Investigating the Accuracy of College Football Recruiting Rankings
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- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
- Every year, several recruiting sites (247 Sports, Rivals, ESPN) release their recruiting rankings…but, just how accurate are these rankings?
How good are we at predicting potential?
This…was a project. I spent weeks (with the friendly help of others) building spreadsheets full of prior recruiting years (2-5 Stars with Rivals and 247Sports). We used Rivals for the All-Pro examination, as many of the players that are All-Pro’s from the last decade predated 247Sports.
For the draft accuracy, we examined 247Sports, as this was fresher data coming from what most would consider the most accurate (we used their composite rankings).
Let me know your thoughts! Always appreciate feedback…hope you enjoy.
Check out my previous video analyzing the NFL Draft: • You Will Never Look at...
00:00 Predicting Potential
01:27 Recruiting…is Weird
04:35 Long-term Analysis
13:10 NFL Draft Accuracy
15:10 Correlation to Winning
With the quality of what you've been putting out, you sure deserve more subscribers. The research, the presentation, the graphs, the editing, the narration, all top notch. I'm commenting to hopefully trigger the algorithm to recommend you to more people. Keep it up!
Thank you! Much appreciated...
@@michaelmackelvie Keep going. I'm not sure how inspiring one CZcams comment can be, but this video is the one that finally compelled me to subscribe. Your videos are novel and cover subjects I've continually thought don't receive nearly enough retrospective coverage considering the depth of coverage they're afforded initially.
He’ll get there. He has the whole package. Got a great voice, presentation and interesting content.
@@michaelmackelvielove your content. The sport insights are great
It found me
I played at a P5 program and went there in large part because of my future teammate/roommate. He was a future NFL stud in my eyes, but turned out to be one of those overrated 18 year olds. We had a long talk one night about why it ended the way it did.
He was a coaches dream in T-shirt and shorts and that’s why he was a 5-star. Tall, stout, rocket for an arm, accurate, great footwork, and ran a 4.6.
In college, he couldn’t process fast enough and that alone was enough to kill everything. In meetings he’d see it all but in games he’d get stuck on reads, not make proper calls pre snap to post snap.
So if that’s from HS to college then I can only imagine what it’s like at the qb position from college to the NFL.
Dang really cool perspective thanks for sharing
as an eagles fan and jalen hurts lover, i'm scared this is what he is
@@yawn1025 I feel like the issue was just bad playcalling. You don’t suddenly go from great to terrible for no reason. And the past season has shown that Steichen is a great play caller, so hurts was great. And Johnson was a terrible play caller, so hurts wasn’t very good
Did your friend go on to coach? He sounds like he had a head for film analysis.
@@jemiller226 Left the game behind and went into finance. He thought about coaching but it's a grind to start your career.
As a rivals employee, this was excellently done.
y’all suck at scouting
@@satisfactorsI think literally anyone would. NFL GMs suck at scouting
@@satisfactorsyou wish u had his job 😅
And yet those ratings are for college football saying this person should be able to play day one
You guys were so easy to kick the shit out of. Mike Farrel and his ghost writers were absolutely horrible.
The QB findings are in line with what we've been tracing for 7 years. The needs of a QB in college are considerably different than the NFL.
Needs of the team were different
Aka Johnny Manziel
There is so much more space for improv in college. Players aren't as good and qbs can run around while players get open because they aren't getting closed down
Exactly what I think. COLLEGE recruiters should be judged on COLLEGE success not NFL because that's basically irrelevant to them
If I were an NFL GM, 95 times out of 100, I wouldn't take a QB in the 1st round, especially if the team s*cked. Would probably favor edge rushers instead.
Amazing work again. Really appreciate the level of research and analysis.
Thank you my friend!
Really helps pull back a layer on how corrupt the entire college football conglomerate has become. Sad
You’re a great editor and presenter. My favorite kind of sports content
Thank you my man!
Any other channels you recommend? Love these kind of videos
@@willcarroll9762john bois
Bro, can't imagine all the work behind this videos. Data analysis is always very time consuming. And then producing these amazing videos, and scripting the story behind it. Amazing work! keep it up
The graphics were also top notch. I had to pause the video at several points to enjoy them.
They analysed the wrong data though 🤦♂️
This is why the transfer portal will only make the rich get richer because the big programs can now scout players at positions that are a crap shoot to scout in highschool further along in their development, and poach them from smaller schools. The big schools have always had an advantage in recruiting great defensive linemen and running backs, but there was less of a difference at the positions that require intangibles. Not anymore.
I agree, but also the transfer portal will allow someone like an Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen who never got viability of their game in HS to shine in JuCo and get easier opportunities in NCAA. Also much easier for players who need more years of playtime and exposure to get them.
Think how crazy it is that if neither of them hustled like crazy people to get any kind of NCAA offer they would have never even sniffed an NFL field.
It also means that if a school wants to elevate themselves overnight they can…like right now NYS and SUNY doesn’t have a team in a mainstream conference. UB is the flagship but stuck in the MAC. Assuming Albany wasn’t corrupt and SUNY started spending money to enhance their flagship, they could now change the team overnight into every other flagship program like Rutgers or Penn State.
Small schools SHOULD act like feeder programs for larger schools, while larger schools with deep pockets have the opportunity to build teams.
I think the transfer reform a win win all around.
While I agree with your point about smaller schools getting their players poached.. we can all agree that a group of 5 team up until maybe, this new 12 team format, never had a chance to compete with the top power 5 programs poaching in the first place.
This does however, open opportunity up to middle tier power 5 programs that want to take the next step. My Missouri Tigers are a perfect example. 0 bowl wins since 2015. Commit to the portal, invest millions into your program, lobby to pass a state law allowing you to pay HS commits to win in state recruiting battles, and before you know it you’re beating the blue blood Ohio State in a N6 Bowl and picked to make the playoffs in 2025. The group of 5 schools really are getting the worst of this all though.
The bench players for the big programs will leave in droves though
@@jonathanpusar5931By the gods how I hate NFL and it’s fans trying to say how college should be.
👿 Go stanford
What you said about RBs is why I think the rookie pay scale should be adjusted for the RB position.
Whereas everyone else is expected to start lower & get that big pay day after their rookie deal, I believe it should be the opposite for RBs. They are used & abused early on, then discarded before they make it to that first big contract.
Teams ride them as hard as they can for those first 4-5 seasons, then cut their losses & replace them once their rookie deal is up. Every other position has a much better chance of getting that first big pay day, just as players enter their prime. But the "prime" for most RBs is those first years, and few teams would shell out big money for a guy that was already heavily used for 4-5 straight seasons.
Corey I have said this my friend! They take the most abuse and are getting paid the least…idk if there’s an answer, but I have proposed the same hypothetical. Not sure if it’d pencil out…
@michaelmackelvie Thinking back on it, I may have heard you talk about this before. Maybe I stumbled across your videos before & didn't realize it, but you may be the one that convinced this needs to change.
My idea is that rookie running backs get a player option going into year 3. If they want to stay with their original team, they can stay for the full contract, but if they’ve become an elite RB, they get the opportunity to test the open market at 24 instead of 26/27.
This was true 20 years ago when backs regularly averaged 350+ totes a season.
Now they're barely averaging 250+ with only the quality backs or completely run-oriented teams giving a back in the area of 300 rushes. Unless your Derrick Henry or a CMC you'll be lucky to tote the rock 350 times a year both rushing and receiving.
As it stands outside of injuries teams don't do RB1 85% of the time now unless they can run, block and catch passes at a pro level. Most backs coming out of college can barely do two of the three at a pro-level at best. 3-down backs are rare enough already but a 3-down back that has all-pro levels of talent? Thats why most get discarded after their rookie deals cause for a situational player you can just draft one or sign one for cheap. The majority of whom are dime a dozen runners who don't provide anything in the passing game. This is why the Steelers will let Najee Harris walk at the end of his contract and fill his void with draftees and free agent signees.
I also like the idea of paying running backs higher on their rookie deals. That being said, the NFL teams will do some shady stuff like claim this dude is a linebacker or tight end, but play him as a running back.
Incredible in-depth analysis, and the previous video looking into the NFL draft is a great compliment to this. Keep up the good work I look forward to seeing more!
From the concepts & analysis to the script & writing to the production & editing, this channel would be impressive as a prime time network show. The use of a critical & analytical approach applied equally to sports & finance offers an outstanding opportunity to demonstrate how this method can work in wildly different fields. This project is going to take off & rightfully so. I’m excited to see what’s in store.
Thank you! I really appreciate that my friend!
The way you delivered this information and the general depth of the research is amazing. I've just found your page but I know I'll be watching a lot more of your videos from here on out. There is an art to delivering somewhat dense analytics and you sir do it with a finesse!
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Michael, your content is legitimately the only channel I've been able to watch the entire video without stopping. So compelling, so powerful, insightful and just the perfect amount of humor. PLEASE keep educating us like this
Truly fantastic analysis. Not many people put out content like this, and it's honestly a great watch every time you post a new video. Thank you for your insight, and keep up the great work!
These videos deserve a bigger audience, can tell the work that goes in!
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Excellent work as always. The stop motion was the cherry on top.
There has never been a better video on the subject. Fantastic job!
Never watched a video until today, just sent it to a few people around a college scouting department. High quality work that I think we can look at and really learn something from.
Subscribed, a fun presentation and also very insightful. 👍
Great video! I had a couple things I was going to mention before I watched it, but I waited and you addressed both of them! Very entertaining!
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Great production value in this. Top tier narration, music, lighting, pacing, etc
Glad this popped into my feed….High quality stuff with solid analytics…Subscribed!
WOW, that was fricken awesome, gotta love ur content!!
Awesome content! So many variables in recruiting certain positions
A great as always. Love the data. Love the analysis. Keep the charts coming!
Quality stuff as usual. You'll become HUGE in the CZcams Sports Analysis field in no time!
This channel is one of the best on the YT. From my experience with some of the writers and evaluators it’s more about relationships ( with the HS coach, the top kids handler & college recruiters) than actually being accurate. Also if a kid has an offer and he goes to a camp that the press is attending, the writers will pump him up. This leads to more top kids showing up, the more top kids the more not top kids equals more money and eyes on the website. I have read and seen scouting sites down grade a kid for not going to a camp….. even say some of their offers were not real.
I don’t comment on many youtube videos but I have to mention how well done this video is. It’s something I would expect a highly popular channel to put out and you deserve that for sure if you continue this!
"Being an overrated 18 year old shouldn't be viewed as a character defect" is an absolutely savage line to end this video on, well done!
This was an extremely well done video. Great job!
These videos are so insightful and well written, keep it up!
Now thats a high quality video roght there. Great soundtrack, buttery smooth voice, an interesting title and an incredible amount if legwork. Looking forward to kore videos
This channel is super underrated! Would love to see a video on conference realignment
Thanks Andrew!
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A question I have wondered about for a long time. Beautifully done.
I think football is a lot more difficult to predict on a player to player basis. The 5 star high schooler probably didn’t have any injuries, but once you make it to college, careers do end there and in the nfl. Rankings can’t account for that. Also, the mental part, the pressure, or the lack of ridicule at the lower levels can hamper players success when they meet it in college and pros. Adding the element of money also changes ppls drives. The reason I’m guessing a lot of guys who were low or undrafted succeed because of the financial opportunity while others may make their money and coast. Not all just some. Also, how someone’s body matures after 18 is also not predictable which all adds up to make sense why not incredibly accurate
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Thank you, much appreciated!
@@michaelmackelvieBy any chance do you know the song used from 1:00 to 1:25 ? it's super hype
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You've become my fav youtuber recently, if only people knew what they're missing ! Hoping you get the recognition you deserve soon.
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Just watched all of your videos and subscribed. Appreciate your insights and investigative approach, thanks!
Thanks James!
Very well put together video, great work!
Keep up the work. Videos with production like this keep people engaged throughout and lead to more likes, views, subs, etc. You’re headed up
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And this video is a great concept to look into.
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Really love/appreciate the work that you do and the amount of time you put in to produce these awesome videos. Research/data aside, the snippet between 1:00 and 1:25 gave me the chills, and manages to perfectly convey the aura that is CFB.
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@@rayzeusmusic What song is it ?
@@islandpenguin5056 my president is black by young jeezy
Yeah I was wondering too what song is that they’re playing in the montage?
@@islandpenguin5056 sorry thought I replied. It’s my president is black by young Jeezy.
Dude I just found your channel and I have been watching tons of your videos now. Not only is the quality of your videos amazing, but the topics you pick are unique and interesting.
Thank you!
Please keep these NFL evaluation videos going. They're awesome!
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I DEFINITELY needed this. I’m working on a project of ranking all FBS & FCS teams together for the 2023 season. All D1 ranking w/ new strength of schedules elements and everything
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Thank you for the kind words!
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Thanks Bryan! Much appreciated man.
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As someone who enjoys data science and College Football (especially recruiting), this is an amazing video. I might just subscribe
The video editing is incredible, and I love the videos. However if I could give one note (from just my opinion, I can't speak for others) but there's a lot of building up and epic shots. In those situations, you could just give a few extra seconds for people to digest the grandeur of the scene. Even right at the start (0:40, 1:09, etc) there's some scenes where slowing it down for a second could make things more dramatic. just my 2c, love your videos and the quality of the visuals, and your voice! keep it up❤
The best creator on this app. It's unbelievable how under the radar you're flying -- a mix of KTO and JxmmyHighroller, but smarter. Great stuff please keep it up!!
Absolutely the best video I’ve ever seen on college football rankings
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Thank you!
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Thank you!
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Much appreciated my friend!
Hope you have a lot of success in your future that video was great.