Why Russia can't take the skies over Ukraine
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- čas přidán 10. 03. 2022
- As experts the world over continue to try to divine why Russia has failed to capture air dominance over Ukraine two weeks into the fighting, stories, pictures and videos of Russian aircraft being downed by Ukraine’s military continue to surface. It would seem that popular perceptions of Russia’s military-which have been intentionally shaped by Moscow for years-are beginning to unravel as Russian forces pour further into its embattled neighbor.
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Citations:
-Justin Bronk's analysis: rusi.org/explore-our-research...
-Guy Plopsky's quotation: theaviationist.com/2022/03/04...
Further Reading:
-Russia's focus on perception is costing them the skies over Ukraine: www.sandboxx.us/blog/russias-...
-How Russia uses the media to convey a false image of military prowess: www.sandboxx.us/blog/russias-...
I worked for Boeing years ago, and it's one thing to create a few technology demonstrators, and a completely different thing the create a fully operational platform with the logistics, maintenance and integration to back it up during a conflict. Russia has managed to build some modern looking pieces of equipment in recent years, but the beauty is skin deep. The core of those systems still date to 80s era Soviet technologies.
building a machine is easy, building the machine that makes the machines is hard.
evertything is computer now days.
and Russia can't make advanced computer chips.
And their once proud space sector is stuck with 1960ies tech...
@@Fiercefighter2 Yea I retired from ADI in 2015. ADI is Boeing's second largest supplier of parts. I was a tool maker there for ten years. I never met any machinist that could make a shaft with eight or ten journals that had to be with in one thousanths of an inch total run out. I learned the trade in the Detroit area.
The Russian Lada really was a great car. How could you go wrong with a tractor engine? Very robust. Their jets carry the same philosophy, could probably ingest an F35 and still fly, If it could ever get close enough to one?
My wife is Ukrainian. My in-laws live there and are enduring the most frightening time of their lives. I hope there will be peace soon.
Praying now for your in-laws to stay safe, and for peace to come soon. Amen.
God bless, This indeed your independence Day!! I only wish NATO would have your back!!!
Amen to that and I hope your family remains safe and well. Where do they live in ukraine?
@@debbie997 It's not that simple Debbie. Russia is a nuclear power and capable of causing vast destruction on a global scale. VVP is by nature and nurture a KGB bully. Who now feels empowered by the weakness of his perceived enemies.
We now find ourselves in a mess. Caused by 30 years of short sighted wrong decisions.
@@1111lizzard Thank you.
Excellent video in every respect. While I've known of most of what you discuss here, you are the very first as far as I know, to bring all these factors into focus. Keep of the great work.
That was an excellent analysis. Thank you and keep ‘em coming.
As an armature military “analyst” for the past 25 years, I think this video is one of the best I have seen. Your were able to condense a lot of technical data into a short and easily understood story. Well done. I wish the mainstream media would provide such analysis. Even half as good, would be better the the political motivated half-truths they are currently “reporting” about the Ukraine conflict/war.
The numbers are with Putin: 1 million active soldiers, "infinite" number of missiles, aircrafts, bombers and armoured vehicles, but now it seems Putin can only raze Ukraine to the ground, if he wants to take it. The sad thing is NATO can't do anything because of the nuclear threat Putin uses. Lucid madman or chess player, Putin tries to avoid every peace negotiation until he marked a strong point on the field. It's unfair to watch Russians hitting deliberately civilians and we can't help if not sending manpads and stingers. With a no fly zone, Russia would remain stuck in the mud, like their tanks and military vehicles. I also wonder if what Russian captured/surrendered soldiers is true about their fate in Russia, if they go back refusing to fight: being shot as defectors.
@@delpinsky amen its all lies we are hearing. God bless the Ukrainian people but it's all lies.
This “video“ is a collection of stock footage and has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine so your comment is messed up. If you mean the commentary within the video you are closer to the mark but Putin‘s gamble is turning out to be correct: we are too chicken to engage him for fear of losing our way of life. In the end we will be forced to engage like we did at the very end of both other world wars!
@@nixl3518 The inept and inherently corrupt biden administration are incapable of handling Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and his cronies. Their woke weakness renders American might worthless as a deterrent. That is why the Russians thought it was the right time to invade Ukraine and it is why Taiwan will also be invaded. The only good thing to come out of this mess. Is the fact that the obvious weakness of the USA, will result in a much stronger president elected next time. If election integrity can be guaranteed.
@@gusgone4527 Your comment reflects your blind Trumpian bias. Saying the words "inept, corrupt, incapable" etc, does not make them true! It's just you hurling epithets without a clue. You have no capacity to see how bad we had it under Trump!! He has no clue how to govern, only how to take our world apart, like a gangster that he is!! He thinks Putin is smart!! Really??? Watch what will happen to him soon, by his own people. This was his biggest gaffe!!
That Biden is cautious does not make him any of the words you throw without any responsibility! I wish he threatened Putin with nuclear war if he dared invade Ukraine!! That would have forced him to back down!! But he has to consult with others to get there and he doesn't want to lose the alliance he put back together after Trump demolished it. Putin consults no one and that is why we have a rogue emperor!! Thankfully, Trump is gone from our hair!! He calls Putin brilliant!! In what??? He is an idiot!! That Putin can level Ukraine to a pulp makes him smart? He is just jealous of the absolute power Putin has and wanted it for himself and thought that being Putin's pal would help him become just such an emperor!! That is nothing to be proud of!! He is a killer not unlike Hitler, Mussolini, Pol Pot etc. You know what happened to them, right? But that was AFTER they killed millions!! Now we have a reprise of the same old show killing innocent people. He does not have much longer.
We live in a sophisticated world you cannot understand. it's not as simple as bad mouthing a president because you like the idiot we had forced down our throats by Putin himself!! Get an education; travel overseas as see how others live. These experiences give you a better understanding of the world outside of the town you live in!.
You have said it! Congratulations! I have been listening to many military commentators lately and none of them dare to admit that for years, they have been too conciliatory with the Russian armed forces. Overhauled Soviet era equipment, low flight hours for their pilots, logistics issues and a corrupted regime can’t bring you very far. Good video!
They are grifters who are paid by think tanks to hype up potential adversaries in order to drive up the MIC's stocks, so they will never admit they are wrong.
Reminds me of the CIA talk before the Berlin Wall fell about how the USSR was here to stay... a lot of this kind of talk is done for US budget purposes (keeps budgets funded).
More so to keep intelligence officers and their agencies empowered as the only ones capable of protecting us from the Socialist Marxist Communist boogie men. The self-preservation of such governmental functionaries hiding behind need to know always takes precedence over the sanctity of our USARepublic.
Guys, HERE is Our Savior
YaH The Heavenly FATHER HIMSELF was Who they Crucified for our sins and “HERE IS THE PROOF”
From the Ancient Semitic Scroll:
"Yad He Vav He" is what Moses wrote, when Moses asked YaH His Name (Exodus 3)
Ancient Semitic Direct Translation
Yad - "Behold The Hand"
He - "Behold the Breath"
Vav - "Behold The NAIL"
Remember when Saddam’s Iraq had the fourth largest military, made up of the very best Russian equipment and the very best Russian training and on-site advisers? Sure looked good on paper, didn’t it? Didn’t work out too well for Saddam, did it?
And now, with a bunch of farmers in Ukraine holding their own against the highly vaunted Russian military, who is going to want to buy Russian military equipment today? Heck, if I was a current customer, I think I’d be looking for a refund and/or looking to dump my Russian inventory asap.
Great vid. Thanks for keeping it real
I was 3 minutes into the video when i realized i already saw it. Did i change video's? No, because i was hooked again.. no one dishes out this amount of information while making it interesting and enjoyable. Your 1 in a million alex, you got a fan for life
You failed to.mention that the US military and its contractors have been consistently overstating Russian capacity for 70 years to drive military spending in the US. Bomber gap, middle gap, sub gap, and on and on and on.
No one gets a bigger budget by being wrong, so I don't think that holds as much weight as your giving it but very good point indeed though
We must not allow a mineshaft gap
Absolutely. I remember perfectly well those "Soviet Military Might" encyclopedias published annually by the Pentagon hierarchy to show and scare the American taxpayers that Soviet technology was was indeed a force to be reckoned with. It was just money for good ol' military-industrial complex.
The present gap being addressed is the access denial gap created by China's rocketry.
William, you hit it on the nose. Gotta have a gap or no $$$.
Like Hitler before him, Putin in COVID isolation made Dictator 101 mistake of mistakes: He drank his own kool-aid. He started believing his own hype.
And now he is sitting, just like Hitler before him, in a bunker getting constant updates on the war and nothing else.
He is really loosing touch. But old men usually do sooner or later.
Putin has always prided himself on his soulless attributes. He thinks he's a super gifted manipulator as well. Honestly if it's a human condition type of thing I'd say this is because ptin is getting old, and does not want to fade away without being a really big deal. He thinks he can make Russia great again.
Reading this with English as a second language… it makes complete sense eventually, but is a fever dream trying to get there
@@fencserx9423 You are so right! I have English as my third language, so yeah, I totally agree
His post is definitely not an introduction to English, ie English 101.
@@fencserx9423 I can see why that would be a problem! Retrospectively anyway. 🤪👈
Great video that condenses a complicated topic into a 16 minute video 👍
I remember my father (an old cold warrior bomber pilot from the WWII - 1960's) telling me about being on team that went to inspect a Soviet defector plane. It may have been the one they retconned from a B-29 they got their hands on. Or maybe a later fighter in Korea.
Anyway, he was laughing about how from 50 ft. away, the plane looked fairly impressive. But when they got up to it, they all immediately noticed one thing: No flush rivets.
The plane's skin was literally put together with the same kind of protruding rivets you would build a barn or grain bin with. Aerodynamically, this would have been a nightmare.
The avionics were similarly primitive. And our kill ratio against these planes in whatever conflict was massively lopsided. As it has been in every proxy conflict we have had with them for the last 70 years.
The thing about a Kleptocracy is: To loot the economy for the few at the top...the money has to come from somewhere. And when you are basically a gas station with a seat at the UN and some nuclear weapons?
The greatest illusion is Russia's military power
The parade in red square right after world war 2, Russia made a great scenery with military power and filmed it
With bombers which was thought be be in the four digit, West response was to litterly make bombers in four digits
Sovjet fooled the west by making bombers circle past and back to camera, so each bomber was filmed several times
Yeah but those planes where deadly. Mig 15s/17s+ where simple yes but deadly and built quickly. Lots changed USSR did have great advancements. Arguably built a better shuttle, heck drone flew n landed it years b4 USA could do it w/o a pilot
The Russian airforce would be doing a lot better if Russia's oligarchs hadn't been pocketing all those billions of rubles meant for the Russian Armed Forces.
The Russian military is going to have to do a gofundme campaign to raise money for food in another month.
@@toddr2265 you bet they will, it's been happening in USSR back in times when the government was repeatedly issuing bonds or debentures and forcing workers to buy it (basically, paid some amount of salaries with it), promising to pay it back with an interest. I have no doubt that if the government runs out of money, it will do it again.
That’s Russia. It was Russia under the Tsar. It was Russia under the Soviets. It’s Russia today
@@ravenmoon5111 Putin is Making Russia Great Again
@@carlosolivares7436
Lol. Yes. As a Chinese vassal state. Their about to default on their entire foreign
Debt. They are about to take actions that will ensure no western nation invests in Russia for the next 20 years, and their currently is worth less than tissue paper.
Russia in a month they will be so desperate that they will sell their souls to Beijing and once they do that, well, Russia won’t be able to take a dump without Xi’s okay.
Putin thought he could trust Xi, but the Chinese only care about money and power. Once Russia has neither, they will be nothing more that a refrigerator full of things the Chinese will take at their leisure.
But we should thank Russia. They have brought the west together in time to face China. Now it’s only China and the west that matter. Russia is… well, nothing
Apart from the factors you mention, there are two confounding factors at play as well. For one there is rampant corruption among the Russian forces which leads to even more avenues of failure as funds that were meant for maintenance have been siphoned off. Secondly the one area where bad maintenance will show more than anywhere else is aircraft, they're the least forgiving in that regard.
Heads will roll.
Plus armour you have to work on it every day almost.
@@garethonthetube Why? They are all on the take...
@@Tabacish
Yeah but you need a lot of low ranking officials and the odd higher up to blame to keep the grift going, not to mention to save your own skin. When it comes to throwing people under the bus it helps if you're the one running the bus depot.
If they can be believed, there were rumors coming out of Belarus that Russian soldiers were selling diesel and buying vodka during the recent field exercises. It's not hard to believe because there is a history of this kind of activity. Pilots and crew of the Tu22 Blinder bombers would steal the ethanol/distilled water mixture(vodka) for the cooling system and sell it.
Really great work, thank you!
This is exactly what I have been thinking for a long time, with regards to the new weapon announcements. But the actual ineffectiveness of their military is a bit surprising.
@Matias D.C isn't that mostly artillery and some missiles?
yes they dont distroy cities like the usa does. they dont kill people with crazy ass bombs that use magice abra cadabra the building is entirly gone !! yet the russian little old missiles are a war crime!!!
@@kamalaqqad7893 The US hasn’t destroyed cities from the air since WWII. Even if we wanted to kill civilians (which we don’t want to do), that’s an incredibly wasteful use of very expensive ordnance. The US and all Western nations take care to target specific enemy military positions and minimize damage to any civilians or civilian structures. Unfortunately, civilians are sometimes killed and other buildings are sometimes destroyed, but this is due to bad intelligence info, not an intent to kill innocent people. To be fair, Russia did seem to be attempting to only hit military targets in the first week or so of the invasion. But then they got frustrated (and possibly ran out of precision weapons) and just said “screw it” and are now leveling civilian neighborhoods and apartments.
@Matias D.C They are delusional. Just swallowing what corporate media is giving them. They bigger the lie, the harder the fall. Western world is about to collapse
@@bluemarlin8138 The US only used bombers to take out buildings in Yugoslavia in '99
such an underrated channel
No, now its overrated with deliberate assertions and speculations being presented as fact along deliberate disinformation.
Iskander's development started in 1988 and was not in service until mid 2000's unlike author of video implying opposite by omission of such fact along labeling Mig-31 dated when modernized variants are also have possibly longest radar range among Russian fighter jets and certainly air to air missiles. Mig-31 can act as AWACS, an armed AWACS.
Author of this video did not even bother to consider in video of Russia not going all in on Ukraine in case of potential intervention of NATO thus reserving forces for potential conflict.
I remember being terrified of the Russian military machine through the 60's, 70's and 80's, only to learn it was far less capable than advertised in 90's and after. I've seen videos hyping Russian jets, especially the SU-57, and assumed they was more fantasy than reality. That cobra maneuver might be the greatest piece of marketing in history.
I once had a big internet argument agai st an aviation fan who argued how dominant the super maneuvers of the Russian jets will be. I simply argued that it means nothing against a missle that can do 9g turns. I then watched the crowd call me stupid because I was arguing against a guy who works at an airport or some crap. Lunacy
@@mineduck3050 I wonder how that Russian jet would do against a directed beam weapon that is immune to high G's. :-)
@@mineduck3050 9G? Try 25-30.
@@mineduck3050 I'm pretty sure that missiles can pull a lot more than 9G's
Love it when people bring up the Cobra manuvoer. Hope U know that the Swedes & their J-35 actually used it first. I believe it.
Sandbox, you have a great information platform. So glad I came across your channel as I have gone through other channels that are more of a recycled media without anything credible but what other channels may have which are'nt necessarily new information that has the facts in greater detail and back it up as Sandbox clearly and simply lays out.
A great presentation, Alex. Thanks !
When your maskirovka is so widespread that you believe it yourself. Slava Ukraini.
@Wiegraf Biden and the Democratic Party helped a lot.
@Wiegraf He really stepped right into that without even the slightest thought.
It's on those kind of people maskirovka works wonders.
@Wiegraf thanks to his war now western population is much less divided than before. What did he achieve by waging this war? I struggle to grasp anything.
EXACTLY. They believed their own bullsheet!!!
A friend of mine was in the Ist Guards Tank Army in the 80’s. He predicted to me that Russian T-80s and T-90s would break down all over the place, and they’s have loads of ‘blue on blues’. I didn’t really believe him. I do now.
We dont have any data on breakdowns or friendly fire so its impossible to say at this stage. Of course if you watch Western media the Ukrainians are winning the war but reality is the complete opposite. And your not the only one with friends who served in the Soviet or Russian military and who have told me everything is under control.
@@Internetbutthurt Rubbish. We have actual footage of a considerable number of wrecked Russian vehicles; and video shows Russian tanks bunched up in an amateur manner. They aren’t the force they were.
@@davethebrahman9870 Yet zero bodies. Zero physical evidence of any Russian casualties.
@@davethebrahman9870 okeey but how do you know how old are these images?
i mean there was action in ukraine since 2014, so its very hard to identify the losses to the current invasion
@@homelessjesse9453 you are out of your mind. There are an ASSLOAD of videos of Russian casualties. The best one I've seen was the guys face was literally almost like it was cut out, by a round. It was amazing to see that, from a scientific standpoint.
you talked about the Wild Weasels while showing footage of an F16 from Spang....LOVE it! great editing and research
I’ve always viewed logistics as the Achilles heel of Russia’s aerospace industry. Fabulous engineers, but no process.
I wouldn't argue it's a proper logistics problem...but a logistics problem for the way they "want" to fight in Ukraine. Their entire military is built to fight (still) in a more Soviet/Cold War fashion....agregious artillery, overwhelming bombing, waves of tanks, etc. We're fortunate they have elected not to go all out in Ukraine. I think, however, they have no capacity to fight what we would consider a modern, more sterile conflict. They definitely have a massive logistical shortage of the fancy new gear. Let's hope that doesn't lead to them deciding to revert to their old "flatten the entire country" methodology.
@@oskar6661 / Flattening everything is much easier, but in this case not necessary. They’ve already accomplished their far larger global financial objectives and will use up ammo at hand. I give them 2 weeks after which they’ll pitch the West a dry diplomatic bone. We shall see.
@@conservativemike3768 Yes. that seems to be the analysis of some of the other US Generals who have seen warfare though they won't openly say 2 weeks of anything that definitive - which is a good thing too.
Logistics seems to be a problem with their military full stop.
@Matias D.C / They we’re just out of practice.
Dude your channel is second to none when it comes to military and military news videos.
I thinks it’s crazy your channel isn’t much more popular than it is right now. Keep doing exactly what you’re doing because it’s absolutely top notch!
Knowing the inept state of his military, this explains why Putin played his "nuke card" so early.
Very possible, also it's very possible the madman might be more likely to USE the nuke card if he thinks his country is being attacked, really...what would stop him?
@@nickm764 hopefully his close General's.
The "nuke card" is far away from what we sites and movies show believe me. If someone has interest let's read more about Russia Nuke Weapons Procedures, read what needs to be done for the Actual strike, read for one of the most important segment submarines and how after the Kursk this part of the army HATE putin ( yes small letter for him ) because he not save their comrades, and in real life event they will not execute the command, you can find so much information about this topic, and Yes - he cant alone just press a button or something like this - he and shougu and another general must do it, plus another four people and if some of them reject, nothing happens, not to mention how readable are 'the nukes' in real-life situation...
Beside nukes he has no chance against nato forces so he might go chemical but not nuclear because that's end game ,and I think he wold be taken out before that was employed
According to Western, not Russian, media, there has been a 40-mile long convoy of Russian tanks and Russian trucks stationed outside Kiev for more than a week. Now a stationed convoy, is supposed to be the ideal military target for bombing. Yet nobody has touched them. So much for the Russians supposedly not having "air superiority".
Very interesting video! And finally someone who mentions the concept of "maskirovka" as important element of russian strategy/tactics
Nice 👍 job reporting this. Sounds like you covered it all well.
Great video, I appreciate the analysis.
Amazing content like always. Thank you
Alex,
Thank you so much. Reflexive control makes sense. I really liked your report.
Thank you for the great analysis
- Ghost, the Russian air force is way stronger on paper than we are! wHaT N0w??
- well, then we won't fight those ba$tards on paper.
Unfortunately Ghost is more myth than legend.. The footage of Ghost shooting down a Russian fighter is from a video game.
People forget what a small nation Russia is economically. Despite huge natural resources and a population of 145 million, It’s GDP is about the same as Italy. One American aircraft carrier costs twice the entire annual Russian defence budget.
GDP approximately twice the size of Italy-- but still...
Mig 31 also only costs about 15 million euros so Russia can produce more equipment than west can for some amount of money.
@@puellamservumaddominum6180 They look like something built in the 1950s. Rivets and sloppy fiberglass. a garbage plane from a failed nation.
Your numbers are way off. Aircraft carriers don't cost 120 Billion dollars. They cost 10 billion. Russia spends 60 plus billion a year on defense and has a GDP of over 1,500,000,000. Maybe under this year due to sanction.
Bravo! Great video, Alex!
An excellent, succinct analysis, realistic, not alarmist nor dismissive.
Nicely done. With the head of the FSBs foreign service, Sergey Orestovich Beseda and his deputy on house arrest apparently for falsely representing Ukraine's ability to defend itself, one has to consider if team Putin began to believe their own lies about their projected capability. Or perhaps his military advisor's willingness to speak the truth for fear of reprisal. Nonetheless, this is an excellent overview of the broad picture of Russian air power and its tactical effectiveness in a modern combat environment.
I’ve always wondered about how much of what they say do Russian Officials actually believe. Particularly someone like the foreign minister Sergi Lavrov, who seems like a pretty intelligent guy with years of diplomatic experience, but then has to stand there and try and explain how Russia did not invade Ukraine, and how the war is not actually a war, or how the Ukrainian army is actually destroying their cities themselves, or they’re developing nuclear and biological weapons and other nonsense claims. Surely he knows most of this stuff isn’t true, and so It must be so humiliating to have to face the world every couple of days and say things you know are total bullshit, and are constantly becoming more and more fanciful and ridiculous.
@@shanetonkin2850 the population is filled with sociopaths who are willing to lie to anyone if it butters their bread. they have no qualms about committing treason if the price is right. Putin a psychopath would commit treason at the drop of a hat if he was at lower levels. you have to be a sociopath to get high positions most anywhere in the world
I don't think there is a "team Putin". I think he's surrounded by yes-men who are too shit scared to tell him he's fucked up.
@@shanetonkin2850 Lavrov is the new Comical Ali
Putin has found his fall guy. He will be blamed when all goes even more wrong.
Great insight. Thanks for sharing.
Excelent video and analysis. I would add that scince the russians have centuries of experience in influencing the worlds opinion of them. Started at the latest with the Potemkin villages in the reighn of Catherin the Great. However, the unravelling of the image of the army, at leadt, started with the inability to produce more than a prototype of the T14 Armata. Although the extent of neglect toward the existing equipment was not apparent until the past weeks
Thanks,, A Very Informative Piece.
Absolutely superb and insightful narration here by Alex Hollings. He's not just right...he's precisely perfect to each detail. The best anywhere.
Ya It was perfect. Like the big bullies that we all seen in high school, finally the guy that gets picked on has had enough and says, I'll see you out back after school. All kinds of people show up for the big showdown, and 1 of 2 things happen- The bully doesn't show up or/& if he does, he gets his ass kicked in 2 minutes. I've seen it, you guys have seen it. It's all a big fake shit show until it's showtime!
*Excellent* video! Basically a reality-check on the capabilities of Russia's forces - hype versus reality.
Keep up the great work!
We never learn from the past. Vietnam and Afghanistan is the same isn't it in some ways.
They're lacking air superiority, yet City after Ciry lay in ruins across Ukrain from Russian bombs.....
Whats been shown of the West on Russian operations is just pure propaganda though - not a single success yet the Russians have taken huge swathes of territory, encircled over 100K of Ukraine's best troops who wont last much longer, and effectively besieged the capital, all without killing 10000s of civilians like the US normally does and destroying the infrastructure of whole cities (Raqqa, Mosul, etc).
Another great video💪
@@Internetbutthurt yes indeed, I don’t get how people are such sheep’s. Yesterday we were bombing countries, today we point the fingers no one else to do it
First time on your channel.
Very good video.
Thanks for the insite.
Good video, I for one, appreciate the nuanced arguments made here
Eye-opening. They have had the chance to study how the US gained air superiority quickly during the gulf war. They should know at least what needs to be done to achieve it. Yet they have failed to do so during the first two weeks in Ukraine. It may also go to show that Nato supplied anti-aircraft weapons are superior.
🤡🌍
This would make sense if Russia was fighting Ukraine similar to how the USA fought during the Gulf War. If you are educated you should immediately see the numerous fallacies you are employing to reach these conclusions.
It's one thing to see it done. It's another to have the experience, ability and training to do it.
@@Ryukikon Instead of being a smart ass, why not explain what you mean?
Also, remember most of the equipment the west destroyed was Russian and they got rid of it within a week, a lot of Russian hot air but where the rubber met the road, almost total failure.
Great summary of the reality of the situation.
Thank you for highlighting the role of the maskirovka in conflict with Russia. They know that their military cannot compare to even modest nuclear powers like the UK or France.
The use of information warfare has always been a huge component of armed conflict for Russia. They do it because they just lack the military capability.
Imagine the added capability of the US military if we did the same...
See but the US military doesn't need a smoke and mirrors campaign we actually have the apparatus and can show it and we'll put it in combat
We don’t do the same because it isn’t what we strive to be. Honor and integrity are valued, not seen as an exploitable weakness as they are in Russia.
I think when this story is written, we'll learn that US intelligence was yanking Putin's chain by releasing selected info. Exposing invasion plans, cancer diagnosis, weird antler blood rituals, etc. Forcing him to shuffle his inner circle, put people under house arrest, etc. If nothing else, to paraphrase Lyndon Johnson, make the sumbitch deny it.
Of course nothing has been as effective as the willingness of the Russians to shoot themselves in the foot.
Glad you add the last part, o/w would’ve been hard to fathom
well i'm going to guess that no matter the craft, or country, when you fly that close to the ground you are highly vulnerable to hand launched weapons and what not. it's been that way since ww1. very hard to avoid such stuff no matter the training, or equipment when you only have maybe a 3 second warning. i remember during training when i was in they gave you life expectancy of everything in combat, tank crews for instance had a life expectancy of something like 4 seconds give or take a second. distance is your only friend when you are facing such countermeasures, the closer you are to incoming fire, the less chance you can do anything but blink.
In Vietnam, the US lost a third of its helicopters every year and nobody in the media ever questioned it.
but if they were able to take out high altitude weapons with SEAD, they'd be able to get air superiority. They're not able to do that, so they're forced to do the low altitude missions and that's why they're getting shot down every day.
Well, and in the end you uninstalled the simulator )
....the words of General Buck Turgidson playing in my mind.... You nailed it, Alex.
Care to quote?
Good video you touched on slot of things I was wondering about.
Fascinating. Thanks.
Love this article. You've nailed it on the head.
The Russians don’t seem to prioritize logistics. Allegedly their ground army has about 4,000 trucks. The US Army has close to 100,000. The lack of logistics is literally biting Putin in the ass
Same in WWII. The Ford trucks were 33% of the Soviet total by the end of the war, and were crucial in winning the war in the early stages (Stalingrad), which both Stalin and the famous RU general Zhukov freely admitted.
@StatikTiger Thanks, it sounds plausible. Wikipedia says only 16% of Lend-Lease came before 1943 so that's consistent with your statement.
@@raylopez99 how do you know if any of this is true ? He mentioned the ghost of Kiev shooting down Russian planes. That footage was from a video game . Admitted by the video game producers . If he is trying to substantiate his unverified claims by using video games as a source he has lost the plot . This channel is make believe
4.6 thousand people are believing this nonsense lol . If Russia’s military is so poor Nato would engage them . Instead they do nothing . That should speak for itself
@@trevorcrook5753 Fog of war. You have to take information as possible truth, possible lies. Some analysts (the American CZcamsr Chris Chappy, "Task and Purpose") claim that Russia in fact is not that far behind in their schedule (but they are behind) while others, more optimistic, say Russia is badly being beaten. Just like Vietnam, Afghanistan (both sides), Iraq, Nicaragua, the guerilla has an advantage if the population is willing to fight and die. We'll see and I wish the Ukrainians good luck as well as western high-tech weapons.
Great video as always, Alex👍 Lots of russian avia & tank simps are very upset
It his hard to believe this when the news here in the west is being censored about Ukraine losses and/or Russian victories. You do know the ghost of Ukraine story is 100% fake. I’m not Russian or a simp but one sided info propaganda doesn’t make for great analysis.
@@roggie77777 LOL! Ok, I've got just one question that DESTROYS this narrative. If Russia doesn't have air superiority in Ukraine then why the heck does Zelenskiy beg for more fighter jets and SAM-systems from the west, why does he beg NATO for a no-fly zone?
@@SovietRussianBear So Ukrainian cities next to the border with Russia and Belarus couldn't be bombed cause right now, Russia keeps its wings close to the border. Also jets would allow Ukraine to inflict even more damage on already embarrassed Russian military. Russia haven't launched a large scale air operation that would easily cripple Ukrainian forces because it can't. Ukraine has Starstreak, Stinger and can still employ drones effectively and we already seen Russian jets, helis and SAMS being destroyed. Cope. Seethe.
@@moritzannoys If Ukraine Ministry of Defense is your source of information then I'm not coping, I'm LOLing! 😂😂😂 Keep believing these fiction tellers, maybe you think the "ghost of Kyiv" was real?🤣🤣
@@SovietRussianBear Russian simps using projection to admit they themselves are victims of propaganda continues unabated.
Wow. A nuanced analysis. So refreshing…
Having recently lived in Moscow for 15 years, I can say I'm not impressed with the Russian Army in general. Every August 2 they have Russian Paratrooper Day. Thousands of horribly drunk paratroopers staggering around the streets, parks, metro. Passed out in the streets. Destroying property. Wearing those ridiculous blue and white striped sleeveless t-shirts. If this is the best their army can offer, it's no wonder Ukraine has held out for so long.
That kinda answers my question about the Russian Military. I guess the "Wokeness" has found its way into their Army as well.
It's a hard life in that harsh climate. Can't blame them for letting loose. Maybe you just think that because their culture makes it's so public. Pretty much every single military group parties their ass off when off duty--this is a cross cultural norm across the world.
That is only the top of the iceberg
From a Russian point of view, no Russian wants to serve in the army for bunch of diffrent reasons
Never recruits are usually bullied by older recruits, tho its noting new in any military, Russia military takes it to a new low
Never recruits rarely ever go out on stuff they actually meant to train for like war/conflict rather they work for corrupt officials, makes huts and houses
Unless ur out in the field and lucky enough to get an MRE thats not expired, The Russian army generally have terrible food.
Its so bad most Russians view any medical conditions to be able to avoid military service as a blessing.
I once watch a movie about a Russian manufacture plant that made limos for the political elite.
For what i could remember, it tok that factory half a year to make 1 limo
Great job buddy. I really enjoyed this video.
Thanks, man!
Nice work. I wonder if you agree that things like the Turkish Bayraktar drone are opening a new field for less-than-superpower budget forces - being comparatively inexpensive to operate, and fairly hard to detect and/or destroy. With superpowers thus far reluctant to engage directly, will we see more middle budget systems like these, or extrapolations like larger drone forces or drone carriers?
Nicely balanced article. Thanks Alex
Russia is dependant in old Soviet technology, and moreover, Putin has not expected about sending his airforce because he did not expect Ukraine would resist so great by far.
Russia buys the same western technology as China, most of it is made there. They also had access to all the top Taiwanese production until the sanctions. Intel tried to threaten China over human rights, but would lose too much money.
Whenever I see the video of that helicopter getting shot down at low altitude by a stinger missile all I keep on thinking about is I just watched the last five seconds of at least one persons life.
The same thought crossed my mind. Terribly sad to witness young lives being wasted.
Such is war. Even as this particular war continues drawing in more money and spilling more blood we live at a time when historically little blood is spilled in war and this war won't change that trend.
Totally agree, these young people who die on both sides are the the victims of Putin’s war. I want Ukraine to “win”(there are never any true winners in war) with all my heart, but this is tragic for all involved.
I'll rather see 100k Russian soldiers killed than a single Ukrainian, as long as they are on foreign soil.
The Russian people can stop this now and get their boys home, if they man up and protest large scale.
The genocide must stop.
Of a murderer’s life?
Got my sub for objective info.keep up the good work
Thanks for the vid, I was wondering "what took them so long" !
excellent material mate. what a great sum-up
The first obviously weird thing that anyone can see is a lot of old, outdated equipment from Russia. Is this because they're confident that these equipment are enough? Is this because Russia wants to hold their advanced weaponry in case of a NATO attack? Is this because Russia actually doesn't have advanced weaponry in any meaningful numbers, as this video explains?
Secondly, you have to wonder how much NATO is actually being involved, despite nominally not being involved. It's almost without question that the entire Ukrainian airspace (and beyond) is under constant surveillance by NATO assets, and just passing some of that info to the Ukrainians would have been a tremendous advantage. Of course, you'd expect Russia to deploy ECMs, but how effective those are goes back to the first question.
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I do think that media overblowing the military prowess of Russia/China is also what US arms dealers want to see. After all, a sense of threat and danger is what drives funds into new weapons development and procurement. Now that Russia is exposed as being a paper tiger, China will take its place as the premiere threat and not much will change.
Also, It's always very handy to adversaries under estimate you. As a westerner I'd rather have adversaries be cautious enough by what I have but also be more capable than they know. So I think the US military industry likes to be "under estimated" to a certain degree.
Do you honestly imagine that NATO is not involved? Elon Musk did something to thwart Russia's effort to turn off internet in Ukraine. All across the world, individuals and governments are helping Ukraine, sometimes not publicly. Even China spoke a word of disapproval about this "war".
@Jerome Barry I agree US and Nato are way more involved than people think but they can't tell us for good reason.
As someone once said...Russia has a large modern military but the large is not modern and the modern is not large.
@@Mr.Wonderful731 Exactly. The good reason is "fear".
Outstanding job , very well articulated very well put together
I was highly skeptical about these so called "hyper-sonic" missiles. Thank you for blowing the smoke away from these bogie men.
The analysis we need but don't deserve.
I have been up close to much of the equipment types as seen on the ground. Quarter inch plate on APCs, Weld gaps I cap stick my finger through on tanks. A lot of the kit is tired and is suffering from parking lot rot. 5 year expired rations. The old red army is 80% scrap. I would rather be in a Centurion with a ceramic package,
Centurions in Ukraine with Hawker Hunters for ground attack and EEL's on CAP mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm 😎😎👍👍
"5 year expired rations."
Apparently, it's up to 7 years - some of the rations Ukrainians captured alongside Russian POWs have expired in 2015.
@@roadent217 The Russians actually have rations???
@@pebo8306 yeah, but they left it unopened. Because they didn’t want to eat it.
@@fairybeliever5599 There is that guy Steve1989mreinfo---he literally eats everything!🤣😂🤣
Nice to see someone actually address this. I've been following the Russian "rebuild" since maybe...2008-2010-ish? Their inability to buy their own goods stems back a long way. The "best" versions of the MiG-29 and Su-27 platforms etc. were often export-only options, and not something Russia purchased for themselves (much in the same way we don't tend to buy the mega-capable latest F-16's while our Middle Eastern customers do). I am curious what impact their practice in Syria had on the Ukraine fumbling.
Thoughtful and well researched. Excellent.
Propaganda
I remember reading one of the first examples of Reflexive control though I don’t think it had a populate name in the West then. Back in the 70’s when Egypt was pro USSR, the Russian flew a fighter at Mach 2 (I think it was) and the USA was all up in arms to develop fighters that fast. Basically the fighters engines were destroyed and I was only a stunt to prove air superiority of Soviet aircraft.
The plane can do a short flight at Mach 1.2 each day for 90 days then major service is required.
Or it can do 90 minutes at Mach 2 and the major service is required tomorrow.
I think you might be thinking of the MiG-25. Which was likely unintentional misinformation.
The F-15 was massively overspec'ed because it was built to match the MiG-25 as America perceived it. The US knew it was fast as hell. And from seeing it, we could tell it had huge engines and huge wings. Therefore, we concluded that this thing must be an incredibly agile MONSTER in a dogfight.
It was only as the Eagle entered service that we learned the Foxbat was incredibly heavy due to it's steel construction, and built for high-speed interceptor duties rather than dogfights. The closest counterpart in the US wound up actually being the cancelled YF-12 Blackbird variant(in that it was not very maneuverable but capable of reaching incredible speed and altitude).
The "bomber gap" is a great example of intentional misinformation backfiring horribly. The Soviet Union went to great effort to impress on America how mighty their air force was and how many bombers they had, in the belief it would scare the US into backing off. It was, as we now know, a tremendous bluff. They never had the number of bombers the US believed.
But instead of turning tail, America engaged in a MASSIVE defense spending campaign to "close the bomber gap" and build up a force to match the perceived russian might. And the soviets were just stuck going "Wait, that wasn't supposed to happen."
There are lessons to be learned, but we shouldn’t become complacent because of this current conflict.
Always the Best content AnyWhere.
Thanks!
A nations strength is not in the sharpness of her military but in the determination of her citizens.
Thank you. Very informative and seems well balanced comments.
Great video, thanks!
Great perspective! Wonderful
Very good analysis, thanks!
How do you know it’s true ..
@@trevorcrook5753 I guess I don't for sure; but I've seen a number of experts, both in credible positions and on the ground who are all coming up with virtually the same conclusions, and no one is disputing their reports. How many more people do I have to listen to, when they are all arriving at the same conclusions?
When talking about theoretical stuff, or more simply, stuff that exists on paper, Russia has for a very long time, produced some great, some groundbreaking, and some (like the work that essentially laid the theoretical underpinning of modern stealth aircraft) which are true gamechangers.
Thankfully their ability to use that stuff in a practical sense, is not the best. As I would not say it is a stretch to believe that they are actually ahead on the theoretical/on paper aspects of at least some things.
This has also shown that the US would absolutely dominate an air war against Russia should it happen! Our experience in a 20 year war over the last 20 years has also given our pilots ample experience, soenthing the Russians and Chinese completely lack.
man you have not figth an enemi air force in the last 20 years
Nice channel and content along with narration 👍
Excellent analysis. Well researched and reasoned.
I'm a week from being 73 years old; In my youth some 65 years ago, I read a book titled, "The Mouse That Roard". And though it didn't state it, after reading it, I assumed it was in regards to Russia. Apparently, as its recently been proven when a country with the assumed might of Russia, has been met with such opposition of such a small country as it has.
I loved the Peter Sellers/Ealing Comedy film, is that from the book?
According to Western, not Russian, media, there has been a 40-mile long convoy of Russian tanks and Russian trucks stationed outside Kiev for more than a week. Now a stationed convoy, is supposed to be the ideal military target for bombing. Yet nobody has touched them. So much for the Russians supposedly not having "air superiority".
Small country??? Ukraine is nearly twice as big as Germany!
Ukraine is not small country. It is biggest Europe country.
I work in sustainment for a big US defense company. A lot of people have no idea how important sustainment is. It's just as important as production. You can build up a fleet all you want, but if you can't sustain it then things will fail very quickly once you decide to use that fleet.
Great work 👏
The ghost of Kiev turned out to be fake
I saw a photo of wheeled vehicles with a staggering number of flat tires. The thinking was that the Russian Generals just might have skimmed money for themselves instead of replacing tires on vehicles.
If Russias nuclear missiles are anything like their ground forces, they'll have to take a three day break on the way to their target. Slava Ukraini
@@toddr2265 the scary part of that is that if the targeting and guidance systems are as bad as we think the rest of Soviet equipment is , then those missiles could land almost anywhere
@@outinthesticks1035 in a nato territory ,!!
@@pizann350 yes , but not necessarily any where close to a military target
@@outinthesticks1035 If they go off! I'm serious. I can see leaks, dead rusty electrical systems, control rooms where nothing works. Kinda like them old movies with the fake computers.🤣
Thank you
WOW! Enlightening!
the guy quotes the Ghost of Kiev, there he lost all his reputation.
I remember watching the night time attacks on Baghdad at the start of Desert Storm. That was air superiority! The Russians look like amateurs in comparison. That's the difference between an armed force in a democratic country that discus several strategies and prepare properly and a country run by a dictator surrounded by yes men that only have one strategy and that is the boss' strategy. Glory to Ukraine!
russians dont want to destroy the country with airstrikes.makes me laugh when you talk about desert storm you were fighting a third world country.its like having a 30 year beating down a 12 year old boy and then saying look how good i am.russia used airpower in syria and destroyed isis.the americans can learn from this operation.also do you know america has never one a war on its own
@@frankrenda2519 when you are considered the 4th largest army in the world and have oil refinery in control then you are not considered as 3rd world country.
@Michael Hill Hi Micheal, they don't even have to learn to spell, just how to use Spellcheck or Grammarly.
Can they be bothered, can they F**k.
@Michael Hill And punctuate. And use "a" and "an." Typical Russian with rudimentary English skills.
@@frankrenda2519 Frank, study up my man, you're being played!
Excellent information, great video.
Great post!
Maybe the Russian pilots don’t necessarily have their hearts in the battle.
Better educated and more aware of geopolitical affairs than the general landlubbers , they’re not happy to kill their close cousins.
Maybe?
Something most people are missing
Without a doubt, you have to believe in what you are doing. Fighting for your life or going to a fight because the big man said so.
I found this extremely informative and thought provoking. It suggests Putin relies heavily on misinformation and bluff, which aligns perfectly with his public persona. It also suggests that US control of the skies over Ukraine might not be such a bad idea. Push come to shove, Putin may get cold feet if faced with the full force of US power.
it's a huge mistake to think that just because Russia can't invade Europe right now it won't do it in the future. putin clearly stated that everything east of Germany belongs to Russia, and you think he is just saying that for attention, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Thats why we should cram as much military as possible into those countries.
Putin will die of old age at least before Russia will be able to recoup it's strength to ever again think of assaulting Eastern Europe. I think that the Ukrainians themselves may chew up a couple decades worth of Russian military production at the rate Russia's going to be able to accomplish after their economy is ground to dust.
Well said Alex. Most people are armchair pilots or generals. Weapon ideas are rarely brought to fruition. My fav was the mini mlrs. It was a backpack 🎒 and launch four mini missiles
Excellent analysis. Thanks