have woken up to this fact. I hope that our transition toward a unified Ireland is peaceful as I do not wish to see the bloodshed my parents witnessed and still fear everyday.
And you are a Republican... obviously.
@JJ LongeMann Hard-line Unionists voted for Brexit under the guidance of the DUP in cahoots with the Tory's. Now the Tory's have sold them out, the DUP's vote share has collapsed. Moderate UUP Unionism alongside moderate SDLP Nationalism in the North will find a way to bring Republicans and Loyalists together. The example of the late great John Hume is the future.
Why would you expect the general British population *not* to be mostly ignorant about Northern Ireland? Just how much exactly do you know about Yorkshire, the place I'm from?
@@jonobrow the problem is that the Brexit vote had major implications for NI; which there were comments about, but most people voted with little consideration for NI. Like William I hope that the transition to a United Ireland will proceed peacefully.
@@jonobrow We don't claim to rule or own Yorkshire
Brexit is going brilliantly, soon Scotland will be independent and Ireland reunited. 🥂
I consider that a win. And I'm glad that the underprivileged in Yorkshire and the Humber have finally gotten their political voice back.
@@HolyKhaaaaan Problem is with mobs though is that when they lash out they lash out blindly and their energy is easily led and used.
Did you actually listen to the lecture? He concluded that Brexit has made Scotland's independence more complicated therefore surely less likely. Support for independence has declined recently.
@@leegregorypeck Yes I listened to it, it contained many inaccurate conclusions such are the ridiculous optimism regarding farming, British farming is doomed it will not be able to compete with the hyper-productivity of Australian and American imports.
Support for Scottish independence like support for Irish reunification may accelerate at varying rates but the demographic trend is now unmistakable and irreversible.
The SNP is now hated , so next indy ref Nicola Sturgeon and her coronies won't get what they want .
I would just like to take a moment to thank UKIP, the DUP and the Conservatives for single handedly guaranteeing a unified Ireland an independent Scotland and the final destruction of the crumbling Façade of the British Empire. We really couldn’t have done it without you guys.
It might even have made the EU stronger.
@Israel Hands I’m sorry what?
@Israel Hands ok cool but I still have no idea what your point is or what that has to do with the topic
@Israel Hands that is true. I, unlike the Torrys, unionists and UKIP, am never wrong
lol Scotland will never leave the SNP are guarantee that.
who knew that just over a year after this lecture the situation is now 10X worse in almost every level
I did.
Being a member of the EU is far from ideal, but waaay better, than not.
We ‘non-experts’ saw the Northern Ireland problem. It was very hard not to see it.
In fact we were warned all along that the EC would use NI as a wedge.
@@PorchBass and still we walked into their trap. It’s nearly like we don’t know what we’re doing and our leaders are incompetent. Still, we brought down Stormont. That’ll learn ‘em.
Yup. To those wanting to disrupt our politics this was just a sales pitch. All up no down
Great lecture. Nice and balanced and honest
NI should be their own country, then they can blame themselves and stop blame everyone else. So go on, have a referendum.
The government of the Republic of Ireland is paying the cost of Erasmus scheme for North of Ireland students who had lost access to the scheme thanks to Brexit. Seems Dublin cares more about NI citizens than London.
The loss of Erasmus is of huge consequence - yet few people in the UK seem to have caught on to yet.
Not "London", the Tories. And they don't give a flying f about anything or anyone else except themslves.
@@tonyb9735 london is and always will be pro EU
@@tonyb9735 Also did you know the Irish government is picking up the cost of European Health Insurance scheme for NI citizens who had lost access thanks to Brexit. Practical help being provided by the South. Wonder what the DUP and Tory's think of that.
Of course the south cares about the North as half the North has Irish EU passports. Thus they are Irish EU citizens in leaving in the north
The irony is that the UK agreed to all the rules it considered frustrating at the end. Blaming the EU for things the UK agreed to when the rules were put in place is problematic.
Yea, the problem is inside the UK. The Government is only answerable to Westminster over domestic affairs. The Foreign Office us a rule unto itself. - Iraq, EU, Liz Truss, we will they ever learn?
Brexit Got Done! :-D
What the Brexiteers wanted and expected was to leave a club ,stop paying its dues to the said club , but retain all the privileges of a full member.
The Farages and Reece Moggs of this world ,are laughing all the way to the bank . The biggest con since the South Sea Bubble .
True, but not ironic, as now our own Parliament has the ability to change any incorporated EU regulations by a mere simple majority. They are no longer effectively written in stone.
Thi k you need to remember it wasn't the uk that triggered article 16 it was the EUSSR because they didn't like the rules that THEY signed up for so as per usual hypocrisy from bedwetting remoaners!!!!
Who'd have thought that leaving a club would mean no longer having access to all the facilities that the club offered.
The EU is a special club, isn't it?
and usually when you leave a club ... you STOP PAYING membership fees.
@@who9387 Oh, you pay your debts and obligations first.
You left the club, go home or join another club
@@who9387 £350m membership fee is a drop in the ocean compared to losing billions in trade every year.
Having left the EU we now have no excuses for not holding our elected politicians to account as they cannot blame the EU for everything in the same way that they could not blame everything on the Russians or the Americans or the Chinese in the past. I have my doubts anything will change.
they are still blaming the EU.
Sorry no, covid. , trouble with Russia , Johnny foreigners Being awkward , large hold ups at Dover four ferries . Broken down, , I still think there is room for a book to be published. Called 101. Brexit excuses, or dog of a deal ?
That is only a dream. They will keep blaming EU and people will still believe them. It will take time, but the opinion will shift eventually
@@AdrianAJojko You are pretty much correct sir! Our useless deeply unrepresentative and archaic 'Worst Past The Post' needs to go and go *NOW* !
The problem is our system coddles too many MPs in safe seats whereby they just get to be comfortable lobby fodder, even if they are attentive to their constituents needs. They have no inclination to change it.
Proportional representation or the Australian Preferred Candidate system would be way better.
Now the EU can make big decisions that affect the UK without the UK having any say or veto over anything as they had while they were members. So the UK can continue to blame the EU, only now nobody in the EU will listen. Well done UK government 👏👏👏
I do not share his optimism that Brexit gives an opportunity to make the UK less unequal. The very same mechanisms that led to the high inequality in the UK, also compared to other european countries, can now work without being constrained by pesky EU regulations. Workers rights as an example.
That and also recent events with Government spending and taxation point in the opposite direction. The corruption and wastage with PPE contacts and track and trace would more than cover the NI tax hike. Quite literally gifting the rich and connected and disproportionately recovering the cost from the poorest wage earners.
@@damarekonayaro5781 It's a bit like the ridiculous and regressive taxation on our gas and electricity bills whereby about 25% of it goes to big companies who blanket our countryside with 'solar farms' and those obscenely expensive off shore eco-crucifix wind turbines. Neither would be even remotely viable without huge subsidy.
All it does is take money off those on lower incomes and hand it over to various landowners and big corporations. None of those companies will bear the cost of removing their eco monstrosities when they become unproductive or uneconomical. They will simply declare bankruptcy, walk away and let the taxpayers, at great expense, remove them.
Of course once upon a time Liebour would have been all over such a wealth transfer from poor to rich like a rash. But not today. So castrated by the eco loons are they, that they whimper not one word of protest and follow close on the Tory heels like so many emasculated poodles.
@@johnrandall125 Astroturfer.
but he didnt say that, he said it highlighted the inequality between reigons not that it would allow us to address them. its not going to happen anyway, germany spent around a trillion and a half when they absorbed the poorer former east germany back, a similar amount would be needed to fix the issue, Britain hasnt got that cash even if the political will todo so was there.
I believe, a) that Brexit gives an opportunity to make the UK less unequal and I believe even more in b)Brexit gives an opportunity to make the UK more unequal!
Living in Germany, a land that got literally chopped in two and had different economic systems running in both halves for decades (something that very much still affects us to this day), I am surprised how small our economic disperacy looks in comparison to the UK. That is kinda scary tbh
disperacy?
Discrepancy?
Disparity?
@Mike Morris difference. Come on it’s not his/her first language. Chill.
Strange, isn't it? Blame Maggie Thatcher! 😏
In that case Germany should have stopped all migrations from elsewhere for at least 2 decades
So they needed brexit to learn that there’s a lot of inequality in the UK…that’s an expensive lesson.
Billions and billions to educate a country that all leavers are idiots. An effective lesson.
And there will be even more now. Serves us right.
Great post
The so-called "United" kingdom.
The inequality had nothing to do with the EU
Never thought I would spend an hour listening to a political/economic lecture. I was riveted. Well done sir, concise and informative.
Well you should because it will effect you, your children and your grandchildren for the rest of your lives.
@@SirAntoniousBlock Nah! He should’ve learned all that before casting a vote in the referendum. Now this knowledge is useless.
@@jansix4287 Exactly, like all those who Googled "What is the EU?" the day after the referendum.
@@SirAntoniousBlock Am I getting chastised? Just enjoyed the lecture that's all. I didn't expect a debate nor scolding.
BTW I was fully up to speed on the issues before I cast my vote. The northern Irish are pretty politically astute don't you know?.
These M.P,s always HOPE that the public are NOT interested in POLITICS. People will find out their fate when it is too late!!
The Irish were really smart when they insisted that the question of the Irish border needed to be addressed, and agreed, before any talk of a trade deal was discussed. That’s why the Irish made it front and center in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations. The British government thought the EU would steamroller the Irish in favor of a trade deal with the UK. That, of course, never materialized. The EU backed the Irish and we now have a customs border at Northern Irish Sea ports instead of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the ROI.
No matter which way the negotiations goes had you ever thought in a million years that you can ever have a custom border between Northern and Southern Ireland.? This seem more of a no go area , you have people commute from Northern Ireland to South Ireland just like someone going from Manchester to Leeds. This issue is something that can't be altered because the north and south Ireland still see and live like one country despite the North Ireland being administered by England. I think this is just the best that can be achieved
@@austineogbata284 : The DUP don't care about cross boarder issues and the disruption it would cause to the ordinary public, and business. I think people's anger would be firmly directed at them and they'd be wiped out in the next election.
They tried to force an Irexit, remember Patel suggesting if the Irish did not agree, Britain would starve them out? Of course Ireland was discussed first after that. And several new ferries and ports were built in double quick time to keep Ireland connected to the EU. The EU will always defend and secure its member countries.
@@MrsGardiner : Nor did she know that Ireland is one of the very few countries that can feed itself without having to import food.
I think it was absolutely just and proper that the EU should have attended to the situation in Ireland first as a prerequisite to any deal with the UK. Ireland is still a member of that club and the rest of the EU would not have wanted to give reasons to foment an "Irexit". The British government had a quite a lot of misconceptions about the importance of trading with Britain, David Davis had delusional ideas about how the Germans would fold and give way to Britain. He and his ilk totally misread the situation. I am not suggesting that the loss of Britain to the EU was negligible, I think it has been a great loss on so many levels, but one that is ultimately been accepted by the EU, and it has other problems on its doorstep now.
I'm confused from the get-go. The two year period was meant as a mandatory minimum, and allowed for as many deferrals as needed... in the end it was Uk who chose not to extend it further...
You're not the only one. The UK government is blaming the EU for its problems, they're claiming its the EU's bureaucracy thats to blame for their hasty decision to leave the EU. Now that its citizens are seeing the shortcomings of brexit, which they voted for. Everything from the lorry pile-up at the Dover port, to the fact that Brits can no longer live in Spain as they used to do. This is what they signed up for. Brexit should've been a 5-10 years process, if not longer so that the extrication would be smoother. But the tories didn't care and just signed the papers thinking everything would be fine.
In hindsight two years was more than enough.
@@charleswhite758 oh do tell.... I'm sure you can provide a cohesive response that stands up to analysis. Don't think that any of us will be holding our breath though.
@@charleswhite758 If two years was enough, then explain why the UK wanted to amend the deal less than a year after they agreed to it? If two years was more than enough time to sort it out. Why are some many stakeholders complaining about the deal? And also regretting their decision to leave the EU.
@@Tachikoma-sj6kz I think that Charles means that the UK wasted every extension so badly that we might as well not have been given any.
Freedom of movement is weird only for the narrow minded. Is the freedom of movement between London and Liverpool weird? What about the freedom of movement between New York and Texas? Same here. As a proud European, the free movement between Paris and Berlin is exactly the same as moving between London and Liverpool...
That!
Therein lies the problem people have with it. People were scared of a United States of Europe. Not enough work has been done in the last 40 odd years to talk loudly about the benefits of membership in the EU, and of those benefits of further integration.
@Israel Hands Now why on earth would I want to do that? Enter rainy freezing Liverpool, when I have the entire beautiful continent to explore, to study/work in, to enjoy.... ?
England has become a joke (notice the world England - the UK break up is just a question of time).
@Israel Hands Well, it wouldn't be the first time in history when students surpassed their teacher who stagnated (or regressed), "resting on his laurels". There are much better states in Europe in terms of freedom and equality.
Anyway, its not like the smartest and brightest of the brits voted leave. On the contrary. The brightest and the young (=the future) voted remain... it's just that you had an armature (Cameron) running the show, and a pathological liar (BoJo) running the encore + a not-so-smart mass... and this is how the cookie crumbles.
How pathetic, in a 100 odd years being reduced from an empire to an insignificant small state which is totally depended on much bigger (and way more important) entities.
@Israel Hands it created the modern age...what exactly are you talking about ?!
I know Greece is responsible for democracy, Italy for Rennasaince, France for "liberte , fraternite , egalite". USA for freedom of religion and class...China for gunpowder and toilet paper , Germany for written press and a LOT of modern phisic, Russia for space exploration...
..all I know about the Uk is they BULLIED and ROBBED everybody they could, while claiming they are, somehow , better .
The bar graph 📊 showing inequality in various countries is very telling.
We all knew there was inequality in U K.
They are not only head and shoulders above everyone, in inequality in U K, they are hips,heads, and shoulders above other countries.
Indeed, even knees. you forgot the knees
Fully agree that it is unfair to be asked to tidy up your left overs before leaving. Funny part: All those rules were defined and implemented while Britain was part of the EU and Britain had the right of veto. I can understand that some people like to forget that. In those cases Alzheimer is very helpful.
Ironically, the rule not to allow mollusks from grade b waters into the EU was introduced by the UK. If only they had known about Brexit and pumping raw sewage into UK waters back then.
@@PEdulis of course pumping sewage into rivers is a Europe wide problem.
@@hitime2405 Is it? What is your evidence for that? A reliable source or your gut feelings?
@@PEdulis just have a look online, it’s there.
@@hitime2405 On the telegraph's page? You must come up with something better than that.
The lecture is absolutely great. When answering the questions, I think it false to raise hope that the UK government will use its freedom to make the country more productive and/or more equal. Quite the opposite is happening, and it is likely that will continue.
It’s not likely to continue without a DOUBT it will continue. The turkeys voted for a warm bed for Xmas. They just didn’t realise the bed would be in the oven.
@@ffi1001 Oh diddums. You lost the vote. :-D
It is simply a lie as the UK government could do all this. The Germans seem to do fine with productivity and they are s founding member. So when will peopl
The British government will make a mess in or out of the eu
TheEvertw, You miss the point. You now have the power to vote for the government and the laws you want. The Tories won't be in power for ever, unless we the people wish it. "The UK government" is not a fixed entity. Labour will be free to do whatever they wish if they win next time.
There's nothing about 'Levelling Up' that couldn't have been done in the EU. Indeed, leaving has just stopped the limited amount of investment in deprived areas in the UK that the EU was able to do. The EU budget is very small compared to the UK government budget. Something like 150,000 million vs 800,000 million.
'Levelling up' is just the latest euphemism for throwing yet more money at the billionaires.
It was our own money...not the EU's.
@@lennylaa1686 yeh but wasn't the EUSSR marvellous for giving us back some of our money. Not as much as they took and doled out to poorer EU countries though........unelected socialism with no sign of holding back.
@@barfieldmcduff8774 The EU was a stinking rip off ...a rotten and corrupt dictatorship.
@@lennylaa1686 absolutely. And the hand wringing Remoaners wanted more of it.
"The EU was integrated in every part of our lives" (or someting to that effect).
Of course, but *that was the whole frikkin' point!*
The Brits, including many so-called Europhiles, tend to forget that the EU is more than just a trading block. It has always been, first and foremost _a peace project._ It managed this not by treaties and military alliances, but by _integrating the economies_ together. Thus making sure that trying to harm your neighbour will come and bite you in the posterior.
That integration also brough about an unprecended economic prosperity whilst maintaining high quality standards AND high standards of life, including environmental and workers' rights protection, but that was a _side effect,_ not the goal.
This, I believe, is the main reason why the British (more specifically, the English) never quite understood it. For us, everything is a zero sum game. For me to win, somebody must lose. For me to climb up, I must push someone down. The idea that _everybody can win_ and that _I can climb higher if I help you up, too_ is a totally alien concept.
Well said
You're perfectly correct.
@Al 77 Eh? Literally none of that makes any sense.
@Al 77 Let me fix that for you: "The EU leadership, the commission, is selected by the leaders of national governments. People like David Cameron. You know the people the likes of you elect."
If you live in a representative democracy it is common place that your elected representatives then in turn select poeple for posts in your country and international organizations. How would that delegitimize the EU?
What you say is much more damning of your own system, as "the likes of Cameron, May and Johnson" are elected in your own cherished democracy not by the EU.
Well said!👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
This is superb. The future (re)united Ireland and independent Scotland still-to-come.
@Israel Hands Scotland rejected to leave UK at a time when Brexit was not on the list (officially). So that's not the end of this story yet.
However, if Scotland would become independet a hard border would be needed .... another hard border issue.
@Israel Hands Are you so scared about a new vote ...
People forget that many Scots voted to remain in indyref in order to stay in the EU 🤷♀️
Do not worry, within the next few years the immigration policies of the various governments will change matters considerably.
I am actually terrified by the prospect of trying to reunify Ireland. Far better to leave it the way it is now, where they are reunified in every way but officially. This is because many people think the Troubles were just the Catholic Provisional Irish Republican Army fighting a terror campaign against the British government. It wasn't. It was the Catholic PIRA fighting the Protestant Ulster Militias and the British military trying to somewhat keep the peace and often collaborating with the Ulster Militias. The Protestants in Northern Ireland aren't just going to stand by and let reunification happen, guaranteed they will kick the Troubles back off.
American here. Very clear and concise presentation. Brilliant.
When I see you talking about Britain and not showing Scotland it reminds me why I.m voting to leave the UK.
100%
Who on Earth could have possibly guessed that Brexit would be so utterly complicated?
ask Trump about health care!
Most Irish knew it would be a disaster.
U K wanted us to join them.
Not a hope of that.
I think I heard one or two or even more people pointing out exactly which effects it would have but a loud minority had enough of experts and decided it was enough to call it "project fear" and to close their eyes and ears firmly to make all of that disappear.
Everyone who voted to Remain and told the Brexit fans , it would be too hard to leave. People forget 48% voted against Brexit.
It was pointed out in detail how complicated it would be and how much the UK would lose. So one gad to willfully ignore them and now pretend one never heard about it.
I voted Remain, and this LECTURE was brilliant , I understand why so many Brexiters voted for brexit now, but it does still bug me.
I understood why many voted Brexit, that wasn't an issue, it sounds great to conclude trade deals for one country only, it is an amazing prospect. Well... Until you realise that you do speak only for 65mil of people, not over 300mil. and your bargaining power has reduced greatly. Not to mention that serving 300mil people and create a business in a country that has the most "loose" worker rights is the best prospect, less tax in comparison to other countries and so on. Now, UK is (and short term of 5-10 years) will be plagues by workforce shortage, greatly reduced market availability, will find it more difficult to find reliable partners(check world maps and locate capitalist democracies on it).
I even understand why UK wanted to have more room to manoeuvre in relation to some laws. Some EU laws were (and are) really silly. Yet in great part, they do benefit the whole population. UK is now free to do whatever it wants, including reducing the standards of it's citizens.
I wouldn't be so positive about Brexit, not as this fella is. Looking at the global "opportunities", there isn't that many of them, apart few rich countries. That is why xenophobia was such a a bad idea in the first place. And not only that.
Oh, I understood too, but I felt that their reasons were for the most part pretty repellend.
I get that with inequality being so high, many people didn't feel like preserving the status quo. What they failed to account for was that the EU was, in fact, not really the problem and that actually, yes, things could get worse.
@@userofthetube2701 Sums it up pretty well. But the reasons why they were so eager to blame the EU are pretty disgusting.
It took you five and a half years.
Did I just hear him say that nobody saw the NI problem coming? Well I did! It was stark staring obvious that the NI situation would be like trying to square the circle, and could lead to the most awful outcomes. I am afraid this is still true
3 years ago this old Dane met a young lad from Belfast. I asked him several questions about the NI problem, and he answered most of them.
We ended up agreeing, that this issue actually could lead to an United Ireland.
Now I know that we're at least three people, who foresaw this 😉 Shame none of us are English politicians.
Peace and love 😊
Everyone in Ireland, north and south said, years ago, that it was going to be a mess. We all knew. And those concerns were repeated multiple times. They just didn't listen. They never have listened to Ireland.
@@citizenwolf8720 In fairness, the Tories chose not to listen to anybody else. Brexit ended up being an internal Tory party fight. They had less than no concern for anyone or anything else. And still don't. If they had any concern about the welfare of the nation, they'd have handed those 54 letters weeks ago.
Have grown up along the border the “Northern Ireland” problem was my major concern
Barnier not only saw it coming, but was fully across it from day one. He had been to NI several times in preparation of his task and spoke to people of all political parties. With a tiny bit of thought the British negotiators should also have been across the problem.
We on the Continent Always had the nothern Ireland Agreement AS a big Point in the Diskussion. No Border between north Ireland and Ireland was the Most Important Point.
And that was and still is very much appreciated.
It is also something that the U K never even thought about until forced to.
The GFA should easily be able to cope with a UK democratic Brexit vote.
Instead it responded by issuing terror threats.
But it is America that enforced it and still does.
If it were not for the US, britain would have re-invaded Ulster by now.
@@CollieJenn I think part of the ignorance shown over this matter by the current mobsters in Whitehall is a smokescreen. They want to destroy the GFA because they didn't make it.. the "other lot" did.
People are dreaming if they think Brexit triggered leveling up and that there’ll be actual improvements. The EU distributed more money to develop parts of the country than the current government is dishing out. This is a fact. ‘Leveling up” is a political message and nothing else. Optimism is not a plan or a strategy. He didn’t touch on the subject, but automation will make many jobs redundant in the near future. Developing high skilled workers will take a decade or more. In the mean time everything needed will be bought cheaply from China. The UK infrastructure needs an urgent overhaul. Where will the money come from? A realistic plan is required to change things around. The country won’t just fall into prosperity. Note: showing the financial equality comparison of which the UK is by far the worst would suggest that it’s not the EU policies but something inherent to the UK itself. Therefore, why would he think financial equality will improve? It’s illogical.
Tories have never liked regional planning concepts, quite happy to see the SE overheat.
From what I saw EU cash was often wasted on useless and unnecessary services that employed the growing middle-class professionals who tended to flock to remain. Go to the S Wales valleys and see what record EU investment has achieved - a string of useless colleges offering Mickey Mouse diplomas. Wales now has some 8 universities too. One of the benefits of Brexit is that any sane govt will have to shut these factories of ignorance or else keep tapping the tax payer to keep the parasites they churn out in their odious sinecures. The choice is now there to be discussed. Previously, the elite bargained on us never questioning the lazy assumption that universities = knowledge and that knowledge is a virtue.
the lecturer, Fritz old fellow, is a Tory spin doctor. His talk is no more informative than a bucketful of dog doodoo.
The EU doesnt hsve any money, its members money.. So they gave us a % of our money back? That's sweet of them.
@@sirnigeloffarage9255 now that was nonsensical. Maybe as much as a national hero - sarcasm - watching for small little boats while not being able to do a single thing about it. Brussels distributed funds from its members to areas that needed growth. Those areas decide how they want to use it. So if there is waste, it's waste caused by local decisions. This suggests getting rid of the EU will help nothing at all, except having much less money available in those areas. The UK was a net contributor with many perks other countries did not have. As the GDP suffer because of lost trade, we'll see how much will be invested in leveling up. But I'm not holding my breath.
Absolutely stunning lecture on Brexit - Thanks, Dr Menon
Agreed - I'm a remainer but I think even a leaver could enjoy this as well. Fascinating.
we've learnt that pensioners are more than willing to vote for a party which provides a string of abject failures empty headed meaningless slogans and forced resignation, there must be something in the water in Kent
This lecture wasn't a big deal in my view. The main takeaway is the mildly amusing point about Mr. Brown's Boys being favoured by Leavers. The rest was just stating the obvious and giving a personally biased slant.
This man seem to have more knowledge than most of the present politicians leading us . This goes far to expose the people left with the task of leading a country. People without clue
@@susanbrand3968 this lecture was illustrated with facts, point and the reality on ground . If you think this is a biased point of view you could come up with something better .
Professor Dorling lecture around who voted for brexit is a companion piece for this. The key thing professor Dorling points out that the core voter for leave was English, retired and middle class.
We have learned that democracy should be conditional on the basis of passing a critical thinking test!
And also a critical majority amongst the whole electorate not just those turning up to vote on the day.
Let's hope those you disagree with aren't in charge of creating those tests
Votes only for those intellectual types, what arrogance, you buffoon.
@@stevezodiac491 intellectual snobs hate the working class plebs
@@stevezodiac491 Votes for those who know what they're voting for. That's not intellectualism, thats basic thinking.
"Brexit will haunt us for years to come"
So true, and so glaringly obvious back in 2019. Anyone who believed the Get Brexit Done slogan was a fool.
well it could take as long as JRM said it would take for benefits, 5 decades ....
Cope
Yes, you will eventually have a nice car, but it's no reason to crash into a tree.
@@jyvben1520 As the OBR stated, Brexit costs the UK 4% of its GDP permanently. Even an ambitious deal with the US (that would bring great damage with it like privatising the NHS, ...) would only boost it by 0.3%. Where do you find another 12 economies the size of the US to even get to a boost of 3.9% which still would be a net loss? So gaining economically through Brexit is mathematically impossible.
Only a fool believes he is not a fool. Like you.
I was always on the side of " you have to be in it to influence it " so a remainer. Don't see anything yet to convince me I was wrong . I'd agree that a system to Govern 27 countries by definition will have it's inequalities in each persons eyes but the overall benefits outweigh the negatives.
The converse of ”EU makes our laws” is ”we make the laws of other EU countries”. For reasons brexiteers chose to ignore this. As one of the big three the UK had a strong hand on the EU steering wheel, now it is forfeit.
@@upsidefoobarbaz Indeed, and too little was made by the Remain campaign of the facts that EU laws (regulations and directives) have really only impacted on around 13% of UK legislation.
@@upsidefoobarbaz But why should the British government have any say over the laws of, say, Poland or France or Greece? Surely their governments are competent enough to make their own policies targeted at the needs of their own people.
@@jaredt8526 We have to have a level playing field in s single market with common standards. So I buy buy stuff from 27 different countries to build something and it fits as all have the same norms.
Agree
We here in Ireland saw those problems coming. As did people in N. Ireland. The UK government just didn't listen or care.
I know longer leave in UK saying that I lived in UK for over twenty years my reasons for living UK are not associated to brexit.. Personally i stil think that brexit was a massive mistake and the people of UK will realize this one day... I can't understand why anyone would won't to give up access to twenty seven country's were they could work live get acess to free helfcare and many other benefits.. Saying I loved listening to this many if anything I found it educational and thankful for the video... Personally this man would make an excellent prime minister.. Wish everyone well
As an outsider (Dutch) and educated as political scientist I find this very, very interesting.
@Israel Hands That was done in 1941, I believe.
@Israel Hands are you quite well?
All Brexit has done is given focus to polarised opinions even more. The UK was divided before but even more now.
The 'impartial' BBC has lead the way on this.
Divided and fragmented
My memories of the UK are that there was always a form of 'racism' between North and South -remember the old joke that North of Watford they wore blue paint and ate their young'? Yes it was a joke, but hiding a larger view that the North was basically backward and ill-educated. Whenever I see maps showing the breakdowns between Leaver and Remainer votes there still seems a peponderance of Leavers in the North? Yes that is broad brush I realise, but I wonder just how far the original feelings between North and South have really changed?
I left the UK 50 years ago as someone from the South, but my brother married and moved North and as far as I could determine in conversations, emails and Skype he had adopted the North v South mantra as well.
England seems ideal for a 'Federation of States' NE, NW, Midlands, SE, and SW with London being the Capital city overall. MOst FEderations ie Germany, Australia etc have this sort of arrangement that seems to work. Even France has its' Regional Assemblies that are Federated States in all but name.
Smart and serious analysis of Brexit. Very coherent and presented with a sense of humour. Questions answered in a thoughtful, reasoned manner. Thank you.
goodness knows where he got his education ; he annoyingley keeps dropping his haiches
It is biased though.
@@heliotropezzz333 as is anything so that critique is moot at this level
@@heliotropezzz333 Yes it is biased. He comes across as a Leaver.
@@bothi00 As long as people know what his bias is.
there shouldn't have been a public vote on the matter. It's absurd.
This is one of the best political economy lectures I have ever seen. Very coherent and persuasive. Very rich data with a strong narrative. I will watch again. Thank you so much!
Yes , I too subscribed after watching for first time.
i have seen a few videos of Prof Menon before - always informative and worth listening to his wealth of knowledge and ease of delivering it.
From EU horizon I'd thought that he was embarrassing ignorant. What on earth do they learn in Oxford?
@@ulfosterberg9116 how so?
@@williampatrickfagan7590 You will be pleased you did. The Gresham College lectures are all top quality.
He has a breathtaking lack of knowledge of Northern Ireland let alone Ireland as a whole.
Brexit supporters feel they have an absolute right to tear up legally binding international agreements as and when it suits.
What he ignores, not by accident, is that 100% of the citizens of Northern Ireland have an international legal right to be both British and Irish. The latter also means being a European citizen. With all the rights that entails.
Brexit was decided by predominately English voters, which is their right. They had zero interest in how that would effect British people within the EU or within Northern Ireland.
Arrogant comes in many forms but usually has an English accent
Agreed. Huge blind spot there Mr Menon. Socialisation in England does that to your head.
The way both Irish and Scotts were treated on this is a big slap by England on the rest of the Union.
They also have a right to be part of the UK in its entirety, but that part of the GFA has been set aside.
This whole thing is like the final closure after the death of the Empire. The last reminder that the UK is not what it used to be and that the whole British Empire thing is long gone and just dead.
Hum ... you talk as if the empire is over. Yet ... out the far east afew days ago three nations India the US and Australia were joined by Japan in a "defensive" organisation which will hopefully keep peace in the area.
Japan ? Looks like the empire is expanding. (In a new form)
Wait for Scotland to declare its independence and Northern Ireland rejoins Ireland. Great Britain is getting its comeuppance for colonizing and looting all those countries over the years.
As the UK was never in Schengen, all points of entry were always controlled . The Professor seems to have missed this fact !
Also the CTA(common travel area) existed before entering the EEC ( European Economic Community)
The professor is surprisingly inaccurate in a lot of what he is saying.
Not being in Schengen meant that identity had to proven. Not being in the EU means identity has to be proven AND length of visit is limited.
@@gepwxaqdfsidsesg1548 Not being in the EU means now being a rule taker instead of a rule maker.
@@iedco4 which rules are you referring to (as in now being a rule taker)?
He began talking as if the UK was never part of the EU; they were a strong player and the rules to exiting are by UK design as was its scope of activities
Speech was heavily biased, no doubt... I won´t call it a lecture, therefore.
Agree and this is evading UK government's responsibilities for smoothing out the dire consequences awaiting all Britons. 27 member states acting as a sole intervenant to protect their citizens 'right. Who would have thought ?
It did not last two years. The EU always offered more time to the UK in order to reach an agreement .
There is nothing about EU membership that stops a country levelling up. Witness the last 30+ years in Germany.
Having worked in Germany they have a can do will do attitude.
They are also willing to pay for their services.
We just want everything on the cheap
You do realise that the EAST German economy is still to this day, less vibrant and flourishing than the West German economy. Berlin inevitably being the exception. Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg, Hannover. All far wealthier. There's no real levelling up in Germany. Anymore than the UK will suddenly make Newcastle a financial powerhouse
Thanks for one of the most measured and intelligent presentations on the nature and the challenges of brexit that we’ve left to deal with. The division and inequalities need to be addressed and acted upon, not just by our politicians but by ourselves. That is our and our politicians challenge for the next 10 or 20 years.
Makes clear that the huge inequality in the UK drove people to vote for Brexit. Also makes clear that the huge inequality in the UK is UK made problem and not a EU made problem. As a member of the EU and under domestic law most EU countries have been able to establish a much more egalitarian and inclusive society. And in the same way the EU did not create the UK problems, leaving the EU won't fix them. And levelling up would be much easier without the negative economic impact of Brexit. Taking this all together it seems that the UK citizens are paying a very high price to come to the understanding that their problems were created in Westminster and not in Brussel. And as a UK citizen I would really panic now I've come to the understanding that the solutions needs to come from the same conservative government that created the problems in the first place. Since they can no longer hide behind Brussel, it is time to hold them to account or to ditch them
If you look at the chart with inequality, you see thay a poor person in all four countryes had the same amount og money. Only the rich had more in Britain.
I'm sure the "gilets jaunes" that took on the French establishment for months did so because of how happy they were with equality in the country.
Much of the problem of regional inequality, I would argue, goes back to crackpot ideas from Attlee and the inability of Tories to stop the pumping in of fortunes into dead duck industries over 40+ years. This destroyed the old industrial areas of Britain. Why would investors go to S Yorks or S Wales when the best workers were paid well for sitting on their backsides in industries that could be replicated in many other places?
yes EU has nothing to do with this economic, cultural and ecological catastrophe. However, it was also never able to do anything about it or offer any vision - that's more a job for UK Govt. This is why independence is politically essential. Also, no one said the EU is responsible for Hartlepool being tardy.
Attlee's successor, arch centraliser Thatcher, finished the job started by Labour. Both were able to operate with little control over their centralising actions, thanks to our lack of a written constitution. Sometimes central power is necessary to push through much needed change. We can hope for the best.
@@0w784g I'm sure the sans culottes something something non sequitur
I think the gilets would beg to differ. And when you refer to 'inclusive', are you perhaps ignoring the many civil dosobedience riots with police and immigrants over many previous years in Germany? Guess these just get glossed over within the beautiful egalitarian and inclusive EU eh?
He talked about how Brexit has made us more aware about inequality across the country but never discussed whether Brexit would help or hinder us to address this which seems a very major omission. He also talked about the benefits to agriculture without even a mention of the damage that Brexit is doing to that sector which also seemed strange. These kind of oversights make me think his analysis and conclusions may not be very comprehensive or reliable.
The inconvenient truth is: the UK after brexit will probably create more inequality.
All the way through I was trying to figure him out, it was these two points that finally set off the charlatan alarms.
I have to agree. I stopped midway as I was struck by what seemed a tendency towards a "pro-Brexit" bias in the way he was representing some facts and omitting others. He was not being as neutral as he was trying to seem. So I wanted to see what other people thought, and if anybody else had picked up on that. A shame really, as he seemed an intelligent and insightful guy, and I think I really would have enjoyed a more neutral take on the issue. But perhaps that is too much to ask of anyone in the UK ATM, not to have some personal involvement and POV on the issue that will inevitably lead to a bias.
Congratulations to Dr Menon for delving back into those nightmarish times and trying to decipher the chaotic bird's nest. This is the job of the historian in action and it's messy. Seems a lifetime away now all those absurd "meaningful votes" and the farcical behaviour in the Commons - and Lords. No money could persuade me to do that. I enjoyed the lecture, it was very thought provoking, thanks to Gresham College as always.
t was a very interesting lecture, but I was struck by th presumed fact implying that xenophobia was not an issue, or doesn't form part of the English psyche any more. I think a great many others living in Europe would find that hard to believe.
“…delving back into those nightmarish times…”
Did they ever stop?
Dover, NI, leaving the Convention on Human Rights, divorce bills, staff shortages, borders in the Irish sea, endless regicides in the Tory party, blame France, blame the EU…
this is the best 1hr analysis of Brexit on the Internet at the moment, thank you very much for publishing it!!
All EU stuff was agreed by the UK. We co wrote our own leaving contract and had access to refer to it for years before we decided a quarter of us wanted to leave.
@Israel Hands big word for a breckshitter
@Israel Hands 17.4m is a quarter of the uk population…
@Zfen89not69 😂
@Israel Hands Fritz? How old are you?
@@sisuguillam5109 he is either 13 or he is paid troll. (Just read his other comments under this vid, no sane person would reply to every single comment) In both cases there’s no reason to talk with him
But what if, after Brexit is settled, UK economy is smaller than it would have been without it and as unequal as ever, or even worse? The dynamics that led to the current situation were a product of UK's own processes, and I see no reason why they would change over the long term.
It is our job to make sure that this doesn't happen. We need to make the UK a fairer society. I understand why you think nothing will change over the long term, but not trying to change is one way of guaranteeing that nothing will change. We have to try.
@@tlangdon12 boris: what?
@@tlangdon12 if the english keep voting for the tories nothing will change ........the divisions in the economy will only keep on growing .........
@@georgedoorley5628 Who do you suggest as the alternative? Labour with their track record? The Lib Dems who will take us straight back into the EU?
@@johnbower7452 go to the street and demand a proportional voting system.
Regarding scottish independence being “less straightforward” due to brexit, that’ may be the case, but brexit is certainly less straightforward for Scotland! Yes border arrangements with England will be needed, but it’s brexit that has already imposed a hard border between scotland and the EU. You ignore the other side of the coin. Back in the EU, the huge advantages for Scotland, ie returning to the world’s largest single market, will outweigh the need for a border with England. It is not beyond the wit of man to work out border arrangements between Scotland and England. Ironically, the FTA resulted in a customs border between NI and GB, but that’s ok and “oven ready”, whereas Scotland couldn’t possibly do it? Scotland can even poach business from England as operating in Scotland will have great advantages. So ironically, worrying about the border with England sounds a bit like unionist “project fear”. Scotland will be far better off independent, and her brothers and sisters in the EU will welcome her back with open arms. Is the unionist offer really attractive? ie stay joined at the hip forever with a nationalist england and its crazy brexit pseudo british empire revival project?
Exactly. Just listen to the audience laughing when they think about a hard border on the M6 because they think that idea is ridiculous. That's EXACTLY why we want open borders within the EU. Just as you want to drive without restrictions from Scotland to England, we want to do the same going from Belgium to Germany, France to Spain, Poland to Czech Republic,... All of these old borders were a big drag on our economy. Scotland leaving the UK sounds ridiculous, but the UK leaving the EU is just as ridiculous. It's just that the English are not capable of understanding this.
The Scottish economy will tank for many years without the British pound. It will have to adopt the euro if it chooses to join the EU and there will be a long period of mass inflation as prices adjust and debt is issued leading to high unemployment. It would take years before the Scottish economy recovered, even if it managed to join the EU the day it left the UK. People always forget the UK always had an advantage and easier time leaving the EU because the Brits had the foresight to never join the single currency. And for the record, Wales also voted to leave the European Union so to say it is just the English being 'nationalist' is plain wrong.
@@janickpauwels3792 Half the English get it, the other half do not, and we are stuck with leaders who cannot lead.
@@jaredt8526 EU funds struggling economies and EU contributions are calculated from national state GDP value. The Czech Republic's GDP is in the EU for 17 years and it's GDP overtook the Southern EU economies. Euro is not a threat either. Scotland will be fine if it decides to go independent.
You do realise that for Scotland trade with UK is far more than with EU? Your remarks suggest not. Scotland still conducts the majority of its trade within the UK: in 2017, Scotland's exports totalled £81.4 billion, of which £48.9 billion (60%) was with constituent nations of the UK, £14.9 billion with the rest of the European Union (EU), and £17.6 billion with other parts of the world.
Nobody who lives in Ireland on either side of the border was surprised about the protocol being so complex.
If anyone had read a newspaper in the U.K. for the last 50 years they would have known what the unionist parties were envisioning when they said “brexit” and that they’d be completely intransigent when it comes to the protocol.
Very clear and informative ... Thanks! :-)
14:50 Combined Remainers and single market/customs union: 48 percent; Combined leave with no deal and leave with Mrs May's deal: 32 percent. Leaving out the don't knows, 61 percent of those who were prepared to say what they wanted, wanted EU membership or at least to stay in the single market/customs union; and 41 percent wanted the hard Brexit (no to EU, no to customs union/single market).
The hard Brexiteers have taken the country, with no proper majority, down their extreme route.
Out of the EU but stay in the single market would have been the just compromise between the four options - and it would have solved the Northern Ireland problem from day one.
I agree this was the best option in terms of economics, trades, tensions and globally what people wanted. But, it would have been a colossal political failure.
Imagine being being in a group with one of the top three voices in the group. You have a major impact in the decision process and can make sure that everything being decided somewhat benefit you. And trading that position of power with a position where you have to follow the rules but have no say on those rules.
It would be politically untenable by the brexiters, hence one of the least preferred option.
This was the best option for UK. EU countries sighed of relief when they didn't accept it. EU negotiators promised too much. It was like the Swiss deal. It was the first and EU gave the Swiss to much. It worked because the Swiss are the Swiss but it could never have worked with UK.
@@fankrys The tragedy of the situation is written in your own words. The 'best option in terms of economics, trades, tensions and globally what people wanted' would be 'a colossal political failure'. That implies that the purpose of politics is to further an agenda whose real objective remains obscure. And Labour continue to sit on the fence.
Remember the words of the Chief EU Negotiator, Michel Barnier: "Out is out". You cannot leave with cherry picking. It would give some temptations to the Poles and the Hungarians, among others.
@@ComoexportarconCarlosEnrile Michel Barnier
As someone who wanted a second referendum and now wants to rejoin as quickly as is feasible, I never met anyone in the 'Remain camp' who denigrated those who wanted a Norway style EEA deal - we just said it'd be absolutely pointless paying to money into the EU, for all the same benefits but following all the rules without any influence over them. Thinking it could be otherwise was/is naive but it's not like the cultists who wanted to take us out with no deal and thought we'd get by if we just believed more.
And anyway, the Norway style deal was not on the table from basically immediately after the referendum because it wasn't 'pure' enough. Had you offered me/vast majority of Remainers Norway-style or May's deal in 2016/2017 most of us would have accepted because it would have secured our European rights (and the right of Europeans to stay here), safeguarded consumer protections and standards, and protected our economy as I admitted to my MP Heidi Allen in about 2018. But *again*, this was *never* offered.
Ah, I miss watching Brexit happen from across the Pond. That was the only thing keeping me going under Trump. "Which country made the worse choice in 2016?". A timeless question. I went back and forth on that answer every few days. I eventually settled on one answer, but I no longer remember what it was.
Its the UK, and it really isn't close.
From a pure policy perspective Trump made a number of decisions that really weren't bad at all. and while I'm no supporter(or even a yank) he at least had his moments of leadership, even if he was rhetorically somewhat of a maverick lol.
Old Man Biden appears to be a far bigger mistake, but Trump won't haunt your country for decades, perhaps for the rest of the time there even IS a "United Kingdom", and electing him won't have cost your country several pandemics worth of GDP, lost value, and raw cash.
What a great speaker. Had me riveted the whole way through. Also laid down some uncorrectable truths that we all need to hear, whether Leaver our Remainer. On a side note, I'd love to know how many of you watching this right now are Leavers vs how many are Remainera. I have a hunch I already know who the majority will be... 🤔
What is an "uncorrectable truth"?
@@Iazzaboyce My brain hurts, lol
Yes, I would say we're remainders. I think the north south divide has a lot to answer for. I think some in the north wanted to stick it to the south/London middle classes.
@@csharpe5787 Northerner here.. My daughter nearly fell for the con.. She was going to vote leave to kick Cameron.. until I "corrected" her on his sly double bluff...
Never join a club that you cannot leave
This was brilliant - not just interesting but entertaining.
And Educational.
Whenever I`m fed up with my own government, I watch a Brexit Video. It helps...
Very well put together. People from many countries should get a chance to watch this as there are lessons to be found for everyone here...
The 'Leave-Levelling Up' Theory discounts the EU grants to the poorer, Leave areas of UK...eg Sundeland lost £400m due to Brexit, as did Sth Wales.
EU grants? it was our money the EU has no money, it has no tax raising powers.
@@demoscratosbrexitnow2545 Poor areas of the UK were (mostly) receiving more funds as part of the EU than they will post-brexit.
The source of those funds and what you choose to call them is irrelevant.
@@demoscratosbrexitnow2545 It was indeed rebates from money we'd paid in, yes. But it wasEU- legislated; not as a tax but payments into The EU coffers, none-the-less. In any case, the £350m on th bus was incorrect, as Leave areas were given 'EU money' every 4 years, far and above that which they now will receive post-Brexit. eg South Wales receeived E$400m every 4 years. Now they're haggling with Westminster over a few £m. Our shrinking GDP now yields far less than EU membership and we are £800m/week worse off than before Brexit, according to official OBR figures.
@@demoscratosbrexitnow2545 now that the eu arent funding these areas do you actually think the tories will replace this eu funding lol.
Sunderland lost way more than that if you actually include the tax payer revenues that gets sent to the EU. Brussels is a great big sink hole of Bureaucracy that doesn't actually produce anything at all.
That last statement, that people don't worry about immigration because the government controls immigration now feels insane once you look at that internationally. The US for example control immigration yet it remains a very hot topic.
"EU did this ...", "EU did that ...".
"EU made it difficult to leave", "EU has inveigled itself in our national life", etc.
All of this presentation stems from the premise that EU is an external agent. As if UK wasn't a part of it. For 47 years.
the EU is mostly Germany calling the shots and France's megalomania. UK has a completely different legal framework which doesn't allow the weasling out of rules that the Germans write in their interest, and civil law countries apply less strictly. what part of the EU was actually shaped by the UK?
Gallup Poll recently found upward mobility in UK is back at Edwardian levels. According to Shelter, one quarter of our children are growing up in poverty. This and the fact many rely on food banks is an obscenity in the 21st Century. There’s a burgeoning under class who are invisible to the chattering classes. We are on the cusp of creating parallel UKs. This divergence if not addressed will make itself known once the energy bills double this Easter
Welfare breeds an underclass.
@@lennylaa1686 Do we cut welfare or pay more ?
@@lennylaa1686 so does appalling mismanagement of our property market, political corruption, horribly overpriced and undervalued universities, the eradication of manufacturing and production of pretty much any kind, greed and our country being globally relevant primarily as a tax haven for the mega wealthy.
Were a tiny really rich country(London) thats surrounded by a small and very poor one(pretty much everywhere else)
One of the arguments of Brexiters was "ged rid of Brussels" and "bring power back". World's biggest market is the EU with 430 million consumers. If British companies intend to export to the EU they must comply with EU rules. Once the standard is set they are not going to manufacture some products with "EU standards" and other with "UK standards". At the end power is still in Brussels and UK is out of the rule making process.
@Israel Hands I doubt it. Just like the German car industry didn’t gallop to our rescue. Germany is in the Eu and the Eu comes first. Citroen could probably handle not assembling any rhd models and losing the UK market altogether They ll still sell in 26 other countries
Actually as a brexiteer l long for a return to the old Common Market which already had a kind of single market and customs union if I'm correct. We already had cooperation with Europe on many fronts, legal economic and scientific. We had town twinning, a fashion which now seems defunct. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Maastrich/Lisbon broke it. Let sleeping dogs lie they say.
@@leonardgibney2997 of course, You knew what you were voting for didn’t you? Except you didn’t. Thanks. Now we’re all worse off
It’s not only the biggest market but also the richest! India is a huge market but they don’t have any buying power. There was a graph in this lecture that show all big nations outside the EU and the impact on the U.K. economy was close to nothing, India was on that list. Before Brexit the U.K. exported less to India than Belgium, I can’t understand what would have changed, obviously nothing.
@Israel Hands embarrassing statement, completely out of touch. They need us more than we need them. SURE! 🤦♂️🤮🤢🤪🤯
It cracks me up the way ‘experts’ keep saying, “One thing none of us foresaw”
Many of us foresaw many things that the so-called experts never considered.
What, if anything, were the experts actually considering?
In fact an expert is not a fortune teller but you clearly are. However math and statistics do give certain things away but with a brainless clueless government nobody saw anything coming.
His prediction at the end that Brexit would become markedly more unpopular if it was ever reframed as an economic issue rather than a political one has held up very well! Though tbh nobody could have predicted the insanity of Liz Truss becoming PM and deciding that the best way to tame inflation was by giving a tax cut to millionaires.
Biggest own goal in the history of the UK. Phil Jones would be proud
I was explaining to a Spanish friend that brexit was not a success. She corrected me. "No, no, no, fue una putada".
I think she was more accurate than I.
If NI succeeds over the next few years in redirecting its trade toward the single market and away from the UK, then Scotland should be able to do the same post independence.
@Israel Hands The republic has already largely redirected the trade it does with the EU to avoid transitting through the UK. NI is trading more with the republic and the rest of the EU than it did before. I'm sure Scotland will and can do the same if it comes to it. It's about taking the path of least resistance. England being the resistance.
You not understanding stuff doesn't make it necessarily ridiculous.
@Israel Hands Shalom. 😑
@@Nick-kb6jd Ireland got bailed out by the EU to the tune of €1 billion to cover Brexit costs. That's just the first instalment. They'll got another billion to take them to 2025. The French and Germans are delighted about that.
@@0w784g Wonderful example of the benefit of being part of a giant members club. If only the UK could recover some of the billions lost through Brexit costs.
@@damarekonayaro5781 I'm sure French and German taxpayers are delighted.
I'm not sure that the effect of Brexit on UK agriculture will be quite as positive as Prof. Menon hopes. For one thing, being in the EU has led to increased specialisation across the Union. The UK won't, at least in the short term, compete with Spain in growing oranges. The ability to provide specific support to specific forms of agriculture cannot have much, if any, effect there.
I don't expect the UK government, freed from 'EU shackles', to enforce strict environmental standards either. Indeed, it sounds like standards will be weakened, putting domestic producers of high quality produce at a massive disadvantage.
The increased awareness of economically disadvantaged areas of the country is a positive, but only if it forces the government to act to help those areas. This is very unlikely from the current government. If the negative impacts of Brexit are along the lines of that (withdrawn) government forecast, then there could well be a massive levelling *down* effect. Not having unfettered access to the EU market on our doorstep will make this more, rather than less likely.
The other problem in UK Agricultural sector is that it is reliant from foreign labor especially from Eastern European country.
@@senoalamsyah7481
The Westminster Tories have sold out UK farmers with the trade agreements signed with Australia and New Zealand.
UK farmers will be competing against massive farms that don't have the same standards of animal husbandry etc. eventually without tariffs.
@@martindornan1667 you really replying 1 year old comment of mine. I'm not British not European but even after Brexit, the agricultural that ofcourse reliant on Farmers cannot be deal with the British farmer alone since there shortage on Farmers in the UK so as agricultural commodity need to be stable the UK Will only have two choice which are more import or accepting foreign Labor. Since Brexit the foreign Labor still use in agricultural sector so not really change before or after Brexit. The different is they employ more cheap Labor from Asia for example my country Indonesia, usually our fruit picker Will get a job from Australia or New Zealand abroad but 2 year ago there are agency or outsource that offered job to the UK. Which for me personally, i seen more like exploitation than working.
What a great presentation! It explains so much
In a pro EU bias.
@@narancauk which is the only correct bias - anything else is idiocy.
@@narancauk You misspelled "pro reality".
@@harmless6813 F. O.
@@narancauk Hm. No. :P
What I have learned so far, has been very rewarding : I moved to Spain in 2016, and became an immigrant, unable to speak the language and required to deal with much essential bureaucracy.
It was an education.
I feel I´ve learned things about England, as well as about Andalucia, from this new point of vantage, and I feel welcome here. I wanted to remain in Europe, and was fortunate to be able to do so. I see no signs of Britain learning much from its mistakes, as you first have to acknowledge them -- and that seems a bitter pill to swallow.
To me it looks like Britain is being pushed into dependance on the USA, having alienated its friends, neighbours and main trading partners. A pathetic, but not undeserved finale to a rapacious empire which has plundered much of the planet.
There is this sense of entitlement within England that is terribly hard to stamp out. That 'We English beat Germany', 'Monty saved Western Europe' and more of that claptrap. It is almost as if the EU has become 'The New Enemy To Beat'. Whereas the EU keeps trying to avoid a worldwide breakdown of communication. Ah, but what I know, right?
"a rapacious empire which has plundered much of the planet." Is it Spain you're referring to?
You didn’t have to move to Spain to stay in Europe. We’re still in Europe. it’s a trading block we left, not a continent.
@@0w784g AS you know, it was Britain, though many empires have risen and fallen, the Spanish, the Dutch and the USA which has yet to collapse completely, etc.
"Empires fall, the dogs bark, and the caravan moves on".
JJ, I don´t think you have "moved on."
@@adgeyuk9803 I´m not saying that you are wrong, since we see it from different viewpoints, but from my perspective as an Englishman living in Spain, there is now much more of a rift between Britain and Europe. Regardless of what might be written on paper, I sense the feeling that a small island which used to be a difficult partner has finally flounced off to the relief of those remaining. I can´t even buy goods from the UK without paying extra taxes and waiting longer delivery times.
So as I see it, the UK has, to all intents and purposes, left the continent.
It never really fitted in.
The NI agreement is safe - not because the majority in NI are content with it but because the USA insists on it. A less then subtle message was sent when the USA withdrew punitive steel tariffs on EU steel but not UK (it later withdrew the tariff ). Being now largely friendless in the World we cannot afford to alienate the USA.
Ha! A Salty Bitter Remoaner :-D
@@watchiingunow618 Whilst I never wished for BREXIT the trauma it is causing (and will continue to cause for a decade or more) will act like a political enema forcing long overdue political change in the UK. As the older generation (my generation) who created the majority for BREXIT die the younger generation ('the generation shafted by BREXIT) will drive radical change and it will not be in the direction the most zealous BREXITEERS hoped for. BREXIT is delivering for me exactly what I expected. I hope it is living up to your expectations.
@@watchiingunow618 facts not your thing?
@@sisuguillam5109 One fact. We are no longer in the EU.
@@watchiingunow618 Or a realist?
Or to be inflammatory, not a stupidist.
This is a very fair, very informative, and very entertaining lecture. Please bring this guy back.
Not !
@@johnwalters5131 Please explain why.
@@italktoomuch6442 mi response was barred and i cannot recall the content , sorry .
A third of the electorate, never even bothered to vote. Just start with that issue.
@@seang2700 Yes I understand that. Law and common sense clash. I'm getting on now, so I gave my vote to my children as did their mother. It's their future.
One of the best lectures I've seen on this topic.
So the GB is very financially unequal country and by voting Brexit it will be even more so, it has already started with raised taxes for the poor higher electricity bills food get more expensive and so forth. Now workers rights is getting lowered, sewage is being dumped in the rivers and the Tory party have passed on billions to their pals for nothing. What exactly is the benefits for the working man that voted leave, what did he expect to be better in his life and what got better, not counting that he could keep his money in tax heavens in the West Indies?
Nothing to do with Brexit. People voted for Conservative governments and got Conservative policies.
Excellent summary of real life in the UK. The Brexit Tories are corrupt and their leader is a Liar without a conscience. They do not care about the working classes only their off shore investments and ripping of Taxpayer's and those who can not afford to feed their children.
@@MorganMadej
What you are saying is that Britain is governed by the sort of people who become politicians everywhere, and always have. What else do you expect? Why would you expect anything else?
I despair that I inhabit the same country as those who voted Leave. They have flushed the uk down the toilet. I despise the Tories and it's all been a jolly game what-ho to the Rees Moggs and Johnsons
Cheap EU labour cut UK wages for many years.
Energy prices have increased everywhere around the world...supply and demand..
in a year's time, they will fall as covid shutdown is ended.
This man is one of the best lecturers i have ever seen, after 9 years of post-secondary education.
Agreed.
Excellent.
And with a great sense of humour.
Absolutely fantastic lecture!
Enlightening and informative thanks for sharing
42:38 "this is a very unequal country" - thats the point. I have been in the UK in 2018 coming from germany : this was my deepest impression.
Exactly, it's completely ridiculous. 8/10 of the poorest regions in NORTHERN Europe are in the UK. Just goes to show the source of the political unhappiness in the UK: the class society. Greetings from Finland.
Absolutely excellent lecture, thank you.
This lecture should be given by an economist with a specialization in international trade. The USA could loan you Paul Krugman or Adam Posen. But it might be better to wait another year, until pain is maximized.
The talk is much better toward the end when the economic information is discussed, especially when the economic disparity of regions of the UK is discussed.
I don’t see the logic in his statement that agriculture is an area of benefit. That is based on faith. The present data indicates that British agriculture is being damaged by Brexit.
Brexshit is hurting G B, that is for sure.
I think you read in too much in his statement. He's saying UK has the ability to make better regulation for agriculture than inside EU. He's not claiming that the result is going to be better, only that the potential exists.
@@TWFydGlu That only jives with what the Brexit campaign was touting - and politicians' promises mean nothing. All evidence points to the contrary. What US interests have clearly laid out seems far more likely, and it means complete devastation for British farming and British food quality.
As someone in the remain camp, I have to accept that we must live with the bed as it has been made and that it would be just as problematic to attempt to clamber back towards EU membership, however, we surely have to try and renegotiate a Norway style arrangement going forward, in simple recognition that it was an illogical act to have attempted to divest from the EU as we did.
Norway = Pay...but no say.
@@lennylaa1686 That's what it's going to look like some time in the future. But I guess, not before the UK economy tanks and NI and Scotland leave the union.
@Lenny Laa so what is better "Pay - but no say, while (don't forget) still clearly benefiting from Single Market" or like rather more schizophrenic view by Conservative MEPs at the time - Pay and pretend there is no say!" Now as a result we have "Nor pay, neither say and real terms cost of leaving (and living) spiralling up!
@@marteenez4987 Pay, yes, ...pay billions like before, so it's vital money down the drain.
And obeying all sorts of bureaucratic rules.
But that was the point of Brexit, to get out!!!!
The beurocratic rules just weren't that bad.
If u want to trade goods without barrier across an entire continent then of course u need rules that account for everyone and methods of resolving disputes. U can frame that as red tape, but in reality, without that tape holding things together a lot of the trade just doesn't happen. Which is where we are now.
This confirms my initial conviction that Brexit was a monumental act of self harm and extreme stupidity
Can't imagine anything that would not confirm your initial conviction: can you?
Enjoyed the lecture. Thanks Professor Menon.
I'm enjoying the lecture but thinking his slides are sometimes "off" -
Talking about how EU works as if you would not have been among the countries that created it. What have you been doing all those years in there?
One of the big three, with outsize influence to boot!!!
Brexit as a political science topic is absolutely fascinating. Unfortunately it's so poisoned by partisan politics that it's impenetrable in day-to-day conversation.
I agree it is fascinating, but not as political science. The partisan politics and high emotion are part of an existential crisis for Britain far larger than any policy considerations. France, Portugal, Spain, Holland, they were all here before. Leavers want to believe that Britain can still be the nation upon which the sun never sets. Remainers accept that the sun will rise and set on the UK just like any other country. The core of the EU is nations that were once enormously important and have made peace with the fact that those days are over. Britain has been in denial for a century now. Britain rode on reputation after WWI, then it's Finest Hour hid that it was an essentially weakened nation. It covered the loss of India by becoming the most powerful partner to the US in the Cold War. That relationship was made more powerful when the UK joined the EU. The UK became a vital link between the Continent and the US. But the fact is, from an international perspective, what is Britain without the EU? Who really needs Britain? Does Scotland even need Britain?
It is a very simple and straight forward topic. If one burns the bridges with you 27 closest neighbour's then it will hurt you. The loss of the single market membership and customs union make a lot if business models in part or as s whole no longer profitable. But thus stops nit there as the UK worsened its position globally as the UK losses the EU trade network if hundreds of treaties. So the only outcome can be worse. Not to mention that zero British politicians meet their 27 counter parts any longer in the EU. The UK becomes the estranged uncle who one rarely sees. It us really a very simple topic and I say this with zero emotional investment in that. This is what the experts said and thus is hoe it plays out.
Dumb American here. Im so glad i came across this video. I'm fascinated by the complexity of Brexit. Finding out that the UK doesnt have a defined constitution was shocking. I always assumed that the US got the idea of constitutional law from the UK. Apperently not! Great video!
A very informative and well-balanced lecture, thank you.
I live in Austria and wasn’t following the details much (too big of a mess, so would need lots of time), but the NI issue seemed like a giant, ignored part of Brexit. When I learned that Scotland was against it, too, I thought the same thing others mentioned here: Well, that’s one way to break up the UK. (never mind that the old people fcked the young, er, royally with their vote)
The Brits shouldn't mind breaking up with Scotland. After all they know now that countries leave unions. The U.K. young sabotaged their own future. Most stayed at home and cast no vote. They would otherwise have won.
Simply Outstanding. Thankyou
Regarding Article 50: 18 months to sort out a new trade deal is a very short time. This is probably where the EU and UK differ the most. EU thinks a trade deal is something that you need to spend a lot of time on, UK thinks it is a two step rocket where you first sign a deal and then starts to tinker with it afterwards. Hence the problems with the NI protocol.
Fully agree. And to Mr. Menon's remark of the Article 50 process to be unfair to the UK: Well, as a member of the EU the UK participated in the creation of the EU legislation and voted for it. They have to blame themselves. Again.
The problem is not the problem.
Brexshit is the problem.
This whole lecture can be summed up in "never leave a fundamental life changing decision to a simple majority vote based on a binary question!"
in the end you realise that menon is profoundly anty eu principles of free movement of labour, capital, goods and services. he also subtely insinuates that britons do not mind sky high migration as long as it comes from asia.
and what was that argument about "re-ploughing"???